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000
FXUS65 KABQ 062343 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR MODERATE
DRAINAGE AT SAF MID/LATE SUN MORNING BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOME WIND SWITCHES ARE INDICATED AT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES BUT SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOW
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL
AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NW BREEZES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL KEPT MORNING LOW TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THE SAME RIBBON OF NW WINDS LEVEL WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG AND JUST EAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM
DOING THE SAME TONIGHT.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUMPS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE NM SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BIG WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER CA/OR/WA STARTS TO
TRANSLATE EWD.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING LAST 24 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA COULD MAKE
THINGS RATHER INTERESTING BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY PERIOD IS SET UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND DESPITE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ON SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
RESULT IN INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD CATEGORIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL CRASH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAINES
INDICES OF 5 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLD TERRITORY WILL PROVIDE A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DECENT WESTWARD PENETRATION OF FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...VENT RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXHIBITING GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING A TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAY 8-
10 RANGE. INSTEAD...WE`RE LOOKING AT INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY/ACTION
EITHER OFFSHORE OR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SO FOR NOW...NO
INDICATION OF A WETTING EVENT THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS ALTHOUGH MORE
MODEL CHANGES IN THE DAY 8-10 RANGE ARE LIKELY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 062343 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR MODERATE
DRAINAGE AT SAF MID/LATE SUN MORNING BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOME WIND SWITCHES ARE INDICATED AT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES BUT SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOW
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL
AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NW BREEZES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL KEPT MORNING LOW TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THE SAME RIBBON OF NW WINDS LEVEL WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG AND JUST EAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM
DOING THE SAME TONIGHT.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUMPS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE NM SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BIG WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER CA/OR/WA STARTS TO
TRANSLATE EWD.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING LAST 24 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA COULD MAKE
THINGS RATHER INTERESTING BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY PERIOD IS SET UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND DESPITE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ON SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
RESULT IN INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD CATEGORIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL CRASH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAINES
INDICES OF 5 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLD TERRITORY WILL PROVIDE A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DECENT WESTWARD PENETRATION OF FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...VENT RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXHIBITING GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING A TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAY 8-
10 RANGE. INSTEAD...WE`RE LOOKING AT INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY/ACTION
EITHER OFFSHORE OR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SO FOR NOW...NO
INDICATION OF A WETTING EVENT THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS ALTHOUGH MORE
MODEL CHANGES IN THE DAY 8-10 RANGE ARE LIKELY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 062343 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
443 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS. LOOK FOR MODERATE
DRAINAGE AT SAF MID/LATE SUN MORNING BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. SOME WIND SWITCHES ARE INDICATED AT SOME OF THE
TERMINAL SITES BUT SPEEDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOW
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL
AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NW BREEZES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL KEPT MORNING LOW TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THE SAME RIBBON OF NW WINDS LEVEL WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG AND JUST EAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM
DOING THE SAME TONIGHT.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUMPS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE NM SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BIG WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER CA/OR/WA STARTS TO
TRANSLATE EWD.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING LAST 24 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA COULD MAKE
THINGS RATHER INTERESTING BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY PERIOD IS SET UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND DESPITE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ON SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
RESULT IN INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD CATEGORIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL CRASH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAINES
INDICES OF 5 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLD TERRITORY WILL PROVIDE A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DECENT WESTWARD PENETRATION OF FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...VENT RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXHIBITING GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING A TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAY 8-
10 RANGE. INSTEAD...WE`RE LOOKING AT INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY/ACTION
EITHER OFFSHORE OR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SO FOR NOW...NO
INDICATION OF A WETTING EVENT THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS ALTHOUGH MORE
MODEL CHANGES IN THE DAY 8-10 RANGE ARE LIKELY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 062221
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOW
WARMING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL
AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NW BREEZES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL KEPT MORNING LOW TEMPS FROM
BOTTOMING OUT. THE SAME RIBBON OF NW WINDS LEVEL WILL LIKELY
KEEP TEMPS ALONG AND JUST EAST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM
DOING THE SAME TONIGHT.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE THE RULE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PUMPS UP ALONG THE WEST COAST. A DRY BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS NE NM SUNDAY
RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING. THIS COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
ELSEWHERE...HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG
LEVELS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BIG WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY
AS THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER CA/OR/WA STARTS TO
TRANSLATE EWD.

NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS BEYOND FRIDAY.
DEEP TROPICAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN DURING LAST 24 HOURS. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAM CLOSED LOW WEST OF BAJA COULD MAKE
THINGS RATHER INTERESTING BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHS ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY PERIOD IS SET UP FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND DESPITE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS ON SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. A
BUILDING WEST COAST RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AND
RESULT IN INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND SIGNIFICANT WARMING ACROSS
NEW MEXICO. DESPITE THE WARMING...VENT RATES WILL REMAIN POOR WITH
SOME POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE INTO THE FAIR OR GOOD CATEGORIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE
WILL CRASH OVER THE ROCKIES AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNSLOPE AFTERNOON BREEZES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAINES
INDICES OF 5 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH HUMIDITY VALUES
DIPPING INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLD TERRITORY WILL PROVIDE A FEW HOURS
OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW DECENT WESTWARD PENETRATION OF FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT...BUT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NORMAL. EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...VENT RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN POOR GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE NOT EXHIBITING GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY AND ARE NO LONGER SHOWING A TROUGH/LOW IN THE DAY 8-
10 RANGE. INSTEAD...WE`RE LOOKING AT INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND
A BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WITH ALL OF THE ENERGY/ACTION
EITHER OFFSHORE OR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SO FOR NOW...NO
INDICATION OF A WETTING EVENT THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS ALTHOUGH MORE
MODEL CHANGES IN THE DAY 8-10 RANGE ARE LIKELY.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL RETARD WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAY BY DAY TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  16  45  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................   1  39   3  43 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  11  41  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  12  51  14  54 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................   7  48  11  53 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  11  53  14  57 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  18  49  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  21  62  23  63 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   7  39  10  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  48  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  22  49  22  48 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   8  40   7  40 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  14  38  15  39 /   5   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -13  42  -5  41 /   5   0   0   0
TAOS............................   9  43  10  44 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  20  49  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  20  53  21  54 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  24  47  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  50  23  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  52  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  26  54  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  55  23  59 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  26  55  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  17  56  19  59 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  25  58  28  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  47  26  51 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  20  48  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  14  49  18  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  22  45  20  46 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  53  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  27  56  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  31  54  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  21  47  18  47 /   5   0   0   0
RATON...........................  19  52  17  51 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  20  55  19  54 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  24  54  21  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  27  50  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  26  54  22  53 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  28  58  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  30  59  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  58  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  28  59  25  54 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  28  61  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  29  61  25  55 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  66  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  32  64  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  32  61  27  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 061721 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1021 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL RETARD WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAY BY DAY TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKING TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
SCHEDULED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
LIMITED AFFECTS TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS COULD
POSSIBLY...EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF
THE STATE...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.

WHILE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN AND
WITH EACH OTHER...THE MESSAGE IS THE WEATHER MAY TAKE AN UNSETTLED
TURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION. NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY SO BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIBBON OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...STRETCHING GENERALLY FROM THE
JEMEZ MTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN
HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY WHERE HAINES
VALUES OF 5 EXIST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
INCREASE UP TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF NM WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
NM. TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE WORK WEEK. THOUGH THE RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. VENT RATES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. SHOULD BE
QUITE DRY UNDER THE RIDGE...AND THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...SHOULD SEE SOME REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT
WHERE SNOW MELT AND EVAPORATION IS OCCURRING.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 061128 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
428 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST NEAR 30KT BETWEEN KCQC AND KSXU THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL RETARD WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAY BY DAY TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKING TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
SCHEDULED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
LIMITED AFFECTS TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS COULD
POSSIBLY...EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF
THE STATE...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.

WHILE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN AND
WITH EACH OTHER...THE MESSAGE IS THE WEATHER MAY TAKE AN UNSETTLED
TURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION. NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY SO BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIBBON OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...STRETCHING GENERALLY FROM THE
JEMEZ MTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN
HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY WHERE HAINES
VALUES OF 5 EXIST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
INCREASE UP TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF NM WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
NM. TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE WORK WEEK. THOUGH THE RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. VENT RATES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. SHOULD BE
QUITE DRY UNDER THE RIDGE...AND THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...SHOULD SEE SOME REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT
WHERE SNOW MELT AND EVAPORATION IS OCCURRING.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 061128 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
428 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST NEAR 30KT BETWEEN KCQC AND KSXU THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL RETARD WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAY BY DAY TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKING TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
SCHEDULED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
LIMITED AFFECTS TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS COULD
POSSIBLY...EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF
THE STATE...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.

WHILE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN AND
WITH EACH OTHER...THE MESSAGE IS THE WEATHER MAY TAKE AN UNSETTLED
TURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION. NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY SO BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIBBON OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...STRETCHING GENERALLY FROM THE
JEMEZ MTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN
HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY WHERE HAINES
VALUES OF 5 EXIST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
INCREASE UP TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF NM WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
NM. TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE WORK WEEK. THOUGH THE RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. VENT RATES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. SHOULD BE
QUITE DRY UNDER THE RIDGE...AND THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...SHOULD SEE SOME REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT
WHERE SNOW MELT AND EVAPORATION IS OCCURRING.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 061128 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
428 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS
MAY GUST NEAR 30KT BETWEEN KCQC AND KSXU THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL RETARD WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAY BY DAY TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKING TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
SCHEDULED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
LIMITED AFFECTS TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS COULD
POSSIBLY...EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF
THE STATE...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.

WHILE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN AND
WITH EACH OTHER...THE MESSAGE IS THE WEATHER MAY TAKE AN UNSETTLED
TURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION. NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY SO BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIBBON OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...STRETCHING GENERALLY FROM THE
JEMEZ MTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN
HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY WHERE HAINES
VALUES OF 5 EXIST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
INCREASE UP TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF NM WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
NM. TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE WORK WEEK. THOUGH THE RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. VENT RATES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. SHOULD BE
QUITE DRY UNDER THE RIDGE...AND THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...SHOULD SEE SOME REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT
WHERE SNOW MELT AND EVAPORATION IS OCCURRING.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 060935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL RETARD WARMING IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB DAY BY DAY TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES
BY NEXT TUESDAY...AND REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TRACKING TO OUR NORTHEAST IS
SCHEDULED TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT ONLY
LIMITED AFFECTS TO TEMPERATURES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL. OTHERWISE THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD
OVER NEW MEXICO...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REACH ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY
TUESDAY...AND WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EAST CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME CIRRUS COULD
POSSIBLY...EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO THE RIDGE AND OVER PARTS OF
THE STATE...BUT THAT/S ABOUT IT.

WHILE EXTENDED FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM RUN TO RUN AND
WITH EACH OTHER...THE MESSAGE IS THE WEATHER MAY TAKE AN UNSETTLED
TURN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAIN STORY FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES...DRY
CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION. NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY...AND
PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY SO BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

RIBBON OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS...STRETCHING GENERALLY FROM THE
JEMEZ MTS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TODAY.
HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT...BUT CANT RULE OUT AN
HOUR OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IN WESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTY WHERE HAINES
VALUES OF 5 EXIST. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY
INCREASE UP TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS WELL NORTH OF NM WILL SLIDE INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS SUNDAY...AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO EASTERN
NM. TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS ACROSS THE
EAST...BUT OTHER AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND.

HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WILL THEN BE THE MAIN
WEATHER PLAYER FOR THE WORK WEEK. THOUGH THE RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES SOME
AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN POOR MIXING AND LIGHT WINDS. ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. WESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. VENT RATES
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY. SHOULD BE
QUITE DRY UNDER THE RIDGE...AND THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH
MIXING...SHOULD SEE SOME REFLECTION OF THIS AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT
WHERE SNOW MELT AND EVAPORATION IS OCCURRING.

34

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE NW...INCLUDING
FMN...WHERE PATCHY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z
SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN FMN TAF OTHER THAN MENTION
VCFG AND A FEW003 CLOUDS. LESS WIND SATURDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT
EXPECTED FROM CQC TO SANTA ROSA AND VAUGHN. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  13  43  17 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  34   4  38   2 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  38  11  40  12 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  46  10  50  11 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  43   7  47   9 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  48   9  51  11 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  48  15  49  15 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  57  21  60  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  35   3  37   3 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  19  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  42  20  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37   6  41   6 /   0   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  34   2  37   2 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  36   0  42  -1 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  38   7  42   8 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  45  19  47  15 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  45  16  50  18 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  40  18  46  19 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  19  48  20 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  21  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  24  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  19  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  21  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  49  23  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  46  23  52  25 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  52  24  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  19  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  43  20  48  23 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  16  49  17 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  21  45  19 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  24  52  22 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  28  57  25 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  33  53  27 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  48  18  43  16 /   0   5   0   0
RATON...........................  48  15  48  15 /   0   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  47  16  53  17 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  48  20  49  18 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  54  27  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  51  24  49  19 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  54  24  54  20 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  55  25  55  20 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  26  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  56  25  55  22 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  57  26  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  56  25  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  58  25  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  55  32  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  53  32  59  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 060525 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1025 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS. EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE NW...INCLUDING FMN...WHERE
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN FMN TAF OTHER THAN MENTION VCFG AND A
FEW003 CLOUDS. LESS WIND SATURDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED
FROM CQC TO SANTA ROSA AND VAUGHN. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING IN CHECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
CHANGE FROM NLY TO DOWNSLOPE WLY. VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE ALL
AREAS WITH BONE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKY. SNOW COVERED HIGHER VALLEYS LIKELY TO DROP TO NEAR THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS AS SNOW IS AN EFFICIENT LONGWAVE RADIATION EMITTER
AND THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO
SUBLIMATION.

WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINOR COOLING EXPECTED...MAINLY
EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE WITH A RIBBON OF
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS EWD TO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS/VAUGHN). THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM ABOUT 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT REMAINS ON TRACK. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CLIPPER LIKE WAVE WILL SCOOT OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ON
THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
LOWER AND LOOK FOR THAT LOWERING BY SUNSET. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS ACCORDINGLY.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE QUITE A STRONG COMPARED TO THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
BUT LOOK FOR SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING RH AND STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED WITH HAINES 4/5 VALUES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT LESS FANFARE
COMPARED TO TODAY/S VERSION. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT VENTILATION WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST AND
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH LOW VENT RATE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY WARM AND LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LOOK FOR LOWERING RH LEVELS. ANOTHER TRICKY RH FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS. EITHER
WAY...TRENDED DEWPOINT/RH LEVELS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS WAVE COULD RAISE VENT RATES FOR A
DAY BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WILL BE
MONITORING. OTHERWISE...PRETTY LOW VENTILATION RATES DURING THE
ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH ESTABLISHED INVERSIONS COULD IMPACT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 052342 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS. EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE NW...INCLUDING FMN...WHERE
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. LESS
WIND SATURDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED FROM CQC TO VAUGHN. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING IN CHECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
CHANGE FROM NLY TO DOWNSLOPE WLY. VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE ALL
AREAS WITH BONE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKY. SNOW COVERED HIGHER VALLEYS LIKELY TO DROP TO NEAR THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS AS SNOW IS AN EFFICIENT LONGWAVE RADIATION EMITTER
AND THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO
SUBLIMATION.

WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINOR COOLING EXPECTED...MAINLY
EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE WITH A RIBBON OF
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS EWD TO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS/VAUGHN). THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM ABOUT 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT REMAINS ON TRACK. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CLIPPER LIKE WAVE WILL SCOOT OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ON
THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
LOWER AND LOOK FOR THAT LOWERING BY SUNSET. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS ACCORDINGLY.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE QUITE A STRONG COMPARED TO THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
BUT LOOK FOR SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING RH AND STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED WITH HAINES 4/5 VALUES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT LESS FANFARE
COMPARED TO TODAY/S VERSION. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT VENTILATION WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST AND
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH LOW VENT RATE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY WARM AND LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LOOK FOR LOWERING RH LEVELS. ANOTHER TRICKY RH FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS. EITHER
WAY...TRENDED DEWPOINT/RH LEVELS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS WAVE COULD RAISE VENT RATES FOR A
DAY BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WILL BE
MONITORING. OTHERWISE...PRETTY LOW VENTILATION RATES DURING THE
ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH ESTABLISHED INVERSIONS COULD IMPACT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 052342 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS. EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE NW...INCLUDING FMN...WHERE
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. LESS
WIND SATURDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED FROM CQC TO VAUGHN. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING IN CHECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
CHANGE FROM NLY TO DOWNSLOPE WLY. VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE ALL
AREAS WITH BONE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKY. SNOW COVERED HIGHER VALLEYS LIKELY TO DROP TO NEAR THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS AS SNOW IS AN EFFICIENT LONGWAVE RADIATION EMITTER
AND THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO
SUBLIMATION.

WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINOR COOLING EXPECTED...MAINLY
EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE WITH A RIBBON OF
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS EWD TO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS/VAUGHN). THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM ABOUT 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT REMAINS ON TRACK. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CLIPPER LIKE WAVE WILL SCOOT OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ON
THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
LOWER AND LOOK FOR THAT LOWERING BY SUNSET. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS ACCORDINGLY.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE QUITE A STRONG COMPARED TO THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
BUT LOOK FOR SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING RH AND STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED WITH HAINES 4/5 VALUES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT LESS FANFARE
COMPARED TO TODAY/S VERSION. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT VENTILATION WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST AND
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH LOW VENT RATE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY WARM AND LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LOOK FOR LOWERING RH LEVELS. ANOTHER TRICKY RH FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS. EITHER
WAY...TRENDED DEWPOINT/RH LEVELS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS WAVE COULD RAISE VENT RATES FOR A
DAY BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WILL BE
MONITORING. OTHERWISE...PRETTY LOW VENTILATION RATES DURING THE
ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH ESTABLISHED INVERSIONS COULD IMPACT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 052342 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
442 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS. EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE NW...INCLUDING FMN...WHERE
PATCHY LOW CIGS AND VSBYS COULD DEVELOP AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. LESS
WIND SATURDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 30 KT EXPECTED FROM CQC TO VAUGHN. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING IN CHECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
CHANGE FROM NLY TO DOWNSLOPE WLY. VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE ALL
AREAS WITH BONE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKY. SNOW COVERED HIGHER VALLEYS LIKELY TO DROP TO NEAR THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS AS SNOW IS AN EFFICIENT LONGWAVE RADIATION EMITTER
AND THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO
SUBLIMATION.

WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINOR COOLING EXPECTED...MAINLY
EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE WITH A RIBBON OF
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS EWD TO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS/VAUGHN). THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM ABOUT 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT REMAINS ON TRACK. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CLIPPER LIKE WAVE WILL SCOOT OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ON
THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
LOWER AND LOOK FOR THAT LOWERING BY SUNSET. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS ACCORDINGLY.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE QUITE A STRONG COMPARED TO THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
BUT LOOK FOR SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING RH AND STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED WITH HAINES 4/5 VALUES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT LESS FANFARE
COMPARED TO TODAY/S VERSION. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT VENTILATION WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST AND
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH LOW VENT RATE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY WARM AND LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LOOK FOR LOWERING RH LEVELS. ANOTHER TRICKY RH FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS. EITHER
WAY...TRENDED DEWPOINT/RH LEVELS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS WAVE COULD RAISE VENT RATES FOR A
DAY BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WILL BE
MONITORING. OTHERWISE...PRETTY LOW VENTILATION RATES DURING THE
ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH ESTABLISHED INVERSIONS COULD IMPACT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 052219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS
UNDERWAY SATURDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING IN CHECK SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS UNDER BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW/TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN PLAINS CONTINUE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND SUNSET AS SFC WINDS
CHANGE FROM NLY TO DOWNSLOPE WLY. VERY COLD NIGHT IN STORE ALL
AREAS WITH BONE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...DECREASING WINDS AND CLEAR
SKY. SNOW COVERED HIGHER VALLEYS LIKELY TO DROP TO NEAR THURSDAY
MORNING`S LOWS AS SNOW IS AN EFFICIENT LONGWAVE RADIATION EMITTER
AND THE VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COOLING DUE TO
SUBLIMATION.

WARM UP STILL ON TRACK FOR ALL AREAS SATURDAY. A WEAK AND DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINOR COOLING EXPECTED...MAINLY
EASTERN PLAINS. BOTH NAM12 AND GFS20 CONTINUE WITH A RIBBON OF
MODERATE NW WINDS NEAR MTN TOP LEVEL FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC IN THE USUAL SPOTS FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIA/MANZANO MTS EWD TO THE ADJACENT CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS (CLINES CORNERS/VAUGHN). THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTS TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE EWD
MONDAY AND MORESO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACNW DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
SATURDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DEVELOPS A CLOSED CIRCULATION NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS SUNDAY. OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SOLUTION BUT GENERAL IDEA OF THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM ABOUT 8 TO 10 DAYS OUT REMAINS ON TRACK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CLIPPER LIKE WAVE WILL SCOOT OUT OVER THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. A MODESTLY STRONG NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE FOUND ON
THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL
LOWER AND LOOK FOR THAT LOWERING BY SUNSET. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS/RH LEVELS ACCORDINGLY.
DOESNT APPEAR TO BE QUITE A STRONG COMPARED TO THE EVENT ON THURSDAY
BUT LOOK FOR SOME WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN HUMIDITY. THE COMBINATION OF
LOWERING RH AND STRONG WIND IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME LOCALIZED
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED WITH HAINES 4/5 VALUES AND NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A LARGELY DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STILL
LOOKING AT ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BUT LESS FANFARE
COMPARED TO TODAY/S VERSION. MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT VENTILATION WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE DUE
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.

A STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST AND
INTER MOUNTAIN REGION DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS PATTERN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE HEART OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF
THE STATE ALTHOUGH LOW VENT RATE IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. TEMPS WILL
CERTAINLY WARM AND LOOK FOR ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. A MODERATE TO
STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE FOUND UNDER THE RIDGE AND
LOOK FOR LOWERING RH LEVELS. ANOTHER TRICKY RH FORECAST DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW MELT AND ATMOSPHERIC HEATING EFFECTS. EITHER
WAY...TRENDED DEWPOINT/RH LEVELS BELOW CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN SOME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS
TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THIS WAVE COULD RAISE VENT RATES FOR A
DAY BUT WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE. WILL BE
MONITORING. OTHERWISE...PRETTY LOW VENTILATION RATES DURING THE
ENTIRE WEEK. HIGH TEMPS WOULD REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ALTHOUGH ESTABLISHED INVERSIONS COULD IMPACT SOME VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................   6  38  16  42 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE........................... -15  33   4  37 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  -2  37  11  41 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................   1  44   9  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  -5  41   6  46 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................   1  46  10  51 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................   2  45  13  49 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  12  55  20  60 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA........................... -13  33   5  36 /   0   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  10  40  19  46 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................   9  41  21  47 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... -12  34   8  39 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  -2  32   8  37 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE...................... -28  37  -3  41 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................ -10  37   5  41 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................   7  44  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................   8  45  16  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  12  41  21  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................   9  43  18  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  16  44  24  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  17  46  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  12  47  21  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  17  46  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................   9  48  18  56 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  17  46  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  18  51  24  58 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  15  42  23  47 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  11  44  18  49 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............   0  44  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  12  40  22  44 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  10  45  22  52 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  16  49  26  57 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  18  47  29  53 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................   8  46  20  42 /   0   0   5   0
RATON...........................   5  48  19  47 /   0   0   5   0
SPRINGER........................   8  52  20  52 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................   9  48  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  18  55  28  44 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  15  52  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  18  56  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  17  55  29  55 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  18  59  27  54 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  19  57  29  56 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  18  58  29  59 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  18  58  29  58 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  17  59  27  63 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  20  55  32  62 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  17  53  30  59 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 051804 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 051804 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 051804 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HRS. EXCEPTIONS INCLUDE LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO SNOWFALL. THE OTHER
BEING ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT. BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AN AREA OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF FMN THIS
MORNING. THERE IS SOME INDICATION ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CIGS WOULD
DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS FMN LATE TONIGHT. WILL
MONITOR THAT TREND CLOSELY. USED VCFG IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT AT TCC EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
LOWERING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 051140 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE PEAKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE RATON
RIDGE AND JOHNSON MESA WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A STRAY
SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC...BUT THIS
WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY WITH NO LONG DURATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR AROUND DUSK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 051140 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE PEAKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE RATON
RIDGE AND JOHNSON MESA WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A STRAY
SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC...BUT THIS
WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY WITH NO LONG DURATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR AROUND DUSK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 051140 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
440 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE CROSSED NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO BY MID DAY TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT SPILLING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS IN THE PLAINS. SNOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE PEAKS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE RATON
RIDGE AND JOHNSON MESA WHERE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH PERIODIC MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. A STRAY
SHOWER MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS KTCC...BUT THIS
WILL BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY WITH NO LONG DURATION IMPACTS
EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CLEAR AROUND DUSK WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 051023
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR...GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AND SOME MEAGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN DOMINATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND STEERS STORMS AWAY FROM NEW
MEXICO THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
SEASONAL VALUES OR ABOVE BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER DAY...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO
DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EAST...BUT OVERALL NOT ANTICIPATING SPEEDS
WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. OTHERWISE THERE COULD BE SOME
MOSTLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND
ALONG THE FAR NORTHEAST...SUCH AS RATON PASS/SIERRA GRANDE WHERE
THEY COULD SEE POSSIBLY AN INCH OR TWO...BUT NOT THINKING IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTER TYPE HIGHLIGHTS. HRRR DOES SUGGEST
SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF WHICH PAINTS ISOLATED MEASURABLE
AMOUNTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL...BOTH WHERE CURRENT GRIDS HAVE LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT POPS TODAY. SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION TRENDING TOWARDS GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT PLUMMET AGAIN FOR THE NORTHERN MTS...BUT
GUIDANCE DOESN/T INDICATE IT WILL BE QUITE AS COLD AS THURSDAY
MORNING LOWS WERE. ANOTHER DRY WAVE SENDS A FRONT INTO NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY BUT COOLING EFFECTS MORE LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEREAFTER...DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND WILL DOMINATE NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUND TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY TUESDAY
OVERALL. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS ALLOWS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN INTO NEW MEXICO AHEAD OF A WEAK
TROUGH STRETCHED THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF DEPICTS MORE OF
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM...DRIER AND COOLER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ONE QUICK-MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWUNG THROUGH NORTHERN NM EARLIER
LAST EVENING...AND A SECOND ONE IS QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON ITS HEELS
AND WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NM BY LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
ALSO DROPPING SOUTH INTO NM...AND THIS WILL BRING A TEMPORARY
CESSATION TO THE WARMING TREND. SOME LOWER-BASED CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH
CENTRAL NM...GRADUALLY EXTENDING INTO NORTHEASTERN NM BY MID DAY.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY A
COUPLE OF INCHES FORESEEN NEAR THE RATON RIDGE/PASS. AS THE COLD
FRONT SPILLS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...SOME WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF
NM. IT WILL BE HERE WHERE VENTILATION RATES WILL BE BOOSTED...BUT
ELSEWHERE EXPECT SMOKE DISPERSION RATES TO REMAIN IN THE POOR
CATEGORY TODAY.

AS THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS MORE WEST NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...IT WILL
RELAX AND BECOME MORE STABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS AND CONSEQUENTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH SATURDAYS HIGHS
RISING 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE TODAYS. THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
OBSERVE THE LARGEST GAINS WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS. STIFF
SURFACE/20FT BREEZES WILL STILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COME LOWER HUMIDITY. PATCHES OF CENTRAL NM
AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ZONES WILL OBSERVE MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF 10-20
PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE JUXTAPOSED OVER ANY CRITICAL
RH AREAS AT THIS TIME. POOR VENTILATION IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

THEN THE FLOW RETURNS TO A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL COMPONENT FROM THE
NORTHWEST HOSTING YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS PERTURBATION
SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM EARLY SUNDAY...BUT STILL THE
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO  SLIP INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY
SUNDAY...BUT THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO DISRUPT THE
FORECAST AREA FROM REACHING NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. AFTER SUNDAY...THE THEME FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE A
DRY...TRANQUIL...AND WARMER PATTERN. VENTILATION RATES WILL
SUFFER...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS
AT TCC AND ROW MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT
AT TCC AND ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NE FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS.
40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  34  10  38  17 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  28 -11  34   0 /   5   0   0   0
CUBA............................  30   3  37  13 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  39   1  47  10 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  35  -2  43   7 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  39   0  47  10 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  35   6  46  15 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  46  12  53  18 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  25 -10  33   6 /  10   0   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  32  13  40  22 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  35  13  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  -9  36   7 /  10   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  22 -17  34  -2 /  10   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  25 -21  37  -5 /  20   0   0   5
TAOS............................  31  -7  38   8 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  33   9  43  19 /  10   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  36   8  44  18 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  32  10  40  19 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  12  42  20 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  38  15  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  18  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  12  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  14  47  22 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  13  48  19 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  40  17  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  45  20  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  13  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  37  14  43  23 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38   1  46  15 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  32  13  40  22 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  39  17  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  20  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  38  21  47  30 /   0   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  32   4  48  19 /  30   0   0   5
RATON...........................  36   3  49  17 /  20   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  35   6  49  18 /  10   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  34   8  50  22 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  37  18  56  25 /  10   0   0   0
ROY.............................  38  15  54  24 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  42  16  56  25 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  43  17  57  26 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  18  59  26 /   0   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  44  20  57  28 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  45  19  58  28 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  46  18  58  27 /   5   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  50  17  61  27 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  47  22  57  32 /   0   5   0   0
ELK.............................  44  21  54  31 /   0   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 050556 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1056 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND ROW
MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT AT TCC AND
ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NE
FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 050556 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1056 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND ROW
MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT AT TCC AND
ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NE
FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 050556 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1056 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE STATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS FRIDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND ROW
MID TO LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT AT TCC AND
ROW DURING THE DAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NE
FRIDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 050001 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AT TCC AND 25 KT AT ROW. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 050001 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AT TCC AND 25 KT AT ROW. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 050001 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
501 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. MID AND HIGH LVL
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT AT TCC AND 25 KT AT ROW. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 042211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEFORE A WARMING TREND GETS UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL
STEER STORMS WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MORE BARK THAN BITE FROM MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW SPOTS IN
ERN UT REPORTED LIGHT SNOW DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
TRANSLATE THIS FEATURE E-SEWD NEAR THE COLORADO LINE OVERNIGHT.
KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS FAR NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE NRN SANGRES AND NE
HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NLY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHTS. DRY NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND...LEADING
TO BREEZY NW WINDS FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EWD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPS IN ERN NM SUNDAY...LOWERING TEMPS BACK BELOW CLIMO.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE/HIGH WILL BUILD OVER CALIFORNIA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
BLOCKING FEATURE WILL STEER STORMS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF NM
DURING THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ALL AREAS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH
MODELS INDICATING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTED THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. THE DRY INTRUSION WILL
SHIFT SOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS AS BEST ONE CAN BUT LOOK FOR SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITIONAL CHANGES IN HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOOKING AT SOME LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH AND HAINES 4/5 READINGS
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL/SE PLAINS SATURDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THAT TREND.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO EASTERN AREAS
TONIGHT. GUSTIER WIND WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRI
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARENT EXPECTED TO CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH WITH
MANY AREAS ACTUALLY SEEING A FEW DEGREE INCREASE COMPARED TO TODAY/S
READINGS. THE PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS LOOKS TO BE A DRIER ONE. PERHAPS A FEW MTN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. IF WETTING PRECIPITATION WERE TO
OCCUR...PROBABLY WOULD HAPPEN ACROSS THE FAR NE BUT NOT LIKELY.
VENTILATION WILL TREND UP.

RESIDUAL STRONG WIND ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE WAVE DEPARTS ON SATURDAY. BUMPED UP WIND SPEEDS A TAD ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS. MIXING HEIGHT VALUES DROP
SOME SO VENTILATION RATES ACTUALLY LOWER. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW RH VALUES ARE COMING OUT IN THE
GRIDDED FORECAST FOR THE EC/SE PLAINS. TEMPS WARM AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING/FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL MOST LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY DUE TO
THE RECENT PRECIPITATION OVER PART OF THE AREA AND THE LACK OF
CONTINUOUS STRONG WIND/LOW RH/HIGHER HAINES VALUES.

THE RESIDUAL STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EAST. RH VALUES SHOULD RISE MOST AREAS. THE OVERALL SFC
WIND FLOW SHOULD DECREASE ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTINESS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. VENTILATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE ALTHOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPACT THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW MORE WEAK WAVE IMPULSES
WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST BUT NOT
LIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
WHILE RH VALUES DROP. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON SNOW MELT
THUS INCREASING DEWPOINTS/RH VALUES. BUT THE PATTERN SUGGESTS
EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS. THUS...WENT BELOW RH
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT TREND.
DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER AND
MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO GET
BROKE DOWN AND PROBABLY A BIT EARLIER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT MODELS
SHOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  11  34  10  39 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE........................... -10  28 -13  34 /  10   5   0   0
CUBA............................   6  32   3  37 /   5   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................   1  38   1  46 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................   0  34  -1  42 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................   2  39   1  48 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................   7  36   9  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  12  48  13  55 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  -5  26  -9  33 /  20  10   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  12  33  13  41 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  12  33  13  42 /   0  10   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  -1  26  -8  34 /  20  10   0   0
RED RIVER.......................   4  21   4  33 /  20  10   0   0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -14  26 -26  37 /  10  10   0   0
TAOS............................  -3  31  -9  37 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  11  32  10  45 /   0  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  14  39  11  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  15  34  16  41 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  14  37  12  43 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  18  39  18  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  20  42  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  15  43  15  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  18  42  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  11  44  10  49 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  20  42  20  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  22  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  35  18  42 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  14  37  14  44 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  11  37   6  44 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  12  33  13  40 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  17  39  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  19  44  20  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  20  39  21  47 /   0   0   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  31  11  46 /  10  20   0   0
RATON...........................  13  36   9  49 /  10  10   0   0
SPRINGER........................  15  41  12  52 /   0   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  12  37  13  50 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  20  40  19  55 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  19  41  18  52 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  25  48  23  57 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  24  47  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  48  21  61 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  23  46  22  57 /   0   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  22  48  20  56 /   0   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  21  49  19  58 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  20  52  20  61 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  22  48  22  57 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  20  45  21  54 /   0   0   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 041741 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 041741 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 041741 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PERIOD OF MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MID/LATE EVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HRS. A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUNCH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRI MORNING.
LOOK FOR GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TCC AND EVENTUALLY ROW BY LATE
MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 041135 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
435 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS HAS CREPT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING. THIS PATCH
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ONCE
WESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COUPLE OF FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE STATE AND LIKELY SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
BRIEF MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY/CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY IN ANY PASSING SHOWERS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 041135 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
435 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS HAS CREPT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE
SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING. THIS PATCH
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DWINDLE INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS ONCE
WESTERLY BREEZES INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT
BREEZES IN MOST LOCATIONS. A COUPLE OF FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...PRODUCING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE STATE AND LIKELY SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SOME
BRIEF MVFR/IFR REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY/CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY FRIDAY IN ANY PASSING SHOWERS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 041006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND COLD FRONTS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
AFFECT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOK FOR
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS THESE FEATURES PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE SLIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THEREAFTER...WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REBOUNDING TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

ONE MORE ROUND OR TWO OF DISTURBANCES WITH WHAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING EVEN MORE LIMITED MOISTURE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
INHERITED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT STILL GOOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK
ON FRIDAY/S IN AREAL COVERAGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH JUST NOTICED THE 06Z GFS FORECAST IS A BIT
WETTER WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE THAN THE 00Z RUN. NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST NM WILL BE FAVORED FOR SPOTTY SNOW THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY SLIGHT. HOWEVER...GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT/FRIDAY...AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLDER AT LEAST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...THAN TONIGHT/S FORECAST.

ANOTHER WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST...BUT WILL
BRING A REINFORCEMENT OF SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
NORTHWEST BREEZES. BY SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD START TO DEFLECT THE SEEMINGLY
ENDLESS WAVES AND AFFECTS OF THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO OUR
EAST. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY CREEP OVER NEW MEXICO NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO ABOVE
AVERAGE. LATE NEXT WEEK...THE GFS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LOW WILL SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE NEAR BAJA CA. THE ECMWF HAS A SIMILAR FEATURE BUT
IT/S FARTHER NORTH...OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DEWPOINTS HAVE PLUMMETED AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS HAS MOVED INTO NM.
WINDS ARE LIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...LEADING TO FRIGID TEMPERATURES...IN FACT THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON FOR SEVERAL LOCALES. DESPITE THIS COLD START...TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM 3 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS. THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW MINIMUM
RH IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NM
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL OBSERVE
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WERE DECREASED FOR
TODAYS FORECAST DUE TO LESS STRENGTH ALOFT...BUT STILL SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.
POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

DISCUSSION ON A WAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY HAS BEEN A TOPIC OF PREVIOUS
SHIFTS...AND DETAILS ARE FINALLY STARTING TO BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR
AS WE NEAR THE PERIOD. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A QUICK
ONE-TWO PUNCH AS DISTURBANCES QUICKLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NM...THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER NORTHERN NM THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL ONE INTO
NORTHEAST NM BY MIDDLE OF THE DAY FRIDAY. ARRIVAL OF AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL PUT THE WARMING TREND ON HIATUS WHILE SOME SCANT
SNOW SHOWERS CLIP THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. PREVIOUS SHIFT
INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS
FRIDAY...AND THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40
TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE STRONGER WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WOULD BOOST VENTILATION RATES...BUT REMAINING
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE POOR CATEGORY.

A MORE RELAXED WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL YIELD WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE EASTERN PLAINS
OF NM WILL ACTUALLY RISE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL STRONG BREEZES
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS...MOST OF NM WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH POOR VENTILATION BEING THE MAJORITY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT CROSSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS TO
INCREASE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF
NM. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SNEAK INTO EASTERN PARTS OF
THE STATE SUNDAY...BUT OTHER THAN SOME SHIFTS IN WIND
DIRECTION...MINIMAL TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY. INTO NEXT WEEK A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL LEAD TO A DRY...TRANQUIL...AND
WARMER SPELL FOR NM.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG OVER THE
NE THIS EVENING INCLUDING CAO. BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY N AND E OF
TCC THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK AMONG THE TAF SITES
IS LVS AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TCC. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  31  10  35  12 /   5  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  28  -5  30  -5 /  10  10   5   0
CUBA............................  29   6  32   2 /   5  10  10   0
GALLUP..........................  36   3  39   4 /   5   5   5   0
EL MORRO........................  35   2  35   2 /   5   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  38   6  40   5 /   5   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  39  10  37  10 /   5   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  46  15  48  17 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  25  -6  28  -7 /  10  20  10   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  32  11  33  10 /   5   5  10   0
PECOS...........................  34  11  33  11 /   0   5  10   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  -2  26  -4 /   5  10  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  25  -3  22  -9 /  10  20  20   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  27  -8  26 -14 /   5  10  20   5
TAOS............................  27   2  31  -4 /   0  10  10   0
MORA............................  33  11  32   5 /   0   5  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  33   8  38  10 /   0   5   5   0
SANTA FE........................  30  10  34  10 /   0   5  10   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  12  38  12 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  17  39  17 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  38  20  42  20 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  40  15  43  14 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  39  15  42  14 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  41  20  44  19 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  38  18  41  18 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  44  19  47  21 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  32  15  35  15 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  34  15  37  16 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  10  38   8 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  32  13  34  14 /   0   0   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  17  39  16 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  21  43  21 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  39  22  40  21 /   0   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  38  13  33   9 /   0  10  20   0
RATON...........................  36  12  37   6 /   0  10  10   0
SPRINGER........................  36  13  37   8 /   0   5  10   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  13  38  10 /   0   5  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  41  19  42  18 /   0   5  10   0
ROY.............................  39  17  40  15 /   0   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  42  21  45  16 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  44  21  46  17 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  23  48  18 /   0   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  45  21  47  19 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  46  22  49  20 /   0   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  45  20  48  19 /   0   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  47  20  52  19 /   0   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  45  22  48  22 /   0   5   5   5
ELK.............................  43  21  45  21 /   0   5   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 040546
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG OVER THE
NE THIS EVENING INCLUDING CAO. BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY N AND E OF
TCC THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK AMONG THE TAF SITES
IS LVS AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TCC. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...501 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NE/EC WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL. CLAYTON REPORTED 0.4 INCHES WHEN THE SNOWFALL
WENT THRU THERE...SO HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS KTCC. HRRR AND NAM MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DIMINISH
BY 06Z. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...456 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE NM
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES TCC. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK IS LVS AND
FMN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.

ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.

VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 040546
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG OVER THE
NE THIS EVENING INCLUDING CAO. BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY N AND E OF
TCC THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK AMONG THE TAF SITES
IS LVS AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TCC. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...501 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NE/EC WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL. CLAYTON REPORTED 0.4 INCHES WHEN THE SNOWFALL
WENT THRU THERE...SO HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS KTCC. HRRR AND NAM MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DIMINISH
BY 06Z. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...456 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE NM
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES TCC. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK IS LVS AND
FMN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.

ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.

VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 040546
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1046 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OF LIFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG OVER THE
NE THIS EVENING INCLUDING CAO. BELIEVE THEY WILL STAY N AND E OF
TCC THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT COULD BE A CLOSE CALL. GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. WHERE THERE IS FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS/VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK AMONG THE TAF SITES
IS LVS AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TCC. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...501 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NE/EC WHERE SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL. CLAYTON REPORTED 0.4 INCHES WHEN THE SNOWFALL
WENT THRU THERE...SO HAVE ADDED SOME VERY LIGHT ACCUMS AS FAR
SOUTH AS KTCC. HRRR AND NAM MODEL PROGS SUGGEST THIS WILL DIMINISH
BY 06Z. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...456 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD MVFR CONDITIONS OVER A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF NE NM
THROUGH ABOUT 6Z DUE TO LIGHT SNOW. THIS INCLUDES TCC. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND FRESH SNOWPACK MEANS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VIS RESTRICTIONS. MOST AT RISK IS LVS AND
FMN. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT INTO TAF FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A QUIET AND COLD PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS
AREAWIDE. SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER FOR AWHILE INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT FOR PRECIPITATION...NOTHING THAT
SIGNIFICANT. YET ANOTHER COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCES WILL
WILL BRUSH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY QUITE
LIMITED...NOT MUCH OTHER THAN A FEW SHOW SHOWERS OR PATCHES OF
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AND LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
OF THE STATE. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...LOOKING AHEAD THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE MUCH LESS
UNSETTLED THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS PAST WEEK. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NE NM SHOULD BOW
OUT GRACEFULLY LATER TONIGHT. TONIGHT WILL BE ONE OF THE COLDEST
NIGHTS OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH SOME MINIMUMS IN THE COLDER MTN
VALLEYS OF THE NORTH LIKELY TO PLUMMET TO BETWEEN 20 AND 35
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A BIT OF FREEZING FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IN SOME OF THESE LOCALES...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH AND ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE QUITE
LOCALIZED.

ONE MORE BOUT WITH A COUPLE OF MOISTURE LIMITED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
EXPECTED FOR THE THU TO FRI PERIOD AND THE FCST MODELS ARE FINALLY
IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN THAT THEY WILL BRUSH THE N CENTRAL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE. ONLY TRIMMED THE MOSTLY LOW POPS A BIT MORE
OVER THAT WHICH WAS PARED OFF OVER THE LAST 2 MAIN FCST
PACKAGES...KEEPING COVERAGE SOMEWHAT LARGER THAN MAJORITY OF FCST
MODELS INDICATED OUT OF CONCERN THAT...AT OR NEAR THE LAST
MINUTE...THERE STILL MAY BE SOMEWHAT OF A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
TRACK OF THESE IMPULSES AS SEEMS TO OCCUR A BIT MORE OFTEN THAN
NOT. BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS TO BE THE CASE AREAWIDE INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK. BY THE WEEKEND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...SATURDAY MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND THEN
SUNDAY MORE SO ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. FURTHER WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST MID OR LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS THE RULE AND A CONTINUED PRECIP FREE
SCENARIO WITH SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOT FAR WEST OF THE
STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE RH/DEWPOINT GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL SNEAK IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTH. A PACIFIC WAVE PASSAGE ON FRIDAY WILL BEAT IT BACK SOME
BUT THEN IT SHOULD RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
VERY TRICKY RH FORECASTING SO PLAN FOR WILD SWINGS. OTHERWISE VERY
FEW CHANGES OVERALL AS THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AND DRIER.

VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE IS STILL
NOT FAST ENOUGH TO RAISE MIXING HEIGHTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAISE
BOTH MIXING HEIGHT AND TRANSPORT WIND ON FRIDAY. THE FRIDAY VENT
RATE FORECAST HAS JUMPED AROUND THE PAST FEW DAYS SO PLAN ON SOME
CONTINUED VARIABILITY UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THE WAVE BETTER. VENT
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEEKEND. A VERY
STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST COAST AND ACT TO
DEFLECT MOST OF THE SYSTEM PASSAGES TO THE EAST. MODELS STILL SHOW
WAVE FOR LATER SUNDAY AND IF IT WERE TO TRACK BACK TO THE
WEST...THEN VENT RATES WOULD IMPROVE.

RIDGING IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE AGAIN...THE PLACEMENT OF
THE RIDGE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN TERMS OF VENT RATE FORECASTS. IF IT
WERE TO STAY FURTHER WEST THEN VENT RATES WOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.
EITHER WAY...THEY LOOK PRETTY LOW NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO WHAT
OCCURRED AND WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK. A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION WILL ALSO BE FOUND WITH THE RIDGE. DEWPOINT FORECASTS FROM
THE MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO HIGH SO LOWERED THEM ACROSS THE BOARD.
SNOW MELT WILL MAKE IT TRICKY ACROSS THE LOW/MID ELEVATIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STATUS SOMETIME
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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