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000
FXUS65 KABQ 291132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR VSBYS IN FG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORENO VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF KAXX THRU APPROX 14Z. LATER TODAY...HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING THAT A SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...THOUGH FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
STORM MOTION WILL VARY...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR VSBYS IN FG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORENO VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF KAXX THRU APPROX 14Z. LATER TODAY...HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING THAT A SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...THOUGH FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
STORM MOTION WILL VARY...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR VSBYS IN FG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORENO VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF KAXX THRU APPROX 14Z. LATER TODAY...HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING THAT A SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...THOUGH FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
STORM MOTION WILL VARY...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LIFR VSBYS IN FG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MORENO VALLEY IN THE
VICINITY OF KAXX THRU APPROX 14Z. LATER TODAY...HI-RES MODELS
SHOWING THAT A SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE...THOUGH FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
STORM MOTION WILL VARY...BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT. BRIEF MVFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH BY 06Z.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH
PUSHING THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR
SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF
STORMS ON SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  61  88  59 /   5  10  20  40
DULCE...........................  83  50  84  50 /  30  10  10  50
CUBA............................  82  52  83  52 /  40  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  86  54  84  53 /  20  20  60  50
EL MORRO........................  82  52  80  51 /  20  40  40  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  82  53 /  20  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  53  81  55 /  20  40  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  59  84  60 /  40  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  48  77  48 /  50  20  10  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  57  82  57 /  30  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  79  53  81  55 /  50  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  49  81  50 /  40  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  68  41  71  43 /  50  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  43  75  45 /  50  20  10  10
TAOS............................  81  49  82  51 /  10  10   5  10
MORA............................  75  50  80  53 /  50  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  86  54  87  55 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  82  56  83  57 /  40  20   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  57  86  58 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  66 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  62  90  63 /  10  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  63  89  64 /  10  20   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  61  91  62 /  10  20   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  87  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  89  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  83  59  84  59 /  50  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  58  86  59 /  50  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  53  85  54 /  20  10   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  55  82  57 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  57  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  59  85  61 /  30  10   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  55  78  58 /  50  20   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  82  53  86  56 /  10   5   0   0
RATON...........................  85  52  88  55 /  10   5   0  10
SPRINGER........................  85  54  88  56 /  10   5   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  52  83  55 /  20  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  87  60  91  62 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  85  56  88  58 /  10   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  91  63  93  64 /  10   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  89  60  91  63 /  10   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  62  94  65 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  89  61  91  63 /  20   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  90  60  92  64 /  20  10   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  63  92  63 /  10   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  92  65  95  65 /  20  10   0   5
PICACHO.........................  86  59  88  61 /  20  10   0  10
ELK.............................  81  57  82  58 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH
PUSHING THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR
SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF
STORMS ON SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  61  88  59 /   5  10  20  40
DULCE...........................  83  50  84  50 /  30  10  10  50
CUBA............................  82  52  83  52 /  40  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  86  54  84  53 /  20  20  60  50
EL MORRO........................  82  52  80  51 /  20  40  40  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  82  53 /  20  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  53  81  55 /  20  40  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  59  84  60 /  40  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  48  77  48 /  50  20  10  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  57  82  57 /  30  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  79  53  81  55 /  50  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  49  81  50 /  40  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  68  41  71  43 /  50  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  43  75  45 /  50  20  10  10
TAOS............................  81  49  82  51 /  10  10   5  10
MORA............................  75  50  80  53 /  50  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  86  54  87  55 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  82  56  83  57 /  40  20   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  57  86  58 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  66 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  62  90  63 /  10  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  63  89  64 /  10  20   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  61  91  62 /  10  20   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  87  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  89  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  83  59  84  59 /  50  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  58  86  59 /  50  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  53  85  54 /  20  10   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  55  82  57 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  57  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  59  85  61 /  30  10   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  55  78  58 /  50  20   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  82  53  86  56 /  10   5   0   0
RATON...........................  85  52  88  55 /  10   5   0  10
SPRINGER........................  85  54  88  56 /  10   5   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  52  83  55 /  20  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  87  60  91  62 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  85  56  88  58 /  10   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  91  63  93  64 /  10   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  89  60  91  63 /  10   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  62  94  65 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  89  61  91  63 /  20   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  90  60  92  64 /  20  10   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  63  92  63 /  10   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  92  65  95  65 /  20  10   0   5
PICACHO.........................  86  59  88  61 /  20  10   0  10
ELK.............................  81  57  82  58 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM COVERAGE WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TODAY ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTOS. THE FAVORED STORM COVERAGE
AREAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND FAVOR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER ON SUNDAY. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO
THE STATE ON MONDAY AND SHIFT THE MAIN STORM COVERAGE FURTHER
EAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY. THE
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME...ALBEIT DISJOINTED AT TIMES... WILL REMAIN
OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
CONCENTRATED MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND AS A
PACIFIC TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MASSAGED POPS/SKY COVER AND WEATHER HERE AND THERE BUT NO MAJOR
CHANGES. THE OVERALL WEATHER THEME APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR. A LITTLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD
TODAY. THE MAIN FOCUS ON SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN THIRD AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THAT. THE PACIFIC TROUGH
WILL NUDGE CLOSER TO THE STATE ON MONDAY THUS SHIFTING THE MAIN
MOISTURE PLUME A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE PAC
TROUGH WOULD REFORM OR DEEPEN TO THE WEST TUESDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME OVER SOME PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS AN
ACTIVE PERIOD BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY AT THIS TIME. WILL
BE FOLLOWING THE UPPER HIGH PROGRESSION BECAUSE ONCE IT
CONSOLIDATES/LESS HIGH CENTERS/ AND MOVES EAST OF THE STATE THEN A
JUICIER MOISTURE FLOW SHOULD ENSUE. THAT APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEKEND OR DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

SOME MODEL DISPCREPANCIES FOR TODAYS POP FORECAST. HRRR IS MUCH
MORE BULLISH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS COMPARED TO THE NAM/GFS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
POISED TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE SO WOULD EXPECT SOME OF THIS AIR
TO MAKE IT INTO EASTERN NM AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. DESPITE THIS
IMPACT...DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT MORE ACROSS THE EC/SE
PLAINS THANKS TO THE LATEST HRRR FORECAST. EITHER WAY...MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST. STEERING FLOW FOR THE
STORMS APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LIGHT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE HIGH CENTER. ONE NOTABLE STEERING FLOW DIRECTION WOULD BE THE
NE FLOW ORIGINATING FROM THE SANDIA MTNS. THIS FLOW USUALLY BODES
WELL FOR PORTIONS OF THE ABQ NE HEIGHTS SO FOOTHILL RECREATIONALISTS
SHOULD BE COGNIZANT OF THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT. ALSO BEEFED UP QPF
AND POPS ACROSS THE GILA REGION AND NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SINCE THE CELLS SHOULD TRAVEL SOUTHWARD OVER THE SACS...RESIDENCE
TIME MAY NOT BE ALL THAT MUCH...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH IN TERMS
OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE GILA REGION. BASED ON THE LATEST NASASPORT SOIL MOISTURE
IMAGERY...CATRON COUNTY APPEARS TO BE RATHER MOIST AS WELL AS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MTNS/EAST SLOPES.

NOT A LOT OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LATEST MODELING. THE
INITIAL PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY/MONDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND A DIFFUSE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL FAVOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SUNDAY. THEN SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY BASED ON THE INITIAL PAC TROUGH EJECTION.

THE PAC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TO THE WEST OF THE STATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRETTY TYPICAL PATTERN FOR
SEPTEMBER...AT LEAST BASED ON THE PAST FEW YEARS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUE SH/TS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES
WILL DEPEND ON WEAK VORTICE WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO AS WELL
AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE PAC TROUGH PROGRESSION...THE
UPPER HIGH WOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE ALTHOUGH THIS
PROGRESSION WILL MOST LIKELY JUMP AROUND A BIT BECAUSE THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARDER TIME WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE PAC
TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. EITHER WAY...WOULD EXPECT THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME...ORIGINATING FROM MEXICO...TO BECOME
MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OR BECOMING LESS DIFFUSE.
WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT ON SEE ON THAT ONE. DECIDED TO INCREASE
TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SUPER BLEND LEVELS DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO LOWERED MIN TEMPS IN THE HIGHER MTN
BASINS SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY DUE TO LOWERING DEWPOINTS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM
TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL STILL BE
SPOTTY...WITH THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS BEING THE EXCEPTION. HI-RES
MODELS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...IT SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OR AS ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO SHIFT
A BIT TODAY...PERHAPS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST ACROSS THE
EAST AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTH ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER HIGH IS STILL ON TRACK TO ELONGATE FROM SW TO NE FROM SE
AZ TO NE NM ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CENTROID OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM OR WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM AND EASTERN
AZ. APPEARS THAT THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE AND SOME SPOTTY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-10 MPH.

THE MOISTURE PLUME STILL LOOKS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...
FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS. STORM MOTION WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE
ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OR SW TO NE.

APPEARS THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL STILL BE HOVERING OVER NM ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH NOT AS ROBUST AS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WILL STILL LOOK
FOR STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
FARTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN NM. THE GFS HANGS ONTO A DISORGANIZED PLUME ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE HIGH OVER WEST TEXAS...THOUGH BY THURSDAY...THE HIGH
WEAKENS ALLOWING THAT DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN NM. WITH MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES OF LATE...HARD TO HAVE A DEFINITE ANSWER...BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER LATTER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

VERY LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER WED/THURS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NM IF THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN COMES TO
FRUITION. WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN POOR TO
FAIR VENT RATES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM TODAY...BUT SHOULD GENERALLY
IMPROVE INTO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE NEXT WEEK. ONE EXCEPTION
MAY BE ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH
PUSHING THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR
SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF
STORMS ON SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  61  88  59 /   5  10  20  40
DULCE...........................  83  50  84  50 /  30  10  10  50
CUBA............................  82  52  83  52 /  40  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  86  54  84  53 /  20  20  60  50
EL MORRO........................  82  52  80  51 /  20  40  40  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  82  53 /  20  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  53  81  55 /  20  40  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  59  84  60 /  40  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  48  77  48 /  50  20  10  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  57  82  57 /  30  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  79  53  81  55 /  50  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  49  81  50 /  40  20  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  68  41  71  43 /  50  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  43  75  45 /  50  20  10  10
TAOS............................  81  49  82  51 /  10  10   5  10
MORA............................  75  50  80  53 /  50  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  86  54  87  55 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  82  56  83  57 /  40  20   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  57  86  58 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  88  63 /  50  30   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  66 /  20  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  62  90  63 /  10  20   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  63  89  64 /  10  20   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  61  91  62 /  10  20   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  87  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  89  61  89  63 /  10  20   5  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  83  59  84  59 /  50  30  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  58  86  59 /  50  20  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  53  85  54 /  20  10   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  55  82  57 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  57  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  59  85  61 /  30  10   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  55  78  58 /  50  20   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  82  53  86  56 /  10   5   0   0
RATON...........................  85  52  88  55 /  10   5   0  10
SPRINGER........................  85  54  88  56 /  10   5   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  52  83  55 /  20  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  87  60  91  62 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  85  56  88  58 /  10   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  91  63  93  64 /  10   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  89  60  91  63 /  10   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  92  62  94  65 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  89  61  91  63 /  20   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  90  60  92  64 /  20  10   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  63  92  63 /  10   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  92  65  95  65 /  20  10   0   5
PICACHO.........................  86  59  88  61 /  20  10   0  10
ELK.............................  81  57  82  58 /  40  20   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280558 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280558 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272052
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  89  59  91 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  48  83  49  83 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  51  85  52  84 /  20  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  52  87  53  88 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  50  84  51  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  51  85  52  85 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  84  56  83 /  20  30  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  56  88  56  86 /  30  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  45  79  47  79 /  30  30  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  82  58  83 /  30  30  40  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  57  80 /  20  50  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  78  51  79 /  30  30  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  68  41  68 /  40  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  48  69 /  30  50  50  50
TAOS............................  48  81  48  81 /  20  30  20  30
MORA............................  53  73  52  73 /  20  50  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  85  55  85 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  59  83  59  84 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  85  56  86 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  86  64  87 /  20  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  87  65  89 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  89  62  90 /  20  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  90  61  90 /  20  10  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  91  64  91 /  20  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  82  57  81 /  20  30  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  56  83  56  83 /  20  30  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  52  83 /  20  20  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  80  55  81 /  20  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  83  58  83 /  20  30  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  88  63  87 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  80  58  79 /  30  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  55  80  53  80 /  50  20  20  20
RATON...........................  54  84  52  85 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  84  53  84 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  79  52  80 /  20  30  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  62  87  61  89 /  40  10  20   5
ROY.............................  59  84  56  85 /  20  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  90  63  90 /  40  20  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  89  62  89 /  30  20  30   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  92  63  92 /  30  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  20  30   5
PORTALES........................  66  91  64  91 /  20  30  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  64  91 /  20  20  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  95 /  20  20  30  10
PICACHO.........................  62  90  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
ELK.............................  60  84  60  84 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272052
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  89  59  91 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  48  83  49  83 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  51  85  52  84 /  20  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  52  87  53  88 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  50  84  51  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  51  85  52  85 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  84  56  83 /  20  30  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  56  88  56  86 /  30  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  45  79  47  79 /  30  30  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  82  58  83 /  30  30  40  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  57  80 /  20  50  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  78  51  79 /  30  30  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  68  41  68 /  40  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  48  69 /  30  50  50  50
TAOS............................  48  81  48  81 /  20  30  20  30
MORA............................  53  73  52  73 /  20  50  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  85  55  85 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  59  83  59  84 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  85  56  86 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  86  64  87 /  20  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  87  65  89 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  89  62  90 /  20  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  90  61  90 /  20  10  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  91  64  91 /  20  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  82  57  81 /  20  30  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  56  83  56  83 /  20  30  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  52  83 /  20  20  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  80  55  81 /  20  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  83  58  83 /  20  30  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  88  63  87 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  80  58  79 /  30  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  55  80  53  80 /  50  20  20  20
RATON...........................  54  84  52  85 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  84  53  84 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  79  52  80 /  20  30  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  62  87  61  89 /  40  10  20   5
ROY.............................  59  84  56  85 /  20  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  90  63  90 /  40  20  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  89  62  89 /  30  20  30   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  92  63  92 /  30  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  20  30   5
PORTALES........................  66  91  64  91 /  20  30  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  64  91 /  20  20  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  95 /  20  20  30  10
PICACHO.........................  62  90  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
ELK.............................  60  84  60  84 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 270936
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  57  89  60 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  78  46  83  46 /  30  20  30  30
CUBA............................  77  51  79  52 /  30  20  40  40
GALLUP..........................  83  50  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  49  82  51 /  40  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  80  50  84  52 /  30  20  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  79  54  83  54 /  30  30  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  85  57  88  57 /  20  30  50  40
CHAMA...........................  76  46  77  46 /  30  30  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  57  80  57 /  60  40  40  50
PECOS...........................  80  56  77  54 /  30  20  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  51  76  50 /  50  40  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  69  44  68  43 /  50  40  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  48  69  46 /  30  30  50  60
TAOS............................  78  49  79  48 /  30  30  40  40
MORA............................  77  52  73  50 /  40  30  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  84  55  85  55 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  80  58  80  57 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  58  84  57 /  30  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  85  62 /  30  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  65  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  62  89  63 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  63  88  63 /  30  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  60  90  61 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  86  63  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  89  62  91  62 /  40  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  56 /  40  30  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  84  58  83  57 /  30  20  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  54  83  52 /  30  20  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  56  80  55 /  30  20  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  58  82  57 /  40  20  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  62  86  61 /  30  20  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  77  59  77  57 /  70  20  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  82  55  80  51 /  40  40  30  30
RATON...........................  86  54  84  52 /  40  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  86  56  84  54 /  30  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  83  54  79  52 /  40  20  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  89  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  20
ROY.............................  86  59  83  56 /  40  30  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  93  66  90  63 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  91  63  89  62 /  40  30  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  91  62 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  91  63  90  61 /  30  20  40  30
PORTALES........................  91  66  90  63 /  30  20  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  65  90  63 /  50  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  30  40
PICACHO.........................  88  63  88  61 /  60  20  40  50
ELK.............................  81  61  81  59 /  70  30  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34





000
FXUS65 KABQ 270936
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  57  89  60 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  78  46  83  46 /  30  20  30  30
CUBA............................  77  51  79  52 /  30  20  40  40
GALLUP..........................  83  50  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  49  82  51 /  40  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  80  50  84  52 /  30  20  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  79  54  83  54 /  30  30  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  85  57  88  57 /  20  30  50  40
CHAMA...........................  76  46  77  46 /  30  30  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  57  80  57 /  60  40  40  50
PECOS...........................  80  56  77  54 /  30  20  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  51  76  50 /  50  40  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  69  44  68  43 /  50  40  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  48  69  46 /  30  30  50  60
TAOS............................  78  49  79  48 /  30  30  40  40
MORA............................  77  52  73  50 /  40  30  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  84  55  85  55 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  80  58  80  57 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  58  84  57 /  30  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  85  62 /  30  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  65  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  62  89  63 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  63  88  63 /  30  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  60  90  61 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  86  63  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  89  62  91  62 /  40  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  56 /  40  30  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  84  58  83  57 /  30  20  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  54  83  52 /  30  20  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  56  80  55 /  30  20  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  58  82  57 /  40  20  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  62  86  61 /  30  20  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  77  59  77  57 /  70  20  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  82  55  80  51 /  40  40  30  30
RATON...........................  86  54  84  52 /  40  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  86  56  84  54 /  30  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  83  54  79  52 /  40  20  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  89  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  20
ROY.............................  86  59  83  56 /  40  30  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  93  66  90  63 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  91  63  89  62 /  40  30  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  91  62 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  91  63  90  61 /  30  20  40  30
PORTALES........................  91  66  90  63 /  30  20  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  65  90  63 /  50  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  30  40
PICACHO.........................  88  63  88  61 /  60  20  40  50
ELK.............................  81  61  81  59 /  70  30  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34




000
FXUS65 KABQ 270552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 270552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 270552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 270552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING N OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCT
TS/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES PAST MIDNIGHT
SHOULD BE SPOTTIER. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W AND NW ON
THURSDAY...WHEN MODELS FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCT CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 262355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING N OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCT
TS/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES PAST MIDNIGHT
SHOULD BE SPOTTIER. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W AND NW ON
THURSDAY...WHEN MODELS FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCT CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 262355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING N OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCT
TS/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES PAST MIDNIGHT
SHOULD BE SPOTTIER. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W AND NW ON
THURSDAY...WHEN MODELS FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCT CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSING N OF NM WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SCT
TS/SHRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST ANY ACTIVITY THAT CONTINUES PAST MIDNIGHT
SHOULD BE SPOTTIER. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE W AND NW ON
THURSDAY...WHEN MODELS FAVOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY SCT CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262154
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  83  56  89 /  40  20  10   5
DULCE...........................  51  78  44  83 /  60  40  20  20
CUBA............................  52  74  51  77 /  50  50  30  30
GALLUP..........................  54  80  52  84 /  40  30  30  10
EL MORRO........................  52  76  49  81 /  60  50  30  20
GRANTS..........................  53  77  50  81 /  60  50  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  58  81  57  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  49  71  46  76 /  60  50  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  76  56  79 /  50  60  50  40
PECOS...........................  55  75  54  76 /  50  50  30  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  74  50  75 /  60  60  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  47  65  45  63 /  60  70  30  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  66  46  66 /  60  40  30  70
TAOS............................  52  76  49  78 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  53  72  51  71 /  40  40  30  60
ESPANOLA........................  56  80  55  86 /  30  30  30  20
SANTA FE........................  58  79  57  81 /  40  50  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  82  57  84 /  30  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  83  62  86 /  40  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  85  65  88 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  87  61  90 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  86  63  89 /  30  40  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  86  59  89 /  30  30  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  62  88 /  40  30  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  85  61  90 /  30  40  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  79  54  81 /  40  50  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  54  81  51  83 /  40  50  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  81  52  83 /  30  40  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  78  56  79 /  40  40  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  78  58  81 /  30  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  62  86 /  20  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  58  75  59  78 /  30  50  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  59  80  55  77 /  20  40  30  30
RATON...........................  56  84  54  81 /  20  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  58  84  56  83 /  30  30  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  80  53  78 /  30  40  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  87  62  81 /  10  40  30  10
ROY.............................  62  82  58  82 /  20  40  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  68  91  65  90 /  10  40  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  89  63  89 /  10  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  92  65  90 /  10  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  63  88 /  10  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  66  89  66  89 /  10  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  90  65  88 /  10  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  95  67  96 /  10  10  20  30
PICACHO.........................  62  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  40
ELK.............................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262154
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  83  56  89 /  40  20  10   5
DULCE...........................  51  78  44  83 /  60  40  20  20
CUBA............................  52  74  51  77 /  50  50  30  30
GALLUP..........................  54  80  52  84 /  40  30  30  10
EL MORRO........................  52  76  49  81 /  60  50  30  20
GRANTS..........................  53  77  50  81 /  60  50  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  58  81  57  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  49  71  46  76 /  60  50  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  76  56  79 /  50  60  50  40
PECOS...........................  55  75  54  76 /  50  50  30  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  74  50  75 /  60  60  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  47  65  45  63 /  60  70  30  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  66  46  66 /  60  40  30  70
TAOS............................  52  76  49  78 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  53  72  51  71 /  40  40  30  60
ESPANOLA........................  56  80  55  86 /  30  30  30  20
SANTA FE........................  58  79  57  81 /  40  50  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  82  57  84 /  30  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  83  62  86 /  40  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  85  65  88 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  87  61  90 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  86  63  89 /  30  40  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  86  59  89 /  30  30  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  62  88 /  40  30  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  85  61  90 /  30  40  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  79  54  81 /  40  50  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  54  81  51  83 /  40  50  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  81  52  83 /  30  40  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  78  56  79 /  40  40  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  78  58  81 /  30  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  62  86 /  20  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  58  75  59  78 /  30  50  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  59  80  55  77 /  20  40  30  30
RATON...........................  56  84  54  81 /  20  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  58  84  56  83 /  30  30  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  80  53  78 /  30  40  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  87  62  81 /  10  40  30  10
ROY.............................  62  82  58  82 /  20  40  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  68  91  65  90 /  10  40  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  89  63  89 /  10  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  92  65  90 /  10  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  63  88 /  10  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  66  89  66  89 /  10  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  90  65  88 /  10  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  95  67  96 /  10  10  20  30
PICACHO.........................  62  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  40
ELK.............................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 262154
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING AND RETURN ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT OF
A DOWN DAY IS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY BUT A
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL KEEP THINGS ACTIVE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AN UPTICK IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE
ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOUR CORNERS HIGH WAS FORCED EWD BY A POTENT SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH/ELY WAVE OVER NRN AZ/SRN UT LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND THIS
FEATURE IS ALLOWING MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO STREAM NEWD
ACROSS NM. MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA A SWATH OF MAINLY THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE NE PLAINS THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLD ACTIVITY CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST
NAM12 MODEL RUN BRINGS IN MORE DRY AIR TO THE NW QUARTER OF THE
STATE THURSDAY...LIMITING PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE SAN JUAN BASIN
AND NW PLATEAU. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC STRETCHING/DEFORMATION
COMBINE WITH A SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY TO GET SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING IN A SWATH FROM HE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NE AND E TO THE
PLAINS.

NAM AND GFS TRENDING SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO NE NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM12 BRINGS THE FRONT
WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BY NOON FRIDAY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY...GFS HAS QUITE A BIT OF
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SE PLAINS
FRIDAY MORNING. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT W AND
NWWD SATURDAY WITH THE ERN PLAINS REMAINING TOO CAPPED/STABLE FOR
MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS.

DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL (500MB) FOUR CORNERS HIGH BUILDING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MOVE THE 700MB HIGH CENTER
OVER SE NM/W TX SUNDAY. THIS PLACEMENT ALLOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
TO STREAM UP FROM SE ARIZONA AND INTO WRN AND NRN NM. MODELS
CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CROPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD AMT OF MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT HAVING BEEN SHOVED TO NEAR THE NM TX STATE LINE AND A
MID TO UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE SKIRTING W CENTRAL AND NW NM A PRETTY
GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...DESPITE HEATING
HAVING BEEN MUTED BY A GOOD AMT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA.
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY PRODUCING WETTING RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVE AND THEN DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY...OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE USUAL GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
LIGHTNING CONCERNS WITH THE STORMS.

UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL HEAD OVER THE NEAR OR JUST SW OF THE BOOTHEEL
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
TURNING THE WINDS ALOFT TO MORE OF A NW TO SE FLOW. STILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED MAINLY AFTN AND EVE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...MAINLY AGAIN WITH WETTING RAINS. THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD DRAG
AT LEAST A FEW MORE STORMS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE RECENTLY. SOME AFTN WEST TO SW BREEZES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE
NE AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THU...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE
THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD SO CRITICAL CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

FRIDAY SHOULD BRING LOWER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NW
THIRD OF THE STATE...STILL FAIRLY DECENT CHANCES ELSEWHERE. ANY WIND
SHIFT TO A MORE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE EAST IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT
NOT A CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...AND SHOULD NOT CREATE A MAJOR EAST
WIND EVENT IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT A LITTLE MORE TO
THE NE...MORE OR LESS OVER THE STATE...DEVELOPING A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE...ESPEC ACROSS THE EAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE NM. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE HIGH
CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING RAIN COVERAGE. THIS
MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP AN
ENCROACHING WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SAT NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL THU ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  FOR
THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE THE NORM
THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE
EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST VENT RATES MOSTLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THU...WITH DIMINISHED RATES FRI
OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR NW THIRD OR SO. SOME
IMPROVEMENT POSS BY EARLY TO MID WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  83  56  89 /  40  20  10   5
DULCE...........................  51  78  44  83 /  60  40  20  20
CUBA............................  52  74  51  77 /  50  50  30  30
GALLUP..........................  54  80  52  84 /  40  30  30  10
EL MORRO........................  52  76  49  81 /  60  50  30  20
GRANTS..........................  53  77  50  81 /  60  50  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  58  81  57  86 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  49  71  46  76 /  60  50  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  76  56  79 /  50  60  50  40
PECOS...........................  55  75  54  76 /  50  50  30  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  74  50  75 /  60  60  30  50
RED RIVER.......................  47  65  45  63 /  60  70  30  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  66  46  66 /  60  40  30  70
TAOS............................  52  76  49  78 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  53  72  51  71 /  40  40  30  60
ESPANOLA........................  56  80  55  86 /  30  30  30  20
SANTA FE........................  58  79  57  81 /  40  50  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  82  57  84 /  30  40  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  83  62  86 /  40  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  85  65  88 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  87  61  90 /  30  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  86  63  89 /  30  40  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  86  59  89 /  30  30  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  62  88 /  40  30  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  85  61  90 /  30  40  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  79  54  81 /  40  50  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  54  81  51  83 /  40  50  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  81  52  83 /  30  40  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  78  56  79 /  40  40  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  78  58  81 /  30  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  62  86 /  20  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  58  75  59  78 /  30  50  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  59  80  55  77 /  20  40  30  30
RATON...........................  56  84  54  81 /  20  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  58  84  56  83 /  30  30  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  80  53  78 /  30  40  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  87  62  81 /  10  40  30  10
ROY.............................  62  82  58  82 /  20  40  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  68  91  65  90 /  10  40  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  89  63  89 /  10  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  92  65  90 /  10  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  63  88 /  10  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  66  89  66  89 /  10  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  90  65  88 /  10  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  95  67  96 /  10  10  20  30
PICACHO.........................  62  87  63  87 /  20  40  30  40
ELK.............................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261800
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

IN TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON FASHION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CLOSE BY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO.
DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...A SMALLER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE AUGUST. INTO THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOME AS THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT LEAVES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SWATH OF
MOISTURE INTACT OVER NEW MEXICO FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...NOT ONLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. INTO
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE AND A SUBTLE COOLING EFFECT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER CO AND NM...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DISTINCT PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
AZ...AND THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH
AS IT REPOSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AZ WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THERE. VALUES
INTO NM ARE MUCH MORE MODERATE...PUSHING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SAN JUAN BASIN IN NW NM. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER NM ALONG WITH
BATCHES OF MODERATE...MOSTLY STRATIFORM...RAIN ALSO TRAILING THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND RAINY START TO THE
MORNING FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF NM AS THIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD...AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY STUNT THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
LATCHING ON TO THIS AS MANY CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES HAVE DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURE PROGNOSES. HARD TO ARGUE THIS...SO SOME DOWNWARD
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE HIT THE NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES THE HARDEST AS FAR AS HIGH/LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND AN INABILITY TO DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWESTWARD...SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ILL-
DEFINED...LOSING ITS CONSOLIDATED STATE. THE MORE NOTABLE
ALTERATIONS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN NE NM WHERE NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WOULD
BE DEVELOPING TODAY WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CO/NM INTO THURSDAY
WITH A KINK DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT ON THE MOVE.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE FAVORED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION AS
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE UNDERGOING STRETCHING AND
MODIFICATION AMIDST THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED
MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO A MORE
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THIS MODIFICATION...EXTENDING THE PLUME
FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO...WITH NW WINDS ALOFT IN NE NM AND A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.

AS FRIDAY UNFOLDS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...LIKELY ADVANCING WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD POINT TO THE
EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS BEING FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...BUT THE GFS ALSO INSISTS
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. BY THIS TIME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADLY BE IN PLACE OVER NM AND THE GREATER
SOUTHWEST.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST POINTS TOWARD A RECYCLE MODE FOR CONVECTION
OVER NM WITH NO NEW MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ON HAND. HOWEVER AS NEXT
WEEK UNFOLDS...THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW COULD
SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A LONGER SUSTAINED
TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH THRU ARIZONA TODAY THEN OVER FOUR
CORNERS AND NRN NM TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH WETTING RAIN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM MOTION TODAY GENERALLY TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS SUCH AS
THE RGV...AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AS WELL.
SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS A BIT WEAKER AND THE NLY WIND SHIFT DOESN/T REACH THE NE
PLAINS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
ENERGY...REACHING THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND GUIDANCE
NOW BRINGS AN EAST WIND INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FORECAST FOR THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOL FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST MTS.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL HAVE A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING
RAIN COVERAGE. THIS MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON
HOW DEEP THE WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES. AS A CONCESSION...EXTENDED
FORECAST POPS ARE NOW HIGHER WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WON/T BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  FOR THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE THE NORM THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX
HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261800
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

IN TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON FASHION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CLOSE BY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO.
DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...A SMALLER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE AUGUST. INTO THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOME AS THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT LEAVES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SWATH OF
MOISTURE INTACT OVER NEW MEXICO FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...NOT ONLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. INTO
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE AND A SUBTLE COOLING EFFECT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER CO AND NM...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DISTINCT PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
AZ...AND THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH
AS IT REPOSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AZ WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THERE. VALUES
INTO NM ARE MUCH MORE MODERATE...PUSHING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SAN JUAN BASIN IN NW NM. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER NM ALONG WITH
BATCHES OF MODERATE...MOSTLY STRATIFORM...RAIN ALSO TRAILING THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND RAINY START TO THE
MORNING FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF NM AS THIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD...AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY STUNT THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
LATCHING ON TO THIS AS MANY CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES HAVE DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURE PROGNOSES. HARD TO ARGUE THIS...SO SOME DOWNWARD
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE HIT THE NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES THE HARDEST AS FAR AS HIGH/LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND AN INABILITY TO DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWESTWARD...SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ILL-
DEFINED...LOSING ITS CONSOLIDATED STATE. THE MORE NOTABLE
ALTERATIONS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN NE NM WHERE NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WOULD
BE DEVELOPING TODAY WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CO/NM INTO THURSDAY
WITH A KINK DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT ON THE MOVE.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE FAVORED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION AS
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE UNDERGOING STRETCHING AND
MODIFICATION AMIDST THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED
MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO A MORE
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THIS MODIFICATION...EXTENDING THE PLUME
FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO...WITH NW WINDS ALOFT IN NE NM AND A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.

AS FRIDAY UNFOLDS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...LIKELY ADVANCING WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD POINT TO THE
EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS BEING FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...BUT THE GFS ALSO INSISTS
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. BY THIS TIME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADLY BE IN PLACE OVER NM AND THE GREATER
SOUTHWEST.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST POINTS TOWARD A RECYCLE MODE FOR CONVECTION
OVER NM WITH NO NEW MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ON HAND. HOWEVER AS NEXT
WEEK UNFOLDS...THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW COULD
SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A LONGER SUSTAINED
TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH THRU ARIZONA TODAY THEN OVER FOUR
CORNERS AND NRN NM TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH WETTING RAIN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM MOTION TODAY GENERALLY TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS SUCH AS
THE RGV...AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AS WELL.
SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS A BIT WEAKER AND THE NLY WIND SHIFT DOESN/T REACH THE NE
PLAINS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
ENERGY...REACHING THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND GUIDANCE
NOW BRINGS AN EAST WIND INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FORECAST FOR THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOL FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST MTS.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL HAVE A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING
RAIN COVERAGE. THIS MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON
HOW DEEP THE WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES. AS A CONCESSION...EXTENDED
FORECAST POPS ARE NOW HIGHER WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WON/T BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  FOR THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE THE NORM THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX
HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 261800
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

IN TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON FASHION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CLOSE BY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO.
DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...A SMALLER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE AUGUST. INTO THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOME AS THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT LEAVES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SWATH OF
MOISTURE INTACT OVER NEW MEXICO FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...NOT ONLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. INTO
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE AND A SUBTLE COOLING EFFECT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER CO AND NM...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DISTINCT PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
AZ...AND THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH
AS IT REPOSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AZ WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THERE. VALUES
INTO NM ARE MUCH MORE MODERATE...PUSHING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SAN JUAN BASIN IN NW NM. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER NM ALONG WITH
BATCHES OF MODERATE...MOSTLY STRATIFORM...RAIN ALSO TRAILING THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND RAINY START TO THE
MORNING FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF NM AS THIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD...AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY STUNT THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
LATCHING ON TO THIS AS MANY CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES HAVE DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURE PROGNOSES. HARD TO ARGUE THIS...SO SOME DOWNWARD
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE HIT THE NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES THE HARDEST AS FAR AS HIGH/LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND AN INABILITY TO DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWESTWARD...SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ILL-
DEFINED...LOSING ITS CONSOLIDATED STATE. THE MORE NOTABLE
ALTERATIONS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN NE NM WHERE NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WOULD
BE DEVELOPING TODAY WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CO/NM INTO THURSDAY
WITH A KINK DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT ON THE MOVE.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE FAVORED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION AS
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE UNDERGOING STRETCHING AND
MODIFICATION AMIDST THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED
MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO A MORE
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THIS MODIFICATION...EXTENDING THE PLUME
FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO...WITH NW WINDS ALOFT IN NE NM AND A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.

AS FRIDAY UNFOLDS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...LIKELY ADVANCING WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD POINT TO THE
EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS BEING FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...BUT THE GFS ALSO INSISTS
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. BY THIS TIME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADLY BE IN PLACE OVER NM AND THE GREATER
SOUTHWEST.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST POINTS TOWARD A RECYCLE MODE FOR CONVECTION
OVER NM WITH NO NEW MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ON HAND. HOWEVER AS NEXT
WEEK UNFOLDS...THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW COULD
SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A LONGER SUSTAINED
TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH THRU ARIZONA TODAY THEN OVER FOUR
CORNERS AND NRN NM TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH WETTING RAIN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM MOTION TODAY GENERALLY TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS SUCH AS
THE RGV...AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AS WELL.
SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS A BIT WEAKER AND THE NLY WIND SHIFT DOESN/T REACH THE NE
PLAINS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
ENERGY...REACHING THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND GUIDANCE
NOW BRINGS AN EAST WIND INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FORECAST FOR THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOL FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST MTS.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL HAVE A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING
RAIN COVERAGE. THIS MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON
HOW DEEP THE WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES. AS A CONCESSION...EXTENDED
FORECAST POPS ARE NOW HIGHER WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WON/T BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  FOR THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE THE NORM THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX
HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261800
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NW SIDE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SCT TO...ON OCCASION...NUMEROUS
SHRA AND SCT TSRA TO MUCH OF WEST AND NORTH NM AND...TO A LITTLE
LESSER DEGREE...CENTRAL NM THIS AFTN AND EVE. BEST CHANCE FOR TAF
SITE TSRA IMPACTS SHOULD BE AT GUP AND FMN BETWEEN 21Z AND 04Z AND
MODERATE CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT ABQ...AEG...SAF AND PERHAPS LVS. MTS
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WND GUSTS TO 40KT.
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER ROUGHLY 04Z.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...

IN TYPICAL MONSOON SEASON FASHION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
CLOSE BY...SHIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM COLORADO AND INTO NEW MEXICO.
DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL WORK AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. IN ADDITION...A SMALLER SCALE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER THE WESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT TODAY WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WITHIN 3 TO 5
DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE AUGUST. INTO THURSDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN SOME AS THE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT LEAVES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD
THROUGH COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SWATH OF
MOISTURE INTACT OVER NEW MEXICO FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON THURSDAY...NOT ONLY IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN...BUT ALSO OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. INTO
FRIDAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FAVORING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF THE STATE AND A SUBTLE COOLING EFFECT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER CO AND NM...AND
IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A DISTINCT PERTURBATION IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
AZ...AND THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH
AS IT REPOSITIONS SOUTHWARD. A DEEP PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AZ WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PUSHING 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES THERE. VALUES
INTO NM ARE MUCH MORE MODERATE...PUSHING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.25 INCHES
WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE SAN JUAN BASIN IN NW NM. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER NM ALONG WITH
BATCHES OF MODERATE...MOSTLY STRATIFORM...RAIN ALSO TRAILING THE
PERTURBATION ALOFT. EXPECT A CLOUDY AND RAINY START TO THE
MORNING FOR THE WESTERN TIER OF NM AS THIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
NORTHWARD...AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY STUNT THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS TOWARD THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
LATCHING ON TO THIS AS MANY CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES HAVE DROPPED
HIGH TEMPERATURE PROGNOSES. HARD TO ARGUE THIS...SO SOME DOWNWARD
TWEAKS WERE MADE TO TODAY`S FORECAST HIGHS. HAVE HIT THE NORTH
CENTRAL ZONES THE HARDEST AS FAR AS HIGH/LIKELY POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...BUT THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF TOO
MUCH CLOUD COVER AND AN INABILITY TO DESTABILIZE TO PRODUCE DEEP
MOIST CONVECTIVE CELLS.

THE CENTROID OF HIGH PRESSURE SAGS SOUTHWESTWARD...SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE BOOTHEEL OF NM BY THURSDAY...HOWEVER IT WILL BE ILL-
DEFINED...LOSING ITS CONSOLIDATED STATE. THE MORE NOTABLE
ALTERATIONS TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE IN NE NM WHERE NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PERTURBATION PUSHES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WOULD
BE DEVELOPING TODAY WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN CO/NM INTO THURSDAY
WITH A KINK DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO A BACK DOOR FRONT ON THE MOVE.
IT`S DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE FAVORED AREAS FOR PRECIPITATION AS
THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE UNDERGOING STRETCHING AND
MODIFICATION AMIDST THE EVOLVING MID LEVEL WINDS. FOR NOW HAVE SIDED
MORE WITH THE NAM SOLUTION AS IT SEEMS TO LATCH ONTO A MORE
REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THIS MODIFICATION...EXTENDING THE PLUME
FROM WEST TO EAST. ALSO...WITH NW WINDS ALOFT IN NE NM AND A
SOUTHERLY SURFACE COMPONENT...SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS.

AS FRIDAY UNFOLDS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL HAVE PLUNGED INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM...LIKELY ADVANCING WESTWARD TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD POINT TO THE
EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS BEING FAVORED FOR
PRECIPITATION IN AN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME...BUT THE GFS ALSO INSISTS
THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. BY THIS TIME
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BROADLY BE IN PLACE OVER NM AND THE GREATER
SOUTHWEST.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST POINTS TOWARD A RECYCLE MODE FOR CONVECTION
OVER NM WITH NO NEW MOISTURE INTRUSIONS ON HAND. HOWEVER AS NEXT
WEEK UNFOLDS...THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NW COULD
SHUNT HIGH PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW A LONGER SUSTAINED
TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTH THRU ARIZONA TODAY THEN OVER FOUR
CORNERS AND NRN NM TONIGHT. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DISTURBANCE SO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH WETTING RAIN EXPECTED
NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
STORM MOTION TODAY GENERALLY TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE TO BE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST THURSDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST...RESULTING IN NW FLOW ALOFT. SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING
RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH...AND STORM MOTION WOULD BE
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...SO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS SUCH AS
THE RGV...AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
WOULD APPEAR TO HAVE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AS WELL.
SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY...BUT MIN HUMIDITIES STAY WELL ABOVE THE 15
PERCENT THRESHOLD.

THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE NOW
APPEARS A BIT WEAKER AND THE NLY WIND SHIFT DOESN/T REACH THE NE
PLAINS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...IT MAY HAVE A BIT MORE
ENERGY...REACHING THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND GUIDANCE
NOW BRINGS AN EAST WIND INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS FORECAST FOR THE NE IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...HIGHER DEWPOINTS POOL FARTHER SOUTH AND INTO THE MIDDLE RGV
IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST MTS.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS ANTICIPATED TO DRIFT BACK OVER NM OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL HAVE A MARKED SW TO NE
ORIENTATION...LEADING TO AT LEAST A SLIGHT DOWNTURN IN STORM
NUMBERS...WETTING FOOTPRINTS AND COVERAGE. ANY FURTHER EASTWARD
SHIFT IN THE HIGH CENTER COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR MORE WETTING
RAIN COVERAGE. THIS MAY HAPPEN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...DEPENDING ON
HOW DEEP THE WEST COAST TROUGH BECOMES. AS A CONCESSION...EXTENDED
FORECAST POPS ARE NOW HIGHER WITH GREATER AREAL COVERAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WON/T BE TOO FAR FROM
AVERAGE...BUT THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.  FOR THE LATE WEEKEND MORE AREAS WILL BE NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE THE NORM THAN BELOW. NO MAJOR DAY TO DAY MIN AND MAX
HUMIDITY SWINGS ARE EXPECTED...AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
VENT RATES MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
DIMINISHED RATES FRIDAY OVERALL...AND SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR
WEST AND NORTH. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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