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000
FXUS65 KABQ 030941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW
MEXICO TODAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GET GOING EARLIER
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO COME BY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE ACT
MONDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE LIMITS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
THE NAM12 INDICATING THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
GET GOING EARLY TODAY...DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER SW AND
CENTRAL AREAS. AREAS WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY AND TEMPS
COOL ACCORDINGLY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DUAL
POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM KABX AND KFDX FROM
THURSDAY INDICATING A CLASSIC FOOTPRINT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE STABILIZATION OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER HEALTHY ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
IN STORE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD. SIMILAR SET UP
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE
EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...AND WITH 30-35KTS OF JET
LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NE NM WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ELSEWHERE COOLING MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THINGS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND ATTEMPT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING INTO NM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK SLY
MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE OVER NM.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM REGIME CONTINUES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A MIXED-BAG OF
SUN/CLOUDS/RAIN WILL BRING VARIABLE VENT RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH LOOK TO BE GOOD/EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND POOR TO FAIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WESTERLIES
MAKE A BRIEF RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP LATE NEXT
WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  65  88  64 /  20  50  20  30
DULCE...........................  82  52  82  53 /  40  60  40  50
CUBA............................  78  54  78  55 /  40  60  40  50
GALLUP..........................  84  57  82  54 /  50  20  30  40
EL MORRO........................  83  55  80  53 /  60  30  50  50
GRANTS..........................  85  55  84  55 /  50  20  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  84  57  79  56 /  60  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  57  86  56 /  50  40  50  40
CHAMA...........................  72  49  75  48 /  60  70  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  59  79  60 /  40  40  50  50
PECOS...........................  75  56  76  57 /  50  30  40  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  52  74  52 /  40  60  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  67  47  68  48 /  80  70  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  50  69  50 /  70  70  50  50
TAOS............................  79  53  80  53 /  30  20  20  30
MORA............................  73  53  75  54 /  50  70  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  85  58  86  59 /  20  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  78  60  80  61 /  50  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  59  83  60 /  40  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  64  84  65 /  50  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  85  67  86  67 /  50  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  63  88  63 /  40  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  66  87  66 /  40  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  64  89  63 /  40  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  86  66  87  66 /  40  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  90  65  90  66 /  50  30  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  59  81  60 /  80  20  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  80  57  82  56 /  50  20  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  53  83  52 /  50  20  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  75  57  78  58 /  60  20  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  79  59  80  59 /  60  20  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  62  85  62 /  60  30  30  40
RUIDOSO.........................  75  57  76  58 /  60  40  60  30
CAPULIN.........................  75  56  78  59 /  70  40  30  20
RATON...........................  79  55  81  56 /  50  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  81  57  83  59 /  50  40  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  74  54  77  55 /  50  20  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  84  61  87  64 /  50  30  10  10
ROY.............................  80  60  81  61 /  50  40  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  87  65  90  66 /  50  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  85  64  88  64 /  50  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  89  65  90  68 /  40  30  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  85  64  87  66 /  30  20  10  10
PORTALES........................  87  65  88  66 /  30  20  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  66  88  66 /  40  20  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  89  67  91  67 /  40  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  84  62  85  62 /  50  30  30  20
ELK.............................  76  60  77  60 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 030941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW
MEXICO TODAY AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY GET GOING EARLIER
THAN IS TYPICAL WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
A ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY AND SUNDAY EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE
STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS HARD TO COME BY. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO GET THE EASTERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE ACT
MONDAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST POSSIBLE LIMITS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES EARLY
THIS MORNING. HI RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGESTING THIS CONVECTION WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. LAST COUPLE RUNS OF
THE NAM12 INDICATING THAT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
GET GOING EARLY TODAY...DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS OVER SW AND
CENTRAL AREAS. AREAS WHERE CONVECTION DEVELOPS EARLY AND TEMPS
COOL ACCORDINGLY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY.
ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TAP...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY. DUAL
POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM KABX AND KFDX FROM
THURSDAY INDICATING A CLASSIC FOOTPRINT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED TODAY.

MAIN CHANGE FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE STABILIZATION OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ANOTHER HEALTHY ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS
IN STORE FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WWD. SIMILAR SET UP
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE
EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF SPEEDING UP AN UNSEASONABLY
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FOR MONDAY...AND WITH 30-35KTS OF JET
LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR NE NM WILL COOL TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ELSEWHERE COOLING MARKEDLY ON TUESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEP THINGS ACTIVE WEDNESDAY AND ATTEMPT TO SCOUR OUT MOISTURE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS MORE BULLISH WITH THE DRY AIR AHEAD OF A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST MOVING INTO NM FROM
THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK SLY
MOISTURE PLUME IN PLACE OVER NM.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM REGIME CONTINUES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PWATS AND WEAK STEERING FLOW LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD
THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND A MIXED-BAG OF
SUN/CLOUDS/RAIN WILL BRING VARIABLE VENT RATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WHICH LOOK TO BE GOOD/EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
AND POOR TO FAIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH MAY ALLOW
FOR DRIER AIR TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WESTERLIES
MAKE A BRIEF RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP BACK UP LATE NEXT
WEEK TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  91  65  88  64 /  20  50  20  30
DULCE...........................  82  52  82  53 /  40  60  40  50
CUBA............................  78  54  78  55 /  40  60  40  50
GALLUP..........................  84  57  82  54 /  50  20  30  40
EL MORRO........................  83  55  80  53 /  60  30  50  50
GRANTS..........................  85  55  84  55 /  50  20  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  84  57  79  56 /  60  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  57  86  56 /  50  40  50  40
CHAMA...........................  72  49  75  48 /  60  70  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  59  79  60 /  40  40  50  50
PECOS...........................  75  56  76  57 /  50  30  40  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  52  74  52 /  40  60  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  67  47  68  48 /  80  70  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  50  69  50 /  70  70  50  50
TAOS............................  79  53  80  53 /  30  20  20  30
MORA............................  73  53  75  54 /  50  70  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  85  58  86  59 /  20  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  78  60  80  61 /  50  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  59  83  60 /  40  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  64  84  65 /  50  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  85  67  86  67 /  50  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  63  88  63 /  40  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  66  87  66 /  40  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  64  89  63 /  40  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  86  66  87  66 /  40  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  90  65  90  66 /  50  30  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  59  81  60 /  80  20  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  80  57  82  56 /  50  20  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  53  83  52 /  50  20  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  75  57  78  58 /  60  20  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  79  59  80  59 /  60  20  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  62  85  62 /  60  30  30  40
RUIDOSO.........................  75  57  76  58 /  60  40  60  30
CAPULIN.........................  75  56  78  59 /  70  40  30  20
RATON...........................  79  55  81  56 /  50  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  81  57  83  59 /  50  40  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  74  54  77  55 /  50  20  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  84  61  87  64 /  50  30  10  10
ROY.............................  80  60  81  61 /  50  40  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  87  65  90  66 /  50  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  85  64  88  64 /  50  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  89  65  90  68 /  40  30  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  85  64  87  66 /  30  20  10  10
PORTALES........................  87  65  88  66 /  30  20  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  66  88  66 /  40  20  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  89  67  91  67 /  40  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  84  62  85  62 /  50  30  30  20
ELK.............................  76  60  77  60 /  50  50  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 030008
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 030008
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 030008
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 030008
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THE EVENING
SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SOME STORMS LIKELY EVEN SUSTAINING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. A VERY MOIST AIR
MASS IS IN PLACE...SO DOWNPOURS WILL QUICKLY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CATEGORIES AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY TO
IFR CATEGORY. DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
ANY STORMS. LITTLE IF ANY STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT ELSEWHERE THE COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE
LATE MORNING NEW STORMS WILL REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 022125
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE 595DM H5 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  91  63  92 /  50  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  51  83  50  84 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  53  78  52  80 /  60  50  60  40
GALLUP..........................  57  86  54  86 /  50  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  56  83  54  83 /  60  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  59  86  56  86 /  70  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  60  83  58  82 /  50  50  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  56  87  55  83 /  40  40  40  40
CHAMA...........................  49  76  48  76 /  40  50  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  79  60  80 /  50  40  60  50
PECOS...........................  57  75  56  77 /  60  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  52  74 /  50  50  50  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  63  46  65 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  65  51  68 /  70  80  70  60
TAOS............................  52  79  51  80 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  52  72  52  75 /  60  60  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  58  85  57  86 /  40  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  61  78  61  79 /  60  50  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  83  60  84 /  60  30  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  85  66  86 /  70  40  60  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  87  68  88 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  89  66  90 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  91  68  92 /  60  20  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  68  89  65  90 /  60  20  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  89  67  90 /  60  20  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  68  92  66  92 /  60  20  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  58  82 /  70  60  70  40
TIJERAS.........................  60  83  60  84 /  70  50  70  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  82  52  83 /  60  40  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  77  56  78 /  70  40  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  80  58  81 /  70  50  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  86  62  85 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  57  76  57  76 /  70  60  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  57  76  56  78 /  40  50  70  30
RATON...........................  55  79  54  82 /  40  30  40  20
SPRINGER........................  57  80  57  83 /  60  50  60  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  75  53  77 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  61  82  60  85 /  30  40  60  20
ROY.............................  59  79  59  80 /  60  50  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  65  86  64  87 /  40  20  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  50  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  87  64  88 /  40  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  63  86 /  60  20  50  10
PORTALES........................  65  86  65  87 /  60  20  50  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  85  64  87 /  60  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  90  65  91 /  50  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  61  84  61  85 /  50  40  40  20
ELK.............................  60  77  59  78 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 022125
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TAP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL FOCUS WEST
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MOVE STORMS SOUTHWARD. THE STRONG
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER AND CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH
MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION... THE 595DM H5 HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED
ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY HAS WEAKENED TO 592DM WHILE REORGANIZING WEST
INTO AZ. DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS ALSO WORKED INTO THE
AREA...WHICH IS EVIDENT ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS STRONG STORMS
ARE FIRING UP. THE LATEST HRRR/5KM WRF/SPC SSEO/AND NAM12 ARE STILL
ADVERTISING A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THRU THIS EVENING. EXPECT STORMS
TO ORGANIZE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND THE
NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH 6PM. AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MAY
RESULT FROM EASTERN CIBOLA AND CATRON COUNTIES EAST ACROSS SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AS IS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALSO LOOK VERY ACTIVE WITH OVERALL LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED TO THE PATTERN OF MOIST INSTABILITY. ORIGINALLY A
DOWNTICK WAS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN MODELS
TRENDED LATER INTO SUNDAY...NOW IT APPEARS THAT TREND IS PROGGED BY
MONDAY. THE MOISTURE IS HERE TO STAY AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE OTHERWISE...SO HAVE KEPT HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS IN ALL
PERIODS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WHILE THE HIGH REORGANIZES SOUTH AND/OR
EAST OF NM. STORM MOTIONS THROUGH THE MULTI-DAY PERIOD WILL BE SLOW
WITH PWAT VALUES HOVERING BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES. THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY
VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN SPIKE EVEN HIGHER TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND SLOW STORM
MOTIONS THAT ARE ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE SOME WEDNESDAY.

THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTHWEST OF NM AND
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STEER A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND WILL IMPACT TYPICALLY FAVORED PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE IN PART
TO THE FRONT...BUT ALSO TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS
MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AND THE UPPER HIGH WILL
MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE FOUR CORNERS.

SATURDAY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT MORE SQUARELY
OVERHEAD. WITH ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH PLENTY
OF SLOW MOVING STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SOME CELLS MAY REMAIN STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE A LOT OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN NM AS AN
UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THIS WILL ADD FORCING FOR
STRONGER STORMS AND GET THE STORMS MOVING AGAIN...GENERALLY TOWARD
THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
AREA PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST. ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH TUESDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHIFTING IT EAST OF NM
AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE
STATE. THE GFS BUILDS THE HIGH BACK OVER NM WITH MONSOON MOISTURE
SEEPING NORTHWARD UNDERNEATH.  EITHER WAY WETTING STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE...THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY...THEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS
TUESDAY AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...UPWARD TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY...THEN BACK DOWN
BELOW NORMAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  91  63  92 /  50  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  51  83  50  84 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  53  78  52  80 /  60  50  60  40
GALLUP..........................  57  86  54  86 /  50  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  56  83  54  83 /  60  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  59  86  56  86 /  70  30  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  60  83  58  82 /  50  50  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  56  87  55  83 /  40  40  40  40
CHAMA...........................  49  76  48  76 /  40  50  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  79  60  80 /  50  40  60  50
PECOS...........................  57  75  56  77 /  60  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  52  74 /  50  50  50  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  63  46  65 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  65  51  68 /  70  80  70  60
TAOS............................  52  79  51  80 /  40  30  30  30
MORA............................  52  72  52  75 /  60  60  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  58  85  57  86 /  40  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  61  78  61  79 /  60  50  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  83  60  84 /  60  30  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  67  85  66  86 /  70  40  60  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  87  68  88 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  89  66  90 /  60  20  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  91  68  92 /  60  20  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  68  89  65  90 /  60  20  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  89  67  90 /  60  20  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  68  92  66  92 /  60  20  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  58  82 /  70  60  70  40
TIJERAS.........................  60  83  60  84 /  70  50  70  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  82  52  83 /  60  40  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  77  56  78 /  70  40  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  80  58  81 /  70  50  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  86  62  85 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  57  76  57  76 /  70  60  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  57  76  56  78 /  40  50  70  30
RATON...........................  55  79  54  82 /  40  30  40  20
SPRINGER........................  57  80  57  83 /  60  50  60  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  75  53  77 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  61  82  60  85 /  30  40  60  20
ROY.............................  59  79  59  80 /  60  50  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  65  86  64  87 /  40  20  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  50  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  87  64  88 /  40  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  63  86 /  60  20  50  10
PORTALES........................  65  86  65  87 /  60  20  50  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  85  64  87 /  60  20  50  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  90  65  91 /  50  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  61  84  61  85 /  50  40  40  20
ELK.............................  60  77  59  78 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021812 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINAGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021812 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINAGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021812 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINAGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021812 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1212 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH ON SCT TO NMRS TS THIS AFTN AND EVENING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WET MICROBURSTS WITH ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS...SOME POSSIBLY REACHING OVER 45 KT. CELLS WILL PROPAGATE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE S...EXCEPT TOWARD THE SSE ON PARTS OF THE
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE SW ACROSS THE SW MTS. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFT MIDNIGHT WITH SCT TO ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED. A GUSTY
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ALREADY ENTERING THE NE PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SWWD TODAY AND PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A
MODERATELY STRONG E CANYON WIND IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY FROM LATE
AFTN THROUGH EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT PATCHES OF LOW
CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE E PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINAGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021701 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021701 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021701 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021701 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER POURING OVER LATEST GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE DECIDED TO
HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS THE
MOIST INSTABILITY AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE JEMEZ SOUTHEAST OVER
SANTA FE COUNTY...INTO THE THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE HRRR AND LOCAL 5KM WRF...ALONG WITH THAN NAM12 AND SPC SSEO
GUIDANCE SHOWS VIGOROUS CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PLACED WATCH IN AREAS THAT HAVE BEST ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE BURN SCARS...AND URBAN DRAINGES LIKE ABQ...
SAF...PORTALES...AND CLOVIS. RAISED POPS AND QPF TO FOLLOW SUIT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506-507-511>515-518-519-521>524-528-529-531>537.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021131 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021131 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOWER VFR CIGS WILL BE THE TREND FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. INCREASED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IS EXPECTED...WITH MVFR IMPACTS. IFR
IMPACTS IN STORMS LIKELY AS WELL...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.
TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KSAF...KLVS AND KTCC.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING
OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
02/1000UTC. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  65  92  65 /  30  30  10  20
DULCE...........................  86  52  86  51 /  30  30  40  40
CUBA............................  84  54  81  53 /  40  40  50  50
GALLUP..........................  89  58  86  52 /  30  40  20  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  83  54 /  50  50  60  50
GRANTS..........................  90  58  86  55 /  30  40  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  88  60  82  59 /  40  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  93  59  87  58 /  40  50  50  30
CHAMA...........................  77  50  76  49 /  70  30  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  61  80  60 /  50  40  40  60
PECOS...........................  84  57  76  56 /  60  50  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  52  73  51 /  50  50  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  67  46 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  50  67  50 /  80  50  70  60
TAOS............................  81  53  80  52 /  30  40  40  30
MORA............................  77  53  72  52 /  60  50  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  90  59  86  58 /  30  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  85  61  78  60 /  60  30  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  60  83  59 /  40  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  67  86  66 /  30  30  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  94  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  68  89  67 /  20  30  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  66  90  65 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  94  67  89  66 /  30  40  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  94  66 /  30  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  57  82  58 /  50  40  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  88  58  84  55 /  50  40  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  53  83  52 /  40  30  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  58  78  57 /  50  60  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  60  81  59 /  40  40  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  64  85  62 /  20  30  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  82  59  76  58 /  60  50  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  78  58  75  57 /  60  40  50  50
RATON...........................  82  56  78  54 /  60  40  50  50
SPRINGER........................  84  58  80  56 /  60  40  40  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  54  74  54 /  70  50  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  82  61 /  30  40  30  50
ROY.............................  83  60  77  59 /  50  40  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  94  65  86  64 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  85  63 /  40  50  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  65  87  64 /  50  50  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  89  65  85  64 /  40  40  20  40
PORTALES........................  91  66  87  65 /  40  40  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  87  65 /  20  30  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  90  67 /  10  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  91  63  84  62 /  30  30  20  20
ELK.............................  84  60  78  59 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING
OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
02/1000UTC. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  65  92  65 /  30  30  10  20
DULCE...........................  86  52  86  51 /  30  30  40  40
CUBA............................  84  54  81  53 /  40  40  50  50
GALLUP..........................  89  58  86  52 /  30  40  20  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  83  54 /  50  50  60  50
GRANTS..........................  90  58  86  55 /  30  40  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  88  60  82  59 /  40  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  93  59  87  58 /  40  50  50  30
CHAMA...........................  77  50  76  49 /  70  30  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  61  80  60 /  50  40  40  60
PECOS...........................  84  57  76  56 /  60  50  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  52  73  51 /  50  50  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  67  46 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  50  67  50 /  80  50  70  60
TAOS............................  81  53  80  52 /  30  40  40  30
MORA............................  77  53  72  52 /  60  50  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  90  59  86  58 /  30  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  85  61  78  60 /  60  30  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  60  83  59 /  40  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  67  86  66 /  30  30  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  94  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  68  89  67 /  20  30  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  66  90  65 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  94  67  89  66 /  30  40  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  94  66 /  30  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  57  82  58 /  50  40  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  88  58  84  55 /  50  40  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  53  83  52 /  40  30  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  58  78  57 /  50  60  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  60  81  59 /  40  40  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  64  85  62 /  20  30  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  82  59  76  58 /  60  50  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  78  58  75  57 /  60  40  50  50
RATON...........................  82  56  78  54 /  60  40  50  50
SPRINGER........................  84  58  80  56 /  60  40  40  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  54  74  54 /  70  50  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  82  61 /  30  40  30  50
ROY.............................  83  60  77  59 /  50  40  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  94  65  86  64 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  85  63 /  40  50  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  65  87  64 /  50  50  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  89  65  85  64 /  40  40  20  40
PORTALES........................  91  66  87  65 /  40  40  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  87  65 /  20  30  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  90  67 /  10  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  91  63  84  62 /  30  30  20  20
ELK.............................  84  60  78  59 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING
OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
02/1000UTC. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  65  92  65 /  30  30  10  20
DULCE...........................  86  52  86  51 /  30  30  40  40
CUBA............................  84  54  81  53 /  40  40  50  50
GALLUP..........................  89  58  86  52 /  30  40  20  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  83  54 /  50  50  60  50
GRANTS..........................  90  58  86  55 /  30  40  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  88  60  82  59 /  40  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  93  59  87  58 /  40  50  50  30
CHAMA...........................  77  50  76  49 /  70  30  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  61  80  60 /  50  40  40  60
PECOS...........................  84  57  76  56 /  60  50  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  52  73  51 /  50  50  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  67  46 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  50  67  50 /  80  50  70  60
TAOS............................  81  53  80  52 /  30  40  40  30
MORA............................  77  53  72  52 /  60  50  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  90  59  86  58 /  30  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  85  61  78  60 /  60  30  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  60  83  59 /  40  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  67  86  66 /  30  30  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  94  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  68  89  67 /  20  30  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  66  90  65 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  94  67  89  66 /  30  40  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  94  66 /  30  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  57  82  58 /  50  40  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  88  58  84  55 /  50  40  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  53  83  52 /  40  30  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  58  78  57 /  50  60  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  60  81  59 /  40  40  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  64  85  62 /  20  30  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  82  59  76  58 /  60  50  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  78  58  75  57 /  60  40  50  50
RATON...........................  82  56  78  54 /  60  40  50  50
SPRINGER........................  84  58  80  56 /  60  40  40  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  54  74  54 /  70  50  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  82  61 /  30  40  30  50
ROY.............................  83  60  77  59 /  50  40  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  94  65  86  64 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  85  63 /  40  50  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  65  87  64 /  50  50  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  89  65  85  64 /  40  40  20  40
PORTALES........................  91  66  87  65 /  40  40  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  87  65 /  20  30  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  90  67 /  10  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  91  63  84  62 /  30  30  20  20
ELK.............................  84  60  78  59 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
343 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS
SOMEWHAT TODAY...A HEALTHY CROP OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AND MOVE SOUTHWARD
OVER VALLEYS AND BASINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE UPPER HIGH MOVING LITTLE AND MOISTURE
ROTATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE HIGH...ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STRONG N-NWLY FLOW ALOFT SENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LAST EVENING. LIGHT
SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST SIDE OF ABQ EASTWARD
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 AS DEFORMATION/STRETCHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WEAK LIFT. ACTIVE
DAY IN STORE TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS
SAID DEFORMATION AXIS REORIENTS ITSELF OVER CENTRAL NM WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ALOFT NEAR THE AZ LINE AND 20KTS OF NLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER FAR ERN NM. SEVERAL STORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA
BUT EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD BTWN 10-15KTS AND
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. MODELS CONTINUE
WITH IDEA OF BRINGING IN DRIER AIR ALOFT FRIDAY BUT PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY.

LOW LEVELS REMAIN PLENTY MOIST (PWATS ~ 1.0 INCH) FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOURTH OF JULY. AGAIN...STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH BTWN
10-15KTS...KEEPING FLASH FLOODING LOCALIZED DUE TO TRAINING.
CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO REMAINING FIXED ALONG THE SE SLOPES
OF THE SANGRES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW LIGHT SELY. A SPEED MAX IN NW
FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ERN NM SATURDAY EVENING COULD
PROVIDE A NATURAL FIREWORKS SHOW WELL AFTER SUNSET THERE.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH CENTER SEWD OVER
NM SUNDAY. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH THE
FACT THAT THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH ARE
FORECAST TO BE ~ 592 DM (-5C) WHICH IS PLENTY UNSTABLE IF SFC
HIGH TEMPS ARE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY JULY.

00Z GFS AND ECWMF BOTH TRENDING TOWARD SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SW NM/SE AZ MONDAY AS OPPOSED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH PUSHED
IT EAST INTO W TX. THIS NEW SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD WITH MORE PREVALENT
BACKDOOR FRONTAL PASSAGES. GFS AND ECMWF START TO DIFFER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH GETS
FORCED EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS OR WHETHER IT REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER ERN NM. AT ANY RATE...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TREND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE DOWN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY
AND FRIDAY AS PWATS CONTINUE TO TREND UP AND PRESSURE HEIGHTS TREND
DOWN SLIGHTLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK THANKS TO ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND SOME RAIN-COOLING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BRING SOAKING RAINS GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO OVER
NEW MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING
TO AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DOWN TREND IN CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ROUNDS OF
STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...THANKS IN PART TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
PATTERN GOING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THE GFS KEEPS THE
MID LEVEL HIGH CENTROID OVER NEW MEXICO. LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
ON WHETHER OR NOT THE UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON PATTERN WILL DEVELOP.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING
OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
02/1000UTC. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  94  65  92  65 /  30  30  10  20
DULCE...........................  86  52  86  51 /  30  30  40  40
CUBA............................  84  54  81  53 /  40  40  50  50
GALLUP..........................  89  58  86  52 /  30  40  20  30
EL MORRO........................  86  56  83  54 /  50  50  60  50
GRANTS..........................  90  58  86  55 /  30  40  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  88  60  82  59 /  40  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  93  59  87  58 /  40  50  50  30
CHAMA...........................  77  50  76  49 /  70  30  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  61  80  60 /  50  40  40  60
PECOS...........................  84  57  76  56 /  60  50  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  52  73  51 /  50  50  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  67  46 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  50  67  50 /  80  50  70  60
TAOS............................  81  53  80  52 /  30  40  40  30
MORA............................  77  53  72  52 /  60  50  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  90  59  86  58 /  30  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  85  61  78  60 /  60  30  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  88  60  83  59 /  40  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  92  67  86  66 /  30  30  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  94  70  88  69 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  65  90  64 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  95  68  89  67 /  20  30  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  66  90  65 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  94  67  89  66 /  30  40  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  94  66 /  30  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  57  82  58 /  50  40  50  50
TIJERAS.........................  88  58  84  55 /  50  40  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  53  83  52 /  40  30  40  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  58  78  57 /  50  60  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  60  81  59 /  40  40  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  64  85  62 /  20  30  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  82  59  76  58 /  60  50  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  78  58  75  57 /  60  40  50  50
RATON...........................  82  56  78  54 /  60  40  50  50
SPRINGER........................  84  58  80  56 /  60  40  40  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  80  54  74  54 /  70  50  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  82  61 /  30  40  30  50
ROY.............................  83  60  77  59 /  50  40  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  94  65  86  64 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  85  63 /  40  50  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  65  87  64 /  50  50  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  89  65  85  64 /  40  40  20  40
PORTALES........................  91  66  87  65 /  40  40  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  87  65 /  20  30  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  90  67 /  10  10  10  20
PICACHO.........................  91  63  84  62 /  30  30  20  20
ELK.............................  84  60  78  59 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020542
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING
OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
02/1000UTC. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020542
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1142 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SAGGING
OVER NORTHEASTERN TO EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS TO 45 KT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND MUCH
OF THE ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BEFORE
02/1000UTC. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE
MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 012352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT BACKED INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...AND WHILE ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN VERY WIDESPREAD
THERE...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AFTER A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 012352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT BACKED INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...AND WHILE ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN VERY WIDESPREAD
THERE...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AFTER A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT BACKED INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...AND WHILE ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN VERY WIDESPREAD
THERE...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AFTER A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 012352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND LIKELY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT BACKED INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE
STATE...AND WHILE ACTIVITY HAS NOT YET BEEN VERY WIDESPREAD
THERE...CLUSTERS AND LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SAGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF COLORADO AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. HEFTY DOWNPOURS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY...AND GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS. THE COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL DECREASE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AFTER A LULL IN
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE MORNING...NEW BATCHES OF STORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012118
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY SCT AFTN AND EVENING TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THESE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE S OR W...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E ACROSS NE AREAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS STORMY INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY LEADING TO WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  95  64  92 /  30  30  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  88  50  86 /  40  30  30  40
CUBA............................  55  86  53  79 /  70  40  70  50
GALLUP..........................  58  90  56  88 /  40  30  40  40
EL MORRO........................  56  86  55  83 /  60  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  60  90  58  85 /  40  30  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  59  88  59  83 /  40  40  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  55  91  56  84 /  20  30  40  40
CHAMA...........................  50  79  49  77 /  60  70  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  86  61  80 /  60  50  60  50
PECOS...........................  58  84  56  76 /  40  60  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  76  52  74 /  60  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  48  67  46  63 /  60  70  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  53  69  51  66 /  60  80  60  70
TAOS............................  55  83  52  81 /  60  30  50  60
MORA............................  53  79  52  72 /  60  60  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  91  58  86 /  40  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  63  85  62  78 /  50  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  89  61  83 /  60  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  92  67  87 /  50  40  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  94  68  88 /  50  20  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  68  97  66  90 /  40  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  70  98  68  92 /  50  30  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  70  96  67  90 /  30  20  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  68  96  67  91 /  50  40  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  68  97  68  91 /  10  30  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  88  59  82 /  60  50  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  62  91  60  85 /  50  50  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  90  53  82 /  40  40  40  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  86  57  77 /  50  50  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  88  60  80 /  10  40  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  91  62  85 /   5  20  30  50
RUIDOSO.........................  59  83  57  77 /   5  50  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  59  79  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  56  83  55  78 /  30  60  60  60
SPRINGER........................  59  85  57  80 /  30  60  60  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  81  53  74 /  40  70  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  87  61  82 /  30  30  50  40
ROY.............................  60  85  59  78 /  40  50  60  60
CONCHAS.........................  67  95  65  85 /  40  40  60  60
SANTA ROSA......................  65  94  64  84 /  30  40  60  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  94  65  86 /  30  50  60  50
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  64  84 /  10  40  50  30
PORTALES........................  66  91  66  86 /  10  40  50  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  93  66  85 /  10  30  50  40
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  91 /   5  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  84 /   5  30  40  30
ELK.............................  60  84  59  78 /   5  40  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012118
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ON TAP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL
FOCUS WEST OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE MOISTURE BEGINS
INCREASING FROM THE EAST. STORMS WILL STEER SOUTHWARD AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DECREASE
THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND INCREASE TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE VERY SLOW WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL. BY NEXT
WEEK... THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DELIVER A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED 595DM H5 PRESSURE RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
BASIN SE ACROSS NM INTO WEST TX. THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A
SINUOUS MOISTURE STREAM ROUNDING THE HIGH WHILE DRY AIR IS
ENTRENCHED BENEATH THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE A MOIST BOUNDARY IS
OOZING SW ACROSS NE NM...WAITING TO FOCUS THE NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40
TONIGHT. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO THE SOUTH THRU FRIDAY WITH
THIS PATTERN RESULTING IN MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NE PLAINS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

BY FOURTH OF JULY...THE HIGH CENTER WEAKENS TO 590DM WHILE DRIFTING
EAST OVER NM. ORIGINALLY SATURDAY LOOKED TO BE LESS ACTIVE...HOWEVER
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 700MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING
EAST OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOIST INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS IN THIS VERY
WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING...BUT FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NM.

CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY IS LOWER AS THE
POSITION OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE. THE GFS HAS BEEN HOLDING STRONG ON DRIFTING THE HIGH TO
THE EAST AND ALLOWING A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON FLOW PATTERN FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER NM. THE LATEST RENDITION HAS THE HIGH OVERHEAD.
THE ECMWF WAS SHOWING THE HIGH BUILDING SW OF NM BUT NOW HAS IT TO
OUR EAST. EITHER WAY...SEVERAL NOTABLE BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
ARE EVIDENCED AT THE SURFACE WHILE OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW IS IN
PLACE OVER THE STATE. AT A MINIMUM...MOISTURE RECYCLING PROCESSES
WILL KEEP STORMS GOING AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN ALL OF NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE SUMMERTIME MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS SATURDAY...THEN MORE SQUARELY OVER NM SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND REACH
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY FRIDAY MORNING USHERING MOIST EASTERLY
AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CELLS FAVORING EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW LOCATIONS.

WHEN THE UPPER HIGH REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS AND NM FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...MODELS DEPICT A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME UNDER IT
ARCING NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN AREAS AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS WILL KEEP PWATS AROUND 1 INCH AND STORMS WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A CONTINUED RISK OF MINOR FLOODING IN GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING IN
AND BELOW BURN SCARS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL SPLIT THE UPPER HIGH INTO LOBES FORMING
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF NM MONDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT GIVING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS A GOOD SHOT AT WETTING
PRECIPITATION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH A MOISTURE RICH BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL AREAS.

ALL THIS MOISTURE WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO TREND DOWNWARD THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL OUT WEST TO
AS MUCH AS 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. NEAR
NORMAL READINGS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GIVE WAY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS CENTRAL AND EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD OR BETTER...EXCEPT FOR POCKETS OF
POOR VENTILATION OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY...NORTH CENTRAL AREAS
SUNDAY...NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY AND PROBABLY ALSO TUESDAY.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY SCT AFTN AND EVENING TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THESE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE S OR W...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E ACROSS NE AREAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS STORMY INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY LEADING TO WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS. 44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  95  64  92 /  30  30  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  88  50  86 /  40  30  30  40
CUBA............................  55  86  53  79 /  70  40  70  50
GALLUP..........................  58  90  56  88 /  40  30  40  40
EL MORRO........................  56  86  55  83 /  60  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  60  90  58  85 /  40  30  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  59  88  59  83 /  40  40  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  55  91  56  84 /  20  30  40  40
CHAMA...........................  50  79  49  77 /  60  70  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  62  86  61  80 /  60  50  60  50
PECOS...........................  58  84  56  76 /  40  60  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  76  52  74 /  60  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  48  67  46  63 /  60  70  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  53  69  51  66 /  60  80  60  70
TAOS............................  55  83  52  81 /  60  30  50  60
MORA............................  53  79  52  72 /  60  60  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  91  58  86 /  40  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  63  85  62  78 /  50  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  62  89  61  83 /  60  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  92  67  87 /  50  40  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  94  68  88 /  50  20  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  68  97  66  90 /  40  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  70  98  68  92 /  50  30  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  70  96  67  90 /  30  20  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  68  96  67  91 /  50  40  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  68  97  68  91 /  10  30  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  88  59  82 /  60  50  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  62  91  60  85 /  50  50  50  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  90  53  82 /  40  40  40  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  86  57  77 /  50  50  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  88  60  80 /  10  40  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  91  62  85 /   5  20  30  50
RUIDOSO.........................  59  83  57  77 /   5  50  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  59  79  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  56  83  55  78 /  30  60  60  60
SPRINGER........................  59  85  57  80 /  30  60  60  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  81  53  74 /  40  70  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  87  61  82 /  30  30  50  40
ROY.............................  60  85  59  78 /  40  50  60  60
CONCHAS.........................  67  95  65  85 /  40  40  60  60
SANTA ROSA......................  65  94  64  84 /  30  40  60  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  94  65  86 /  30  50  60  50
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  64  84 /  10  40  50  30
PORTALES........................  66  91  66  86 /  10  40  50  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  93  66  85 /  10  30  50  40
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  91 /   5  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  84 /   5  30  40  30
ELK.............................  60  84  59  78 /   5  40  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011823 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY SCT AFTN AND EVENING TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THESE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE S OR W...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E ACROSS NE AREAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS STORMY INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY LEADING TO WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011823 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY SCT AFTN AND EVENING TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THESE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE S OR W...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E ACROSS NE AREAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS STORMY INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY LEADING TO WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011823 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY SCT AFTN AND EVENING TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THESE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE S OR W...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E ACROSS NE AREAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS STORMY INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY LEADING TO WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011823 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1223 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAINLY SCT AFTN AND EVENING TS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. MOST OF THESE
WILL OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS...
CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE TOWARD THE S OR W...EXCEPT FOR
SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE E ACROSS NE AREAS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NE AREAS STORMY INTO THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. BETTER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
THURSDAY LEADING TO WETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAYS READINGS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011153 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NWWD TUESDAY EVENING...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO MAKE A RETURN TO NRN NM OVERNIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORM
MOTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION WITH STORMS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM MOVING EWD...STORMS OVER NW NM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT AND STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM MOVING
WWD. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
NLY/NWLY WIND MAXIMA MOVES THROUGH. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011153 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NWWD TUESDAY EVENING...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO MAKE A RETURN TO NRN NM OVERNIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORM
MOTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION WITH STORMS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM MOVING EWD...STORMS OVER NW NM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT AND STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM MOVING
WWD. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
NLY/NWLY WIND MAXIMA MOVES THROUGH. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011153 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NWWD TUESDAY EVENING...MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS ABLE TO MAKE A RETURN TO NRN NM OVERNIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A ROUND OF MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORM
MOTION WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION WITH STORMS OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM MOVING EWD...STORMS OVER NW NM WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOVEMENT AND STORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM MOVING
WWD. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
NLY/NWLY WIND MAXIMA MOVES THROUGH. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

33

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010905
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY
STEER SOUTH OF KFMN AND NORTH OF KGUP...BUT SOME INCLUSION WAS
MENTIONED IN TAF THROUGH 01/0900UTC. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  97  68  95  66 /  10  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  90  55  88  53 /  20  40  40  40
CUBA............................  89  58  86  56 /  40  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  96  60  90  58 /  30  60  40  40
EL MORRO........................  90  57  86  57 /  50  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  92  60  89  59 /  30  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  90  60  87  60 /  30  40  40  60
GLENWOOD........................  90  60  90  61 /  20  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  83  53  80  51 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  90  62  86  61 /  50  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  86  60  83  58 /  60  70  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  74  49  71  48 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  76  53  74  52 /  70  70  80  70
TAOS............................  86  56  84  54 /  30  40  30  60
MORA............................  82  56  79  55 /  60  80  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  95  61  91  60 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  88  63  86  61 /  40  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  63  89  62 /  20  40  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  94  69  92  67 /  20  60  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  71  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  70  94  68 /  10  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  96  69  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  69  95  68 /  10  30  30  50
RIO RANCHO......................  96  68  94  67 /  10  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  97  68  95  68 /   0  20  20  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  63  88  62 /  20  70  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  93  63  90  63 /  20  70  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  58  88  58 /  20  50  60  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  61  85  59 /  20  70  70  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  87  62 /   5  20  40  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  65  89  65 /   5  20  40  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  62  81  61 /   5  20  70  50
CAPULIN.........................  85  60  82  58 /  60  70  40  60
RATON...........................  88  59  84  57 /  60  60  30  60
SPRINGER........................  90  61  86  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  58  82  56 /  40  60  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  94  66  88  63 /  60  50  40  50
ROY.............................  91  63  86  61 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  99  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  96  67  92  66 /  20  30  30  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69  94  66 /  20  20  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  93  67  90  66 /  10  20  30  60
PORTALES........................  94  67  92  68 /   5  20  30  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  93  68 /  10  30  30  60
ROSWELL.........................  96  68  96  69 /   5  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  93  63  91  64 /   5  20  20  40
ELK.............................  86  63  85  62 /   5  20  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 010905
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY
STEER SOUTH OF KFMN AND NORTH OF KGUP...BUT SOME INCLUSION WAS
MENTIONED IN TAF THROUGH 01/0900UTC. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  97  68  95  66 /  10  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  90  55  88  53 /  20  40  40  40
CUBA............................  89  58  86  56 /  40  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  96  60  90  58 /  30  60  40  40
EL MORRO........................  90  57  86  57 /  50  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  92  60  89  59 /  30  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  90  60  87  60 /  30  40  40  60
GLENWOOD........................  90  60  90  61 /  20  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  83  53  80  51 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  90  62  86  61 /  50  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  86  60  83  58 /  60  70  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  74  49  71  48 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  76  53  74  52 /  70  70  80  70
TAOS............................  86  56  84  54 /  30  40  30  60
MORA............................  82  56  79  55 /  60  80  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  95  61  91  60 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  88  63  86  61 /  40  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  63  89  62 /  20  40  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  94  69  92  67 /  20  60  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  71  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  70  94  68 /  10  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  96  69  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  69  95  68 /  10  30  30  50
RIO RANCHO......................  96  68  94  67 /  10  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  97  68  95  68 /   0  20  20  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  63  88  62 /  20  70  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  93  63  90  63 /  20  70  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  58  88  58 /  20  50  60  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  61  85  59 /  20  70  70  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  87  62 /   5  20  40  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  65  89  65 /   5  20  40  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  62  81  61 /   5  20  70  50
CAPULIN.........................  85  60  82  58 /  60  70  40  60
RATON...........................  88  59  84  57 /  60  60  30  60
SPRINGER........................  90  61  86  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  58  82  56 /  40  60  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  94  66  88  63 /  60  50  40  50
ROY.............................  91  63  86  61 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  99  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  96  67  92  66 /  20  30  30  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69  94  66 /  20  20  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  93  67  90  66 /  10  20  30  60
PORTALES........................  94  67  92  68 /   5  20  30  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  93  68 /  10  30  30  60
ROSWELL.........................  96  68  96  69 /   5  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  93  63  91  64 /   5  20  20  40
ELK.............................  86  63  85  62 /   5  20  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010905
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY
STEER SOUTH OF KFMN AND NORTH OF KGUP...BUT SOME INCLUSION WAS
MENTIONED IN TAF THROUGH 01/0900UTC. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  97  68  95  66 /  10  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  90  55  88  53 /  20  40  40  40
CUBA............................  89  58  86  56 /  40  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  96  60  90  58 /  30  60  40  40
EL MORRO........................  90  57  86  57 /  50  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  92  60  89  59 /  30  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  90  60  87  60 /  30  40  40  60
GLENWOOD........................  90  60  90  61 /  20  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  83  53  80  51 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  90  62  86  61 /  50  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  86  60  83  58 /  60  70  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  74  49  71  48 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  76  53  74  52 /  70  70  80  70
TAOS............................  86  56  84  54 /  30  40  30  60
MORA............................  82  56  79  55 /  60  80  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  95  61  91  60 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  88  63  86  61 /  40  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  63  89  62 /  20  40  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  94  69  92  67 /  20  60  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  71  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  70  94  68 /  10  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  96  69  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  69  95  68 /  10  30  30  50
RIO RANCHO......................  96  68  94  67 /  10  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  97  68  95  68 /   0  20  20  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  63  88  62 /  20  70  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  93  63  90  63 /  20  70  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  58  88  58 /  20  50  60  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  61  85  59 /  20  70  70  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  87  62 /   5  20  40  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  65  89  65 /   5  20  40  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  62  81  61 /   5  20  70  50
CAPULIN.........................  85  60  82  58 /  60  70  40  60
RATON...........................  88  59  84  57 /  60  60  30  60
SPRINGER........................  90  61  86  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  58  82  56 /  40  60  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  94  66  88  63 /  60  50  40  50
ROY.............................  91  63  86  61 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  99  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  96  67  92  66 /  20  30  30  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69  94  66 /  20  20  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  93  67  90  66 /  10  20  30  60
PORTALES........................  94  67  92  68 /   5  20  30  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  93  68 /  10  30  30  60
ROSWELL.........................  96  68  96  69 /   5  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  93  63  91  64 /   5  20  20  40
ELK.............................  86  63  85  62 /   5  20  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 010905
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WETTING STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS AND A MORE
TRADITIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR HEAVIER STORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND LOWER AFTER ANOTHER
HOT DAY TODAY.  RECYCLING OF MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH WILL OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE
SLIGHTLY. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AS
WELL AS OOZE IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. THE PATTERN
APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY FOCUSING
STORMS ACROSS NC/NE AREAS LATER TODAY. A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. MODELS DEVELOP A MID
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION AND THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO TRAP MOISTURE WITHIN IT AND
MOST LIKELY CONTINUE CONVECTION WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER.

A MORE PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY/BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE THURSDAY AND HELP TO FOCUS EVEN MORE STORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE WILL BEGIN TO LOSE
ITS IDENTITY ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BUT MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVER THE AREA THUS FUELING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS THE START OF THE PERIOD WHEN HEAVY
RAINFALL BECOMES MORE CONCERNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AND NC AND QUITE POSSIBLY SW MTNS.
STRONGER TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THIS DAY
WITH WEAK SHEARING FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. COULD
SEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GO WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HIGHER END PWATS WILL TRANSITION INTO FRIDAY AND HELP FUEL ANOTHER
CROP OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE SOME
ACROSS THE EAST AND IS DEPICTED FAIRLY WELL BY THE NAM WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE BULLISH. IN DEFENSE OF THE GFS...THE STEERING FLOW FOR
THE STORMS IS MORE NW TO SE WHILE THE NAM IS NORTH TO SOUTH OR NE
TO SW. EITHER WAY...DUE TO THE FRONTAL INTRUSION THURSDAY...HAVE
TO THINK THE EAST WILL STABILIZE SOME. HYDRO ISSUES COULD VERY
WELL CONTINUE ON THIS DAY OVER THE MTNS AND HAVE TO THINK AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXISTS DUE TO SOME WEAK SHEERING WITHIN A
HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT. THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORMS OVERALL
LOOKS PRETTY WEAK.

MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT NOT BY MUCH AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER AS IT MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA. EASTERN AREAS
APPEAR TO HAVE LESSER CHANCES FOR STORM IMPACT...ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS MESSAGE THE
PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY GOOD.

THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR MIGRATE JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS ALSO
CATCHING UP WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND JIVES WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW A MORE DISTINCT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PLUME SURGING NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO AND HELPING REPLENISH
MOISTURE LOST DURING THE WEEKEND. EITHER WAY YOU SLICE
IT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH AND
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULDNT IMPEDE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
WETTING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. CONVECTIVE VORTICES TRANSLATING
OUT OF MEXICO WILL ALSO HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR WESTERN AREAS. IT IS
SUSPECTED THE UPPER HIGH WILL MIGRATE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND START TO LOWER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY RETURNING TO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS
MORNING. PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. WITH LARGE-SCALE LIFT IN THE FORM OF INCREASING NW FLOW
ALOFT TONIGHT...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT CENTRAL AND NORTH. DRY AIR ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY UNTIL THURSDAY. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING AN ACTIVE DAY AREAWIDE THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LIGHT STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE HEAVY RAIN A
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE UPPER HIGH INCHES SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS
FRIDAY...A POCKET OF DRY AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. STILL PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET
STORMS GOING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY LOOKS
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OVER ALL MOUNTAIN RANGES IN
THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY...FORCING THE UPPER
HIGH EWD OVER EASTERN NM SUNDAY AND OVER WEST TX MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CLASSIC SOUTHERLY MONSOON PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.


33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY
STEER SOUTH OF KFMN AND NORTH OF KGUP...BUT SOME INCLUSION WAS
MENTIONED IN TAF THROUGH 01/0900UTC. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  97  68  95  66 /  10  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  90  55  88  53 /  20  40  40  40
CUBA............................  89  58  86  56 /  40  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  96  60  90  58 /  30  60  40  40
EL MORRO........................  90  57  86  57 /  50  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  92  60  89  59 /  30  50  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  90  60  87  60 /  30  40  40  60
GLENWOOD........................  90  60  90  61 /  20  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  83  53  80  51 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  90  62  86  61 /  50  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  86  60  83  58 /  60  70  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  83  55  79  53 /  50  60  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  74  49  71  48 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  76  53  74  52 /  70  70  80  70
TAOS............................  86  56  84  54 /  30  40  30  60
MORA............................  82  56  79  55 /  60  80  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  95  61  91  60 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  88  63  86  61 /  40  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  92  63  89  62 /  20  40  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  94  69  92  67 /  20  60  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  95  71  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  96  70  94  68 /  10  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  96  69  93  69 /  10  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  96  69  95  68 /  10  30  30  50
RIO RANCHO......................  96  68  94  67 /  10  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  97  68  95  68 /   0  20  20  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  63  88  62 /  20  70  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  93  63  90  63 /  20  70  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  91  58  88  58 /  20  50  60  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  89  61  85  59 /  20  70  70  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  62  87  62 /   5  20  40  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  90  65  89  65 /   5  20  40  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  62  81  61 /   5  20  70  50
CAPULIN.........................  85  60  82  58 /  60  70  40  60
RATON...........................  88  59  84  57 /  60  60  30  60
SPRINGER........................  90  61  86  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  58  82  56 /  40  60  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  94  66  88  63 /  60  50  40  50
ROY.............................  91  63  86  61 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  99  68  94  66 /  20  30  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  96  67  92  66 /  20  30  30  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  98  69  94  66 /  20  20  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  93  67  90  66 /  10  20  30  60
PORTALES........................  94  67  92  68 /   5  20  30  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  68  93  68 /  10  30  30  60
ROSWELL.........................  96  68  96  69 /   5  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  93  63  91  64 /   5  20  20  40
ELK.............................  86  63  85  62 /   5  20  40  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010536 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY
STEER SOUTH OF KFMN AND NORTH OF KGUP...BUT SOME INCLUSION WAS
MENTIONED IN TAF THROUGH 01/0900UTC. GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL
OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN NORTHEAST PARTS OF
THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302358
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 302358
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302358
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302358
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER HAS GRACED NEW MEXICO TODAY AS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND THE ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD.
A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. GUSTY WINDS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARD ALONG WITH BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS. A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERALL...MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WILL OBSERVE A BIG UPTICK IN
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL CERTAINLY BE IN
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 302109
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH LESS STORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. A
FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP THROUGH TONIGHT FAVORING NORTHERN AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO RAMP BACK UP STARTING
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY NUDGES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND REPLENISHES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREAWIDE. SLOW
MOVING AND HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE THE RULE.
THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET SO FAR TODAY WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE HIGH REALLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR
STILL SUGGESTS THAT A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRES
AND FAR WESTERN NM THIS AFTN. IT ALSO DEVELOPS A FEW STORMS ACROSS
NW NM OVERNIGHT LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING
THE UPPER HIGH.

THE UPPER HIGH ELONGATES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AND SOME BETTER
MOISTURE LOOKS TO ROTATE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM.
ADDITIONALLY... A BOUNDARY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NE BY MID
MORNING. UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS ACROSS THE SANGRES. STORM MOTION LOOKS TO BE EXTREMELY
LIGHT...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW...IF NOT
STATIONARY...STORMS. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS.

STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD A BIT. THOUGH THE MODELS DISAGREE A BIT
ON TIMING... A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
SOMETIME THURSDAY AND PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
USHERED BACK INTO THE PLAINS AND WILL SQUEAK THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTDVD. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MODELS ARE PROGGING PWATS TO COME BACK UP TO OVER 1 INCH BY
THURSDAY AFTN MOST AREAS...AND STAYING THAT WAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WITH STORM MOTIONS REMAINING WEAK...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL
POSE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. ALSO JUST LIKE RECENT
DAYS...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO TRANSITION BACK OVER NM OR AT LEAST THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE PERHAPS SHIFTING
EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...WEEKEND STORM COVERAGE MAY COME
DOWN SOME WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR STORM. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY BE
LEAST FAVORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEN IF THE HIGH DOES SHIFT
EASTWARD...A MORE TRADITIONAL MONSOON TAP MAY BE IN THE WORKS FOR
AZ AND WESTERN NM. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A HOT AND DRY AIRMASS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE UPPER
RIDGE IS KEEPING A LID ON STORMS COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS COVERAGE TODAY WILL LEAD INTO CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED SURFACE WINDS THRU
SUNRISE. A NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND UP
JUST A TICK WITH MAX TEMPS REMAINING NEAR STEADY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EASE ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA WHILE MOISTURE
CONTINUES SEEPING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY. GUIDANCE EVEN
ADVERTISES STORMS MERGING INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HANGING STRONG.
BURN SCAR AREAS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER THE GUN FOR FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL. MAX TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITIES UP QUITE A BIT
BOTH DAYS.

A TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD THEN TRANSITIONS EAST OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND WARMING TEMPS. A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
AXIS FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS LOOKS VERY CLOSE TO A CLIMATOLOGICAL PATTERN FOR EARLY
JULY WITH LITTLE CHANGE ADVERTISED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME MOISTURE RECYCLING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH MTS WHERE A FEW
-SHRA/TSRA W/ GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH TO SW BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN
AFT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS KICKING OFF A RANDOM -TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  65  97  66  96 /  10  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  54  91  53  88 /  30  20  40  40
CUBA............................  57  89  57  85 /  20  40  60  60
GALLUP..........................  58  93  58  91 /  10  20  40  30
EL MORRO........................  56  90  56  87 /  20  40  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  92  59  90 /  10  20  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  90  59  87 /  20  30  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  59  91  58  90 /  20  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  50  83  51  81 /  30  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  90  63  86 /  20  50  50  60
PECOS...........................  58  87  59  83 /  20  60  70  80
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  81  54  78 /  20  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  48  74  46  73 /  30  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  52  75  51  73 /  30  70  70  80
TAOS............................  53  85  54  83 /  10  30  40  40
MORA............................  55  82  55  79 /  20  60  80  80
ESPANOLA........................  60  95  60  91 /  10  20  40  40
SANTA FE........................  61  88  62  86 /  10  40  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  92  63  89 /  10  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  94  68  91 /   5  20  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  96  70  93 /   5  10  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  95  68  94 /   5  10  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  96  69  93 /   5  10  50  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  97  68  95 /   0  10  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  98  68  94 /   5  10  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  66  98  68  96 /   0   5  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  61  91  62  87 /   5  20  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  62  94  63  90 /   5  20  70  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  91  57  88 /   5  20  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  89  61  85 /   5  20  70  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  89  62  86 /   5  10  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  90  65  90 /   5  10  30  40
RUIDOSO.........................  58  83  62  81 /   5  20  30  60
CAPULIN.........................  58  84  59  82 /  10  60  70  60
RATON...........................  57  87  57  84 /  10  60  60  60
SPRINGER........................  57  89  58  86 /  10  60  60  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  86  56  81 /  10  40  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  93  65  87 /  10  60  50  30
ROY.............................  61  90  62  85 /   5  60  60  50
CONCHAS.........................  66  98  68  93 /   5  20  50  50
SANTA ROSA......................  64  96  66  92 /   0  20  40  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  98  68  93 /   5  20  30  50
CLOVIS..........................  64  93  66  89 /   0  10  20  40
PORTALES........................  65  94  66  91 /   0   5  10  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  95  67  92 /   0  10  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  96 /   0   5  10  10
PICACHO.........................  60  93  63  91 /   0   5  10  30
ELK.............................  59  86  62  84 /   0   5  20  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301745 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME MOISTURE RECYCLING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH MTS WHERE A FEW
-SHRA/TSRA W/ GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH TO SW BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN
AFT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS KICKING OFF A RANDOM -TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301745 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER TODAY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND THE
ASSOCIATED DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS TAKES HOLD. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME MOISTURE RECYCLING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH MTS WHERE A FEW
-SHRA/TSRA W/ GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH TO SW BEFORE TAPERING OFF THIS EVENING. A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NE PLAINS VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EVEN
AFT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS KICKING OFF A RANDOM -TSRA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND INTO EXTREME EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. KROW
AND KCVN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. BY MID DAY OR AROUND
19Z...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. LOOK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS THEREAFTER...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND INTO EXTREME EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. KROW
AND KCVN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. BY MID DAY OR AROUND
19Z...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. LOOK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS THEREAFTER...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND INTO EXTREME EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. KROW
AND KCVN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. BY MID DAY OR AROUND
19Z...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. LOOK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS THEREAFTER...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS THIS MORNING AND FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH IFR TO
MVFR CIGS WILL EXPAND INTO EXTREME EASTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN
ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SCOUR OUT. KROW
AND KCVN ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED. BY MID DAY OR AROUND
19Z...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. INDIVIDUAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOWS. LOOK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS THEREAFTER...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP IN THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DOWNTREND IN THE MONSOON WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM EAST TO WEST AND FUEL AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD EXASPERATE
MOIST CONDITIONS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER DURING THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED
WITHIN THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL ALOFT WILL RECYCLE OUT IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CREEP UPWARDS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
AT A DOWNTREND IN CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPT OF NC/NE AREAS DUE TO
THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LAYER RH FORECASTS DEFINITELY
POINT TOWARDS ATMOSPHERIC DRYING TODAY AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

SOME MOISTENING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS SHOULD OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY AND LEAD TO AN INCREASED
COVERAGE OF STORMS FAVORING THE NORTHERN MTNS AND ADJACENT
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS/PLAINS. THE INITIAL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
HELP TO CONCENTRATE STORM ACTIVITY AS IT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD. A
REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THE RISE IN SURFACE
DEWPOINTS/PWATS ON THURSDAY. BASED ON THE UPPER HIGH
POSITION...WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTUBATIONS SHOULD ALSO TRANSLATE
AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS
AND HELP PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL FORCING AS WELL. EITHER WAY...MODELS
HAVE BEEN BULLISH FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR AND UPTICK IN
CONVECTION LATE WED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT THE NORTHERN
MTNS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH THE SW MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. STEERING FLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE PRETTY WEAK DURING
THIS PERIOD AND HELP TO INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE MID
LEVEL HIGH CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

SIGNIFICANT STORM ACTIVITY/COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN INTO FRIDAY DUE
TO ABOVE NORMAL PWATS/ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE HIGH AND GENERAL INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
BE A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD ALSO DRAW
A BIT CLOSER TO THE STATE.

MODELS REMAIN BULLISH FOR LESS CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD RISE
BECAUSE PORTIONS OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS PROJECTED TO TRANSLATE
OVER THE STATE. A DRIER MID LEVEL AIRMASS MAY ALSO WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EITHER WAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS TREND
FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY
THE COLD FRONTS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE FORM OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED
STORMS. THE FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FLOODERS WILL
ALSO LOWER THUS LOWERING THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MTNS
SHOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY IS STILL A WILDCARD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT INTRUSION ACROSS THE NE THIRD WITH LASTING IMPACTS
INTO TUESDAY. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH FOR THAT SCENARIO BUT
TRIES TO DRAW ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO. EITHER
WAY...PWAT VALUES COULD VERY WELL BUMP UP SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND HELP FUEL A LITTLE STRONGER COVERAGE OF STORMS. THE MID LEVEL
HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THIS MEANS VERY LIGHT TO ERRATIC STEERING FLOWS FOR THE
STORMS.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE STORM PATTERN SHOULD QUICKLY RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE STORM COVERAGE WILL BE NOTABLY LESS
TODAY WITH CELLS INITIATING OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD WHERE MANY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS RISING...THE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BREACH CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES BY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE A
FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL BE FOUND IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEYS WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...TURNING TO MORE OF A
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION IN MANY PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SWATH OF BETTER MOISTURE WILL THEN TRANSLATE
SOUTHWARD INTO NM WEDNESDAY WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
STATE. SOME UPSLOPE FLOW WILL HIT THE EASTERN FACES OF THE
SANGRES...HELPING STORMS DEVELOP...BUT STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
SHOULD HELP INITIATE STORMS OVER THE REMAINING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES WOULD AGAIN
EXCEED NORMAL BY A FEW DEGREES.

MOISTURE BECOMES MORE ENTRENCHED OVER NM INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINING THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MUDDLED ON THE
EXACT EVOLUTION OF THIS EASTERLY FLOW...BUT A POTENTIAL SECONDARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY COULD ALSO ENTER NM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...KEEPING HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND ELEVATED RH GOING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES
THURSDAY AND A FEW MORE DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...STORM COVERAGE STAYS PRONOUNCED DAY BY DAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WETTING RAINFALL POTENTIAL RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY.

BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF MORE DIRECTLY OVER NM. THIS MIGHT TEMPORARILY LIMIT STORM
COVERAGE...BUT A GENTLE NUDGE TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE ADVERTISED
WHICH WOULD START TO REINTRODUCE MOISTURE VIA A SUBTROPICAL TAP
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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