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000
FXUS65 KABQ 242321 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
MAINLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT TONIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT RAMPING UP SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OR AT LEAST
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN COOL BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MOST AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING SCOOTED THROUGH
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO EASE
SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT...EVEN MORE SO SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE TODAY WITH
AGAIN A FEW HIGH TEMP RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN EASING INTO WEST NM
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE A SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL EXPECTED IN A WARMER
THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME SUN AFTN. WITH SOME VERY MODEST
INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A DRY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY
NW THIRD OF FCST AREA. THIS RELATIVELY MODEST CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN THIS AREA AND EVEN A LITTLE WAYS OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA WHERE ANY VIRGA CAN DEVELOP.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE LONGER WAVE
PATTERN MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MON. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES
MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT...FORCING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUE AND WED WITH ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE MOVING OVER NM THU AND FRI.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO SITTING IN FRONT OF
INTENSIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WELL OFF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
TROUGH DEEP...AND DIG TROUGH EXTENT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND SHEARING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AS MAIN TROUGH ENERGY PLUNGES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST STATES SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AN ON OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. CORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO SOUTH TEXAS AND EASTERN CHIHUAHUA
AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCTIC...TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO THE EAST PACIFIC WELL OFF SAN
DIEGO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE MOVES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO WORK IN OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF SOME CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE 20S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. IMPROVING VENTILATION CONDITIONS BROADLY WITH MARGINAL BOOST
IN TRANSPORT WINDS. HAINES INDICES WILL RUN 5 OR HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE NEAR THE TX AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..AND
ACROSS AND DOWNWIND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
EASTERN PLAINS. PLUME OF BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
LINE...AND LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
PCT...DRY SPOTS WILL NOT LINE UP WITH THE WINDY SPOTS...PRECLUDING
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING TO END UP NEAR 2 OR 3 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES DURING AN OTHERWISE BREEZY DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FAIR TO
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCELLENT RECOVERIES LOCALLY IN
THE WEST.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE EXCURSIONS. DESPITE THE COOLING...MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE WEST. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
PCT TO REMAIN OUT OF WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WITH SOME LOCALIZED
HAINES VALUES OF 5 SHOWING UP NEAR THE TEXAS LINE NEAR TUCUMCARI.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH FIRST SIGNS OF DEGRADING CONDITIONS SHOWING UP NORTH OF I
40 THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AFTER COOL START TO TUESDAY IN AN OTHERWISE DRY PERIOD...AND TURNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. GENTLE DRYING WILL KEEP
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT RANGE. A FEW
BREEZES WEDNESDAY OVER THE I 40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEGRADED VENTILATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 242127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
MAINLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT TONIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT RAMPING UP SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OR AT LEAST
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN COOL BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MOST AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING SCOOTED THROUGH
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO EASE
SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT...EVEN MORE SO SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE TODAY WITH
AGAIN A FEW HIGH TEMP RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN EASING INTO WEST NM
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE A SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL EXPECTED IN A WARMER
THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME SUN AFTN. WITH SOME VERY MODEST
INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A DRY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY
NW THIRD OF FCST AREA. THIS RELATIVELY MODEST CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN THIS AREA AND EVEN A LITTLE WAYS OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA WHERE ANY VIRGA CAN DEVELOP.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE LONGER WAVE
PATTERN MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MON. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES
MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT...FORCING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUE AND WED WITH ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE MOVING OVER NM THU AND FRI.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO SITTING IN FRONT OF
INTENSIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WELL OFF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
TROUGH DEEP...AND DIG TROUGH EXTENT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND SHEARING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AS MAIN TROUGH ENERGY PLUNGES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST STATES SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AN ON OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. CORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO SOUTH TEXAS AND EASTERN CHIHUAHUA
AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCTIC...TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO THE EAST PACIFIC WELL OFF SAN
DIEGO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE MOVES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO WORK IN OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF SOME CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE 20S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. IMPROVING VENTILATION CONDITIONS BROADLY WITH MARGINAL BOOST
IN TRANSPORT WINDS. HAINES INDICES WILL RUN 5 OR HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE NEAR THE TX AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..AND
ACROSS AND DOWNWIND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
EASTERN PLAINS. PLUME OF BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
LINE...AND LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
PCT...DRY SPOTS WILL NOT LINE UP WITH THE WINDY SPOTS...PRECLUDING
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING TO END UP NEAR 2 OR 3 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES DURING AN OTHERWISE BREEZY DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FAIR TO
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCELLENT RECOVERIES LOCALLY IN
THE WEST.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE EXCURSIONS. DESPITE THE COOLING...MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE WEST. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
PCT TO REMAIN OUT OF WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WITH SOME LOCALIZED
HAINES VALUES OF 5 SHOWING UP NEAR THE TEXAS LINE NEAR TUCUMCARI.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH FIRST SIGNS OF DEGRADING CONDITIONS SHOWING UP NORTH OF I
40 THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AFTER COOL START TO TUESDAY IN AN OTHERWISE DRY PERIOD...AND TURNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. GENTLE DRYING WILL KEEP
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT RANGE. A FEW
BREEZES WEDNESDAY OVER THE I 40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEGRADED VENTILATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE CORE OVER NM WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL TX BY 18Z SAT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING
SAT MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  76  45  72 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  28  75  34  67 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  35  75  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  33  75  39  70 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  34  72  40  67 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  32  76  40  72 /   0   0   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  36  74  43  70 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  39  79  43  76 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  27  70  31  65 /   0   0   0  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  41  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  31  74  35  66 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  25  65  25  56 /   0   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  70  24  62 /   0   0   0   5
TAOS............................  30  74  36  68 /   0   0   0  10
MORA............................  38  76  42  69 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  40  79  37  75 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  44  73  46  68 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  75  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  75  50  74 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  77  54  77 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  79  47  78 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  79  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  47  80  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  77  36  75 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  44  76  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  42  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  36  79  42  79 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  37  82  41  80 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  38  83  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  50  85  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  45  81  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  48  87  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  49  85  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  50  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  48  85  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  47  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 241734 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON 11 AM MDT TEMPS AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS E OF
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DECIDED TO DO QUICK UPDATE JUST FOR MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY. RAISED MOST LOCATIONS 2 TO 5 DEGREES...PRIMARILY NE AND
E CENTRAL NM. ZONES OUT WITHIN 5 MIN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE CORE OVER NM WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL TX BY 18Z SAT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING
SAT MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 241721 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE CORE OVER NM WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL TX BY 18Z SAT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING
SAT MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43









000
FXUS65 KABQ 241134
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE WITH PATCHES OF CIRRUS TO DOMINATE THROUGH 01Z.
PATCHY BR WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE PECOS VALLEY FROM NEAR KROW SWD
AND EASTWARD AND IN THE MORENO VALLEY UNTIL AROUND 16Z. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 240918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATCH OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KROW BY 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE MAY BE MORE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS. IF MORE CIRRUS
EXISTS...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORENO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR KAXX...IS EVEN LOWER. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  76  42  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  74  30  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  76  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  77  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  73  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  77  34  76  40 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  75  38  74  43 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  80  41  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  70  29  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  72  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  33  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  65  27  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  25  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  73  32  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  74  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  78  42  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  73  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  76  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  76  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  54  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  81  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  74  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  75  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  77  39  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  75  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  75  47  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  79  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  72  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  79  38  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  81  39  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  81  40  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  84  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  79  47  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  85  50  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  84  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  83  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  82  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  75  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 240543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATCH OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KROW BY 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE MAY BE MORE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS. IF MORE CIRRUS
EXISTS...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORENO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR KAXX...IS EVEN LOWER. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 240319 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40







000
FXUS65 KABQ 240319 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40







000
FXUS65 KABQ 232338 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KABQ 232110
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN PLAINS NEXT 24 HRS. FOG
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CURRENTLY WILL REDEVELOP FROM
09Z THIS EVENING ONWARD...WITH TAF AT ROW WRITTEN TO IFR TO
REFLECT THROUGH 14Z FRI MORNING. ROW CLOUD COVER HELD AT SCT FOR
NOW...TO MARK EXCURSIONS TO BKN/OVC AND VV CIGS THROUGH THE
IFR/LIFR PERIOD. AWAY FROM ROW...FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM TCC TO RUI ON PRETTY MUCH THE 09Z TO 14Z WINDOW.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  75  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  34  74  29  74 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  39  75  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  34  76  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  34  73  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  35  76  34  76 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  39  75  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  42  80  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  71  28  71 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  74  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  41  72  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  73  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  30  66  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  28  71  26  71 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  32  73  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  40  74  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  36  78  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  76  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  76  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  77  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  77  43  78 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  79  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  43  74  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  76  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  75  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  74  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  41  74  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  37  80  40  80 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  38  82  39  82 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  39  82  39  81 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  78  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  50  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  47  83  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  47  84  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  51  82  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  50  82  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  50  82  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  48  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  47  75  48  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 231725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN PLAINS NEXT 24 HRS. FOG
DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CURRENTLY WILL REDEVELOP FROM
09Z THIS EVENING ONWARD...WITH TAF AT ROW WRITTEN TO IFR TO
REFLECT THROUGH 14Z FRI MORNING. ROW CLOUD COVER HELD AT SCT FOR
NOW...TO MARK EXCURSIONS TO BKN/OVC AND VV CIGS THROUGH THE
IFR/LIFR PERIOD. AWAY FROM ROW...FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM TCC TO RUI ON PRETTY MUCH THE 09Z TO 14Z WINDOW.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SWELLS OVER THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOME LOCALIZED FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF LATE
THIS MORNING IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE STATE BY THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PRODUCED SOME SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS IN EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A FEW SECONDARY AREAS IN THE MORENO
AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. FOR NOW THE
FOCUS FOR FOG IS CREEPING UP THE PECOS VALLEY FROM ARTESIA TO
ROSWELL AND INTO RURAL DE BACA COUNTY. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATE
THIS MORNING...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS OF
5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY. BY AFTERNOON ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD EXIST...MAKING GOOD VIEWING
CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVER THE GREATER NM REGION FRIDAY
WITH H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 591-592
DECAMETERS...SUMMER-LIKE READINGS. THE ABSENCE OF LONGER SUMMER-
LIKE INSOLATION WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO REACH THE UPPER 80S...BUT
READINGS WILL CERTAINLY BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS A
FEW NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
BREEZES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT THE
ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
THESE TAME.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ACTUALLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW LOCALES BEING WARMER
THAN FRIDAY`S READINGS. HAVE TEMPERED THIS ARTIFACT SLIGHTLY AS NO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE WINDS OR OTHER DIABATIC PROCESSES APPEAR TO
DEVELOP AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DOES FINALLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER...BUT THE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THUS...THE STRONGER DOWN SLOPING BREEZES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY...AND
FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HAD PERFECT CONTINUITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DOES ALWAYS SEEM TO BE
DEEPER...COLDER...AND WETTER WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
PERTURBATIONS. EXTENDED FORECAST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST...BUT WAITING A FEW MORE RUNS
BEFORE COMPLETELY SIDING WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WARMING/DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN GO
FLAT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL TREND UP TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A FEW RECORD VALUES BEING
CHALLENGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HUMIDITY RECOVERY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT LATELY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE FAIR CATEGORY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE STATE. MAX VENT RATES WILL BE A
MIXED-BAG OF POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVED
MIXING/VENTILATION AND SOME BREEZES PICKING UP BY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH
THAT WILL LIMIT HEATING RELATIVE TO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO HIT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
BOTH WIND AND RH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLING WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND
TUESDAY...SO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECWMF HAS SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY DROPPING
A POTENT PACIFIC LOW OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE WEST COAST
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SO...BEST BET AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
ON A WARMING TREND FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT
PRIOR TO ANY LATER IMPACTS FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43/52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 231115 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
515 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR BETWEEN 13-15Z
THIS MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KROW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE LAST 3 HOURS OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SWELLS OVER THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOME LOCALIZED FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF LATE
THIS MORNING IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE STATE BY THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PRODUCED SOME SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS IN EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A FEW SECONDARY AREAS IN THE MORENO
AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. FOR NOW THE
FOCUS FOR FOG IS CREEPING UP THE PECOS VALLEY FROM ARTESIA TO
ROSWELL AND INTO RURAL DE BACA COUNTY. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATE
THIS MORNING...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS OF
5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY. BY AFTERNOON ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD EXIST...MAKING GOOD VIEWING
CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVER THE GREATER NM REGION FRIDAY
WITH H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 591-592
DECAMETERS...SUMMER-LIKE READINGS. THE ABSENCE OF LONGER SUMMER-
LIKE INSOLATION WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO REACH THE UPPER 80S...BUT
READINGS WILL CERTAINLY BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS A
FEW NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
BREEZES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT THE
ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
THESE TAME.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ACTUALLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW LOCALES BEING WARMER
THAN FRIDAY`S READINGS. HAVE TEMPERED THIS ARTIFACT SLIGHTLY AS NO
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OR OTHER DIABATIC PROCESSES APPEAR TO
DEVELOP AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DOES FINALLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER...BUT THE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THUS...THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY...AND
FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HAD PERFECT CONTINUITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DOES ALWAYS SEEM TO BE
DEEPER...COLDER...AND WETTER WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
PERTURBATIONS. EXTENDED FORECAST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST...BUT WAITING A FEW MORE RUNS
BEFORE COMPLETELY SIDING WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WARMING/DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN GO
FLAT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL TREND UP TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A FEW RECORD VALUES BEING
CHALLENGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HUMIDITY RECOVERY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT LATELY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE FAIR CATEGORY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE STATE. MAX VENT RATES WILL BE A
MIXED-BAG OF POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVED
MIXING/VENTILATION AND SOME BREEZES PICKING UP BY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH
THAT WILL LIMIT HEATING RELATIVE TO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO HIT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
BOTH WIND AND RH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLING WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND
TUESDAY...SO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECWMF HAS SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY DROPPING
A POTENT PACIFIC LOW OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE WEST COAST
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SO...BEST BET AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
ON A WARMING TREND FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT
PRIOR TO ANY LATER IMPACTS FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 230919
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SWELLS OVER THE
LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOME LOCALIZED FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF LATE
THIS MORNING IN FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME COOLER AIR TO THE STATE BY THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CLEAR SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE EXCEPTION BEING WHERE A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS PRODUCED SOME SHALLOW FOG AND STRATUS IN EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. A FEW SECONDARY AREAS IN THE MORENO
AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE DAWN. FOR NOW THE
FOCUS FOR FOG IS CREEPING UP THE PECOS VALLEY FROM ARTESIA TO
ROSWELL AND INTO RURAL DE BACA COUNTY. ONCE THIS BURNS OFF LATE
THIS MORNING...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS OF
5 TO 15 DEGREES OVER CLIMATOLOGY. BY AFTERNOON ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS IN THE NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD EXIST...MAKING GOOD VIEWING
CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL ECLIPSE.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SQUARELY OVER THE GREATER NM REGION FRIDAY
WITH H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS PEAKING AROUND 591-592
DECAMETERS...SUMMER-LIKE READINGS. THE ABSENCE OF LONGER SUMMER-
LIKE INSOLATION WILL MAKE IT HARDER TO REACH THE UPPER 80S...BUT
READINGS WILL CERTAINLY BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN WITH PERHAPS A
FEW NEAR-RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
BREEZES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...BUT THE
ABSENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
THESE TAME.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ACTUALLY DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO
SATURDAY...BUT MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A FEW LOCALES BEING WARMER
THAN FRIDAY`S READINGS. HAVE TEMPERED THIS ARTIFACT SLIGHTLY AS NO
STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS OR OTHER DIABATIC PROCESSES APPEAR TO
DEVELOP AT THIS POINT. LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A FEW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DOES FINALLY DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN ON
SUNDAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER...BUT THE GRADIENT ALOFT
WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN. THUS...THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AND
WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE ON MONDAY...AND
FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT COMPLETELY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH STRENGTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HAD PERFECT CONTINUITY OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DOES ALWAYS SEEM TO BE
DEEPER...COLDER...AND WETTER WITH THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
PERTURBATIONS. EXTENDED FORECAST HAS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST...BUT WAITING A FEW MORE RUNS
BEFORE COMPLETELY SIDING WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WARMING/DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN GO
FLAT. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL TREND UP TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A FEW RECORD VALUES BEING
CHALLENGED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HUMIDITY RECOVERY HAS BEEN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT LATELY...BUT WILL TREND DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE FAIR CATEGORY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER HIGH MOVES EAST OVER THE STATE. MAX VENT RATES WILL BE A
MIXED-BAG OF POOR TO FAIR THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY WITH IMPROVED
MIXING/VENTILATION AND SOME BREEZES PICKING UP BY AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH
THAT WILL LIMIT HEATING RELATIVE TO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO HIT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON
BOTH WIND AND RH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR A COUPLE HOURS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME COOLING WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL BY TUESDAY.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPART SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND
TUESDAY...SO LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECWMF HAS SHOWN SOME RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY DROPPING
A POTENT PACIFIC LOW OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA DOWN THE WEST COAST
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SO...BEST BET AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
ON A WARMING TREND FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH BACKING WINDS ALOFT
PRIOR TO ANY LATER IMPACTS FROM A WEST COAST TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN BORDER
INCLUDING KCVN AND WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT TAFS CURRENTLY CARRY
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES STARTING 09Z AT KROW AND 11Z AT
KTCC. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE ESTANCIA VALLEY INCLUDING KCQC...
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BY AROUND 17Z WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR ALL ZONES THEREAFTER.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  73  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  70  32  74  31 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  71  39  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  73  36  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  69  36  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  72  35  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  70  40  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  77  42  79  41 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  67  31  71  30 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  69  46  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  67  42  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  68  35  72  34 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  59  29  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  28  69  27 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  69  33  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  69  40  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  73  36  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  69  45  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  72  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  53  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  45  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  47  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  76  42  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  77  49  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  78  47  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  70  43  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  71  48  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  74  39  77  39 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  71  46  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  76  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  70  42  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  73  38  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  75  40  81  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  73  39  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  42  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  74  51  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  74  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  80  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  79  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  80  50  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  50  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  50  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  49  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  76  48  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  71  47  74  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 230539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ZONES THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...AREAS OF FOG WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN BORDER
INCLUDING KCVN AND WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH BUT TAFS CURRENTLY CARRY
TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES STARTING 09Z AT KROW AND 11Z AT
KTCC. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY
LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE ESTANCIA VALLEY INCLUDING KCQC...
AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS TO
CLEAR BY AROUND 17Z WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND VFR ALL ZONES THEREAFTER.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.

VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.

MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

32/43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 230000 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...INCLUDING THE PECOS VALLEY AND KROW AND EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THERE. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING
FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE
EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KCQC...AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.

VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.

MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

32/43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 230000 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...INCLUDING THE PECOS VALLEY AND KROW AND EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THERE. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING
FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE
EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KCQC...AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.

VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.

MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

32/43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 222115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.

VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.

MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

32/43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
AMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.

32/43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  33  70  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  39  71  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  36  73  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  35  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  37  72  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  41  70  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  40  78  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  31  67  30  69 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  68  46  72 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  42  67  42  71 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  35  69  34  72 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  33  59  34  63 /  10   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  30  64  31  69 /  10   0   0   0
TAOS............................  35  69  32  73 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  40  68  40  73 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  45  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  44  68  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  72  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  75  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  75  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  46  73  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  74  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  43  71  44  74 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  74  46  76 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  44  71  46  73 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  43  70  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
RATON...........................  40  74  40  78 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  38  74  38  80 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  73  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  49  76  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
ROY.............................  45  74  45  78 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  50  81  49  83 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  82  50  85 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  51  78  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  51  79  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  51  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  47  76  48  78 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  71  47  73 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 221757 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
ADMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.


32/43

.PREV DISCUSSION...1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 221757 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
ADMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.


32/43

.PREV DISCUSSION...1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 221636 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 221636 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 221143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 220930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  71  42  73  42 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  67  33  71  31 /  10   5   0   0
CUBA............................  69  39  72  38 /  20   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  70  36  73  36 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  66  36  69  33 /   5   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  70  36  74  35 /   5   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  40  70  41 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  74  40  77  41 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  64  31  67  30 /  10   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  66  46  69  46 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  64  42  67  43 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  67  35  69  34 /  10   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  56  38  60  39 /  20   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  62  28  65  28 /  20   5   0   0
TAOS............................  67  34  70  32 /  10   0   0   0
MORA............................  66  39  69  40 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  71  46  75  46 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  66  44  69  45 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  44  73  44 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  48  73  48 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  50  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  46  76  46 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  49  77  49 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  43  76  42 /  20   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  73  48  78  48 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  75  47  77  48 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  68  41  75  43 /  10   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  69  40  74  41 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  35  74  34 /  20   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  43  71  44 /  20   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  67  45  71  46 /  20   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  70  45  74  46 /  10   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  67  44  71  46 /  20   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  67  42  70  45 /  20   5   0   0
RATON...........................  71  40  74  41 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  71  38  75  39 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  69  40  73  41 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  79  52 /  10  10   0   0
ROY.............................  70  44  76  47 /  10   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  76  50  81  50 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  76  49  80  50 /  20   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  51  84  51 /  20  10   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  70  50  79  50 /  40  10   0   0
PORTALES........................  71  51  80  51 /  40  20   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  72  51  79  50 /  30  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  74  50  81  50 /  20  10   0   0
PICACHO.........................  69  47  75  48 /  20   5   0   0
ELK.............................  65  46  70  47 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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