Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KABQ 192348
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z OR 09Z.
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RETURN OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS IN
MVFR TO MORE LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY AT KFMN AND KGUP...LESS
SPECIFICALLY THE NW QUARTER TO PERHAPS THIRD OF NM...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 19Z SAT. COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS EARLY
THIS MORN SO FOR NOW STAYED WITH VCFG PLACEHOLDER.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 192219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  45  23  47 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................   8  42  11  41 /   0   5   5  10
CUBA............................   7  42  13  42 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  15  46  19  48 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  14  40  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  12  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  40  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  42  10  39 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  39  24  42 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  20  42  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   5  39  11  38 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................   4  35  10  35 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................   1  41   7  38 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  10  41  14  40 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  17  46  20  44 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  13  43  16  45 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  19  40  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  44  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  19  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  25  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  41  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  43  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  23  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  23  50  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  23  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  47  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  15  50  17  53 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  50  22  51 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  53  25  58 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  21  50  24  55 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  56  27  60 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  26  56  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  53  25  56 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52/KJ








000
FXUS65 KABQ 192219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  45  23  47 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................   8  42  11  41 /   0   5   5  10
CUBA............................   7  42  13  42 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  15  46  19  48 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  14  40  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  12  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  40  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  42  10  39 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  39  24  42 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  20  42  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   5  39  11  38 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................   4  35  10  35 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................   1  41   7  38 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  10  41  14  40 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  17  46  20  44 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  13  43  16  45 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  19  40  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  44  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  19  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  25  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  41  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  43  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  23  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  23  50  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  23  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  47  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  15  50  17  53 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  50  22  51 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  53  25  58 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  21  50  24  55 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  56  27  60 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  26  56  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  53  25  56 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52/KJ







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191738 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREA WIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 191738 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREA WIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 191145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG IMPACTING WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. FOCUS AREAS STRETCH FROM EAST OF KFMN TO
KGUP AND FROM KCVS TO KTCC. SKIES WILL CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONT DVD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING.
THE AREA FROM KFMN TO KGUP MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER SINCE HIGH CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. FUTURE TAF CYCLES MAY PROVIDE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 191145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG IMPACTING WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. FOCUS AREAS STRETCH FROM EAST OF KFMN TO
KGUP AND FROM KCVS TO KTCC. SKIES WILL CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONT DVD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING.
THE AREA FROM KFMN TO KGUP MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER SINCE HIGH CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. FUTURE TAF CYCLES MAY PROVIDE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 190601 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190601 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 190002
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING
KOMN...KSRR AND KROW THROUGH AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM KGUP TO KGNT THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AS
WELL...WITH WEST TO EAST CLEARING AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INCLUDING KROW...KCVS AND KTCC...THOUGH CURRENTLY ONLY CARRYING
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...LOOK FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY LATE
MORNING TO MID DAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 182226
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  40  21  45 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  11  38   9  41 /  10   0   0   5
CUBA............................  15  37  11  40 /  10   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  15  41  16  45 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  16  37  15  40 /  30   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  14  41  13  47 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  21  38  19  38 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  26  52  26  55 /  40   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   7  36   8  42 /  20   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  39  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  19  38  19  39 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   9  35   5  35 /  10   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  31   4  33 /  20   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   4  36   2  38 /  20   5   5   0
TAOS............................  13  37   9  39 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  17  40  16  43 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  16  41  13  42 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  22  37  21  40 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  40  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  42  24  44 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  44  27  46 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  46  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  22  45  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  23  47  21  46 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  26  49  24  51 /  30   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  38  19  41 /  20   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  25  41  23  43 /  20   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  18  43  18  45 /  20   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  40  20  43 /  40   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  44  24  44 /  40   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  25  48  24  51 /  50   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  21  45  24  49 /  60   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  42  14  46 /  10   5   5   0
RATON...........................  15  44  15  49 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  19  48  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  17  44  18  49 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  24  48  25  50 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  22  48  22  49 /  10   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  27  51  26  52 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28  51  27  54 /  10   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  50  23  55 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  51  26  56 /  30  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  31  53  26  57 /  40  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  29  53  26  55 /  20   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  31  56  26  57 /  50   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  30  53  27  54 /  50   5   0   0
ELK.............................  28  51  26  52 /  60   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 182226
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  40  21  45 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  11  38   9  41 /  10   0   0   5
CUBA............................  15  37  11  40 /  10   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  15  41  16  45 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  16  37  15  40 /  30   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  14  41  13  47 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  21  38  19  38 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  26  52  26  55 /  40   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   7  36   8  42 /  20   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  39  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  19  38  19  39 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   9  35   5  35 /  10   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  31   4  33 /  20   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   4  36   2  38 /  20   5   5   0
TAOS............................  13  37   9  39 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  17  40  16  43 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  16  41  13  42 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  22  37  21  40 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  40  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  42  24  44 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  44  27  46 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  46  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  22  45  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  23  47  21  46 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  26  49  24  51 /  30   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  38  19  41 /  20   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  25  41  23  43 /  20   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  18  43  18  45 /  20   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  40  20  43 /  40   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  44  24  44 /  40   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  25  48  24  51 /  50   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  21  45  24  49 /  60   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  42  14  46 /  10   5   5   0
RATON...........................  15  44  15  49 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  19  48  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  17  44  18  49 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  24  48  25  50 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  22  48  22  49 /  10   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  27  51  26  52 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28  51  27  54 /  10   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  50  23  55 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  51  26  56 /  30  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  31  53  26  57 /  40  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  29  53  26  55 /  20   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  31  56  26  57 /  50   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  30  53  27  54 /  50   5   0   0
ELK.............................  28  51  26  52 /  60   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 181755 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 181755 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 181146 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NW/NC PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 16Z TO 18Z. THIS INCLUDES IMPACTS TO FMN/GUP. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS...PARTICULARLY
IMPACTING TCC THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. PACIFIC WAVE WILL SPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SH CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS.
PERHAPS SOME TERMINAL IMPACTS TO GUP BUT MOST PROBABLE IMPACTS
COME TONIGHT AT ROW. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A BIT BEHIND THE WAVE
PASSAGE AND COULD LEAD TO FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME RESIDUAL WET SNOW
ON THE GROUND. TRIED TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH THE USE OF
VCFG AND SCT LOW CIGS AFTER 10Z.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 181146 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NW/NC PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 16Z TO 18Z. THIS INCLUDES IMPACTS TO FMN/GUP. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS...PARTICULARLY
IMPACTING TCC THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. PACIFIC WAVE WILL SPREAD
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SH CHANCES MAINLY RELEGATED TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS.
PERHAPS SOME TERMINAL IMPACTS TO GUP BUT MOST PROBABLE IMPACTS
COME TONIGHT AT ROW. SKIES WILL CLEAR FOR A BIT BEHIND THE WAVE
PASSAGE AND COULD LEAD TO FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SOME RESIDUAL WET SNOW
ON THE GROUND. TRIED TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY WITH THE USE OF
VCFG AND SCT LOW CIGS AFTER 10Z.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 181030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...AT TIMES EXPANDING OR LOWERING
FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WED. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE SAF...GUP...FMN AND
PERHAPS AEG...FMN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ABQ. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY -SN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN. ROW AND LVS FAIRLY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THU MORN AT TCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH A LITTLE
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH EARLIER
AVIATION AFD ISSUANCE. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS TO BE VFR MOST OF
DAY THU...WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  20  40  21 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  35  13  37  11 /  20  10   5   5
CUBA............................  34  17  36  12 /  20  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  39  15  42  16 /  20   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  34  15  37  15 /  30  20   5   0
GRANTS..........................  39  14  42  12 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  34  22  36  21 /  40  20   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  27  53  24 /  50  30   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  14  37   8 /  20  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  36  26  37  22 /  20  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  36  21  39  20 /  10   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  13  32   8 /  10  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  29  12  30  12 /  20  20   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  33   2  35  -2 /  10  10   5   5
TAOS............................  34  14  37  10 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  38  19  40  18 /  10  10   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  41  22  41  21 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  25  36  24 /  10   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  40  20  42  19 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  33  40  29 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  25  45  24 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  26  45  24 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  44  26  44  24 /  10   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  19  45  18 /  10   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  43  27  44  25 /  10   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  25  49  24 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  39  25  38  24 /  10   5   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  28  41  25 /  10   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  18  41  16 /  10   5   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  19  39  19 /  10  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  26  42  23 /  10  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  26  47  24 /  20  20   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  20  45  21 /  10  30   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  40  19  41  18 /   5  10   5   5
RATON...........................  44  16  47  15 /   5  10   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  48  18 /   0  10   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  17  46  18 /   0  10   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  25  48  25 /   5  10   5   5
ROY.............................  45  21  48  21 /   0  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  47  29  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  28  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  27  50  24 /   5  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  52  29  50  25 /   0  20   5   5
PORTALES........................  53  31  52  26 /   0  20   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  51  28 /   0  20   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  57  31  56  26 /   5  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  50  30  51  27 /  10  30   5   0
ELK.............................  49  27  49  25 /  10  40   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 181030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...AT TIMES EXPANDING OR LOWERING
FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WED. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE SAF...GUP...FMN AND
PERHAPS AEG...FMN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ABQ. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY -SN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN. ROW AND LVS FAIRLY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THU MORN AT TCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH A LITTLE
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH EARLIER
AVIATION AFD ISSUANCE. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS TO BE VFR MOST OF
DAY THU...WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  20  40  21 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  35  13  37  11 /  20  10   5   5
CUBA............................  34  17  36  12 /  20  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  39  15  42  16 /  20   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  34  15  37  15 /  30  20   5   0
GRANTS..........................  39  14  42  12 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  34  22  36  21 /  40  20   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  27  53  24 /  50  30   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  14  37   8 /  20  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  36  26  37  22 /  20  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  36  21  39  20 /  10   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  13  32   8 /  10  10   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  29  12  30  12 /  20  20   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  33   2  35  -2 /  10  10   5   5
TAOS............................  34  14  37  10 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  38  19  40  18 /  10  10   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  41  22  41  21 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  25  36  24 /  10   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  40  20  42  19 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  33  40  29 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  25  45  24 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  26  45  24 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  44  26  44  24 /  10   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  19  45  18 /  10   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  43  27  44  25 /  10   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  25  49  24 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  39  25  38  24 /  10   5   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  28  41  25 /  10   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  18  41  16 /  10   5   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  19  39  19 /  10  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  26  42  23 /  10  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  26  47  24 /  20  20   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  20  45  21 /  10  30   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  40  19  41  18 /   5  10   5   5
RATON...........................  44  16  47  15 /   5  10   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  48  18 /   0  10   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  17  46  18 /   0  10   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  44  25  48  25 /   5  10   5   5
ROY.............................  45  21  48  21 /   0  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  47  29  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  28  49  27 /   0  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  27  50  24 /   5  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  52  29  50  25 /   0  20   5   5
PORTALES........................  53  31  52  26 /   0  20   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  51  28 /   0  20   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  57  31  56  26 /   5  20   5   0
PICACHO.........................  50  30  51  27 /  10  30   5   0
ELK.............................  49  27  49  25 /  10  40   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 180559 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1059 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...AT TIMES EXPANDING OR LOWERING
FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WED. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE SAF...GUP...FMN AND
PERHAPS AEG...FMN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ABQ. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY -SN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN. ROW AND LVS FAIRLY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THU MORN AT TCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH A LITTLE
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH EARLIER
AVIATION AFD ISSUANCE. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS TO BE VFR MOST OF
DAY THU...WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.UPDATE...
WINTER ADVISORIES BY THE BOARD ON SCHEDULE...AND FRESH PUBLIC
ZONES ISSUED WITH HEADLINES REMOVED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 180559 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1059 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...AT TIMES EXPANDING OR LOWERING
FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP WED. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE SAF...GUP...FMN AND
PERHAPS AEG...FMN AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ABQ. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW AREAS OF
MOSTLY -SN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER AND NEAR
HIGHER TERRAIN. ROW AND LVS FAIRLY LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH
06Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE THU MORN AT TCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH A LITTLE
LITTLE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS THAN WAS THE CASE WITH EARLIER
AVIATION AFD ISSUANCE. WHILE MOST OTHER AREAS TO BE VFR MOST OF
DAY THU...WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.UPDATE...
WINTER ADVISORIES BY THE BOARD ON SCHEDULE...AND FRESH PUBLIC
ZONES ISSUED WITH HEADLINES REMOVED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 180548 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WINTER ADVISORIES BY THE BOARD ON SCHEDULE...AND FRESH PUBLIC
ZONES ISSUED WITH HEADLINES REMOVED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...510 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...PERHAPS EXPANDING OR
LOWERING FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TODAY. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE
SAF...GUP...AEG AND PERHAPS ABQ AND FMN. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR EVEN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AREAS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RA AND
SN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. KROW AND KLVS FAIRLY LIKELY
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU MORNING AT KTCC WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY








000
FXUS65 KABQ 180548 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1048 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WINTER ADVISORIES BY THE BOARD ON SCHEDULE...AND FRESH PUBLIC
ZONES ISSUED WITH HEADLINES REMOVED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...510 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...PERHAPS EXPANDING OR
LOWERING FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TODAY. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE
SAF...GUP...AEG AND PERHAPS ABQ AND FMN. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR EVEN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AREAS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RA AND
SN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. KROW AND KLVS FAIRLY LIKELY
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU MORNING AT KTCC WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 180010 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...PERHAPS EXPANDING OR
LOWERING FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TODAY. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE
SAF...GUP...AEG AND PERHAPS ABQ AND FMN. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR EVEN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AREAS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RA AND
SN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. KROW AND KLVS FAIRLY LIKELY
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU MORNING AT KTCC WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>504-506-508-510>514.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 180010 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TONIGHT NEAR AND WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOCORRO TO RESERVE...PERHAPS EXPANDING OR
LOWERING FURTHER ACROSS AND NEAR AREAS THAT RECEIVED MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TODAY. MOST IMPACTED SITES LIKELY TO BE
SAF...GUP...AEG AND PERHAPS ABQ AND FMN. WIDESPREAD MT
OBSCURATIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LIFR EVEN POSSIBLE WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AREAS OF LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE RA AND
SN SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. KROW AND KLVS FAIRLY LIKELY
TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 00Z FRI...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THU MORNING AT KTCC WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT. WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS...
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THU...THOUGH SOME MT OBSCURATIONS
STILL LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY OR MID AFTN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>504-506-508-510>514.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 172214 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF TWO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW...
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
IMPROVEMENT ALREADY OBSERVED THOUGH...WITH TERMINALS IMPACTED
EARLIER TRENDING UP INTO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KGUP WITH THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MVFR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY AT KSAF. KROW AND KLVS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT KTCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  43  20  41 /  40  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  21  38  13  38 /  50  20  20   5
CUBA............................  22  37  16  36 /  60  20  20   5
GALLUP..........................  23  42  15  42 /  50  30   5   5
EL MORRO........................  22  36  16  37 /  60  40  10   5
GRANTS..........................  23  42  12  42 /  40  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  35  21  37 /  40  50  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  28  49  25  51 /  40  40  20   0
CHAMA...........................  19  37  12  36 /  60  30  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  37  25  37 /  40  20  20   5
PECOS...........................  24  38  21  37 /  30  20  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  34  10  33 /  40  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  15  32  11  29 /  60  30  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  11  36  -1  34 /  40  20  20  10
TAOS............................  19  38  11  36 /  30  20  20   5
MORA............................  24  42  18  39 /  30  10  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  24  43  22  41 /  30  10  10   0
SANTA FE........................  27  37  24  38 /  40  20  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  24  41  21  42 /  30  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  27  42  26  43 /  30  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  45  26  45 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  27  46  23  46 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  45  26  45 /  30  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  46  20  46 /  20  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  43  27  46 /  30  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  28  48  26  49 /  20  20  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  26  40  23  38 /  50  20  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  29  42  20  40 /  40  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  20  43  14  41 /  30  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  40  19  40 /  20  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  27  43  25  42 /  30  20  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  47  25  47 /  20  10  40   5
RUIDOSO.........................  23  45  20  45 /  20  20  50   5
CAPULIN.........................  21  42  19  40 /  30  10  20   5
RATON...........................  19  46  15  45 /  20  10  10   5
SPRINGER........................  21  48  17  46 /  20   5  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  46  18  45 /  10   5  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  47  26  48 /  20   5  10   5
ROY.............................  23  47  21  47 /  10   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  50  28  50 /   5   5  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  32  52  27  50 /   5   5  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  51  26  49 /   5   5  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  30  54  29  50 /   5   5  30   5
PORTALES........................  31  55  30  51 /   5   5  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  55  28  51 /   5   5  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  31  58  30  56 /   5   5  30   5
PICACHO.........................  31  52  29  51 /   5  10  40   5
ELK.............................  29  50  26  49 /  10  10  40   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>504-506-508-510>514.

&&

$$

33


















000
FXUS65 KABQ 172214 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY WEAK PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. LOWLAND RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE
ABOVE 6500 FEET. ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A
MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL RESULT IN FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NUMBER TWO IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING DROPPING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6500-7000FT. KEPT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY GOING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AFTER
SUNSET.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE IN THE SERIES
WILL DROP FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO SWRN NM THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE OVER CATRON COUNTY/SW
MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING
THE EVENING. SHORT-WAVE RIDGING RETURNS FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK AND DRY SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIDE SEWD THROUGH
NM SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A MINOR COOL DOWN.

ECWMF AND GFS TO A LESSER EXTENT BRING A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO NE NM
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS A SMALL
PERTURBATION IN THE STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN A
STRONG TROUGH SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE DECEMBER. MODELS REMAIN WITH IDEA OF A MAJOR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL
BAND IS IMPRESSIVE ON BOTH MODELS TO SAY THE LEAST. THIS SYSTEM
IS STILL WAY TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH SUCH A FAST FLOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BUT THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER RUNS IS LENDING TO SLIGHTLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE LEVELS WITH EACH PASSING DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN DRYING/WARMING FORECAST WITH
A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL THE APPROACH OF A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES ARE FORECAST TO TREND DOWN THURSDAY AND BE POOR TO FAIR
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA. CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. VENT RATES ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE AN OVERALL
UPTREND...BUT STILL BE POOR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. OTHERWISE...RATES WILL IMPROVE TO GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

VENT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP AND A WARMING
TREND BEGINS. CHANGES ARE INSTORE FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND MOVE
TOWARD NEW MEXICO...BRINGING OUR NEXT DECENT SHOT AT WIDESPREAD
WETTING PRECIPITATION. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THIS
TROUGH...WITH THE ECMWF ADVERTISING A LARGE UPPER LOW WITH WIND
IMPACTS STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BOTH WIND IMPACTS
AND CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW
TO MODERATE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE ON THE MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH AT
THIS POINT GIVEN MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ISSUES AND THE TRACK
RECORD OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY`S TROUGH...
WHICH HAS TRENDED ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE FORECAST.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF TWO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW...
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
IMPROVEMENT ALREADY OBSERVED THOUGH...WITH TERMINALS IMPACTED
EARLIER TRENDING UP INTO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KGUP WITH THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MVFR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY AT KSAF. KROW AND KLVS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT KTCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  43  20  41 /  40  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  21  38  13  38 /  50  20  20   5
CUBA............................  22  37  16  36 /  60  20  20   5
GALLUP..........................  23  42  15  42 /  50  30   5   5
EL MORRO........................  22  36  16  37 /  60  40  10   5
GRANTS..........................  23  42  12  42 /  40  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  35  21  37 /  40  50  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  28  49  25  51 /  40  40  20   0
CHAMA...........................  19  37  12  36 /  60  30  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  37  25  37 /  40  20  20   5
PECOS...........................  24  38  21  37 /  30  20  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  34  10  33 /  40  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  15  32  11  29 /  60  30  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  11  36  -1  34 /  40  20  20  10
TAOS............................  19  38  11  36 /  30  20  20   5
MORA............................  24  42  18  39 /  30  10  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  24  43  22  41 /  30  10  10   0
SANTA FE........................  27  37  24  38 /  40  20  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  24  41  21  42 /  30  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  27  42  26  43 /  30  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  45  26  45 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  27  46  23  46 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  45  26  45 /  30  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  46  20  46 /  20  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  43  27  46 /  30  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  28  48  26  49 /  20  20  20   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  26  40  23  38 /  50  20  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  29  42  20  40 /  40  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  20  43  14  41 /  30  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  40  19  40 /  20  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  27  43  25  42 /  30  20  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  47  25  47 /  20  10  40   5
RUIDOSO.........................  23  45  20  45 /  20  20  50   5
CAPULIN.........................  21  42  19  40 /  30  10  20   5
RATON...........................  19  46  15  45 /  20  10  10   5
SPRINGER........................  21  48  17  46 /  20   5  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  46  18  45 /  10   5  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  47  26  48 /  20   5  10   5
ROY.............................  23  47  21  47 /  10   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  50  28  50 /   5   5  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  32  52  27  50 /   5   5  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  51  26  49 /   5   5  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  30  54  29  50 /   5   5  30   5
PORTALES........................  31  55  30  51 /   5   5  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  55  28  51 /   5   5  20   5
ROSWELL.........................  31  58  30  56 /   5   5  30   5
PICACHO.........................  31  52  29  51 /   5  10  40   5
ELK.............................  29  50  26  49 /  10  10  40   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>504-506-508-510>514.

&&

$$

33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 171749 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1049 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF TWO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW...
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
IMPROVEMENT ALREADY OBSERVED THOUGH...WITH TERMINALS IMPACTED
EARLIER TRENDING UP INTO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KGUP WITH THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MVFR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY AT KSAF. KROW AND KLVS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT KTCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SANTA FE METRO AND THE LOWER CHAMA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING ESPANOLA TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VALLEY AREAS IN AND AROUND ESPANOLA RADIATIVELY
COOLED LAST NIGHT SO SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER THERE. ALSO RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM EASTERN CIBOLA COUNTY EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SANGRE DE CRISTOS UNDERNEATH AND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER/CIRCULATION.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510>514-517-518.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 171749 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1049 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF TWO
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF SNOW...
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
IMPROVEMENT ALREADY OBSERVED THOUGH...WITH TERMINALS IMPACTED
EARLIER TRENDING UP INTO MVFR AND VFR CATEGORIES. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DETERIORATE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT KGUP WITH THE
ONSET OF ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MVFR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE...MOST
LIKELY AT KSAF. KROW AND KLVS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AT KTCC
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

11

&&

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SANTA FE METRO AND THE LOWER CHAMA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING ESPANOLA TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VALLEY AREAS IN AND AROUND ESPANOLA RADIATIVELY
COOLED LAST NIGHT SO SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER THERE. ALSO RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM EASTERN CIBOLA COUNTY EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SANGRE DE CRISTOS UNDERNEATH AND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER/CIRCULATION.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510>514-517-518.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 171643 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
943 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SANTA FE METRO AND THE LOWER CHAMA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING ESPANOLA TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VALLEY AREAS IN AND AROUND ESPANOLA RADIATIVELY
COOLED LAST NIGHT SO SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER THERE. ALSO RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM EASTERN CIBOLA COUNTY EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SANGRE DE CRISTOS UNDERNEATH AND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER/CIRCULATION.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...449 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BUT IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CATEGORIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN/SNOW. THE
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/SAF SHOULD SEE
PREDOMINATE SN WHILE OTHER SITES LIKE FMN/AEG/ABQ COULD SEE A MIX.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE
SH DIE OFF TONIGHT...SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES COULD EXPERIENCE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIG/VIS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
FMN/GUP.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510>514-517-518.

&&

$$

33










000
FXUS65 KABQ 171643 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
943 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE SANTA FE METRO AND THE LOWER CHAMA
RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING ESPANOLA TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. VALLEY AREAS IN AND AROUND ESPANOLA RADIATIVELY
COOLED LAST NIGHT SO SNOW LEVELS ARE LOWER THERE. ALSO RAISED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM EASTERN CIBOLA COUNTY EAST AND
NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL SANGRE DE CRISTOS UNDERNEATH AND ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER/CIRCULATION.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...449 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BUT IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CATEGORIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN/SNOW. THE
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/SAF SHOULD SEE
PREDOMINATE SN WHILE OTHER SITES LIKE FMN/AEG/ABQ COULD SEE A MIX.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE
SH DIE OFF TONIGHT...SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES COULD EXPERIENCE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIG/VIS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
FMN/GUP.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510>514-517-518.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 171149 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BUT IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CATEGORIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN/SNOW. THE
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/SAF SHOULD SEE
PREDOMINATE SN WHILE OTHER SITES LIKE FMN/AEG/ABQ COULD SEE A MIX.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE
SH DIE OFF TONIGHT...SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES COULD EXPERIENCE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIG/VIS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
FMN/GUP.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 171149 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HRS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BUT IMPROVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOK
FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR CATEGORIES ASSOCIATED WITH RAIN/SNOW. THE
HIGHER ELEVATION TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/SAF SHOULD SEE
PREDOMINATE SN WHILE OTHER SITES LIKE FMN/AEG/ABQ COULD SEE A MIX.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. AS THE
SH DIE OFF TONIGHT...SOME OF THE TERMINAL SITES COULD EXPERIENCE
REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER CIG/VIS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
FMN/GUP.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 171012
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORN HOURS WED ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RA AND SN. MOST OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUEMADO
TO RIO RANCHO TO SAF AND RTN. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR IN THIS AREA STARTING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SHSN. GUP
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE LOW
CIGS AND PRECIP. MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND SAF
BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 23Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WED MORN AT ROW WITH A LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN EAST OR SE OF THOSE
SITES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  26  42  20 /  70  40  20   5
DULCE...........................  37  21  37  14 /  70  50  20  20
CUBA............................  37  22  36  16 /  80  60  20  20
GALLUP..........................  39  21  39  14 /  80  40  20   5
EL MORRO........................  36  21  35  13 /  70  50  30  10
GRANTS..........................  41  22  40  13 /  60  40  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  38  23  34  22 /  60  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  50  31  48  28 /  50  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  36  19  35  13 /  80  60  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  28  37  25 /  60  40  20  20
PECOS...........................  37  25  38  21 /  50  30  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  16  33  11 /  70  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  14  31   6 /  80  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  11  34   3 /  70  40  20  20
TAOS............................  39  19  38  14 /  60  30  20  20
MORA............................  40  24  40  18 /  50  30  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  43  26  42  22 /  40  30  10  10
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  25 /  60  40  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  23  41  21 /  50  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  28  43  27 /  60  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  29  45  28 /  50  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  26  46  25 /  50  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  28  45  26 /  50  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  22  46  21 /  50  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  47  30  45  27 /  50  30  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  52  28  47  27 /  30  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  26  39  24 /  60  30  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  41  24 /  60  30  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  19  42  18 /  40  30  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  24  39  20 /  50  20  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  27  41  25 /  40  30  10  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  28  45  26 /  30  20  10  40
RUIDOSO.........................  43  24  44  22 /  40  20  10  50
CAPULIN.........................  42  19  40  17 /  40  20  10  20
RATON...........................  45  20  45  16 /  40  20  10  20
SPRINGER........................  48  21  46  20 /  30  10   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  23  45  18 /  40  10   5  20
CLAYTON.........................  50  25  45  26 /  10  10   5  20
ROY.............................  48  24  46  23 /  20  10   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  54  30  50  30 /  10   5   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  55  32  51  29 /  20   5   5  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  29  51  27 /  10   0   5  20
CLOVIS..........................  54  31  53  29 /  10   0   5  30
PORTALES........................  55  30  54  29 /  10   0   5  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  54  31  54  30 /  10   0   5  20
ROSWELL.........................  61  31  56  32 /   5   0   5  30
PICACHO.........................  52  31  51  30 /  20   5   5  40
ELK.............................  49  30  49  28 /  30  10  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$

34








000
FXUS65 KABQ 171012
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FAVOR WESTERN...AND PERHAPS TO SOME
EXTENT...CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 1 TO 3 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
COMMON ABOVE 6000 FEET...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AFTER THE LAST SYSTEM EXITS THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...A
MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY WILL PREVAIL...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME
FOR THAT TO CHANGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER MANY DIFFERENT DEPICTIONS OF TODAYS EVENT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS THAT THEY HAVE FINALLY COME
INTO AGREEMENT. TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CROSS NM
TODAY...BOTH CURRENTLY WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
FIRST IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS
MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIGHTNING OFF
THE COAST OF CALI. SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FIRST SYSTEM IN ARIZONA AND TO SOME EXTENT WESTERN NM. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CROSS NM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW THE FAVORED AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE NW QUARTER OF NM. TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW EVEN
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU...THUS A GOOD CALL BY THE EVENING CREW TO
ADD ZONE 501 TO THE WINTER WX ADVY. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL
COME QUICKLY AFTER THE FIRST AND CROSS NM LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVE. SNOW LEVELS THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 5500-6000 FEET OR SO.
WHILE THE FIRST SYSTEM MAY BRING A MORE SOLID AREA OF SNOW...THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE...AND MAY EVEN SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL GENERALLY
BE FAVORED FOR PRECIPITATION.ONE INTERESTING NOTE...HOWEVER...IS
THAT THE HRRR HAS TRENDED BACK ON PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS...AT LEAST WITH PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTN.
WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE WINTER WX ADVYS LOOK PRETTY GOOD...THOUGH
SNOW AMOUNTS WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OF ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST AREAS.

A THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE CWA. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERY ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE WEST AGAIN...BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA...FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MTNS TO ROOSEVELT COUNTY...WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT EVEN THEN...AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. COLD TEMPS
WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS LOW...GENERALLY AOB 5500 FEET.

AFTER THE THIRD SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY SHOULD BE
QUIET...THOUGH STILL CHILLY. MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH CROSSING NM
ON SATURDAY...BUT LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT SO NOT
EXPECTING PRECIP ATTM. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
BE THE RULE. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW MAY
CLIP NE NM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. OTHERWISE...DRIER CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
WITH SOME CHANCES OF WETTING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND SYSTEM JUST LOOKS TOO DRY.
GUSTIER NW WINDS AND DECENT VENTILATION IN AREAS EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AND SOME ORGANIZATION
IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELD OVER ARIZONA. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY PERIOD WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. OROGRAPHIC
WEST FACING SLOPES LOOK TO BE FAVORED WITH THE WETTING
PRECIPITATION. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE SCANT PRECIPITATION RESULTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGH RH VALUES FAVORING
THE WESTERN HALF. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND WILL COMBINE WITH
RISING MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE IMPROVING VENTILATION MOST AREAS.
THE SOUTHERN HALF WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GOOD TO EXCELLENT RATINGS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN RIDGES/PEAKS.

A SECONDARY PACIFIC WAVE OR TROUGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN TAKING THE MAIN PIECE OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH SO IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WX
AREA LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. EITHER WAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL MOST AREAS WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY READINGS. MIXING
HEIGHTS APPEAR TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN
NORMAL ALTHOUGH TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LOWER COMPARED TO TODAY/S
VALUES. THUS...VENT RATES WILL LOWER. LOOKING AT A STRIP OF FAIR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN FARMINGTON TO THE ESTANCIA VALLEY BUT WOULD ONLY
BE FAIR FOR 2 TO 4 HRS MOST LOCATIONS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
A NON EVENT. THERE WILL BE A PACIFIC WAVE CAUGHT IN NW FLOW MOVING
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. STRENGTHENING NW FLOW WILL BE FOUND ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE WAVE AND PROVIDE SOME BREEZES ON SUNDAY.
ESPECIALLY IMPACTING THE MT TAYLOR TO CLINES CORNER AREA. SURFACE
WINDS ON SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE LIGHT. VENTILATION RATES ON SATURDAY
LOOK TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH SOME FAIR TO GOOD CONDITIONS
GENERALLY LASTING A FEW HRS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GUSTIER NW FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD
IMPROVE IN AREAS DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS BUT LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS WILL PRESENT SOME OF THE AREA FROM GETTING INTO THE
FAIR/GOOD TO EXCELLENT READINGS. SUSPECT VENT RATE VALUES WILL
ADJUST SOME AS THE FLOW ADJUSTS. THE FLOW DOES LOOK TO BE DRIER WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING A BIT WARMER. THE GFS IS DRY BUT THE ECMWF IS
STILL SPITTING OUT LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST ON
TUESDAY. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WORTH OF CONSISTENT
MODEL RUNS BEFORE TOTALLY BUYING OFF ON THIS SCENARIO.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORN HOURS WED ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RA AND SN. MOST OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUEMADO
TO RIO RANCHO TO SAF AND RTN. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR IN THIS AREA STARTING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SHSN. GUP
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE LOW
CIGS AND PRECIP. MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND SAF
BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 23Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WED MORN AT ROW WITH A LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN EAST OR SE OF THOSE
SITES. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  26  42  20 /  70  40  20   5
DULCE...........................  37  21  37  14 /  70  50  20  20
CUBA............................  37  22  36  16 /  80  60  20  20
GALLUP..........................  39  21  39  14 /  80  40  20   5
EL MORRO........................  36  21  35  13 /  70  50  30  10
GRANTS..........................  41  22  40  13 /  60  40  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  38  23  34  22 /  60  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  50  31  48  28 /  50  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  36  19  35  13 /  80  60  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  28  37  25 /  60  40  20  20
PECOS...........................  37  25  38  21 /  50  30  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  16  33  11 /  70  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  14  31   6 /  80  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  11  34   3 /  70  40  20  20
TAOS............................  39  19  38  14 /  60  30  20  20
MORA............................  40  24  40  18 /  50  30  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  43  26  42  22 /  40  30  10  10
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  25 /  60  40  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  23  41  21 /  50  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  28  43  27 /  60  30  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  29  45  28 /  50  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  26  46  25 /  50  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  28  45  26 /  50  20  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  22  46  21 /  50  20  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  47  30  45  27 /  50  30  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  52  28  47  27 /  30  20  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  26  39  24 /  60  30  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  41  24 /  60  30  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  19  42  18 /  40  30  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  24  39  20 /  50  20  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  27  41  25 /  40  30  10  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  28  45  26 /  30  20  10  40
RUIDOSO.........................  43  24  44  22 /  40  20  10  50
CAPULIN.........................  42  19  40  17 /  40  20  10  20
RATON...........................  45  20  45  16 /  40  20  10  20
SPRINGER........................  48  21  46  20 /  30  10   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  23  45  18 /  40  10   5  20
CLAYTON.........................  50  25  45  26 /  10  10   5  20
ROY.............................  48  24  46  23 /  20  10   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  54  30  50  30 /  10   5   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  55  32  51  29 /  20   5   5  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  57  29  51  27 /  10   0   5  20
CLOVIS..........................  54  31  53  29 /  10   0   5  30
PORTALES........................  55  30  54  29 /  10   0   5  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  54  31  54  30 /  10   0   5  20
ROSWELL.........................  61  31  56  32 /   5   0   5  30
PICACHO.........................  52  31  51  30 /  20   5   5  40
ELK.............................  49  30  49  28 /  30  10  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 170601 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORN HOURS WED ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RA AND SN. MOST OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUEMADO
TO RIO RANCHO TO SAF AND RTN. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR IN THIS AREA STARTING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SHSN. GUP
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE LOW
CIGS AND PRECIP. MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND SAF
BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 23Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WED MORN AT ROW WITH A LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN EAST OR SE OF THOSE
SITES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1028 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.UPDATE...
ADDED NW PLATEAU REGION TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM/HRRR/NSSL WRF/LOCAL 5KM WRF AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 2AM FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...DULCE...AND CHAMA THROUGH NOON. QPF VALUES FROM THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION/NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.40 INCHES.
SURFACE TO 700MB TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR SNOW FOR
THAT ENTIRE AREA. CHANGED THE MODE TO STRATIFORM SNOW WORDING AS
WELL. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 6500
FEET OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-TROPICAL JET CONTINUING TO BRING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD
THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF TWO RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER NM WEDNESDAY. MODELS
FINALLY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES AND
BRING THEM EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS AND NAM12 IN PARTICULAR BRING AN ORGANIZED HEAVY BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NWD THROUGH NWRN NM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS LONGER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
THIRD SHORT- WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SOMETIME
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... REMAINS IN THE BEYOND FRIDAY AS
A VERY STRONG JET STREAM (~200KT) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
IS RESULTING IN LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRY NWLY OR NLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA
OF A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. STILL IN FANTASY-LAND OF THE
WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL WORLD BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS MANY
FOLKS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL BY CAR THIS CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW GAS PRICES AND A FOUR DAY WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. OTHERWISE...A
COMPLEX TROUGHING PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK...WITH A TOTAL OF THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY SSW OF SOCAL...WILL MOVE
ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
AND WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NUMBER TWO...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALI...WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES.
THE FINAL TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING BUT FAVORING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING WEEKEND TROUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A POOR VENTILATION DAY AND THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. ALSO FORECASTING A
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH SCENARIO. BEYOND THE WEEKEND TROUGH...THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW...WARMING TEMPS AND A
MIXED-BAG FOR VENT RATES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A POTENTIAL MAJOR TROUGH/UPPER LOW
IMPACTING THE REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 170601 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER ACROSS MOST AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORN HOURS WED ALONG WITH
AREAS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RA AND SN. MOST OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUEMADO
TO RIO RANCHO TO SAF AND RTN. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
OCCASIONALLY IFR IN THIS AREA STARTING BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z WITH A
FEW INSTANCES OF LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN HEAVIER SHSN. GUP
AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE LOW
CIGS AND PRECIP. MARGINALLY MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND SAF
BETWEEN ABOUT 15 AND 23Z WED AND AGAIN AFTER 02Z. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z WED MORN AT ROW WITH A LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH STILL LOOKS A
LITTLE MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK WILL REMAIN EAST OR SE OF THOSE
SITES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1028 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.UPDATE...
ADDED NW PLATEAU REGION TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM/HRRR/NSSL WRF/LOCAL 5KM WRF AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 2AM FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...DULCE...AND CHAMA THROUGH NOON. QPF VALUES FROM THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION/NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.40 INCHES.
SURFACE TO 700MB TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR SNOW FOR
THAT ENTIRE AREA. CHANGED THE MODE TO STRATIFORM SNOW WORDING AS
WELL. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 6500
FEET OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-TROPICAL JET CONTINUING TO BRING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD
THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF TWO RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER NM WEDNESDAY. MODELS
FINALLY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES AND
BRING THEM EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS AND NAM12 IN PARTICULAR BRING AN ORGANIZED HEAVY BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NWD THROUGH NWRN NM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS LONGER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
THIRD SHORT- WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SOMETIME
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... REMAINS IN THE BEYOND FRIDAY AS
A VERY STRONG JET STREAM (~200KT) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
IS RESULTING IN LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRY NWLY OR NLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA
OF A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. STILL IN FANTASY-LAND OF THE
WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL WORLD BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS MANY
FOLKS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL BY CAR THIS CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW GAS PRICES AND A FOUR DAY WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. OTHERWISE...A
COMPLEX TROUGHING PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK...WITH A TOTAL OF THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY SSW OF SOCAL...WILL MOVE
ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
AND WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NUMBER TWO...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALI...WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES.
THE FINAL TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING BUT FAVORING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING WEEKEND TROUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A POOR VENTILATION DAY AND THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. ALSO FORECASTING A
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH SCENARIO. BEYOND THE WEEKEND TROUGH...THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW...WARMING TEMPS AND A
MIXED-BAG FOR VENT RATES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A POTENTIAL MAJOR TROUGH/UPPER LOW
IMPACTING THE REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 170528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1028 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED NW PLATEAU REGION TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM/HRRR/NSSL WRF/LOCAL 5KM WRF AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 2AM FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...DULCE...AND CHAMA THROUGH NOON. QPF VALUES FROM THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION/NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.40 INCHES.
SURFACE TO 700MB TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR SNOW FOR
THAT ENTIRE AREA. CHANGED THE MODE TO STRATIFORM SNOW WORDING AS
WELL. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...505 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY TOP DOWN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE TOWARD NM. RESULT
WILL BE A CONTINUED GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NW MTS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS OF -RA AND -SN EARLY WED MORN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM.
GUP AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE
LOW CIGS AND PRECIP. AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z A FEW PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS
POSS NEAR AND WEST OF DIVIDE. MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND
SAF BETWEEN ABOUT 13 AND 19Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED MORN AT ROW
WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH
MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK TO REMAIN EAST OF THOSE TERMINAL FCST
SITES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 6500
FEET OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-TROPICAL JET CONTINUING TO BRING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD
THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF TWO RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER NM WEDNESDAY. MODELS
FINALLY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES AND
BRING THEM EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS AND NAM12 IN PARTICULAR BRING AN ORGANIZED HEAVY BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NWD THROUGH NWRN NM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS LONGER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
THIRD SHORT- WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SOMETIME
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... REMAINS IN THE BEYOND FRIDAY AS
A VERY STRONG JET STREAM (~200KT) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
IS RESULTING IN LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRY NWLY OR NLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA
OF A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. STILL IN FANTASY-LAND OF THE
WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL WORLD BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS MANY
FOLKS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL BY CAR THIS CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW GAS PRICES AND A FOUR DAY WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. OTHERWISE...A
COMPLEX TROUGHING PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK...WITH A TOTAL OF THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY SSW OF SOCAL...WILL MOVE
ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
AND WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NUMBER TWO...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALI...WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES.
THE FINAL TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING BUT FAVORING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING WEEKEND TROUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A POOR VENTILATION DAY AND THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. ALSO FORECASTING A
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH SCENARIO. BEYOND THE WEEKEND TROUGH...THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW...WARMING TEMPS AND A
MIXED-BAG FOR VENT RATES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A POTENTIAL MAJOR TROUGH/UPPER LOW
IMPACTING THE REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 170528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1028 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED NW PLATEAU REGION TO THE WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST 00Z NAM/HRRR/NSSL WRF/LOCAL 5KM WRF AND
TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS...SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF SNOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 2AM FROM GALLUP TO GRANTS NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...DULCE...AND CHAMA THROUGH NOON. QPF VALUES FROM THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION/NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE IS ON THE ORDER OF 0.20-0.40 INCHES.
SURFACE TO 700MB TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL FAVOR SNOW FOR
THAT ENTIRE AREA. CHANGED THE MODE TO STRATIFORM SNOW WORDING AS
WELL. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...505 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY TOP DOWN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASE CONTINUING IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ENE TOWARD NM. RESULT
WILL BE A CONTINUED GRADUAL LOWERING OF CIGS TO MVFR AND IFR
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AND THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NW MTS...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF
AREAS OF -RA AND -SN EARLY WED MORN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW NM.
GUP AND TO SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE FMN TO BE MOST IMPACTED BY THE
LOW CIGS AND PRECIP. AFTER ROUGHLY 10Z A FEW PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS
POSS NEAR AND WEST OF DIVIDE. MVFR CIGS POSS AT AEG...ABQ AND
SAF BETWEEN ABOUT 13 AND 19Z WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP WED MORN AT ROW
WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SAME AT TCC SAME TIME PERIOD...THOUGH
MORE LIKELY THAT MVFR DECK TO REMAIN EAST OF THOSE TERMINAL FCST
SITES.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD TO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ABOVE ABOUT 6500
FEET OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER RATHER WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWESTERLY SUB-TROPICAL JET CONTINUING TO BRING PLENTY OF HIGH
CLOUDS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD
THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF TWO RATHER POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORT- WAVE
TROUGHS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER NM WEDNESDAY. MODELS
FINALLY SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THE SPEED OF THESE FEATURES AND
BRING THEM EWD ACROSS WRN AND NRN NM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MODELS AND NAM12 IN PARTICULAR BRING AN ORGANIZED HEAVY BAND OF
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS NWD THROUGH NWRN NM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS LONGER. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FEET OR SO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
THIRD SHORT- WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIVE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE CLOSE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...COMBINE
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ABOUT 6000 FT
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NM SOMETIME
FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WAVE IN THE TRAIN EXPECTED SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE...HOWEVER... REMAINS IN THE BEYOND FRIDAY AS
A VERY STRONG JET STREAM (~200KT) OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN
IS RESULTING IN LARGE RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...GFS AND ECMWF IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH MODELS INDICATING DRY NWLY OR NLY
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CHRISTMAS EVE. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE WITH IDEA
OF A LARGE AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. STILL IN FANTASY-LAND OF THE
WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL WORLD BUT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS MANY
FOLKS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL BY CAR THIS CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW GAS PRICES AND A FOUR DAY WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOSTLY POOR VENTILATION TODAY DUE TO ABUNDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS. OTHERWISE...A
COMPLEX TROUGHING PATTERN HAS SET UP FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK...WITH A TOTAL OF THREE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE REGION. THE FIRST...CURRENTLY SSW OF SOCAL...WILL MOVE
ENE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
AND WEST-FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NUMBER TWO...CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF NORTHERN CALI...WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG WEST-FACING SLOPES.
THE FINAL TROUGH TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION GOING BUT FAVORING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE STATE.

LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO MODEL
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THE DEVELOPING WEEKEND TROUGH.
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A POOR VENTILATION DAY AND THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. ALSO FORECASTING A
WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN
DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH SCENARIO. BEYOND THE WEEKEND TROUGH...THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST FLOW...WARMING TEMPS AND A
MIXED-BAG FOR VENT RATES. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH A POTENTIAL MAJOR TROUGH/UPPER LOW
IMPACTING THE REGION AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502>508-510-511.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>514.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities