000
FXUS65 KABQ 241751
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN IMPACT WINDOW FOR AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN NM. CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM WILL BE UNDER VFR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME
LATE DAY VIRGA AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATELY HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NMRS
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AFT
22Z. GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS BASED ON ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AND SPC
WILL BE OVER THE NE PLAINS FROM NEAR KRTN AND KLVS EAST TO
THE TX STATE LINE...HOWEVER SOME MODELS SUGGEST NEARLY ALL OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOME THREAT. MODELS DO DISAGREE
WITH HOW LONG PRECIP WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST AND WHETHER OR NOT
AN MVFR LOW CLOUD LAYER WILL SET UP FROM THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE TO HOLD PREDOMINANT GROUP FOR BKN025
IN TAFS IS AT KTCC AND KROW. GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013...
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGE MAKING ROADS
RATHER FAR WESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE LAST
NIGHT. DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT JUMPED FROM 5F TO 41F IN AN
HOUR AND CURRENTLY STANDS AT 49F. EXPECTING THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO MIX OUT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF MORE THAN
JUST A VERY SHALLOW PUSH...POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO GET A HIGH
BASED SHOWER OR TWO GOING AS FAR WEST AS THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE EAST
SLOPES...A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS. MODELS INDICATING FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO CHAVES COUNTY.
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE FAVORED
AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE EASTERN PLAINS...IN GENERAL...THE FAVORITE AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WESTWARD
PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE DIVIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE JEMEZ...SANDIA...MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL START TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM THE WEST. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
FOR BOTH DAYS BUT STILL COMING IN WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TUESDAY AND PASS SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THE COOLER AND `WETTER`
DIRECTION AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED CONSENSUS. 33
.FIRE WEATHER...
...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE PUSHING A TAD FURTHER EAST EACH DAY. POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUMS WILL CHARACTERIZE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ACTS AS FUEL FOR WETTING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STRONGLY CONTRASTED AIRMASSES...
GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY...BUT
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS STAYING ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY CENTRAL AND
WEST...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE DISCRETE NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
WINDS ALOFT PICK-UP A TAD ON SUNDAY AND THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE FURTHER EAST...BRINGING CRITICAL HUMIDITIES TO NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY ACROSS ZONES
103...104 AND 107.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE TRENDS DOWN
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER
OUR AREA...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE 12Z
RUN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS...SO WON`T DISCOUNT IT. SO...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY...DECREASING CONFIDENCE
TUESDAY...THEN AT LEAST SOME HOPE FOR WETTING RAINS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 241149 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KLVS...KTCC
AND KROW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATER TODAY...BUT
SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...MOST LIKELY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ALTHOUGH
NOT CURRENTLY IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR KLVS...KTCC AND KROW
FOR LATE TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON WHICH AREAS RECEIVE RAINFALL. A MODERATE SSW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR
30KTS BY AFTERNOON.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013...
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGE MAKING ROADS
RATHER FAR WESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE LAST
NIGHT. DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT JUMPED FROM 5F TO 41F IN AN
HOUR AND CURRENTLY STANDS AT 49F. EXPECTING THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO MIX OUT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF MORE THAN
JUST A VERY SHALLOW PUSH...POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO GET A HIGH
BASED SHOWER OR TWO GOING AS FAR WEST AS THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE EAST
SLOPES...A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS. MODELS INDICATING FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO CHAVES COUNTY.
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE FAVORED
AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE EASTERN PLAINS...IN GENERAL...THE FAVORITE AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WESTWARD
PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE DIVIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE JEMEZ...SANDIA...MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL START TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM THE WEST. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
FOR BOTH DAYS BUT STILL COMING IN WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TUESDAY AND PASS SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THE COOLER AND `WETTER`
DIRECTION AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED CONSENSUS.
33
.FIRE WEATHER...
...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE PUSHING A TAD FURTHER EAST EACH DAY. POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUMS WILL CHARACTERIZE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ACTS AS FUEL FOR WETTING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STRONGLY CONTRASTED AIRMASSES...
GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY...BUT
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS STAYING ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY CENTRAL AND
WEST...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE DISCRETE NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
WINDS ALOFT PICK-UP A TAD ON SUNDAY AND THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE FURTHER EAST...BRINGING CRITICAL HUMIDITIES TO NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY ACROSS ZONES
103...104 AND 107.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE TRENDS DOWN
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER
OUR AREA...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE 12Z
RUN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS...SO WON`T DISCOUNT IT. SO...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY...DECREASING CONFIDENCE
TUESDAY...THEN AT LEAST SOME HOPE FOR WETTING RAINS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 240932
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGE MAKING ROADS
RATHER FAR WESTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE LAST
NIGHT. DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT JUMPED FROM 5F TO 41F IN AN
HOUR AND CURRENTLY STANDS AT 49F. EXPECTING THE INCREASED LOW
LEVEL GULF MOISTURE OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO MIX OUT BY MID
TO LATE MORNING BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATIVE OF MORE THAN
JUST A VERY SHALLOW PUSH...POSSIBLY BEING ENOUGH TO GET A HIGH
BASED SHOWER OR TWO GOING AS FAR WEST AS THE WEST-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED UP AGAINST THE EAST
SLOPES...A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY HAVE A CHANCE AT PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS. MODELS INDICATING FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EASTWARD INTO CHAVES COUNTY.
STRONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THE FAVORED
AREA FOR STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
THE EASTERN PLAINS...IN GENERAL...THE FAVORITE AREA FOR AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS.
SIMILAR WEATHER SCENARIO ON TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WESTWARD
PUSH OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE DIVIDE...WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE JEMEZ...SANDIA...MANZANO AND GALLINAS MOUNTAINS.
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL START TO DRY THINGS
OUT FROM THE WEST. STRONG LEE SIDE TROUGHING ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD MAKE FOR A BREEZY TO WINDY AND VERY WARM
MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
FOR BOTH DAYS BUT STILL COMING IN WITH TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY.
MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
STATE TUESDAY AND PASS SLOWLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST IN THE COOLER AND `WETTER`
DIRECTION AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED CONSENSUS.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...
A TALE OF TWO AIRMASSES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
DRYLINE PUSHING A TAD FURTHER EAST EACH DAY. POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUMS WILL CHARACTERIZE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ACTS AS FUEL FOR WETTING
THUNDERSTORMS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO STRONGLY CONTRASTED AIRMASSES...
GENERALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY...BUT
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL NOT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS STAYING ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY CENTRAL AND
WEST...BUT SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. WETTING RAINS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND OVER THE ADJACENT HIGHLANDS. HOWEVER...WETTING RAINS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD DUE TO THE DISCRETE NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
WINDS ALOFT PICK-UP A TAD ON SUNDAY AND THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE FURTHER EAST...BRINGING CRITICAL HUMIDITIES TO NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUNDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY ACROSS ZONES
103...104 AND 107.
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE TRENDS DOWN
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP WITH
THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE 00Z GFS IS SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT OVER
OUR AREA...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONTINUING THE TREND FROM THE 12Z
RUN SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL AZ BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE
CLOSED LOW SOLUTION DOES HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM SOME OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS...SO WON`T DISCOUNT IT. SO...RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY...DECREASING CONFIDENCE
TUESDAY...THEN AT LEAST SOME HOPE FOR WETTING RAINS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
11
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INFILTRATING THE STATE FROM THE
EAST...AND SOME STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY 24/0800UTC. SOME
BRIEF DOWNPOURS...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE IN
THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS DOWNWIND
OF GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 86 48 86 49 / 5 0 5 0
DULCE........................... 80 38 80 36 / 10 5 10 5
CUBA............................ 83 43 83 43 / 10 5 10 5
GALLUP.......................... 82 42 83 42 / 5 0 5 5
EL MORRO........................ 79 39 79 36 / 5 0 5 5
GRANTS.......................... 85 45 85 44 / 10 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 82 46 82 46 / 5 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 86 42 87 42 / 5 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 71 40 74 40 / 10 10 10 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 79 53 79 56 / 30 10 10 5
PECOS........................... 76 50 77 52 / 40 10 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 42 78 43 / 10 10 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 67 42 68 43 / 50 20 30 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 33 71 31 / 50 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 81 44 81 40 / 10 10 10 5
MORA............................ 74 47 77 47 / 60 40 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 85 49 85 49 / 10 10 5 10
SANTA FE........................ 78 51 78 53 / 30 10 20 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 51 85 50 / 20 10 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 58 87 59 / 20 10 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 59 89 59 / 20 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 54 91 55 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 57 90 56 / 10 5 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 90 57 90 56 / 10 5 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 56 90 55 / 20 5 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 94 59 95 59 / 10 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 82 52 82 52 / 30 20 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 83 53 84 54 / 30 10 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 84 50 85 51 / 30 10 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 51 82 51 / 50 20 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 84 54 84 54 / 30 10 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 86 54 86 54 / 20 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 78 52 77 53 / 40 20 30 10
CAPULIN......................... 74 51 80 51 / 40 30 30 10
RATON........................... 80 48 86 46 / 50 30 20 10
SPRINGER........................ 79 49 84 48 / 40 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 78 50 80 50 / 60 30 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 81 57 88 58 / 40 30 30 20
ROY............................. 77 53 83 53 / 40 30 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 84 59 88 58 / 30 30 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 85 60 87 60 / 40 30 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 87 62 91 64 / 40 30 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 82 58 83 57 / 40 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 83 61 84 60 / 40 30 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 86 61 87 61 / 30 30 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 90 63 91 61 / 30 20 30 10
PICACHO......................... 87 56 86 57 / 30 20 30 20
ELK............................. 82 54 83 56 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 240536
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INFILTRATING THE STATE FROM THE
EAST...AND SOME STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SLOWLY WORK THEIR WAY
OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE BY 24/0800UTC. SOME
BRIEF DOWNPOURS...HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER THE STORMS DISSIPATE IN
THE NORTHEAST AND ALSO INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PLAINS BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS DOWNWIND
OF GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...954 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
SHOWERS AND STORMS PROPAGATING NWD INTO NE NM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SE
WINDS BLOWING AT KSAF WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DWPT AND KABX
VELOCITY PRODUCT SHOWERS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE ABQ
METRO PRIOR TO 11PM-MIDNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE RAISED POPS IN NE
NM AS WELL AS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAISED SOME
MIN TEMPS CENTRAL AND EAST AND ADJUSTED WINDS. ALSO SPREAD SOME
ISOLD POPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WHERE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
A CELL OR TWO DEVELOPING. ZFP ALREADY OUT.
.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
FINALLY SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY AND VERY WARM WITH GUSTY WINDS.
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CLOVIS AND MELROSE AND WEST TO
LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS BUT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS
MOVED BACK EAST OF LVS AND CQC WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING AGAIN. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S...ARE HUGGING THE NM...TX BORDER AND
NE NM. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AND MENTION POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC GUIDANCE. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
CWA CURRENTLY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BACK TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE A SEEPAGE OF EAST CANYON
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD MIX OUT BY FRIDAY PM BUT DECIDED TO PUT A FEW DRY STORMS IN
FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...PARTLY BASED ON SPC LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
ALSO UNSTABLE EVEN OVER THE WEST FRIDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BEST
POPS FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORMS NEAR THE TX BORDER. CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY IN THE WEST...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE SPRINKLES IN THE JEMEZ.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS INTENSITY. WILL
ONLY CARRY ISOLATED POPS EVEN NEAR THE TX BORDER. A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE WEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
FOR THE EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NEAR
THE TX BORDER AND A DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NM TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME COOLING IN THE NW
AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO HANG OUT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING IN WESTERN NM ALONG THE AZ BORDER WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
INTO THE 30`S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY
WINDS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DRYLINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE BY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE MOVING EVEN FARTHER WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RH VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS
WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL AND WEST
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE POOR. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AREAS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU.
WITH THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AGAIN BE EXCELLENT IN THE
EAST AND POOR IN THE WEST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAYS STAYING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP AREAWIDE
WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST AND IN THE 20`S IN THE EAST. SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE FAR WEST BORDER WITH ARIZONA AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
CENTRAL AND EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES CONTINUE EXCELLENT IN THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING IN
THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HUG THE
EASTERN BORDER ALONG TEXAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS THIS FEATURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN NM.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHERN NM DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS THIS FEATURES EXITS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 240354
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
954 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS PROPAGATING NWD INTO NE NM AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHES TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SE
WINDS BLOWING AT KSAF WITH CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN DWPT AND KABX
VELOCITY PRODUCT SHOWERS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO BREAK INTO THE ABQ
METRO PRIOR TO 11PM-MIDNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE RAISED POPS IN NE
NM AS WELL AS ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT...RAISED SOME
MIN TEMPS CENTRAL AND EAST AND ADJUSTED WINDS. ALSO SPREAD SOME
ISOLD POPS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WHERE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
A CELL OR TWO DEVELOPING. ZFP ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...541 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDIITONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON.
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS HERE WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS. IN THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE...THE DRYLINE WILL BE
INFILTRATING THE STATE...BRINGING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS...HAIL...AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IN
THE EAST...AND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE STATE SOME
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER THE
PLAINS WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS.
52
.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
FINALLY SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY AND VERY WARM WITH GUSTY WINDS.
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CLOVIS AND MELROSE AND WEST TO
LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS BUT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS
MOVED BACK EAST OF LVS AND CQC WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING AGAIN. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S...ARE HUGGING THE NM...TX BORDER AND
NE NM. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AND MENTION POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC GUIDANCE. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
CWA CURRENTLY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BACK TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE A SEEPAGE OF EAST CANYON
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD MIX OUT BY FRIDAY PM BUT DECIDED TO PUT A FEW DRY STORMS IN
FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...PARTLY BASED ON SPC LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
ALSO UNSTABLE EVEN OVER THE WEST FRIDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BEST
POPS FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORMS NEAR THE TX BORDER. CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY IN THE WEST...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE SPRINKLES IN THE JEMEZ.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS INTENSITY. WILL
ONLY CARRY ISOLATED POPS EVEN NEAR THE TX BORDER. A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE WEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
FOR THE EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NEAR
THE TX BORDER AND A DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NM TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME COOLING IN THE NW
AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO HANG OUT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING IN WESTERN NM ALONG THE AZ BORDER WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
INTO THE 30`S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY
WINDS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DRYLINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE BY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE MOVING EVEN FARTHER WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RH VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS
WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL AND WEST
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE POOR. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AREAS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU.
WITH THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AGAIN BE EXCELLENT IN THE
EAST AND POOR IN THE WEST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAYS STAYING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP AREAWIDE
WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST AND IN THE 20`S IN THE EAST. SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE FAR WEST BORDER WITH ARIZONA AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
CENTRAL AND EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES CONTINUE EXCELLENT IN THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING IN
THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HUG THE
EASTERN BORDER ALONG TEXAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS THIS FEATURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN NM.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHERN NM DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS THIS FEATURES EXITS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 232341
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.UPDATE...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDIITONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE COMMON.
SHOWERS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS HERE WILL
EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOCALIZED
WIND GUSTS. IN THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE...THE DRYLINE WILL BE
INFILTRATING THE STATE...BRINGING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS. SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS...HAIL...AND STRONG
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IN
THE EAST...AND AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE STATE SOME
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVER THE
PLAINS WITH SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIFR CEILINGS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
FINALLY SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY AND VERY WARM WITH GUSTY WINDS.
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CLOVIS AND MELROSE AND WEST TO
LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS BUT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS
MOVED BACK EAST OF LVS AND CQC WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING AGAIN. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S...ARE HUGGING THE NM...TX BORDER AND
NE NM. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AND MENTION POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC GUIDANCE. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
CWA CURRENTLY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BACK TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE A SEEPAGE OF EAST CANYON
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD MIX OUT BY FRIDAY PM BUT DECIDED TO PUT A FEW DRY STORMS IN
FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...PARTLY BASED ON SPC LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
ALSO UNSTABLE EVEN OVER THE WEST FRIDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BEST
POPS FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORMS NEAR THE TX BORDER. CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY IN THE WEST...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE SPRINKLES IN THE JEMEZ.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS INTENSITY. WILL
ONLY CARRY ISOLATED POPS EVEN NEAR THE TX BORDER. A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE WEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
FOR THE EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NEAR
THE TX BORDER AND A DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NM TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME COOLING IN THE NW
AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO HANG OUT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING IN WESTERN NM ALONG THE AZ BORDER WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
INTO THE 30`S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY
WINDS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DRYLINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE BY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE MOVING EVEN FARTHER WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RH VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS
WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL AND WEST
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE POOR. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AREAS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU.
WITH THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AGAIN BE EXCELLENT IN THE
EAST AND POOR IN THE WEST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAYS STAYING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP AREAWIDE
WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST AND IN THE 20`S IN THE EAST. SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE FAR WEST BORDER WITH ARIZONA AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
CENTRAL AND EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES CONTINUE EXCELLENT IN THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING IN
THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HUG THE
EASTERN BORDER ALONG TEXAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS THIS FEATURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN NM.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHERN NM DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS THIS FEATURES EXITS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 232105
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND HOPEFULLY DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE WEST WILL REMAIN
DRY AND VERY WARM WITH GUSTY WINDS.
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH CLOVIS AND MELROSE AND WEST TO
LAS VEGAS AND CLINES CORNERS BUT HAS STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND HAS
MOVED BACK EAST OF LVS AND CQC WITH DEWPOINTS LOWERING AGAIN. THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS...IN THE 40S...ARE HUGGING THE NM...TX BORDER AND
NE NM. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THIS AREA AND MENTION POSSIBLE
SEVERE WEATHER PER SPC GUIDANCE. DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR
CWA CURRENTLY. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE EAST.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BACK TO THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT. COULD EVEN SEE A SEEPAGE OF EAST CANYON
WIND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS MOISTURE
SHOULD MIX OUT BY FRIDAY PM BUT DECIDED TO PUT A FEW DRY STORMS IN
FOR THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS...PARTLY BASED ON SPC LIGHTNING POTENTIAL.
ALSO UNSTABLE EVEN OVER THE WEST FRIDAY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. BEST
POPS FRIDAY WILL BE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH THE STORMS NEAR THE TX BORDER. CONTINUED WARM AND
DRY IN THE WEST...ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE SPRINKLES IN THE JEMEZ.
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF A DOWNWARD
TREND IN CONVECTION...BOTH IN COVERAGE AND PERHAPS INTENSITY. WILL
ONLY CARRY ISOLATED POPS EVEN NEAR THE TX BORDER. A BIT STRONGER
AND MORE WEST FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL LEAD TO A DRYING TREND
FOR THE EAST...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NEAR
THE TX BORDER AND A DRY AND VERY WARM FORECAST AREA WIDE FOR
MEMORIAL DAY.
A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH NM TUESDAY AND
CROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME COOLING IN THE NW
AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS. IT SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUING TO HANG OUT OFF THE PACIFIC COAST.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE STATE LEAVING MOST LOCATIONS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING IN WESTERN NM ALONG THE AZ BORDER WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTING
INTO THE 30`S AND MIN RH VALUES ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. GUSTY
WINDS PREVALENT ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DRYLINE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE BY EARLY MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY WITH DRYLINE MOVING EVEN FARTHER WEST BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN RH VALUES FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD. THIS
WESTWARD PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL CREATE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES ALONG THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE THE CENTRAL AND WEST
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ARE POOR. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
AT EASTERN LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS VERY LITTLE CHANGE WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE DAY. VENTILATION RATES WILL
BE EXCELLENT AREAWIDE WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AREAS AT ALL LOCATIONS. THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST WILL
LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS WELL AS THE WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU.
WITH THE DRYLINE SET UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN
THE EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL AGAIN BE EXCELLENT IN THE
EAST AND POOR IN THE WEST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAYS STAYING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN PICK UP AREAWIDE
WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED. MIN RH VALUES REMAINING IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS CENTRAL AND WEST AND IN THE 20`S IN THE EAST. SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE FAR WEST BORDER WITH ARIZONA AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. SUNDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
CENTRAL AND EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE STATE. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES CONTINUE EXCELLENT IN THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWERING IN
THE WEST. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY EXPECTED TO HUG THE
EASTERN BORDER ALONG TEXAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES RETURNING
AREAWIDE. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT WITH MIN RH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE HOURS IN THE NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN AND BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY EASTWARD INTO TUESDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS THIS FEATURE MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE STATE. BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NORTHERN NM.
THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK TO NORTHERN NM DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS THIS FEATURES EXITS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT IS LEFT BEHIND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED. KGUP EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
35KTS THROUGHOUT MID DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH A DRYLINE
PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE EAST A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT LOCATIONS IN THE EAST...HAVE VCSH AND
VCTS AT KTCC AND KROW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DRYLINE PUSH WILL LOWER CEILINGS AT CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY
EXPECTED AT KLVS KTCC AND KROW. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT KROW
MAY BE SOONER THAN STATED IN TAF AT THE MOMENT. MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT AS TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AT THIS SITE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING LATE FRIDAY MORNING HOURS IN THE WEST AND
EAST WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT THUNDERSTORM DEV ELOPEMENT FRI
AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 38 81 37 81 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 42 83 42 84 / 5 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 42 83 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 38 78 38 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 44 85 46 85 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 46 83 46 82 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 48 88 45 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 38 74 40 73 / 5 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 53 79 52 80 / 5 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 50 76 49 78 / 10 20 10 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 44 78 42 77 / 10 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 39 68 41 68 / 20 20 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 35 71 33 72 / 20 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 43 80 41 79 / 10 10 5 5
MORA............................ 47 75 46 78 / 20 30 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 49 85 48 85 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 79 51 79 / 10 10 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 50 85 50 85 / 5 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 87 58 87 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 58 89 59 88 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 91 56 90 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 91 56 91 / 0 5 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 92 53 92 / 0 5 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 55 92 56 91 / 0 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 95 59 95 / 0 0 5 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 85 52 85 / 5 10 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 53 85 53 85 / 5 5 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 82 47 83 / 10 10 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 81 50 81 / 10 20 10 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 84 53 83 / 10 10 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 87 54 87 / 5 10 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 52 77 51 77 / 20 30 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 52 78 53 80 / 30 20 20 20
RATON........................... 50 83 49 85 / 30 20 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 50 82 49 85 / 30 20 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 78 48 82 / 20 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 56 83 58 87 / 40 30 30 20
ROY............................. 54 81 56 83 / 30 20 30 20
CONCHAS......................... 57 88 59 89 / 20 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 86 61 86 / 20 20 30 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 62 90 63 90 / 30 30 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 60 84 60 85 / 30 30 30 20
PORTALES........................ 62 85 62 86 / 30 30 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 87 61 88 / 20 20 30 20
ROSWELL......................... 64 89 63 92 / 20 20 30 20
PICACHO......................... 58 86 57 88 / 20 20 30 20
ELK............................. 57 81 56 82 / 20 30 40 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
40/21
000
FXUS65 KABQ 231814 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1214 PM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST. GUSTY WINDS
WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30KTS EXPECTED. KGUP EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO
35KTS THROUGHOUT MID DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WITH A DRYLINE
PUSHING INTO THE STATE FROM THE EAST A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT LOCATIONS IN THE EAST...HAVE VCSH AND
VCTS AT KTCC AND KROW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DRYLINE PUSH WILL LOWER CEILINGS AT CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...PARTICULARLY EXPECTED AT KLVS KTCC AND KROW.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT KROW MAY BE SOONER THAN STATED IN TAF
AT THE MOMENT. MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AS TO CONVECTIVE
INITIATION AT THIS SITE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP DURING LATE
FRIDAY MORNING HOURS IN THE WEST AND EAST WITH A BETTER CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORM DEV ELOPEMENT FRI AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND EAST.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD...WITH AXIS
NOW LYING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEYOND
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW ANCHORING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON
STATE AND OREGON. SURFACE CHARTS SHOWING WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL
PASO...WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF FEATURE PLACEMENT EMERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT BROAD STORY REMAINS FAIRLY COHERENT AND
WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO MAKE SOME STAB AT A MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK
FORECAST. PLAUSIBLE AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A QUASI
STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL
CIRCULATE A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AND MOVE THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON MEMORIAL
DAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THIS WILL DIG
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND SWING TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. DOMESTIC GFS LEADS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF ON TROUGH
PASSAGE...AS GFS KEEPS DECIDED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH IN
PHASE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A LESS PHASED AND MORE MERIDIONAL TROUGH. BOTTOM LINE
DOESNT REALLY CHANGE FOR NEW MEXICO AS THE MIDWEEK STORY IS
TROUGHINESS...AND AS THE TROUGH BASE ROUNDS OUT AND TROUGH
COVERAGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S...SUSBSTANTIAL
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL SOLUTIONS NOW TELEGRAPHING DIG OF
TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG ZONAL WINDS ALOFT BACKING
TO SOUTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND GETS UNDERWAY.
FOR TODAY...ACTIVE CONVECTION ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. LIFTED INDICES FALL TO 6 BELOW IN THESE AREAS...WITH
BUOYANCY SUPPORTED BY 1000 J PER KG MU CAPE ALONG THE TEXAS LINE.
MU CAPE LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND NOTING SPC
COLLEAGUES HAVE EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUAY...HARDING...AND UNION
COUNTIES UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HEADING INTO THE
EVENING...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEER WITH ALTITUDE TO
SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. CHIEF
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL ACCOMPANIED WITH SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME HAZY HIGH CLOUDS
TAKING THE EDGE OFF A BROADLY SUNNY DAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND COMBINED WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTENDS TROUGH SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER ACTIVELY
CONVECTIVE DAY ON TAP FOR THE EAST...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPANDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS EAST OF A CLAYTON TO TUCUMCARI TO RUIDOSO LINE
MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AS LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J PER KG. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CAREFULLY FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SEVERE
MENTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THE HAIL AND GUST
MENTION FOR NOW. WARMING TRENDS LEVELING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST AND REMAINING SUNNY IN THE WEST. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OVER THE ARIZONA BORDER COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH A SIMILAR
STORY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AS SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD EL PASO...AND WESTWARD TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE
OUT EAST...WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 5 BELOW...AND MUCAPE
RUNNING AROUND 1500 J PER KG. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDERS...WITH THINGS REMAINING DRY OVER THE WEST. USUAL AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN TIER NEAR THE
ARIZONA LINE...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...A STEADY TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. WITH DRY LINE
RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST...AND DEEPENING TROUGH PROVIDING
SHARPER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...COVERAGE SUNDAY WILL NOT EXTEND AS
FAR WEST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM FOCUS ON THE
TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHERE LIFTED
INDICES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 6 BELOW AND MUCAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J
PER KG. SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...BUT MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
NORMAL OR BETTER. REMAINING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST.
OUTLOOK...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
CONTINUING ALOFT WITH EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH
DRY LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NOW MOSTLY IN TEXAS LEAVING JUST
A SKINNY STRIP OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE WILL BLAST ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
NUDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE BY
TUESDAY EVENING....AND THIS COVERAGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THINGS BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES MORE IN THE EAST. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...STARTING IN THE
WEST ON MEMORIAL DAY...DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS ON
TUESDAY...AND END UP IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHY
.FIRE WEATHER...
..CONTINUED VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW STILL CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH AN AXIS JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH
MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED
DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED...LIKELY ABOVE 500 MB...THUS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TODAY...BUT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL USHER IN HIGHER DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME WETTING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS ALL ZONES.
MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL
AND EAST BUT RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...THE WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. FEW CHANGES IN THE WEST WITH
VERY DRY...VERY UNSTABLE AND A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER EAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WETTING RAIN IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL
RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR CENTRAL AND WEST TO EXCELLENT EAST.
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CENTRAL
AND WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY
LINE EAST. EXTENDED MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT IN THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE WEST REMAINS VERY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
EAST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES
EXPECTED ALL ZONES.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 231204
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH PERIOD WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30KT BY
MID DAY PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
BETWEEN KRTN AND KCAO. EXPECT THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MIX OUT MID
MORNING AROUND 16Z OR 17Z. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH A DRY LINE EDGING INTO
THE STATE SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST...INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHEAST QUADRANT
COULD SEE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 50KTS. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. FROM 06Z THROUGH 12Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EAST. CURRENTLY
CARRYING MVFR CIGS AT KLVS...LESS CERTAIN ELSEWHERE.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...327 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD...WITH AXIS
NOW LYING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEYOND
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW ANCHORING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON
STATE AND OREGON. SURFACE CHARTS SHOWING WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL
PASO...WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF FEATURE PLACEMENT EMERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT BROAD STORY REMAINS FAIRLY COHERENT AND
WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO MAKE SOME STAB AT A MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK
FORECAST. PLAUSIBLE AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A QUASI
STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL
CIRCULATE A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AND MOVE THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON MEMORIAL
DAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THIS WILL DIG
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND SWING TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. DOMESTIC GFS LEADS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF ON TROUGH
PASSAGE...AS GFS KEEPS DECIDED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH IN
PHASE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A LESS PHASED AND MORE MERIDIONAL TROUGH. BOTTOM LINE
DOESNT REALLY CHANGE FOR NEW MEXICO AS THE MIDWEEK STORY IS
TROUGHINESS...AND AS THE TROUGH BASE ROUNDS OUT AND TROUGH
COVERAGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S...SUSBSTANTIAL
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL SOLUTIONS NOW TELEGRAPHING DIG OF
TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG ZONAL WINDS ALOFT BACKING
TO SOUTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND GETS UNDERWAY.
FOR TODAY...ACTIVE CONVECTION ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. LIFTED INDICES FALL TO 6 BELOW IN THESE AREAS...WITH
BUOYANCY SUPPORTED BY 1000 J PER KG MU CAPE ALONG THE TEXAS LINE.
MU CAPE LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND NOTING SPC
COLLEAGUES HAVE EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUAY...HARDING...AND UNION
COUNTIES UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HEADING INTO THE
EVENING...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEER WITH ALTITUDE TO
SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. CHIEF
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL ACCOMPANIED WITH SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME HAZY HIGH CLOUDS
TAKING THE EDGE OFF A BROADLY SUNNY DAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND COMBINED WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTENDS TROUGH SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER ACTIVELY
CONVECTIVE DAY ON TAP FOR THE EAST...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPANDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS EAST OF A CLAYTON TO TUCUMCARI TO RUIDOSO LINE
MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AS LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J PER KG. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CAREFULLY FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SEVERE
MENTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THE HAIL AND GUST
MENTION FOR NOW. WARMING TRENDS LEVELING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST AND REMAINING SUNNY IN THE WEST. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OVER THE ARIZONA BORDER COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH A SIMILAR
STORY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AS SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD EL PASO...AND WESTWARD TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE
OUT EAST...WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 5 BELOW...AND MUCAPE
RUNNING AROUND 1500 J PER KG. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDERS...WITH THINGS REMAINING DRY OVER THE WEST. USUAL AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN TIER NEAR THE
ARIZONA LINE...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...A STEADY TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. WITH DRY LINE
RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST...AND DEEPENING TROUGH PROVIDING
SHARPER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...COVERAGE SUNDAY WILL NOT EXTEND AS
FAR WEST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM FOCUS ON THE
TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHERE LIFTED
INDICES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 6 BELOW AND MUCAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J
PER KG. SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...BUT MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
NORMAL OR BETTER. REMAINING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST.
OUTLOOK...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
CONTINUING ALOFT WITH EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH
DRY LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NOW MOSTLY IN TEXAS LEAVING JUST
A SKINNY STRIP OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE WILL BLAST ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
NUDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE BY
TUESDAY EVENING....AND THIS COVERAGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THINGS BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES MORE IN THE EAST. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...STARTING IN THE
WEST ON MEMORIAL DAY...DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS ON
TUESDAY...AND END UP IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHY
.FIRE WEATHER...
..CONTINUED VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW STILL CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH AN AXIS JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH
MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED
DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED...LIKELY ABOVE 500 MB...THUS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TODAY...BUT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL USHER IN HIGHER DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME WETTING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS ALL ZONES.
MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL
AND EAST BUT RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...THE WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. FEW CHANGES IN THE WEST WITH
VERY DRY...VERY UNSTABLE AND A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER EAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WETTING RAIN IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL
RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR CENTRAL AND WEST TO EXCELLENT EAST.
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CENTRAL
AND WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY
LINE EAST. EXTENDED MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT IN THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE WEST REMAINS VERY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
EAST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES
EXPECTED ALL ZONES.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
SHY
000
FXUS65 KABQ 230927
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 AM MDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD...WITH AXIS
NOW LYING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BEYOND
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC. FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO IS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW ANCHORING WEATHER SYSTEM OVER WASHINGTON
STATE AND OREGON. SURFACE CHARTS SHOWING WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL
PASO...WITH DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF FEATURE PLACEMENT EMERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...BUT BROAD STORY REMAINS FAIRLY COHERENT AND
WITH ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO MAKE SOME STAB AT A MIDWEEK TO LATE WEEK
FORECAST. PLAUSIBLE AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS MAINTAINS A QUASI
STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL
CIRCULATE A DIGGING SHORTWAVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AND MOVE THIS FIRST WAVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS ON MEMORIAL
DAY. TRAILING SHORTWAVE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED...AND THIS WILL DIG
TO BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY TUESDAY AND SWING TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. DOMESTIC GFS LEADS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF ON TROUGH
PASSAGE...AS GFS KEEPS DECIDED NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH IN
PHASE WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WHILE ECMWF
MAINTAINS A LESS PHASED AND MORE MERIDIONAL TROUGH. BOTTOM LINE
DOESNT REALLY CHANGE FOR NEW MEXICO AS THE MIDWEEK STORY IS
TROUGHINESS...AND AS THE TROUGH BASE ROUNDS OUT AND TROUGH
COVERAGE EXPANDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S...SUSBSTANTIAL
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ALL SOLUTIONS NOW TELEGRAPHING DIG OF
TROUGH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH STRONG ZONAL WINDS ALOFT BACKING
TO SOUTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND GETS UNDERWAY.
FOR TODAY...ACTIVE CONVECTION ON TAP FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...WITH SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS CLOSE TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. LIFTED INDICES FALL TO 6 BELOW IN THESE AREAS...WITH
BUOYANCY SUPPORTED BY 1000 J PER KG MU CAPE ALONG THE TEXAS LINE.
MU CAPE LOCALLY HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...AND NOTING SPC
COLLEAGUES HAVE EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUAY...HARDING...AND UNION
COUNTIES UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HEADING INTO THE
EVENING...AS SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE VEER WITH ALTITUDE TO
SOUTHWEST AND PROVIDE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WITH HEIGHT. CHIEF
THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL ACCOMPANIED WITH SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE WITH SOME HAZY HIGH CLOUDS
TAKING THE EDGE OFF A BROADLY SUNNY DAY. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA BORDER TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...AND COMBINED WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES...WILL PRODUCE RED
FLAG CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTENDS TROUGH SOUTH
AND WEST ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER ACTIVELY
CONVECTIVE DAY ON TAP FOR THE EAST...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPANDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STORMS EAST OF A CLAYTON TO TUCUMCARI TO RUIDOSO LINE
MAY CONTAIN SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...AS LIFTED INDICES
FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J PER KG. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THIS AREA CAREFULLY FOR POSSIBLE NEED FOR A SEVERE
MENTION IN FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT WILL HOLD WITH THE HAIL AND GUST
MENTION FOR NOW. WARMING TRENDS LEVELING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY...WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD
COVER IN THE EAST AND REMAINING SUNNY IN THE WEST. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OVER THE ARIZONA BORDER COUNTRY WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WITH A SIMILAR
STORY OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE AS SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST TOWARD EL PASO...AND WESTWARD TO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE
OUT EAST...WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 5 BELOW...AND MUCAPE
RUNNING AROUND 1500 J PER KG. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDERS...WITH THINGS REMAINING DRY OVER THE WEST. USUAL AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN TIER NEAR THE
ARIZONA LINE...WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...A STEADY TEMPERATURE PROFILE WITH DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
FOR SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. WITH DRY LINE
RETREATING BACK TO THE EAST...AND DEEPENING TROUGH PROVIDING
SHARPER FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...COVERAGE SUNDAY WILL NOT EXTEND AS
FAR WEST AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH MOST THUNDERSTORM FOCUS ON THE
TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY HEADING INTO SUNDAY EVENING WHERE LIFTED
INDICES ARE RUNNING ABOUT 6 BELOW AND MUCAPE REMAINS AROUND 1500 J
PER KG. SOME COOLER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...BUT MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
NORMAL OR BETTER. REMAINING 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST.
OUTLOOK...MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME
CONTINUING ALOFT WITH EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH FOR MEMORIAL DAY WITH
DRY LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NOW MOSTLY IN TEXAS LEAVING JUST
A SKINNY STRIP OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE EASTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SHORTWAVE WILL BLAST ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND
NUDGE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS ON TUESDAY...WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE BY
TUESDAY EVENING....AND THIS COVERAGE EXPANDING EASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR UNDER THE
SHORTWAVE WILL COOL THINGS BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL OR A FEW DEGREES MORE IN THE EAST. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH PASSAGE...STARTING IN THE
WEST ON MEMORIAL DAY...DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AREAS ON
TUESDAY...AND END UP IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
..CONTINUED VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
SATURDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW STILL CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WITH AN AXIS JUST EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH
MOISTURE MOVED OVER THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WELL DEFINED
DRY SLOT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP
MIXING EXPECTED...LIKELY ABOVE 500 MB...THUS BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS...
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY SEE SPOTTY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES TODAY...BUT DURATION IS NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH TO EAST
SURFACE WINDS WILL USHER IN HIGHER DEW POINTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST...AND ISOLATED DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME WETTING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS ALL ZONES.
MOSTLY POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL
AND EAST BUT RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE SOME LOW CLOUDS OR PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS.
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEEPENS A BIT ACROSS THE WEST AS THE
RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR EAST. THEREFORE...THE WEST TO EAST
GRADIENT IN MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST. FEW CHANGES IN THE WEST WITH
VERY DRY...VERY UNSTABLE AND A FEW HOURS OF SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. INCREASED SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER EAST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WETTING RAIN IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL
RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR CENTRAL AND WEST TO EXCELLENT EAST.
LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CENTRAL
AND WEST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY
LINE EAST. EXTENDED MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT IN THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE WEST REMAINS VERY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MOVE
EAST OF THE STATE BY MONDAY WITH SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON RH VALUES
EXPECTED ALL ZONES.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY 23/2100UTC. AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. IN THIS NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE STATE...WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HEIGHT...COMBINING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS. HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AS WOULD LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN ANY DOWNPOURS.
NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL OR VIRGA
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
52
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 87 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 82 38 80 37 / 0 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 84 42 83 41 / 0 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 82 41 82 41 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 79 37 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 84 44 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 83 45 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 87 47 87 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 75 38 73 39 / 0 5 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 81 53 79 52 / 0 5 5 5
PECOS........................... 78 50 76 49 / 5 10 20 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 78 44 77 41 / 5 5 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 67 38 67 41 / 10 10 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 72 35 70 32 / 10 20 20 10
TAOS............................ 80 43 79 41 / 5 5 10 5
MORA............................ 77 47 75 46 / 10 20 20 10
ESPANOLA........................ 86 49 84 48 / 0 5 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 80 51 78 50 / 0 5 10 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 50 84 50 / 0 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 88 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 89 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 91 55 90 56 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 90 54 92 55 / 0 0 0 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 92 53 91 54 / 0 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 90 55 91 55 / 0 0 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 96 59 95 58 / 0 0 0 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 86 52 84 52 / 0 5 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 86 53 84 53 / 0 5 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 85 50 82 50 / 0 5 10 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 84 50 80 50 / 5 10 20 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 86 53 84 53 / 0 5 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 89 55 87 54 / 0 5 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 81 52 77 51 / 5 20 30 20
CAPULIN......................... 72 51 78 52 / 20 30 20 20
RATON........................... 78 49 83 48 / 20 30 20 20
SPRINGER........................ 81 49 82 48 / 20 30 20 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 81 47 78 48 / 10 20 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 76 55 83 58 / 20 40 30 30
ROY............................. 80 53 81 55 / 20 30 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 88 57 87 60 / 10 20 20 30
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 58 86 61 / 10 20 20 30
TUCUMCARI....................... 93 62 89 64 / 10 30 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 91 60 84 60 / 20 30 30 30
PORTALES........................ 93 62 85 62 / 20 30 30 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 93 61 86 61 / 10 20 30 30
ROSWELL......................... 98 64 89 63 / 10 20 30 30
PICACHO......................... 93 57 85 57 / 5 20 20 30
ELK............................. 88 57 81 56 / 5 20 30 40
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
SHY
000
FXUS65 KABQ 230537
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY 23/2100UTC. AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE...EXPECT BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE. IN THIS NORTHEAST QUARTER OF
THE STATE...WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HEIGHT...COMBINING WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS. HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WOULD BE A
CONCERN AS WOULD LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN ANY DOWNPOURS.
NEAR THE INTERFACE OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAINFALL OR VIRGA
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.
52
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013...
INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP FOR NEW MEXICO WITH VERY DRY WEATHER
IN THE WEST WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE EAST WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN BETWEEN...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOSTLY DRY TSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BRINGING NM A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
VERY WARM DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIPS INTO
NE NM THU. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FAR NE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PM...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THU EVENING. INCLUDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE PM AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING. W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE VERY DRY AND WARM WITH ENOUGH WIND FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FRI COULD END UP BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESSED UP AGAINST THE E SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS AND SCATTERED FARTHER E TO THE TX BORDER. AGAIN INCLUDED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT HELD OFF ON SEVERE WEATHER WORDING
FOR NOW. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM IN THE W. MENTIONED SOME DRY STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE POPS.
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTION TO BEGIN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ENOUGH TO BRING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SAT MAY BE JUST ABOUT AS
ACTIVE AS FRI ALTHOUGH MORE DRY STORMS COULD BE NOTED OVER THE W
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SUN SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MON LOOKING COMPLETELY DRY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SW U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHJ
.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
RH VALUES AND A COUPLE HOURS WITH SUPER HAINES SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DROPPED ZONES 101 AND 103 FROM THE WATCH AS WINDS TRENDED DOWN BELOW
THRESHOLDS AND CRITICAL FIRE AREAS WERE MORE LOCALIZED. HOWEVER...A
FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN EACH AREA.
SPOTTY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON GOING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH ONLY A BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERIES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES
WILL RESULT FROM THIS MOISTURE SURGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO...AS RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR LAS VEGAS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED WARNED AREAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
WILL PREVENT A PLUMMET OF DEWPOINTS EAST AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DRY
SLOT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE LATER IN THE DAY AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AS WETTING RAIN WILL BE UNLIKELY.
VENT RATES AND HAINES VALUES NEAR 6 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES A SECOND SURGE INTO
NORTHEAST NM. FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A MORE WELL DEFINED
DRY LINE WILL FORM. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MINIMAL WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CREATING A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CENTRAL AND WEST. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUPER
HAINES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED AS WELL. VENT RATES
REMAIN EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS SLOWING ITS
EVENTUAL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY UNCHANGED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE DRY LINE WILL
FORM FURTHER EAST EACH DAY AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT RH VALUES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS TO TREND DOWNWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POOR RH
RECOVERIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE TROUGH TO BE
DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THUS NOT PASSING THE
STATE TILL MID WEEK. 24
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 222339
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AS WAS EXPECTED...SHOWERS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHEASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON. VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS
MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE...BUT SOME ABRUPT AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS ACTIVITY...MOSTLY NORTH OF A KTCC TO
KRTN LINE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL REDEVELOP INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF THE STATE...EXPECT
BETTER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013...
INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP FOR NEW MEXICO WITH VERY DRY WEATHER
IN THE WEST WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE EAST WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN BETWEEN...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOSTLY DRY TSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BRINGING NM A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
VERY WARM DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIPS INTO
NE NM THU. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FAR NE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PM...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THU EVENING. INCLUDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE PM AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING. W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE VERY DRY AND WARM WITH ENOUGH WIND FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FRI COULD END UP BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESSED UP AGAINST THE E SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS AND SCATTERED FARTHER E TO THE TX BORDER. AGAIN INCLUDED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT HELD OFF ON SEVERE WEATHER WORDING
FOR NOW. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM IN THE W. MENTIONED SOME DRY STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE POPS.
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTION TO BEGIN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ENOUGH TO BRING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SAT MAY BE JUST ABOUT AS
ACTIVE AS FRI ALTHOUGH MORE DRY STORMS COULD BE NOTED OVER THE W
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SUN SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MON LOOKING COMPLETELY DRY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SW U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHJ
.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
RH VALUES AND A COUPLE HOURS WITH SUPER HAINES SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DROPPED ZONES 101 AND 103 FROM THE WATCH AS WINDS TRENDED DOWN BELOW
THRESHOLDS AND CRITICAL FIRE AREAS WERE MORE LOCALIZED. HOWEVER...A
FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN EACH AREA.
SPOTTY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON GOING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH ONLY A BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERIES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES
WILL RESULT FROM THIS MOISTURE SURGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO...AS RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR LAS VEGAS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED WARNED AREAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
WILL PREVENT A PLUMMET OF DEWPOINTS EAST AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DRY
SLOT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE LATER IN THE DAY AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AS WETTING RAIN WILL BE UNLIKELY.
VENT RATES AND HAINES VALUES NEAR 6 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES A SECOND SURGE INTO
NORTHEAST NM. FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A MORE WELL DEFINED
DRY LINE WILL FORM. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MINIMAL WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CREATING A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CENTRAL AND WEST. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUPER
HAINES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED AS WELL. VENT RATES
REMAIN EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS SLOWING ITS
EVENTUAL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY UNCHANGED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE DRY LINE WILL
FORM FURTHER EAST EACH DAY AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT RH VALUES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS TO TREND DOWNWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POOR RH
RECOVERIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE TROUGH TO BE
DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THUS NOT PASSING THE
STATE TILL MID WEEK. 24
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 222125
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING WEATHER COMING UP FOR NEW MEXICO WITH VERY DRY WEATHER
IN THE WEST WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...WHILE INCREASING MOISTURE
IN THE EAST WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN BETWEEN...THERE COULD BE A FEW MOSTLY DRY TSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD BRINGING NM A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
VERY WARM DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EAST WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT SLIPS INTO
NE NM THU. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE FAR NE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD INSTABILITY OVER THE EAST TO PRODUCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE PM...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS THU EVENING. INCLUDED MENTION OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE PM AND EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH SOME DRY LIGHTNING. W OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE VERY DRY AND WARM WITH ENOUGH WIND FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
FRI COULD END UP BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESSED UP AGAINST THE E SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
PLAINS AND SCATTERED FARTHER E TO THE TX BORDER. AGAIN INCLUDED
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BUT HELD OFF ON SEVERE WEATHER WORDING
FOR NOW. CONTINUED DRY AND WARM IN THE W. MENTIONED SOME DRY STORMS
OVER THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE POPS.
DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTION TO BEGIN OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AS THE SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ENOUGH TO BRING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SAT MAY BE JUST ABOUT AS
ACTIVE AS FRI ALTHOUGH MORE DRY STORMS COULD BE NOTED OVER THE W
EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SUN SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND
WITH MON LOOKING COMPLETELY DRY. TEMPERATURES OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SWING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SW U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY WITH VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS A SHORTWAVE
RIDGE GIVES WAY TO PROLONGED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
BETWEEN 19Z AND 02Z AS BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY AIR
WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
RH VALUES AND A COUPLE HOURS WITH SUPER HAINES SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
DROPPED ZONES 101 AND 103 FROM THE WATCH AS WINDS TRENDED DOWN BELOW
THRESHOLDS AND CRITICAL FIRE AREAS WERE MORE LOCALIZED. HOWEVER...A
FEW HOURS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN EACH AREA.
SPOTTY AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ON GOING ACROSS
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS STRONGER WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS
AFTERNOON. CUMULUS CLOUD BUILD UP OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH ONLY A BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND POOR RH RECOVERIES ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE...BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES
WILL RESULT FROM THIS MOISTURE SURGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND
LEAD TO FAIR TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO...AS RH VALUES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE LOWER TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS NEAR LAS VEGAS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED WARNED AREAS. SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHEAST
WILL PREVENT A PLUMMET OF DEWPOINTS EAST AS A STRONG MIDLEVEL DRY
SLOT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRY LINE LATER IN THE DAY AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION. A DRY LIGHTNING STRIKE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AS WETTING RAIN WILL BE UNLIKELY.
VENT RATES AND HAINES VALUES NEAR 6 IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE.
A FEW LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG...AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT MAKES A SECOND SURGE INTO
NORTHEAST NM. FRIDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AS A MORE WELL DEFINED
DRY LINE WILL FORM. DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE MINIMAL WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...
ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CREATING A FEW HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CENTRAL AND WEST. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUPER
HAINES IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS EXPECTED AS WELL. VENT RATES
REMAIN EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS SLOWING ITS
EVENTUAL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
FAIRLY UNCHANGED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE DRY LINE WILL
FORM FURTHER EAST EACH DAY AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT RH VALUES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS TO TREND DOWNWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POOR RH
RECOVERIES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE TROUGH TO BE
DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THUS NOT PASSING THE
STATE TILL MID WEEK. 24
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE
STATE. SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILDUP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A GUSTY OUTFLOW OR TWO FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO COLORADO BORDER. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CENTRAL AND WEST WITH
MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST. A WEAK NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 47 87 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 37 82 38 80 / 0 0 5 0
CUBA............................ 42 84 41 83 / 0 0 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 40 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 37 79 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 42 84 43 84 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 45 83 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 87 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 34 75 37 73 / 5 0 5 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 81 53 79 / 0 0 5 5
PECOS........................... 50 78 50 75 / 0 5 10 20
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 42 78 43 77 / 5 5 5 10
RED RIVER....................... 35 68 37 67 / 5 10 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 32 72 34 70 / 5 10 20 20
TAOS............................ 38 81 42 79 / 5 5 5 10
MORA............................ 45 77 46 74 / 5 10 20 20
ESPANOLA........................ 48 86 49 84 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 49 80 51 78 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 47 87 50 84 / 0 0 5 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 88 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 54 91 54 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 53 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 52 92 52 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 90 54 92 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 97 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 86 51 85 / 0 0 5 5
TIJERAS......................... 53 87 53 85 / 0 0 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 85 49 82 / 0 0 5 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 50 84 50 81 / 0 5 10 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 86 53 84 / 0 0 5 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 55 89 54 87 / 0 0 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 53 81 52 77 / 0 5 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 46 72 51 78 / 5 20 30 20
RATON........................... 43 78 49 83 / 5 20 30 20
SPRINGER........................ 44 81 49 82 / 5 20 30 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 81 47 78 / 0 10 20 20
CLAYTON......................... 50 76 55 82 / 5 20 40 30
ROY............................. 50 80 53 81 / 0 20 30 30
CONCHAS......................... 52 87 57 87 / 5 10 20 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 56 89 58 86 / 0 10 20 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 57 93 62 89 / 5 20 30 30
CLOVIS.......................... 55 91 60 84 / 5 20 30 30
PORTALES........................ 57 92 62 85 / 5 20 30 40
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 93 61 86 / 5 10 20 30
ROSWELL......................... 60 98 64 89 / 5 20 20 30
PICACHO......................... 57 93 57 86 / 0 5 20 30
ELK............................. 56 88 56 81 / 0 5 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105.
&&
$$
40
000
FXUS65 KABQ 221727
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VRF CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE
STATE. SOME CUMULUS CLOUD BUILDUP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON... THOUGH COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. A GUSTY OUTFLOW OR TWO FROM AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO COLORADO BORDER. AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CENTRAL AND WEST WITH
MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST. A WEAK NORTHERLY AND EASTERLY WIND
SHIFT IS EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.
24
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013...
CURRENTLY...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SONORA ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING AND STALLS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM...LARGE SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH CIRCULATION EXPANDING TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH INCREASES IN COVERAGE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION SHOWING UP BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAUSIBLE
AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS SHIFTS RIDGE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVES IT EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. CIRCULATION
ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS BASIC SET UP WILL PERSIST PRETTY MUCH UNABATED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL
RECEIVE UPSTREAM KICK FROM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES EMERGING
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...AS ECMWF MOVES THIS WAVE THROUGH QUICKLY
AND LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON
THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
AGGRESSIVE...DIGGING ELONGATED CLOSED LOW SPANNING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ANCHORING GUSTY TROUGH
BASE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
SHOOTS THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT...AS NEW MEXICO WILL BE IN THE CALM DOLDRUMS PER ECMWF
OR INTO ANOTHER LATE WEEK WINDBAG PER GFS. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AND WILL WATCH FUTURE RUNS WITH INTEREST FOR BETTER
CONSENSUS.
FOR TODAY...RIDGE ALOFT MOVING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND SUPPORTING STRONG WARMING TREND. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS. SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER RATON RIDGE...WITH LITTLE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS CRANKING UP OVER THE ARIZONA
LINE AND EASTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO THE HEART OF TEXAS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT SPRAWLING CLOSED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WORKS INTO NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT PENETRATING
THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS INTO
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...WITH RESULTING UP SLOPE FLOW...MOISTURE
ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE. STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A TUCUMCARI
TO RUIDOSO LINE MAY BECOME STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE PUSHES UP TO 1000 J PER KG
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED OUT JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN BORDER
OF NEW MEXICO...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DRY LINE WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE
EAST...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES MOVING LOWER...DOWN TO 7 BELOW IN
SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER...AS MU CAPE DOUBLES TO NEARLY 2000
J PER KG IN THE SAME SPOTS. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN
PLAY...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WILL MEET
UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE
WESTERN TIER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE MAY NORMALS.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNING SPEEDS UP A NOTCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. SOUTHWEST
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL BE PRETTY COMMON STATEWIDE
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND OVER
TH EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE DRY LINE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 6
BELOW...AND MU CAPE HANGING IN THERE AROUND 2000 J PER KG.
RAINFALL WILL RUN HEAVIER...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
EXPANDING OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN PLAIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WAVES PROPAGATED BY PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE SLATED
FOR ARRIVAL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERN
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
BROAD AREAS OF BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...DURING THE DAY. BREEZES WILL HELP SET UP ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND ADJACENT EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TROUGH AXIS DEFINING DRY LINE
BOUNDARY...EASTERN PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO WEST
TEXAS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY TO END THE CONVECTIVE EXCITEMENT FOR
NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE
EAST...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WARM TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS....AND A MORE MODEST 3 TO 8 DEGREE POSITIVE DEPARTURE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND WEST.
SHY
.FIRE WEATHER...
INTERESTING FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER EXTREME WEST TODAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE NOT SLAM DUNK
RED FLAG CONDITIONS...VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SET UP
WITH POSSIBLE DRY LINE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT IS EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...WARMER TODAY
ALL ZONES WITH TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES EXPECTED MOST ZONES...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
VENTILATION BUT HIGH HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME
WEST WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. OVERNIGHT...RH
RECOVERIES TO BE POOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. A WEAK EASTERN
WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL WARMING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF NEW
MEXICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. CONTINUED VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH AND HIGH
HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS THE WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR ZONES 101...105 AND 103 AND DAY SHIFT
MAY EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE ZONES 106 AND 107. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE AND THE DRY LINE LOOKS TO SET UP.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF CONTRAST WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MAINTAINING GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DECENT CAPE AS WELL AND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST AND
STILL VERY DRY WITH SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
DEEP MIXING AND SUPER HAINES AS WELL.
UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE SATURDAY AND LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED DRY WEST
AND MAYBE A DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY EAST BUT ANOTHER DAY OF DRY LINE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER EAST. LOOKS DRY ALL ZONES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 221157 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND BECOME STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE AREA OVER AND
EAST OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME HIGH
BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS BY MID DAY AND WITH ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS AROUND 03Z TO 06Z.
05
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013...
CURRENTLY...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SONORA ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING AND STALLS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM...LARGE SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH CIRCULATION EXPANDING TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH INCREASES IN COVERAGE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION SHOWING UP BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAUSIBLE
AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS SHIFTS RIDGE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVES IT EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. CIRCULATION
ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS BASIC SET UP WILL PERSIST PRETTY MUCH UNABATED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL
RECEIVE UPSTREAM KICK FROM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES EMERGING
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...AS ECMWF MOVES THIS WAVE THROUGH QUICKLY
AND LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON
THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
AGGRESSIVE...DIGGING ELONGATED CLOSED LOW SPANNING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ANCHORING GUSTY TROUGH
BASE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
SHOOTS THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT...AS NEW MEXICO WILL BE IN THE CALM DOLDRUMS PER ECMWF
OR INTO ANOTHER LATE WEEK WINDBAG PER GFS. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AND WILL WATCH FUTURE RUNS WITH INTEREST FOR BETTER
CONSENSUS.
FOR TODAY...RIDGE ALOFT MOVING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND SUPPORTING STRONG WARMING TREND. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS. SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER RATON RIDGE...WITH LITTLE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS CRANKING UP OVER THE ARIZONA
LINE AND EASTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO THE HEART OF TEXAS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT SPRAWLING CLOSED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WORKS INTO NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT PENETRATING
THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS INTO
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...WITH RESULTING UP SLOPE FLOW...MOISTURE
ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE. STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A TUCUMCARI
TO RUIDOSO LINE MAY BECOME STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE PUSHES UP TO 1000 J PER KG
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED OUT JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN BORDER
OF NEW MEXICO...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DRY LINE WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE
EAST...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES MOVING LOWER...DOWN TO 7 BELOW IN
SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER...AS MU CAPE DOUBLES TO NEARLY 2000
J PER KG IN THE SAME SPOTS. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN
PLAY...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WILL MEET
UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE
WESTERN TIER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE MAY NORMALS.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNING SPEEDS UP A NOTCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. SOUTHWEST
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL BE PRETTY COMMON STATEWIDE
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND OVER
TH EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE DRY LINE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 6
BELOW...AND MU CAPE HANGING IN THERE AROUND 2000 J PER KG.
RAINFALL WILL RUN HEAVIER...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
EXPANDING OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN PLAIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WAVES PROPAGATED BY PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE SLATED
FOR ARRIVAL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERN
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
BROAD AREAS OF BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...DURING THE DAY. BREEZES WILL HELP SET UP ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND ADJACENT EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TROUGH AXIS DEFINING DRY LINE
BOUNDARY...EASTERN PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO WEST
TEXAS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY TO END THE CONVECTIVE EXCITEMENT FOR
NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE
EAST...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WARM TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS....AND A MORE MODEST 3 TO 8 DEGREE POSITIVE DEPARTURE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND WEST.
SHY
.FIRE WEATHER...
INTERESTING FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER EXTREME WEST TODAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE NOT SLAM DUNK
RED FLAG CONDITIONS...VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SET UP
WITH POSSIBLE DRY LINE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT IS EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...WARMER TODAY
ALL ZONES WITH TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES EXPECTED MOST ZONES...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
VENTILATION BUT HIGH HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME
WEST WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. OVERNIGHT...RH
RECOVERIES TO BE POOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. A WEAK EASTERN
WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL WARMING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF NEW
MEXICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. CONTINUED VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH AND HIGH
HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS THE WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR ZONES 101...105 AND 103 AND DAY SHIFT
MAY EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE ZONES 106 AND 107. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE AND THE DRY LINE LOOKS TO SET UP.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF CONTRAST WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MAINTAINING GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DECENT CAPE AS WELL AND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST AND
STILL VERY DRY WITH SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
DEEP MIXING AND SUPER HAINES AS WELL.
UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE SATURDAY AND LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED DRY WEST
AND MAYBE A DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY EAST BUT ANOTHER DAY OF DRY LINE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER EAST. LOOKS DRY ALL ZONES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
05
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
SHY
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220930
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SONORA ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING AND STALLS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM...LARGE SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH CIRCULATION EXPANDING TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH INCREASES IN COVERAGE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION SHOWING UP BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAUSIBLE
AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS SHIFTS RIDGE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVES IT EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. CIRCULATION
ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS BASIC SET UP WILL PERSIST PRETTY MUCH UNABATED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL
RECEIVE UPSTREAM KICK FROM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES EMERGING
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...AS ECMWF MOVES THIS WAVE THROUGH QUICKLY
AND LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON
THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
AGGRESSIVE...DIGGING ELONGATED CLOSED LOW SPANNING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ANCHORING GUSTY TROUGH
BASE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
SHOOTS THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT...AS NEW MEXICO WILL BE IN THE CALM DOLDRUMS PER ECMWF
OR INTO ANOTHER LATE WEEK WINDBAG PER GFS. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AND WILL WATCH FUTURE RUNS WITH INTEREST FOR BETTER
CONSENSUS.
FOR TODAY...RIDGE ALOFT MOVING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND SUPPORTING STRONG WARMING TREND. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS. SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER RATON RIDGE...WITH LITTLE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS CRANKING UP OVER THE ARIZONA
LINE AND EASTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO THE HEART OF TEXAS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT SPRAWLING CLOSED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WORKS INTO NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT PENETRATING
THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS INTO
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...WITH RESULTING UP SLOPE FLOW...MOISTURE
ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE. STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A TUCUMCARI
TO RUIDOSO LINE MAY BECOME STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE PUSHES UP TO 1000 J PER KG
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED OUT JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN BORDER
OF NEW MEXICO...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DRY LINE WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE
EAST...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES MOVING LOWER...DOWN TO 7 BELOW IN
SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER...AS MU CAPE DOUBLES TO NEARLY 2000
J PER KG IN THE SAME SPOTS. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN
PLAY...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WILL MEET
UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE
WESTERN TIER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE MAY NORMALS.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNING SPEEDS UP A NOTCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. SOUTHWEST
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL BE PRETTY COMMON STATEWIDE
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND OVER
TH EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE DRY LINE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 6
BELOW...AND MU CAPE HANGING IN THERE AROUND 2000 J PER KG.
RAINFALL WILL RUN HEAVIER...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
EXPANDING OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN PLAIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WAVES PROPAGATED BY PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE SLATED
FOR ARRIVAL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERN
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
BROAD AREAS OF BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...DURING THE DAY. BREEZES WILL HELP SET UP ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND ADJACENT EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TROUGH AXIS DEFINING DRY LINE
BOUNDARY...EASTERN PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO WEST
TEXAS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY TO END THE CONVECTIVE EXCITEMENT FOR
NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE
EAST...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WARM TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS....AND A MORE MODEST 3 TO 8 DEGREE POSITIVE DEPARTURE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND WEST.
SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INTERESTING FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER EXTREME WEST TODAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE NOT SLAM DUNK
RED FLAG CONDITIONS...VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SET UP
WITH POSSIBLE DRY LINE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT IS EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...WARMER TODAY
ALL ZONES WITH TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES EXPECTED MOST ZONES...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
VENTILATION BUT HIGH HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME
WEST WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. OVERNIGHT...RH
RECOVERIES TO BE POOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. A WEAK EASTERN
WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL WARMING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF NEW
MEXICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. CONTINUED VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH AND HIGH
HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS THE WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR ZONES 101...105 AND 103 AND DAY SHIFT
MAY EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE ZONES 106 AND 107. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE AND THE DRY LINE LOOKS TO SET UP.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF CONTRAST WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MAINTAINING GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DECENT CAPE AS WELL AND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST AND
STILL VERY DRY WITH SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
DEEP MIXING AND SUPER HAINES AS WELL.
UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE SATURDAY AND LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED DRY WEST
AND MAYBE A DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY EAST BUT ANOTHER DAY OF DRY LINE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER EAST. LOOKS DRY ALL ZONES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS DEPARTED EAST OF NEW
MEXICO...AND SHOWERS WERE NOT ABLE TO SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
EVEN INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. BREEZES WILL BE RESTRENGTHENING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY
22/2100UTC.
52
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 84 48 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 78 37 82 38 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 80 42 84 41 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 80 40 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 76 37 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 81 42 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 81 46 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 43 86 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 70 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 74 51 78 51 / 0 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 42 78 44 / 5 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 65 36 67 39 / 5 5 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 32 72 35 / 5 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 77 39 80 42 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 75 46 77 48 / 5 5 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 82 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 79 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 48 86 50 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 59 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 85 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 52 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 92 59 96 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 82 53 86 53 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 51 83 49 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 56 89 54 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 77 53 80 52 / 0 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 76 47 72 51 / 10 5 20 30
RATON........................... 81 43 79 48 / 10 5 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 82 44 81 49 / 5 5 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 48 81 49 / 0 0 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 83 50 76 55 / 5 5 20 40
ROY............................. 83 50 80 53 / 0 0 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 90 54 87 57 / 0 5 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 57 88 59 / 0 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 59 92 63 / 0 5 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 89 57 91 60 / 0 5 20 30
PORTALES........................ 90 59 92 63 / 0 5 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 58 92 61 / 0 5 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 95 60 97 64 / 0 5 10 20
PICACHO......................... 90 57 92 57 / 0 0 5 10
ELK............................. 85 56 87 57 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
SHY
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS DEPARTED EAST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SHOWERS
WERE NOT ABLE TO SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EVEN INTO THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. BREEZES WILL BE RESTRENGTHENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY 22/2100UTC.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...845 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DROP MENTION OF THUNDER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GIVEN LACK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND
ANTICIPATED CONTINUED DIURNAL DOWNTREND. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER UP
ACROSS THE WEST SLIGHTLY GIVEN MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM OVER
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT BUT WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY
AREAS. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND
SOUTH. BETTER RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220245 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
845 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DROP MENTION OF THUNDER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GIVEN LACK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND
ANTICIPATED CONTINUED DIURNAL DOWNTREND. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER UP
ACROSS THE WEST SLIGHTLY GIVEN MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM OVER
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...543 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND MOST OF THESE WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP BEFORE THEN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PRODUCING LITTLE
RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET...RESTRENGTHENING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN LESS SHOWERS/STORMS.
52
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT BUT WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY
AREAS. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND
SOUTH. BETTER RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
11
000
FXUS65 KABQ 212343
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND MOST OF THESE WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP BEFORE THEN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PRODUCING LITTLE
RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET...RESTRENGTHENING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN LESS SHOWERS/STORMS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT BUT WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY
AREAS. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND
SOUTH. BETTER RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 212121
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY OUT BUT
WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND SOUTH. BETTER
RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH LESS AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY. SOME OF THE MODELS STILL
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO. CURRENTLY
MOISTURE ANALYSIS BEARS THIS OUT SO INCLUDING VCSH FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT LVS THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING LATER ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATELY DEVELOPED CU FIELD NEAR THEM.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 35 78 37 82 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 38 81 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 80 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 76 36 78 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 85 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 32 70 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 75 42 78 / 5 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 32 65 35 67 / 10 5 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 69 32 72 / 10 5 5 10
TAOS............................ 37 78 38 80 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 43 75 46 77 / 10 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 44 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 83 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 87 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 92 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 80 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 41 77 46 72 / 20 10 5 20
RATON........................... 39 81 43 79 / 10 10 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 41 83 44 82 / 10 5 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 47 84 50 76 / 20 5 5 20
ROY............................. 45 84 50 80 / 10 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 50 90 53 86 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 92 59 92 / 0 0 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 51 90 56 91 / 0 0 5 20
PORTALES........................ 52 91 59 92 / 0 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 92 57 92 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 56 95 60 97 / 0 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 52 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 52 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
34
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