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000
FXUS65 KABQ 271755 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOME LINGERING SNOW AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AROUND SUNSET MAINLY IMPACTING KABQ. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. LESS SURE OF
FOG AND NOT CURRENTLY CARRIED IN TAFS. GENERAL CLEARING EARLY
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY MID DAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 271755 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOME LINGERING SNOW AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AROUND SUNSET MAINLY IMPACTING KABQ. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. LESS SURE OF
FOG AND NOT CURRENTLY CARRIED IN TAFS. GENERAL CLEARING EARLY
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY MID DAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 271755 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOME LINGERING SNOW AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AROUND SUNSET MAINLY IMPACTING KABQ. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. LESS SURE OF
FOG AND NOT CURRENTLY CARRIED IN TAFS. GENERAL CLEARING EARLY
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY MID DAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 271755 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOME LINGERING SNOW AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN. WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EXPECTING SOME CONVECTIVE BUILDUPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A MIX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AROUND SUNSET MAINLY IMPACTING KABQ. EXPECTING IFR/MVFR CIGS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. LESS SURE OF
FOG AND NOT CURRENTLY CARRIED IN TAFS. GENERAL CLEARING EARLY
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BY MID DAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 271736 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TODAY. VSBYS AT ANGEL
FIRE DOWN TO 1/2SM IN SNOW WHILE RATON PASS IS NOW REPORTING SNOW
PACKED AND ICY TRAVEL. ALSO NOTING A STRONG GRADIENT DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE EAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. POSTED A WIND ADVISORY AS THE
CLAYTON OB IS ALREADY ABOVE CRITERIA. -GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. 11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ528-530>532-534-535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 271148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 271148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 271148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY MVFR IMPACTS TODAY WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST.
CURRENT BATCH OF IFR CIGS AT KSAF ARE TRANSIENT AND IMPROVEMENT
BACK TO MVFR OR VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT FORECAST
TODAY...BUT DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO KLVS OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS KTCC AS WELL. EASTERLY
GAP/CANYON WINDS FORECAST AT KABQ THIS EVENING...WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 32KTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...
BUT CLOUDS AND A MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER MAY WIN-OUT AND
PREVENT DEVELOPMENT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 270935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY NW. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SW MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GENERALLY INTO
SOUTHERN NM WITHIN A FEW HOURS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WC MTNS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. MTN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...FAVORING AREAS FROM NEAR KCQC TO KTCC. KLVS
AND KTCC WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAFFLING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH RAIN AND KLVS
WHILE KTCC SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  40  66  41 /  20  30  10   0
DULCE...........................  58  28  61  32 /  40  30  20   5
CUBA............................  56  33  59  35 /  40  30  10   5
GALLUP..........................  62  35  63  34 /  20  30  30   5
EL MORRO........................  55  31  56  33 /  50  50  30   5
GRANTS..........................  57  33  58  32 /  40  40  20   0
QUEMADO.........................  57  32  57  33 /  40  30  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  68  38  67  38 /  20  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  50  27  56  29 /  50  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  34  57  39 /  30  20  10   5
PECOS...........................  46  31  53  35 /  70  20  10   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  25  55  28 /  50  20  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  39  24  46  28 /  80  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  24  47  25 /  70  20   5   5
TAOS............................  50  29  56  31 /  40  20   5   0
MORA............................  41  29  50  32 /  80  20   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  57  34  62  38 /  20  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  50  34  57  38 /  40  20   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  31  61  36 /  30  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  38  62  41 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  40  63  43 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  36  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  41  64  43 /  30  20   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  37  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  59  41  63  43 /  30  20   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  60  39  64  41 /  20  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  34  58  39 /  70  20   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  55  32  60  33 /  40  20   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  28  59  29 /  60  20   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  46  31  56  35 /  70  20   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  34  56  36 /  70  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  36  57  38 /  40  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  32  53  37 /  60  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  31  50  33 /  90  20   5   0
RATON...........................  44  31  54  31 /  80  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  32  57  33 /  80  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  30  55  34 /  70  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  36  58  38 /  90  20   5   0
ROY.............................  44  33  57  37 /  80  20   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  47  39  62  40 /  80  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  46  37  62  39 /  70  20   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  37  63  39 /  90  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  46  36  61  39 /  60  20   5   0
PORTALES........................  47  37  62  40 /  60  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  37  62  40 /  60  20   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  40  65  41 /  30  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  35  57  38 /  50  20   5   0
ELK.............................  48  33  51  36 /  60  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 270935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY WILL STALL OVER
WEST TEXAS TODAY. PRECIPITATION...SOME HEAVY...ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY.
INTERMITTENT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ALONG AND NEAR RATON PASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON AS EAST WINDS PUSH MOISTURE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR PLAINVIEW TX AS OF THIS WRITING.
ELY TO NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW SENDING BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WWD INTO MUCH OF THE STATE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MODERATE SNOW HAS
BEEN EVIDENT ON THE RED RIVER AND ANGEL FIRE WEB CAMS OVERNIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATIONS APPEARING TO BE CONFINED TO VEGETATED AREAS. MODELS
REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY...KEEPING THE TROWAL (TROUGH
OF WARM AIR ALOFT) PRECIPITATION BAND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL ELY SURGE GETS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GOING WEST OF RGV DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER STORM
WARNING AS IS FOR THE SANGRES AND RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS BUT
SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION IS TOO
NELY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. DEEP
MOISTURE AND STRONG (40KT) NELY 700MB FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
AT LEAST AREAS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF NE NM
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.

CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFT EWD TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE WITH 70KT
NELY JET RESULTING IN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE NRN AND
ESPECIALLY THE WRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST FOLDS OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY
WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA THAT THE SELY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
UP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE RIDGE/HIGH OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
MORESO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN/LOW LATITUDE STREAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA. GFS CONTINUES TO TREND
WETTER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW TAPS DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WETTING EVENT IS WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION WORKING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER INCLUDING
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
EAST TODAY...AND GENERALLY 5-10 BELOW WEST. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS STILL LIKELY ABOVE 8500FT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS.

PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUMPS-UP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF A
WARMING/DRYING TREND. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY DIPPING BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD IN THE MID/LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN VALLEYS. HAINES OF 5-6 ARE FORECAST BY
FRIDAY AS WELL...BUT EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT BY LATE APRIL AND EARLY MAY STANDARDS.

WEAK WESTERLY FLOW AND A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY CONVECTION...OR A MIX OF WET/DRY. WETTING POTENTIAL
INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A BAJA LOW/TROUGH.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY NW. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SW MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GENERALLY INTO
SOUTHERN NM WITHIN A FEW HOURS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WC MTNS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. MTN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...FAVORING AREAS FROM NEAR KCQC TO KTCC. KLVS
AND KTCC WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAFFLING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH RAIN AND KLVS
WHILE KTCC SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  40  66  41 /  20  30  10   0
DULCE...........................  58  28  61  32 /  40  30  20   5
CUBA............................  56  33  59  35 /  40  30  10   5
GALLUP..........................  62  35  63  34 /  20  30  30   5
EL MORRO........................  55  31  56  33 /  50  50  30   5
GRANTS..........................  57  33  58  32 /  40  40  20   0
QUEMADO.........................  57  32  57  33 /  40  30  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  68  38  67  38 /  20  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  50  27  56  29 /  50  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  34  57  39 /  30  20  10   5
PECOS...........................  46  31  53  35 /  70  20  10   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  25  55  28 /  50  20  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  39  24  46  28 /  80  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  24  47  25 /  70  20   5   5
TAOS............................  50  29  56  31 /  40  20   5   0
MORA............................  41  29  50  32 /  80  20   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  57  34  62  38 /  20  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  50  34  57  38 /  40  20   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  31  61  36 /  30  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  38  62  41 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  40  63  43 /  30  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  36  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  41  64  43 /  30  20   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  37  65  39 /  30  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  59  41  63  43 /  30  20   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  60  39  64  41 /  20  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  34  58  39 /  70  20   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  55  32  60  33 /  40  20   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  28  59  29 /  60  20   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  46  31  56  35 /  70  20   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  34  56  36 /  70  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  36  57  38 /  40  10   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  32  53  37 /  60  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  38  31  50  33 /  90  20   5   0
RATON...........................  44  31  54  31 /  80  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  32  57  33 /  80  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  44  30  55  34 /  70  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  36  58  38 /  90  20   5   0
ROY.............................  44  33  57  37 /  80  20   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  47  39  62  40 /  80  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  46  37  62  39 /  70  20   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  37  63  39 /  90  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  46  36  61  39 /  60  20   5   0
PORTALES........................  47  37  62  40 /  60  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  37  62  40 /  60  20   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  40  65  41 /  30  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  35  57  38 /  50  20   5   0
ELK.............................  48  33  51  36 /  60  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$

33












000
FXUS65 KABQ 270551 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY NW. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SW MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GENERALLY INTO
SOUTHERN NM WITHIN A FEW HOURS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WC MTNS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. MTN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...FAVORING AREAS FROM NEAR KCQC TO KTCC. KLVS
AND KTCC WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAFFLING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH RAIN AND KLVS
WHILE KTCC SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...811 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED WIND ADVY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ADDED THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN INHERITED GRIDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MADE
SOME OTHER CHANGES TO POP/SKY GRIDS ETC. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP
TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 270551 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WEST...ESPECIALLY NW. SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
AND SW MTNS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND GENERALLY INTO
SOUTHERN NM WITHIN A FEW HOURS...THOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WC MTNS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...SNOW AND LOW ELEVATION
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. MTN OBSCURATIONS
ARE LIKELY. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS...FAVORING AREAS FROM NEAR KCQC TO KTCC. KLVS
AND KTCC WILL SEE THE GREATEST IMPACTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAFFLING
CIGS AND VSBYS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH RAIN AND KLVS
WHILE KTCC SHOULD SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAINFALL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WITH RECYCLED
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...811 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
ALLOWED WIND ADVY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ADDED THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN INHERITED GRIDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MADE
SOME OTHER CHANGES TO POP/SKY GRIDS ETC. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP
TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 270211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
811 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED WIND ADVY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ADDED THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN INHERITED GRIDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MADE
SOME OTHER CHANGES TO POP/SKY GRIDS ETC. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP
TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...603 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF ABQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET ACROSS THE WEST AND PERHAPS BY 06Z
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR FRONT ALREADY
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE
EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
IT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVE...LIKELY
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KLVS AND KTCC TAF SITES WILL SEE THE MOST
IMPACT...AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE 7000FT TONIGHT...AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 270211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
811 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED WIND ADVY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ADDED THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN INHERITED GRIDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MADE
SOME OTHER CHANGES TO POP/SKY GRIDS ETC. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP
TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...603 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF ABQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET ACROSS THE WEST AND PERHAPS BY 06Z
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR FRONT ALREADY
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE
EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
IT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVE...LIKELY
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KLVS AND KTCC TAF SITES WILL SEE THE MOST
IMPACT...AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE 7000FT TONIGHT...AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 270211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
811 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED WIND ADVY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. ADDED THE WEST SLOPES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING BASED ON
QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS IN INHERITED GRIDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. MADE
SOME OTHER CHANGES TO POP/SKY GRIDS ETC. UPDATED WSW AND ZFP
TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...603 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF ABQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET ACROSS THE WEST AND PERHAPS BY 06Z
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR FRONT ALREADY
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE
EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
IT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVE...LIKELY
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KLVS AND KTCC TAF SITES WILL SEE THE MOST
IMPACT...AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE 7000FT TONIGHT...AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 270003 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF ABQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET ACROSS THE WEST AND PERHAPS BY 06Z
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR FRONT ALREADY
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE
EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
IT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVE...LIKELY
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KLVS AND KTCC TAF SITES WILL SEE THE MOST
IMPACT...AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE 7000FT TONIGHT...AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KABQ 270003 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF ABQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET ACROSS THE WEST AND PERHAPS BY 06Z
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR FRONT ALREADY
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE
EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
IT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVE...LIKELY
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KLVS AND KTCC TAF SITES WILL SEE THE MOST
IMPACT...AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE 7000FT TONIGHT...AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$














000
FXUS65 KABQ 270003 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS WILL CONTINUE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED JUST EAST OF ABQ FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PRECIP WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNSET ACROSS THE WEST AND PERHAPS BY 06Z
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HOWEVER...A BACK DOOR FRONT ALREADY
SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHRA AND TSRA THRU THE
EVE AND OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
IT...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVE...LIKELY
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. KLVS AND KTCC TAF SITES WILL SEE THE MOST
IMPACT...AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND PRECIP.
RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE 7000FT TONIGHT...AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS.
MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KABQ 262137
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  36  66  40  67 /  30  10  20   5
DULCE...........................  30  58  29  62 /  70  30  30  20
CUBA............................  33  57  33  61 /  50  30  20  10
GALLUP..........................  32  62  32  65 /  30  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  33  54  31  58 /  40  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  31  57  30  61 /  30  30  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  33  55  32  59 /  40  30  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  37  68  37  70 /  20  10  10  10
CHAMA...........................  29  52  24  57 /  80  40  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  52  34  58 /  50  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  37  47  30  55 /  60  60  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  29  49  25  56 /  80  50  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  28  36  24  47 / 100  80  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  28  38  21  48 /  90  70  20   5
TAOS............................  32  51  28  58 /  70  30  20   5
MORA............................  34  42  27  51 /  80  70  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  40  58  36  63 /  40  20  20   5
SANTA FE........................  34  52  33  58 /  50  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  56  29  62 /  40  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  39  58  39  63 /  50  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  59  41  65 /  30  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  39  61  37  67 /  30  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  40  61  40  66 /  30  20  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  41  63  36  67 /  20  20  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  41  61  40  66 /  30  20  20   5
SOCORRO.........................  44  62  39  67 /  20  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  51  32  59 /  60  50  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  38  54  31  61 /  50  40  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  34  51  27  61 /  50  60  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  34  45  30  57 /  60  80  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  40  49  34  58 /  30  60  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  42  54  36  61 /  20  30  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  37  49  31  56 /  30  60  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  32  37  30  51 / 100  80  10   5
RATON...........................  34  43  30  57 / 100  80  20   5
SPRINGER........................  37  45  31  58 /  80  80  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  42  29  56 /  80  70  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  36  43  33  60 /  80  80  10   5
ROY.............................  36  44  30  58 /  80  70  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  41  48  36  63 /  80  60  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  41  48  37  63 /  70  60  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  41  50  36  65 /  70  70  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  41  52  35  62 /  50  40  20   5
PORTALES........................  43  55  37  64 /  30  40  20   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  52  37  64 /  40  50  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  45  60  40  66 /  20  20  10   5
PICACHO.........................  42  53  36  59 /  20  40  10   5
ELK.............................  38  51  33  54 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 262137
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 PM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE EAST HALF
OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND OUT OF THE STATE BY MONDAY MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
EAST ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS AND
JOHNSON MESA TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
REDEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION TO COME FROM THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS OF MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS
OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH MOST OR
AT LEAST PARTS OF THE RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA AREA ALSO GETTING
IN ON SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE EXACT OVERNIGHT AND MON MORN SNOW
ELEVATION IN THE LOWER TERRAIN AREA JUST EAST OF THE SANGRES IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCLEAR AS SOME GULF MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE
TRIES TO GET INTO THE PICTURE COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH...INTRODUCING SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR DOWN LOW. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE EARLIER ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON/JOHNSON MESAS ZONES...THOUGH PERHAPS NOT ALL
OF THE LATTER ZONE WILL BE IMPACTED AS DEWPOINTS MAY REMAIN TOO
HIGH EVEN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MON. FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS ZONE TO SW OF RATON MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
DAWN. RAINS GENERALLY WILL BE HEAVIEST ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO MON MORN. PRECIPITATION WILL TREND DOWN
STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH MON AND TUE AFTNS A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY FIRE MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY A GOOD PORTION OF
THE WEEK.

UPPER LVL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE STATE THU
INTO FRI WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPS TO RISE BACK ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SHORT AND LONG-TERM WEATHER TRENDS OVER THE AREA WILL ACT TO
DELAY THE FIRE SEASON BY SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN A COUPLE AREAS.
A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL EVENT WITH SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS UNFOLDING OVER THE AREA. TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH
MONDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH IN THE HIGH TERRAIN
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 9500 FT TODAY THEN LOWERING TONIGHT. A
FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER/RATON RIDGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND TO THE AZ BORDER MONDAY. THIS
WILL HELP FORCE ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG
THE DIVIDE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AS WELL.
THE EAST WILL VERY SLOWLY CLEAR OUT. RECOVERIES INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS...WITH EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MOISTURE RECYCLING AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
MORE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN SOME
DRIER AIR. VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT RECOVERIES AGAIN...LIGHT WINDS...AND
CLEARING SKIES MAY FAVOR SOME MORE PATCHY FOG. TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL
TREND UP SEVERAL DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OVER THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVERHEAD. DETERIORATING VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PERIOD WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT.

THE RIDGE IS THEN SHOWN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME MORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE STILL NOTED OVER CENTRAL NM DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS WILL BE SMALL. CONFIDENCE ON THE EXTENDED WEATHER PATTERN
HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY AS MODELS ARE FLIP-FLOPPING WITH HOW
AN UPPER LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  36  66  40  67 /  30  10  20   5
DULCE...........................  30  58  29  62 /  70  30  30  20
CUBA............................  33  57  33  61 /  50  30  20  10
GALLUP..........................  32  62  32  65 /  30  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  33  54  31  58 /  40  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  31  57  30  61 /  30  30  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  33  55  32  59 /  40  30  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  37  68  37  70 /  20  10  10  10
CHAMA...........................  29  52  24  57 /  80  40  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  52  34  58 /  50  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  37  47  30  55 /  60  60  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  29  49  25  56 /  80  50  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  28  36  24  47 / 100  80  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  28  38  21  48 /  90  70  20   5
TAOS............................  32  51  28  58 /  70  30  20   5
MORA............................  34  42  27  51 /  80  70  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  40  58  36  63 /  40  20  20   5
SANTA FE........................  34  52  33  58 /  50  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  56  29  62 /  40  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  39  58  39  63 /  50  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  59  41  65 /  30  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  39  61  37  67 /  30  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  40  61  40  66 /  30  20  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  41  63  36  67 /  20  20  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  41  61  40  66 /  30  20  20   5
SOCORRO.........................  44  62  39  67 /  20  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  51  32  59 /  60  50  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  38  54  31  61 /  50  40  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  34  51  27  61 /  50  60  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  34  45  30  57 /  60  80  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  40  49  34  58 /  30  60  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  42  54  36  61 /  20  30  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  37  49  31  56 /  30  60  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  32  37  30  51 / 100  80  10   5
RATON...........................  34  43  30  57 / 100  80  20   5
SPRINGER........................  37  45  31  58 /  80  80  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  42  29  56 /  80  70  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  36  43  33  60 /  80  80  10   5
ROY.............................  36  44  30  58 /  80  70  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  41  48  36  63 /  80  60  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  41  48  37  63 /  70  60  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  41  50  36  65 /  70  70  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  41  52  35  62 /  50  40  20   5
PORTALES........................  43  55  37  64 /  30  40  20   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  43  52  37  64 /  40  50  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  45  60  40  66 /  20  20  10   5
PICACHO.........................  42  53  36  59 /  20  40  10   5
ELK.............................  38  51  33  54 /  20  40  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261759 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261759 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261759 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261759 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1159 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD IS UNFOLDING OVER THE
REGION BENEATH A STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL FEATURE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD
STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. IT WILL BE
WINDY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEATHER
SYSTEM. THE FOCUS FOR RAIN AND FOG WILL TRANSITION INTO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS A SHARP WIND SHIFT SLIDES SW ACROSS
THE AREA AND DEVELOPS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD. GUSTY WINDS WITH RAIN
WILL REDUCE VSBYS CONSIDERABLY AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH IFR EXPECTED. RAIN WILL ALSO TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW ABOVE
7000FT TONIGHT WHERE SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261642
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SUB-VFR IMPACTS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KROW WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING AND MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF KSAF...KABQ
AND KAEG. GENERAL DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 261642
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1042 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE MAINLY TO LOWER POPS SOME...THOUGH NOT DRASTICALLY...
FROM ROUGHLY ABQ SOUTH AND WEST...RAISING THEM A LITTLE
ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALSO LOWERED REMAINDER OF MORN SNOW
LVLS IN LIGHT OF A LITTLE LOWER OBSERVED SNOW LEVELS FROM ROUGHLY
THE SANDIAS/NORTHERN MANZANOS ON NNW THROUGH NNE. WEBCAMS AND
OTHER DATA SEEM TO INDICATE THAT SNOW NOT STICKING TO ROADS BELOW
ROUGHLY 8500 FEET AND PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER. WITH FURTHER DAYTIME
INSOLATION THROUGH CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SLIGHT TEMP RISES WILL NOT AT
THIS TIME ISSUE ANY WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS FOR TODAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SUB-VFR IMPACTS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KROW WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING AND MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF KSAF...KABQ
AND KAEG. GENERAL DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

43









000
FXUS65 KABQ 261143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SUB-VFR IMPACTS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KROW WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING AND MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF KSAF...KABQ
AND KAEG. GENERAL DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33










000
FXUS65 KABQ 261143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SUB-VFR IMPACTS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KROW WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING AND MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF KSAF...KABQ
AND KAEG. GENERAL DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 261143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SUB-VFR IMPACTS FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KROW WHERE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POPPING AND MOVING IN THE VICINITY OF KSAF...KABQ
AND KAEG. GENERAL DETERIORATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 260947
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NM...IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP. PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
IMPACTING CENTRAL NM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND OVER EASTERN
NM BTW 18 AND 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT DURATION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN TAFS. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TRIM BACK RAINFALL DURATION AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INCREASES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM KSRR TO KROW
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE POSSIBLE. NE NM WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO
THE W TO NW WINDS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFT 00Z MON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  37  65  40 /  80  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  30  57  29 /  90  70  40  30
CUBA............................  49  33  56  33 / 100  50  40  30
GALLUP..........................  49  33  61  32 /  90  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  43  34  53  31 / 100  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  48  32  56  30 /  90  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  47  34  54  32 /  90  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  53  37  67  37 /  80  20  20  10
CHAMA...........................  43  29  51  24 / 100  80  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  38  52  34 / 100  50  40  20
PECOS...........................  47  37  46  30 /  90  60  60  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  29  48  25 / 100  80  50  10
RED RIVER.......................  40  28  34  24 / 100 100  80  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  28  36  21 /  90  90  70  20
TAOS............................  50  33  50  28 /  80  70  40  10
MORA............................  50  34  41  27 /  80  80  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  40  57  36 /  70  40  30  10
SANTA FE........................  47  38  52  33 /  90  50  40  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  37  56  29 /  80  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  44  57  39 /  90  50  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  44  59  40 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  41  60  36 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  43  60  40 /  80  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  40  62  35 /  80  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  53  43  61  40 /  90  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  58  44  61  39 /  70  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  37  49  33 /  90  60  60  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  36  52  30 /  90  50  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  32  50  26 /  80  50  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  35  44  30 /  80  60  80  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  40  47  34 /  80  30  60  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  42  53  36 /  60  20  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  53  37  49  31 /  80  30  60  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  35  36  30 /  90 100  80  20
RATON...........................  60  36  42  29 /  80 100  80  20
SPRINGER........................  61  38  44  31 /  60  80  80  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  34  41  28 /  70  70  70  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  39  43  33 /  60  80  80  20
ROY.............................  62  38  44  33 /  60  70  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  45  48  38 /  50  40  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  43  47  36 /  50  30  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  43  50  35 /  40  30  70  20
CLOVIS..........................  73  44  53  35 /  30  20  40  20
PORTALES........................  74  45  56  37 /  30  20  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  45  52  37 /  30  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  47  61  40 /  30  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  61  43  53  36 /  40  20  40  20
ELK.............................  55  40  51  33 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33












000
FXUS65 KABQ 260947
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NM...IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP. PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
IMPACTING CENTRAL NM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND OVER EASTERN
NM BTW 18 AND 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT DURATION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN TAFS. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TRIM BACK RAINFALL DURATION AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INCREASES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM KSRR TO KROW
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE POSSIBLE. NE NM WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO
THE W TO NW WINDS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFT 00Z MON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  37  65  40 /  80  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  30  57  29 /  90  70  40  30
CUBA............................  49  33  56  33 / 100  50  40  30
GALLUP..........................  49  33  61  32 /  90  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  43  34  53  31 / 100  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  48  32  56  30 /  90  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  47  34  54  32 /  90  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  53  37  67  37 /  80  20  20  10
CHAMA...........................  43  29  51  24 / 100  80  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  38  52  34 / 100  50  40  20
PECOS...........................  47  37  46  30 /  90  60  60  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  29  48  25 / 100  80  50  10
RED RIVER.......................  40  28  34  24 / 100 100  80  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  28  36  21 /  90  90  70  20
TAOS............................  50  33  50  28 /  80  70  40  10
MORA............................  50  34  41  27 /  80  80  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  40  57  36 /  70  40  30  10
SANTA FE........................  47  38  52  33 /  90  50  40  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  37  56  29 /  80  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  44  57  39 /  90  50  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  44  59  40 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  41  60  36 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  43  60  40 /  80  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  40  62  35 /  80  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  53  43  61  40 /  90  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  58  44  61  39 /  70  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  37  49  33 /  90  60  60  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  36  52  30 /  90  50  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  32  50  26 /  80  50  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  35  44  30 /  80  60  80  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  40  47  34 /  80  30  60  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  42  53  36 /  60  20  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  53  37  49  31 /  80  30  60  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  35  36  30 /  90 100  80  20
RATON...........................  60  36  42  29 /  80 100  80  20
SPRINGER........................  61  38  44  31 /  60  80  80  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  34  41  28 /  70  70  70  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  39  43  33 /  60  80  80  20
ROY.............................  62  38  44  33 /  60  70  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  45  48  38 /  50  40  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  43  47  36 /  50  30  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  43  50  35 /  40  30  70  20
CLOVIS..........................  73  44  53  35 /  30  20  40  20
PORTALES........................  74  45  56  37 /  30  20  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  45  52  37 /  30  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  47  61  40 /  30  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  61  43  53  36 /  40  20  40  20
ELK.............................  55  40  51  33 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 260947
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NM...IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP. PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
IMPACTING CENTRAL NM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND OVER EASTERN
NM BTW 18 AND 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT DURATION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN TAFS. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TRIM BACK RAINFALL DURATION AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INCREASES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM KSRR TO KROW
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE POSSIBLE. NE NM WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO
THE W TO NW WINDS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFT 00Z MON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  37  65  40 /  80  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  30  57  29 /  90  70  40  30
CUBA............................  49  33  56  33 / 100  50  40  30
GALLUP..........................  49  33  61  32 /  90  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  43  34  53  31 / 100  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  48  32  56  30 /  90  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  47  34  54  32 /  90  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  53  37  67  37 /  80  20  20  10
CHAMA...........................  43  29  51  24 / 100  80  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  38  52  34 / 100  50  40  20
PECOS...........................  47  37  46  30 /  90  60  60  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  29  48  25 / 100  80  50  10
RED RIVER.......................  40  28  34  24 / 100 100  80  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  28  36  21 /  90  90  70  20
TAOS............................  50  33  50  28 /  80  70  40  10
MORA............................  50  34  41  27 /  80  80  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  40  57  36 /  70  40  30  10
SANTA FE........................  47  38  52  33 /  90  50  40  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  37  56  29 /  80  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  44  57  39 /  90  50  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  44  59  40 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  41  60  36 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  43  60  40 /  80  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  40  62  35 /  80  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  53  43  61  40 /  90  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  58  44  61  39 /  70  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  37  49  33 /  90  60  60  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  36  52  30 /  90  50  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  32  50  26 /  80  50  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  35  44  30 /  80  60  80  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  40  47  34 /  80  30  60  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  42  53  36 /  60  20  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  53  37  49  31 /  80  30  60  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  35  36  30 /  90 100  80  20
RATON...........................  60  36  42  29 /  80 100  80  20
SPRINGER........................  61  38  44  31 /  60  80  80  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  34  41  28 /  70  70  70  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  39  43  33 /  60  80  80  20
ROY.............................  62  38  44  33 /  60  70  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  45  48  38 /  50  40  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  43  47  36 /  50  30  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  43  50  35 /  40  30  70  20
CLOVIS..........................  73  44  53  35 /  30  20  40  20
PORTALES........................  74  45  56  37 /  30  20  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  45  52  37 /  30  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  47  61  40 /  30  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  61  43  53  36 /  40  20  40  20
ELK.............................  55  40  51  33 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33












000
FXUS65 KABQ 260947
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY AS A
STRONG AND UNSEASONABLY COLD STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM ARIZONA.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL FROM SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS NEAR THE COLORADO
BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE A
DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CIRCULATION SHOWING SIGNS OF CLOSING
OFF OVER EASTERN ARIZONA EARLY THIS A.M. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP TO ABOUT 8000 FEET OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...ANY IMPACTS
FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LOCAL...CONFINED MAINLY TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-9500 FEET (I.E., THE TOP OF MT
TAYLOR...PEAKS ABOVE 9000 FEET IN THE MAGDALENA AND SAN MATEO
MTNS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS WHITEWATER BALDY AND MOGOLLON
BALDY IN THE GILA). HELD OFF ON WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TODAY WITH
IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF WRN NM.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY OVER THE NE
QUARTER AS THE NELY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
DRAW IN COLDER AIR FROM ERN COLORADO. WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER
STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT
BTWN MODELS THAT A STRONG TROWAL (TROUGH OF WARM AIR ALOFT) WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION OVER NERN NM AND
THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET OR SO TONIGHT FROM
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NRN SANGRES EAST TO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND NE
PLAINS. ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL PROGGED TO DROP TO AROUND 7000 FT
SHORTLY AFTERNOON SUNSET NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SO RATON PASS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE ACT AROUND THEN. 00Z AND 06Z NAM12 WETBULB
ZERO HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR POSSIBLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BELOW
6500 FEET OR SO BUT ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE TOUGH TO COME BY.

MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH THE NELY JET STREAK FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. TRENDED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DOWN OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NOW EXPECTED OVER THE WRN AND SW MOUNTAINS. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRANSLATES EWD TOWARD NM WEDNESDAY AND OVERHEAD THURSDAY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO GENERATE A FEW MTN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUING WITH IDEA OF A MOIST
SOUTHERLY OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/WETTING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL TREND UP WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. THE FOCUS FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIPS IN AND THE UPPER LOW MOVES FROM THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
MONDAY TO IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST QUARTER AND THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WETTING EVENT FOR THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE RATON RIDGE. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS TUESDAY DESPITE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOW
COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST TUESDAY.

HIGH FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A WARMING/DRYING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THURSDAY.
LOWER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE THEREAFTER...WITH WEAK DISTURBED
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GFS AND MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE ECMWF
AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE WIND FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
STILL...LOW TO NO CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NM...IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP. PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
IMPACTING CENTRAL NM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND OVER EASTERN
NM BTW 18 AND 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT DURATION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN TAFS. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TRIM BACK RAINFALL DURATION AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INCREASES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM KSRR TO KROW
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE POSSIBLE. NE NM WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO
THE W TO NW WINDS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFT 00Z MON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  37  65  40 /  80  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  30  57  29 /  90  70  40  30
CUBA............................  49  33  56  33 / 100  50  40  30
GALLUP..........................  49  33  61  32 /  90  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  43  34  53  31 / 100  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  48  32  56  30 /  90  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  47  34  54  32 /  90  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  53  37  67  37 /  80  20  20  10
CHAMA...........................  43  29  51  24 / 100  80  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  47  38  52  34 / 100  50  40  20
PECOS...........................  47  37  46  30 /  90  60  60  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  29  48  25 / 100  80  50  10
RED RIVER.......................  40  28  34  24 / 100 100  80  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  28  36  21 /  90  90  70  20
TAOS............................  50  33  50  28 /  80  70  40  10
MORA............................  50  34  41  27 /  80  80  70  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  40  57  36 /  70  40  30  10
SANTA FE........................  47  38  52  33 /  90  50  40  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  37  56  29 /  80  40  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  44  57  39 /  90  50  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  44  59  40 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  41  60  36 /  80  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  54  43  60  40 /  80  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  56  40  62  35 /  80  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  53  43  61  40 /  90  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  58  44  61  39 /  70  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  48  37  49  33 /  90  60  60  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  36  52  30 /  90  50  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  32  50  26 /  80  50  60  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  51  35  44  30 /  80  60  80  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  40  47  34 /  80  30  60  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  56  42  53  36 /  60  20  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  53  37  49  31 /  80  30  60  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  35  36  30 /  90 100  80  20
RATON...........................  60  36  42  29 /  80 100  80  20
SPRINGER........................  61  38  44  31 /  60  80  80  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  34  41  28 /  70  70  70  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  39  43  33 /  60  80  80  20
ROY.............................  62  38  44  33 /  60  70  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  45  48  38 /  50  40  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  43  47  36 /  50  30  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  43  50  35 /  40  30  70  20
CLOVIS..........................  73  44  53  35 /  30  20  40  20
PORTALES........................  74  45  56  37 /  30  20  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  45  52  37 /  30  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  72  47  61  40 /  30  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  61  43  53  36 /  40  20  40  20
ELK.............................  55  40  51  33 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 260548 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME VIRGA SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BUT
THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO WESTERN NM...IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP. PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
IMPACTING CENTRAL NM BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND OVER EASTERN
NM BTW 18 AND 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES...BUT DURATION MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE IN TAFS. LATER
ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY TRIM BACK RAINFALL DURATION AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INCREASES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FROM KSRR TO KROW
WHERE GUSTS NEAR 35KT ARE POSSIBLE. NE NM WILL BE THE EXCEPTION TO
THE W TO NW WINDS DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EDGING INTO THE
AREA IN THE AFTN. THIS FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD AFT 00Z MON AS
WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...AS THEY WERE UNINTENTIONALLY OMITTED. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 252358 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS ALL BUT
EC NM. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. COULD SEE A
STRAY -TSRA NEAR THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WELL. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITAITON
MOVES INTO WESTERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME
OF PRECIP AT BOTH KFMN AND KGUP...LIKELY STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE.
PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NM BY 18Z AND
OVER EASTERN NM BY 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
EDGING INTO THE NE...WHERE BREEZY NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...AS THEY WERE UNINTENTIONALLY OMITTED. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 252358 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET ACROSS ALL BUT
EC NM. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. COULD SEE A
STRAY -TSRA NEAR THE 4 CORNERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS WELL. SHOULD
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE OF PRECIPITAITON
MOVES INTO WESTERN NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE MOVED UP THE START TIME
OF PRECIP AT BOTH KFMN AND KGUP...LIKELY STARTING BEFORE SUNRISE.
PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NM BY 18Z AND
OVER EASTERN NM BY 21Z. SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN IS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCALES. TS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT BEST
CHANCES ARE ACROSS NE NM. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PRECIP...AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. VSBYS MAY BE LOWERED IN
HEAVIER PRECIP. THOUGH RAIN WILL BE DOMINANT...SOME HIGH ELEVATION
MTN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. WEST TO
NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTN...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS LIKELY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
EDGING INTO THE NE...WHERE BREEZY NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...AS THEY WERE UNINTENTIONALLY OMITTED. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 252328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...AS THEY WERE UNINTENTIONALLY OMITTED. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 252328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON OBS AND LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO THE WINTER STORM
WATCH...AS THEY WERE UNINTENTIONALLY OMITTED. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 252136
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  56  37  65 /  60  70  20  20
DULCE...........................  36  51  31  58 /  70  80  50  40
CUBA............................  38  51  33  58 /  60  80  50  40
GALLUP..........................  38  52  31  62 /  60  80  30  20
EL MORRO........................  36  50  32  56 /  70  80  40  40
GRANTS..........................  36  52  32  59 /  40  70  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  37  51  34  56 /  20  70  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  41  55  38  68 /  10  70  20  20
CHAMA...........................  32  47  30  52 /  60  90  60  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  48  38  54 /  20  70  50  40
PECOS...........................  40  48  38  49 /   5  60  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  50  31  50 /  20  70  70  50
RED RIVER.......................  31  43  29  38 /  20  80  80  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  46  29  40 /  10  80  80  60
TAOS............................  33  52  34  53 /   5  60  60  40
MORA............................  37  51  34  43 /   5  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  42  54  40  59 /   0  60  40  30
SANTA FE........................  42  50  39  54 /   5  70  50  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  54  36  58 /   5  60  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  55  41  59 /   5  70  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  57  43  61 /   5  60  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  58  41  63 /   5  60  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  58  42  62 /   5  60  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  59  40  64 /   5  60  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  47  57  43  62 /   5  60  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  48  61  43  64 /   5  60  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  51  37  53 /   5  60  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  39  52  36  54 /   5  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  34  54  33  52 /   5  50  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  54  35  46 /   5  60  50  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  54  39  50 /   5  60  30  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  57  41  55 /   5  50  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  42  56  35  51 /   5  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  40  59  32  36 /   5  50  80  70
RATON...........................  37  60  33  41 /   5  50  80  70
SPRINGER........................  38  61  35  44 /   0  40  70  70
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  56  34  45 /   5  50  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  46  66  39  41 /   5  40  80  70
ROY.............................  42  62  36  44 /   5  30  60  60
CONCHAS.........................  47  68  43  48 /   5  30  40  60
SANTA ROSA......................  46  66  42  49 /   5  30  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  72  43  52 /   0  20  30  60
CLOVIS..........................  46  72  43  55 /   0  20  20  40
PORTALES........................  47  74  43  58 /   0  20  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  70  44  54 /   0  20  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  47  74  46  65 /   0  20  10  20
PICACHO.........................  48  63  43  56 /   0  30  20  30
ELK.............................  46  58  39  53 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 252136
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT UPCOMING FOR THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY PERIOD
AS POTENT TROUGH ALOFT DIVES INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MORPHS ON ITS
SOUTH END INTO A CLOSED LOW EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY AHEAD AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE THE
SYSTEM IS DRAGGING ALONG WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS. BY FAR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN
THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE
GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. DRYING AND
WARMING FROM TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT UPCOMING FOR SUN TO MON PERIOD AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES INTO AZ TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS INTO A
CLOSED LOW ON ITS SOUTH END EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG FORCING AHEAD
AND WITH THIS SYSTEM PLUS PACIFIC MOISTURE THE SYSTEM BRINGS WITH
ITSELF WILL GIVE MOST LOCALES AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AMOUNTS. HEAVIEST PRECIP BY FAR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. HEAVY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE PRETTY LIKELY IN THE FORMER AND TO A SOMEWHAT
LESSER DEGREE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND VICNITY OF RATON PASS AND MORE GENERALLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. WILL BE CONTINUING THE WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE SAME AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. BIGGEST FCST CHALLENGE
SEEMS TO BE HOW FAR...IF AT ALL...THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF THE NE HIGHLANDS AND THE RATON
RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA AREA. WHILE THICKNESS VALUES AND 700 MB TEMPS
LOOK EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR THIS AREA THAN WAS DEPICTED 24
HOURS AGO...STILL ARE FACING THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE ON N TO NW SIDE OF LOW WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME GULF OF
MEXICO ORIGIN AND OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF
THE BACK DOOR FRONT IS NOT VERY CHILLY. DRYING AND WARMING FROM
TUESDAY ON WITH MAYBE ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

JET STREAK ON THE NW TO W SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUE AFTN AND EARLY
EVE. HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD
THEN OVER NM WED AND THU...WARMING TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS LIMITING CONVECTION CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN
MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF NM THU NIGHT AND FRI. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...RESULTING
IN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS AT TIMES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A YEAR MAKES. COOL AND RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE TYPE TO MITIGATE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SEVERAL DAYS IF NOT WEEKS IN SOME AREAS.

BUT FIRST...THE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TODAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE HIGHLANDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. HUMIDITY WILL THEN TREND UP TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE
ADVECTION INCREASES FROM THE WEST. WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AROUND SUNRISE. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY AND DELIVER A
SIGNIFICANT SOAKING RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE
NORTHERN MTS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH
FOR HEAVY SNOW ACCUMS ABOVE 8000 FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
WHERE UP TO 1 FOOT IS POSSIBLE. IT WILL LIKELY SNOW IN LOWER TERRAIN
AREAS BUT WITH LIMITED ACCUMS. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS IS TEMPS REMAIN
15 TO 25F BELOW NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARD NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW TO MELT SLOWLY AND
SOIL MOISTURE VALUES TO STAY ELEVATED FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTERWARD IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

A RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY THEN CREST THURSDAY BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL DETERIORATE WITH PERHAPS SOME
POOR VALUES THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE HIGH FOR MOST AREAS WITH
WET SOILS AND NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GOOD DEAL OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE RIDGE WHICH WILL
ENHANCE THE RECYCLING OF RAIN SHOWERS AND KEEP CLOUD COVER AROUND FOR
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAINFALL INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE.
THIS WILL HELP FORCE A MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NM. DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A QUICK GLIMPSE AT THE LONGER
RANGE PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF MAY INDICATES ELEVATED
MOISTURE AND BELOW NORAL TEMPS CONTINUING.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  56  37  65 /  60  70  20  20
DULCE...........................  36  51  31  58 /  70  80  50  40
CUBA............................  38  51  33  58 /  60  80  50  40
GALLUP..........................  38  52  31  62 /  60  80  30  20
EL MORRO........................  36  50  32  56 /  70  80  40  40
GRANTS..........................  36  52  32  59 /  40  70  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  37  51  34  56 /  20  70  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  41  55  38  68 /  10  70  20  20
CHAMA...........................  32  47  30  52 /  60  90  60  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  48  38  54 /  20  70  50  40
PECOS...........................  40  48  38  49 /   5  60  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  50  31  50 /  20  70  70  50
RED RIVER.......................  31  43  29  38 /  20  80  80  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  46  29  40 /  10  80  80  60
TAOS............................  33  52  34  53 /   5  60  60  40
MORA............................  37  51  34  43 /   5  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  42  54  40  59 /   0  60  40  30
SANTA FE........................  42  50  39  54 /   5  70  50  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  54  36  58 /   5  60  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  55  41  59 /   5  70  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  57  43  61 /   5  60  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  58  41  63 /   5  60  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  58  42  62 /   5  60  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  59  40  64 /   5  60  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  47  57  43  62 /   5  60  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  48  61  43  64 /   5  60  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  51  37  53 /   5  60  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  39  52  36  54 /   5  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  34  54  33  52 /   5  50  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  54  35  46 /   5  60  50  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  54  39  50 /   5  60  30  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  57  41  55 /   5  50  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  42  56  35  51 /   5  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  40  59  32  36 /   5  50  80  70
RATON...........................  37  60  33  41 /   5  50  80  70
SPRINGER........................  38  61  35  44 /   0  40  70  70
LAS VEGAS.......................  39  56  34  45 /   5  50  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  46  66  39  41 /   5  40  80  70
ROY.............................  42  62  36  44 /   5  30  60  60
CONCHAS.........................  47  68  43  48 /   5  30  40  60
SANTA ROSA......................  46  66  42  49 /   5  30  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  72  43  52 /   0  20  30  60
CLOVIS..........................  46  72  43  55 /   0  20  20  40
PORTALES........................  47  74  43  58 /   0  20  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  70  44  54 /   0  20  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  47  74  46  65 /   0  20  10  20
PICACHO.........................  48  63  43  56 /   0  30  20  30
ELK.............................  46  58  39  53 /   5  40  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 251748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 251748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 251748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CLOUD COVER EXPANDING OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM WILL LEAD
TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF GUSTY RAIN SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ALONG THE CONT DVD. ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH THINNING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THE MAIN WAVE OF
RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN NM. CONFIDENT ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR KFMN/KGUP DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE WITH
-RA. ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
BEGIN IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY MID MORNING. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 251134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY VFR AT AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
DEVELOPING BETWEEN KABQ...KSAF AND KSKX. SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KLVS...KTCC AND
KROW. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KFMN AND KGUP
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS65 KABQ 251134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENTLY VFR AT AREA TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE
DEVELOPING BETWEEN KABQ...KSAF AND KSKX. SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS LIFT.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KLVS...KTCC AND
KROW. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KFMN AND KGUP
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

11








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250946
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  56  37 /  30  70  70  20
DULCE...........................  57  34  51  30 /  50  70  80  50
CUBA............................  60  36  49  33 /  30  60  80  50
GALLUP..........................  62  34  50  31 /  20  70  80  30
EL MORRO........................  58  35  44  32 /  20  70  80  40
GRANTS..........................  63  33  50  31 /  10  50  70  30
QUEMADO.........................  60  36  45  34 /   5  30  70  40
GLENWOOD........................  69  39  54  38 /   5  20  70  20
CHAMA...........................  53  31  49  30 /  60  70  90  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  42  49  38 /  20  20  70  50
PECOS...........................  59  40  48  37 /   5  10  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  59  30  52  29 /  10  30  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  51  30  44  29 /  20  30  80  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  54  28  47  27 /  10  20  80  80
TAOS............................  59  33  50  32 /  10  10  60  60
MORA............................  59  37  50  35 /  10  10  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  64  42  54  40 /  10  10  60  40
SANTA FE........................  60  42  48  39 /  10  10  70  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  64  38  52  36 /   5  10  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  54  43 /   5   5  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  47  56  43 /   5   5  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  71  44  58  40 /   5   5  60  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  70  47  57  43 /   5   5  60  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  73  43  58  39 /   5   5  60  30
RIO RANCHO......................  69  48  57  43 /   5   5  60  40
SOCORRO.........................  74  48  60  43 /   5   5  60  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  42  49  38 /  10  10  60  50
TIJERAS.........................  62  38  51  36 /   5   5  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  64  31  52  31 /   5   5  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  39  52  35 /   5  10  60  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  64  43  52  39 /   5   5  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  48  56  41 /   5   5  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  42  54  35 /   5   5  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  65  40  58  34 /   5  10  50  80
RATON...........................  68  37  61  34 /   5   5  50  80
SPRINGER........................  69  38  61  37 /   5   5  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  39  55  35 /   5   5  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  77  46  69  40 /   0   5  30  80
ROY.............................  71  42  62  38 /   5   5  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  76  48  68  46 /   0   0  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  73  47  65  43 /   0   0  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  48  73  43 /   0   0  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  77  46  72  43 /   0   0  20  20
PORTALES........................  77  48  73  43 /   0   0  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  77  48  68  44 /   0   0  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  81  48  72  46 /   0   0  20  10
PICACHO.........................  71  48  64  43 /   0   0  30  20
ELK.............................  66  46  58  39 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

33












000
FXUS65 KABQ 250946
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 AM MDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY. AS THE FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING...CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL ENCOMPASS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY WITH THE ACTION SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS
WILL BE A GOOD BET FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE WESTERN STATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING INTO THE PACNW ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF SETTING UP THIS
MORNING OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NW QUARTER OF NM TODAY.

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE ABOVE
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL DROP SEWD THROUGH
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND DEVELOP INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY MORNING. MAIN FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PROGGED TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE AZ LINE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SHOWERS SPREAD EAST AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING RISING TO AROUND
9000 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...GULF MOISTURE GETS INTO THE ACT
WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF NM. 00Z ECMWF REMAINS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK...BRINGING MORE
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. WILL
ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SANGRES AND
THE RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
SIX TO TEN INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WITH PERHAPS UP TO 15 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 9000 FEET OVER THE NRN AND EASTERN SANGRES
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
RATON/JOHNSON/BARTLETT MESAS. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BETWEEN ABOUT ONE AND ONE AND A HALF INCHES
COULD FALL OVER THE NE PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.

NELY JET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
TRANSLATE EAST TOWARD/OVER NM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WARMING
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND LIMITING SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS. RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST OF NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...
ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL GET CRANKED-UP LATE DAY AS THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN APPROACHES...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAINES OF
3-4 AND TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL WILL PRECLUDE A WARNING
ISSUANCE.

A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IS IN PLAY FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. GOOD
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST
QUARTER ON MONDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW INTERACTS
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS/HIGHLANDS AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE RATON RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT...BUT COVERAGE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BE DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.

INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BE THE
STORY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WARMING/DRYING TREND.
VENT RATES WILL BE A MIXED BAG OF POOR TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW AND WARMING OF THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE LENDING
TO STUBBORN INVERSIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST BY
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST BY SATURDAY WITH A TROUGHING PATTERN
FORECAST FOR THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GOING THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
MEANING A POSSIBLE RETURN OF WINDS BUT WITH A POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. POINT HERE IS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEAR UNLIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  56  37 /  30  70  70  20
DULCE...........................  57  34  51  30 /  50  70  80  50
CUBA............................  60  36  49  33 /  30  60  80  50
GALLUP..........................  62  34  50  31 /  20  70  80  30
EL MORRO........................  58  35  44  32 /  20  70  80  40
GRANTS..........................  63  33  50  31 /  10  50  70  30
QUEMADO.........................  60  36  45  34 /   5  30  70  40
GLENWOOD........................  69  39  54  38 /   5  20  70  20
CHAMA...........................  53  31  49  30 /  60  70  90  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  42  49  38 /  20  20  70  50
PECOS...........................  59  40  48  37 /   5  10  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  59  30  52  29 /  10  30  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  51  30  44  29 /  20  30  80  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  54  28  47  27 /  10  20  80  80
TAOS............................  59  33  50  32 /  10  10  60  60
MORA............................  59  37  50  35 /  10  10  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  64  42  54  40 /  10  10  60  40
SANTA FE........................  60  42  48  39 /  10  10  70  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  64  38  52  36 /   5  10  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  54  43 /   5   5  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  47  56  43 /   5   5  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  71  44  58  40 /   5   5  60  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  70  47  57  43 /   5   5  60  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  73  43  58  39 /   5   5  60  30
RIO RANCHO......................  69  48  57  43 /   5   5  60  40
SOCORRO.........................  74  48  60  43 /   5   5  60  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  42  49  38 /  10  10  60  50
TIJERAS.........................  62  38  51  36 /   5   5  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  64  31  52  31 /   5   5  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  39  52  35 /   5  10  60  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  64  43  52  39 /   5   5  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  48  56  41 /   5   5  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  42  54  35 /   5   5  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  65  40  58  34 /   5  10  50  80
RATON...........................  68  37  61  34 /   5   5  50  80
SPRINGER........................  69  38  61  37 /   5   5  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  39  55  35 /   5   5  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  77  46  69  40 /   0   5  30  80
ROY.............................  71  42  62  38 /   5   5  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  76  48  68  46 /   0   0  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  73  47  65  43 /   0   0  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  48  73  43 /   0   0  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  77  46  72  43 /   0   0  20  20
PORTALES........................  77  48  73  43 /   0   0  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  77  48  68  44 /   0   0  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  81  48  72  46 /   0   0  20  10
PICACHO.........................  71  48  64  43 /   0   0  30  20
ELK.............................  66  46  58  39 /   0   5  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

33













000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 242340
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 242340
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43







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