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000
FXUS65 KABQ 251750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN IT. BEST
CHANCE OF A TERMINAL SITE TO BE IMPACTED WOULD BE FMN. DECIDED NOT
TO INCLUDE TS AT THIS TIME. THINKING MORE PASSING SH WITH GUSTY
WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 30KT OR EVEN HIGHER FOR A SHORT DURATION
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. DID USE VCSH A LITTLE MORE
INCLUDING GUP...SAF AND LVS. WILL UPDATE DEPENDING ON HOW CELL
DVLPMENT TRENDS. CELLS SHOULD DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW...THE UPPER HIGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
NM TODAY WITH AN AXIS ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PROJECTED
PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE POTENTIAL
FEATURE THAT MAY AID A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES IN
MOST LOCALES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BY A
DECAMETER OR TWO SATURDAY...LETTING TEMPERATURES EASE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM AGAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BEST FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOCKED UP
FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE A KEY
FEATURE AS IT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE
POOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...SO THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR STORMS. NAM MODEL DEPICTS HEFTY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHEAST. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOME GUSTY GAP/CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SUBTLE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY START VEERING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY OVER A WIDE SPAN OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ARGUABLY THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE NORTHEAST FAVORED AGAIN FOR STORMS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND REMNANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH TAKES A SLOW JAUNT
BACK TOWARD AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A VERY DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL USHER DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING
A RECHARGE TO THE MOISTURE AND KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF AN
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK WITH A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS COLORADO THAN WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO...CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION THURSDAY...AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAY AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONVECTION
WISE...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DETERMINED BY THE FORECAST THETA-E AXIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER THEY DRIED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEY WILL UNDERGO A SIMILAR TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY HELP TO FOCUS STORMS THERE...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT.

CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD SAG INTO
NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER RGV
NOTED IN THE WIND GUIDANCE...AND WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED WIND GRIDS
TO INCLUDE.

SUNDAY TO BE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN...AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE PUSH. AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR IS SUGGESTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ALONG THE CONTDVD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY
EVENT...FORECAST MIN RH VALUES OVER THIS REGION DON/T FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT
THE HIGH CENTER MAY STILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO OR ARIZONA.
DEPENDING WHERE THE HIGH CENTER ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE IF THE
MOISTURE PLUME HAS MORE OF A DIRECT...OR INDIRECT AFFECT ON NEW
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT...COULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 251750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
STATE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN IT. BEST
CHANCE OF A TERMINAL SITE TO BE IMPACTED WOULD BE FMN. DECIDED NOT
TO INCLUDE TS AT THIS TIME. THINKING MORE PASSING SH WITH GUSTY
WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 30KT OR EVEN HIGHER FOR A SHORT DURATION
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY. DID USE VCSH A LITTLE MORE
INCLUDING GUP...SAF AND LVS. WILL UPDATE DEPENDING ON HOW CELL
DVLPMENT TRENDS. CELLS SHOULD DIE OFF DURING THE EVENING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW...THE UPPER HIGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
NM TODAY WITH AN AXIS ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PROJECTED
PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE POTENTIAL
FEATURE THAT MAY AID A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES IN
MOST LOCALES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BY A
DECAMETER OR TWO SATURDAY...LETTING TEMPERATURES EASE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM AGAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BEST FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOCKED UP
FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE A KEY
FEATURE AS IT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE
POOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...SO THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR STORMS. NAM MODEL DEPICTS HEFTY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHEAST. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOME GUSTY GAP/CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SUBTLE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY START VEERING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY OVER A WIDE SPAN OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ARGUABLY THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE NORTHEAST FAVORED AGAIN FOR STORMS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND REMNANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH TAKES A SLOW JAUNT
BACK TOWARD AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A VERY DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL USHER DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING
A RECHARGE TO THE MOISTURE AND KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF AN
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK WITH A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS COLORADO THAN WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO...CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION THURSDAY...AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAY AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONVECTION
WISE...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DETERMINED BY THE FORECAST THETA-E AXIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER THEY DRIED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEY WILL UNDERGO A SIMILAR TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY HELP TO FOCUS STORMS THERE...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT.

CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD SAG INTO
NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER RGV
NOTED IN THE WIND GUIDANCE...AND WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED WIND GRIDS
TO INCLUDE.

SUNDAY TO BE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN...AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE PUSH. AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR IS SUGGESTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ALONG THE CONTDVD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY
EVENT...FORECAST MIN RH VALUES OVER THIS REGION DON/T FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT
THE HIGH CENTER MAY STILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO OR ARIZONA.
DEPENDING WHERE THE HIGH CENTER ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE IF THE
MOISTURE PLUME HAS MORE OF A DIRECT...OR INDIRECT AFFECT ON NEW
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT...COULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 251103
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
503 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE PLUME CIRCULATING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH. SFC LEE TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AFT 18Z. MOST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY BE MORE STABLE
AFT 18Z...WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY FAR WEST AND NORTH.
GENERALLY VFR THRU 26/00Z...BUT ISOLD TSRA SFC WND GUSTS 35KT MAY
BRIEFLY OBSCURE MTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW...THE UPPER HIGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
NM TODAY WITH AN AXIS ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PROJECTED
PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE POTENTIAL
FEATURE THAT MAY AID A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES IN
MOST LOCALES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BY A
DECAMETER OR TWO SATURDAY...LETTING TEMPERATURES EASE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM AGAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BEST FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOCKED UP
FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE A KEY
FEATURE AS IT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE
POOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...SO THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR STORMS. NAM MODEL DEPICTS HEFTY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHEAST. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOME GUSTY GAP/CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SUBTLE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY START VEERING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY OVER A WIDE SPAN OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ARGUABLY THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE NORTHEAST FAVORED AGAIN FOR STORMS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND REMNANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH TAKES A SLOW JAUNT
BACK TOWARD AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A VERY DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL USHER DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING
A RECHARGE TO THE MOISTURE AND KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF AN
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK WITH A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS COLORADO THAN WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO...CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION THURSDAY...AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAY AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONVECTION
WISE...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DETERMINED BY THE FORECAST THETA-E AXIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER THEY DRIED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEY WILL UNDERGO A SIMILAR TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY HELP TO FOCUS STORMS THERE...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT.

CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD SAG INTO
NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER RGV
NOTED IN THE WIND GUIDANCE...AND WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED WIND GRIDS
TO INCLUDE.

SUNDAY TO BE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN...AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE PUSH. AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR IS SUGGESTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ALONG THE CONTDVD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY
EVENT...FORECAST MIN RH VALUES OVER THIS REGION DON/T FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT
THE HIGH CENTER MAY STILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO OR ARIZONA.
DEPENDING WHERE THE HIGH CENTER ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE IF THE
MOISTURE PLUME HAS MORE OF A DIRECT...OR INDIRECT AFFECT ON NEW
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT...COULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 251103
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
503 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WITH MOISTURE PLUME CIRCULATING AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGH. SFC LEE TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE BUT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AFT 18Z. MOST OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY BE MORE STABLE
AFT 18Z...WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY FAR WEST AND NORTH.
GENERALLY VFR THRU 26/00Z...BUT ISOLD TSRA SFC WND GUSTS 35KT MAY
BRIEFLY OBSCURE MTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW...THE UPPER HIGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
NM TODAY WITH AN AXIS ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PROJECTED
PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE POTENTIAL
FEATURE THAT MAY AID A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES IN
MOST LOCALES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BY A
DECAMETER OR TWO SATURDAY...LETTING TEMPERATURES EASE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM AGAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BEST FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOCKED UP
FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE A KEY
FEATURE AS IT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE
POOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...SO THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR STORMS. NAM MODEL DEPICTS HEFTY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHEAST. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOME GUSTY GAP/CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SUBTLE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY START VEERING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY OVER A WIDE SPAN OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ARGUABLY THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE NORTHEAST FAVORED AGAIN FOR STORMS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND REMNANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH TAKES A SLOW JAUNT
BACK TOWARD AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A VERY DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL USHER DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING
A RECHARGE TO THE MOISTURE AND KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF AN
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK WITH A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS COLORADO THAN WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO...CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION THURSDAY...AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAY AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONVECTION
WISE...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DETERMINED BY THE FORECAST THETA-E AXIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER THEY DRIED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEY WILL UNDERGO A SIMILAR TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY HELP TO FOCUS STORMS THERE...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT.

CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD SAG INTO
NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER RGV
NOTED IN THE WIND GUIDANCE...AND WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED WIND GRIDS
TO INCLUDE.

SUNDAY TO BE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN...AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE PUSH. AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR IS SUGGESTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ALONG THE CONTDVD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY
EVENT...FORECAST MIN RH VALUES OVER THIS REGION DON/T FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT
THE HIGH CENTER MAY STILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO OR ARIZONA.
DEPENDING WHERE THE HIGH CENTER ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE IF THE
MOISTURE PLUME HAS MORE OF A DIRECT...OR INDIRECT AFFECT ON NEW
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT...COULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW...THE UPPER HIGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
NM TODAY WITH AN AXIS ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PROJECTED
PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE POTENTIAL
FEATURE THAT MAY AID A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES IN
MOST LOCALES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BY A
DECAMETER OR TWO SATURDAY...LETTING TEMPERATURES EASE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM AGAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BEST FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOCKED UP
FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE A KEY
FEATURE AS IT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE
POOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...SO THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR STORMS. NAM MODEL DEPICTS HEFTY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHEAST. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOME GUSTY GAP/CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SUBTLE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY START VEERING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY OVER A WIDE SPAN OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ARGUABLY THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE NORTHEAST FAVORED AGAIN FOR STORMS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND REMNANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH TAKES A SLOW JAUNT
BACK TOWARD AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A VERY DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL USHER DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING
A RECHARGE TO THE MOISTURE AND KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF AN
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK WITH A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS COLORADO THAN WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO...CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION THURSDAY...AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAY AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONVECTION
WISE...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DETERMINED BY THE FORECAST THETA-E AXIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER THEY DRIED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEY WILL UNDERGO A SIMILAR TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY HELP TO FOCUS STORMS THERE...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT.

CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD SAG INTO
NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER RGV
NOTED IN THE WIND GUIDANCE...AND WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED WIND GRIDS
TO INCLUDE.

SUNDAY TO BE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN...AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE PUSH. AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR IS SUGGESTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ALONG THE CONTDVD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY
EVENT...FORECAST MIN RH VALUES OVER THIS REGION DON/T FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT
THE HIGH CENTER MAY STILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO OR ARIZONA.
DEPENDING WHERE THE HIGH CENTER ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE IF THE
MOISTURE PLUME HAS MORE OF A DIRECT...OR INDIRECT AFFECT ON NEW
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT...COULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNEVENTFUL WX REMAINDER OF TNGT THRU FRI AM.  JUST PATCHY VFR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGERING NEAR THE NM/CO LINE. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THAT EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN TODAY/S TSRA CROP WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRI PM...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
NM AND AREAS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS
FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. STILL A LOW GRADE MONSOON
FCST WITH QUIET VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. MOST CONFIDENT OF
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT KFMN AFTER 19Z FRI WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KGUP. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT REMAINING
TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WOULD FAVOR
KLVS IF STORMS FIRE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  64  96  64 /  20  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  87  52  90  53 /  30  20  20  20
CUBA............................  89  57  91  56 /  20  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  91  59  92  59 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  86  55 /  10  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  90  57  91  57 /  10  20  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  88  58  88  58 /  10  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  94  61  93  60 /   5   5  30  30
CHAMA...........................  82  48  83  48 /  40  30  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  87  60  88  60 /  20  10  20  20
PECOS...........................  86  58  87  58 /  20  10  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  53  83  53 /  30  30  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  75  43  76  44 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  79  41  81  42 /  30  20  40  40
TAOS............................  88  52  89  55 /  30  20  30  30
MORA............................  86  54  87  55 /  30  20  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  91  59  93  60 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  89  62  90  62 /  20   5  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  60  93  61 /  10   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  93  67  94  68 /   5   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  70  96  71 /   5   5   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  97  64  98  66 /   5   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  97  65  98  66 /   5   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  97  65  98  66 /   5   0   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  97  69  99  70 /   5   0   5  10
SOCORRO......................... 100  69 101  70 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  61  91  61 /   5   5  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  92  62  93  62 /   5   5  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  94  57  95  58 /   5   5  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  61  92  62 /   5   5  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  91  62  93  64 /   0   0  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  93  63  94  64 /   5   0  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  87  55  86  54 /   5   5  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  88  57  88  56 /  20  30  30  50
RATON...........................  93  58  93  60 /  30  20  30  40
SPRINGER........................  93  60  94  61 /  20  20  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  90  57  91  58 /  20  10  30  40
CLAYTON.........................  99  67  99  67 /  10  20  20  30
ROY.............................  94  64  94  64 /  10  10  20  30
CONCHAS......................... 100  69 101  69 /   0   5  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  98  67  99  68 /   0   0  10  20
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  71 102  71 /   0   0   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  98  68 100  69 /   0   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  68 100  69 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL......................... 100  69 102  70 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  94  65  96  65 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  61  88  62 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 250932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY
WITH MEAGER MOISTURE WORKING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN DRY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM TO HOT TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS HAS BEEN PROGGED BY THE FORECAST MODELS FOR A FEW DAYS
NOW...THE UPPER HIGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER
NM TODAY WITH AN AXIS ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. PROJECTED
PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.75 TO
1.00 INCH WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS...MOSTLY IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR STORMS ELSEWHERE. ONE POTENTIAL
FEATURE THAT MAY AID A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A COUPLE DEGREES IN
MOST LOCALES OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SOME TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS IN THE EASTERN ZONES.

IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE H5 PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE BY A
DECAMETER OR TWO SATURDAY...LETTING TEMPERATURES EASE UP ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO WITH MORE TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC STORMS WOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL FORCING MECHANISM AGAIN IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WITH THE BEST FRONTAL PUSH STILL LOCKED UP
FARTHER NORTH INTO NEBRASKA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

THE STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NM UNTIL MID MORNING SUNDAY...AND THIS WILL BE A KEY
FEATURE AS IT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED FOCUS FOR INCREASED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL BE
POOLING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...SO THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION...COUPLED WITH FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...WILL ACT AS A
CATALYST FOR STORMS. NAM MODEL DEPICTS HEFTY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG NEAR THE BOUNDARY...AND THUS SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CELLS COULD DEVELOP INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
NORTHEAST. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOME GUSTY GAP/CANYON WINDS
HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG
WITH THE SUBTLE ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

THE SURFACE WINDS WILL LARGELY START VEERING MORE SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY INTO MONDAY OVER A WIDE SPAN OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ARGUABLY THE RETREAT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WOULD
LEAVE THE NORTHEAST FAVORED AGAIN FOR STORMS DUE TO UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS AND REMNANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER HIGH TAKES A SLOW JAUNT
BACK TOWARD AZ BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND A VERY DEEP
EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL USHER DOWN ANOTHER COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS WEDNESDAY BOUNDARY WILL BACK INTO NORTHEAST NM AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BRINGING
A RECHARGE TO THE MOISTURE AND KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KICK OFF AN
ACTIVE END TO THE WEEK WITH A BIG UPTICK IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE PLUME HAS PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED
OVER ARIZONA AND ACROSS COLORADO THAN WAS OBSERVED 24 HRS
AGO...CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR ENTRAINED IN THE CIRCULATION PRETTY
MUCH SHUT DOWN CONVECTION THURSDAY...AND THE LOCATION OF THE DRIER
AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAY AGAIN BE A LIMITING FACTOR CONVECTION
WISE...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS DETERMINED BY THE FORECAST THETA-E AXIS...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST THE DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY. DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RECOVERING AFTER THEY DRIED OUT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEY WILL UNDERGO A SIMILAR TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
MAY HELP TO FOCUS STORMS THERE...OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES AGAIN IN THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL BEFORE MID
AFTERNOON TODAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MIN RH VALUES TO DROP BELOW 15
PERCENT.

CONVECTION SHOULD START TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT STRETCHED OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. DEPENDING
WHERE THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS...THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD SAG INTO
NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF EAST WINDS INTO THE UPPER RGV
NOTED IN THE WIND GUIDANCE...AND WENT AHEAD AND TWEAKED WIND GRIDS
TO INCLUDE.

SUNDAY TO BE MORE ACTIVE AGAIN...AS WETTING RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...COURTESY OF THE
STRONGER SURFACE PUSH. AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET RIGHT NOW...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR IS SUGGESTED TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MORE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ALONG THE CONTDVD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE DEWPOINT FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ANY
EVENT...FORECAST MIN RH VALUES OVER THIS REGION DON/T FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALL TO
NEAR OR EVEN A BIT BELOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STRENGTHENS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT
THE HIGH CENTER MAY STILL REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO OR ARIZONA.
DEPENDING WHERE THE HIGH CENTER ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE IF THE
MOISTURE PLUME HAS MORE OF A DIRECT...OR INDIRECT AFFECT ON NEW
MEXICO. A SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AND ANOTHER VIGOROUS FRONT...COULD KEEP THE WEATHER ACTIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNEVENTFUL WX REMAINDER OF TNGT THRU FRI AM.  JUST PATCHY VFR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGERING NEAR THE NM/CO LINE. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THAT EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN TODAY/S TSRA CROP WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRI PM...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
NM AND AREAS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS
FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. STILL A LOW GRADE MONSOON
FCST WITH QUIET VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. MOST CONFIDENT OF
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT KFMN AFTER 19Z FRI WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KGUP. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT REMAINING
TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WOULD FAVOR
KLVS IF STORMS FIRE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  64  96  64 /  20  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  87  52  90  53 /  30  20  20  20
CUBA............................  89  57  91  56 /  20  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  91  59  92  59 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  86  55 /  10  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  90  57  91  57 /  10  20  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  88  58  88  58 /  10  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  94  61  93  60 /   5   5  30  30
CHAMA...........................  82  48  83  48 /  40  30  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  87  60  88  60 /  20  10  20  20
PECOS...........................  86  58  87  58 /  20  10  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  53  83  53 /  30  30  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  75  43  76  44 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  79  41  81  42 /  30  20  40  40
TAOS............................  88  52  89  55 /  30  20  30  30
MORA............................  86  54  87  55 /  30  20  30  40
ESPANOLA........................  91  59  93  60 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  89  62  90  62 /  20   5  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  60  93  61 /  10   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  93  67  94  68 /   5   5  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  70  96  71 /   5   5   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  97  64  98  66 /   5   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  97  65  98  66 /   5   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  97  65  98  66 /   5   0   5  10
RIO RANCHO......................  97  69  99  70 /   5   0   5  10
SOCORRO......................... 100  69 101  70 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  61  91  61 /   5   5  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  92  62  93  62 /   5   5  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  94  57  95  58 /   5   5  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  61  92  62 /   5   5  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  91  62  93  64 /   0   0  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  93  63  94  64 /   5   0  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  87  55  86  54 /   5   5  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  88  57  88  56 /  20  30  30  50
RATON...........................  93  58  93  60 /  30  20  30  40
SPRINGER........................  93  60  94  61 /  20  20  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  90  57  91  58 /  20  10  30  40
CLAYTON.........................  99  67  99  67 /  10  20  20  30
ROY.............................  94  64  94  64 /  10  10  20  30
CONCHAS......................... 100  69 101  69 /   0   5  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  98  67  99  68 /   0   0  10  20
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  71 102  71 /   0   0   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  96  66  98  66 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  98  68 100  69 /   0   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  68 100  69 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL......................... 100  69 102  70 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  94  65  96  65 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  61  88  62 /   5   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 250531 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1131 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNEVENTFUL WX REMAINDER OF TNGT THRU FRI AM.  JUST PATCHY VFR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGERING NEAR THE NM/CO LINE. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THAT EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN TODAY/S TSRA CROP WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRI PM...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
NM AND AREAS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS
FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. STILL A LOW GRADE MONSOON
FCST WITH QUIET VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. MOST CONFIDENT OF
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT KFMN AFTER 19Z FRI WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KGUP. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT REMAINING
TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WOULD FAVOR
KLVS IF STORMS FIRE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...650 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
DECREASED POPS AND SKYCOVER IN MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO A STRONG UPPER
HIGH FROM THE NE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.  44

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 250531 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1131 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNEVENTFUL WX REMAINDER OF TNGT THRU FRI AM.  JUST PATCHY VFR
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND
LINGERING NEAR THE NM/CO LINE. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE
THAT EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN TODAY/S TSRA CROP WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRI PM...THOUGH LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF
NM AND AREAS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER PROSPECTS
FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA LATTER HALF OF PERIOD. STILL A LOW GRADE MONSOON
FCST WITH QUIET VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE. MOST CONFIDENT OF
SHRA/TSRA IMPACTS AT KFMN AFTER 19Z FRI WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
AT KGUP. LITTLE OR NO CHANCE OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT REMAINING
TERMINAL SITES...THOUGH STEERING FLOW CONSIDERATIONS WOULD FAVOR
KLVS IF STORMS FIRE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...650 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
DECREASED POPS AND SKYCOVER IN MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO A STRONG UPPER
HIGH FROM THE NE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.  44

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 250050 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
650 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
DECREASED POPS AND SKYCOVER IN MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO A STRONG UPPER
HIGH FROM THE NE WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...545 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.UPDATE...
THIS EVENING/S TSRA COVERAGE AMONG THE LOWEST OF THE MONSOON
SEASON THUS FAR. THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 05Z-06Z
LIMITED TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORM MOTIONS TOWARD THE NE AT
AROUND 10 KTS IN THE FOUR CORNERS...AND GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST
OVER THE SC MOUNTAINS. WILL INCLUDE BRIEF TEMP AT KFMN FOR EARLY
TO MID EVENING...WITH VC PLACEHOLDER AT KGUP. NO MENTION OF TSRA
AT OTHER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. OUTSIDE THE VERY LIMITED TSRA
ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT ELONGATED E-W OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT
TSRA ACTIVITY FRIDAY PM BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD TREND UPWARD
FOR THE NW/NC MOUNTAINS FRIDAY PM. KJ

&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DIRECT IMPACTS OF SH/TS ARE MOST LIKELY AT FMN WHERE
MONSOON PLUME WOULD BE. A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT GUP AND LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30KT AND EVEN HIGHER BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH DUE TO
TS/SH. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS THE FAR NW.
LESSENING ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
IMPACTS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MONSOON PLUME
PRESENCE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242345 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THIS EVENING/S TSRA COVERAGE AMONG THE LOWEST OF THE MONSOON
SEASON THUS FAR. THE FOCUS FOR A FEW SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 05Z-06Z
LIMITED TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. STORM
MOTIONS TOWARD THE NE AT AROUND 10 KTS IN THE FOUR CORNERS...AND
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE SC MOUNTAINS. WILL INCLUDE
BRIEF TEMP AT KFMN FOR EARLY TO MID EVENING...WITH VC PLACEHOLDER
AT KGUP. NO MENTION OF TSRA AT OTHER TAF SITES THIS PERIOD. OUTSIDE
THE VERY LIMITED TSRA ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ELONGATED E-W OVER THE STATE
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT TSRA ACTIVITY FRIDAY PM BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE SHOULD TREND UPWARD FOR THE NW/NC MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. KJ

&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DIRECT IMPACTS OF SH/TS ARE MOST LIKELY AT FMN WHERE
MONSOON PLUME WOULD BE. A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT GUP AND LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30KT AND EVEN HIGHER BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH DUE TO
TS/SH. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS THE FAR NW.
LESSENING ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
IMPACTS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MONSOON PLUME
PRESENCE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND LOOKS TO STAY
CENTERED OVER OR VERY VERY NEAR THE STATE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THIS NEXT WORK
WEEK. RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WITH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT FARING TOO
WELL AS FAR AS RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NOW. SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO REACH A MINIMUM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EVEN THE WEST AND NORTH...BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. THEREAFTER COVERAGE INCREMENTALLY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND TO SOME DEGREE WEST...THOUGH NOT MUCH CENTRAL SECTIONS
UNTIL AT THE EARLIEST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE THEREAFTER WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR TWO COMING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DIRECT IMPACTS OF SH/TS ARE MOST LIKELY AT FMN WHERE
MONSOON PLUME WOULD BE. A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT GUP AND LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30KT AND EVEN HIGHER BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH DUE TO
TS/SH. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS THE FAR NW.
LESSENING ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
IMPACTS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MONSOON PLUME
PRESENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  94  64  95 /  30  20  20  10
DULCE...........................  53  85  52  88 /  30  30  30  20
CUBA............................  57  88  57  91 /  10  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  57  90  58  92 /  20  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  55  85  56  87 /  10  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  57  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  58  88  58  89 /   5   5   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  94  62  95 /   0   0   0  20
CHAMA...........................  48  81  48  84 /  40  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  87  60  88 /   5  20  10  20
PECOS...........................  57  87  58  87 /   5  20  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  84  53  83 /  20  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  46  74  46  76 /  20  40  40  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  79  44  81 /  10  40  30  50
TAOS............................  49  88  52  89 /  10  30  30  20
MORA............................  54  85  54  87 /  10  30  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  59  91  59  92 /   5  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  60  88  62  90 /   5  20   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  91  61  93 /   5  20   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  93  68  94 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  95  71  96 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  97  65  98 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  97  68  98 /   5   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  97  65  98 /   5   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  67  95  69  98 /   5   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  99  69 101 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  88  60  91 /   5   5   0  20
TIJERAS.........................  61  92  62  93 /   5   5   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  94  58  95 /   5   5   0  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  89  61  92 /   5   5   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  90  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  91  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  56  86  56  87 /   5   5   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  58  89  58  90 /  10  30  30  40
RATON...........................  58  94  58  94 /  10  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  60  94  59  94 /  10  30  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  91  58  91 /   5  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  66  99  67  99 /   0  20  20  10
ROY.............................  63  94  64  94 /   0  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  69 100  69 101 /   0   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  66  98  67  99 /   0   5   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  70 103  70 102 /   0   5   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  66  97  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
PORTALES........................  68  99  68 102 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  99  68 101 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  69 100  69 103 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  65  93  65  96 /   0   0   0   5
ELK.............................  61  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO AND LOOKS TO STAY
CENTERED OVER OR VERY VERY NEAR THE STATE RIGHT ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PERHAPS EVEN THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THIS NEXT WORK
WEEK. RESULT WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE WITH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA NOT FARING TOO
WELL AS FAR AS RAINFALL...AT LEAST INTO SUNDAY NOW. SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE LIKELY TO REACH A MINIMUM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EVEN THE WEST AND NORTH...BETWEEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY. THEREAFTER COVERAGE INCREMENTALLY INCREASES...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND TO SOME DEGREE WEST...THOUGH NOT MUCH CENTRAL SECTIONS
UNTIL AT THE EARLIEST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE THEREAFTER WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR TWO COMING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH ALOFT NOW CENTERED OVER NM AND LOOKS TO STAY OVER OR EXTREMELY
CLOSE TO THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ALSO ITS
AXIS WILL STRETCH MORE FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRI WHICH WILL LIMIT
VERY MUCH MOISTURE FROM SEEPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH.
STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME GENERALLY WEST TO EAST OVER THE NORTH
QUARTER OR PERHAPS THIRD OF THE STATE ALLOWING AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTN AS SOUTHERN
EDGE OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOON PLUME SKIRTS THE NORTH.
EXPECTING NO OR JUST A VERY FEW STORMS ELSEWHERE. HAD TO BACK OFF
AND SHRINK BACK POPS ADDITIONAL TO SOME DEGREE FOR TONIGHT INTO
SAT BASED BOTH ON HOW LITTLE ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED THROUGH 3 PM
IN THE STATE AND WHAT THE LATEST FCST MODEL RUNS ARE IMPLYING.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES AT LEAST ACROSS CENTRAL...
SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS FRI AND OR SAT WITH THIS REORIENTING OF
THE UPPER HIGH. IN FACT SAT WILL LIKELY FEATURE TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH
TEMPS OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE WITH
MOSTLY LOW TO MODERATE STORM CHANCES ACROSS GENERALLY THE NORTH
AND WEST...LESS SO ELSEWHERE. BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN A BACK DOOR
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SOME INROADS INTO NM WITH MORE FCST
MODELS THAN NOT MAKING THE CASE FOR DEEPER PENETRATION OF SAID
FRONT...OR A REINFORCEMENT...LATE SUN INTO MON. BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTIONAL
WIND SHEAR. KEPT POPS UP MOSTLY AS PREVIOUS TO REFLECT THIS...
MEANING A SIGNIFICANT IF NOT DRAMATIC INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE .

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY GOOD
POSSIBILITY LATER TUE OR TUE NIGHT PROVIDING ANOTHER INCENTIVE FOR
INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH REAL ESTATE IN THE STATE ANY OF THESE
FRONTS WILL BE ABLE TO MANAGE BUT AT LEAST 1 OR 2 SHOULD AT LEAST
BREACH THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...IF NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY INTO
WEST NM.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HUMIDITY VALUES
FELL TODAY DUE TO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. THE MAIN MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR
WEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND OVER THAT AREA ALTHOUGH THE FOOTPRINT WOULD BE
SMALL. LOWEST RH VALUES AREAWIDE WILL MOST LIKELY BE FRIDAY. A
LITTLE BIT OF SOME MOISTURE SEEPAGE SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER EARLY THIS EVENING. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT LOCALIZED. THE
AFFECTED AREA HAS ALSO RECEIVED SOME GREENUP DUE TO PREVIOUS WETTING
RAINS. LESS WIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO WEAKER LEE SIDE
TROUGHING. OUTFLOW WIND WOULD REMAIN THE BIGGEST CONCERN BUT SHORT
LIVED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A PROLIFIC MOISTURE PUSH SUNDAY VIA A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. COOLING FROM EAST TO WEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE  EARLIER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS...IF NOT BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOONS FOR A FEW DAYS. HUMIDITY VALUES AND CLOUD
COVER WOULD CERTAINLY INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD.  REINFORCING BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK. WETTING RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND FAVOR THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SECONDARY AREA COULD BE THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
BUT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME ENDS UP. THE UPPER
HIGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD NEXT WEEK BUT
WOULD BE GRADUAL. WHEN THIS OCCURS....EASTERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE FAVORED FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING
STORMS. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT
WEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DIRECT IMPACTS OF SH/TS ARE MOST LIKELY AT FMN WHERE
MONSOON PLUME WOULD BE. A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT GUP AND LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30KT AND EVEN HIGHER BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH DUE TO
TS/SH. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS THE FAR NW.
LESSENING ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
IMPACTS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MONSOON PLUME
PRESENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  94  64  95 /  30  20  20  10
DULCE...........................  53  85  52  88 /  30  30  30  20
CUBA............................  57  88  57  91 /  10  20  20  20
GALLUP..........................  57  90  58  92 /  20  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  55  85  56  87 /  10  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  57  91  57  91 /  10  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  58  88  58  89 /   5   5   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  94  62  95 /   0   0   0  20
CHAMA...........................  48  81  48  84 /  40  40  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  87  60  88 /   5  20  10  20
PECOS...........................  57  87  58  87 /   5  20  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  84  53  83 /  20  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  46  74  46  76 /  20  40  40  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  79  44  81 /  10  40  30  50
TAOS............................  49  88  52  89 /  10  30  30  20
MORA............................  54  85  54  87 /  10  30  20  30
ESPANOLA........................  59  91  59  92 /   5  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  60  88  62  90 /   5  20   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  91  61  93 /   5  20   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  93  68  94 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  95  71  96 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  97  65  98 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  97  68  98 /   5   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  97  65  98 /   5   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  67  95  69  98 /   5   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  99  69 101 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  88  60  91 /   5   5   0  20
TIJERAS.........................  61  92  62  93 /   5   5   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  94  58  95 /   5   5   0  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  89  61  92 /   5   5   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  90  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  91  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  56  86  56  87 /   5   5   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  58  89  58  90 /  10  30  30  40
RATON...........................  58  94  58  94 /  10  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  60  94  59  94 /  10  30  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  91  58  91 /   5  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  66  99  67  99 /   0  20  20  10
ROY.............................  63  94  64  94 /   0  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  69 100  69 101 /   0   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  66  98  67  99 /   0   5   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  70 103  70 102 /   0   5   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  66  97  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
PORTALES........................  68  99  68 102 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  99  68 101 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  69 100  69 103 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  65  93  65  96 /   0   0   0   5
ELK.............................  61  87  62  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 241749 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DIRECT IMPACTS OF SH/TS ARE MOST LIKELY AT FMN WHERE
MONSOON PLUME WOULD BE. A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT GUP AND LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30KT AND EVEN HIGHER BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH DUE TO
TS/SH. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS THE FAR NW.
LESSENING ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
IMPACTS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MONSOON PLUME
PRESENCE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 241749 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LESS STORM COVERAGE DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. DIRECT IMPACTS OF SH/TS ARE MOST LIKELY AT FMN WHERE
MONSOON PLUME WOULD BE. A GOOD CHANCE OF IMPACTS AT GUP AND LITTLE
TO NO CHANCE AT THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO
30KT AND EVEN HIGHER BIGGEST THREAT ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH DUE TO
TS/SH. PERHAPS SOME BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD ACROSS THE FAR NW.
LESSENING ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME
IMPACTS PAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST DUE TO MONSOON PLUME
PRESENCE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 241104
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
504 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH SURFACE
LEE TROUGH IN PLACE. MOISTURE PLUME TO BE CLOSEST TO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED AFT 18Z. EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NM SHOULD BE MORE STABLE AND MAINLY STORM FREE.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WITH STORMS
PRODUCING SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN RA AND MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 241104
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
504 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH SURFACE
LEE TROUGH IN PLACE. MOISTURE PLUME TO BE CLOSEST TO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED AFT 18Z. EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST NM SHOULD BE MORE STABLE AND MAINLY STORM FREE.
STORM MOTION SHOULD BE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WITH STORMS
PRODUCING SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT...BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
IN RA AND MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 240931
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -SHRA OR -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MORE
DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW NM AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS STORM
MOTION WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING SOUTH. BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  64  94  64 /  40  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  85  53  85  52 /  40  30  50  40
CUBA............................  87  57  88  56 /  30  20  40  30
GALLUP..........................  89  60  91  60 /  20  30  20  30
EL MORRO........................  84  57  85  56 /  20  20  20  30
GRANTS..........................  88  58  90  58 /  20  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  86  58  87  58 /  10  10  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  92  60  93  63 /   5   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  82  47  81  48 /  50  50  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  60  86  59 /  20  10  30  30
PECOS...........................  83  57  86  58 /  10   5  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  52  82  52 /  30  20  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  73  45  72  45 /  40  20  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  44  77  43 /  30  10  50  40
TAOS............................  85  52  86  52 /  20  10  40  40
MORA............................  85  54  85  54 /  20   5  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  89  59  91  59 /  10   5  30  20
SANTA FE........................  86  61  88  61 /  10   5  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  60  91  60 /   5   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  67  93  67 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  70  95  70 /   5   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  64  97  65 /   5   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  66  97  67 /   5   5   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  95  65  97  65 /   5   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  95  68  96  69 /   5   5   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  96  69  99  69 /   5   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  87  59  88  60 /   5   5  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  89  61  92  62 /   5   5  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  57  94  58 /   5  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  60  89  61 /   5   5  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  64  91  64 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  84  54  86  55 /  10  10  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  90  57  88  57 /  20  10  40  40
RATON...........................  94  58  92  58 /  20  10  40  40
SPRINGER........................  94  60  94  59 /  10   5  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  58  90  58 /  10   0  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  97  66  99  67 /   5   0  20  20
ROY.............................  91  64  94  64 /   5   0  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  97  69 100  70 /   5   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  66  98  67 /   5   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  70 103  70 /   5   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  93  66  97  66 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  95  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  99  68 /   5   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  97  69 100  69 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  91  65  93  65 /   5   0   5   5
ELK.............................  85  61  87  62 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 240931
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY WHILE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND BACK INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL
STEER THE BEST PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO TODAY WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESIDE. BY FRIDAY MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO NORTH
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE WITH MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO REMAINING DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM TO HOT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT A FRONT WILL THEN BACK INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MORE
ACTIVE STRETCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MINIMAL DEBRIS
LEFT FROM YESTERDAY`S SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY. THE HIGH IS ALREADY
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WITH LOWERING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE WARM TO HOT TODAY...BUT LIKELY JUST A
FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE MORE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE UP TO AN INCH AROUND THE
FOUR CORNERS LATER TODAY AND SATELLITE ALREADY REVEALS HEALTHY
PLUME OF UPSTREAM MOISTURE THAT WILL JUST BARELY STRETCH AND LAY
INTO NW NM. WITH THE RELOCATION OF THE HIGH...THE STEERING FLOW
WILL ALTER...GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST OVER
THIS NW CORNER OF THE STATE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT OVER THIS SECTOR OF THE FORECAST AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST UNDER LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH.

BY FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER NM WITH AN AXIS
ELONGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST TO EAST MOVING
STORMS TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NM BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRY CONDITIONS OR JUST ISOLATED STORMS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE A DEGREE OR TWO IN MANY LOCALES FRIDAY...AND BY SATURDAY
THE HIGH WILL NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH...IF AT ALL.

THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND THIS COULD
MAKE SATURDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR SEVERAL ZONES OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TRIPLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EASTERN
TIER OF THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR RECYCLING ANYWHERE
FROM THE GILA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. THE BIG FEATURE OF INTEREST LATE SATURDAY WILL BE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE BOUNDARY
IS PROGGED TO ENTER UNION AND EASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY DRAGGING A SWATH OF STORMS INTO THE
STATE AS IT ADVECTS MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...CAPE...AND DIRECTION
WIND SHEAR. POPS TREND UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS...PARTICULARLY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT ADVANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.

A SECOND PUSH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
FOCUS FOR INCREASED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH UPSLOPE FRONTAL WINDS HITTING THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...AND A CONTINUED FLUX OF HEALTHIER BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE. SUNDAY`S BOUNDARY PUSH WILL LIKELY EVEN SPILL BEYOND THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...DRAGGING POTENTIAL FOR GAP WINDS AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION FARTHER WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH
MAKES A SLUGGISH RETREAT WESTWARD INTO AZ AND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH OVERTAKES THE EASTERN CONUS. REPEATED BACK DOOR FRONTS
WOULD INVADE NM WITH ACTIVE DAYS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH TO BE CENTERED MORE OR LESS SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHUNTS THE PLUME OF
MONSOON MOISTURE INTO ARIZONA...UTAH AND COLORADO...AS WELL AS
STABILIZES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THEREFORE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...WHILE THE SOUTHEAST
SHOULD BE DRY.

STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTED GENERALLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN SLOW ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. DEWPOINTS TEND TO DRY OUT BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE MIN HUMIDITIES DON/T BOTTOM
OUT LESS THAN 15 PERCENT MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE THE FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
CREATE MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY WILL REFRESH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAINLY IN THE EAST...ALTHOUGH AN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV IS POSSIBLE
AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVERALL ARE FAVORED. AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE THE RESULT...WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS FEATURED FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...POTENTIALLY
SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS RAMPING
UP OVER THE CONTDVD INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FACTOR ASSISTING AN
INCREASE WOULD BE THE PLUME BECOMING WRAPPED UP AROUND THE HIGH
PRESSURE CIRCULATION BY THIS TIME.

FOR NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
INTO NEW MEXICO...PLACING THE STATE UNDER A FAMILIAR PATTERN...ONE
WE ALL KNOW AND LOVE...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE DOMINATED THIS SUMMER
STORM SEASON SO FAR. ANOTHER FRONT COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST AROUND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH MAX TEMPERATURES COOLING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -SHRA OR -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MORE
DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW NM AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS STORM
MOTION WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING SOUTH. BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  64  94  64 /  40  30  30  30
DULCE...........................  85  53  85  52 /  40  30  50  40
CUBA............................  87  57  88  56 /  30  20  40  30
GALLUP..........................  89  60  91  60 /  20  30  20  30
EL MORRO........................  84  57  85  56 /  20  20  20  30
GRANTS..........................  88  58  90  58 /  20  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  86  58  87  58 /  10  10  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  92  60  93  63 /   5   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  82  47  81  48 /  50  50  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  60  86  59 /  20  10  30  30
PECOS...........................  83  57  86  58 /  10   5  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  52  82  52 /  30  20  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  73  45  72  45 /  40  20  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  44  77  43 /  30  10  50  40
TAOS............................  85  52  86  52 /  20  10  40  40
MORA............................  85  54  85  54 /  20   5  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  89  59  91  59 /  10   5  30  20
SANTA FE........................  86  61  88  61 /  10   5  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  60  91  60 /   5   5  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  67  93  67 /   5   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  70  95  70 /   5   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  94  64  97  65 /   5   5   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  66  97  67 /   5   5   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  95  65  97  65 /   5   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  95  68  96  69 /   5   5   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  96  69  99  69 /   5   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  87  59  88  60 /   5   5  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  89  61  92  62 /   5   5  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  57  94  58 /   5  10  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  60  89  61 /   5   5  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  90  62 /   5   5   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  64  91  64 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  84  54  86  55 /  10  10  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  90  57  88  57 /  20  10  40  40
RATON...........................  94  58  92  58 /  20  10  40  40
SPRINGER........................  94  60  94  59 /  10   5  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  58  90  58 /  10   0  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  97  66  99  67 /   5   0  20  20
ROY.............................  91  64  94  64 /   5   0  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  97  69 100  70 /   5   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  66  98  67 /   5   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  70 103  70 /   5   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  93  66  97  66 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  95  68  99  68 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  99  68 /   5   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  97  69 100  69 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  91  65  93  65 /   5   0   5   5
ELK.............................  85  61  87  62 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 240524 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -SHRA OR -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MORE
DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW NM AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS STORM
MOTION WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING SOUTH. BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AT LEAST...PLACEMENT OF BEST SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS DRIVING STORMS TOWARD THE WEST ND
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE
SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NM EASTERN PLAINS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS WELL. THUS THE LATTER AREA IS STAYING RAIN FREE. THIS
SUBSIDENT AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL
DROP OFF IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW LITTLE OR NO STORMS THERE AND FEWER THAN TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WILL EASE INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY. A FRONT
WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ALSO SHIFTS MORE INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THIS
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENT AREA COMING INTO
EAST NM HAS SHUT DOWN STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND THAT SUPPRESSIVE
REGIME SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THU
WHILE REDUCING IT PERHAPS TO A DEGREE ACROSS W CENTRAL OR SW
SECTIONS. THE DRIER AND OR MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ENGULFING EVEN
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTED BY ALL THE FCST MODELS...SO POPS NEEDED
SOME SIGNIFICANT TRIMMING...MOST RADICALLY ACROSS THE SE TWO
THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING MAY INDUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. BUMPED UP
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO AZ...ALLOWING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE
HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND EARLY MON. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS MAY CAUSE THE
BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT
LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RECYCLE MODE IN TERMS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS SHRINKING WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS AND GRADUAL
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WETTER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST MODELING AND EXPECTED HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT CERTAINLY
NOT ROCK BOTTOM. LACK OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION MEANS
THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW RH READINGS. LOCALIZED STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SOME DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE.

STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT THE
UPPER HIGH FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND PROVIDE A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SANGRES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS OUTCOME BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 240524 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW -SHRA OR -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...BUT OTHERWISE A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS MORE
DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW NM AND WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS STORM
MOTION WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTING SOUTH. BRIEF HVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AT LEAST...PLACEMENT OF BEST SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS DRIVING STORMS TOWARD THE WEST ND
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE
SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NM EASTERN PLAINS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS WELL. THUS THE LATTER AREA IS STAYING RAIN FREE. THIS
SUBSIDENT AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL
DROP OFF IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW LITTLE OR NO STORMS THERE AND FEWER THAN TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WILL EASE INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY. A FRONT
WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ALSO SHIFTS MORE INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THIS
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENT AREA COMING INTO
EAST NM HAS SHUT DOWN STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND THAT SUPPRESSIVE
REGIME SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THU
WHILE REDUCING IT PERHAPS TO A DEGREE ACROSS W CENTRAL OR SW
SECTIONS. THE DRIER AND OR MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ENGULFING EVEN
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTED BY ALL THE FCST MODELS...SO POPS NEEDED
SOME SIGNIFICANT TRIMMING...MOST RADICALLY ACROSS THE SE TWO
THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING MAY INDUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. BUMPED UP
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO AZ...ALLOWING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE
HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND EARLY MON. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS MAY CAUSE THE
BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT
LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RECYCLE MODE IN TERMS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS SHRINKING WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS AND GRADUAL
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WETTER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST MODELING AND EXPECTED HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT CERTAINLY
NOT ROCK BOTTOM. LACK OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION MEANS
THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW RH READINGS. LOCALIZED STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SOME DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE.

STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT THE
UPPER HIGH FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND PROVIDE A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SANGRES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS OUTCOME BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 232351 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM. KGUP WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z. ASIDE FROM
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS MORE DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW AND NC NM. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH...STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST...RATHER THAN THE WEST LIKE IN RECENT DAYS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AT LEAST...PLACEMENT OF BEST SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS DRIVING STORMS TOWARD THE WEST ND
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE
SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NM EASTERN PLAINS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS WELL. THUS THE LATTER AREA IS STAYING RAIN FREE. THIS
SUBSIDENT AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL
DROP OFF IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW LITTLE OR NO STORMS THERE AND FEWER THAN TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WILL EASE INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY. A FRONT
WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ALSO SHIFTS MORE INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THIS
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENT AREA COMING INTO
EAST NM HAS SHUT DOWN STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND THAT SUPPRESSIVE
REGIME SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THU
WHILE REDUCING IT PERHAPS TO A DEGREE ACROSS W CENTRAL OR SW
SECTIONS. THE DRIER AND OR MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ENGULFING EVEN
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTED BY ALL THE FCST MODELS...SO POPS NEEDED
SOME SIGNIFICANT TRIMMING...MOST RADICALLY ACROSS THE SE TWO
THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING MAY INDUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. BUMPED UP
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO AZ...ALLOWING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE
HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND EARLY MON. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS MAY CAUSE THE
BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT
LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RECYCLE MODE IN TERMS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS SHRINKING WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS AND GRADUAL
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WETTER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST MODELING AND EXPECTED HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT CERTAINLY
NOT ROCK BOTTOM. LACK OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION MEANS
THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW RH READINGS. LOCALIZED STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SOME DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE.

STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT THE
UPPER HIGH FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND PROVIDE A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SANGRES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS OUTCOME BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 232351 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHRA AND TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NM. KGUP WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED BY
STORMS. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY 03Z. ASIDE FROM
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. LESS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AS MORE DRY AND STABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE STATE. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THURS AFTN WILL FAVOR NW AND NC NM. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTH...STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST...RATHER THAN THE WEST LIKE IN RECENT DAYS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AT LEAST...PLACEMENT OF BEST SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS DRIVING STORMS TOWARD THE WEST ND
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE
SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NM EASTERN PLAINS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS WELL. THUS THE LATTER AREA IS STAYING RAIN FREE. THIS
SUBSIDENT AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL
DROP OFF IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW LITTLE OR NO STORMS THERE AND FEWER THAN TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WILL EASE INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY. A FRONT
WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ALSO SHIFTS MORE INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THIS
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENT AREA COMING INTO
EAST NM HAS SHUT DOWN STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND THAT SUPPRESSIVE
REGIME SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THU
WHILE REDUCING IT PERHAPS TO A DEGREE ACROSS W CENTRAL OR SW
SECTIONS. THE DRIER AND OR MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ENGULFING EVEN
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTED BY ALL THE FCST MODELS...SO POPS NEEDED
SOME SIGNIFICANT TRIMMING...MOST RADICALLY ACROSS THE SE TWO
THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING MAY INDUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. BUMPED UP
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO AZ...ALLOWING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE
HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND EARLY MON. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS MAY CAUSE THE
BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT
LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RECYCLE MODE IN TERMS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS SHRINKING WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS AND GRADUAL
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WETTER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST MODELING AND EXPECTED HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE
SEASONABLE IF NOT A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT CERTAINLY
NOT ROCK BOTTOM. LACK OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION MEANS
THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW RH READINGS. LOCALIZED STRONG OUTFLOW WIND
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SOME DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BREEZES EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST
DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE.

STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT THE
UPPER HIGH FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND PROVIDE A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SANGRES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS OUTCOME BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 232140
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AT LEAST...PLACEMENT OF BEST SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS DRIVING STORMS TOWARD THE WEST ND
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE
SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NM EASTERN PLAINS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS WELL. THUS THE LATTER AREA IS STAYING RAIN FREE. THIS
SUBSIDENT AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL
DROP OFF IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW LITTLE OR NO STORMS THERE AND FEWER THAN TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WILL EASE INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY. A FRONT
WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ALSO SHIFTS MORE INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THIS
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENT AREA COMING INTO
EAST NM HAS SHUT DOWN STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND THAT SUPPRESSIVE
REGIME SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THU
WHILE REDUCING IT PERHAPS TO A DEGREE ACROSS W CENTRAL OR SW
SECTIONS. THE DRIER AND OR MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ENGULFING EVEN
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTED BY ALL THE FCST MODELS...SO POPS NEEDED
SOME SIGNIFICANT TRIMMING...MOST RADICALLY ACROSS THE SE TWO
THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING MAY INDUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. BUMPED UP
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO AZ...ALLOWING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE
HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND EARLY MON. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS MAY CAUSE THE
BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT
LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RECYCLE MODE IN TERMS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS SHRINKING WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS AND GRADUAL
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WETTER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST MODELING AND EXPECTED HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE IF NOT
A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT CERTAINLY NOT ROCK BOTTOM. LACK
OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION MEANS THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW
RH READINGS. LOCALIZED STRONG OUTFLOW WIND WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BREEZES
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LEE SIDE
TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE.

STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT THE
UPPER HIGH FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND PROVIDE A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SANGRES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS OUTCOME BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CELL DVLPMENT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT ABQ/SAF/AEG BUT SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THUS SHORT
DURATION. GUP HAS THE STRONGEST TS IMPACT POTENTIAL WITH LONGER
DURATION. FMN COULD SEE SOME VCSH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO TS WOULD BE MOST POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  91  63  93 /  40  40  20  20
DULCE...........................  54  86  53  88 /  40  40  30  30
CUBA............................  56  86  57  88 /  30  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  59  87  59  90 /  40  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  56  84  56  85 /  50  20  20  10
GRANTS..........................  57  88  58  89 /  40  20  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  57  86  58  87 /  40  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  60  92  61  93 /  50   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  47  81  49  82 /  40  50  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  85  60  86 /  20  20  10  20
PECOS...........................  57  84  58  85 /  20  10   5  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  82  53  82 /  20  30  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  43  73  45  73 /  20  40  30  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  44  80 /  20  30  20  40
TAOS............................  50  85  51  87 /  20  20  10  30
MORA............................  52  85  54  85 /  20  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  59  89  60  91 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  59  87  60  89 /  20  10   0  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  90  60  92 /  20   0   0  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  91  67  93 /  20   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  93  69  95 /  20   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  95  65  97 /  20   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  95  67  96 /  20   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  95  65  97 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  67  95  68  96 /  20   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  68  96  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  89  61  89 /  20   5   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  61  90  62  91 /  20   5   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  92  58  92 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  88  60  89 /  10   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  88  62  91 /  20   5   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  89  65  91 /  20  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  56  84  59  87 /  20  10   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  56  91  58  89 /   5  20  10  30
RATON...........................  57  93  58  93 /   5  20   5  30
SPRINGER........................  59  94  60  94 /   5  10   0  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  89  58  90 /  10  10   0  30
CLAYTON.........................  65  98  67 100 /   5   0   5  20
ROY.............................  62  93  64  95 /   5   5   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  69  98  69 101 /   5   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  66  96  67  99 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  68 100  70 103 /   5   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  66  95  66  99 /   5   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  67  97  69 100 /   5   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  96  69 100 /   5   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  70  98  69 101 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  65  91  65  95 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  61  86  62  90 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 232140
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AT LEAST...PLACEMENT OF BEST SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENTLY HIGH PRESSURE IS QUITE STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS DRIVING STORMS TOWARD THE WEST ND
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IT IS ALSO PUSHING A MORE
SUBSIDENT AREA ACROSS TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NM EASTERN PLAINS SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS WELL. THUS THE LATTER AREA IS STAYING RAIN FREE. THIS
SUBSIDENT AREA WILL LIKELY CAUSE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN NORMAL
DROP OFF IN STORM ACTIVITY FOR MOST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
ALLOW LITTLE OR NO STORMS THERE AND FEWER THAN TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WEST. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL WILL EASE INTO NORTHWEST NEW
MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY. A FRONT
WILL THEN BACK INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO BETWEEN SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY...PERHAPS FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCEMENT BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST SECTION OF THE STATE SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS OVER A LARGER AREA OF THE STATE BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH ALSO SHIFTS MORE INTO ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO. THIS
LOCATION WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS FROM EAST TO WEST OVER
MOST OF THE FCST AREA INTO THE NIGHT. SUBSIDENT AREA COMING INTO
EAST NM HAS SHUT DOWN STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE AND THAT SUPPRESSIVE
REGIME SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THU
WHILE REDUCING IT PERHAPS TO A DEGREE ACROSS W CENTRAL OR SW
SECTIONS. THE DRIER AND OR MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ENGULFING EVEN
LARGER PORTION OF THE STATE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND PERHAPS
INTO SATURDAY...SUPPORTED BY ALL THE FCST MODELS...SO POPS NEEDED
SOME SIGNIFICANT TRIMMING...MOST RADICALLY ACROSS THE SE TWO
THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE. SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING MAY INDUCE SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. BUMPED UP
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES MAINLY FRI AND SAT ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
HALF OF FCST AREA.

LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASE
IN STORM COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE EASES INTO AZ...ALLOWING AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR FRONTS TO SWEEP ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE
HALF OR THREE QUARTERS OF THE STATE. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE BETWEEN LATE SAT AND EARLY MON. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS MAY CAUSE THE
BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT AN INCREASE IN POPS AND A
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AT
LEAST THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER RECYCLE MODE IN TERMS OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS SHRINKING WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS AND GRADUAL
DRYING NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WETTER STORMS SHOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WEST/NORTHWEST BASED ON LATEST MODELING AND EXPECTED HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE PLUME LOCATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
BOTH DAY AND NIGHTTIME. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO BE SEASONABLE IF NOT
A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT CERTAINLY NOT ROCK BOTTOM. LACK
OF A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OR INTRUSION MEANS THE ABSENCE OF VERY LOW
RH READINGS. LOCALIZED STRONG OUTFLOW WIND WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO SOME DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE. BREEZES
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LEE SIDE
TROUGHING EXPECTED THERE.

STILL LOOKING AT A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO UNDERCUT THE
UPPER HIGH FROM THE EAST ON SUNDAY. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED AND PROVIDE A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS UPTICK IN STORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE EAST AND SANGRES SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. HUMIDITY SHOULD ALSO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE UPPER HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT FURTHER WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD FOR THIS OUTCOME BASED ON LATEST MODEL
TRENDS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CELL DVLPMENT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT ABQ/SAF/AEG BUT SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THUS SHORT
DURATION. GUP HAS THE STRONGEST TS IMPACT POTENTIAL WITH LONGER
DURATION. FMN COULD SEE SOME VCSH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO TS WOULD BE MOST POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  91  63  93 /  40  40  20  20
DULCE...........................  54  86  53  88 /  40  40  30  30
CUBA............................  56  86  57  88 /  30  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  59  87  59  90 /  40  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  56  84  56  85 /  50  20  20  10
GRANTS..........................  57  88  58  89 /  40  20  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  57  86  58  87 /  40  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  60  92  61  93 /  50   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  47  81  49  82 /  40  50  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  85  60  86 /  20  20  10  20
PECOS...........................  57  84  58  85 /  20  10   5  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  82  53  82 /  20  30  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  43  73  45  73 /  20  40  30  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  44  80 /  20  30  20  40
TAOS............................  50  85  51  87 /  20  20  10  30
MORA............................  52  85  54  85 /  20  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  59  89  60  91 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  59  87  60  89 /  20  10   0  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  90  60  92 /  20   0   0  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  91  67  93 /  20   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  93  69  95 /  20   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  95  65  97 /  20   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  95  67  96 /  20   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  95  65  97 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  67  95  68  96 /  20   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  68  96  70  99 /  20   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  89  61  89 /  20   5   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  61  90  62  91 /  20   5   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  92  58  92 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  88  60  89 /  10   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  88  62  91 /  20   5   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  89  65  91 /  20  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  56  84  59  87 /  20  10   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  56  91  58  89 /   5  20  10  30
RATON...........................  57  93  58  93 /   5  20   5  30
SPRINGER........................  59  94  60  94 /   5  10   0  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  89  58  90 /  10  10   0  30
CLAYTON.........................  65  98  67 100 /   5   0   5  20
ROY.............................  62  93  64  95 /   5   5   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  69  98  69 101 /   5   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  66  96  67  99 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  68 100  70 103 /   5   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  66  95  66  99 /   5   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  67  97  69 100 /   5   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  96  69 100 /   5   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  70  98  69 101 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  65  91  65  95 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  61  86  62  90 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 231747 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CELL DVLPMENT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT ABQ/SAF/AEG BUT SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THUS SHORT
DURATION. GUP HAS THE STRONGEST TS IMPACT POTENTIAL WITH LONGER
DURATION. FMN COULD SEE SOME VCSH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO TS WOULD BE MOST POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DEFINED BY THE PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TODAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S AND 90S IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THUS...STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO WITH STOUT
HEIGHTS OF 600 DAM AT H5. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BEYOND THE AZ BORDER TODAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OVER
MOST OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA...KEEPING BETTER MOISTURE INTACT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY IN
THE WEST...WHERE LIKELY CATEGORY WAS INTRODUCED FOR HIGH TERRAIN
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY SEEMED 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL...AND SO FORECAST WAS
BUILT WITH NUMBERS ABOVE GUIDANCE. WOULD SEE NO REASON WHY MOST
AREAS WOULD NOT MEET OR EXCEED YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUDS IN MANY LOCALES.

INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BACK INTO NM WITH
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY LOWERING BY 3-5 DAM. THE REMNANT SPOKE OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THE STEERING FLOW SEEMS LIKE IT
WOULD PICK UP GIVEN INCREASED H5-H7 LAYER FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THE
EAST WOULD BE LEFT MOSTLY DRY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING INDUCING
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ELONGATE SLIGHTLY ON A WEST-EAST AXIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING AND STORM PRODUCTION WOULD STEER TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WHERE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPLOIT
THIS FIRST. REMAINING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WOULD HAVE MORE
DIFFICULTY PRODUCING STORMS...THUS COVERAGE HAS BEEN KEPT AS
ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM TO HOT
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORMS AS A SERIES OF BACK
DOOR FRONTS ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK INITIAL BOUNDARY
WILL TRY TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS A
MORE SUCCESSFUL SECOND PUSH WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECHARGE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHILE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW MEETS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ANOTHER TERTIARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE
LATE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEFINITION BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
IS A BIT MUDDLED AND AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT FOR NOW AN INCREASE IN POPS
AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN THE GREATER NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STATE SEEMS SUFFICIENT. THEREAFTER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY BE SHUNTED FARTHER WEST...LEAVING A TASTE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
WORK INTO EASTERN ZONES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP ANOTHER ROUND
OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE VALUES IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DRY AIR PRESENTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...HOWEVER MODELS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRY PUSH. NAM IS DRIEST
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WITH GFS AND EC
MODELS MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS A BIT COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE EAST WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. RH VALUES SHOW
MODEST DECREASES AND THE EAST REMAINS DRY WHILE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT
IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS BUT SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME POOR TO FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 OVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 231747 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CELL DVLPMENT WILL INITIALLY IMPACT ABQ/SAF/AEG BUT SHOULD MOVE
OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES THUS SHORT
DURATION. GUP HAS THE STRONGEST TS IMPACT POTENTIAL WITH LONGER
DURATION. FMN COULD SEE SOME VCSH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. MTN TOP OBSCD DUE TO TS WOULD BE MOST POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DEFINED BY THE PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TODAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S AND 90S IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THUS...STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO WITH STOUT
HEIGHTS OF 600 DAM AT H5. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BEYOND THE AZ BORDER TODAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OVER
MOST OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA...KEEPING BETTER MOISTURE INTACT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY IN
THE WEST...WHERE LIKELY CATEGORY WAS INTRODUCED FOR HIGH TERRAIN
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY SEEMED 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL...AND SO FORECAST WAS
BUILT WITH NUMBERS ABOVE GUIDANCE. WOULD SEE NO REASON WHY MOST
AREAS WOULD NOT MEET OR EXCEED YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUDS IN MANY LOCALES.

INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BACK INTO NM WITH
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY LOWERING BY 3-5 DAM. THE REMNANT SPOKE OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THE STEERING FLOW SEEMS LIKE IT
WOULD PICK UP GIVEN INCREASED H5-H7 LAYER FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THE
EAST WOULD BE LEFT MOSTLY DRY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING INDUCING
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ELONGATE SLIGHTLY ON A WEST-EAST AXIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING AND STORM PRODUCTION WOULD STEER TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WHERE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPLOIT
THIS FIRST. REMAINING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WOULD HAVE MORE
DIFFICULTY PRODUCING STORMS...THUS COVERAGE HAS BEEN KEPT AS
ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM TO HOT
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORMS AS A SERIES OF BACK
DOOR FRONTS ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK INITIAL BOUNDARY
WILL TRY TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS A
MORE SUCCESSFUL SECOND PUSH WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECHARGE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHILE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW MEETS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ANOTHER TERTIARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE
LATE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEFINITION BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
IS A BIT MUDDLED AND AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT FOR NOW AN INCREASE IN POPS
AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN THE GREATER NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STATE SEEMS SUFFICIENT. THEREAFTER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY BE SHUNTED FARTHER WEST...LEAVING A TASTE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
WORK INTO EASTERN ZONES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP ANOTHER ROUND
OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE VALUES IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DRY AIR PRESENTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...HOWEVER MODELS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRY PUSH. NAM IS DRIEST
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WITH GFS AND EC
MODELS MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS A BIT COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE EAST WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. RH VALUES SHOW
MODEST DECREASES AND THE EAST REMAINS DRY WHILE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT
IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS BUT SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME POOR TO FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 OVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 230950
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DEFINED BY THE PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TODAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S AND 90S IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THUS...STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO WITH STOUT
HEIGHTS OF 600 DAM AT H5. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BEYOND THE AZ BORDER TODAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OVER
MOST OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA...KEEPING BETTER MOISTURE INTACT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY IN
THE WEST...WHERE LIKELY CATEGORY WAS INTRODUCED FOR HIGH TERRAIN
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY SEEMED 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL...AND SO FORECAST WAS
BUILT WITH NUMBERS ABOVE GUIDANCE. WOULD SEE NO REASON WHY MOST
AREAS WOULD NOT MEET OR EXCEED YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUDS IN MANY LOCALES.

INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BACK INTO NM WITH
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY LOWERING BY 3-5 DAM. THE REMNANT SPOKE OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THE STEERING FLOW SEEMS LIKE IT
WOULD PICK UP GIVEN INCREASED H5-H7 LAYER FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THE
EAST WOULD BE LEFT MOSTLY DRY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING INDUCING
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ELONGATE SLIGHTLY ON A WEST-EAST AXIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING AND STORM PRODUCTION WOULD STEER TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WHERE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPLOIT
THIS FIRST. REMAINING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WOULD HAVE MORE
DIFFICULTY PRODUCING STORMS...THUS COVERAGE HAS BEEN KEPT AS
ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM TO HOT
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORMS AS A SERIES OF BACK
DOOR FRONTS ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK INITIAL BOUNDARY
WILL TRY TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS A
MORE SUCCESSFUL SECOND PUSH WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECHARGE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHILE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW MEETS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ANOTHER TERTIARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE
LATE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEFINITION BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
IS A BIT MUDDLED AND AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT FOR NOW AN INCREASE IN POPS
AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN THE GREATER NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STATE SEEMS SUFFICIENT. THEREAFTER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY BE SHUNTED FARTHER WEST...LEAVING A TASTE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
WORK INTO EASTERN ZONES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP ANOTHER ROUND
OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE VALUES IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DRY AIR PRESENTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...HOWEVER MODELS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRY PUSH. NAM IS DRIEST
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WITH GFS AND EC
MODELS MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS A BIT COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE EAST WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. RH VALUES SHOW
MODEST DECREASES AND THE EAST REMAINS DRY WHILE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT
IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS BUT SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME POOR TO FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 OVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR NW NM THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFMN... BUT KFMN MAY SEE SOME IMPACTS BEFORE
10Z. ISOLD -TSRA IS ALSO MOVG SLOWLY WEST NEAR KSRR. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ON WED AFTN. STORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN NM...AND WILL MOVE WEST. ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. IF IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AREAS FROM KSAF AND KABQ MAY SEE SOME TS AS STORMS MOVE
WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  99  67  91  64 /  30  40  40  40
DULCE...........................  92  55  86  53 /  20  40  40  40
CUBA............................  89  57  86  57 /  30  20  40  50
GALLUP..........................  92  61  88  59 /  50  40  30  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  84  56 /  50  40  30  30
GRANTS..........................  89  58  88  58 /  30  30  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  87  58  86  58 /  60  30  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  91  61  92  61 /  40  30  10  10
CHAMA...........................  88  47  81  48 /  40  40  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  86  60  85  60 /  30  20  30  30
PECOS...........................  83  57  84  58 /  30  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  85  53  82  52 /  20  20  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  77  41  73  43 /  30  20  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  81  42  78  44 /  30  20  40  40
TAOS............................  90  54  85  53 /  20  20  30  30
MORA............................  83  53  84  54 /  30  20  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  93  60  89  60 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  91  60  87  60 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  95  60  90  60 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  95  66  91  66 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  97  69  93  69 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  99  64  95  64 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  98  66  95  66 /  20  20   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  95  65  95  65 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  95  68  95  68 /  20  20   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  96  69  96  70 /  20  20   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  58  89  60 /  30  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  92  61  90  61 /  30  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  93  58  92  58 /  20  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  60  87  60 /  10  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  62  88  62 /  20  20  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  93  64  89  64 /  20  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  84  56  84  59 /  30  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  91  55  88  57 /   5   5  20  20
RATON...........................  95  57  91  59 /  10   5  20  20
SPRINGER........................  94  59  93  60 /  10   5  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  57  87  58 /  20  10  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  96  65  97  66 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  91  63  92  64 /   5   5  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  97  69  98  69 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  96  66  96  66 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69 101  70 /   5   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  66  95  66 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  96  68  97  68 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  96  69  96  69 /   5   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  99  70  98  70 /   5   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  91  65  91  65 /  10   5  10   0
ELK.............................  86  61  86  62 /  30  10  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 230950
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
DEFINED BY THE PLACEMENT AND THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
TODAY THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG
OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 80S AND 90S IN MOST OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WHILE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS PUSHED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THUS...STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO. THE PLUME OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE FRIDAY. A FRONT WILL THEN BACK
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY...LEADING TO AN UPTICK IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO WITH STOUT
HEIGHTS OF 600 DAM AT H5. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS
FROM EAST TO WEST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. A REMNANT
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH BEYOND THE AZ BORDER TODAY
WITH SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OVER
MOST OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA...KEEPING BETTER MOISTURE INTACT
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. THUS...POPS WILL BE HIGHEST TODAY IN
THE WEST...WHERE LIKELY CATEGORY WAS INTRODUCED FOR HIGH TERRAIN
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
FOR TODAY SEEMED 2 TO 4 DEGREES TOO COOL...AND SO FORECAST WAS
BUILT WITH NUMBERS ABOVE GUIDANCE. WOULD SEE NO REASON WHY MOST
AREAS WOULD NOT MEET OR EXCEED YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURES GIVEN
HIGHER PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND LESS CLOUDS IN MANY LOCALES.

INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL SAG SOUTHWARD BACK INTO NM WITH
HEIGHTS ACTUALLY LOWERING BY 3-5 DAM. THE REMNANT SPOKE OF MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TO
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY...AND THE STEERING FLOW SEEMS LIKE IT
WOULD PICK UP GIVEN INCREASED H5-H7 LAYER FLOW OF 10-15 KT. THE
EAST WOULD BE LEFT MOSTLY DRY WITH LEE SIDE TROUGHING INDUCING
SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS.

BY FRIDAY THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO ELONGATE SLIGHTLY ON A WEST-EAST AXIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR RECYCLING AND STORM PRODUCTION WOULD STEER TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES WHERE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WOULD EXPLOIT
THIS FIRST. REMAINING AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WOULD HAVE MORE
DIFFICULTY PRODUCING STORMS...THUS COVERAGE HAS BEEN KEPT AS
ISOLATED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN WARM TO HOT
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEEKEND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN STORMS AS A SERIES OF BACK
DOOR FRONTS ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK INITIAL BOUNDARY
WILL TRY TO INVADE THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS A
MORE SUCCESSFUL SECOND PUSH WILL ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RECHARGE THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE WHILE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW MEETS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. ANOTHER TERTIARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO ARRIVE
LATE ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE DEFINITION BETWEEN THESE BOUNDARIES
IS A BIT MUDDLED AND AMBIGUOUS AT THIS POINT. ANY CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
THE BOUNDARIES TO SURGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN WHAT THE
MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING...BUT FOR NOW AN INCREASE IN POPS
AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES IN THE GREATER NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE STATE SEEMS SUFFICIENT. THEREAFTER THE CENTER OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT MAY BE SHUNTED FARTHER WEST...LEAVING A TASTE
OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A
DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD TROUGH IS CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER OR NEAR NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH WILL
WORK INTO EASTERN ZONES...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAIN
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES FROM
CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS PATTERN WILL SET UP ANOTHER ROUND
OF BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE VALUES IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DRY AIR PRESENTLY WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH...HOWEVER MODELS
ARE AT ODDS AS TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE DRY PUSH. NAM IS DRIEST
RESTRICTING CONVECTION TO THE EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WITH GFS AND EC
MODELS MAINTAINING SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND GRIDS REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTION.

ON THURSDAY...THE UPPER HIGH FLATTENS A BIT COURTESY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. LEE TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE EAST WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. RH VALUES SHOW
MODEST DECREASES AND THE EAST REMAINS DRY WHILE BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN CONTINUE OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT
IT DOESNT LOOK TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS BUT SHOULD PROVIDE
SUPPORT FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST. A STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE EAST ON SUNDAY
WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT HELPING TO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS TO THE WEST BY MONDAY. EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING A GENERAL UPTICK IN
CONVECTION AND WETTING RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SOME POOR TO FAIR VALUES ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY
EXPANDING TO INCLUDE SOME OF THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 OVER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR NW NM THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFMN... BUT KFMN MAY SEE SOME IMPACTS BEFORE
10Z. ISOLD -TSRA IS ALSO MOVG SLOWLY WEST NEAR KSRR. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ON WED AFTN. STORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN NM...AND WILL MOVE WEST. ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. IF IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AREAS FROM KSAF AND KABQ MAY SEE SOME TS AS STORMS MOVE
WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  99  67  91  64 /  30  40  40  40
DULCE...........................  92  55  86  53 /  20  40  40  40
CUBA............................  89  57  86  57 /  30  20  40  50
GALLUP..........................  92  61  88  59 /  50  40  30  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  84  56 /  50  40  30  30
GRANTS..........................  89  58  88  58 /  30  30  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  87  58  86  58 /  60  30  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  91  61  92  61 /  40  30  10  10
CHAMA...........................  88  47  81  48 /  40  40  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  86  60  85  60 /  30  20  30  30
PECOS...........................  83  57  84  58 /  30  20  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  85  53  82  52 /  20  20  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  77  41  73  43 /  30  20  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  81  42  78  44 /  30  20  40  40
TAOS............................  90  54  85  53 /  20  20  30  30
MORA............................  83  53  84  54 /  30  20  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  93  60  89  60 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  91  60  87  60 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  95  60  90  60 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  95  66  91  66 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  97  69  93  69 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  99  64  95  64 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  98  66  95  66 /  20  20   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  95  65  95  65 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  95  68  95  68 /  20  20   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  96  69  96  70 /  20  20   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  58  89  60 /  30  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  92  61  90  61 /  30  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  93  58  92  58 /  20  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  60  87  60 /  10  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  62  88  62 /  20  20  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  93  64  89  64 /  20  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  84  56  84  59 /  30  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  91  55  88  57 /   5   5  20  20
RATON...........................  95  57  91  59 /  10   5  20  20
SPRINGER........................  94  59  93  60 /  10   5  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  57  87  58 /  20  10  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  96  65  97  66 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  91  63  92  64 /   5   5  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  97  69  98  69 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  96  66  96  66 /   5   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69 101  70 /   5   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  66  95  66 /   5   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  96  68  97  68 /   5   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  96  69  96  69 /   5   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  99  70  98  70 /   5   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  91  65  91  65 /  10   5  10   0
ELK.............................  86  61  86  62 /  30  10  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 230553 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR NW NM THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
MAINLY JUST EAST OF KFMN... BUT KFMN MAY SEE SOME IMPACTS BEFORE
10Z. ISOLD -TSRA IS ALSO MOVG SLOWLY WEST NEAR KSRR. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHRA AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP ON WED AFTN. STORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN NM...AND WILL MOVE WEST. ISOLD CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. IF IT DEVELOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...AREAS FROM KSAF AND KABQ MAY SEE SOME TS AS STORMS MOVE
WEST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND WIND
GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WOBBLING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF MORE
SUBSIDENT AREAS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...THIS WOBBLING WILL SHIFT
THE LOCALES OF GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE TO PERHAPS
STRONG UPTICK IN CONVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COMES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...IF NOT
FARTHER WEST. HOTTEST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EAST
SECTIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THEN SOME
COOLING LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTN COMPARED TO MON AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND INTERACTIONS WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EVE. TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 90S IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM PLUS DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MON SHOULD
HELP THE CAUSE SOME AS WELL. HIGH CENTER ALOFT IN PROCESS OF
SHIFTING TO THE NW SO CELLS MOVING IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS
MOST OF FCST AREA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING SO
FAR THIS AFTN...INDIVIDUAL CELL LIFESPANS AND TRAINING NOT ROBUST
ENOUGH TO HELP PINPOINT AN AREA OF HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT EVE SHIFT MAY WANT TO MONITOR
TRENDS. STORM MOTION IS SLOW FOR THE MOST PART...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A PRETTY GOOD BET WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LOCALIZED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
BURN SCARS.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW...MAYBE WELL BELOW...NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EAST NM DUE
TO DRYING AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO.
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND STORMS FAVORING MORE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO OVER AZ BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS SHIFT NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST PUSH NOW BEING PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE SAT NIGHT TO SUN
PERIOD. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND
NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A MEAN CENTROID LOCATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS SAG INTO THE
PLAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JOGGED NORTHWARD TOWARD S CO TODAY ALLOWING
A WAVE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WRAP ITS WAY
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST IN TIME TO BE TAPPED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MODERATE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FIRST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD INDUCE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
AND WETNESS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...THE ECMWF PHASES THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM RESULTING IN MUCH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE WAVE...HOLDING OFF THE
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY FAVORING
LOCATIONS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 222350 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AS WELL AS THE SW MTS. THOUGH INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER/LARGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS...ONE
BTW SAF AND LVS AND ANOTHER NEAR K4CR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
S AND SW. AFOREMENTIONED STORM SHOULD GRAZE KSAF...BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ON ITS TRACK...IT MAY NEAR KABQ/KAEG IN A FEW HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...THUS IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE
ABQ/AEG TAFS ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY INITIATE NEW STORMS AS THEY COLLIDE.
HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING KTCC MAY BE IMPACTED IN A FEW HOURS AND
INSERTED A VCTS INTO THE TAF. MOST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY
06Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON WED...FAVORING
WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WOBBLING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF MORE
SUBSIDENT AREAS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...THIS WOBBLING WILL SHIFT
THE LOCALES OF GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE TO PERHAPS
STRONG UPTICK IN CONVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COMES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...IF NOT
FARTHER WEST. HOTTEST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EAST
SECTIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THEN SOME
COOLING LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTN COMPARED TO MON AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND INTERACTIONS WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EVE. TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 90S IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM PLUS DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MON SHOULD
HELP THE CAUSE SOME AS WELL. HIGH CENTER ALOFT IN PROCESS OF
SHIFTING TO THE NW SO CELLS MOVING IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS
MOST OF FCST AREA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING SO
FAR THIS AFTN...INDIVIDUAL CELL LIFESPANS AND TRAINING NOT ROBUST
ENOUGH TO HELP PINPOINT AN AREA OF HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT EVE SHIFT MAY WANT TO MONITOR
TRENDS. STORM MOTION IS SLOW FOR THE MOST PART...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A PRETTY GOOD BET WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LOCALIZED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
BURN SCARS.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW...MAYBE WELL BELOW...NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EAST NM DUE
TO DRYING AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO.
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND STORMS FAVORING MORE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO OVER AZ BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS SHIFT NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST PUSH NOW BEING PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE SAT NIGHT TO SUN
PERIOD. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND
NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A MEAN CENTROID LOCATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS SAG INTO THE
PLAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JOGGED NORTHWARD TOWARD S CO TODAY ALLOWING
A WAVE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WRAP ITS WAY
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST IN TIME TO BE TAPPED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MODERATE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FIRST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD INDUCE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
AND WETNESS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...THE ECMWF PHASES THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM RESULTING IN MUCH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE WAVE...HOLDING OFF THE
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY FAVORING
LOCATIONS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 222350 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION SO FAR TODAY HAS BEEN FOCUSED ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AS WELL AS THE SW MTS. THOUGH INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SOME
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW STRONGER/LARGER CLUSTERS OF STORMS...ONE
BTW SAF AND LVS AND ANOTHER NEAR K4CR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
S AND SW. AFOREMENTIONED STORM SHOULD GRAZE KSAF...BUT IF IT
CONTINUES ON ITS TRACK...IT MAY NEAR KABQ/KAEG IN A FEW HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM...THUS IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE
ABQ/AEG TAFS ATTM. ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY INITIATE NEW STORMS AS THEY COLLIDE.
HRRR MODEL SUGGESTING KTCC MAY BE IMPACTED IN A FEW HOURS AND
INSERTED A VCTS INTO THE TAF. MOST CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY
06Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON WED...FAVORING
WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WOBBLING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF MORE
SUBSIDENT AREAS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...THIS WOBBLING WILL SHIFT
THE LOCALES OF GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE TO PERHAPS
STRONG UPTICK IN CONVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COMES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...IF NOT
FARTHER WEST. HOTTEST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EAST
SECTIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THEN SOME
COOLING LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTN COMPARED TO MON AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND INTERACTIONS WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EVE. TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 90S IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM PLUS DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MON SHOULD
HELP THE CAUSE SOME AS WELL. HIGH CENTER ALOFT IN PROCESS OF
SHIFTING TO THE NW SO CELLS MOVING IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS
MOST OF FCST AREA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING SO
FAR THIS AFTN...INDIVIDUAL CELL LIFESPANS AND TRAINING NOT ROBUST
ENOUGH TO HELP PINPOINT AN AREA OF HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT EVE SHIFT MAY WANT TO MONITOR
TRENDS. STORM MOTION IS SLOW FOR THE MOST PART...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A PRETTY GOOD BET WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LOCALIZED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
BURN SCARS.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW...MAYBE WELL BELOW...NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EAST NM DUE
TO DRYING AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO.
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND STORMS FAVORING MORE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO OVER AZ BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS SHIFT NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST PUSH NOW BEING PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE SAT NIGHT TO SUN
PERIOD. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND
NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A MEAN CENTROID LOCATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS SAG INTO THE
PLAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JOGGED NORTHWARD TOWARD S CO TODAY ALLOWING
A WAVE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WRAP ITS WAY
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST IN TIME TO BE TAPPED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MODERATE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FIRST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD INDUCE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
AND WETNESS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...THE ECMWF PHASES THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM RESULTING IN MUCH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE WAVE...HOLDING OFF THE
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY FAVORING
LOCATIONS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 222126
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WOBBLING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF MORE
SUBSIDENT AREAS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...THIS WOBBLING WILL SHIFT
THE LOCALES OF GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE TO PERHAPS
STRONG UPTICK IN CONVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COMES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...IF NOT
FARTHER WEST. HOTTEST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EAST
SECTIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THEN SOME
COOLING LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTN COMPARED TO MON AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND INTERACTIONS WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EVE. TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 90S IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM PLUS DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MON SHOULD
HELP THE CAUSE SOME AS WELL. HIGH CENTER ALOFT IN PROCESS OF
SHIFTING TO THE NW SO CELLS MOVING IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS
MOST OF FCST AREA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING SO
FAR THIS AFTN...INDIVIDUAL CELL LIFESPANS AND TRAINING NOT ROBUST
ENOUGH TO HELP PINPOINT AN AREA OF HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT EVE SHIFT MAY WANT TO MONITOR
TRENDS. STORM MOTION IS SLOW FOR THE MOST PART...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A PRETTY GOOD BET WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LOCALIZED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
BURN SCARS.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW...MAYBE WELL BELOW...NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EAST NM DUE
TO DRYING AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO.
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND STORMS FAVORING MORE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO OVER AZ BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS SHIFT NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST PUSH NOW BEING PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE SAT NIGHT TO SUN
PERIOD. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND
NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A MEAN CENTROID LOCATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS SAG INTO THE
PLAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JOGGED NORTHWARD TOWARD S CO TODAY ALLOWING
A WAVE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WRAP ITS WAY
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST IN TIME TO BE TAPPED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MODERATE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FIRST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD INDUCE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
AND WETNESS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...THE ECMWF PHASES THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM RESULTING IN MUCH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE WAVE...HOLDING OFF THE
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY FAVORING
LOCATIONS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVER CO TODAY ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE INTO NM FROM THE
E AND SE. THEREFORE...EXPECT INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
MODELS FAVORING THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND E PLAINS. STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE W AND NW CAUSING CELLS THAT FORM OVER
THE MTS TO CROSS ADJACENT LOWLANDS LIKE KSAF...KABQ AND KGUP.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF STORMS AT TAF
SITES...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
COULD BE HIT BY MULTIPLE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING.
ERRATIC MICROBURST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
MAINLY WET MICROBURSTS IN THE E AND A MIXTURE OF WET/DRY
MICROBURSTS IN THE WEST. TS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY E
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SW AND S CENTRAL AREAS FAVORED FOR ISOLD LATE NIGHT STORMS.

32/44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  97  65  92 /  10  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  53  88  53  88 /  20  30  30  30
CUBA............................  57  87  56  87 /  20  30  20  50
GALLUP..........................  60  89  59  88 /  10  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  57  85  55  86 /  20  40  40  20
GRANTS..........................  57  87  56  87 /  20  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  58  86  57  87 /  20  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  90  60  93 /  30  30  30  10
CHAMA...........................  51  83  50  83 /  20  50  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  85  60  87 /  40  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  58  84  57  87 /  50  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  83  54  84 /  20  30  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  48  73  47  76 /  20  30  30  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  78  44  78 /  40  30  20  30
TAOS............................  53  86  53  86 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  54  82  53  84 /  50  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  60  89  60  90 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  61  88  60  88 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  90  59  91 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  89  66  92 /  40  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  92  68  93 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  93  66  95 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  92  67  94 /  30  20  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  93  63  96 /  40  20  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  67  91  66  93 /  40  20  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  93  69  97 /  50  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  87  60  89 /  50  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  60  88  61  90 /  50  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  89  57  91 /  50  20  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  87  59  88 /  40  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  87  62  89 /  50  20  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  88  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  56  82  56  84 /  40  20  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  59  87  60  89 /  30  10  10  20
RATON...........................  57  90  58  92 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  59  91  59  93 /  20  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  85  56  89 /  50  10  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  65  96  65  98 /  20   5   5  10
ROY.............................  62  92  62  94 /  30   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  67  96  68  98 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  67  95  66  98 /  40   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  98  69 102 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  65  94  66  97 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  67  95  68  98 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  96  68  97 /  30   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  70  99  70 100 /  30   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  65  91  65  93 /  40  10   5   5
ELK.............................  62  86  62  89 /  40  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 222126
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE WOBBLING OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION
OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR LONGER. ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF MORE
SUBSIDENT AREAS AROUND THE HIGH CENTER...THIS WOBBLING WILL SHIFT
THE LOCALES OF GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT BETWEEN LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AND
THE FOLLOWING TUESDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A MODERATE TO PERHAPS
STRONG UPTICK IN CONVECTION NEAR AND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THAT COMES ACROSS AT LEAST EAST AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...IF NOT
FARTHER WEST. HOTTEST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...SOUTH AND EAST
SECTIONS LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY THEN SOME
COOLING LATE IN WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BETTER CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NM THIS
AFTN COMPARED TO MON AT THIS TIME. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND INTERACTIONS WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA INTO THE EVE. TEMPS IN MID TO UPPER 90S IN MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM PLUS DEWPOINTS A BIT HIGHER THAN THIS TIME MON SHOULD
HELP THE CAUSE SOME AS WELL. HIGH CENTER ALOFT IN PROCESS OF
SHIFTING TO THE NW SO CELLS MOVING IN AN ANTICYCLONIC ARC ACROSS
MOST OF FCST AREA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN ONE FLASH FLOOD WARNING SO
FAR THIS AFTN...INDIVIDUAL CELL LIFESPANS AND TRAINING NOT ROBUST
ENOUGH TO HELP PINPOINT AN AREA OF HIGH ENOUGH RISK TO WARRANT A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...BUT EVE SHIFT MAY WANT TO MONITOR
TRENDS. STORM MOTION IS SLOW FOR THE MOST PART...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS A PRETTY GOOD BET WITH STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL
FOR VERY LOCALIZED MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
BURN SCARS.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW...MAYBE WELL BELOW...NORMAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN CENTRAL AND PERHAPS EAST NM DUE
TO DRYING AS THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTS BACK SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO.
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MOISTURE AND STORMS FAVORING MORE THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST TO OVER AZ BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THIS SHIFT NOW SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR BACKDOOR FRONTS TO MOVE SW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND REPLENISH MOISTURE FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FIRST PUSH NOW BEING PROGGED TO OCCUR IN THE SAT NIGHT TO SUN
PERIOD. WITH THE MOISTURE AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES...LOOK FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TREND BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE AROUND
NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH A MEAN CENTROID LOCATION OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD ACROSS THE EAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS SAG INTO THE
PLAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER JOGGED NORTHWARD TOWARD S CO TODAY ALLOWING
A WAVE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASED
COVERAGE OF WETTING AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO WRAP ITS WAY
ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH JUST IN TIME TO BE TAPPED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUS...WESTERN AREAS SHOULD HAVE
GREATER MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

A MODERATE MOISTURE INCREASE WITH THE FIRST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD INDUCE AN UPTICK IN THE COVERAGE
AND WETNESS OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY...THE ECMWF PHASES THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONTAL MOISTURE WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE PASSING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM RESULTING IN MUCH BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE
A SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THE WAVE...HOLDING OFF THE
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE UNTIL SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY FAVORING
LOCATIONS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT
NORTHWARD OVER CO TODAY ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE INTO NM FROM THE
E AND SE. THEREFORE...EXPECT INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
MODELS FAVORING THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND E PLAINS. STORMS WILL
GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE W AND NW CAUSING CELLS THAT FORM OVER
THE MTS TO CROSS ADJACENT LOWLANDS LIKE KSAF...KABQ AND KGUP.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF STORMS AT TAF
SITES...AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
COULD BE HIT BY MULTIPLE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVENING.
ERRATIC MICROBURST WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
MAINLY WET MICROBURSTS IN THE E AND A MIXTURE OF WET/DRY
MICROBURSTS IN THE WEST. TS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE GUSTY E
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE
EVENING. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SW AND S CENTRAL AREAS FAVORED FOR ISOLD LATE NIGHT STORMS.

32/44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  97  65  92 /  10  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  53  88  53  88 /  20  30  30  30
CUBA............................  57  87  56  87 /  20  30  20  50
GALLUP..........................  60  89  59  88 /  10  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  57  85  55  86 /  20  40  40  20
GRANTS..........................  57  87  56  87 /  20  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  58  86  57  87 /  20  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  90  60  93 /  30  30  30  10
CHAMA...........................  51  83  50  83 /  20  50  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  85  60  87 /  40  30  20  20
PECOS...........................  58  84  57  87 /  50  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  83  54  84 /  20  30  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  48  73  47  76 /  20  30  30  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  78  44  78 /  40  30  20  30
TAOS............................  53  86  53  86 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  54  82  53  84 /  50  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  60  89  60  90 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  61  88  60  88 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  90  59  91 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  89  66  92 /  40  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  92  68  93 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  93  66  95 /  40  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  67  92  67  94 /  30  20  10   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  93  63  96 /  40  20  10   5
RIO RANCHO......................  67  91  66  93 /  40  20  10   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  93  69  97 /  50  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  87  60  89 /  50  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  60  88  61  90 /  50  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  89  57  91 /  50  20  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  87  59  88 /  40  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  87  62  89 /  50  20  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  64  88  64  91 /  40  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  56  82  56  84 /  40  20  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  59  87  60  89 /  30  10  10  20
RATON...........................  57  90  58  92 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  59  91  59  93 /  20  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  85  56  89 /  50  10  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  65  96  65  98 /  20   5   5  10
ROY.............................  62  92  62  94 /  30   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  67  96  68  98 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  67  95  66  98 /  40   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  98  69 102 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  65  94  66  97 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  67  95  68  98 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  96  68  97 /  30   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  70  99  70 100 /  30   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  65  91  65  93 /  40  10   5   5
ELK.............................  62  86  62  89 /  40  20   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






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