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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290404 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
904 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TWEAK QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION EVENT BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MODEL PWAT FORECAST. THE END RESULT WAS MORE QPF AND GREATER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE PEAKS AND HIGHLANDS. LATEST
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
HERE AT KABQ LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SNOW LEVEL
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE THE MEAN ELEVATION OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AND MELTING IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT IN THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEARS LIMITED TO HIGH UP ON THE WEST
MESA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THU...THOUGH SOME
CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE...ESPEC
SW THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z OR SO CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY IN SPOTS AT LEAST...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GUP TO ROW. SOME HIGHER MT OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE IN THE DAY THU. IN ADDITION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THU. SOME OF THE STRONGER
GAP WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ABQ WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30-35KTS
MIDDAY THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD 00Z FRI.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS65 KABQ 290404 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
904 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TWEAK QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION EVENT BASED ON LATEST WPC GUIDANCE AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MODEL PWAT FORECAST. THE END RESULT WAS MORE QPF AND GREATER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE PEAKS AND HIGHLANDS. LATEST
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE
HERE AT KABQ LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SNOW LEVEL
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE THE MEAN ELEVATION OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
AND MELTING IS LIKELY. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT IN THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEARS LIMITED TO HIGH UP ON THE WEST
MESA AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THU...THOUGH SOME
CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE...ESPEC
SW THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z OR SO CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY IN SPOTS AT LEAST...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GUP TO ROW. SOME HIGHER MT OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE IN THE DAY THU. IN ADDITION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THU. SOME OF THE STRONGER
GAP WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ABQ WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30-35KTS
MIDDAY THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD 00Z FRI.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 290047 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THU...THOUGH SOME
CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE...ESPEC
SW THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z OR SO CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY IN SPOTS AT LEAST...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GUP TO ROW. SOME HIGHER MT OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE IN THE DAY THU. IN ADDITION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THU. SOME OF THE STRONGER
GAP WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ABQ WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30-35KTS
MIDDAY THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD 00Z FRI.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 290047 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THU...THOUGH SOME
CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE...ESPEC
SW THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z OR SO CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY IN SPOTS AT LEAST...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GUP TO ROW. SOME HIGHER MT OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE IN THE DAY THU. IN ADDITION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THU. SOME OF THE STRONGER
GAP WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ABQ WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30-35KTS
MIDDAY THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD 00Z FRI.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 290047 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THU...THOUGH SOME
CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE...ESPEC
SW THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z OR SO CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY IN SPOTS AT LEAST...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GUP TO ROW. SOME HIGHER MT OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE IN THE DAY THU. IN ADDITION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THU. SOME OF THE STRONGER
GAP WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ABQ WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30-35KTS
MIDDAY THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD 00Z FRI.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 290047 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 19Z THU...THOUGH SOME
CLOUD DECK WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TO A SIGNIFICANT DEGREE...ESPEC
SW THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. AFTER ROUGHLY 19Z OR SO CIGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORY IN SPOTS AT LEAST...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM GUP TO ROW. SOME HIGHER MT OBSCURATIONS MAY DEVELOP AS
WELL NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE LATE IN THE DAY THU. IN ADDITION
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE PLAINS
BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 04Z THIS EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z THU. SOME OF THE STRONGER
GAP WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR ABQ WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 30-35KTS
MIDDAY THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD 00Z FRI.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 282146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME LOWER
OF CLOUD DECKS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING TODAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KCQC.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTS BY THURS MORNING. GAP
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR KABQ...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  52  35  44 /   0   5  40  60
DULCE...........................  22  51  24  44 /   5  10  40  70
CUBA............................  25  48  27  42 /   0   5  40  70
GALLUP..........................  27  54  34  43 /   0   5  50  70
EL MORRO........................  25  50  29  39 /   0  10  60  80
GRANTS..........................  22  50  30  39 /   0  10  50  70
QUEMADO.........................  27  54  33  44 /   0  20  60  70
GLENWOOD........................  37  64  38  50 /   0  20  70  80
CHAMA...........................  19  46  20  40 /   5   5  30  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  32  46  28  37 /   0   5  40  70
PECOS...........................  31  43  25  34 /   0   5  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  42  19  38 /   5  10  20  60
RED RIVER.......................  20  38  20  34 /   0  10  30  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  15  39  18  36 /   0  10  30  60
TAOS............................  23  45  24  38 /   5   5  30  60
MORA............................  28  41  24  36 /   0  10  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  27  51  28  42 /   0   5  30  60
SANTA FE........................  31  47  28  37 /   0   5  40  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  49  27  38 /   0   5  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  34  50  31  41 /   0   5  50  70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  52  32  43 /   0   5  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  31  53  30  43 /   0   0  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  53  30  44 /   0   5  40  60
LOS LUNAS.......................  31  54  32  45 /   0   0  40  60
RIO RANCHO......................  35  52  32  43 /   0   5  40  60
SOCORRO.........................  34  54  33  46 /   0   5  40  60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  30  48  28  38 /   0  10  50  80
TIJERAS.........................  31  50  29  40 /   0   5  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  25  47  24  37 /   0   5  50  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  44  23  32 /   0   5  50  80
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  47  28  38 /   0   5  60  80
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  52  31  43 /   0  10  50  70
RUIDOSO.........................  29  47  24  40 /   0  10  60  90
CAPULIN.........................  27  41  24  37 /   0  10  10  50
RATON...........................  29  43  25  39 /   0  10  20  50
SPRINGER........................  27  44  24  39 /   0  10  20  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  27  42  21  34 /   0  10  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  33  48  27  39 /   0   5   5  40
ROY.............................  27  45  24  35 /   0   5  10  50
CONCHAS.........................  34  51  30  38 /   0   0  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  34  51  30  39 /   0   5  30  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  35  52  30  39 /   0   0  20  50
CLOVIS..........................  35  51  29  37 /   0   0  20  60
PORTALES........................  36  53  30  38 /   0   0  30  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  37  52  31  39 /   0   0  30  70
ROSWELL.........................  37  54  33  38 /   0   5  40  60
PICACHO.........................  36  51  30  38 /   0  10  50  70
ELK.............................  34  48  28  38 /   0  20  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 282146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
246 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE IN FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS BLASTING THROUGH GAPS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A MAJOR WEST COAST
STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD DAYTIME RAIN
AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW WILL CHANGE OVER TO AREAS OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT NEW MEXICO IMPACT OVER SEVERAL DAYS. WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BLASTING INTO NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...RAIN
AND SNOW COVERAGE WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE WEEKEND WRAPS UP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BREEZY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS QUICK HITTER DISTURBANCE SLIPS RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AND PRODUCES SOME GUSTY WINDS ON THE
WAY THROUGH. SURFACE PRESSURE GENERALLY PROVIDING A WEAK
CONFIGURATION BETWEEN SURFACE DOME NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...AND THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALL THE WAY OUT
TO FRIDAY OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO WELL
OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL DRIFT TO A
LINE FROM THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTAL
WATERS AND NEAR NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY EVENING.
PATTERN WILL PUT SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO...WITH
SIZABLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC TAP MOVING INTO THE STATE. TROUGH
WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH CLOSED LOW DEEPENING TO THE BOTTOM OVER THE YUMA
AREA OF WESTERN ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO REMAINING IN A BROAD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH KEEPS MOVING MOISTURE AND STORM DYNAMICS INTO
THE STATE. AS STORM CORE WEAKENS MODESTLY...STORM CENTER WILL
DRIFT SOUTH WITH TROUGH FLOPPING POSITIVE FROM CENTER OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND TROUGH AXIS POINTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...TROUGH AXIS WILL SIMPLY TRANSLATE SOUTHWARD...AS RIDGE
FROM CORE OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WIND UP THE WEEKEND. WITH TROUGH CLOSED LOW DRIFTING
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY EARLY TUESDAY...A MORE
STANDARDIZED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL WORK INTO NEW MEXICO NORTH
OF THE STORM LYING TO THE SOUTH. STORM WILL SHEAR ACROSS THE TEXAS
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK...ALLOWING CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO.
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BUCKLE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THURSDAY AND DROP COLD PUSH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO NORTHWEST CANADA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS WHILE
REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...COOLER CONDITIONS IN GENERAL WITH 20S AND 30S IN FOR
LOWS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WILL RUN IN
THE MID 30S...ABOVE FREEZING...WITH DIPS BELOW FREEZING MOST
EVERYPLACE ELSE. GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND BEGIN SOME
EASTERLY BREEZES THROUGH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROPICAL PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM...BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KANSAS WILL ANCHOR
BROAD INTRUSION OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO THE TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY...AND LEAVE MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO 2 TO 8 DEGREES
BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE WEST. FIRST PUSH OF
TROPICAL STORM FLOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF NEW
MEXICO BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAPID EXPANSION ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SPOTS BY EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. EVENING STARTS WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTH AND
WEST...AND SNOWFALL PROGRESS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL
REMAIN IN PLAY FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WESTWARD TO THE
ARIZONA LINE AS SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE MOVING TO THE IMPERIAL COUNTY DESERTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA..AND ADJACENT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DIFFLUENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN
SOLIDLY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS EASTBOUND COLD FRONT WILL LIE FROM
SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
COUNTRY...AND SURFACE LOW PARKS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND RUNNING CLOSER TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE WEST. TOTAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT UNDERWAY FOR ALL BUT THE
EXTREME EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND SHOWERS WILL RUN WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED COVERAGE IN THOSE AREAS AS EVERYPLACE ALL GETS A
SIGNIFICANT DOUSING OF RAIN AND SNOW. WIDESPREAD SNOW FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE AND EXPAND IN AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GRADUAL
REDUCTION IN SURFACE WIND SPEEDS EASING THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR SATURDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE PHOENIX AREA IN CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW ALL DAY SATURDAY...BEFORE
CONDITIONS START TO REDUCE VERY GRADUALLY IN INTENSITY HEADING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURES...WITH DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EAST...AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ON
THE COLD SIDE OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY...AS STALLED COLD FRONT BECOMES WEAK.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STORM CORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN
SONORA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SUNDAY...AS NEXT COLD BLAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES DOMINATES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. BREEZES CONTINUING
MONDAY...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
KEEPS TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM
ALOFT WILL PUSH RIDGE FORM THE EAST PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS ALL OF
NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...WITH FLOW ALOFT SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
ON TUESDAY...AND SURFACE WINDS PICKING UP NORTHWEST DIRECTIONS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
DOMINATES THE SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS. VERY MODEST WARNING TREND
WILL BRING MOST SPOTS TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER WAY OF EARLY
FEBRUARY NORMALS OVER NEW MEXICO BY TUESDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TURBULENT FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DROPS IN
DEW POINTS...NOTABLY AT THE TUCUMCARI AIRPORT WHERE THE 20Z OB HIT 3
DEGREES. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD EASE THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AND THE LEE SIDE TROUGH MOVE FARTHER EAST. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST PLAINS
TONIGHT...PROVIDING COOLER AIR AND A WIND SHIFT. THE FRONT WILL
REACH AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE BELOW CANYONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN THURSDAY DUE TO THE FRONT AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...BECOMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND BELOW NORMAL
EAST. THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION
RATES FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AS POOR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME COLDER AND WETTER LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE STATE ALONG
WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG
ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE ENTIRE STATE...WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PRETTY HEFTY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE IDENTIFYING PRECIPITATION TYPE...WITH BATTLING
WARM MOIST AIR ALOFT AND COLD LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING SNOW LEVELS STARTING VERY HIGH FRIDAY...THINK
ABOVE 9000 TO 9500 FEET...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS COULD SEE SNOW
EARLIER. DESPITE THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL
NM. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR
TERRAIN WITHIN ZONE 109 WHERE THE LACK OF COLDER SURFACE AIR MAY
CAUSE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXES THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE OTHER ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD BE FLOODING
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ON AN
EXISTENT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE AN
ISSUE AS CURRENT SNOW PACKS ARE LOW ENOUGH IN AREAS OF ANTICIPATED
RAIN TO PREVENT LARGER CONCERN. PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AS HIGH TEMPERATURES BECOME BELOW
NORMAL WEST AND WELL BELOW NORMAL EAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF AND DIVE WELL SOUTH OF NM SUNDAY
AND GENERALLY END ITS IMPACT ON NM BY MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK....NOTABLY VENTILATION RATES. MODELS ARE COMING IN LINE TO
DEPICT A TRANSITION TO MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND...BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...AND VENTILATION RATES WILL BECOME
FAIR TO GOOD FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MODELS BEING TO
DIVERGE TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK PERIOD...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY AS IT KEEPS A POTENTIAL
MID WEEK DISTURBANCE FARTHER NORTH BEFORE SLOWLY TRANSITIONING TO A
RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH WOULD PUT A QUICK
END TO IMPROVED VENT RATES. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HAS THE MID WEEK
DISTURBANCE IMPACTING NORTHEAST NM WITH RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP VENT RATES AT MANAGEABLE LEVELS.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME LOWER
OF CLOUD DECKS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING TODAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KCQC.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTS BY THURS MORNING. GAP
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR KABQ...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  52  35  44 /   0   5  40  60
DULCE...........................  22  51  24  44 /   5  10  40  70
CUBA............................  25  48  27  42 /   0   5  40  70
GALLUP..........................  27  54  34  43 /   0   5  50  70
EL MORRO........................  25  50  29  39 /   0  10  60  80
GRANTS..........................  22  50  30  39 /   0  10  50  70
QUEMADO.........................  27  54  33  44 /   0  20  60  70
GLENWOOD........................  37  64  38  50 /   0  20  70  80
CHAMA...........................  19  46  20  40 /   5   5  30  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  32  46  28  37 /   0   5  40  70
PECOS...........................  31  43  25  34 /   0   5  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  42  19  38 /   5  10  20  60
RED RIVER.......................  20  38  20  34 /   0  10  30  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  15  39  18  36 /   0  10  30  60
TAOS............................  23  45  24  38 /   5   5  30  60
MORA............................  28  41  24  36 /   0  10  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  27  51  28  42 /   0   5  30  60
SANTA FE........................  31  47  28  37 /   0   5  40  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  49  27  38 /   0   5  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  34  50  31  41 /   0   5  50  70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  52  32  43 /   0   5  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  31  53  30  43 /   0   0  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  53  30  44 /   0   5  40  60
LOS LUNAS.......................  31  54  32  45 /   0   0  40  60
RIO RANCHO......................  35  52  32  43 /   0   5  40  60
SOCORRO.........................  34  54  33  46 /   0   5  40  60
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  30  48  28  38 /   0  10  50  80
TIJERAS.........................  31  50  29  40 /   0   5  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  25  47  24  37 /   0   5  50  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  44  23  32 /   0   5  50  80
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  47  28  38 /   0   5  60  80
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  52  31  43 /   0  10  50  70
RUIDOSO.........................  29  47  24  40 /   0  10  60  90
CAPULIN.........................  27  41  24  37 /   0  10  10  50
RATON...........................  29  43  25  39 /   0  10  20  50
SPRINGER........................  27  44  24  39 /   0  10  20  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  27  42  21  34 /   0  10  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  33  48  27  39 /   0   5   5  40
ROY.............................  27  45  24  35 /   0   5  10  50
CONCHAS.........................  34  51  30  38 /   0   0  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  34  51  30  39 /   0   5  30  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  35  52  30  39 /   0   0  20  50
CLOVIS..........................  35  51  29  37 /   0   0  20  60
PORTALES........................  36  53  30  38 /   0   0  30  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  37  52  31  39 /   0   0  30  70
ROSWELL.........................  37  54  33  38 /   0   5  40  60
PICACHO.........................  36  51  30  38 /   0  10  50  70
ELK.............................  34  48  28  38 /   0  20  60  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ507-510>519-522>525-527.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 281741 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME LOWER
OF CLOUD DECKS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING TODAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KCQC.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTS BY THURS MORNING. GAP
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR KABQ...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING SEASONAL AVERAGES...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL PLUNGE INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHORT OF NORMAL OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT AT
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE THAT TICKLES THE FANCY OF ANY TRUE WEATHER GEEK.
BUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY A FINAL ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S LOW WORKED INTO NEVADA...AND HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST AS AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NM MOUNTAINS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL HIT THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...GIVING A
BOOKEND ON THE RECENT STINT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ORIENT ITSELF NORTH OF NM...GIVING
MANY LOCATIONS A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THURSDAY UNFOLDS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHILE
DRIVING A GAP/CANYON WIND THROUGH MANY CENTRAL AREAS PRONE TO THIS
SCENARIO OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT...WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN
KEPT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS AND OTHER
FAVORED GAP/CANYON WIND LOCALES...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND REVISED AS NEEDED. PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BEGIN
TAKING DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY...DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY LATE THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
STILL HAVE ITS AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL JUST BE STARTING TO ARRIVE INTO NM.

AS THURSDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW
OVER THE SAN DIEGO/TIJUANA VICINITY WITH A HEALTHY TAP INTO DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAKING PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ALREADY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM NASA SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUICY PWATS OF
1.8 INCHES IN THIS SECTOR.. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED
AS IT TREKS OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND...AM VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AND EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO NM. IN FACT
THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.65 INCH
OVER CENTRAL NM BY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS VERY HIGH...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY THE H7 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE AT ONLY 0 TO -1C OVER MUCH OF THE GILA...LIKELY
RELEGATING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET
OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SANGRES/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT THE ONSET OF
HEFTIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED BY 12-18 HOURS THERE. MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW WITH RAIN...AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPEDING THE WET BULB EFFECT. PRECIPITATION SHADOW MAY
BE IN EFFECT FOR ABQ METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FADE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE OVERCOME
THE EAST WIND.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE FULLY
UNDERWAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLUGGISHLY EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/SONORA
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
NM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HOSE CONTINUING TO SATURATE NM. CONFIDENCE
IN STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CHALLENGES WILL BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN EXTENT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE
SOME SNOW HAVE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING THROUGH COOLER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES. INABILITY
FOR PROFILES TO WET BULB BELOW FREEZING COULD HAMPER MANY EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THUS...SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO EARLY MORNINGS...BUT WILL LIKELY MELT/SETTLE
AS RAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

INTO SATURDAY THE LOW JOGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN WAS
ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF A
CANADIAN CLIPPER. PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NM...HOWEVER THE STEADINESS AND
HEAVINESS MIGHT DECLINE A BIT. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER
LOOKS TO WIN OUT...SHOVING THE LOW BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO...AND ESSENTIALLY DRYING NM OUT CONSIDERABLY IN
COOLER/DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL END THE EVENT A BIT SOONER
THAN WAS BELIEVED TO BE THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NONETHELESS A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION WET AND SNOWY PERIOD FOR THE STATE.

THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BUCKLING TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH. NORTHERN
ZONES MIGHT BE SKIMMED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF IT LOOKS TO BYPASS NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FAR NORTH...THEN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...SO COLD
AIR...OR LACK OF...WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ASSOCIATE SOME DRIER DEW POINTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE FOR THIS ISN/T OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM OBS
JUST YET. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA...SO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO INHERITED DEW POINT GRIDS. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AFFECT SNOW LEVELS BEFORE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV MAY BE SUSTAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING CONSISTENT WITH
THE WIND STARTING SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT SO MUCH WHEN IT
WOULD SLACK OFF...THE ECMWF TERMINATING IT FASTER...AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO IT LONGER INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT BY THEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
LIFT THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT THE STRONGER NW
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHUNTS IT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW LAST GASP SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY THEN DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES REMAIN FAIR TO POOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...AND IMPROVE SOME THURSDAY. POOR RATES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY. A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR RATES ANTICIPATED MONDAY
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY IN A WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH REGIME.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 281741 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAF PERIOD...THOUGH SOME LOWER
OF CLOUD DECKS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SW TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF AREA. LEE
SIDE TROUGHING TODAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THIS AFTN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTS...THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR KCQC.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTS BY THURS MORNING. GAP
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR KABQ...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING SEASONAL AVERAGES...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL PLUNGE INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHORT OF NORMAL OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT AT
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE THAT TICKLES THE FANCY OF ANY TRUE WEATHER GEEK.
BUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY A FINAL ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S LOW WORKED INTO NEVADA...AND HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST AS AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NM MOUNTAINS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL HIT THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...GIVING A
BOOKEND ON THE RECENT STINT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ORIENT ITSELF NORTH OF NM...GIVING
MANY LOCATIONS A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THURSDAY UNFOLDS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHILE
DRIVING A GAP/CANYON WIND THROUGH MANY CENTRAL AREAS PRONE TO THIS
SCENARIO OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT...WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN
KEPT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS AND OTHER
FAVORED GAP/CANYON WIND LOCALES...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND REVISED AS NEEDED. PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BEGIN
TAKING DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY...DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY LATE THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
STILL HAVE ITS AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL JUST BE STARTING TO ARRIVE INTO NM.

AS THURSDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW
OVER THE SAN DIEGO/TIJUANA VICINITY WITH A HEALTHY TAP INTO DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAKING PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ALREADY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM NASA SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUICY PWATS OF
1.8 INCHES IN THIS SECTOR.. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED
AS IT TREKS OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND...AM VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AND EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO NM. IN FACT
THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.65 INCH
OVER CENTRAL NM BY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS VERY HIGH...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY THE H7 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE AT ONLY 0 TO -1C OVER MUCH OF THE GILA...LIKELY
RELEGATING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET
OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SANGRES/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT THE ONSET OF
HEFTIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED BY 12-18 HOURS THERE. MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW WITH RAIN...AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPEDING THE WET BULB EFFECT. PRECIPITATION SHADOW MAY
BE IN EFFECT FOR ABQ METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FADE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE OVERCOME
THE EAST WIND.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE FULLY
UNDERWAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLUGGISHLY EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/SONORA
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
NM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HOSE CONTINUING TO SATURATE NM. CONFIDENCE
IN STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CHALLENGES WILL BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN EXTENT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE
SOME SNOW HAVE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING THROUGH COOLER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES. INABILITY
FOR PROFILES TO WET BULB BELOW FREEZING COULD HAMPER MANY EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THUS...SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO EARLY MORNINGS...BUT WILL LIKELY MELT/SETTLE
AS RAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

INTO SATURDAY THE LOW JOGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN WAS
ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF A
CANADIAN CLIPPER. PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NM...HOWEVER THE STEADINESS AND
HEAVINESS MIGHT DECLINE A BIT. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER
LOOKS TO WIN OUT...SHOVING THE LOW BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO...AND ESSENTIALLY DRYING NM OUT CONSIDERABLY IN
COOLER/DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL END THE EVENT A BIT SOONER
THAN WAS BELIEVED TO BE THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NONETHELESS A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION WET AND SNOWY PERIOD FOR THE STATE.

THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BUCKLING TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH. NORTHERN
ZONES MIGHT BE SKIMMED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF IT LOOKS TO BYPASS NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FAR NORTH...THEN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...SO COLD
AIR...OR LACK OF...WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ASSOCIATE SOME DRIER DEW POINTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE FOR THIS ISN/T OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM OBS
JUST YET. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA...SO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO INHERITED DEW POINT GRIDS. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AFFECT SNOW LEVELS BEFORE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV MAY BE SUSTAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING CONSISTENT WITH
THE WIND STARTING SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT SO MUCH WHEN IT
WOULD SLACK OFF...THE ECMWF TERMINATING IT FASTER...AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO IT LONGER INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT BY THEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
LIFT THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT THE STRONGER NW
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHUNTS IT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW LAST GASP SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY THEN DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES REMAIN FAIR TO POOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...AND IMPROVE SOME THURSDAY. POOR RATES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY. A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR RATES ANTICIPATED MONDAY
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY IN A WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH REGIME.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 281129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
NM...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURING MTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN AOA 140 WITH SFC LEE TROF PRODUCING SOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING SEASONAL AVERAGES...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL PLUNGE INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHORT OF NORMAL OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT AT
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE THAT TICKLES THE FANCY OF ANY TRUE WEATHER GEEK.
BUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY A FINAL ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S LOW WORKED INTO NEVADA...AND HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST AS AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NM MOUNTAINS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL HIT THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...GIVING A
BOOKEND ON THE RECENT STINT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ORIENT ITSELF NORTH OF NM...GIVING
MANY LOCATIONS A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THURSDAY UNFOLDS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHILE
DRIVING A GAP/CANYON WIND THROUGH MANY CENTRAL AREAS PRONE TO THIS
SCENARIO OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT...WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN
KEPT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS AND OTHER
FAVORED GAP/CANYON WIND LOCALES...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND REVISED AS NEEDED. PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BEGIN
TAKING DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY...DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY LATE THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
STILL HAVE ITS AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL JUST BE STARTING TO ARRIVE INTO NM.

AS THURSDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW
OVER THE SAN DIEGO/TIJUANA VICINITY WITH A HEALTHY TAP INTO DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAKING PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ALREADY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM NASA SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUICY PWATS OF
1.8 INCHES IN THIS SECTOR.. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED
AS IT TREKS OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND...AM VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AND EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO NM. IN FACT
THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.65 INCH
OVER CENTRAL NM BY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS VERY HIGH...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY THE H7 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE AT ONLY 0 TO -1C OVER MUCH OF THE GILA...LIKELY
RELEGATING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET
OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SANGRES/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT THE ONSET OF
HEFTIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED BY 12-18 HOURS THERE. MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW WITH RAIN...AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPEDING THE WET BULB EFFECT. PRECIPITATION SHADOW MAY
BE IN EFFECT FOR ABQ METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FADE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE OVERCOME
THE EAST WIND.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE FULLY
UNDERWAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLUGGISHLY EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/SONORA
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
NM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HOSE CONTINUING TO SATURATE NM. CONFIDENCE
IN STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CHALLENGES WILL BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN EXTENT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE
SOME SNOW HAVE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING THROUGH COOLER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES. INABILITY
FOR PROFILES TO WET BULB BELOW FREEZING COULD HAMPER MANY EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THUS...SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO EARLY MORNINGS...BUT WILL LIKELY MELT/SETTLE
AS RAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

INTO SATURDAY THE LOW JOGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN WAS
ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF A
CANADIAN CLIPPER. PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NM...HOWEVER THE STEADINESS AND
HEAVINESS MIGHT DECLINE A BIT. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER
LOOKS TO WIN OUT...SHOVING THE LOW BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO...AND ESSENTIALLY DRYING NM OUT CONSIDERABLY IN
COOLER/DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL END THE EVENT A BIT SOONER
THAN WAS BELIEVED TO BE THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NONETHELESS A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION WET AND SNOWY PERIOD FOR THE STATE.

THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BUCKLING TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH. NORTHERN
ZONES MIGHT BE SKIMMED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF IT LOOKS TO BYPASS NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FAR NORTH...THEN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...SO COLD
AIR...OR LACK OF...WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ASSOCIATE SOME DRIER DEW POINTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE FOR THIS ISN/T OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM OBS
JUST YET. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA...SO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO INHERITED DEW POINT GRIDS. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AFFECT SNOW LEVELS BEFORE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV MAY BE SUSTAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING CONSISTENT WITH
THE WIND STARTING SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT SO MUCH WHEN IT
WOULD SLACK OFF...THE ECMWF TERMINATING IT FASTER...AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO IT LONGER INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT BY THEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
LIFT THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT THE STRONGER NW
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHUNTS IT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW LAST GASP SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY THEN DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES REMAIN FAIR TO POOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...AND IMPROVE SOME THURSDAY. POOR RATES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY. A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR RATES ANTICIPATED MONDAY
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY IN A WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH REGIME.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 281129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
429 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER NW AND NORTH CENTRAL
NM...WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG OCCASIONALLY
OBSCURING MTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH 16Z.
OTHERWISE SCT-BKN AOA 140 WITH SFC LEE TROF PRODUCING SOME WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 40KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING SEASONAL AVERAGES...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL PLUNGE INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHORT OF NORMAL OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT AT
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE THAT TICKLES THE FANCY OF ANY TRUE WEATHER GEEK.
BUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY A FINAL ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S LOW WORKED INTO NEVADA...AND HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST AS AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NM MOUNTAINS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL HIT THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...GIVING A
BOOKEND ON THE RECENT STINT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ORIENT ITSELF NORTH OF NM...GIVING
MANY LOCATIONS A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THURSDAY UNFOLDS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHILE
DRIVING A GAP/CANYON WIND THROUGH MANY CENTRAL AREAS PRONE TO THIS
SCENARIO OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT...WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN
KEPT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS AND OTHER
FAVORED GAP/CANYON WIND LOCALES...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND REVISED AS NEEDED. PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BEGIN
TAKING DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY...DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY LATE THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
STILL HAVE ITS AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL JUST BE STARTING TO ARRIVE INTO NM.

AS THURSDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW
OVER THE SAN DIEGO/TIJUANA VICINITY WITH A HEALTHY TAP INTO DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAKING PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ALREADY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM NASA SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUICY PWATS OF
1.8 INCHES IN THIS SECTOR.. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED
AS IT TREKS OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND...AM VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AND EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO NM. IN FACT
THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.65 INCH
OVER CENTRAL NM BY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS VERY HIGH...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY THE H7 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE AT ONLY 0 TO -1C OVER MUCH OF THE GILA...LIKELY
RELEGATING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET
OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SANGRES/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT THE ONSET OF
HEFTIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED BY 12-18 HOURS THERE. MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW WITH RAIN...AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPEDING THE WET BULB EFFECT. PRECIPITATION SHADOW MAY
BE IN EFFECT FOR ABQ METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FADE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE OVERCOME
THE EAST WIND.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE FULLY
UNDERWAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLUGGISHLY EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/SONORA
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
NM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HOSE CONTINUING TO SATURATE NM. CONFIDENCE
IN STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CHALLENGES WILL BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN EXTENT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE
SOME SNOW HAVE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING THROUGH COOLER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES. INABILITY
FOR PROFILES TO WET BULB BELOW FREEZING COULD HAMPER MANY EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THUS...SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO EARLY MORNINGS...BUT WILL LIKELY MELT/SETTLE
AS RAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

INTO SATURDAY THE LOW JOGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN WAS
ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF A
CANADIAN CLIPPER. PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NM...HOWEVER THE STEADINESS AND
HEAVINESS MIGHT DECLINE A BIT. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER
LOOKS TO WIN OUT...SHOVING THE LOW BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO...AND ESSENTIALLY DRYING NM OUT CONSIDERABLY IN
COOLER/DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL END THE EVENT A BIT SOONER
THAN WAS BELIEVED TO BE THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NONETHELESS A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION WET AND SNOWY PERIOD FOR THE STATE.

THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BUCKLING TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH. NORTHERN
ZONES MIGHT BE SKIMMED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF IT LOOKS TO BYPASS NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FAR NORTH...THEN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...SO COLD
AIR...OR LACK OF...WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ASSOCIATE SOME DRIER DEW POINTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE FOR THIS ISN/T OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM OBS
JUST YET. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA...SO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO INHERITED DEW POINT GRIDS. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AFFECT SNOW LEVELS BEFORE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV MAY BE SUSTAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING CONSISTENT WITH
THE WIND STARTING SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT SO MUCH WHEN IT
WOULD SLACK OFF...THE ECMWF TERMINATING IT FASTER...AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO IT LONGER INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT BY THEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
LIFT THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT THE STRONGER NW
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHUNTS IT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW LAST GASP SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY THEN DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES REMAIN FAIR TO POOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...AND IMPROVE SOME THURSDAY. POOR RATES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY. A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR RATES ANTICIPATED MONDAY
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY IN A WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH REGIME.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 281047
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING SEASONAL AVERAGES...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL PLUNGE INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHORT OF NORMAL OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT AT
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE THAT TICKLES THE FANCY OF ANY TRUE WEATHER GEEK.
BUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY A FINAL ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S LOW WORKED INTO NEVADA...AND HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST AS AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NM MOUNTAINS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL HIT THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...GIVING A
BOOKEND ON THE RECENT STINT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ORIENT ITSELF NORTH OF NM...GIVING
MANY LOCATIONS A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THURSDAY UNFOLDS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHILE
DRIVING A GAP/CANYON WIND THROUGH MANY CENTRAL AREAS PRONE TO THIS
SCENARIO OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT...WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN
KEPT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS AND OTHER
FAVORED GAP/CANYON WIND LOCALES...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND REVISED AS NEEDED. PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BEGIN
TAKING DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY...DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY LATE THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
STILL HAVE ITS AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL JUST BE STARTING TO ARRIVE INTO NM.

AS THURSDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW
OVER THE SAN DIEGO/TIJUANA VICINITY WITH A HEALTHY TAP INTO DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAKING PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ALREADY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM NASA SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUICY PWATS OF
1.8 INCHES IN THIS SECTOR.. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED
AS IT TREKS OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND...AM VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AND EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO NM. IN FACT
THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.65 INCH
OVER CENTRAL NM BY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS VERY HIGH...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY THE H7 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE AT ONLY 0 TO -1C OVER MUCH OF THE GILA...LIKELY
RELEGATING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET
OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SANGRES/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT THE ONSET OF
HEFTIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED BY 12-18 HOURS THERE. MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW WITH RAIN...AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPEDING THE WET BULB EFFECT. PRECIPITATION SHADOW MAY
BE IN EFFECT FOR ABQ METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FADE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE OVERCOME
THE EAST WIND.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE FULLY
UNDERWAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLUGGISHLY EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/SONORA
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
NM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HOSE CONTINUING TO SATURATE NM. CONFIDENCE
IN STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CHALLENGES WILL BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN EXTENT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE
SOME SNOW HAVE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING THROUGH COOLER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES. INABILITY
FOR PROFILES TO WET BULB BELOW FREEZING COULD HAMPER MANY EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THUS...SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO EARLY MORNINGS...BUT WILL LIKELY MELT/SETTLE
AS RAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

INTO SATURDAY THE LOW JOGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN WAS
ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF A
CANADIAN CLIPPER. PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NM...HOWEVER THE STEADINESS AND
HEAVINESS MIGHT DECLINE A BIT. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER
LOOKS TO WIN OUT...SHOVING THE LOW BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO...AND ESSENTIALLY DRYING NM OUT CONSIDERABLY IN
COOLER/DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL END THE EVENT A BIT SOONER
THAN WAS BELIEVED TO BE THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NONETHELESS A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION WET AND SNOWY PERIOD FOR THE STATE.

THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BUCKLING TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH. NORTHERN
ZONES MIGHT BE SKIMMED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF IT LOOKS TO BYPASS NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FAR NORTH...THEN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...SO COLD
AIR...OR LACK OF...WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ASSOCIATE SOME DRIER DEW POINTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE FOR THIS ISN/T OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM OBS
JUST YET. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA...SO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO INHERITED DEW POINT GRIDS. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AFFECT SNOW LEVELS BEFORE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV MAY BE SUSTAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING CONSISTENT WITH
THE WIND STARTING SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT SO MUCH WHEN IT
WOULD SLACK OFF...THE ECMWF TERMINATING IT FASTER...AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO IT LONGER INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT BY THEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
LIFT THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT THE STRONGER NW
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHUNTS IT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW LAST GASP SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY THEN DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES REMAIN FAIR TO POOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...AND IMPROVE SOME THURSDAY. POOR RATES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY. A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR RATES ANTICIPATED MONDAY
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY IN A WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...MAINLY ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND EVEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z WED. THESE RATHER LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
NM KEEPING LOW CIGS OUT OF THE PICTURE THERE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  30  53  34 /   0   0   5  40
DULCE...........................  53  21  52  23 /   5   5  10  40
CUBA............................  52  26  49  27 /   0   0   5  40
GALLUP..........................  57  27  54  34 /   0   0   5  60
EL MORRO........................  54  24  51  29 /   0   0  10  60
GRANTS..........................  56  20  50  29 /   0   0  10  60
QUEMADO.........................  57  26  54  33 /   0   0  10  60
GLENWOOD........................  66  36  65  38 /   0   0  20  70
CHAMA...........................  47  19  46  20 /   5   5  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  33  46  28 /   0   0   5  40
PECOS...........................  53  31  43  24 /   0   0   5  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  17  43  18 /   0   5   5  20
RED RIVER.......................  43  19  38  20 /   5   5  10  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  14  39  18 /   5   5  10  30
TAOS............................  50  23  46  24 /   0   5   5  20
MORA............................  55  27  40  23 /   0   0  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  57  26  51  28 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA FE........................  53  31  48  28 /   0   0   5  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  28  50  27 /   0   0   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  33  51  30 /   0   0   5  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  35  52  32 /   0   0   5  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  29  54  29 /   0   0   5  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  30  54  29 /   0   0   5  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  30  55  33 /   0   0   0  40
RIO RANCHO......................  60  35  53  32 /   0   0   5  40
SOCORRO.........................  65  34  55  33 /   0   0   5  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  30  49  27 /   0   0  10  50
TIJERAS.........................  58  31  51  29 /   0   0  10  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  23  47  24 /   0   0  10  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  27  44  23 /   0   0   5  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  28  47  27 /   0   0   5  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  33  53  30 /   0   0  10  50
RUIDOSO.........................  61  28  48  23 /   0   0  10  60
CAPULIN.........................  57  26  42  22 /   0   0  10   5
RATON...........................  59  29  44  24 /   0   0  10  10
SPRINGER........................  57  27  45  24 /   0   0  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  60  26  42  20 /   0   0  10  40
CLAYTON.........................  67  33  48  27 /   0   0   5   5
ROY.............................  60  27  46  24 /   0   0   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  67  34  52  29 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA ROSA......................  68  34  51  29 /   0   0   5  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  35  53  30 /   0   0   0  20
CLOVIS..........................  68  35  51  29 /   0   0   0  30
PORTALES........................  69  36  54  29 /   0   0   0  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  37  52  30 /   0   0   0  30
ROSWELL.........................  71  36  54  33 /   0   0   5  40
PICACHO.........................  68  36  52  29 /   0   0  10  50
ELK.............................  65  33  48  27 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 281047
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
347 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. THIS FEATURE MAY INDUCE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WHILE ALSO BRINGING SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF
TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING SEASONAL AVERAGES...AS A COLD FRONT
WILL PLUNGE INTO NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SHORT OF NORMAL OVER MOST OF NEW MEXICO THURSDAY WHILE A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WATERS TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRAW COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ENSUE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT AT
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 9000 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY INTERESTING FORECAST SHAPING UP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...ONE THAT TICKLES THE FANCY OF ANY TRUE WEATHER GEEK.
BUT PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THIS UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEFINED BY A FINAL ROUND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
REMNANTS OF YESTERDAY`S LOW WORKED INTO NEVADA...AND HAS NOW
SHIFTED EAST AS AN OPEN SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A STRAY SHOWER OVER THE NORTHERN NM MOUNTAINS
COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT UNLIKELY. SOME STRONGER
MOMENTUM ALOFT WILL HIT THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM AS A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION.

TONIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...GIVING A
BOOKEND ON THE RECENT STINT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
INITIALLY THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ORIENT ITSELF NORTH OF NM...GIVING
MANY LOCATIONS A NORTH NORTHEAST WIND COMPONENT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AS THURSDAY UNFOLDS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE NATION...SETTING UP A WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO WHILE
DRIVING A GAP/CANYON WIND THROUGH MANY CENTRAL AREAS PRONE TO THIS
SCENARIO OF GUSTY WINDS. AT THIS POINT...WIND FORECAST HAS BEEN
KEPT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR ABQ/SAF METRO AREAS AND OTHER
FAVORED GAP/CANYON WIND LOCALES...BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AND REVISED AS NEEDED. PRECIPITATION WILL JUST BEGIN
TAKING DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY...DRIVEN BY UPSLOPE AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE EAST FACES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND ALSO TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE EAST FACES OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY LATE THURSDAY THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
STILL HAVE ITS AXIS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND
DIFFLUENT FLOW WILL JUST BE STARTING TO ARRIVE INTO NM.

AS THURSDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO A LOW
OVER THE SAN DIEGO/TIJUANA VICINITY WITH A HEALTHY TAP INTO DEEP
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAKING PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ALREADY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM NASA SPORT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS JUICY PWATS OF
1.8 INCHES IN THIS SECTOR.. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE MODIFIED
AS IT TREKS OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND...AM VERY OPTIMISTIC THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE COPIOUS AND EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO NM. IN FACT
THE NAM MODEL INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL RISE TO 0.65 INCH
OVER CENTRAL NM BY FRIDAY...WHICH WOULD BE 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD VALUES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS VERY HIGH...BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS. CURRENTLY THE H7 TEMPERATURES
ARE PROGGED TO BE AT ONLY 0 TO -1C OVER MUCH OF THE GILA...LIKELY
RELEGATING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET
OR SO THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE COOLER FARTHER
NORTHEAST NEAR THE SANGRES/NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...BUT THE ONSET OF
HEFTIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE DELAYED BY 12-18 HOURS THERE. MANY
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS BELOW 7000 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY
ONLY SEE BRIEF MIXING OF SNOW WITH RAIN...AND ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
HARD TO COME BY...ESPECIALLY IF DEWPOINTS RISE ABOVE
FREEZING...IMPEDING THE WET BULB EFFECT. PRECIPITATION SHADOW MAY
BE IN EFFECT FOR ABQ METRO AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD FADE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE DYNAMICS ALOFT AND COPIOUS MOISTURE OVERCOME
THE EAST WIND.

BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE FULLY
UNDERWAY AS THE LOW MOVES SLUGGISHLY EASTWARD ALONG THE AZ/SONORA
BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A HEALTHY SLUG OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER
NM WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HOSE CONTINUING TO SATURATE NM. CONFIDENCE
IN STEADY MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS VERY
HIGH IN THIS SCENARIO. THE CHALLENGES WILL BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. COLDER AIR WILL BE FOUND IN NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND TO AN EXTENT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...WHERE
SOME SNOW HAVE MORE LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING THROUGH COOLER AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT PROFILES. INABILITY
FOR PROFILES TO WET BULB BELOW FREEZING COULD HAMPER MANY EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...AS WELL AS MANY OF THE CENTRAL TO
WESTERN VALLEYS. THUS...SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS TO EARLY MORNINGS...BUT WILL LIKELY MELT/SETTLE
AS RAIN BECOMES PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAYTIME.
IT WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY ENTIRELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 9000-10000 FEET WHERE ONE TO TWO FEET
OF SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER PEAKS.

INTO SATURDAY THE LOW JOGS A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN WAS
ADVERTISED THE PAST FEW DAYS...COURTESY OF AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF A
CANADIAN CLIPPER. PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE QUITE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY ACROSS NM...HOWEVER THE STEADINESS AND
HEAVINESS MIGHT DECLINE A BIT. INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THE CLIPPER
LOOKS TO WIN OUT...SHOVING THE LOW BACK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO...AND ESSENTIALLY DRYING NM OUT CONSIDERABLY IN
COOLER/DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL END THE EVENT A BIT SOONER
THAN WAS BELIEVED TO BE THE CASE 24 HOURS AGO...BUT NONETHELESS A
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG DURATION WET AND SNOWY PERIOD FOR THE STATE.

THE DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BUCKLING TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH. NORTHERN
ZONES MIGHT BE SKIMMED WITH SOME PRECIPITATION FROM THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE...BUT THE BULK OF IT LOOKS TO BYPASS NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS FAR NORTH...THEN A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT
UNFOLDS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE SUBTROPICS...SO COLD
AIR...OR LACK OF...WILL BE A FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION TYPE. A COLD
FRONT REMAINS ON SCHEDULE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MODELS ASSOCIATE SOME DRIER DEW POINTS WITH THIS
FEATURE...ALTHOUGH EVIDENCE FOR THIS ISN/T OBSERVED IN UPSTREAM OBS
JUST YET. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THIS
IDEA...SO MAKE SOME CHANGES TO INHERITED DEW POINT GRIDS. THE DRIER
AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY AFFECT SNOW LEVELS BEFORE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY. STILL...IT APPEARS COLD ENOUGH
FOR SIGNIFICANT HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS WEEK.

GUSTY EAST WINDS INTO THE RGV MAY BE SUSTAINED THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY. MODEL TIMING CONSISTENT WITH
THE WIND STARTING SOMETIME THURSDAY MORNING BUT NOT SO MUCH WHEN IT
WOULD SLACK OFF...THE ECMWF TERMINATING IT FASTER...AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO IT LONGER INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WILL PUSH MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE EAST AND CENTRAL...BUT BY THEN THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH. GFS CONTINUES TO ATTEMPT TO
LIFT THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST...BUT THE STRONGER NW
FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHUNTS IT
SOUTHWARD. A FEW LAST GASP SHOWERS WILL LINGER SUNDAY THEN DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

VENT RATES REMAIN FAIR TO POOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST
TODAY...AND IMPROVE SOME THURSDAY. POOR RATES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY. A MIXED BAG OF MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR RATES ANTICIPATED MONDAY
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD FOR MOST AREAS TUESDAY IN A WEST TO NW FLOW
ALOFT AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...MAINLY ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND EVEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z WED. THESE RATHER LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
NM KEEPING LOW CIGS OUT OF THE PICTURE THERE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  30  53  34 /   0   0   5  40
DULCE...........................  53  21  52  23 /   5   5  10  40
CUBA............................  52  26  49  27 /   0   0   5  40
GALLUP..........................  57  27  54  34 /   0   0   5  60
EL MORRO........................  54  24  51  29 /   0   0  10  60
GRANTS..........................  56  20  50  29 /   0   0  10  60
QUEMADO.........................  57  26  54  33 /   0   0  10  60
GLENWOOD........................  66  36  65  38 /   0   0  20  70
CHAMA...........................  47  19  46  20 /   5   5  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  33  46  28 /   0   0   5  40
PECOS...........................  53  31  43  24 /   0   0   5  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  17  43  18 /   0   5   5  20
RED RIVER.......................  43  19  38  20 /   5   5  10  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  14  39  18 /   5   5  10  30
TAOS............................  50  23  46  24 /   0   5   5  20
MORA............................  55  27  40  23 /   0   0  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  57  26  51  28 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA FE........................  53  31  48  28 /   0   0   5  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  28  50  27 /   0   0   5  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  33  51  30 /   0   0   5  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  35  52  32 /   0   0   5  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  29  54  29 /   0   0   5  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  30  54  29 /   0   0   5  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  30  55  33 /   0   0   0  40
RIO RANCHO......................  60  35  53  32 /   0   0   5  40
SOCORRO.........................  65  34  55  33 /   0   0   5  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  30  49  27 /   0   0  10  50
TIJERAS.........................  58  31  51  29 /   0   0  10  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  23  47  24 /   0   0  10  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  27  44  23 /   0   0   5  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  28  47  27 /   0   0   5  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  33  53  30 /   0   0  10  50
RUIDOSO.........................  61  28  48  23 /   0   0  10  60
CAPULIN.........................  57  26  42  22 /   0   0  10   5
RATON...........................  59  29  44  24 /   0   0  10  10
SPRINGER........................  57  27  45  24 /   0   0  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  60  26  42  20 /   0   0  10  40
CLAYTON.........................  67  33  48  27 /   0   0   5   5
ROY.............................  60  27  46  24 /   0   0   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  67  34  52  29 /   0   0   0  20
SANTA ROSA......................  68  34  51  29 /   0   0   5  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  35  53  30 /   0   0   0  20
CLOVIS..........................  68  35  51  29 /   0   0   0  30
PORTALES........................  69  36  54  29 /   0   0   0  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  37  52  30 /   0   0   0  30
ROSWELL.........................  71  36  54  33 /   0   0   5  40
PICACHO.........................  68  36  52  29 /   0   0  10  50
ELK.............................  65  33  48  27 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-521-526.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 280554
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...MAINLY ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND EVEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z WED. THESE RATHER LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
NM KEEPING LOW CIGS OUT OF THE PICTURE THERE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 280554
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...MAINLY ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND EVEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z WED. THESE RATHER LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
NM KEEPING LOW CIGS OUT OF THE PICTURE THERE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 280554
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...MAINLY ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND EVEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z WED. THESE RATHER LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
NM KEEPING LOW CIGS OUT OF THE PICTURE THERE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 280554
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1054 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HRS. MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH ACROSS PARTS
OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...MAINLY ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER
SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...THAT A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AND EVEN FOG
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN ABOUT 10Z AND 16Z WED. THESE RATHER LOCALIZED
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TONIGHT WILL DRY
THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE MORE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF
NM KEEPING LOW CIGS OUT OF THE PICTURE THERE. SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS
COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES EAST OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 280003 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
503 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...
ESPEC ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...AND THE
RESULT MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN FOG BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z WED. ANY SUCH CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF
SITES. MODERATE TO STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
TONIGHT WILL DRY THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF.
THUS MITIGATING ANY LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THERE. SOME LOCALIZED
GUSTS COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 280003 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
503 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HRS. LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AND W CENTRAL NM...
ESPEC ALONG AND A LITTLE WAYS EITHER SIDE OF THE DIVIDE...AND THE
RESULT MAY BE A FEW POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN FOG BETWEEN 10Z
AND 16Z WED. ANY SUCH CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF
SITES. MODERATE TO STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
TONIGHT WILL DRY THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF.
THUS MITIGATING ANY LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THERE. SOME LOCALIZED
GUSTS COULD REACH 35 TO 45 KTS ACROSS AND UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08Z AND 20Z THU.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 272156
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT
A LIGHT SHOWER EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FAVORING THE NW
BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES. RESIDUAL
HIGHER DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME NEAR SATURATION ACROSS THE NC AND
WC MTNS SO CANT RULE OUT IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/FMN OR SAF. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT WILL DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THUS MITIGATING ANY
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THERE.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  32  53  30  52 /   5   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  24  53  23  50 /   5   5   5  10
CUBA............................  27  53  23  50 /   5   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  29  57  28  54 /  10   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  27  54  25  50 /  10   0   0  10
GRANTS..........................  24  55  21  49 /  10   0   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  28  57  27  52 /  10   0   0  10
GLENWOOD........................  36  65  36  62 /   5   0   0  10
CHAMA...........................  20  47  19  46 /  10   0   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  36  51  32  44 /   5   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  35  52  29  43 /   5   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  19  46  16  40 /   5   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  23  43  16  38 /   5   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  45  13  38 /   5   0   5  10
TAOS............................  24  49  23  44 /   5   0   5   5
MORA............................  32  53  27  42 /   5   0   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  28  56  26  49 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  34  52  31  45 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  31  55  28  48 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  58  32  50 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  36  61  34  51 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  62  28  52 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  61  30  52 /   5   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  31  62  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  35  60  34  51 /   5   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  35  64  34  53 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  55  30  47 /   5   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  34  58  32  50 /   5   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  58  24  48 /   5   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  34  54  28  44 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  32  56  29  47 /   5   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  35  62  34  53 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  33  60  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  29  56  29  42 /   5   0   0  10
RATON...........................  29  58  29  44 /   5   0   0  10
SPRINGER........................  29  57  27  44 /   0   0   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  59  27  43 /   0   0   0  10
CLAYTON.........................  39  66  33  49 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  32  60  28  45 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  37  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  40  67  34  51 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  41  68  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  40  67  36  50 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  40  68  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  40  68  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  34  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  37  68  36  53 /   0   0   0  10
ELK.............................  36  65  35  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 272156
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE MORE GOOD WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL KEEP TO A
RAPIDLY WET AND SNOWY ENDING FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
STORM PUSHES MUCH MOISTURE OVER A MUCH COLDER STATE. SNOW WILL BE
WIDESPREAD AND IN LARGE QUANTITIES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
SNOW COVERAGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AS A ROUND OF
MUCH COLDER AIR PENETRATES NEW MEXICO FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF SNOW MONDAY WILL EASE UP
ON TUESDAY...AS SNOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO BEGINS AN EASTWARD TRIP
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PLASTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PROVIDES ONE
BORDER TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE HIGH...WHILE WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN EVOLUTION FROM LATE
MONDAY ONWARD OF NEXT WEEK. GOOD START BREAKS DOWN RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH TOMORROW...LEAVING ENTIRE STATE IN BROAD ZONAL FLOW
AS UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DRAWS EVER CLOSER TO
THE U.S. AND MEXICAN WEST COASTS. TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD TO LIE FROM THE BITTEROOT AND SAWTOOTH MOUNTAINS
OF MONTANA AND IDAHO SOUTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
PACIFIC WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COASTLINE BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SET UP THIS WAY...WITH BROAD AND MOIST PUSH OF ATMOSPHERE
NORTHWARD AND SPLATTERED ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO...THE STORM CORE
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND
THEN OVER SONORA AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY SUNDAY
MORNING. FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
GREAT BASIN AREA FLOPS SOLIDLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND UNDERLYING TROUGH STARTS TO LENGTHEN TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND LIES FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. MODELS
DIFFERING BY LATE MONDAY...AS EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES WITH ECMWF SHOW
NORTHERN MEXICO TROUGH STARTING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD JOURNEY TO
SOUTH TEXAS BY MIDWEEK...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SIMULATION LOCKS
PROGRESS UP TO NEAR ZERO WITH CLOSED LOW OVER THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY AND NEIGHBORING CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. CAN STILL KEEP
THESE DIFFERENCES SPLIT FOR NOW...WITH KEY ISSUE THE STRENGTH OF
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO TO THE NORTH HEADING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ONE FOR BETTER
AGREEMENT IN FUTURE RUNS.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WARM OVERNIGHT PERIOD CONTINUES...IN THE WAKE
OF AN OTHERWISE WARM DAY. OFF CHANCE FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER NORTHWESTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WITH SOUTHWEST COLORADO. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP ALL BUT THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN RAIN...WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IN VERY HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LAST OF THE GOOD SOLID WARM DAYS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...AND THE WEST
5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE IN A DAY WITH SOME HAZY CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTH...BUT QUITE CLEAR TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN HIGH PRESSURE AND CENTRAL PLAINS MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN NORTHWEST IN GENERAL...WITH BREEZES
ALONG SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS...AND ALONG EASTERN HALF OF INTERSTATE 40 AND
POINTS SOUTH THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDINESS
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

FOR THURSDAY...LEADING RIDGE CORE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK IN NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL
ALLOW BROAD PENETRATION OF COLDER AIR OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STATES TO EASTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY ON THURSDAY. DOUBLE
DIGIT DROPS IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS
TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH SOMEWHAT
REDUCED DROPS ON TAP FOR THE WEST KEEPING TEMPERATURES SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL. FLOW ALOFT STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY
AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE GETTING A LATE AFTERNOON START OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAINS HEADING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
AS CENTRAL ACTION OF THE TROUGH MOVES SOLIDLY INWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY AT TIMES
STATEWIDE...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WILL BE EXPECTING BROAD
ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER WATCHES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN FUTURE
FORECASTS...AND WILL INTRODUCE THIS IDEA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS TO MAKE SURE FOLKS GET THE WORD.

FOR FRIDAY...STORM CORE SPRAWLED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH NORTHBOUND CIRCULATION BLASTING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AS EASTERN COLD FRONT SLAMS WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
WIDESPREAD SNOW AND RAIN WILL RUN ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH WET SLOPPY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
PART OF THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN LOW COUNTRY...AND
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SOUTH. WEATHER HAZARD STATEMENTS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND ON TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...WEAKENING COLD FRONT SATURDAY
AS STORM CORE MOVES TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA...AND
MOISTURE REMAINS A MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE DAY. NEXT SOUTHBOUND
COLD PUSH WILL SLAM SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...AS STORM CORE SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN SONORA AND OUT OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
COLD FRONT INVADING FROM THE NORTH WILL SHAPE UP OVER SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FORCED TO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...AND POINTS
TO THE NORTH RUNNING COLDER BUT CLEARER HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
RIDGE CORE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL EXPAND RAPIDLY EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY...AS STORM CORE DRIFTS EVEN FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN VERY RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...RETURNING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LEAD INTO A
FAIRLY ROBUST AND MOIST/LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH FOR THIS WETTING EVENT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
LEVELS AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION DURING VARIOUS STAGES OF THE EVENT.
IT BECOMES THE BATTLE OF MOIST/SUBTROPICAL AIR FROM THE SOUTH AND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. A BROAD RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE AREA BUT THE WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE. MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL ALSO INCREASE THUS LEADING TO AN INCREASED VENTILATION RATE
REGIME. POOR VALUES STILL SHOW UP FOR MAXIMUMS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
MUCH COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. INTERESTING DRYING PHENOMENA COULD IMPACT THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO RANGE AND AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE RANGE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF DRY SLOTTING ALOFT AND MECHANICAL MIXING AT THE
SURFACE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL MOST CERTAINLY INCREASE OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT AND COULD DRAG DRIER AIR
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY
ONE MODEL SHOWS THIS SURFACE DRYING TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
DECIDED TO GO WITH THIS MODEL DESPITE THE LACK OF CONSENSUS. THUS RH
FORECASTING WILL BE TRICKY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...RH VALUES LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE IF NOT A
LITTLE ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES.

THURSDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE TRANSITION DAY. THE INITIAL BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. AT THE SAME TIME...THE AIR ALOFT WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
LOW. A LONG DURATION WETTING EVENT IS SETTING UP FOR THE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD. VENTILATION WILL IMPROVE SOME
ON THURSDAY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS. THE FLOW WILL BE
MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST THOUGH. VENTILATION ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE REDUCED
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES FAVORING THE WESTERN TIER. QUITE A MESSY AND
TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST REMAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SEE MOISTENING/DRYING AND
THERMAL CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME FRAMES DURING THE EVENT. PLAN
ACCORDINGLY.

DRIER WEATHER IS DEPICTED BY THE MID RANGE MODELS FOR THE SUNDAY
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS FURTHER SOUTH OVER MEXICO AND THE BAJA
AREA. MODELS HAVE VARIED SOMEWHAT THE PAST FEW DAYS ON THIS
PARTICULAR SOLUTION ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONSENSUS THE PAST
1.5 DAYS. THIS CUT OFF LOW WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANY SORT OF
IMPACTS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AT THIS TIME THE LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW THIS PARTICULAR LOW AS BEING A NON FACTOR. THE ECMWF
MODEL SHOWS A PACIFIC WAVE FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET CLIPPING
THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
THE EARLY NEXT WEEK TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
VENTILATION/TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS. THE ECMWF MODEL WOULD
INDICATE BETTER VENTILATION RATES THAN THE GFS. THE GFS IS USED TO
POPULATE OUR GRIDDED VENT RATE FORECAST BETWEEN DAYS 5 TO 7.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
FR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT
A LIGHT SHOWER EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FAVORING THE NW
BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES. RESIDUAL
HIGHER DEW POINTS SHOULD REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME NEAR SATURATION ACROSS THE NC AND
WC MTNS SO CANT RULE OUT IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/FMN OR SAF. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWN SLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT WILL DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THUS MITIGATING ANY
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THERE.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  32  53  30  52 /   5   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  24  53  23  50 /   5   5   5  10
CUBA............................  27  53  23  50 /   5   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  29  57  28  54 /  10   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  27  54  25  50 /  10   0   0  10
GRANTS..........................  24  55  21  49 /  10   0   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  28  57  27  52 /  10   0   0  10
GLENWOOD........................  36  65  36  62 /   5   0   0  10
CHAMA...........................  20  47  19  46 /  10   0   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  36  51  32  44 /   5   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  35  52  29  43 /   5   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  19  46  16  40 /   5   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  23  43  16  38 /   5   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  45  13  38 /   5   0   5  10
TAOS............................  24  49  23  44 /   5   0   5   5
MORA............................  32  53  27  42 /   5   0   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  28  56  26  49 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  34  52  31  45 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  31  55  28  48 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  58  32  50 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  36  61  34  51 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  62  28  52 /   5   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  61  30  52 /   5   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  31  62  29  52 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  35  60  34  51 /   5   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  35  64  34  53 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  55  30  47 /   5   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  34  58  32  50 /   5   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  58  24  48 /   5   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  34  54  28  44 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  32  56  29  47 /   5   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  35  62  34  53 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  33  60  29  49 /   0   0   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  29  56  29  42 /   5   0   0  10
RATON...........................  29  58  29  44 /   5   0   0  10
SPRINGER........................  29  57  27  44 /   0   0   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  59  27  43 /   0   0   0  10
CLAYTON.........................  39  66  33  49 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  32  60  28  45 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  37  66  33  52 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  40  67  34  51 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  41  68  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  40  67  36  50 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  40  68  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  40  68  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  34  70  36  54 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  37  68  36  53 /   0   0   0  10
ELK.............................  36  65  35  50 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY











000
FXUS65 KABQ 271732 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1032 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. PERIODS OF MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT
A LIGHT SHOWER EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS FAVORING THE NW
BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES. RESIDUAL
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME NEAR SATURATION ACROSS THE NC AND
WC MTNS SO CANT RULE OUT IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT BUT NOT LIKELY
TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS GUP/FMN OR SAF. MODERATE TO
STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT WILL DRY THE
ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF. THUS MITIGATING ANY
LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL THERE.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA...DRAGGING SOME MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN STRETCHES OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TURN EASTWARD...TRACKING INTO THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
INTO THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
STATE...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF OLD MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE INCHES CLOSER TO THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...A WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO SO CAL AS AN
OPEN WAVE. UPSTREAM AROUND 130W THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
INTEREST CAN BE SEEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
MOISTURE DID WORK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE...DRAGGING INTO AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM...BUT IT HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRECIPITATE MUCH WITHIN THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXCEED NORMAL VALUES
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS.

INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER BAJA LOW WILL BE MAKING
AN ABRUPT EAST TURN FROM NV TO UT AND CO. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS TURN...WHICH
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAY`S EVEN SHARPER DROP
ALMOST SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL STEER THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALOFT A
BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND FORECAST WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEE AREAS WHERE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT JUXTAPOSED
WITH THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS...AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES INTO THE PLAINS EASTWARD WILL
ONLY HELP THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND TO CONTINUE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCANT AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PEAKS NEAR
THE CO/NM BORDER.

BIG CHANGES THEN UNFOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STOUT
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO NM AND ENCROACHES UPON THE AZ BORDER BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BACK BELOW
AVERAGE IN A HURRY...BUT THIS AIR MASS WILL CERTAINLY NOT HAVE AS
MUCH BITE AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC PREDECESSORS THIS SEASON. SOME
UPSLOPE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL ACTION IS SET
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
INCHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION TO SPREAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT OVER THE RECENTLY ARRIVED COLDER
AIR MASS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES STILL RETAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION ON QPF AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT INVASION
ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND MANY
PLAINS TO LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY OBSERVE
RAIN...BEFORE SNOW BEGINS MIXING IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONSET OF A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH VERY HEALTHY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AND PRECIPITATION
WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. STILL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO GIVE PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WAFFLING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...NAMELY ABOVE 7000 FEET LOOK TO DO QUITE WELL AS FAR
AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED WITH MANY MOUNTAINOUS ZONES
LIKELY NEEDING SOME WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEFTY AMOUNTS. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE TO PULL
ATTENTION TO THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND CAUSES THE LOW TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH CA AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE ONLY MEAGER
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...DESPITE SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH TPW VALUES INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING
NEWD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR OVERALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOW DEPICTED TO TRAVEL
FARTHER NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WEDNESDAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME
COOLING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT MODELS A BIT SLOWER...HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.
DIDN/T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS CAN MANY
TIMES BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT TIMING. BOTH MAX AND
MIN RH TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY
IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE
EVENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY BUT IT/S NOT TERRIBLY
COLD EITHER.

FORECAST VENT RATES THURSDAY ARE POOR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD RATES MOST OTHER LOCALES. RATES WORSEN
FRIDAY WITH POOR TO FAIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO POOR VENT
RATES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 271146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SPREADS NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR IN WDLY SCT -RA AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN -SN
CENTRAL AND WRN NM. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THE MT TOP
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AFT
28/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA...DRAGGING SOME MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN STRETCHES OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TURN EASTWARD...TRACKING INTO THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
INTO THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
STATE...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF OLD MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE INCHES CLOSER TO THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...A WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO SO CAL AS AN
OPEN WAVE. UPSTREAM AROUND 130W THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
INTEREST CAN BE SEEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
MOISTURE DID WORK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE...DRAGGING INTO AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM...BUT IT HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRECIPITATE MUCH WITHIN THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXCEED NORMAL VALUES
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS.

INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER BAJA LOW WILL BE MAKING
AN ABRUPT EAST TURN FROM NV TO UT AND CO. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS TURN...WHICH
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAY`S EVEN SHARPER DROP
ALMOST SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL STEER THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALOFT A
BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND FORECAST WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEE AREAS WHERE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT JUXTAPOSED
WITH THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS...AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES INTO THE PLAINS EASTWARD WILL
ONLY HELP THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND TO CONTINUE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCANT AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PEAKS NEAR
THE CO/NM BORDER.

BIG CHANGES THEN UNFOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STOUT
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO NM AND ENCROACHES UPON THE AZ BORDER BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BACK BELOW
AVERAGE IN A HURRY...BUT THIS AIR MASS WILL CERTAINLY NOT HAVE AS
MUCH BITE AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC PREDECESSORS THIS SEASON. SOME
UPSLOPE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL ACTION IS SET
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
INCHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION TO SPREAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT OVER THE RECENTLY ARRIVED COLDER
AIR MASS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES STILL RETAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION ON QPF AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT INVASION
ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND MANY
PLAINS TO LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY OBSERVE
RAIN...BEFORE SNOW BEGINS MIXING IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONSET OF A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH VERY HEALTHY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AND PRECIPITATION
WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. STILL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO GIVE PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WAFFLING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...NAMELY ABOVE 7000 FEET LOOK TO DO QUITE WELL AS FAR
AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED WITH MANY MOUNTAINOUS ZONES
LIKELY NEEDING SOME WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEFTY AMOUNTS. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE TO PULL
ATTENTION TO THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND CAUSES THE LOW TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH CA AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE ONLY MEAGER
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...DESPITE SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH TPW VALUES INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING
NEWD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR OVERALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOW DEPICTED TO TRAVEL
FARTHER NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WEDNESDAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME
COOLING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT MODELS A BIT SLOWER...HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.
DIDN/T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS CAN MANY
TIMES BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT TIMING. BOTH MAX AND
MIN RH TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY
IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE
EVENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY BUT IT/S NOT TERRIBLY
COLD EITHER.

FORECAST VENT RATES THURSDAY ARE POOR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD RATES MOST OTHER LOCALES. RATES WORSEN
FRIDAY WITH POOR TO FAIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO POOR VENT
RATES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 271146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
446 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS MAY BECOME OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN SPREADS NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR IN WDLY SCT -RA AND VERY HIGH TERRAIN -SN
CENTRAL AND WRN NM. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE SOME OF THE MT TOP
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE AFT
28/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA...DRAGGING SOME MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN STRETCHES OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TURN EASTWARD...TRACKING INTO THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
INTO THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
STATE...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF OLD MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE INCHES CLOSER TO THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...A WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO SO CAL AS AN
OPEN WAVE. UPSTREAM AROUND 130W THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
INTEREST CAN BE SEEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
MOISTURE DID WORK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE...DRAGGING INTO AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM...BUT IT HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRECIPITATE MUCH WITHIN THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXCEED NORMAL VALUES
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS.

INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER BAJA LOW WILL BE MAKING
AN ABRUPT EAST TURN FROM NV TO UT AND CO. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS TURN...WHICH
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAY`S EVEN SHARPER DROP
ALMOST SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL STEER THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALOFT A
BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND FORECAST WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEE AREAS WHERE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT JUXTAPOSED
WITH THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS...AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES INTO THE PLAINS EASTWARD WILL
ONLY HELP THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND TO CONTINUE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCANT AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PEAKS NEAR
THE CO/NM BORDER.

BIG CHANGES THEN UNFOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STOUT
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO NM AND ENCROACHES UPON THE AZ BORDER BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BACK BELOW
AVERAGE IN A HURRY...BUT THIS AIR MASS WILL CERTAINLY NOT HAVE AS
MUCH BITE AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC PREDECESSORS THIS SEASON. SOME
UPSLOPE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL ACTION IS SET
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
INCHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION TO SPREAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT OVER THE RECENTLY ARRIVED COLDER
AIR MASS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES STILL RETAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION ON QPF AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT INVASION
ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND MANY
PLAINS TO LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY OBSERVE
RAIN...BEFORE SNOW BEGINS MIXING IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONSET OF A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH VERY HEALTHY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AND PRECIPITATION
WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. STILL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO GIVE PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WAFFLING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...NAMELY ABOVE 7000 FEET LOOK TO DO QUITE WELL AS FAR
AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED WITH MANY MOUNTAINOUS ZONES
LIKELY NEEDING SOME WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEFTY AMOUNTS. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE TO PULL
ATTENTION TO THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND CAUSES THE LOW TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH CA AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE ONLY MEAGER
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...DESPITE SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH TPW VALUES INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING
NEWD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR OVERALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOW DEPICTED TO TRAVEL
FARTHER NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WEDNESDAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME
COOLING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT MODELS A BIT SLOWER...HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.
DIDN/T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS CAN MANY
TIMES BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT TIMING. BOTH MAX AND
MIN RH TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY
IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE
EVENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY BUT IT/S NOT TERRIBLY
COLD EITHER.

FORECAST VENT RATES THURSDAY ARE POOR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD RATES MOST OTHER LOCALES. RATES WORSEN
FRIDAY WITH POOR TO FAIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO POOR VENT
RATES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 271034
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA...DRAGGING SOME MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF ARIZONA AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
FAR WESTERN STRETCHES OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY WHILE WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL TURN EASTWARD...TRACKING INTO THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW FLURRIES
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
INTO THURSDAY...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE
STATE...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA OF OLD MEXICO. AS THIS FEATURE INCHES CLOSER TO THE
AMERICAN SOUTHWEST...A WIDESPREAD AND LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION
EVENT WILL UNFOLD OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO SO CAL AS AN
OPEN WAVE. UPSTREAM AROUND 130W THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF
INTEREST CAN BE SEEN OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.
MOISTURE DID WORK ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER
DISTURBANCE...DRAGGING INTO AZ AND FAR WESTERN NM...BUT IT HAS
BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRECIPITATE MUCH WITHIN THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. POPS WERE SCALED BACK TODAY...BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
PRODUCING A FEW SPRINKLES TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN EXCEED NORMAL VALUES
BY SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS.

INTO WEDNESDAY...THE REMAINS OF THE FORMER BAJA LOW WILL BE MAKING
AN ABRUPT EAST TURN FROM NV TO UT AND CO. FORECAST MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS TURN...WHICH
SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE THAN THE PAST FEW DAY`S EVEN SHARPER DROP
ALMOST SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL STEER THE STRONGEST GRADIENT ALOFT A
BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE WIND FORECAST WAS REDUCED
SLIGHTLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LEE AREAS WHERE
EARLIER RUNS WERE INDICATING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT JUXTAPOSED
WITH THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH. STILL SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ENSUE AROUND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS...AND DOWNSLOPE BREEZES INTO THE PLAINS EASTWARD WILL
ONLY HELP THE WARMER THAN AVERAGE TREND TO CONTINUE. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE SCANT AND CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PEAKS NEAR
THE CO/NM BORDER.

BIG CHANGES THEN UNFOLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A STOUT
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO NM AND ENCROACHES UPON THE AZ BORDER BEFORE
NOON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET BACK BELOW
AVERAGE IN A HURRY...BUT THIS AIR MASS WILL CERTAINLY NOT HAVE AS
MUCH BITE AS SOME OF THE ARCTIC PREDECESSORS THIS SEASON. SOME
UPSLOPE AND FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING COULD SPAWN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL ACTION IS SET
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT ONCE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
INCHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GREATER SOUTHWEST REGION TO SPREAD
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DYNAMICS ALOFT OVER THE RECENTLY ARRIVED COLDER
AIR MASS. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
PLACEMENT/TRACK OF THE FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE QPF AMOUNTS AND
PLACEMENT. HOWEVER...THE GFS DOES STILL RETAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION ON QPF AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE COLD FRONT INVASION
ON THURSDAY...SNOW LEVELS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH...AND MANY
PLAINS TO LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL INITIALLY OBSERVE
RAIN...BEFORE SNOW BEGINS MIXING IN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE THE ONSET OF A LONG DURATION AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH VERY HEALTHY LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS
ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED IN CLOUDS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME...AND PRECIPITATION
WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE. STILL THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO GIVE PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN
MIXING IN WITH SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WAFFLING OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
ACCUMULATION IMPACTS IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...NAMELY ABOVE 7000 FEET LOOK TO DO QUITE WELL AS FAR
AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CONCERNED WITH MANY MOUNTAINOUS ZONES
LIKELY NEEDING SOME WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR HEFTY AMOUNTS. WILL
ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WITH THIS PACKAGE TO PULL
ATTENTION TO THE LONG DURATION NATURE OF THE EVENT AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINOUS LOCATIONS.

PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND CAUSES THE LOW TO RETREAT SOUTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

UPPER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH CA AND OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO PRODUCE ONLY MEAGER
PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...DESPITE SOME
RELATIVELY HIGH TPW VALUES INDICATED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ADVECTING
NEWD INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NM. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR OVERALL
AGAIN TODAY BUT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED MAINLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS APPEAR A BIT
WEAKER AS THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS NOW DEPICTED TO TRAVEL
FARTHER NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE BEFORE COOLING DOWN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WEDNESDAY SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT
MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION
EVENT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING SOME
COOLING AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO
DEVELOP...BUT MODELS A BIT SLOWER...HOLDING OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.
DIDN/T MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS MODELS CAN MANY
TIMES BE TOO SLOW WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT TIMING. BOTH MAX AND
MIN RH TREND UPWARD THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION. INITIALLY
IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...BUT SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL AS THE
EVENT PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY. A SECOND SURGE OF COOL AIR AT THE
SURFACE NOW LOOKS TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY BUT IT/S NOT TERRIBLY
COLD EITHER.

FORECAST VENT RATES THURSDAY ARE POOR OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WITH FAIR TO GOOD RATES MOST OTHER LOCALES. RATES WORSEN
FRIDAY WITH POOR TO FAIR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND ARE OUTLOOKED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK UNDER LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WHICH LEADS TO POOR VENT
RATES.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. A VERY ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VERY BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
CHANCES NOW SO SLIM FOR A SHOWER IN KGUP WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH IN
TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  32  53  30 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  54  22  54  22 /  10  10   0   5
CUBA............................  56  26  55  23 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  59  29  57  28 /  10   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  57  26  54  24 /  10   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  57  22  55  19 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  59  27  57  26 /  10   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  65  36  65  36 /  10   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  52  20  47  20 /  10  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  52  38  52  33 /   5   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  54  36  52  29 /   5   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  19  45  16 /   5   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  47  23  43  15 /   5  10   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  49  21  45  12 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  51  23  49  22 /   5   5   0   5
MORA............................  57  32  53  27 /   0   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  57  27  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  53  34  52  30 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  31  55  27 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  57  35  59  31 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  36  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  28  63  26 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  30  62  28 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  30  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  59  35  60  34 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  63  34  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  35  54  29 /   5   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  59  34  59  31 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  26  59  23 /   5   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  34  55  28 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  32  57  28 /   5   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  35  62  33 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  60  32  61  28 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  57  27  57  28 /   0   5   0   0
RATON...........................  60  29  58  29 /   0   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  59  29  57  27 /   0   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  61  34  59  26 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  68  40  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  61  33  60  28 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  66  36  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  68  40  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  41  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  66  40  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  67  39  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  40  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  66  34  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  67  37  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  64  36  65  34 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 270543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1043 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. A VERY ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VERY BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
CHANCES NOW SO SLIM FOR A SHOWER IN KGUP WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH IN
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...901 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC HAS RETROGRADED SO FAR WEST
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NM CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DESPITE ONE
LOBE OF ENERGY KICKING OUT ACROSS SOCAL. HRRR AGREES AND PRODUCES
LITTLE QPF ACROSS WESTERN NM AND NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE NAM SUGGEST
NONE. THUS HAVE RATCHETED DOWN POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND EVEN
THEN...THEY STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF ANYONE DOES RECEIVE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM SO
FAR WEST...THE EFFECTS SHOULD BE MINIMALIZED GOING INTO TOMORROW
AS WELL SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
AS ANY REMAINING EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NM/CO BORDER AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO TONIGHTS TEMPS AND SKY COVER. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 270543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1043 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. A VERY ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. VERY BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE DIVIDE.
CHANCES NOW SO SLIM FOR A SHOWER IN KGUP WILL NOT INCLUDE VCSH IN
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...901 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC HAS RETROGRADED SO FAR WEST
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NM CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DESPITE ONE
LOBE OF ENERGY KICKING OUT ACROSS SOCAL. HRRR AGREES AND PRODUCES
LITTLE QPF ACROSS WESTERN NM AND NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE NAM SUGGEST
NONE. THUS HAVE RATCHETED DOWN POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND EVEN
THEN...THEY STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF ANYONE DOES RECEIVE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM SO
FAR WEST...THE EFFECTS SHOULD BE MINIMALIZED GOING INTO TOMORROW
AS WELL SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
AS ANY REMAINING EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NM/CO BORDER AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO TONIGHTS TEMPS AND SKY COVER. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 270401 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
901 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC HAS RETROGRADED SO FAR WEST
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NM CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DESPITE ONE
LOBE OF ENERGY KICKING OUT ACROSS SOCAL. HRRR AGREES AND PRODUCES
LITTLE QPF ACROSS WESTERN NM AND NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE NAM SUGGEST
NONE. THUS HAVE RATCHETED DOWN POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND EVEN
THEN...THEY STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF ANYONE DOES RECEIVE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM SO
FAR WEST...THE EFFECTS SHOULD BE MINIMALIZED GOING INTO TOMORROW
AS WELL SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
AS ANY REMAINING EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NM/CO BORDER AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO TONIGHTS TEMPS AND SKY COVER. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...504 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. AN ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH IN
KGUP TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34








000
FXUS65 KABQ 270401 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
901 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC HAS RETROGRADED SO FAR WEST
THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NM CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DESPITE ONE
LOBE OF ENERGY KICKING OUT ACROSS SOCAL. HRRR AGREES AND PRODUCES
LITTLE QPF ACROSS WESTERN NM AND NEW GUIDANCE FOR THE NAM SUGGEST
NONE. THUS HAVE RATCHETED DOWN POPS FOR TONIGHT...AND EVEN
THEN...THEY STILL MAY BE TOO HIGH. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH IF ANYONE DOES RECEIVE PRECIP. WITH THE SYSTEM SO
FAR WEST...THE EFFECTS SHOULD BE MINIMALIZED GOING INTO TOMORROW
AS WELL SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. HAVE ALSO
LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL
AS ANY REMAINING EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN NORTH OF THE NM/CO BORDER AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
OTHERWISE...MINOR TWEAKS TO TONIGHTS TEMPS AND SKY COVER. UPDATES
ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...504 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. AN ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH IN
KGUP TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34









000
FXUS65 KABQ 270004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
504 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
ALL TERMINAL SITES. AN ISOLD SHRA OR HIGH MT SHSN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE AZ BORDER BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE. WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH IN
KGUP TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 262141
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SW HALF OF
FCST AREA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AND OVERSPREAD REST OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND ESPEC OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 27/08Z. THEREAFTER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER MTN OBSCURATION MOSTLY NEAR AND SW OF A LINE FROM
DULCE TO ROW...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED HIGHER
TERRAIN -SHRA AND -SHSN.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  53  32  53 /  10  20  10   5
DULCE...........................  24  52  27  51 /   5  20  20  10
CUBA............................  29  53  29  49 /   5  20  10   5
GALLUP..........................  33  57  31  56 /  30  20   5   5
EL MORRO........................  30  54  28  52 /  30  20  10   5
GRANTS..........................  28  55  26  54 /  20  20  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  30  56  29  56 /  30  20  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  38  62  37  64 /  40  20   5   5
CHAMA...........................  21  50  21  45 /   5  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  35  50  35  50 /   5  10   5   5
PECOS...........................  32  51  34  51 /   5   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  47  20  45 /   0   5  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  44  22  41 /   0   5  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  12  47  23  45 /   0   5  10  10
TAOS............................  21  49  26  47 /   0   5  10   5
MORA............................  29  54  33  52 /   0   5   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  26  54  28  55 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  32  50  34  50 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  54  31  54 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  32  56  35  56 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  57  36  58 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  27  59  29  59 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  58  31  59 /   5  10   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  28  59  30  61 /  10   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  33  58  35  58 /   5  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  34  61  36  62 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  32  54  34  54 /  10  10   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  32  57  35  57 /  10  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  56  29  56 /   5  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  33  52  34  53 /   5   5   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  29  54  33  55 /  10  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  60  36  60 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  58  34  59 /  20  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  27  55  28  54 /   0   0   5   0
RATON...........................  27  59  29  56 /   0   0   5   0
SPRINGER........................  26  59  29  57 /   0   0   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  32  59  33  58 /   0   0   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  37  66  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  34  60  33  60 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  33  66  37  65 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  33  66  41  65 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  33  67  41  66 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  35  65  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  34  66  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  34  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  30  65  36  69 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  33  66  38  67 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  34  63  37  64 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY











000
FXUS65 KABQ 262141
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
241 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BUT SLOW MOVING STORM DRIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
COASTAL WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH
TUESDAY WILL INTRODUCE SOME SHOWERS IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
TUESDAY. A MIDWEEK BREAK FROM WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END LATE
THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN STORM DRIFTS INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SLOW MOTION WILL PRODUCE LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. COLDER AIR SAGGING SOUTHWARD WILL MOVE SHOWER
COVERAGE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP...WITH
SOUTHERN CLOUDS CONTRASTING WITH NORTHERN CLEARING AS THE WORK
WEEK GETS UNDERWAY IN THE FIRST DAYS OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO TO THE INLAND PACIFIC NORTHWEST RIGHT NOW...AS LARGE
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SITS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WELL
WEST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SPEEDY POLAR JET STREAM FROM WESTERN CANADA TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST PROVIDING THE FEATURE TO THE EAST OF NEW
MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR RIGHT NOW.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AND A START ON
MONDAY. DIFFERENCES EMERGING LATE MONDAY ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN
COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF MOVE THEIR SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH
AUTHORITY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS COLLEAGUES ARE MUCH SLOWER WITH
EASTWARD DRIFT OF SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. GOOD START CONVERTS PACIFIC SYSTEM
CORE INTO A WAVE AND SHEARS THE WAVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT...AND ON INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SIMPLY VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY BY
MIDWEEK...AS QUICK DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
MIGHT TAG THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM...NEXT TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OFF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL
DRIFT AGONIZINGLY SLOWLY TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THURSDAY
NIGHT...TO THE COLORADO VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA FRIDAY...AND
THEN A WOBBLE INTO NORTHERN SONORA ON SATURDAY. STORM WILL PICK UP
STRONG POSITIVE TILT ON SUNDAY...WITH CORE REMAINING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS WILL CLOSE UP INTO A LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND LA
PAZ TO KICK OFF THE WORK WEEK. DIFFERENCES EMERGING INTO
TUESDAY...AS EUROPEAN SYSTEM WILL PICK UP EASTBOUND SPEED...REACH
TEXAS BY TUESDAY AND DROP STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW INTO NEW MEXICO
BY WEDNESDAY. DOMESTIC GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...WILL KEEP SYSTEM
POSITIVELY TILTED BUT MUCH SLOWER...WITH CORE OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY AND MUCH WEAKER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DIFFERENCES FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD ARE
SOMEWHAT MODEST...SO CAN SIMPLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND
KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE RUNS FOR ANY NEEDED IMPROVEMENT ON RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY FOR ONE VERSION OR THE OTHER.

OVERNIGHT...MILDER OVERNIGHT YET AGAIN...AS CLOUD COVER AND SOME
SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTH ACROSS CATRON COUNTY AND ON TOWARD
INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MOST SPOTS WILL PICK UP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...WITH
SOME OVERNIGHT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND
SUMMITS SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATION NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH IN THESE HIGHER
SPOTS. RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT...AND END UP LYING FROM
TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RUN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

FOR TUESDAY...FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO GOING FROM ZERO UNDER THE RIDGE
TO SOMEWHAT STAGNANT SOUTHWEST FLOW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
NORTH BOUND TROUGH CLIPS THE FOUR CORNERS AND SHEARS OFF INTO
WESTERN COLORADO. SURFACE TROUGH FROM WEST KANSAS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL RETURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACES
IN THE EAST...WITH SOME BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH...AND ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LAST OF THE WESTERN ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WITH HIGH COUNTRY SNOWFALL WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN TIER
TUESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE JANUARY NORMALS. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RUN ON THE LOW
SIDE...AND FOCUS ON THE SAN JUAN AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS...AND SOME CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ SUMMITS
BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH TUESDAY EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT PICKING UP SPEED AND VEERING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AS QUICK SHORTWAVE MAKES QUICK TRIP EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WEST WILL SUPPORT SOME NORTHWEST
BREEZES ACROSS NEW MEXICO...WITH BREEZY SPEEDS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS...AND SETTING UP EASTERN
SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR IN THE EAST. LAST OF THE ISOLATE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
FLICKER OVER THE NORTHERN TIER NEAR THE COLORADO LINE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MIDWEEK DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING
STEADY...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON TAP...WARMEST IN
THE EAST.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WILL
INVADE EASTERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AND EXPAND RAPIDLY WEST
AND SOUTH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ACTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE
WARMTH AND INTO CLIMATOLOGICAL CLOSENESS TO NORMAL FOR LATE
JANUARY...A FEW DEGREES COOL IN THE EAST. DAYTIME SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND BUILDING THE NEXT ROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL BECOME BROAD AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHWEST BOUND COLD FRONT
COLLIDES RAPIDLY WITH EASTBOUND TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE NEAR THE FRONT AND UNDER THE BEST
DYNAMICS OVERHEAD...AND THIS COULD SET UP SOME EASTERLY BREEZES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND OUT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THESE BREEZES CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BIG COOL DOWN WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY...A TAD
LESS EXTREME IN THE WEST. STORM CORE OVER NEW MEXICO FRIDAY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AS STORM REMAINS IN
PLACE AND CONTINUES TO KEEP WEATHER UNSETTLED...AND THEN AS NEXT
RAPIDLY SINKING COLD FRONT REINVIGORATES OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...STORM FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
THROUGH SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE
SOUTH WITH CONTINUING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WITH WIND SPEEDS
DROPPING OFF ON SUNDAY AS DIRECTIONS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
ALSO LOOKING AT AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIP EVENT BETWEEN THU NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST
AREA.

OVERALL QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THU MORN...WITH FEW
EXCEPTIONS. POOR VENT RATES WILL STILL REMAIN THE CASE INTO TUE
AS WINDS ALOFT TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT PRETTY
WEAK. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES INTO WED
AREA WIDE. AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA REGION WILL HEAD
INTO CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT AND THE GREAT BASIN TUE...BUT WEAKEN
SOME AS IT DOES SO. WHILE MOISTURE IS COMING INTO NM CURRENTLY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO TUE...IT WILL WILL BE MORE IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND LESS SO DOWN LOW. FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
LOWER WITH AMT OF PRECIP TO BE SQUEEZED OUT TONIGHT THROUGH WED
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF ANY AMTS INTO
THE WETTING CATEGORY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECTED MAINLY ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER MTN
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TUE NIGHT AND WED
MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...BUT MINIMUM RH VALUES TO BE TOO HIGH FOR ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...THOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE THESE AREAS. SOME MODEST VENTILATION RATE
IMPROVEMENTS EXPECTED...MAINLY FROM NW AND SANDIA/MANZANO MTS OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WED. THEREAFTER A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NM...BRINGING SOME COOLING AND A
PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS. GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE
WED NIGHT OR THU MORN AND PERSIST THROUGH THU NIGHT AND PERHAPS FRI.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT
OR SAT. NEITHER OF THESE SURGES SHOULD BE TERRIBLY COLD...BUT WILL
DROP TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL. AS MENTIONED BRIEFLY
AT START OF THIS DISCUSSION WE ARE LOOKING AT INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
STARTING THU NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP SOME AS THIS EVENT GOES ON...BUT STILL LOOKS
LIKE THEY WILL BE RANGING FROM ABOUT 3500 TO ABOUT 5500 FEET EAST
AND GENERALLY BETWEEN 6000 AND A LITTLE OVER 7500 WEST. VENT RATES
IMPROVE THU...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT WORSEN AGAIN
FRIDAY...AND AGAIN PERHAPS IMPROVING MAINLY EAST SAT.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SW HALF OF
FCST AREA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AND OVERSPREAD REST OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND ESPEC OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 27/08Z. THEREAFTER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER MTN OBSCURATION MOSTLY NEAR AND SW OF A LINE FROM
DULCE TO ROW...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED HIGHER
TERRAIN -SHRA AND -SHSN.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  53  32  53 /  10  20  10   5
DULCE...........................  24  52  27  51 /   5  20  20  10
CUBA............................  29  53  29  49 /   5  20  10   5
GALLUP..........................  33  57  31  56 /  30  20   5   5
EL MORRO........................  30  54  28  52 /  30  20  10   5
GRANTS..........................  28  55  26  54 /  20  20  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  30  56  29  56 /  30  20  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  38  62  37  64 /  40  20   5   5
CHAMA...........................  21  50  21  45 /   5  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  35  50  35  50 /   5  10   5   5
PECOS...........................  32  51  34  51 /   5   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  47  20  45 /   0   5  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  44  22  41 /   0   5  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  12  47  23  45 /   0   5  10  10
TAOS............................  21  49  26  47 /   0   5  10   5
MORA............................  29  54  33  52 /   0   5   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  26  54  28  55 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  32  50  34  50 /   5   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  54  31  54 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  32  56  35  56 /  10  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  57  36  58 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  27  59  29  59 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  58  31  59 /   5  10   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  28  59  30  61 /  10   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  33  58  35  58 /   5  10   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  34  61  36  62 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  32  54  34  54 /  10  10   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  32  57  35  57 /  10  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  24  56  29  56 /   5  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  33  52  34  53 /   5   5   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  29  54  33  55 /  10  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  60  36  60 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  58  34  59 /  20  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  27  55  28  54 /   0   0   5   0
RATON...........................  27  59  29  56 /   0   0   5   0
SPRINGER........................  26  59  29  57 /   0   0   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  32  59  33  58 /   0   0   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  37  66  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  34  60  33  60 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  33  66  37  65 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  33  66  41  65 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  33  67  41  66 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  35  65  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  34  66  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  34  65  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  30  65  36  69 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  33  66  38  67 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  34  63  37  64 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY












000
FXUS65 KABQ 261751 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1051 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS SW HALF OF
FCST AREA THROUGH THE AFTN AND EVE AND OVERSPREAD REST OF THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTN AND ESPEC OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH AT LEAST 27/08Z. THEREAFTER THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR SOME HIGHER MTN OBSCURATIONS MOSTLY NEAR AND SW OF A LINE FROM
DULCE TO ROW...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED HIGHER
TERRAIN -SHRA AND -SHSN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEW MEXICO WILL RESIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY ANY
REMNANT SNOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET. LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PLUNGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINS UNFOLDING
WITH ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA...NOT QUITE A
TEXTBOOK REX BLOCK SINCE THE FEATURES ARE SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT.
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BEEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND THE RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY LOSING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER NM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE LATE TODAY AND MORE-SO TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED NORMALS BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN MANY ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LIKELY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL
THE EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...GRADUALLY WORKING INTO REMAINING WESTERN
ZONES. BY THIS TIME THE BAJA LOW WILL BE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN CA DESERTS. SOME LOW
10 PERCENT POPS WERE LEFT IN OVER THE RIO GRANDE ZONES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT AM SKEPTICAL THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR EAST.

INTO TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE INLAND WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN
MORE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO NV. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO STEADILY DISPERSE OVER NM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS ISOLATED
AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED NORMAL TUESDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED...BUT THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE SURFACE WINDS.

IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE FLOW EVOLVES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY STEER ANY LINGERING ENERGY FROM
THE BAJA LOW BACK TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BASICALLY
SKIMMING THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW STRAY SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF NM WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL JUXTAPOSE SOME STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD YIELD SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. TEMPERATURES
WOULD AGAIN RETAIN THEIR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TREND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO NM. THE ORIGIN OF
THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINENTAL...BUT NOT ARCTIC. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT READINGS WILL NOT BE BITTERLY
COLD LIKE SOME FRONTAL INTRUSIONS THIS SEASON. BY
THURSDAY...INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALSO COME INTO
PLAY OVER NM AND THE GREATER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS ANOTHER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT INTO
NM...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS MODEL. A HEALTHY
DOSE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD UNFOLD THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING. SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...AND PERIODICALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS BAJA TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW AND STAY CUT OFF FROM
PARENT FLOW OF EITHER BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM...AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO A HARD TO PINPOINT TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE A SLOW AND
WOBBLY ONE. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MUSCLE IT/S WAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD TONIGHT AND FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL...OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY.

WHAT/S LEFT OF THE LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...IN
PARTICULAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VENT RATES NOTED...MAINLY
FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR
NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO
MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
OUR NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO...BRINGING A
COOL DOWN AND A PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LOW COULD DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST...AND TRACK INTO ARIZONA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE LOW/S MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
BUT THEREAFTER NOT SO GOOD.

VENT RATES IMPROVE THURSDAY...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT
WORSEN AGAIN FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE TO 5 TO
15 OR EVEN 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 261118
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
418 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO CA PULLING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. VFR BEFORE 27/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEW MEXICO WILL RESIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY ANY
REMNANT SNOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET. LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PLUNGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINS UNFOLDING
WITH ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA...NOT QUITE A
TEXTBOOK REX BLOCK SINCE THE FEATURES ARE SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT.
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BEEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND THE RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY LOSING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER NM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE LATE TODAY AND MORE-SO TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED NORMALS BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN MANY ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LIKELY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL
THE EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...GRADUALLY WORKING INTO REMAINING WESTERN
ZONES. BY THIS TIME THE BAJA LOW WILL BE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN CA DESERTS. SOME LOW
10 PERCENT POPS WERE LEFT IN OVER THE RIO GRANDE ZONES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT AM SKEPTICAL THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR EAST.

INTO TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE INLAND WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN
MORE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO NV. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO STEADILY DISPERSE OVER NM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS ISOLATED
AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED NORMAL TUESDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED...BUT THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE SURFACE WINDS.

IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE FLOW EVOLVES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY STEER ANY LINGERING ENERGY FROM
THE BAJA LOW BACK TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BASICALLY
SKIMMING THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW STRAY SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF NM WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL JUXTAPOSE SOME STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD YIELD SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. TEMPERATURES
WOULD AGAIN RETAIN THEIR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TREND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO NM. THE ORIGIN OF
THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINENTAL...BUT NOT ARCTIC. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT READINGS WILL NOT BE BITTERLY
COLD LIKE SOME FRONTAL INTRUSIONS THIS SEASON. BY
THURSDAY...INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALSO COME INTO
PLAY OVER NM AND THE GREATER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS ANOTHER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT INTO
NM...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS MODEL. A HEALTHY
DOSE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD UNFOLD THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING. SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...AND PERIODICALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS BAJA TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW AND STAY CUT OFF FROM
PARENT FLOW OF EITHER BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM...AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO A HARD TO PINPOINT TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE A SLOW AND
WOBBLY ONE. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MUSCLE IT/S WAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD TONIGHT AND FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL...OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY.

WHAT/S LEFT OF THE LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...IN
PARTICULAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VENT RATES NOTED...MAINLY
FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR
NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO
MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
OUR NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO...BRINGING A
COOL DOWN AND A PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LOW COULD DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST...AND TRACK INTO ARIZONA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE LOW/S MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
BUT THEREAFTER NOT SO GOOD.

VENT RATES IMPROVE THURSDAY...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT
WORSEN AGAIN FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE TO 5 TO
15 OR EVEN 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 261118
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
418 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
INCREASING HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 AS UPPER LOW TRACKS INTO CA PULLING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. VFR BEFORE 27/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEW MEXICO WILL RESIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY ANY
REMNANT SNOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET. LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PLUNGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINS UNFOLDING
WITH ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA...NOT QUITE A
TEXTBOOK REX BLOCK SINCE THE FEATURES ARE SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT.
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BEEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND THE RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY LOSING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER NM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE LATE TODAY AND MORE-SO TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED NORMALS BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN MANY ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LIKELY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL
THE EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...GRADUALLY WORKING INTO REMAINING WESTERN
ZONES. BY THIS TIME THE BAJA LOW WILL BE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN CA DESERTS. SOME LOW
10 PERCENT POPS WERE LEFT IN OVER THE RIO GRANDE ZONES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT AM SKEPTICAL THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR EAST.

INTO TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE INLAND WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN
MORE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO NV. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO STEADILY DISPERSE OVER NM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS ISOLATED
AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED NORMAL TUESDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED...BUT THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE SURFACE WINDS.

IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE FLOW EVOLVES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY STEER ANY LINGERING ENERGY FROM
THE BAJA LOW BACK TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BASICALLY
SKIMMING THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW STRAY SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF NM WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL JUXTAPOSE SOME STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD YIELD SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. TEMPERATURES
WOULD AGAIN RETAIN THEIR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TREND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO NM. THE ORIGIN OF
THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINENTAL...BUT NOT ARCTIC. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT READINGS WILL NOT BE BITTERLY
COLD LIKE SOME FRONTAL INTRUSIONS THIS SEASON. BY
THURSDAY...INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALSO COME INTO
PLAY OVER NM AND THE GREATER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS ANOTHER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT INTO
NM...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS MODEL. A HEALTHY
DOSE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD UNFOLD THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING. SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...AND PERIODICALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS BAJA TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW AND STAY CUT OFF FROM
PARENT FLOW OF EITHER BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM...AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO A HARD TO PINPOINT TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE A SLOW AND
WOBBLY ONE. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MUSCLE IT/S WAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD TONIGHT AND FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL...OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY.

WHAT/S LEFT OF THE LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...IN
PARTICULAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VENT RATES NOTED...MAINLY
FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR
NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO
MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
OUR NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO...BRINGING A
COOL DOWN AND A PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LOW COULD DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST...AND TRACK INTO ARIZONA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE LOW/S MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
BUT THEREAFTER NOT SO GOOD.

VENT RATES IMPROVE THURSDAY...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT
WORSEN AGAIN FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE TO 5 TO
15 OR EVEN 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 261026
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NEW MEXICO WILL RESIDE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY...ALLOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MELT AWAY ANY
REMNANT SNOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PUSH SOME MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH SNOW
LEVELS BEING CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOSTLY ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET. LOOK FOR DRIER CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SOME
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PLUNGE INTO THE STATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT BEGINS UNFOLDING
WITH ANOTHER EASTERN PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DEFINED BY A CONTINENTAL RIDGE NORTH OF A
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AMERICA...NOT QUITE A
TEXTBOOK REX BLOCK SINCE THE FEATURES ARE SHOWING SOME MOVEMENT.
THE SUBTROPICAL LOW HAS BEEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD...AND THE RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY LOSING AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS OVER NM
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS
OF THE STATE LATE TODAY AND MORE-SO TONIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED NORMALS BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES IN MANY ZONES. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND TOP-DOWN MOISTENING WILL LIKELY NOT COMMENCE UNTIL
THE EVENING WHEN SOME SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES...GRADUALLY WORKING INTO REMAINING WESTERN
ZONES. BY THIS TIME THE BAJA LOW WILL BE WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN
WAVE...MAKING ITS WAY INLAND TO THE SOUTHERN CA DESERTS. SOME LOW
10 PERCENT POPS WERE LEFT IN OVER THE RIO GRANDE ZONES OF OUR
FORECAST AREA...BUT AM SKEPTICAL THAT ANYTHING WILL MAKE IT THAT
FAR EAST.

INTO TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE INLAND WAVE WILL WEAKEN EVEN
MORE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO NV. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
TO STEADILY DISPERSE OVER NM...AND POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AS ISOLATED
AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN MOST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
EXCEED NORMAL TUESDAY. A WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE
ESTABLISHED...BUT THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRECLUDE ANY NOTABLE SURFACE WINDS.

IT IS INTERESTING HOW THE FLOW EVOLVES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY STEER ANY LINGERING ENERGY FROM
THE BAJA LOW BACK TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BASICALLY
SKIMMING THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS MAY KEEP A FEW STRAY SHOWERS GOING
OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES OF NM WEDNESDAY...AND THE STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL JUXTAPOSE SOME STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WOULD YIELD SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM. TEMPERATURES
WOULD AGAIN RETAIN THEIR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TREND WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO NM. THE ORIGIN OF
THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE CONTINENTAL...BUT NOT ARCTIC. LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL INTO THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES...BUT READINGS WILL NOT BE BITTERLY
COLD LIKE SOME FRONTAL INTRUSIONS THIS SEASON. BY
THURSDAY...INTERESTING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL ALSO COME INTO
PLAY OVER NM AND THE GREATER SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS ANOTHER EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE REGION. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MAKE A TAP INTO SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ADVECTING IT INTO
NM...ESPECIALLY ACCORDING TO THE MORE BULLISH GFS MODEL. A HEALTHY
DOSE OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD UNFOLD THURSDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING. SNOW WOULD BE CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...AND PERIODICALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THIS BAJA TROUGH LOOKS TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW AND STAY CUT OFF FROM
PARENT FLOW OF EITHER BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM...AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO A HARD TO PINPOINT TRAJECTORY THAT WILL BE A SLOW AND
WOBBLY ONE. THIS COULD INCREASE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION OVER NM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE A WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AN UPPER
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL MUSCLE IT/S WAY INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
DEEPER AND MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD TONIGHT AND FROM
THE WEST CENTRAL...OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TUESDAY.

WHAT/S LEFT OF THE LOW WILL THEN PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY WITH MEAGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN...AND WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE NORTH AND EAST...IN
PARTICULAR THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SOME
DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST DUE TO THE STRONGER
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...AND SOME IMPROVEMENTS IN VENT RATES NOTED...MAINLY
FROM THE SANDIA AND MANZANO MTS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND FAR
NORTHEAST. MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POOR TO
MARGINALLY FAIR RATES WEDNESDAY. AS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM TRACKS TO
OUR NORTHEAST...A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO...BRINGING A
COOL DOWN AND A PERIOD OF MOISTENING EAST TO WEST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE RGV APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD OCCUR BY SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER UPPER LOW COULD DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST...AND TRACK INTO ARIZONA...INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT OF THE LOW/S MOVEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY
BUT THEREAFTER NOT SO GOOD.

VENT RATES IMPROVE THURSDAY...DUE TO STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS...BUT
WORSEN AGAIN FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY SLIDE TO 5 TO
15 OR EVEN 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  33  54  31 /   0  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  55  26  53  25 /   0   5  20  20
CUBA............................  58  30  55  27 /   0  10  20   5
GALLUP..........................  58  34  57  31 /   0  30  20   5
EL MORRO........................  55  30  55  28 /   0  40  20   5
GRANTS..........................  54  27  55  25 /   0  30  20   5
QUEMADO.........................  57  29  57  28 /   5  30  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  65  38  62  37 /  10  40  20   5
CHAMA...........................  52  21  52  20 /   0   5  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  37  50  37 /   0   5  10   5
PECOS...........................  54  32  51  34 /   0   5  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  15  47  19 /   0   0   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  47  12  44  20 /   0   0  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  50   8  46  22 /   0   0   5  10
TAOS............................  52  20  49  26 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  55  29  55  32 /   0   0   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  56  25  55  27 /   0   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  53  31  50  35 /   0   5  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  29  54  30 /   0   5  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  31  56  34 /   0  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  58  33  58  36 /   0  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  23  60  26 /   0  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  60  25  59  28 /   0  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  25  60  28 /   0  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  58  33  58  35 /   0  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  58  33  62  35 /   0  20  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  31  53  33 /   0  10  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  32  57  34 /   0  10  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  22  56  28 /   0   5  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  33  53  33 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  27  55  32 /   0  10  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  32  61  35 /   0  10  10   0
RUIDOSO.........................  59  30  59  33 /   0  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  54  24  56  26 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  61  26  60  28 /   0   0   0  10
SPRINGER........................  60  26  59  29 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  59  32  59  33 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  66  36  67  39 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  58  34  61  34 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  33  67  37 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  64  34  68  40 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  33  69  42 /   0   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  36  66  41 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  63  35  67  40 /   0   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  35  66  40 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  61  30  66  36 /   0   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  63  34  67  38 /   0  10   5   0
ELK.............................  60  33  64  36 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 260540 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1040 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DRIFTING PACIFIC STORM OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL SWING SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST MEXICO
THURSDAY WILL PUSH WIDE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS A SOLID COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY WEEKEND STORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SEPARATING MUSCULAR TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO EAST
TEXAS...AND CLOSED LOW ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE PICTURE...WITH DOME
CENTER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND COMPANION CENTER OVER FAR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EAST AND SOUTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEST AND
NORTH.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN FEATURE PLACEMENT EMERGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
GOOD START TODAY KEEPS NEW MEXICO BETWEEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RIDGE OVER THE STATE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE INLAND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS OF TONIGHT. RIDGE CORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING UPSTREAM FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN RUN CLOSER TO ZONAL
BY MIDWEEK...AS EAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW REMAINS STATIONARY.
TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL RUN STATIONARY
ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LEAVING NEW MEXICO UNDER THE
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE PULL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM CORE. THIS
STORM WILL STAY ABSOLUTELY PARKED THROUGH MONDAY OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME EUROPEAN ECMWF HINT OF OPENING THE TROUGH INTO A
WAVE AND STARTING SOME EASTWARD DRIFT AS THE WEEK GETS STARTED.
DOMESTIC GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING WEST OF NEW MEXICO...PARKED...OVER
SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND OFFERS LITTLE BASIS FOR ANY CHANGE
IN THE BROADER WEATHER PATTERN.

OVERNIGHT...LITTLE FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE HEART OF THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE HIGH DOME EXTENDING FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE...3 TO 8
DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JANUARY.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS
ALL OF NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH...AS SURFACE DOME
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
MORE WARMING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM
DEPARTURES ON HAND FOR ALL BUT THE COOLER SOUTH...WHERE 3 TO 8
DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CROSS THE BOOT
HEEL AND AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BETWEEN THE ARIZONA LINE AND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH VERY MODEST
SNOWFALL ON TAP FOR THE CHUSKAS AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...QUICK BLIP SYSTEM WILL RISE NORTHWARD...MOVING STORM
COVERAGE OUT OF ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
DAY FOR VERY MODEST RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE WEST...WITH SOME
EVENING HIGH COUNTRY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO HIGH PEAKS...AND THE SAN JUAN AND
TUSAS MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT SOME RETURN TO BREEZINESS FOR WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO. BREEZES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
WARMTH FOR TUESDAY...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES OVER THE
EAST..AND 6 TO 12 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES OVER THE WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO WESTERLY AS EASTERLY SURFACE
LOW SHIFT EASTWARD TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL..AND 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON HAND
FOR THE WEST. WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FEW QUICK HIT
DISTURBANCES MAY CROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SPAWN SOME ISOLATED SNOW COVERAGE OVER SPOTS IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WIND
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND OVER THE ADJACENT EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PACIFIC STORM WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO NORTHWEST MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BECOME CLOUDY AND RAINY
IN WIDE CIRCULATION OF CORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLAMS WESTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND THEN REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIPS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BIG COOLING
TREND IN PLAY...AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NORMAL AND BELOW ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN STEADY REDUCTION THROUGH SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE HEART OF THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP LATE WEEK...EARLY WEEKEND...AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LIGHT BREEZES AND POOR VENTILATION WILL REMAIN THE CASE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN PRETTY
LIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MON NIGHT
FURTHER ERODING THE SNOW PACK. THE LATTER WILL CONTINUE TO ADD A
BOOST TO DEW POINTS AND RH...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN USUAL
DIURNAL SWINGS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. TONIGHT`S RH RECOVERY WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN MOST AREAS. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE BAJA CA REGION...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ADVECT SOME MOISTURE AND SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY
RAIN...INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATER MON NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA WITH MOST PRECIP DISAPPEARING FROM
THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW TO NE
TUE AND STRENGTHENS SOME WHICH WILL...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THIS WILL IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES
SOME...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND ALSO
A FEW POCKETS OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES IN
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...MEANING ALL ZONES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. WED WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH SOMEWHAT
GREATER COVERAGE OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES EAST HALF AND
PERHAPS SLIGHT REDUCTION OF SAME OUT WEST.

BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO EAST NM AND
SPILL WESTWARD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE AZ BORDER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER...THEY WILL BE
DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL SLIGHTLY THU BUT MORE SO FRI ACROSS THE
SE THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. FCST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE BETWEEN
THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH MAY LAST INTO SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 260540 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1040 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MST SUN JAN 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE DRIFTING PACIFIC STORM OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL SWING SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TO START THE WORK WEEK...WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM ARRIVING IN NORTHWEST MEXICO
THURSDAY WILL PUSH WIDE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...AS A SOLID COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO. EARLY WEEKEND STORMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...BROAD NEGATIVELY TILTED RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
SEPARATING MUSCULAR TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO EAST
TEXAS...AND CLOSED LOW ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE PICTURE...WITH DOME
CENTER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND COMPANION CENTER OVER FAR
EASTERN NEW MEXICO ALONG INTERSTATE 40. TEMPERATURES TODAY RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE JANUARY NORMALS...WITH A FEW
DEGREES COOLER EAST AND SOUTH...AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER WEST AND
NORTH.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME
SMALL DIFFERENCES IN FEATURE PLACEMENT EMERGING HEADING INTO TUESDAY.
GOOD START TODAY KEEPS NEW MEXICO BETWEEN TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH RIDGE OVER THE STATE
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MEXICO ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO THE INLAND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS OF TONIGHT. RIDGE CORE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
EASTWARD BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING UPSTREAM FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO TO BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN RUN CLOSER TO ZONAL
BY MIDWEEK...AS EAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW REMAINS STATIONARY.
TROUGH WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN ARIZONA BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...BUT WILL RUN STATIONARY
ONCE AGAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND LEAVING NEW MEXICO UNDER THE
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE PULL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM CORE. THIS
STORM WILL STAY ABSOLUTELY PARKED THROUGH MONDAY OF THE NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME EUROPEAN ECMWF HINT OF OPENING THE TROUGH INTO A
WAVE AND STARTING SOME EASTWARD DRIFT AS THE WEEK GETS STARTED.
DOMESTIC GFS KEEPS EVERYTHING WEST OF NEW MEXICO...PARKED...OVER
SONORA AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND OFFERS LITTLE BASIS FOR ANY CHANGE
IN THE BROADER WEATHER PATTERN.

OVERNIGHT...LITTLE FLOW ALOFT UNDER THE HEART OF THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE HIGH DOME EXTENDING FROM WESTERN COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING ON THE WARM SIDE...3 TO 8
DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE JANUARY.

FOR MONDAY...RIDGE ALOFT REMAINING IN PLACE FROM WEST TEXAS ACROSS
ALL OF NEW MEXICO TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH...AS SURFACE DOME
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NEW MEXICO UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALOFT.
MORE WARMING OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...WITH 8 TO 15 DEGREE WARM
DEPARTURES ON HAND FOR ALL BUT THE COOLER SOUTH...WHERE 3 TO 8
DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD. PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL CROSS THE BOOT
HEEL AND AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO BY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN THE WEST GRADUALLY
INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BETWEEN THE ARIZONA LINE AND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN...WITH VERY MODEST
SNOWFALL ON TAP FOR THE CHUSKAS AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...QUICK BLIP SYSTEM WILL RISE NORTHWARD...MOVING STORM
COVERAGE OUT OF ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER
DAY FOR VERY MODEST RAINFALL COVERAGE OVER THE WEST...WITH SOME
EVENING HIGH COUNTRY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER THE JEMEZ
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTO HIGH PEAKS...AND THE SAN JUAN AND
TUSAS MOUNTAINS ACROSS EASTERN RIO ARRIBA COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT SOME RETURN TO BREEZINESS FOR WEST TO
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NEW
MEXICO. BREEZES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONTINUING
WARMTH FOR TUESDAY...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES OVER THE
EAST..AND 6 TO 12 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES OVER THE WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERING TO WESTERLY AS EASTERLY SURFACE
LOW SHIFT EASTWARD TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH THE EAST 8 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL..AND 5 TO 10 DEGREE WARM DEPARTURES ON HAND
FOR THE WEST. WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A FEW QUICK HIT
DISTURBANCES MAY CROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
SPAWN SOME ISOLATED SNOW COVERAGE OVER SPOTS IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. WIND
DIRECTIONS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND OVER THE ADJACENT EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PACIFIC STORM WILL DRAW
CLOSER TO NORTHWEST MEXICO ON THURSDAY...BECOME CLOUDY AND RAINY
IN WIDE CIRCULATION OF CORE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA
ON FRIDAY AS COLD FRONT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLAMS WESTWARD
ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND THEN REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AS SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIPS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BIG COOLING
TREND IN PLAY...AS TEMPERATURES DROP BACK TO NORMAL AND BELOW ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN STEADY REDUCTION THROUGH SATURDAY TO 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE HEART OF THE WEEKEND. BREEZY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SNOW WILL SET UP LATE WEEK...EARLY WEEKEND...AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AS THE STORM MOVES THROUGH...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

LIGHT BREEZES AND POOR VENTILATION WILL REMAIN THE CASE ACROSS ALL
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NM INTO MON NIGHT AS WINDS ALOFT REMAIN PRETTY
LIGHT AS WELL. SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM INTO MON NIGHT
FURTHER ERODING THE SNOW PACK. THE LATTER WILL CONTINUE TO ADD A
BOOST TO DEW POINTS AND RH...WITH SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN USUAL
DIURNAL SWINGS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. TONIGHT`S RH RECOVERY WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN MOST AREAS. LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
A LITTLE WEST OF THE BAJA CA REGION...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ADVECT SOME MOISTURE AND SOME MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY
RAIN...INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATER MON NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE BAJA LOW WILL HAVE SHIFTED NORTH
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN AREA WITH MOST PRECIP DISAPPEARING FROM
THE STATE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SW TO NE
TUE AND STRENGTHENS SOME WHICH WILL...ALONG WITH AN INCREASED SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...GENERATE BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND TO THE LEE
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THIS WILL IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES
SOME...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR AND ALSO
A FEW POCKETS OUT WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES IN
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY...MEANING ALL ZONES WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. WED WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR WITH SOMEWHAT
GREATER COVERAGE OF FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES EAST HALF AND
PERHAPS SLIGHT REDUCTION OF SAME OUT WEST.

BETWEEN WED NIGHT AND THU A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO EAST NM AND
SPILL WESTWARD BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE AZ BORDER. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE DRAMATICALLY COLDER...THEY WILL BE
DROPPING BACK BELOW NORMAL SLIGHTLY THU BUT MORE SO FRI ACROSS THE
SE THREE QUARTERS OF FCST AREA. FCST MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL DEVELOP AREA WIDE BETWEEN
THU NIGHT AND FRI WHICH MAY LAST INTO SAT OR SAT NIGHT. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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