000
FXUS65 KABQ 220930
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SONORA ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO WILL MAKE GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS WEAK COLD FRONT WORKS INTO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING AND STALLS OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSTREAM...LARGE SPRAWLING CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH CIRCULATION EXPANDING TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN
NEVADA...WITH INCREASES IN COVERAGE ON TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DIFFERENCES IN UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION SHOWING UP BY MIDWEEK THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PLAUSIBLE
AND ACCEPTABLE CONSENSUS SHIFTS RIDGE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND MOVES IT EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE TONIGHT. CIRCULATION
ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL WORK INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...AND THIS BASIC SET UP WILL PERSIST PRETTY MUCH UNABATED
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLOSED LOW WILL
RECEIVE UPSTREAM KICK FROM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIAN CHAIN...AND THIS WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO ARIZONA LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES EMERGING
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...AS ECMWF MOVES THIS WAVE THROUGH QUICKLY
AND LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND ON
THE CANADIAN WEST COAST. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
AGGRESSIVE...DIGGING ELONGATED CLOSED LOW SPANNING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ANCHORING GUSTY TROUGH
BASE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
SHOOTS THROUGH THE FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DIFFERENCES ARE
SIGNIFICANT...AS NEW MEXICO WILL BE IN THE CALM DOLDRUMS PER ECMWF
OR INTO ANOTHER LATE WEEK WINDBAG PER GFS. HAVE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND KEPT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AND WILL WATCH FUTURE RUNS WITH INTEREST FOR BETTER
CONSENSUS.
FOR TODAY...RIDGE ALOFT MOVING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THE
DAY TODAY AND SUPPORTING STRONG WARMING TREND. DAYTIME MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS. SOME
ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND ADJACENT PLAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER RATON RIDGE...WITH LITTLE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS CRANKING UP OVER THE ARIZONA
LINE AND EASTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN SPOTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST TO THE HEART OF TEXAS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION ABOUT SPRAWLING CLOSED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WORKS INTO NEW MEXICO. COLD FRONT PENETRATING
THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS INTO
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...WITH RESULTING UP SLOPE FLOW...MOISTURE
ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE DRY LINE. STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A TUCUMCARI
TO RUIDOSO LINE MAY BECOME STRONG THROUGH THURSDAY...AS LIFTED
INDICES FALL TO 4 BELOW...AND MU CAPE PUSHES UP TO 1000 J PER KG
OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. THURSDAY SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH WIND SPEEDS A LITTLE LOWER OVER THE EAST.
FOR FRIDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED OUT JUST INSIDE THE EASTERN BORDER
OF NEW MEXICO...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE. DRY LINE WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE
EAST...WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIFTED INDICES MOVING LOWER...DOWN TO 7 BELOW IN
SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER...AS MU CAPE DOUBLES TO NEARLY 2000
J PER KG IN THE SAME SPOTS. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN
PLAY...WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS BORDER. AWAY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 WILL MEET
UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES OVER THE
WESTERN TIER. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE MAY NORMALS.
FOR SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TURNING SPEEDS UP A NOTCH AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM EASTERN WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. SOUTHWEST
AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL BE PRETTY COMMON STATEWIDE
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER AND OVER
TH EASTERN AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE DRY LINE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIFTED INDICES FALLING TO 6
BELOW...AND MU CAPE HANGING IN THERE AROUND 2000 J PER KG.
RAINFALL WILL RUN HEAVIER...WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
EXPANDING OUT OF THE EASTERN TIER INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN PLAIN AND FOOTHILLS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT
LITTLE CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY NORMALS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF WAVES PROPAGATED BY PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOST SUBSTANTIAL WAVE SLATED
FOR ARRIVAL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERN
SURFACE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
BROAD AREAS OF BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AND OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...DURING THE DAY. BREEZES WILL HELP SET UP ANOTHER
DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...AND ADJACENT EASTERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH TROUGH AXIS DEFINING DRY LINE
BOUNDARY...EASTERN PLAINS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT FOCUS TO WEST
TEXAS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY TO END THE CONVECTIVE EXCITEMENT FOR
NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY. VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND IN THE
EAST...AS DAYTIME HIGHS WARM TO 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS....AND A MORE MODEST 3 TO 8 DEGREE POSITIVE DEPARTURE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CENTRAL AND WEST.
SHY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INTERESTING FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH AREAS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER EXTREME WEST TODAY AND OVER A BROADER AREA OF THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE NOT SLAM DUNK
RED FLAG CONDITIONS...VERY DRY AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH DEEP MIXING. WILL MAINTAIN THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY...A MUCH
MORE PRONOUNCED GRADIENT IN SURFACE MOISTURE LOOKS TO FINALLY SET UP
WITH POSSIBLE DRY LINE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WHILE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT IS EDGING IN FROM THE WEST. THUS...WARMER TODAY
ALL ZONES WITH TEMPS AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SINGLE
DIGIT RH VALUES EXPECTED MOST ZONES...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. DEEP MIXING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT
VENTILATION BUT HIGH HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST. A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EXTREME
WEST WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST. OVERNIGHT...RH
RECOVERIES TO BE POOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. A WEAK EASTERN
WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND SOUTH WINDS INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL USHER IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
ADDITIONAL WARMING ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF NEW
MEXICO AND THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST GRADIENT STRENGTHENS TO OUR
WEST. CONTINUED VERY DRY AND UNSTABLE WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH AND HIGH
HAINES OF 6 ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST AND SUPER HAINES ACROSS THE WEST.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE WATCH FOR ZONES 101...105 AND 103 AND DAY SHIFT
MAY EXPAND THIS TO INCLUDE ZONES 106 AND 107. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
WESTWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST...BUT MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE AND THE DRY LINE LOOKS TO SET UP.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE BEST DAY OF CONTRAST WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS MAINTAINING GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. DECENT CAPE AS WELL AND LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST AND
STILL VERY DRY WITH SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES
DEEP MIXING AND SUPER HAINES AS WELL.
UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE SATURDAY AND LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED DRY WEST
AND MAYBE A DOWN TICK IN ACTIVITY EAST BUT ANOTHER DAY OF DRY LINE
STORMS IS POSSIBLE. EXTENDED MODELS DEEPEN THE TROUGH ON
SUNDAY...GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVELY...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER EAST. LOOKS DRY ALL ZONES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
05
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS DEPARTED EAST OF NEW
MEXICO...AND SHOWERS WERE NOT ABLE TO SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
EVEN INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. BREEZES WILL BE RESTRENGTHENING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY
22/2100UTC.
52
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 84 48 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 78 37 82 38 / 0 0 0 5
CUBA............................ 80 42 84 41 / 0 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 80 40 81 40 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 76 37 78 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 81 42 83 43 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 81 46 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 85 43 86 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 70 35 75 37 / 0 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 74 51 78 51 / 0 0 5 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 75 42 78 44 / 5 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 65 36 67 39 / 5 5 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 69 32 72 35 / 5 5 10 20
TAOS............................ 77 39 80 42 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 75 46 77 48 / 5 5 10 20
ESPANOLA........................ 82 49 86 49 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 79 49 80 51 / 0 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 48 86 50 / 0 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 59 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 85 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 86 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 85 55 89 55 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 52 91 54 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 86 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 92 59 96 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 81 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 82 53 86 53 / 0 0 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 80 52 84 52 / 0 0 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 80 51 83 49 / 0 0 5 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 81 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 56 89 54 / 0 0 0 5
RUIDOSO......................... 77 53 80 52 / 0 0 5 10
CAPULIN......................... 76 47 72 51 / 10 5 20 30
RATON........................... 81 43 79 48 / 10 5 20 30
SPRINGER........................ 82 44 81 49 / 5 5 20 30
LAS VEGAS....................... 80 48 81 49 / 0 0 10 20
CLAYTON......................... 83 50 76 55 / 5 5 20 40
ROY............................. 83 50 80 53 / 0 0 20 20
CONCHAS......................... 90 54 87 57 / 0 5 10 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 89 57 88 59 / 0 0 10 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 92 59 92 63 / 0 5 20 30
CLOVIS.......................... 89 57 91 60 / 0 5 20 30
PORTALES........................ 90 59 92 63 / 0 5 20 30
FORT SUMNER..................... 92 58 92 61 / 0 5 10 20
ROSWELL......................... 95 60 97 64 / 0 5 10 20
PICACHO......................... 90 57 92 57 / 0 0 5 10
ELK............................. 85 56 87 57 / 0 0 5 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
SHY
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY HAS DEPARTED EAST OF NEW MEXICO...AND SHOWERS
WERE NOT ABLE TO SURVIVE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT EVEN INTO THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. BREEZES WILL BE RESTRENGTHENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KT COMMON BY 22/2100UTC.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...845 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DROP MENTION OF THUNDER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GIVEN LACK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND
ANTICIPATED CONTINUED DIURNAL DOWNTREND. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER UP
ACROSS THE WEST SLIGHTLY GIVEN MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM OVER
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT BUT WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY
AREAS. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND
SOUTH. BETTER RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 220245 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
845 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO DROP MENTION OF THUNDER NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST GIVEN LACK OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND
ANTICIPATED CONTINUED DIURNAL DOWNTREND. ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER UP
ACROSS THE WEST SLIGHTLY GIVEN MID CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM OVER
ARIZONA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...543 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND MOST OF THESE WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP BEFORE THEN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PRODUCING LITTLE
RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET...RESTRENGTHENING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN LESS SHOWERS/STORMS.
52
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT BUT WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY
AREAS. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND
SOUTH. BETTER RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
11
000
FXUS65 KABQ 212343
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
A FEW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND MOST OF THESE WILL FADE AWAY AFTER SUNSET. A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM MAY ALSO DEVELOP BEFORE THEN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED...PRODUCING LITTLE
RAINFALL AND SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 40 KT. ELSEWHERE GUSTS
TO 25 TO 30 KT WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH AT SUNSET...RESTRENGTHENING
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH EVEN LESS SHOWERS/STORMS.
52
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY
OUT BUT WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY
AREAS. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND
SOUTH. BETTER RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR
EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 212121
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER NE NM THIS MORNING HAS EJECTED
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS PLAYING A ROLE IN THE
LACK OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STORMS HAVE
FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.
TEMPS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD ON
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE. SOME BREEZES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET DAY IN
STORE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE HOVERING NEAR FAR NE NM...WHICH
COULD SPARK A STORM...BUT NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THAT SCENARIO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FURTHER INTO NE NM ON
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS BRINGS THE BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER INTO THE
NE THAN THE NAM OR EURO DOES. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S BEHIND THE FRONT. MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
GULF MOISTURE BACK TOWARD EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS WELL. THUS...STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NE NM AND
ALONG DOWN THE NM/TX BORDER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
THE MOISTURE/DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT.
AGAIN...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH BRING THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH THE NAM/EURO KEEP IT ALONG/EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. IF ANY MOISTURE MAKES IT TO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...IT WILL BE VERY SHALLOW...AND WILL EASILY MIX BACK OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SUGGEST A DRYLINE WILL
SET UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE AMPLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH THE DRYLINE MAY SET UP A
BIT FURTHER EAST THAN ON FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY
AND BEYOND. AS WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT START TO INCREASE AS THE DRY
SLOT MOVES IN...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE DRYLINE WILL MIX EASTWARD TO
THE NM/TX BORDER EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS IN THE ABQ CWA. HOWEVER...THAT WILL ALSO MEAN DRY AND
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKING AT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO FOR THE UPCOMING
SEVERAL DAYS. WIND HIGHLIGHTS MAINLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
ARIZONA/COLORADO BORDERS FAVORING ZONES 105 AND 101 WED/THU/FRI.
ALSO LOOKING AT SOME STRONGER WINDS AT TIMES EXTENDING FROM SOCORRO
COUNTY UP TO LAS VEGAS AND A LITTLE BEYOND TO THE NORTH. BASED ON
THE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE...DECIDED TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ZONES 105/101 AND 103 THURSDAY.
A SHORTER DURATION RFW EVENT AS IT CONCERNS WIND BUT SOME OF THOSE
ZONES COULD VERY WELL SEE SUPER HAINES SO A CRITICAL DAY. THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND COULD SEE SOME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. MODELS STILL SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THEIR DEPICTION OF
THE MID LEVEL FLOW SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THAT. THE DRYLINE AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FOUND ACROSS THE EAST WILL CREATE SOME INTERESTING
FORECASTING THERE AND PERHAPS EVEN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
FRONT RANGE. STAY TUNED ON THAT.
AS FAR AS REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WINDS HAVE PREVAILED AS COMPARED
TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DRY OUT BUT
WAS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MORE REST OF TODAY COMBINED WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WILL FALL IN MANY AREAS.
THUS...REDUCING HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO CRITICAL LEVELS MANY AREAS.
THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AND LEADING TO SOME POOR RECOVERIES WEST AND SOUTH. BETTER
RECOVERIES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EAST.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A VIGOROUS WEST COAST TROUGH NUDGES SLIGHTLY INLAND. WINDS WILL
PICK UP AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL STRENGTHEN AND OVERSPREAD THE
ENTIRE AREA. MIXING EACH AFTERNOON WILL BRING DEWPOINTS MUCH LOWER
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE THERE BY
A FEW DEGREES. EASTERN AREAS ARE A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE
DRY LINE. THINKING LOTS OF SINGLE DIGITS FOR SEVERAL HOURS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA. PERHAPS AN EASTERLY
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SO SLIGHTLY HIGHER THERE. DRYLINE
SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SO BEEFED UP DEWPOINTS SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THAT. THUS
HUMIDITY VALUES THUR AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN THIRD OR SO. SINGLE DIGITS WESTWARD AND LONG DURATION
FOLLOWING POOR RECOVERIES. SOME DRYLINE STORMS COULD PRODUCE A MIX
OF WET/DRY ACROSS THE EAST INCLUDING PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES. BETTER CHANCE OF WETTER AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY
VERSUS WED.
MIXING HEIGHTS ARE OFF THE CHARTS BOTH WED AND THU AND THIS WILL BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST AREAS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
HAINES VALUES A SOLID 6 PRETTY MUCH BOTH DAYS. SEEING A FAIR BIT OF
SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY LATER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THURSDAY SHOULD SEE THE MOST WIND AS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. NOT A RIP SNORTING WIND BUT A TURBULENT MIXING WIND THAT
HAS WIDE GUST SPREADS AND IS HELTER SKELTER.
DECIDED TO BRING MOISTURE...ALBEIT SHALLOW FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENT
MODELS INDICATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THINK THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION
OR STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
MOISTURE WESTWARD FURTHER THAN MODELS THINK. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
CONTINUE THOUGH PRETTY MUCH WESTERN HALF THUR NIGHT.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AND CREATE SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD. SUPER HAINES IS SHOWING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS WITH EVEN PERHAPS A SIGNIFICANT DRY LIGHTNING
SIGNATURE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THIS WOULD BE DUE TO A
MIX OF WET AND DRY STORMS AS THE SURFACE DRYLINE TRIES TO STAY OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
PLAINS AND VERY DRY AIR WEST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A DYNAMIC MIX OUT PERIOD ON SATURDAY AS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHES THE DRYLINE EASTWARD BACK INTO TEXAS. THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WOULD TAKE OVER MORE OF THE AREA WITH VERY
LOW HUMIDITIES AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY. BREEZES WOULD CONTINUE
PERHAPS SETTING UP SOME LOCALIZED RED FLAG CONDITIONS. MIXING
HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED TO LOWER SOME BUT SUSPECT THEY WILL COME IN
HIGHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THAT
PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND UPPER WINDS ALOFT DURING THE WEEKEND PERIOD...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
SO HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW HOW LONG THE STRONGER WIND FLOWS WOULD
CONTINUE BUT SUSPECT SUNDAY WOULD BE BREEZY TOO AND THAT COULD LAST
INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH LESS AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY. SOME OF THE MODELS STILL
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO. CURRENTLY
MOISTURE ANALYSIS BEARS THIS OUT SO INCLUDING VCSH FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT LVS THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING LATER ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATELY DEVELOPED CU FIELD NEAR THEM.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 35 78 37 82 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 38 81 42 84 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 35 80 39 81 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 31 76 36 78 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 81 41 83 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 81 45 82 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 85 42 86 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 32 70 34 75 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 49 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 46 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 40 75 42 78 / 5 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 32 65 35 67 / 10 5 5 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 69 32 72 / 10 5 5 10
TAOS............................ 37 78 38 80 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 43 75 46 77 / 10 5 5 10
ESPANOLA........................ 44 83 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 79 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 43 83 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 55 83 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 54 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 87 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 51 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 54 92 58 96 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 49 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 80 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 46 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 51 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 49 77 53 80 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 41 77 46 72 / 20 10 5 20
RATON........................... 39 81 43 79 / 10 10 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 41 83 44 82 / 10 5 5 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 80 48 81 / 0 0 0 10
CLAYTON......................... 47 84 50 76 / 20 5 5 20
ROY............................. 45 84 50 80 / 10 0 0 20
CONCHAS......................... 50 90 53 86 / 0 0 5 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 50 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 54 92 59 92 / 0 0 5 20
CLOVIS.......................... 51 90 56 91 / 0 0 5 20
PORTALES........................ 52 91 59 92 / 0 0 5 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 53 92 57 92 / 0 0 5 10
ROSWELL......................... 56 95 60 97 / 0 0 5 10
PICACHO......................... 52 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 5
ELK............................. 52 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 5
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-103-105.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 211743
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH LESS AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS TODAY. SOME OF THE MODELS STILL
SHOW ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO. CURRENTLY
MOISTURE ANALYSIS BEARS THIS OUT SO INCLUDING VCSH FOR A COUPLE
HOURS AT LVS THIS AFTERNOON...THINKING LATER ALTHOUGH LATEST VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATELY DEVELOPED CU FIELD NEAR THEM.
OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER AND LIGHTER WINDS AS COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1113 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE
DEFINITELY INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT LAST NIGHT.
THOUGH THEY SHOULD MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE...WHERE
SOME CU ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
.PREV DISCUSSION...416 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE MORN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND TO LESSER DEGREE FARTHER
N...ALSO TO ADD THUNDER AND QPF TO E CENTRAL SECTIONS. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS SFC FRONT DROPS EVEN FARTHER TO S AND W
OF THE STORMS.
43
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
UPPER LOW NE NM TAKING ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING ACROSS NE NM. DECENT
AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN NEAR AND A LITTLE WAYS N OF
THE TUCUMCARI AND LOGAN VICINITY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...NOT
MUCH LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS NE
CHAVES COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS AREA SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 4 MORE HOURS...BUT DID NEED TO INCREASE LOW POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND NE NM. THIS LOW WILL STILL EXIT THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DROPPING S AND A
LITTLE TO THE W ACROSS THE THE E CENTRAL TO SE PLAINS INTERFACE.
THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT FOR THE MOST PART LATE TODAY AND THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
MISERLY AMTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND MAINLY NE NM...
BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR. SOME UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL LOOKS IN
PLAY FOR WED...WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS...AND ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE
LEAST LIKELY PRECIP DAY OF THE WEEK.
THU INTO AT LEAST THE WEEK WILL BRING THE DIURNAL DRY LINE
SLOSHOMATIC...GENERALLY PUSHING WESTWARD AT NIGHT INTO MAYBE MID
MORN BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK EAST LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER TO A DEGREES JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
MIX OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE IS MORE
AGREEMENT THAN NOT THAT IT WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE PROBABLY BE
HELD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
43
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING
SHORTWAVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
SONORA...AND THIS WAVE WILL SWEEP CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKING SHAPE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SITS AND SPINS...WITH CIRCULATION COVERAGE EXPANDING
STEADILY AS THE WORK WEEK WEARS ON. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NEW MEXICO WITH GRADUAL BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL SHEAR
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
INVADE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF NORMAL FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINING
SCATTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN ANY
OF THESE SHOWERS. A FEW AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS NEAR HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED VERY DRY...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WEST AND SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UPPER TEENS AND 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.
NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS...AND GOOD NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE STATE AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...SQUASHING DOWN CONVECTION TO
SPOTTY AND ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE WILL SPILL OVER THE CHUSKAS AND EXTEND
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
ROCK BOTTOM MINIMUM HUMIDITIES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES STARTING TO EXTEND
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL NEED
WATCHING GOING FORWARD FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. BROAD
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH BETTER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST INTO TEXAS...AS COLD FRONT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BULGE WESTWARD AND DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY LINE MAY FOCUS
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING BROAD UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED VERY DRY AS SOUTHWEST
GUSTS DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THESE AREAS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES GOING FORWARD. VERY
HIGH HAINES INDICES ALSO MAP OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. VENTILATION REMAINING EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEHIND THE INVADING
COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 10 DEGREE OR MORE DEPARTURES OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...QUASI STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND CIRCULATION COVERAGE INTO NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PLAINS DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN
AFTERNOON REGULAR VISITOR...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIER...WHERE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE EST WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
PCT. TEMPERATURE PROFILE RUNNING STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
MAY NORMALS. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO EL PASO WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...TO END
THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 211713 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1113 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE
DEFINITELY INCREASED ACROSS THE EAST BEHIND THE FRONT LAST NIGHT.
THOUGH THEY SHOULD MIX OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE BUMPED UP
POPS JUST A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE...WHERE
SOME CU ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...541 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY INTO TX BY 18Z AS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE FROM 20Z ONWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ISOLD
COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF TAFS FOR LVS ONCE THE CURRENT
ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE STATE. RIDGE FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADA BORDER WILL SLIDE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIN CLOUD DECK CROSSING INTO WESTERN NM AROUND
00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
03Z THIS EVENING AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA BKN/OVC150.
SHY
.PREV DISCUSSION...416 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE MORN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND TO LESSER DEGREE FARTHER
N...ALSO TO ADD THUNDER AND QPF TO E CENTRAL SECTIONS. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS SFC FRONT DROPS EVEN FARTHER TO S AND W
OF THE STORMS.
43
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
UPPER LOW NE NM TAKING ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING ACROSS NE NM. DECENT
AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN NEAR AND A LITTLE WAYS N OF
THE TUCUMCARI AND LOGAN VICINITY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...NOT
MUCH LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS NE
CHAVES COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS AREA SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 4 MORE HOURS...BUT DID NEED TO INCREASE LOW POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND NE NM. THIS LOW WILL STILL EXIT THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DROPPING S AND A
LITTLE TO THE W ACROSS THE THE E CENTRAL TO SE PLAINS INTERFACE.
THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT FOR THE MOST PART LATE TODAY AND THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
MISERLY AMTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND MAINLY NE NM...
BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR. SOME UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL LOOKS IN
PLAY FOR WED...WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS...AND ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE
LEAST LIKELY PRECIP DAY OF THE WEEK.
THU INTO AT LEAST THE WEEK WILL BRING THE DIURNAL DRY LINE
SLOSHOMATIC...GENERALLY PUSHING WESTWARD AT NIGHT INTO MAYBE MID
MORN BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK EAST LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER TO A DEGREES JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
MIX OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE IS MORE
AGREEMENT THAN NOT THAT IT WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE PROBABLY BE
HELD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
43
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING
SHORTWAVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
SONORA...AND THIS WAVE WILL SWEEP CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKING SHAPE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SITS AND SPINS...WITH CIRCULATION COVERAGE EXPANDING
STEADILY AS THE WORK WEEK WEARS ON. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NEW MEXICO WITH GRADUAL BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL SHEAR
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
INVADE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF NORMAL FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINING
SCATTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN ANY
OF THESE SHOWERS. A FEW AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS NEAR HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED VERY DRY...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WEST AND SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UPPER TEENS AND 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.
NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS...AND GOOD NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE STATE AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...SQUASHING DOWN CONVECTION TO
SPOTTY AND ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE WILL SPILL OVER THE CHUSKAS AND EXTEND
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
ROCK BOTTOM MINIMUM HUMIDITIES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES STARTING TO EXTEND
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL NEED
WATCHING GOING FORWARD FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. BROAD
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH BETTER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST INTO TEXAS...AS COLD FRONT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BULGE WESTWARD AND DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY LINE MAY FOCUS
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING BROAD UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED VERY DRY AS SOUTHWEST
GUSTS DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THESE AREAS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES GOING FORWARD. VERY
HIGH HAINES INDICES ALSO MAP OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. VENTILATION REMAINING EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEHIND THE INVADING
COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 10 DEGREE OR MORE DEPARTURES OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...QUASI STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND CIRCULATION COVERAGE INTO NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PLAINS DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN
AFTERNOON REGULAR VISITOR...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIER...WHERE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE EST WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
PCT. TEMPERATURE PROFILE RUNNING STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
MAY NORMALS. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO EL PASO WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...TO END
THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 211141 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY INTO TX BY 18Z AS COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD IN ITS
WAKE. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BUILD
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE FROM 20Z ONWARD THIS AFTERNOON. WITH ISOLD
COVERAGE...HAVE LEFT THIS OUT OF TAFS FOR LVS ONCE THE CURRENT
ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE STATE. RIDGE FROM
NORTHWEST MEXICO ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADA BORDER WILL SLIDE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO BY TONIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIN CLOUD DECK CROSSING INTO WESTERN NM AROUND
00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
03Z THIS EVENING AND OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA BKN/OVC150.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...416 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE MORN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND TO LESSER DEGREE FARTHER
N...ALSO TO ADD THUNDER AND QPF TO E CENTRAL SECTIONS. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS SFC FRONT DROPS EVEN FARTHER TO S AND W
OF THE STORMS.
43
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
UPPER LOW NE NM TAKING ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING ACROSS NE NM. DECENT
AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN NEAR AND A LITTLE WAYS N OF
THE TUCUMCARI AND LOGAN VICINITY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...NOT
MUCH LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS NE
CHAVES COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS AREA SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 4 MORE HOURS...BUT DID NEED TO INCREASE LOW POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND NE NM. THIS LOW WILL STILL EXIT THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DROPPING S AND A
LITTLE TO THE W ACROSS THE THE E CENTRAL TO SE PLAINS INTERFACE.
THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT FOR THE MOST PART LATE TODAY AND THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
MISERLY AMTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND MAINLY NE NM...
BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR. SOME UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL LOOKS IN
PLAY FOR WED...WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS...AND ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE
LEAST LIKELY PRECIP DAY OF THE WEEK.
THU INTO AT LEAST THE WEEK WILL BRING THE DIURNAL DRY LINE
SLOSHOMATIC...GENERALLY PUSHING WESTWARD AT NIGHT INTO MAYBE MID
MORN BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK EAST LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
DRY LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER TO A DEGREES JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
MIX OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE IS MORE
AGREEMENT THAN NOT THAT IT WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE PROBABLY BE
HELD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
43
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING
SHORTWAVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
SONORA...AND THIS WAVE WILL SWEEP CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKING SHAPE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SITS AND SPINS...WITH CIRCULATION COVERAGE EXPANDING
STEADILY AS THE WORK WEEK WEARS ON. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NEW MEXICO WITH GRADUAL BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL SHEAR
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
INVADE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF NORMAL FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINING
SCATTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN ANY
OF THESE SHOWERS. A FEW AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS NEAR HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED VERY DRY...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WEST AND SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UPPER TEENS AND 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.
NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS...AND GOOD NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE STATE AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...SQUASHING DOWN CONVECTION TO
SPOTTY AND ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE WILL SPILL OVER THE CHUSKAS AND EXTEND
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
ROCK BOTTOM MINIMUM HUMIDITIES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES STARTING TO EXTEND
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL NEED
WATCHING GOING FORWARD FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. BROAD
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH BETTER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST INTO TEXAS...AS COLD FRONT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BULGE WESTWARD AND DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY LINE MAY FOCUS
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING BROAD UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED VERY DRY AS SOUTHWEST
GUSTS DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THESE AREAS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES GOING FORWARD. VERY
HIGH HAINES INDICES ALSO MAP OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. VENTILATION REMAINING EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEHIND THE INVADING
COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 10 DEGREE OR MORE DEPARTURES OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...QUASI STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND CIRCULATION COVERAGE INTO NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PLAINS DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN
AFTERNOON REGULAR VISITOR...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIER...WHERE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE EST WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
PCT. TEMPERATURE PROFILE RUNNING STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
MAY NORMALS. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO EL PASO WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...TO END
THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 211016
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
416 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE MORN POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES AND TO LESSER DEGREE FARTHER
N...ALSO TO ADD THUNDER AND QPF TO E CENTRAL SECTIONS. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AS SFC FRONT DROPS EVEN FARTHER TO S AND W
OF THE STORMS.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...345 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013...
UPPER LOW NE NM TAKING ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING ACROSS NE NM. DECENT
AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN NEAR AND A LITTLE WAYS N OF
THE TUCUMCARI AND LOGAN VICINITY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...NOT
MUCH LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS NE
CHAVES COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS AREA SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 4 MORE HOURS...BUT DID NEED TO INCREASE LOW POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND NE NM. THIS LOW WILL STILL EXIT THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DROPPING S AND A
LITTLE TO THE W ACROSS THE THE E CENTRAL TO SE PLAINS INTERFACE.
THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT FOR THE MOST PART LATE TODAY AND THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
MISERLY AMTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND MAINLY NE NM...
BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR. SOME UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL LOOKS IN
PLAY FOR WED...WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS...AND ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE
LEAST LIKELY PRECIP DAY OF THE WEEK.
THU INTO AT LEAST THE WEEK WILL BRING THE DIURNAL DRYLINE
SLOSHOMATIC...GENERALLY PUSHING WESTWARD AT NIGHT INTO MAYBE MID
MORN BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK EAST LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER TO A DEGREES JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
MIX OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE IS MORE
AGREEMENT THAN NOT THAT IT WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE PROBABLY BE
HELD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
43
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING
SHORTWAVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
SONORA...AND THIS WAVE WILL SWEEP CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKING SHAPE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SITS AND SPINS...WITH CIRCULATION COVERAGE EXPANDING
STEADILY AS THE WORK WEEK WEARS ON. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NEW MEXICO WITH GRADUAL BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL SHEAR
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
INVADE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF NORMAL FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINING
SCATTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN ANY
OF THESE SHOWERS. A FEW AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS NEAR HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED VERY DRY...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WEST AND SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UPPER TEENS AND 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.
NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS...AND GOOD NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE STATE AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...SQUASHING DOWN CONVECTION TO
SPOTTY AND ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE WILL SPILL OVER THE CHUSKAS AND EXTEND
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
ROCK BOTTOM MINIMUM HUMIDITIES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES STARTING TO EXTEND
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL NEED
WATCHING GOING FORWARD FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. BROAD
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH BETTER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST INTO TEXAS...AS COLD FRONT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BULGE WESTWARD AND DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY LINE MAY FOCUS
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING BROAD UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED VERY DRY AS SOUTHWEST
GUSTS DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THESE AREAS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES GOING FORWARD. VERY
HIGH HAINES INDICES ALSO MAP OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. VENTILATION REMAINING EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEHIND THE INVADING
COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 10 DEGREE OR MORE DEPARTURES OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...QUASI STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND CIRCULATION COVERAGE INTO NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PLAINS DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN
AFTERNOON REGULAR VISITOR...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIER...WHERE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE EST WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
PCT. TEMPERATURE PROFILE RUNNING STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
MAY NORMALS. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO EL PASO WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...TO END
THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
SHY
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE KLVS AND KTCC
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 210945
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
345 AM MDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW NE NM TAKING ITS SWEET TIME IN MOVING ACROSS NE NM. DECENT
AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE RAIN NEAR AND A LITTLE WAYS N OF
THE TUCUMCARI AND LOGAN VICINITY WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN...NOT
MUCH LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND...EXTENDING SOUTH AS FAR AS NE
CHAVES COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS AREA SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 4 MORE HOURS...BUT DID NEED TO INCREASE LOW POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL AND NE NM. THIS LOW WILL STILL EXIT THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL DROPPING S AND A
LITTLE TO THE W ACROSS THE THE E CENTRAL TO SE PLAINS INTERFACE.
THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT FOR THE MOST PART LATE TODAY AND THE LOW
LVL MOISTURE THAT WAS BROUGHT IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
MISERLY AMTS OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW
SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND MAINLY NE NM...
BUT NOTHING REALLY MAJOR. SOME UPPER LVL RIDGING STILL LOOKS IN
PLAY FOR WED...WITH WARMER AFTN TEMPS...AND ALSO LIKELY TO BE THE
LEAST LIKELY PRECIP DAY OF THE WEEK.
THU INTO AT LEAST THE WEEK WILL BRING THE DIURNAL DRYLINE
SLOSHOMATIC...GENERALLY PUSHING WESTWARD AT NIGHT INTO MAYBE MID
MORN BEFORE BEING PUSHED BACK EAST LATER IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SOME STRONG OR EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...
BUT MODELS STILL DIFFER TO A DEGREES JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL
MIX OUT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE IS MORE
AGREEMENT THAN NOT THAT IT WILL BECOME LESS ACTIVE PROBABLY BE
HELD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST NEAR THE STATE LINE.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON SUNDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MIDWEEK OF
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EXTENDING
SHORTWAVE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN
SONORA...AND THIS WAVE WILL SWEEP CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS BY MIDDAY TODAY. UPSTREAM RIDGE TAKING SHAPE FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PARKED OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SITS AND SPINS...WITH CIRCULATION COVERAGE EXPANDING
STEADILY AS THE WORK WEEK WEARS ON. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF
NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS ALOFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER NEW MEXICO WITH GRADUAL BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORTWAVE MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TUESDAY WILL SHEAR
RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO ACROSS MIDWEEK INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AS BROAD RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
FOR TODAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
INVADE THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF NORMAL FOR MOST
SPOTS...WITH SHOWER COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINING
SCATTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST. LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS IN ANY
OF THESE SHOWERS. A FEW AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS...WITH GUSTY AND
SHIFTING WINDS NEAR HIGH BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED VIRGA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED VERY DRY...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALLING
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS WEST AND SOUTH AND ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...UPPER TEENS AND 20S OVER THE NORTH AND EAST.
NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES IN
MOST SPOTS...AND GOOD NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER THE STATE AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...SQUASHING DOWN CONVECTION TO
SPOTTY AND ISOLATED MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
BREEZES NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE WILL SPILL OVER THE CHUSKAS AND EXTEND
TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
ROCK BOTTOM MINIMUM HUMIDITIES PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR GUSTS AND LOW HUMIDITIES STARTING TO EXTEND
INTO NEW MEXICO FOR WEDENSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL NEED
WATCHING GOING FORWARD FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. BROAD
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH POOR TO FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...MUCH BETTER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS BORDER.
FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE AXIS MOVING EAST INTO TEXAS...AS COLD FRONT OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BULGE WESTWARD AND DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. DRY LINE MAY FOCUS
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTING BROAD UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
THE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CONTINUED VERY DRY AS SOUTHWEST
GUSTS DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. THESE AREAS WILL BEAR
WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER WATCHES GOING FORWARD. VERY
HIGH HAINES INDICES ALSO MAP OUT OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. VENTILATION REMAINING EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHEAST...WHERE CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE BEHIND THE INVADING
COLD FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF THE DAYTIME
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST...BUT ALL POINTS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 10 DEGREE OR MORE DEPARTURES OVER THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...QUASI STATIONARY CLOSED LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND CIRCULATION COVERAGE INTO NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. EASTERN PLAINS DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME AN
AFTERNOON REGULAR VISITOR...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN TIER...WHERE INFLUX
OF MOISTURE FROM THE EST WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S
PCT. TEMPERATURE PROFILE RUNNING STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
MAY NORMALS. DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM EASTERN COLORADO ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS TO EL PASO WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST BREEZES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE ON SUNDAY...TO END
THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE
EASTERN SLOPES AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH WINDS TRENDING DOWN OVER
THE NEXT 24HRS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE KLVS AND KTCC
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY LIGHT PRECIP EXPECTED WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 76 45 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 70 34 79 35 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 72 37 80 40 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 75 34 80 39 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 71 33 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 75 38 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 74 42 81 45 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 81 43 85 44 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 33 70 35 / 10 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 69 50 76 52 / 5 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 66 48 74 51 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 39 75 43 / 10 5 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 57 33 65 36 / 20 10 5 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 61 28 70 32 / 10 10 5 5
TAOS............................ 69 34 77 38 / 5 5 5 5
MORA............................ 66 42 75 44 / 5 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 73 44 82 47 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 71 44 79 49 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 73 43 82 47 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 74 52 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 76 54 85 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 78 49 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 78 50 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 79 48 87 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 77 51 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 85 54 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 71 48 80 52 / 5 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 72 49 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 73 44 82 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 71 45 81 50 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 74 49 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 51 85 56 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 50 78 55 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 66 42 78 46 / 10 10 10 5
RATON........................... 70 39 81 44 / 10 5 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 71 40 82 44 / 10 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 70 42 80 45 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 47 83 49 / 10 10 5 5
ROY............................. 70 45 83 50 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 77 50 88 52 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 78 51 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 79 51 92 54 / 10 0 0 5
CLOVIS.......................... 78 52 90 56 / 10 0 0 5
PORTALES........................ 79 52 91 59 / 0 0 0 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 80 53 92 57 / 0 0 0 5
ROSWELL......................... 84 54 96 59 / 0 0 0 5
PICACHO......................... 81 53 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 53 84 58 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 210042 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
642 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH...TO
JUST NORTH OF I-40 OR SO. VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NW NM...INDUCING HIGH BASED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE. FIVE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH JUST MEASURED
AT THE SANTA FE AIRPORT WITH SOME HIGH BASED CELLS MOVING THROUGH
THERE. EXPECTING A FEW MORE MODERATE SHOWERS/STORMS BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNSET.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...521 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH-BASED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SHORT-LIVED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH WINDS TRENDING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
SOUTHWEST PROGRESS TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT AT KLVS AND
KTCC.
11
.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
MEAGER...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
FRONT/BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM...AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT AS WELL. FURTHER
SOUTH...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AS THESE WINDS DIMINISH...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...THUS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EAST...AND HAVE SPREAD SOME SMALL
POPS SOUTHWARD TO QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS
MIXING ENSUES DURING THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT AND
WHAT MOISTURE THAT WAS USHERED IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
INACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE
DRYLINE. ON THURSDAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS
THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A BETTER PUSH
WESTWARD...AND MAY EVEN BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MIX BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JUST HOW
FAR EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MIX OUT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS WITH THE RED FLAG EXPIRING AT 8
PM MDT. CURRENTLY SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WITH STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE ESTANCIA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. EXPECTING HIGHER RECOVERIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT WITH WEAKER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EAST. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FIRE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
AROUND SUNSET. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME MEASURABLE IF NOT
EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
BOTH IN TERMS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VERY
DEEP MIXING...HIGH HAINES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THIS WILL BE
COMPLICATED SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL PUNCH IN AND
SLOSH BACK AND FORTH. SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP WITHIN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST HALF BUT INCREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS PORTRAYED BY
THE MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AND SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND POOR
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND STRENGTHEN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT BETWEEN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE EAST WITH 10 TO
15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AT TIMES.
AS FAR AS WIND AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT WAY...STRONGEST BREEZES
SHOULD BE FELT ACROSS THE FAR WEST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY AREA FOUND BETWEEN LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS OVER TO
SANTA ROSA ON THOSE SAME DAYS...BASICALLY THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RETREATING DRY LINE AS IT MIXES EAST. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME DUE TO COVERAGE AREA BUT WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT ZONE 105 IN
THE COMING DAYS. IT APPEARS THE MODELS LOWER THE WIND SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THEN BUMP READINGS BACK ON SUNDAY. DID
DECIDE TO ADJUST READINGS SLIGHTLY UP FOR SUNDAY BUT ECMWF AND GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY AT ODDS WITH THEIR MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN ECMWF. OVERALL THOUGH...ECMWF AND GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE OVERALL FLOW WITH
WEST COAST TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO HOW THE JET DIGS INTO THE TROUGH.
AS FAR AS THE DRYLINE IS CONCERNED...DECIDED TO BUMP DEWPOINTS UP
NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE AND ALSO PUSHED THE HIGHER READINGS
FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT. TYPICALLY IS THE CASE AND MODELS SOMETIMES
DONT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS
EVENINGS CONVECTION. BUT THEN DRASTICALLY DRY THE DEWPOINTS OUT AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST. THUS CREATING QUITE A RH CHANGE DURING THE DAY
PERIODS WED AND THURSDAY. DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG
THIS RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WOULD BE OF THE WETTING KIND. TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...RIGHT NOW
GOING ISOLATED.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 202321 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH-BASED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SHORT-LIVED MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH WINDS TRENDING
DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
SOUTHWEST PROGRESS TONIGHT AND BRING A WIND SHIFT AT KLVS AND
KTCC.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
MEAGER...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
FRONT/BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM...AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT AS WELL. FURTHER
SOUTH...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AS THESE WINDS DIMINISH...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...THUS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EAST...AND HAVE SPREAD SOME SMALL
POPS SOUTHWARD TO QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS
MIXING ENSUES DURING THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT AND
WHAT MOISTURE THAT WAS USHERED IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
INACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE
DRYLINE. ON THURSDAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS
THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A BETTER PUSH
WESTWARD...AND MAY EVEN BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MIX BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JUST HOW
FAR EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MIX OUT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS WITH THE RED FLAG EXPIRING AT 8
PM MDT. CURRENTLY SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WITH STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE ESTANCIA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. EXPECTING HIGHER RECOVERIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT WITH WEAKER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EAST. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FIRE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
AROUND SUNSET. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME MEASURABLE IF NOT
EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
BOTH IN TERMS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VERY
DEEP MIXING...HIGH HAINES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THIS WILL BE
COMPLICATED SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL PUNCH IN AND
SLOSH BACK AND FORTH. SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP WITHIN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST HALF BUT INCREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS PORTRAYED BY
THE MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AND SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND POOR
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND STRENGTHEN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT BETWEEN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE EAST WITH 10 TO
15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AT TIMES.
AS FAR AS WIND AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT WAY...STRONGEST BREEZES
SHOULD BE FELT ACROSS THE FAR WEST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY AREA FOUND BETWEEN LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS OVER TO
SANTA ROSA ON THOSE SAME DAYS...BASICALLY THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RETREATING DRY LINE AS IT MIXES EAST. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME DUE TO COVERAGE AREA BUT WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT ZONE 105 IN
THE COMING DAYS. IT APPEARS THE MODELS LOWER THE WIND SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THEN BUMP READINGS BACK ON SUNDAY. DID
DECIDE TO ADJUST READINGS SLIGHTLY UP FOR SUNDAY BUT ECMWF AND GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY AT ODDS WITH THEIR MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN ECMWF. OVERALL THOUGH...ECMWF AND GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE OVERALL FLOW WITH
WEST COAST TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO HOW THE JET DIGS INTO THE TROUGH.
AS FAR AS THE DRYLINE IS CONCERNED...DECIDED TO BUMP DEWPOINTS UP
NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE AND ALSO PUSHED THE HIGHER READINGS
FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT. TYPICALLY IS THE CASE AND MODELS SOMETIMES
DONT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS
EVENINGS CONVECTION. BUT THEN DRASTICALLY DRY THE DEWPOINTS OUT AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST. THUS CREATING QUITE A RH CHANGE DURING THE DAY
PERIODS WED AND THURSDAY. DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG
THIS RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WOULD BE OF THE WETTING KIND. TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...RIGHT NOW
GOING ISOLATED.
50
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUBBLE UP LIKE
YESTERDAY AND TEND TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OR NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS AS IT
CROSSES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH AT GUP AND ABQ BUT LIKING THE CHANCES
MORE AND MORE AT SAF/LVS AND ULTIMATELY TCC. USED A TEMPO AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
MTN TOP OBSCD WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL
TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 202112
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT
ACROSS NORTHERN NM. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
MEAGER...GENERALLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
FRONT/BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST NM...AND A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED ALONG IT AS WELL. FURTHER
SOUTH...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. AS THESE WINDS DIMINISH...THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD. SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...THUS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE EAST...AND HAVE SPREAD SOME SMALL
POPS SOUTHWARD TO QUAY AND CURRY COUNTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. AS
MIXING ENSUES DURING THE DAY...THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY WASH OUT AND
WHAT MOISTURE THAT WAS USHERED IN WILL MOSTLY SCOUR OUT. ANY
RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT. THEN...SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
INACTIVE DAY OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND WE WILL BE WATCHING THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE
DRYLINE. ON THURSDAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL JUST BE MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...WHILE DRY AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS
THE WEST. THURSDAY NIGHT...THE GULF MOISTURE WILL MAKE A BETTER PUSH
WESTWARD...AND MAY EVEN BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MIX BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. JUST HOW
FAR EAST REMAINS IN QUESTION...THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOSH BACK AND FORTH OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL MIX OUT
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS WITH THE RED FLAG EXPIRING AT 8
PM MDT. CURRENTLY SEEING SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY WITH STRONG WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS...EXTENDING
BACK INTO THE ESTANCIA BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. EXPECTING HIGHER RECOVERIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT WITH WEAKER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EAST. POOR RECOVERIES WILL
BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FIRE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP DURING THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
AROUND SUNSET. A MODERATE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND IMPACT THE NORTHERN MTNS AND
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SOME MEASURABLE IF NOT
EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
BOTH IN TERMS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL AS VERY
DEEP MIXING...HIGH HAINES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY. THIS WILL BE
COMPLICATED SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL PUNCH IN AND
SLOSH BACK AND FORTH. SUPER HAINES SHOWING UP WITHIN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST HALF BUT INCREASING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IS PORTRAYED BY
THE MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD AND SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITY AND POOR
RECOVERY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND STRENGTHEN TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS...BOTH DAY AND NIGHT BETWEEN
5 TO 10 DEGREES ON AVERAGE. A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE EAST WITH 10 TO
15 DEGREE ABOVE NORMAL READINGS AT TIMES.
AS FAR AS WIND AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS THAT WAY...STRONGEST BREEZES
SHOULD BE FELT ACROSS THE FAR WEST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY AREA FOUND BETWEEN LAS VEGAS TO CLINES CORNERS OVER TO
SANTA ROSA ON THOSE SAME DAYS...BASICALLY THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RETREATING DRY LINE AS IT MIXES EAST. WILL NOT BE ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME DUE TO COVERAGE AREA BUT WILL LOOK CLOSELY AT ZONE 105 IN
THE COMING DAYS. IT APPEARS THE MODELS LOWER THE WIND SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT THEN BUMP READINGS BACK ON SUNDAY. DID
DECIDE TO ADJUST READINGS SLIGHTLY UP FOR SUNDAY BUT ECMWF AND GFS
ARE SLIGHTLY AT ODDS WITH THEIR MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. GFS IS A BIT
STRONGER THAN ECMWF. OVERALL THOUGH...ECMWF AND GFS FAIRLY SIMILAR
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ON THEIR DEPICTION OF THE OVERALL FLOW WITH
WEST COAST TROUGH AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW DUE TO HOW THE JET DIGS INTO THE TROUGH.
AS FAR AS THE DRYLINE IS CONCERNED...DECIDED TO BUMP DEWPOINTS UP
NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE AND ALSO PUSHED THE HIGHER READINGS
FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT. TYPICALLY IS THE CASE AND MODELS SOMETIMES
DONT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM THE PREVIOUS
EVENINGS CONVECTION. BUT THEN DRASTICALLY DRY THE DEWPOINTS OUT AS THE
DRYLINE MIXES EAST. THUS CREATING QUITE A RH CHANGE DURING THE DAY
PERIODS WED AND THURSDAY. DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG
THIS RETREATING DRYLINE AND MOST LIKELY FAVOR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
SOME OF THE STORMS WOULD BE OF THE WETTING KIND. TOO EARLY TO SAY
HOW MUCH COVERAGE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES...RIGHT NOW
GOING ISOLATED.
50
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUBBLE UP LIKE
YESTERDAY AND TEND TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OR NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS AS IT
CROSSES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH AT GUP AND ABQ BUT LIKING THE CHANCES
MORE AND MORE AT SAF/LVS AND ULTIMATELY TCC. USED A TEMPO AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
MTN TOP OBSCD WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL
TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 42 76 45 84 / 10 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 30 71 35 79 / 20 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 34 73 39 80 / 10 5 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 33 75 37 80 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 30 70 35 75 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 35 76 39 81 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 39 75 44 81 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 81 44 85 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 32 64 32 70 / 20 10 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 42 69 50 76 / 10 5 0 0
PECOS........................... 41 66 48 74 / 5 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 34 68 40 75 / 20 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 31 57 34 65 / 30 20 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 26 61 29 70 / 20 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 33 70 35 77 / 10 5 5 5
MORA............................ 37 66 42 75 / 10 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 40 75 45 82 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 43 71 46 77 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 41 74 43 82 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 51 76 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 50 77 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 49 79 50 86 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 47 77 51 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 46 80 48 86 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 47 78 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 50 86 55 93 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 42 74 50 82 / 0 5 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 44 75 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 42 72 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 40 71 46 80 / 0 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 44 74 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 46 78 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 43 70 50 77 / 0 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 38 66 43 78 / 30 10 10 5
RATON........................... 38 71 40 81 / 20 10 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 39 72 40 82 / 10 10 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 37 71 43 80 / 10 5 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 44 74 48 84 / 20 10 10 0
ROY............................. 43 71 45 83 / 10 5 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 48 79 50 90 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 47 80 51 88 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 49 80 53 92 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 50 79 52 90 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 50 80 52 91 / 5 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 51 80 54 91 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 56 85 55 95 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 50 82 53 91 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 48 77 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 201755
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BUBBLE UP LIKE
YESTERDAY AND TEND TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OR NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS AS IT
CROSSES OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NM LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. GOING WITH VCSH AT GUP AND ABQ BUT LIKING THE CHANCES
MORE AND MORE AT SAF/LVS AND ULTIMATELY TCC. USED A TEMPO AND
ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS TO BETWEEN 30 TO 35 KT WITH THAT ACTIVITY.
MTN TOP OBSCD WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALL
TERMINAL SITES WILL HAVE GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH
AFTERNOON.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013...
WHAT IS LEFT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NE NM IS NOT LIKELY TO
MOVE TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO N NM.
THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE COMBO...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
ALOFT YIELDING FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL ALL HELP TO
GENERATE A CROP OF ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD ACTUALLY
PRODUCE ENOUGH PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
STILL FAIRLY LOW AND AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN 1 OR 2
TENTHS AND MOST CASES LESS. DID EXTEND LOW NEAR 10 PERCENT POS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS EARLIER THE CASE TO ALLOW FOR THE COLD POOL
AND HEATING CAUSED INSTABILITY CONVECTION. DO THINK THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED STORMS A LITTLE FARTHER S TODAY THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
POP AND WX GRIDS. OVERALL INHERITED GRIDS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST
MODEL RUNS SO REALLY NOT MANY CHANGES OF REAL SIGNIFICANCE. HIGHER
DEW POINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY. THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS TODAY AND TUE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL EASES IN WED AND TEMPS WILL WARM FURTHER
AS A RESULT. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE THE LEAST ON WED.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS RESOLVING JUST HOW WEST COAST
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. TIS
LIKELY THAT DRY LINE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER E NM. SO EXPECT
DIURNAL WEST TO EAST SLOSHING OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT. THUS THERE WILL BE SOME T STORM POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
EVEN STRONG/SEVERE...ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 00Z EURO IS
STILL NOT TOO BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND KEEPS STRONGER
W TO SW WINDS ALOFT.
43
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS...AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LOCALIZED VERY HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CIRCULATE GUSTY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY. SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TRAILING RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TO CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN EXPANDING
CIRCULATION ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN INTO HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND MOVE
THIS FEATURE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR TODAY...COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH COOLING TRENDS
LEVELING OFF...AND MOST SPOTS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY
NORMALS. THUNDER A POSSIBILITY MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD.
LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS IN MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS PCT WILL SET UP RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. GENERALLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FAIR
TO GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND EXTREME EAST.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODEST WARMING TREND WILL PUSH DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARD LATE MAY NORMALS. SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LIMITED TO THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE WIND
SPEEDS BACK...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST...WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
RUN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WEST AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO GOOD
RECOVERIES NORTH AND EAST...BEST NEAR THE COLORADO AND TEXAS LINES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WARMING CONTINUES UNDER THE
RIDGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. RIDGE WILL SQUASH THE CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE STATE
UNDER SOME FORM OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CHUSKAS NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES REMAINING VERY DRY...SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS PCT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VERY HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL BE REACHED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SPOTS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH IMPROVED
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS WORK SOME
EVENING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN TIER AS A MOIST GULF AIR MASS SNEAKS ACROSS THE
TEXAS BORDER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...CONTINUED POOR TO
FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WARMING THURSDAY LEVELING OFF
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY LINE CONVECTION KICKS UP EACH AFTERNOON
NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE EASED SOMEWHAT
OVER TH EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT REMAIN VERY DRY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE. VERY HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POOR TO FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES
OVER THE EAST UNDER MOIST GULF AIR MASS.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 201125 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
525 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT EXTENDING FROM COLORADO TO SOUTHERN
NEVADA WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS. SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER TX PANHANDLE COMBINED WITH WEAK
COLD FRONT PENETRATING NORTHEAST NM WILL PRODUCE USUAL AFTERNOON
ROUNDS OF GUSTY WINDS...WITH G25 KTS SHOWING UP FROM ROUGHLY 17Z
ONWARD TODAY THROUGH SUNSET AT 02Z. AFTERNOON VIRGA DEVELOPMENT
WILL PRODUCE SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 04Z THIS EVENING.
MOSTLY VFR CIGS AND VIZ WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO MVFR CIGS AND
VIZ IN VIRGA CURTAINS AND IN BLOWING DUST WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING FROM 04Z ONWARD THIS EVENING.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...342 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013...
WHAT IS LEFT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NE NM IS NOT LIKELY TO
MOVE TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO N NM.
THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE COMBO...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
ALOFT YIELDING FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL ALL HELP TO
GENERATE A CROP OF ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD ACTUALLY
PRODUCE ENOUGH PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
STILL FAIRLY LOW AND AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN 1 OR 2
TENTHS AND MOST CASES LESS. DID EXTEND LOW NEAR 10 PERCENT POS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS EARLIER THE CASE TO ALLOW FOR THE COLD POOL
AND HEATING CAUSED INSTABILITY CONVECTION. DO THINK THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED STORMS A LITTLE FARTHER S TODAY THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
POP AND WX GRIDS. OVERALL INHERITED GRIDS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST
MODEL RUNS SO REALLY NOT MANY CHANGES OF REAL SIGNIFICANCE. HIGHER
DEW POINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY. THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS TODAY AND TUE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL EASES IN WED AND TEMPS WILL WARM FURTHER
AS A RESULT. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE THE LEAST ON WED.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS RESOLVING JUST HOW WEST COAST
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. TIS
LIKELY THAT DRY LINE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER E NM. SO EXPECT
DIURNAL WEST TO EAST SLOSHING OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT. THUS THERE WILL BE SOME T STORM POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
EVEN STRONG/SEVERE...ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 00Z EURO IS
STILL NOT TOO BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND KEEPS STRONGER
W TO SW WINDS ALOFT.
43
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS...AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LOCALIZED VERY HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CIRCULATE GUSTY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY. SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TRAILING RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TO CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN EXPANDING
CIRCULATION ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN INTO HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND MOVE
THIS FEATURE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR TODAY...COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH COOLING TRENDS
LEVELING OFF...AND MOST SPOTS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY
NORMALS. THUNDER A POSSIBILITY MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD.
LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS IN MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS PCT WILL SET UP RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. GENERALLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FAIR
TO GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND EXTREME EAST.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODEST WARMING TREND WILL PUSH DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARD LATE MAY NORMALS. SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LIMITED TO THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE WIND
SPEEDS BACK...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST...WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
RUN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WEST AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO GOOD
RECOVERIES NORTH AND EAST...BEST NEAR THE COLORADO AND TEXAS LINES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WARMING CONTINUES UNDER THE
RIDGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. RIDGE WILL SQUASH THE CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE STATE
UNDER SOME FORM OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CHUSKAS NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES REMAINING VERY DRY...SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS PCT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VERY HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL BE REACHED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SPOTS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH IMPROVED
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS WORK SOME
EVENING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN TIER AS A MOIST GULF AIR MASS SNEAKS ACROSS THE
TEXAS BORDER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...CONTINUED POOR TO
FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WARMING THURSDAY LEVELING OFF
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY LINE CONVECTION KICKS UP EACH AFTERNOON
NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE EASED SOMEWHAT
OVER TH EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT REMAIN VERY DRY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE. VERY HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POOR TO FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES
OVER THE EAST UNDER MOIST GULF AIR MASS.
SHY
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 200942
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
342 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WHAT IS LEFT OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NE NM IS NOT LIKELY TO
MOVE TOO MUCH DURING THE DAY AS NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO N NM.
THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE COMBO...AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOL
ALOFT YIELDING FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL ALL HELP TO
GENERATE A CROP OF ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WITH HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. MOST OF THESE SHOULD ACTUALLY
PRODUCE ENOUGH PCPN TO REACH THE GROUND...BUT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
STILL FAIRLY LOW AND AMTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NO MORE THAN 1 OR 2
TENTHS AND MOST CASES LESS. DID EXTEND LOW NEAR 10 PERCENT POS
FARTHER SOUTH THAN WAS EARLIER THE CASE TO ALLOW FOR THE COLD POOL
AND HEATING CAUSED INSTABILITY CONVECTION. DO THINK THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED STORMS A LITTLE FARTHER S TODAY THAN INDICATED BY EARLIER
POP AND WX GRIDS. OVERALL INHERITED GRIDS WELL SUPPORTED BY LATEST
MODEL RUNS SO REALLY NOT MANY CHANGES OF REAL SIGNIFICANCE. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT
LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY. THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES CONTINUE FOR N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS TODAY AND TUE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL EASES IN WED AND TEMPS WILL WARM FURTHER
AS A RESULT. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE THE LEAST ON WED.
MODELS STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS RESOLVING JUST HOW WEST COAST
UPPER LOW AND TROUGH EVOLVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. TIS
LIKELY THAT DRYLINE WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP OVER E NM. SO EXPECT
DIURNAL WEST TO EAST SLOSHING OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST MOISTURE
WILL MAKE IT. THUS THERE WILL BE SOME T STORM POTENTIAL...PERHAPS
EVEN STRONG/SEVERE...ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THAT COULD BE IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 00Z EURO IS
STILL NOT TOO BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN AND KEEPS STRONGER
W TO SW WINDS ALOFT.
43
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS...AND THE EASTERN PLAINS.
LOCALIZED VERY HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. CLOSED LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH
BROAD RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CIRCULATE GUSTY WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TODAY. SHORTWAVE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION WILL SWEEP ACROSS NEW MEXICO TONIGHT...AS PARENT CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TRAILING RIDGE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TO CENTRAL MONTANA WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS CLOSED LOW DEEPENS AND EXPANDS IN COVERAGE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY
MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS ALOFT TO BACK TO SOUTHWEST IN EXPANDING
CIRCULATION ABOUT PACIFIC NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
HOLD STEADY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN INTO HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND MOVE
THIS FEATURE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND
INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR TODAY...COOLER AIR IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO WITH COOLING TRENDS
LEVELING OFF...AND MOST SPOTS RUNNING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE MAY
NORMALS. THUNDER A POSSIBILITY MAINLY FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD.
LITTLE CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS IN MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS PCT WILL SET UP RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AND OUT OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. GENERALLY POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FAIR
TO GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND EXTREME EAST.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO
CENTRAL MONTANA WILL KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW CIRCULATING INTO NEW
MEXICO. MODEST WARMING TREND WILL PUSH DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
BACK TOWARD LATE MAY NORMALS. SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LIMITED TO THE SUMMITS AND SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE WIND
SPEEDS BACK...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST...WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL
RUN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH
POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WEST AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO GOOD
RECOVERIES NORTH AND EAST...BEST NEAR THE COLORADO AND TEXAS LINES.
FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO AS SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WARMING CONTINUES UNDER THE
RIDGE WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE LATE MAY
NORMALS. RIDGE WILL SQUASH THE CONVECTION WITH MOST OF THE STATE
UNDER SOME FORM OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CHUSKAS NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES REMAINING VERY DRY...SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS PCT WILL
BE WIDESPREAD. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...VERY HIGH HAINES
INDICES WILL BE REACHED OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SPOTS INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES WITH IMPROVED
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HELPS WORK SOME
EVENING MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EASTERN TIER AS A MOIST GULF AIR MASS SNEAKS ACROSS THE
TEXAS BORDER. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE...CONTINUED POOR TO
FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WARMING THURSDAY LEVELING OFF
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DRY LINE CONVECTION KICKS UP EACH AFTERNOON
NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BE EASED SOMEWHAT
OVER TH EAST AND NORTHEAST...BUT REMAIN VERY DRY OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE. VERY HIGH HAINES INDICES WILL BE DEVELOPING LATE EACH
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. POOR TO FAIR
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...MUCH BETTER RECOVERIES
OVER THE EAST UNDER MOIST GULF AIR MASS.
SHY
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN BLOWING DUST. LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WINDS WILL TREND
DOWN MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 70 41 76 45 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 64 32 72 36 / 20 10 5 0
CUBA............................ 67 35 72 39 / 10 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 68 32 75 36 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 63 31 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 70 36 76 38 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 69 38 75 40 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 79 41 81 42 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 60 31 64 34 / 30 20 10 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 63 42 70 46 / 10 5 5 0
PECOS........................... 61 41 67 45 / 5 0 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 63 35 68 41 / 20 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 54 31 59 35 / 30 20 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 57 29 63 30 / 20 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 65 33 70 35 / 10 5 5 5
MORA............................ 61 36 67 40 / 10 5 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 70 39 76 43 / 5 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 66 42 71 45 / 5 0 5 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 69 42 74 44 / 5 0 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 72 49 77 51 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 74 51 79 54 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 74 47 80 49 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 74 48 80 50 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 75 46 81 48 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 75 48 81 51 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 83 53 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 70 43 74 48 / 5 0 5 0
TIJERAS......................... 71 44 75 48 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 67 40 74 42 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 68 41 72 45 / 0 0 5 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 70 45 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 77 48 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 70 46 70 51 / 0 0 5 0
CAPULIN......................... 63 38 68 43 / 30 20 10 5
RATON........................... 68 39 71 41 / 20 10 10 0
SPRINGER........................ 68 40 73 42 / 10 10 10 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 67 39 71 42 / 5 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 72 46 74 46 / 20 20 10 5
ROY............................. 70 44 72 44 / 10 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 79 48 77 50 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 77 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 82 49 80 51 / 0 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 83 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 84 51 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 84 50 82 53 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 91 54 86 54 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 82 51 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 77 50 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
43
000
FXUS65 KABQ 200533 AAC
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED VIRGA SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH AND SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS
IN BLOWING DUST. LOOK FOR MORE OF THE SAME BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH A MODERATE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WINDS WILL TREND
DOWN MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...714 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY
WORDING. NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.
33
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
VIRGA SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CERTAINLY GOT GOING A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXTENDED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. APPEARS NOW THAT THE SHOWERS ARE WANING SOUTH OF I-40 AND
THE DRY AIR IS TAKING OVER. PUT SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE WX
GRIDS THROUGH 9 PM...THOUGH WHATS LEFT MAY DIMINISH BEFORE THEN.
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -4. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WORKED INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
KTCC FOR A TIME...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY WASHED OUT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN ITS WAKE HOWEVER...THOUGH THEY ARE
NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION EITHER.
WINDS ARE STILL COMING UP...SO WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR
NOW. SO FAR...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SUBADVISORY...BUT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING IS STILL AN HOUR OR TWO AWAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA. IT SHOULD HANG UP
IN THAT AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WESTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY/FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS MONDAY EVENING ONCE THE
WESTERLIES DIMINISH A BIT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY
THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY.
THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN/NE AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM
ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHAT THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW WILL DO FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WHAT SEEMS
CERTAIN IS THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT LESS CERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT. SO...THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS...PERHAPS STRONG/SEVERE...
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE PLAINS THAT COULD BE
IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 12Z EURO IS BACK TO BEING LESS
BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND KEEPS STRONGER WEST/SW WINDS
ALOFT.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNINGS. CONSIDERED CANCELING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS AS BACK DOOR FRONT CAME INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING.
THIS HAS HELD DOWN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. BUT THE FRONT HAS TURNED
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
ZONES SHOULD RECEIVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT SOME GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
AREAS DOWN TO INTERSTATE 40. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WETTING RAINS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY IS PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EASE DOWN AGAIN...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A
MORE RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. MIN RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE
WARNING AREA...MOSTLY TEENS THROUGH THE 20S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE. BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE.
DRY AND WARMER WITH LESS WIND ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE WARMUP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY
BUT WILL LOWER TO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
EXCELLENT VENT RATES BOTH DAYS.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BIG OL STORM WILL SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING TO THE EAST...BRINGING EITHER
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...OR WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. EITHER
WAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LINE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. SO...WE COULD END UP
SEEING A SCENARIO WHERE WE GET STORMS IN THE FAR EAST AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST OR AT LEAST NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE MIN
RH VALUES ARE PLENTY LOW ENOUGH IN THE WEST BUT WIND IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR.
ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF SUPER HAINES OVER THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH HAINES VALUES FOR SURE. MOSTLY EXCELLENT VENT
RATES TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CHJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MON MORNING WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS
AT KLVS AND KTCC. SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT. RATHER ROBUST
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EVEN AROUND SAF AND ABQ. WILL CARRY A VCSH IN
GUP...ABQ...SAF AND LVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION IN TAF FORECASTS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FMN. MTN OBSCURATIONS NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FORECAST.
WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID EVENING LEAVING NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 200114 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
714 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
VERY MINOR UPDATE TO ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY
WORDING. NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...535 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR VSBYS WITH PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-40KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDOWN
AS WELL...PERHAPS HIGHER NEAR VIRGA SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
MODERATE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN MONDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY.
11
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
VIRGA SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CERTAINLY GOT GOING A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXTENDED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. APPEARS NOW THAT THE SHOWERS ARE WANING SOUTH OF I-40 AND
THE DRY AIR IS TAKING OVER. PUT SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE WX
GRIDS THROUGH 9 PM...THOUGH WHATS LEFT MAY DIMINISH BEFORE THEN.
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -4. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WORKED INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
KTCC FOR A TIME...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY WASHED OUT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN ITS WAKE HOWEVER...THOUGH THEY ARE
NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION EITHER.
WINDS ARE STILL COMING UP...SO WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR
NOW. SO FAR...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SUBADVISORY...BUT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING IS STILL AN HOUR OR TWO AWAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA. IT SHOULD HANG UP
IN THAT AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WESTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY/FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS MONDAY EVENING ONCE THE
WESTERLIES DIMINISH A BIT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY
THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY.
THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN/NE AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM
ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHAT THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW WILL DO FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WHAT SEEMS
CERTAIN IS THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT LESS CERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT. SO...THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS...PERHAPS STRONG/SEVERE...
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE PLAINS THAT COULD BE
IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 12Z EURO IS BACK TO BEING LESS
BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND KEEPS STRONGER WEST/SW WINDS
ALOFT.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNINGS. CONSIDERED CANCELING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS AS BACK DOOR FRONT CAME INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING.
THIS HAS HELD DOWN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. BUT THE FRONT HAS TURNED
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
ZONES SHOULD RECEIVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT SOME GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
AREAS DOWN TO INTERSTATE 40. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WETTING RAINS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY IS PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EASE DOWN AGAIN...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A
MORE RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. MIN RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE
WARNING AREA...MOSTLY TEENS THROUGH THE 20S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE. BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE.
DRY AND WARMER WITH LESS WIND ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE WARMUP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY
BUT WILL LOWER TO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
EXCELLENT VENT RATES BOTH DAYS.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BIG OL STORM WILL SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING TO THE EAST...BRINGING EITHER
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...OR WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. EITHER
WAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LINE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. SO...WE COULD END UP
SEEING A SCENARIO WHERE WE GET STORMS IN THE FAR EAST AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST OR AT LEAST NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE MIN
RH VALUES ARE PLENTY LOW ENOUGH IN THE WEST BUT WIND IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR.
ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF SUPER HAINES OVER THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH HAINES VALUES FOR SURE. MOSTLY EXCELLENT VENT
RATES TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CHJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MON MORNING WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS
AT KLVS AND KTCC. SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT. RATHER ROBUST
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EVEN AROUND SAF AND ABQ. WILL CARRY A VCSH IN
GUP...ABQ...SAF AND LVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION IN TAF FORECASTS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FMN. MTN OBSCURATIONS NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FORECAST.
WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID EVENING LEAVING NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 192335 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR VSBYS WITH PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-40KTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDOWN
AS WELL...PERHAPS HIGHER NEAR VIRGA SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
MODERATE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. WINDS WILL TREND DOWN MONDAY
COMPARED TO TODAY.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
VIRGA SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CERTAINLY GOT GOING A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXTENDED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. APPEARS NOW THAT THE SHOWERS ARE WANING SOUTH OF I-40 AND
THE DRY AIR IS TAKING OVER. PUT SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE WX
GRIDS THROUGH 9 PM...THOUGH WHATS LEFT MAY DIMINISH BEFORE THEN.
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -4. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WORKED INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
KTCC FOR A TIME...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY WASHED OUT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN ITS WAKE HOWEVER...THOUGH THEY ARE
NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION EITHER.
WINDS ARE STILL COMING UP...SO WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR
NOW. SO FAR...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SUBADVISORY...BUT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING IS STILL AN HOUR OR TWO AWAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA. IT SHOULD HANG UP
IN THAT AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WESTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY/FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS MONDAY EVENING ONCE THE
WESTERLIES DIMINISH A BIT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY
THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY.
THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN/NE AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM
ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHAT THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW WILL DO FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WHAT SEEMS
CERTAIN IS THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT LESS CERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT. SO...THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS...PERHAPS STRONG/SEVERE...
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE PLAINS THAT COULD BE
IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 12Z EURO IS BACK TO BEING LESS
BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND KEEPS STRONGER WEST/SW WINDS
ALOFT.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNINGS. CONSIDERED CANCELING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS AS BACK DOOR FRONT CAME INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING.
THIS HAS HELD DOWN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. BUT THE FRONT HAS TURNED
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
ZONES SHOULD RECEIVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT SOME GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
AREAS DOWN TO INTERSTATE 40. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WETTING RAINS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY IS PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EASE DOWN AGAIN...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A
MORE RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. MIN RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE
WARNING AREA...MOSTLY TEENS THROUGH THE 20S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE. BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE.
DRY AND WARMER WITH LESS WIND ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE WARMUP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY
BUT WILL LOWER TO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
EXCELLENT VENT RATES BOTH DAYS.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BIG OL STORM WILL SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING TO THE EAST...BRINGING EITHER
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...OR WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. EITHER
WAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LINE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. SO...WE COULD END UP
SEEING A SCENARIO WHERE WE GET STORMS IN THE FAR EAST AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST OR AT LEAST NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE MIN
RH VALUES ARE PLENTY LOW ENOUGH IN THE WEST BUT WIND IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR.
ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF SUPER HAINES OVER THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH HAINES VALUES FOR SURE. MOSTLY EXCELLENT VENT
RATES TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CHJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MON MORNING WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS
AT KLVS AND KTCC. SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT. RATHER ROBUST
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EVEN AROUND SAF AND ABQ. WILL CARRY A VCSH IN
GUP...ABQ...SAF AND LVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION IN TAF FORECASTS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FMN. MTN OBSCURATIONS NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FORECAST.
WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID EVENING LEAVING NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-529-532>535.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 192059
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 PM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
VIRGA SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS CERTAINLY GOT GOING A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND EXTENDED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT. APPEARS NOW THAT THE SHOWERS ARE WANING SOUTH OF I-40 AND
THE DRY AIR IS TAKING OVER. PUT SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE WX
GRIDS THROUGH 9 PM...THOUGH WHATS LEFT MAY DIMINISH BEFORE THEN.
QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH LAPS
ANALYSIS INDICATED LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -2 AND -4. A WEAK BOUNDARY
WORKED INTO NORTHEAST NM THIS MORNING...EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS
KTCC FOR A TIME...BUT THIS BOUNDARY HAS LARGELY WASHED OUT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE FORMED IN ITS WAKE HOWEVER...THOUGH THEY ARE
NOT PRODUCING MUCH PRECIPITATION EITHER.
WINDS ARE STILL COMING UP...SO WILL LEAVE WIND ADVISORY INTACT FOR
NOW. SO FAR...WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SUBADVISORY...BUT PEAK
HEATING/MIXING IS STILL AN HOUR OR TWO AWAY.
OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AND THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE AREA. IT SHOULD HANG UP
IN THAT AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS WESTERLY WINDS PICK
BACK UP WITH THE SECONDARY TROUGH PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
BOUNDARY/FRONT SHOULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS MONDAY EVENING ONCE THE
WESTERLIES DIMINISH A BIT. HIGHER DEWPOINTS SHOULD GET USHERED IN BY
THE BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT IT LOOKS TO LARGELY MIX OUT ON TUESDAY.
THUS...MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHERN/NE AREAS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING STILL ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY...AND TEMPS WILL WARM
ACCORDINGLY. PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE LEAST ON WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING WHAT THE WEST COAST
UPPER LOW WILL DO FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. WHAT SEEMS
CERTAIN IS THE DIURNAL SLOSHING OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT LESS CERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE WILL MAKE
IT. SO...THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS...PERHAPS STRONG/SEVERE...
ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH OF THE PLAINS THAT COULD BE
IMPACTED REMAINS UP FOR DEBATE. 12Z EURO IS BACK TO BEING LESS
BULLISH ON THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND KEEPS STRONGER WEST/SW WINDS
ALOFT.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ENOUGH FOR A CONTINUATION OF CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNINGS. CONSIDERED CANCELING FOR THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS AS BACK DOOR FRONT CAME INTO THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING.
THIS HAS HELD DOWN WINDS AND TEMPERATURES. BUT THE FRONT HAS TURNED
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
ZONES SHOULD RECEIVE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT SOME GUSTY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
AREAS DOWN TO INTERSTATE 40. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH WETTING RAINS FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. A FEW LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. MAIN FOCUS FOR MONDAY IS PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
EASE DOWN AGAIN...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A
MORE RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING. MIN RH VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE
WARNING AREA...MOSTLY TEENS THROUGH THE 20S ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE. BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS AGAIN MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS WAKE.
DRY AND WARMER WITH LESS WIND ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE WARMUP WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY OVER
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY
BUT WILL LOWER TO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY. CONTINUED
EXCELLENT VENT RATES BOTH DAYS.
INTERESTING FORECAST FOR LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BIG OL STORM WILL SET UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE STATE. IT WILL BE A BATTLE BETWEEN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING TO THE EAST...BRINGING EITHER
ENOUGH WIND AND DRY AIR TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO FOR POTENTIAL CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...OR WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO PREVENT ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. EITHER
WAY...THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LINE STORMS THURSDAY
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER. SO...WE COULD END UP
SEEING A SCENARIO WHERE WE GET STORMS IN THE FAR EAST AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IN THE WEST OR AT LEAST NORTHWEST. RIGHT NOW THE MIN
RH VALUES ARE PLENTY LOW ENOUGH IN THE WEST BUT WIND IS THE LIMITING
FACTOR.
ALSO SEEING SIGNS OF SUPER HAINES OVER THE WEST THURSDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH HAINES VALUES FOR SURE. MOSTLY EXCELLENT VENT
RATES TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MON MORNING WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS
AT KLVS AND KTCC. SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT. RATHER ROBUST
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EVEN AROUND SAF AND ABQ. WILL CARRY A VCSH IN
GUP...ABQ...SAF AND LVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION IN TAF FORECASTS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FMN. MTN OBSCURATIONS NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FORECAST.
WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID EVENING LEAVING NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 44 71 43 76 / 5 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 31 66 33 73 / 10 20 10 5
CUBA............................ 36 68 36 74 / 5 10 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 40 69 36 75 / 5 5 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 36 65 33 70 / 5 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 40 71 40 76 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 42 70 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 43 80 42 82 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 31 61 31 65 / 10 30 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 43 64 43 70 / 5 10 5 5
PECOS........................... 44 62 41 68 / 0 5 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 35 64 35 69 / 10 20 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 32 55 32 58 / 20 30 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 30 59 29 62 / 10 20 10 10
TAOS............................ 35 66 34 71 / 5 10 5 5
MORA............................ 40 63 37 67 / 0 10 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 43 71 42 77 / 0 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 45 66 43 70 / 5 5 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 44 71 43 75 / 5 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 53 73 51 77 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 52 75 52 79 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 52 76 50 81 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 50 75 49 80 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 76 49 81 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 49 76 48 82 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 55 85 53 89 / 5 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 71 44 76 / 5 0 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 46 72 45 76 / 10 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 68 44 73 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 44 70 41 72 / 5 0 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 48 72 46 75 / 5 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 78 48 79 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 48 71 47 71 / 0 0 0 5
CAPULIN......................... 42 65 39 68 / 20 30 20 10
RATON........................... 39 69 40 73 / 10 20 10 10
SPRINGER........................ 41 70 40 74 / 5 10 10 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 69 39 72 / 0 0 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 48 74 47 75 / 10 20 20 10
ROY............................. 48 71 44 74 / 5 10 10 5
CONCHAS......................... 52 80 49 82 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 53 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 56 84 50 83 / 0 0 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 53 83 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 54 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 56 82 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 59 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 54 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 78 50 78 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-529-532>535.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 191750
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MON MORNING WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS
AT KLVS AND KTCC. SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 KT. RATHER ROBUST
SHOWERS FORMING EARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS MORNING AND EVEN AROUND SAF AND ABQ. WILL CARRY A VCSH IN
GUP...ABQ...SAF AND LVS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE NO CONVECTION IN TAF FORECASTS BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
FMN. MTN OBSCURATIONS NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES FORECAST.
WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID EVENING LEAVING NO
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...947 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
WINDS FROM KCQC TO KCVN ARE ALREADY GUSTING PRETTY GOOD THIS
MORNING...AND BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EASTERN AREAS WILL MIX
UP TO AROUND 550 MB AGAIN TODAY WHERE THERE RESIDES ALMOST 50KT
FLOW. SO BASED ON THE STRONG MIXING AND A HEALTHY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM.
BASED ON THESE STRONGER WINDS...HAVE ALSO ADDED BLDU TO THE GRIDS.
NPW ALREADY OUT...ZFP UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 34
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SUITE SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL LOCALES
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN MTS REPORTING TRACE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. EVEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED. THE 06Z
NAM SUGGESTS THE UPPER JET CORE AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS THRU THE DAY IN THIS AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE UP TO AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY
FOR AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI BUT
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE IS
LIMITED.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND DELIVER
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MONDAY. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD SINCE CHANCE POPS
STILL COVERED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
NEARBY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CLOUD COVER. AGAIN A NEAR REPEAT FOR THE EAST WITH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS LIKELY. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL...HOWEVER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZES FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS...CHAMA...DULCE...EL MORRO...AND PERHAPS EVEN GALLUP.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EAST TUESDAY
BRINGING BETTER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS...FINALLY ENDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CREST OVER THE STATE WITH OVERALL VERY NICE
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY AND BE A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER NUISANCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STATEWIDE. THE DRYLINE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS JUST
ABOUT TOAST NOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SOME STORMS TO FIRE UP WOULD BE FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN TRENDS
THAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO TX. BACK TO THE FIRE DANGER...IT
APPEARS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME
A PROBLEM FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA...ENOUGH FOR CONTINUATION OF CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR
E SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON EAST AND...A LITTLE MORE MARGINALLY
SO...THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS TODAY NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN ON SAT...A LITTLE HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF
OF NM...BUT AFTN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER EAST AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTH. RH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SAT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT. EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN WARNED AREA. STILL A FEW TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON
TO LAS VEGAS TO ZUNI PUEBLO. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME TODAY BUT
STILL EXCELLENT VENT RATES. OVER BULK OF AREA EXPECT FAIR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
FOR THIS CURRENT EVENT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...COVERING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASE DOWN ONE
MORE DAY...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE
RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A MORE
RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SAT. PREVIOUS FIRE WX WATCH FOR FIRE
WX ZONES 106...107 AND 108 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. MIN RH
VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE WARNING AREA...MID TEENS THROUGH
20S ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...MAINLY TO EAST
OF NW PLATEAU. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS
WAKE.
DRY SCENARIO ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUE AND WED. MID TO LATE
WEEK...MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY SUPPORTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH.
WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CRITICAL LVL WINDS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS PERIOD. MAY BE A
DRY LINE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TO ITS EAST WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL RISK
OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL BE OF THE WET
VARIETY. 43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-529-532>535.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
40
000
FXUS65 KABQ 191547 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
947 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
WINDS FROM KCQC TO KCVN ARE ALREADY GUSTING PRETTY GOOD THIS
MORNING...AND BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EASTERN AREAS WILL MIX
UP TO AROUND 550 MB AGAIN TODAY WHERE THERE RESIDES ALMOST 50KT
FLOW. SO BASED ON THE STRONG MIXING AND A HEALTHY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM.
BASED ON THESE STRONGER WINDS...HAVE ALSO ADDED BLDU TO THE GRIDS.
NPW ALREADY OUT...ZFP UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
34
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...605 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH EARLY MON WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL...GENERALLY
WESTERLY...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 33 AND 40KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC. SOME
SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY LOWER
TERRAIN OF THE EAST. SPOTTY HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO NEARLY 50 KT. LATTER NOT
GENERALLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS CHANCES LOWER TODAY AT TAF SITES
THAN SAT AFTN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES FORECAST. WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID
EVE LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
43
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SUITE SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL LOCALES
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN MTS REPORTING TRACE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. EVEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED. THE 06Z
NAM SUGGESTS THE UPPER JET CORE AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS THRU THE DAY IN THIS AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE UP TO AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY
FOR AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI BUT
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE IS
LIMITED.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND DELIVER
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MONDAY. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD SINCE CHANCE POPS
STILL COVERED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
NEARBY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CLOUD COVER. AGAIN A NEAR REPEAT FOR THE EAST WITH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS LIKELY. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL...HOWEVER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZES FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS...CHAMA...DULCE...EL MORRO...AND PERHAPS EVEN GALLUP.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EAST TUESDAY
BRINGING BETTER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS...FINALLY ENDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CREST OVER THE STATE WITH OVERALL VERY NICE
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY AND BE A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER NUISANCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STATEWIDE. THE DRYLINE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS JUST
ABOUT TOAST NOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SOME STORMS TO FIRE UP WOULD BE FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN TRENDS
THAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO TX. BACK TO THE FIRE DANGER...IT
APPEARS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME
A PROBLEM FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA...ENOUGH FOR CONTINUATION OF CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR
E SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON EAST AND...A LITTLE MORE MARGINALLY
SO...THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS TODAY NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN ON SAT...A LITTLE HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF
OF NM...BUT AFTN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER EAST AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTH. RH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SAT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT. EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN WARNED AREA. STILL A FEW TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON
TO LAS VEGAS TO ZUNI PUEBLO. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME TODAY BUT
STILL EXCELLENT VENT RATES. OVER BULK OF AREA EXPECT FAIR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
FOR THIS CURRENT EVENT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...COVERING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASE DOWN ONE
MORE DAY...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE
RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A MORE
RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SAT. PREVIOUS FIRE WX WATCH FOR FIRE
WX ZONES 106...107 AND 108 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. MIN RH
VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE WARNING AREA...MID TEENS THROUGH
20S ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...MAINLY TO EAST
OF NW PLATEAU. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS
WAKE.
DRY SCENARIO ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUE AND WED. MID TO LATE
WEEK...MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY SUPPORTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH.
WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CRITICAL LVL WINDS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS PERIOD. MAY BE A
DRY LINE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TO ITS EAST WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL RISK
OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL BE OF THE WET
VARIETY. 43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-529-532>535.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 191205
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH EARLY MON WITH GUSTY WINDS
BEING THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER ISSUE. LOW LEVEL...GENERALLY
WESTERLY...FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTN WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 33 AND 40KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC. SOME
SPOTTY INSTANCES OF BLDU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY LOWER
TERRAIN OF THE EAST. SPOTTY HIGH BASED VIRGA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS NORTH HALF OF FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO NEARLY 50 KT. LATTER NOT
GENERALLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS CHANCES LOWER TODAY AT TAF SITES
THAN SAT AFTN. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH
CLOUD BASES FORECAST. WINDS AND CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE EARLY TO MID
EVE LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS MOST OF TONIGHT.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013...
CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE SUITE SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL LOCALES
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN MTS REPORTING TRACE PRECIP
AMOUNTS. EVEN A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN NOTED. THE 06Z
NAM SUGGESTS THE UPPER JET CORE AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER
WILL KICK OFF SHOWERS THRU THE DAY IN THIS AREA...SO HAVE RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO COVER LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BE UP TO AROUND 5F BELOW NORMAL WITH
QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED TODAY FOR
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS WHERE CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY TODAY
FOR AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 40 FROM CLINES CORNERS TO TUCUMCARI BUT
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL COVERAGE IS
LIMITED.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY VORT AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND DELIVER
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD ADVECTION AND WEAK MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
MONDAY. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD SINCE CHANCE POPS
STILL COVERED FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
NEARBY AREAS. MAX TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10F BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WITH MORE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
CLOUD COVER. AGAIN A NEAR REPEAT FOR THE EAST WITH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS LIKELY. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
MIN TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL...HOWEVER IT WILL ACTUALLY BE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT LIGHT FREEZES FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS...CHAMA...DULCE...EL MORRO...AND PERHAPS EVEN GALLUP.
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE EAST TUESDAY
BRINGING BETTER HUMIDITIES AND COOLER TEMPS...FINALLY ENDING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CREST OVER THE STATE WITH OVERALL VERY NICE
CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES.
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN INFLUENCING THE WEATHER
PATTERN BY WEDNESDAY AND BE A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER NUISANCE
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD STATEWIDE. THE DRYLINE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IS JUST
ABOUT TOAST NOW IN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE BEST SHOT
FOR SOME STORMS TO FIRE UP WOULD BE FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN TRENDS
THAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT INTO TX. BACK TO THE FIRE DANGER...IT
APPEARS BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BECOME
A PROBLEM FROM ABOUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
SW FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. TEMPS WILL ALSO TREND ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR FOR MANY AREAS OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS THROUGH MONDAY THEN WINDS EASING...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RH AGAIN TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE
FCST AREA...ENOUGH FOR CONTINUATION OF CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR
E SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON EAST AND...A LITTLE MORE MARGINALLY
SO...THE MIDDLE TO LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS TODAY NOT TOO MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN ON SAT...A LITTLE HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF THE EAST HALF
OF NM...BUT AFTN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER EAST AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER NORTH. RH VALUES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SAT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT. EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN WARNED AREA. STILL A FEW TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON
TO LAS VEGAS TO ZUNI PUEBLO. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME TODAY BUT
STILL EXCELLENT VENT RATES. OVER BULK OF AREA EXPECT FAIR RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT.
FOR THIS CURRENT EVENT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON WILL BE THE LAST
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY...COVERING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASE DOWN ONE
MORE DAY...BUT ONLY A LITTLE. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE
RISK OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS COVERS A MORE
RESTRICTED AREA THAN TODAY OR SAT. PREVIOUS FIRE WX WATCH FOR FIRE
WX ZONES 106...107 AND 108 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING. MIN RH
VALUES FROM 8 TO 15 PERCENT IN THE WARNING AREA...MID TEENS THROUGH
20S ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS...
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...MAINLY TO EAST
OF NW PLATEAU. EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES WILL AGAIN BE THE RULE.
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN ITS
WAKE.
DRY SCENARIO ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF FCST AREA TUE AND WED. MID TO LATE
WEEK...MODELS ARE STILL GENERALLY SUPPORTING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY SLOWLY SOUTH.
WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT CONDITIONS NOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL CRITICAL LVL WINDS AT THIS TIME FOR THIS PERIOD. MAY BE A
DRY LINE SETTING UP SHOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TO ITS EAST WILL BE AN OCCASIONAL RISK
OF AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL BE OF THE WET
VARIETY. 43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
| 
