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000
FXUS65 KABQ 161743 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND LOWER AS A RESULT.
STARTING WITH GUP/FMN AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD. THEN THINNING
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY FAVORING ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NE THIRD. LVS WILL BE
IMPACTED ALTHOUGH CARRYING MVFR CIGS IN LATEST FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THAT SITE COULD OBSERVE EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. TCC WILL
FOLLOW SUIT. TOUGHER CALL FOR ROW/SAF SO LEFT THOSE SITES OUT. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE WAVE TODAY BUT STRONGEST WIND FLOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KT FOR 2 TO 3 HRS AND A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT. TCC
WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 161141 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUES IN PLACE OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM THIS
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL APPROACH NORTH
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY ABOUT MIDDAY AT
KGUP...KLVS AND KTCC. SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A KCAO TO
KLVS TO KGNT LINE BY 16/21Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WEST OF
CENTRAL MTS AND NELY IN NE PLAINS. AFTER 17/03Z TONIGHT...HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS EAST TO RATON PASS
AND NE HIGHLANDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN SCT -SHRASN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$

SHY











000
FXUS65 KABQ 160907
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROF WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU 16/12Z. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH INTO NE NM AFT 16/18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ALG RATON RIDGE BECOMING
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT -SHRASN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  67  34  68  40 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  62  25  61  29 /   5  10   0   0
CUBA............................  64  29  62  32 /   5  10   0   0
GALLUP..........................  68  30  69  35 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  63  27  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  67  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  75  33  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  57  25  55  27 /  10  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  64  37  62  41 /   5  10   0   0
PECOS...........................  62  33  60  36 /   5  10   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  61  26  56  29 /  10  40   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  47  24  47  31 /  20  60  20   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  55  22  52  27 /  10  50  10   0
TAOS............................  63  27  60  30 /   5  30   5   0
MORA............................  62  29  57  34 /   5  30  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  69  34  67  37 /   5  10   0   0
SANTA FE........................  64  36  62  39 /   0  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  34  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  44  68  46 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  73  44  70  45 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  75  42  72  43 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  42  71  44 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  77  39  73  40 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  74  42  70  44 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  69  38  64  41 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  69  40  66  42 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  31  65  33 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  32  60  35 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  70  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  40  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  66  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  58  28  51  32 /  10  60  30   5
RATON...........................  63  31  55  31 /  10  60  20   5
SPRINGER........................  66  32  58  33 /  10  50  20   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  30  58  35 /   0  20  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  64  33  56  37 /   5  50  20   5
ROY.............................  67  32  55  35 /   5  30  20   5
CONCHAS.........................  74  39  63  41 /   5  20  10   0
SANTA ROSA......................  76  39  64  40 /   0  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  39  63  39 /   0  10  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  77  40  62  37 /   0  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  78  41  64  39 /   0  10   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  42  66  41 /   0  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  83  47  71  44 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  77  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  72  41  64  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 160526
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1126 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROF WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU 16/12Z. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH INTO NE NM AFT 16/18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ALG RATON RIDGE BECOMING
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT -SHRASN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND OVERNIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARMER SYSTEM WILL PASS MORE DIRECTLY
OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY THEN PERSIST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STRONG MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW TO 15 DEGREES OVER
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...SINCE THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED
YESTERDAY HAS MODIFIED...A LEE TROUGH IS INDUCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS OUR FIRST
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHEAST AREAS FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE
SANGRES. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000
FEET. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON
PASS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN REBOUND AND
VARY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMER SYSTEM
CROSSING FROM THE WEST. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...AND A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY CREATE A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...CAPE REMAINS LIMITED BUT
MODEL LIFTED INDICES IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THE EAST.

MODELS ARE PAINTING A MUDDLED PICTURE AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
EXITS EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT. THEY
DO SEEM TO AGREE ON SOME LINGERING SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS
WET AS THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.  A COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AND
MODELS WITH LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS MEETING RH AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHIFTS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO AROUND THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT THE WESTERLY
WIND STRENGTH AND DURATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR WEST THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
AID IN GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE MODELS FORECAST AN SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW MOVES GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH THIS SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE OUR CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CHANCES FOR DRY LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALSO INCREASING
WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 152320
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROF WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU 16/12Z. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH INTO NE NM AFT 16/18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ALG RATON RIDGE BECOMING
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT -SHRASN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND OVERNIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARMER SYSTEM WILL PASS MORE DIRECTLY
OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY THEN PERSIST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STRONG MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW TO 15 DEGREES OVER
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...SINCE THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED
YESTERDAY HAS MODIFIED...A LEE TROUGH IS INDUCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS OUR FIRST
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHEAST AREAS FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE
SANGRES. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000
FEET. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON
PASS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN REBOUND AND
VARY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMER SYSTEM
CROSSING FROM THE WEST. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...AND A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY CREATE A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...CAPE REMAINS LIMITED BUT
MODEL LIFTED INDICES IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THE EAST.

MODELS ARE PAINTING A MUDDLED PICTURE AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
EXITS EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT. THEY
DO SEEM TO AGREE ON SOME LINGERING SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS
WET AS THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.  A COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AND
MODELS WITH LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS MEETING RH AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHIFTS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO AROUND THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT THE WESTERLY
WIND STRENGTH AND DURATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR WEST THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
AID IN GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE MODELS FORECAST AN SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW MOVES GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH THIS SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE OUR CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CHANCES FOR DRY LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALSO INCREASING
WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 152129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH A FEW TO
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS...AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND OVERNIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AFTER A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...A WARMER SYSTEM WILL PASS MORE DIRECTLY
OVER THE STATE FROM THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY THEN PERSIST
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT STRONG MODEL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A FEW TO 15 DEGREES OVER
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...SINCE THE COLDER AIRMASS THAT ARRIVED
YESTERDAY HAS MODIFIED...A LEE TROUGH IS INDUCING DOWNSLOPE FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD COVER.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS OUR FIRST
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES NORTHEAST AREAS FROM THE NW. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE
SANGRES. MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST AREAS. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 7000
FEET. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER INCLUDING RATON
PASS. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT
ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN.

AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD VARY FROM A FEW TO 12
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...WESTERN READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR TO A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN REBOUND AND
VARY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMER SYSTEM
CROSSING FROM THE WEST. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAS A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...AND A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY CREATE A
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...CAPE REMAINS LIMITED BUT
MODEL LIFTED INDICES IN THE -1 TO -3 RANGE ARE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE
ACROSS THE EAST.

MODELS ARE PAINTING A MUDDLED PICTURE AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM
EXITS EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT. THEY
DO SEEM TO AGREE ON SOME LINGERING SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THOSE SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS
WET AS THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.  A COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS IS DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE AND
MODELS WITH LIMITED ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY. MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS MEETING RH AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW.

COLD FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHIFTS WINDS TO NORTHERLY AND INCREASE
SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TO AROUND THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL LIMIT THE WESTERLY
WIND STRENGTH AND DURATION EARLIER IN THE DAY.  AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THIS
COLD FRONT PUSHES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.  A COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES ACROSS ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR WEST THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL
AID IN GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG RANGE MODELS FORECAST AN SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW MOVES GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW
AND MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. WITH THIS SUBTROPICAL WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND INCREASING
SURFACE MOISTURE OUR CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CHANCES FOR DRY LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALSO INCREASING
WITH THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TERMINALS VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  68  34  68 /   0   5   5   0
DULCE...........................  24  62  25  60 /   0  10  20   5
CUBA............................  28  65  28  61 /   0   5  10   0
GALLUP..........................  26  68  29  68 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  24  64  26  65 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  28  67  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  33  67  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  29  75  30  76 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  25  58  25  55 /   0  20  20   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  64  37  62 /   0   5  10   0
PECOS...........................  34  62  32  59 /   0   5  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  24  61  25  55 /   0  10  50   5
RED RIVER.......................  27  46  24  46 /   0  20  60  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  55  22  52 /   0  10  60  20
TAOS............................  24  63  26  59 /   0  10  30   5
MORA............................  31  62  29  56 /   0  10  30  10
ESPANOLA........................  32  69  34  66 /   0   5  20   5
SANTA FE........................  36  64  36  61 /   0   5  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  32  69  33  65 /   0   5  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  72  46  68 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  74  44  70 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  39  76  42  72 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  75  42  70 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  35  77  37  73 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  40  75  41  70 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  42  80  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  69  39  63 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  69  41  66 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  29  69  30  65 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  66  31  59 /   0   0   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  38  70  38  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  40  72  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  39  66  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  33  58  28  50 /   0  10  70  30
RATON...........................  29  63  31  54 /   0  10  60  20
SPRINGER........................  31  66  32  57 /   0  10  50  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  33  66  30  57 /   0   5  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  40  63  32  55 /   0   5  50  20
ROY.............................  37  66  32  55 /   0   5  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  40  73  39  63 /   0   5  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  40  76  39  64 /   0   0  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  39  77  39  62 /   0   0  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  37  77  40  61 /   0   0  10   0
PORTALES........................  38  78  41  63 /   0   0  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  39  79  43  66 /   0   0  10   0
ROSWELL.........................  38  83  46  71 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  43  77  42  67 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  43  72  41  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 151747
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ALL TERMINALS VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

01

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING AND HARD FREEZE WARNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST PUNCTUATED BY A FAST MOVING
MIDWEEK DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST TO MAKE ROOM FOR A WEEKEND
WEST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM ON A SLOW TRIP ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A
MIDWEEK COOL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SLIDE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BOUNCING EITHER SIDE OF MID APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD COMBINING WITH DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS NEW MEXICO KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR...AND ALLOWING DROP OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A SOLID
RADIATIONAL INVERSION PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT FOR AN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM FEATURES EMERGING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS BACKS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE BUCKLES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN DIGS TRAILING BLIP INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
REESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...AS BROAD SLOPPY
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO ENCROACH ON WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SHEARING MOMENTS IN SHORT
SUPPLY...TROUGH AXIS WILL COLLAPSE INTO POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRAILING WEAK RIDGE PUSHING OVER
THE STATE ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK. TIMING IS OFF
ON THE AGREEMENT...AS GFS SOLUTION LEADS BRINGING A TIGHT CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN AGGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A
MORE SHEARED...AND LESS OF THE GFS DIG N LIFT...SOLUTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW ON NEW MEXICO
IN PASSING. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINTING TO AN UNSETTLED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TILTED THAT WAY
PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM.

FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH STRONG MORNING
RADIATIONAL INVERSION AND BROAD COVERAGE OF FREEZING AND BELOW
TEMPERATURES...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY. WITH DOME CORE SHIFTING INTO THE HEART OF
TEXAS...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IMPARTED TO SURFACE WINDS WILL PUSH
MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD RETURN NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND LEAVE COOLER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SPOTS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY. DRY AND
SUNNY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MEET UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAGS FOR NOW. WARM
DAYTIME WILL SET UP A MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BUCKLING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO BACKING TO
ZONAL AS SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
STATE. SOME COOLER AIR WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO A FEW DEGREES WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLIPPING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL TOUCH OFF SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS INTERSTATE
40 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMIT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OUT OVER RATON
PASS AND INTO WESTERN UNION COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUMMITS...AND
EASTWARD OVER RATON RIDGE. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO
LOCAL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND BELOW. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A LOCAL
FIRE DANGER CONCERN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL KEEP NORTHERN SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...AS BULK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD PUSH WILL DROP EASTERN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE CHILLER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
WEST. LIGHT WINDS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WESTWARD
BULGING PUSH OF COOL AIR..AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO...AS DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THURSDAYS COOL
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID
APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TUG MOISTURE
AND IMPROVE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BETTER THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...CALIFORNIA SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH ARIZONA AND KNOCKING ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WILL
BRING WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...WITH COVERAGE REDUCING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE BLIP IN BROAD WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
DYNAMICS ACTIVE. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE SQUEAKING INTO THE TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY WILL ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD RISING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...BECOME WESTERLY AND GENERATE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AIR MASS IS
PLENTY DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL AND MODELS ARE NOW SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH HAINES INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH SUCH A
MARGINAL EVENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HIT RH
AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MAINLY DRY SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NW NM LIMITING THE STRONG
WIND DURATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
POINT WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105.

COLD FRONT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO ALL AREAS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN VENTILATION RATES IN THE
FAIR TO GOOD RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW BRINGS UP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44








000
FXUS65 KABQ 151452 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING AND HARD FREEZE WARNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON...A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST PUNCTUATED BY A FAST MOVING
MIDWEEK DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST TO MAKE ROOM FOR A WEEKEND
WEST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM ON A SLOW TRIP ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A
MIDWEEK COOL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SLIDE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BOUNCING EITHER SIDE OF MID APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD COMBINING WITH DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS NEW MEXICO KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR...AND ALLOWING DROP OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A SOLID
RADIATIONAL INVERSION PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT FOR AN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM FEATURES EMERGING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS BACKS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE BUCKLES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN DIGS TRAILING BLIP INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
REESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...AS BROAD SLOPPY
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO ENCROACH ON WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SHEARING MOMENTS IN SHORT
SUPPLY...TROUGH AXIS WILL COLLAPSE INTO POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRAILING WEAK RIDGE PUSHING OVER
THE STATE ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK. TIMING IS OFF
ON THE AGREEMENT...AS GFS SOLUTION LEADS BRINGING A TIGHT CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN AGGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A
MORE SHEARED...AND LESS OF THE GFS DIG N LIFT...SOLUTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW ON NEW MEXICO
IN PASSING. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINTING TO AN UNSETTLED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TILTED THAT WAY
PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM.

FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH STRONG MORNING
RADIATIONAL INVERSION AND BROAD COVERAGE OF FREEZING AND BELOW
TEMPERATURES...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY. WITH DOME CORE SHIFTING INTO THE HEART OF
TEXAS...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IMPARTED TO SURFACE WINDS WILL PUSH
MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD RETURN NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND LEAVE COOLER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SPOTS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY. DRY AND
SUNNY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MEET UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAGS FOR NOW. WARM
DAYTIME WILL SET UP A MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BUCKLING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO BACKING TO
ZONAL AS SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
STATE. SOME COOLER AIR WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO A FEW DEGREES WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLIPPING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL TOUCH OFF SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS INTERSTATE
40 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMIT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OUT OVER RATON
PASS AND INTO WESTERN UNION COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUMMITS...AND
EASTWARD OVER RATON RIDGE. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO
LOCAL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND BELOW. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A LOCAL
FIRE DANGER CONCERN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL KEEP NORTHERN SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...AS BULK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD PUSH WILL DROP EASTERN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE CHILLER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
WEST. LIGHT WINDS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WESTWARD
BULGING PUSH OF COOL AIR..AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO...AS DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THURSDAYS COOL
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID
APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TUG MOISTURE
AND IMPROVE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BETTER THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...CALIFORNIA SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH ARIZONA AND KNOCKING ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WILL
BRING WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...WITH COVERAGE REDUCING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE BLIP IN BROAD WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
DYNAMICS ACTIVE. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE SQUEAKING INTO THE TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY WILL ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD RISING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...BECOME WESTERLY AND GENERATE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AIR MASS IS
PLENTY DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL AND MODELS ARE NOW SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH HAINES INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH SUCH A
MARGINAL EVENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HIT RH
AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MAINLY DRY SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NW NM LIMITING THE STRONG
WIND DURATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
POINT WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105.

COLD FRONT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO ALL AREAS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN VENTILATION RATES IN THE
FAIR TO GOOD RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW BRINGS UP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 151138 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON...A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...244 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST PUNCTUATED BY A FAST MOVING
MIDWEEK DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST TO MAKE ROOM FOR A WEEKEND
WEST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM ON A SLOW TRIP ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A
MIDWEEK COOL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SLIDE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BOUNCING EITHER SIDE OF MID APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD COMBINING WITH DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS NEW MEXICO KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR...AND ALLOWING DROP OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A SOLID
RADIATIONAL INVERSION PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT FOR AN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM FEATURES EMERGING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS BACKS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE BUCKLES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN DIGS TRAILING BLIP INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
REESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...AS BROAD SLOPPY
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO ENCROACH ON WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SHEARING MOMENTS IN SHORT
SUPPLY...TROUGH AXIS WILL COLLAPSE INTO POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRAILING WEAK RIDGE PUSHING OVER
THE STATE ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK. TIMING IS OFF
ON THE AGREEMENT...AS GFS SOLUTION LEADS BRINGING A TIGHT CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN AGGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A
MORE SHEARED...AND LESS OF THE GFS DIG N LIFT...SOLUTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW ON NEW MEXICO
IN PASSING. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINTING TO AN UNSETTLED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TILTED THAT WAY
PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM.

FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH STRONG MORNING
RADIATIONAL INVERSION AND BROAD COVERAGE OF FREEZING AND BELOW
TEMPERATURES...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY. WITH DOME CORE SHIFTING INTO THE HEART OF
TEXAS...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IMPARTED TO SURFACE WINDS WILL PUSH
MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD RETURN NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND LEAVE COOLER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SPOTS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY. DRY AND
SUNNY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MEET UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAGS FOR NOW. WARM
DAYTIME WILL SET UP A MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BUCKLING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO BACKING TO
ZONAL AS SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
STATE. SOME COOLER AIR WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO A FEW DEGREES WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLIPPING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL TOUCH OFF SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS INTERSTATE
40 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMIT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OUT OVER RATON
PASS AND INTO WESTERN UNION COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUMMITS...AND
EASTWARD OVER RATON RIDGE. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO
LOCAL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND BELOW. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A LOCAL
FIRE DANGER CONCERN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL KEEP NORTHERN SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...AS BULK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD PUSH WILL DROP EASTERN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE CHILLER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
WEST. LIGHT WINDS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WESTWARD
BULGING PUSH OF COOL AIR..AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO...AS DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THURSDAYS COOL
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID
APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TUG MOISTURE
AND IMPROVE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BETTER THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...CALIFORNIA SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH ARIZONA AND KNOCKING ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WILL
BRING WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...WITH COVERAGE REDUCING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE BLIP IN BROAD WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
DYNAMICS ACTIVE. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE SQUEAKING INTO THE TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY WILL ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD RISING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...BECOME WESTERLY AND GENERATE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AIR MASS IS
PLENTY DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL AND MODELS ARE NOW SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH HAINES INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH SUCH A
MARGINAL EVENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HIT RH
AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MAINLY DRY SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NW NM LIMITING THE STRONG
WIND DURATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
POINT WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105.

COLD FRONT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO ALL AREAS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN VENTILATION RATES IN THE
FAIR TO GOOD RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW BRINGS UP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-530>540.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520-525.

&&

$$

SHY












000
FXUS65 KABQ 150844
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
244 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE U.S. WEST COAST PUNCTUATED BY A FAST MOVING
MIDWEEK DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST TO MAKE ROOM FOR A WEEKEND
WEST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM ON A SLOW TRIP ACROSS NEW MEXICO. A
MIDWEEK COOL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SLIDE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
BOUNCING EITHER SIDE OF MID APRIL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD COMBINING WITH DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS NEW MEXICO KEEPING SKIES
CLEAR...AND ALLOWING DROP OF OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
OVER MUCH OF THE EAST...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT WINDS WILL SET UP A SOLID
RADIATIONAL INVERSION PROVIDING ADDED SUPPORT FOR AN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURE DROP.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF UPSTREAM FEATURES EMERGING THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
PLAUSIBLE CONSENSUS BACKS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO ZONAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE BUCKLES THE FLOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN DIGS TRAILING BLIP INTO NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
REESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY THURSDAY MIDDAY...AS BROAD SLOPPY
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ONSHORE
CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY...AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO ENCROACH ON WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SATURDAY. WITH SHEARING MOMENTS IN SHORT
SUPPLY...TROUGH AXIS WILL COLLAPSE INTO POSITIVE TILT ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TRAILING WEAK RIDGE PUSHING OVER
THE STATE ON MONDAY. UPSTREAM DIFFERENCES HAVE A FAIRLY DEEP
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA EARLY
TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY MIDWEEK. TIMING IS OFF
ON THE AGREEMENT...AS GFS SOLUTION LEADS BRINGING A TIGHT CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND LIFTING IT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN AGGRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A
MORE SHEARED...AND LESS OF THE GFS DIG N LIFT...SOLUTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S...WITH ONLY A GLANCING BLOW ON NEW MEXICO
IN PASSING. BOTH SOLUTIONS POINTING TO AN UNSETTLED MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK...AND WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST THINKING TILTED THAT WAY
PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION UPSTREAM.

FOR TODAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH STRONG MORNING
RADIATIONAL INVERSION AND BROAD COVERAGE OF FREEZING AND BELOW
TEMPERATURES...AS DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLED ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TODAY. WITH DOME CORE SHIFTING INTO THE HEART OF
TEXAS...SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IMPARTED TO SURFACE WINDS WILL PUSH
MUCH WARMER AIR NORTHWARD RETURN NORTHERN AND WESTERN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES...AND LEAVE COOLER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SPOTS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY. DRY AND
SUNNY...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL MEET UP WITH LOW HUMIDITIES OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS...BUT COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAGS FOR NOW. WARM
DAYTIME WILL SET UP A MUCH WARMER OVERNIGHT WITH SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND WEST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BUCKLING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO BACKING TO
ZONAL AS SPRAWLING SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
STATE. SOME COOLER AIR WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO A FEW DEGREES WARM ANOMALY OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. CLIPPING DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL TOUCH OFF SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS INTERSTATE
40 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUMMIT SNOW
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND OUT OVER RATON
PASS AND INTO WESTERN UNION COUNTY BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER SUMMITS...AND
EASTWARD OVER RATON RIDGE. CURRENT FORECASTS KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS TO
LOCAL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND BELOW. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH A LOCAL
FIRE DANGER CONCERN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

FOR THURSDAY...COLD FRONT PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WILL KEEP NORTHERN SUMMIT SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE
DAY...AS BULK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD PUSH WILL DROP EASTERN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE CHILLER...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING 10
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN. CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE
WEST. LIGHT WINDS...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE WESTWARD
BULGING PUSH OF COOL AIR..AND WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF INBOUND PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL
OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO...AS DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT SURFACE LOW OVER NEVADA AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TAKE THE EDGE OFF THURSDAYS COOL
DOWN...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN 6 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW MID
APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH A FEW DEGREES TO THE WARM SIDE
OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. INCOMING TROUGH WILL HELP TUG MOISTURE
AND IMPROVE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST AND NORTH FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME BETTER THUNDER CHANCES AS WELL. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE BREEZY OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...CALIFORNIA SURFACE TROUGH
THROUGH ARIZONA AND KNOCKING ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WILL
BRING WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...WITH COVERAGE REDUCING TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS
TRAILING SHORTWAVE BLIP IN BROAD WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS
DYNAMICS ACTIVE. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER NEW MEXICO ON
MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE SQUEAKING INTO THE TEXAS BORDER COUNTRY MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE.
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH COUNTRY WILL ALSO SEE SOME THUNDER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. SLIGHT
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD RISING FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND INCREASING
MOISTURE FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

MODERATE TO STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE...BECOME WESTERLY AND GENERATE A LEE SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AIR MASS IS
PLENTY DRY AND WINDS IN EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS REACH CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID
APRIL AND MODELS ARE NOW SOMEWHAT LOWER WITH HAINES INDICES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WITH SUCH A
MARGINAL EVENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL HIT RH
AND WIND CRITERIA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE WIND MAXIMUM ALOFT EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SPEEDS NEAR
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE WEST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT A MAINLY DRY SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH NW NM LIMITING THE STRONG
WIND DURATION. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS
POINT WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 105.

COLD FRONT DROPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS
AND PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SETTLES INTO ALL AREAS THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY EAST. THE
COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN VENTILATION RATES IN THE
FAIR TO GOOD RANGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE WITH IDEA OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW BRINGS UP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN PLAINS WHILE LOW AND
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES UP WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING TOWARD MUCH HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG MAY
REDEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MORENO
VALLEY NEAR KAXX...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  35  69  33 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  60  25  63  24 /   0   0   5  20
CUBA............................  63  28  65  28 /   0   0   5  10
GALLUP..........................  66  28  67  28 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  62  25  62  27 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  66  28  67  30 /   0   0   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  66  32  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  72  31  76  32 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  56  25  59  24 /   0   0  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  35  65  37 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  58  34  63  33 /   0   0   5  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  59  25  63  26 /   0   0  10  30
RED RIVER.......................  51  28  48  25 /   0   0  20  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  54  25  55  24 /   0   0  10  40
TAOS............................  60  24  63  27 /   0   0   5  20
MORA............................  58  30  62  30 /   0   0   5  30
ESPANOLA........................  67  32  71  34 /   0   0   5  20
SANTA FE........................  60  35  64  35 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  32  70  33 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  43  72  44 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  43  73  43 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  40  75  41 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  41  76  42 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  71  36  77  38 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  71  41  75  41 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  70  44  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  65  39  70  38 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  64  40  69  39 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  63  31  69  31 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  61  34  66  32 /   0   0   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  70  38 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  41  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  59  40  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  59  33  62  27 /   0   0  10  50
RATON...........................  64  30  65  30 /   0   0  10  50
SPRINGER........................  65  32  65  31 /   0   0   5  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  34  66  30 /   0   0   0  20
CLAYTON.........................  65  40  68  33 /   0   0   5  40
ROY.............................  65  38  67  32 /   0   0   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  70  41  74  39 /   0   0   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  69  41  75  39 /   0   0   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  41  77  39 /   0   0   0  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  37  76  39 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  65  37  77  41 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  40  78  42 /   0   0   0  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  41  85  46 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  68  44  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  65  43  73  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-530>540.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ519-520-525.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 150516
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1116 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG MAY
REDEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS SUCH AS THE MORENO
VALLEY NEAR KAXX...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE TUESDAY...ONLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLIPS NORTHEAST AREAS AND
SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBUQUERQUE. AFTER A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...HELPING READINGS TO
PLUMMET. THE LEAST LIKELY AREAS TO FREEZE WILL BE THE NORTHEAST
HEIGHTS OF ALBUQUERQUE AND SPOTTY OTHER MID SLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TOP OF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING...WARMING WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CLIPS NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD JOURNEY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS DUE TO SOME EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE WEATHER MAY MOVE IN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES NM...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND SHALLOWER. WITH
THE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM THE WEST IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY SYSTEM...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE STRONG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY AND SOME HAINES 5/6
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITER IN TERMS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY LIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND RECENT SNOWFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
SHOWS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITER RIGHT NOW...IN TERMS OF ISSUING A WATCH WOULD BE
SPATIAL COVERAGE. HAINES VALUES APPEAR TO BE 5/6 WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS.
WILL WATCH ZONE 109/105 CLOSELY FOR WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE DRIER STORMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW RAPID DRYING THROUGH SUNDOWN. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL SHOW LESS DRYING. COOLER TEMPS...DRIER
AIR/LOWER WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
RAPID COOLING. A FREEZE TO HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY IMPACT GROWING VEGETATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
SHARPLY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. ONCE MIXING REALLY GETS GOING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR MUCH LOWER RH VALUES. CAN SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS SIGNAL IS SHOWING
UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW AREAS. THE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY
ALOFT. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS ALOFT BUT STRENGTHENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD. GETTING A
GOOD COVERAGE OF STRONG WIND/LOW RH SHOWING UP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME PATCHY AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HAINES DOESNT APPEAR TO BE THE LIMITER BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO NORMAL VALUES SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH. A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL IN THAT REGARD AND THAT AREA RECEIVED
RECENT MOISTURE. THUS...NOT AS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RED FLAG
ISSUANCE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS HIGHER HUMIDITY SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN TERMS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BE POOR TO POSSIBLY VERY POOR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST
AREAS. THE WIND FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MTN WAVES. SPEEDS SHOULDNT BE
AS STRONG AS OBSERVED DURING PREVIOUS EVENTS THE PAST 2 MONTHS. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONES
105/109 AS WELL AS BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH LOCATION. MODELS HAVE JUMPED
AROUND A LITTLE BIT ON THIS. SEEING SOME HIGH HAINES VALUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS WELL. BACK DOOR INTRUSION WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD
DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THAT WOULD LIMIT STRONG WIND/LOW RH
POTENTIAL THERE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD PICK UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ABUT UP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS. MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH.

MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP.
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD ALSO LOWER AS SOME SORT OF DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WEAK WAVE
PASSAGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE PASSAGE
FOR QUITE SOME TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING. WHAT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM APPEAR TO BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY. LOCALIZED DOWN BURSTS
OF WIND WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CELLS. OTHERWISE...FLOW DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG.

DONT SEE ANY LARGE SCALE VENTILATION ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

50

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-530>540.

FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ519-520-525.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 150007
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
607 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS HAVE EITHER BURNED OFF COMPLETELY OR CEILINGS HAVE
RISEN ENOUGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SOME LOCALIZED LOW CLOUDS AND
FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVER LOCALIZED HIGH ELEVATION VALLEYS
SUCH AS THE MORENO VALLEY NEAR KAXX...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. BREEZES WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE TUESDAY...ONLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLIPS NORTHEAST AREAS AND
SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBUQUERQUE. AFTER A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...HELPING READINGS TO
PLUMMET. THE LEAST LIKELY AREAS TO FREEZE WILL BE THE NORTHEAST
HEIGHTS OF ALBUQUERQUE AND SPOTTY OTHER MID SLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TOP OF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING...WARMING WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CLIPS NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD JOURNEY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS DUE TO SOME EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE WEATHER MAY MOVE IN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES NM...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND SHALLOWER. WITH
THE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM THE WEST IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY SYSTEM...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE STRONG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY AND SOME HAINES 5/6
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITER IN TERMS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY LIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND RECENT SNOWFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
SHOWS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITER RIGHT NOW...IN TERMS OF ISSUING A WATCH WOULD BE
SPATIAL COVERAGE. HAINES VALUES APPEAR TO BE 5/6 WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS.
WILL WATCH ZONE 109/105 CLOSELY FOR WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE DRIER STORMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW RAPID DRYING THROUGH SUNDOWN. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL SHOW LESS DRYING. COOLER TEMPS...DRIER
AIR/LOWER WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
RAPID COOLING. A FREEZE TO HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY IMPACT GROWING VEGETATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
SHARPLY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. ONCE MIXING REALLY GETS GOING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR MUCH LOWER RH VALUES. CAN SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS SIGNAL IS SHOWING
UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW AREAS. THE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY
ALOFT. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS ALOFT BUT STRENGTHENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD. GETTING A
GOOD COVERAGE OF STRONG WIND/LOW RH SHOWING UP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME PATCHY AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HAINES DOESNT APPEAR TO BE THE LIMITER BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO NORMAL VALUES SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH. A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL IN THAT REGARD AND THAT AREA RECEIVED
RECENT MOISTURE. THUS...NOT AS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RED FLAG
ISSUANCE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS HIGHER HUMIDITY SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN TERMS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BE POOR TO POSSIBLY VERY POOR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST
AREAS. THE WIND FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MTN WAVES. SPEEDS SHOULDNT BE
AS STRONG AS OBSERVED DURING PREVIOUS EVENTS THE PAST 2 MONTHS. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONES
105/109 AS WELL AS BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH LOCATION. MODELS HAVE JUMPED
AROUND A LITTLE BIT ON THIS. SEEING SOME HIGH HAINES VALUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS WELL. BACK DOOR INTRUSION WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD
DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THAT WOULD LIMIT STRONG WIND/LOW RH
POTENTIAL THERE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD PICK UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ABUT UP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS. MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH.

MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP.
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD ALSO LOWER AS SOME SORT OF DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WEAK WAVE
PASSAGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE PASSAGE
FOR QUITE SOME TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING. WHAT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM APPEAR TO BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY. LOCALIZED DOWN BURSTS
OF WIND WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CELLS. OTHERWISE...FLOW DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG.

DONT SEE ANY LARGE SCALE VENTILATION ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

50

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-530>540.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-525.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 142119
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE TUESDAY...ONLY FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CLIPS NORTHEAST AREAS AND
SENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF ALBUQUERQUE. AFTER A BREAK
IN THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CAUSE PRECIP CHANCES TO INCREASE AGAIN AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...HELPING READINGS TO
PLUMMET. THE LEAST LIKELY AREAS TO FREEZE WILL BE THE NORTHEAST
HEIGHTS OF ALBUQUERQUE AND SPOTTY OTHER MID SLOPE LOCATIONS NEAR
THE TOP OF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION.

AFTER A COLD START TUESDAY MORNING...WARMING WILL COMMENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN SEND A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CLIPS NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD JOURNEY FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS DUE TO SOME EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. THE WEATHER MAY MOVE IN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING A BRIEF DRY PERIOD THURSDAY
NIGHT. THEN...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK AREAWIDE THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS
AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES NM...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND SHALLOWER. WITH
THE SYSTEM CROSSING FROM THE WEST IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN THE WEDNESDAY THURSDAY SYSTEM...AND
SHOULD PRODUCE PRECIP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE STRONG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY AND SOME HAINES 5/6
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIMITER IN TERMS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS TUESDAY LIES WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND RECENT SNOWFALL. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WIND AND LOW HUMIDITY
SHOWS UP ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITER RIGHT NOW...IN TERMS OF ISSUING A WATCH WOULD BE
SPATIAL COVERAGE. HAINES VALUES APPEAR TO BE 5/6 WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS.
WILL WATCH ZONE 109/105 CLOSELY FOR WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLE DRIER STORMS
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE ACROSS THE EAST. DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO FALL BUT ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW RAPID DRYING THROUGH SUNDOWN. AREAS THAT RECEIVED
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL SHOW LESS DRYING. COOLER TEMPS...DRIER
AIR/LOWER WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO
RAPID COOLING. A FREEZE TO HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA AND MOSTLY IMPACT GROWING VEGETATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY WHILE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL
SHARPLY. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. ONCE MIXING REALLY GETS GOING DURING THE
AFTERNOON...LOOK FOR MUCH LOWER RH VALUES. CAN SEE SOME SINGLE
DIGITS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS SIGNAL IS SHOWING
UP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NW AREAS. THE FLOW WILL TURN WESTERLY
ALOFT. NOT LOOKING AT REAL STRONG WINDS ALOFT BUT STRENGTHENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MTNS EASTWARD. GETTING A
GOOD COVERAGE OF STRONG WIND/LOW RH SHOWING UP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME PATCHY AREAS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. HAINES DOESNT APPEAR TO BE THE LIMITER BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET TO NORMAL VALUES SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
WATCH. A LITTLE TOO MARGINAL IN THAT REGARD AND THAT AREA RECEIVED
RECENT MOISTURE. THUS...NOT AS CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RED FLAG
ISSUANCE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BECOME MORE ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS HIGHER HUMIDITY SPILLS IN FROM THE NORTH. A VERY
DRY AIRMASS IN TERMS OF SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
WILL BE POOR TO POSSIBLY VERY POOR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MOST
AREAS. THE WIND FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE WEST
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED MTN WAVES. SPEEDS SHOULDNT BE
AS STRONG AS OBSERVED DURING PREVIOUS EVENTS THE PAST 2 MONTHS. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS ZONES
105/109 AS WELL AS BETWEEN CLINES CORNERS TO SANTA ROSA ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TROUGH LOCATION. MODELS HAVE JUMPED
AROUND A LITTLE BIT ON THIS. SEEING SOME HIGH HAINES VALUES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WELL ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS
DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST AS WELL. BACK DOOR INTRUSION WITH
HIGHER HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD
DURING THE AFTERNOON SO THAT WOULD LIMIT STRONG WIND/LOW RH
POTENTIAL THERE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD PICK UP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. LOOKING AT SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS. BACK DOOR FRONT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY ABUT UP TO THE CENTRAL MTNS. MUCH
HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONTAL PUSH.

MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP.
HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD ALSO LOWER AS SOME SORT OF DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A WEAK WAVE
PASSAGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS WAVE PASSAGE
FOR QUITE SOME TIME SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING. WHAT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.
AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW...SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM APPEAR TO BE OF THE DRIER VARIETY. LOCALIZED DOWN BURSTS
OF WIND WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CELLS. OTHERWISE...FLOW DOESNT
APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT STRONG.

DONT SEE ANY LARGE SCALE VENTILATION ISSUES THROUGH THE WEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS.
CLEARING TONIGHT AND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  25  67  34  69 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  15  61  24  63 /   5   0   0  10
CUBA............................  19  64  27  65 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  17  67  28  66 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  19  61  24  61 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  16  66  27  66 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  22  66  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  72  29  76 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  15  57  25  59 /   5   0   0  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  25  61  35  64 /   0   0   0  10
PECOS...........................  21  58  34  62 /   5   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  60  25  63 /   5   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  10  52  28  47 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  14  55  24  55 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  14  61  24  63 /   5   0   0  10
MORA............................  19  58  30  61 /   5   0   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  26  68  32  71 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  24  61  35  64 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  24  66  32  70 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  69  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  34  69  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  33  73  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  31  71  35  76 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  33  72  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  32  70  43  79 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  66  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  26  64  40  69 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  21  63  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  61  33  66 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  62  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  31  64  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  25  59  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  59  33  62 /   5   0   0  10
RATON...........................  17  65  30  65 /   5   0   0  10
SPRINGER........................  18  66  32  64 /   5   0   0  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  63  34  66 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  23  66  39  68 /   5   0   0  10
ROY.............................  21  66  37  67 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  70  40  74 /   5   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  25  69  40  74 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  25  71  40  77 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  24  64  36  75 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  24  65  37  76 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  26  68  40  77 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  28  69  40  85 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  24  68  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  24  66  43  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-530>540.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-525.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 141754 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALSO LOWERED
TEMPERATURES AND ADJUSTED WINDS AND SKY COVER FOR TODAY BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE...RADAR...MOS AND GRAPHICAL MODEL TRENDS. THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL FREEZE
TONIGHT...EXCEPT MAYBE FOR THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS OF ALBUQUERQUE
AND SPOTTY MID SLOPE AREAS NEAR THE TOP OF THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION CENTRAL AND WEST. MANY PARTS OF THE EAST ARE LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A HARD FREEZE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
NOW AND WILL LIKELY UPGRADE WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY FOR STATE LINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST PLAINS SLATED
FOR EXPIRATION AT 6 A.M. MDT. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT CANNON AFB ALL
NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND CANNON SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STATEMENT OUT SHORTLY...FRESH
ZONES AFTER 6 A.M. MDT.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP TROUGH CROSSING OUT OF EASTERN NM INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SNOW
COVERAGE WITH IFR EXCURSIONS WILL TAPER OFF STEADILY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 18Z LATER TODAY. LOCAL EAST GUSTS FOR ABQ WILL KICK
IN BY 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEIGHBORING SANDIA MTS TO THE
EAST. RESULTING MT OBSCURATION SHOULD LIFT BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VIZ ACROSS THE STATE FROM 21Z ONWARD TO 12Z TUE MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...SO ONLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID OR PERHAPS LATE MORNING. ALL OF FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURE NORMS TODAY...EASTERN
AREAS FAR BELOW NORMAL. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY
AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...ONE
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER PERHAPS NEAR THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL...SECOND SHOULD BE A WARMER SYSTEM
WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WINTRY WEATHER MAKER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA SO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS
EARLY...THOUGH WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF SOME PATCHY SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREAS GOING FOR NOW. WHILE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR LATER TODAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE ISSUE OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER
TONIGHT. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME LOCALES IN THE LOWER AND
MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE
VALLEY WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 4
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS IS THAT MORE NORTHERN
AREAS ARE STILL EARLIER THAN THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE
DATES...WHILE MORE SOUTHERLY ZONES ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE PAST
THOSE DATES. SO FOR NOW...AFTER POSING THIS ISSUE TO MY GRAVEYARD
PARTNER...IT WAS DECIDED TO GO FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE
NORMALLY WARNED FOR FREEZE ZONES THAT ARE AT OR PAST THEIR NORMAL
LAST 28 AND OR 32 DEGREE DATES. WILL ONLY GO WITH FREEZE WATCH AND
NOT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN HARD AND REGULAR FREEZE WATCH...PARTLY
BECAUSE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE QUIETER WX AND A LOT MORE TIME TO HASH
OUT THE DETAILS AND INDEED THE EFFICACY OF WARNING ISSUANCES GIVEN
THAT SOME PLACES ARE PAST AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES AND OTHERS
BEFORE THEIR DATES.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR LATER WED INTO THU LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
COLD AND WITH PRECIP PERHAPS NOT PENETRATING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST
AS THE CURRENTLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM...A MUCH WARMER ONE...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE SNOW
EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL OUTLOOK...CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BASIC STORY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK WITH SOME
DAILY DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC
CANADA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST COLLAPSES INTO A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND OFF INTO LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
BY MIDWEEK WITH NEW MEXICO NEAR THE TROUGH BASE. TROUGH WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO TEXAS THURSDAY...AS BAGGY TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC AND WEAK INTERVENING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTRODUCING BACKING BUT FAIRLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. BASIC SOUTHWEST FLOW DEAL ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT OF TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. NEXT...AND MORE MUSCULAR...NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BOUND FOR AN
EASTBOUND TRIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR TODAY...MUCH COLDER TODAY...WITH EASTERN PLAINS RUNNING 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS PARENT SYSTEM MOVES OFF
INTO TEXAS. SUBSTANTIAL BOOST IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S
OVER THE EAST...WITH TEENS PCT COMMON OVER THE WEST. NORTHERLY
BREEZES STRONGEST IN THE MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS LINE WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS WITH
FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH RETURN SURFACE FLOW
IMPARTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WHIPLASH WARM UP WILL BRING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY BACK TO WITHIN 10
DEGREES OF MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND TO NORMAL VALUES
OVER THE WEST. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND RAPID DROPS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK TO THE
LOW TEENS PCT WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...BUT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL CONDITIONS...AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HAINES INDICES REMAINING NEAR 3 AND 4...AND ONLY LOCALLY TO
5...WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH FOR NOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES WITH FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD ROUNDING OUT OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE BUILDING UNDER THE OVERHEAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME RANGE CHANGING OVER TO
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS PCT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN TIER...LOCALIZED WESTERLY BREEZES WILL SET UP LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GUSTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEST CANDIDATES FOR RAMPED UP FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WOULD EDGE AWAY FROM A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AS HAINES INDICES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 5 AND 6 OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEST IMPROVING TO GOOD OVER THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD PLUNGE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO THE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND SPEEDY NORTHEAST BREEZES SET UP NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MID APRIL NORMALS...AS SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND EXPANDING EASTWARD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY IN THE EAST LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT INTO SATURDAY. VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION CONDITIONS ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-524-525-533>540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$

44








000
FXUS65 KABQ 141747 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS.
CLEARING TONIGHT AND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY FOR STATE LINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST PLAINS SLATED
FOR EXPIRATION AT 6 A.M. MDT. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT CANNON AFB ALL
NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND CANNON SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STATEMENT OUT SHORTLY...FRESH
ZONES AFTER 6 A.M. MDT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...SO ONLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID OR PERHAPS LATE MORNING. ALL OF FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURE NORMS TODAY...EASTERN
AREAS FAR BELOW NORMAL. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY
AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...ONE
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER PERHAPS NEAR THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL...SECOND SHOULD BE A WARMER SYSTEM
WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WINTRY WEATHER MAKER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA SO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS
EARLY...THOUGH WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF SOME PATCHY SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREAS GOING FOR NOW. WHILE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR LATER TODAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE ISSUE OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER
TONIGHT. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME LOCALES IN THE LOWER AND
MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE
VALLEY WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 4
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS IS THAT MORE NORTHERN
AREAS ARE STILL EARLIER THAN THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE
DATES...WHILE MORE SOUTHERLY ZONES ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE PAST
THOSE DATES. SO FOR NOW...AFTER POSING THIS ISSUE TO MY GRAVEYARD
PARTNER...IT WAS DECIDED TO GO FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE
NORMALLY WARNED FOR FREEZE ZONES THAT ARE AT OR PAST THEIR NORMAL
LAST 28 AND OR 32 DEGREE DATES. WILL ONLY GO WITH FREEZE WATCH AND
NOT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN HARD AND REGULAR FREEZE WATCH...PARTLY
BECAUSE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE QUIETER WX AND A LOT MORE TIME TO HASH
OUT THE DETAILS AND INDEED THE EFFICACY OF WARNING ISSUANCES GIVEN
THAT SOME PLACES ARE PAST AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES AND OTHERS
BEFORE THEIR DATES.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR LATER WED INTO THU LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
COLD AND WITH PRECIP PERHAPS NOT PENETRATING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST
AS THE CURRENTLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM...A MUCH WARMER ONE...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE SNOW
EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL OUTLOOK...CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BASIC STORY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK WITH SOME
DAILY DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC
CANADA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST COLLAPSES INTO A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND OFF INTO LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
BY MIDWEEK WITH NEW MEXICO NEAR THE TROUGH BASE. TROUGH WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO TEXAS THURSDAY...AS BAGGY TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC AND WEAK INTERVENING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTRODUCING BACKING BUT FAIRLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. BASIC SOUTHWEST FLOW DEAL ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT OF TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. NEXT...AND MORE MUSCULAR...NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BOUND FOR AN
EASTBOUND TRIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR TODAY...MUCH COLDER TODAY...WITH EASTERN PLAINS RUNNING 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS PARENT SYSTEM MOVES OFF
INTO TEXAS. SUBSTANTIAL BOOST IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S
OVER THE EAST...WITH TEENS PCT COMMON OVER THE WEST. NORTHERLY
BREEZES STRONGEST IN THE MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS LINE WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS WITH
FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH RETURN SURFACE FLOW
IMPARTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WHIPLASH WARM UP WILL BRING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY BACK TO WITHIN 10
DEGREES OF MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND TO NORMAL VALUES
OVER THE WEST. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND RAPID DROPS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK TO THE
LOW TEENS PCT WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...BUT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL CONDITIONS...AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HAINES INDICES REMAINING NEAR 3 AND 4...AND ONLY LOCALLY TO
5...WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH FOR NOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES WITH FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD ROUNDING OUT OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE BUILDING UNDER THE OVERHEAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME RANGE CHANGING OVER TO
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS PCT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN TIER...LOCALIZED WESTERLY BREEZES WILL SET UP LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GUSTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEST CANDIDATES FOR RAMPED UP FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WOULD EDGE AWAY FROM A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AS HAINES INDICES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 5 AND 6 OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEST IMPROVING TO GOOD OVER THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD PLUNGE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO THE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND SPEEDY NORTHEAST BREEZES SET UP NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MID APRIL NORMALS...AS SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND EXPANDING EASTWARD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY IN THE EAST LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT INTO SATURDAY. VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION CONDITIONS ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM 11 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-524-525-533>540.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 141142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORY FOR STATE LINE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST PLAINS SLATED
FOR EXPIRATION AT 6 A.M. MDT. ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT CANNON AFB ALL
NOW BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND CANNON SHOULD BE DROPPING OFF
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. STATEMENT OUT SHORTLY...FRESH
ZONES AFTER 6 A.M. MDT.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP TROUGH CROSSING OUT OF EASTERN NM INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SNOW
COVERAGE WITH IFR EXCURSIONS WILL TAPER OFF STEADILY FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH 18Z LATER TODAY. LOCAL EAST GUSTS FOR ABQ WILL KICK
IN BY 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS NEIGHBORING SANDIA MTS TO THE
EAST. RESULTING MT OBSCURATION SHOULD LIFT BY 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CIGS AND VIZ ACROSS THE STATE FROM 21Z ONWARD TO 12Z TUE MORNING.


SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...SO ONLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID OR PERHAPS LATE MORNING. ALL OF FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURE NORMS TODAY...EASTERN
AREAS FAR BELOW NORMAL. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY
AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...ONE
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER PERHAPS NEAR THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL...SECOND SHOULD BE A WARMER SYSTEM
WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WINTRY WEATHER MAKER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA SO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS
EARLY...THOUGH WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF SOME PATCHY SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREAS GOING FOR NOW. WHILE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR LATER TODAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE ISSUE OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER
TONIGHT. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME LOCALES IN THE LOWER AND
MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE
VALLEY WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 4
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS IS THAT MORE NORTHERN
AREAS ARE STILL EARLIER THAN THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE
DATES...WHILE MORE SOUTHERLY ZONES ARE GENERALLY A LITTLE PAST
THOSE DATES. SO FOR NOW...AFTER POSING THIS ISSUE TO MY GRAVEYARD
PARTNER...IT WAS DECIDED TO GO FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE
NORMALLY WARNED FOR FREEZE ZONES THAT ARE AT OR PAST THEIR NORMAL
LAST 28 AND OR 32 DEGREE DATES. WILL ONLY GO WITH FREEZE WATCH AND
NOT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN HARD AND REGULAR FREEZE WATCH...PARTLY
BECAUSE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE QUIETER WX AND A LOT MORE TIME TO HASH
OUT THE DETAILS AND INDEED THE EFFICACY OF WARNING ISSUANCES GIVEN
THAT SOME PLACES ARE PAST AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES AND OTHERS
BEFORE THEIR DATES.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR LATER WED INTO THU LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
COLD AND WITH PRECIP PERHAPS NOT PENETRATING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST
AS THE CURRENTLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM...A MUCH WARMER ONE...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE SNOW
EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL OUTLOOK...CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BASIC STORY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK WITH SOME
DAILY DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC
CANADA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST COLLAPSES INTO A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND OFF INTO LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
BY MIDWEEK WITH NEW MEXICO NEAR THE TROUGH BASE. TROUGH WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO TEXAS THURSDAY...AS BAGGY TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC AND WEAK INTERVENING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTRODUCING BACKING BUT FAIRLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. BASIC SOUTHWEST FLOW DEAL ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT OF TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. NEXT...AND MORE MUSCULAR...NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BOUND FOR AN
EASTBOUND TRIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR TODAY...MUCH COLDER TODAY...WITH EASTERN PLAINS RUNNING 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS PARENT SYSTEM MOVES OFF
INTO TEXAS. SUBSTANTIAL BOOST IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S
OVER THE EAST...WITH TEENS PCT COMMON OVER THE WEST. NORTHERLY
BREEZES STRONGEST IN THE MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS LINE WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS WITH
FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH RETURN SURFACE FLOW
IMPARTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WHIPLASH WARM UP WILL BRING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY BACK TO WITHIN 10
DEGREES OF MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND TO NORMAL VALUES
OVER THE WEST. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND RAPID DROPS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK TO THE
LOW TEENS PCT WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...BUT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL CONDITIONS...AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HAINES INDICES REMAINING NEAR 3 AND 4...AND ONLY LOCALLY TO
5...WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH FOR NOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES WITH FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD ROUNDING OUT OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE BUILDING UNDER THE OVERHEAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME RANGE CHANGING OVER TO
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS PCT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN TIER...LOCALIZED WESTERLY BREEZES WILL SET UP LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GUSTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEST CANDIDATES FOR RAMPED UP FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WOULD EDGE AWAY FROM A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AS HAINES INDICES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 5 AND 6 OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEST IMPROVING TO GOOD OVER THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD PLUNGE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO THE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND SPEEDY NORTHEAST BREEZES SET UP NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MID APRIL NORMALS...AS SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND EXPANDING EASTWARD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY IN THE EAST LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT INTO SATURDAY. VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION CONDITIONS ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-524-525-532>540.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 140955
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
INCLEMENT WINTRY WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING TO EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA...SO ONLY SOME LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED...
MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN UNTIL MID OR PERHAPS LATE MORNING. ALL OF FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURE NORMS TODAY...EASTERN
AREAS FAR BELOW NORMAL. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
NEARLY ALL OF FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TUESDAY
AND AT LEAST A LITTLE MORE MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY. TWO MORE STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT OVER THE NEXT WEEK...ONE
BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND ANOTHER PERHAPS NEAR THE
WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTHEAST THIRD WITH
SOME RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL...SECOND SHOULD BE A WARMER SYSTEM
WITH MAINLY SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WINTRY WEATHER MAKER IS IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA SO WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE CANCELLED A FEW HOURS
EARLY...THOUGH WITH RADAR INDICATIONS OF SOME PATCHY SNOW
DEVELOPING ALONG EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY AREAS GOING FOR NOW. WHILE A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS FOR LATER TODAY INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THERE IS THE ISSUE OF SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATER
TONIGHT. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS SOME LOCALES IN THE LOWER AND
MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS IN LOWEST PARTS OF THE
VALLEY WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING FOR AT LEAST 2 TO 4
HOURS EARLY TUESDAY. BIGGEST ISSUE WITH THIS IS THAT MORE NORTHERN
AREAS ARE STILL EARLIER THAN THEIR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE
DATES...WHILE MORE SOUTHERLY ZONES ARE GENRALLY A LITTLE PAST
THOSE DATES. SO FOR NOW...AFTER POSING THIS ISSUE TO MY GRAVEYARD
PARTNER...IT WAS DECIDED TO GO FOR A FREEZE WATCH FOR THOSE
NORMALLY WARNED FOR FREEZE ZONES THAT ARE AT OR PAST THEIR NORMAL
LAST 28 AND OR 32 DEGREE DATES. WILL ONLY GO WITH FREEZE WATCH AND
NOT DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN HARD AND REGULAR FREEZE WATCH...PARTLY
BECAUSE DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE QUIETER WX AND A LOT MORE TIME TO HASH
OUT THE DETAILS AND INDEED THE EFFICACY OF WARNING ISSUANCES GIVEN
THAT SOME PLACES ARE PAST AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATES AND OTHERS
BEFORE THEIR DATES.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR LATER WED INTO THU LOOKS A LITTLE LESS
COLD AND WITH PRECIP PERHAPS NOT PENETRATING AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST
AS THE CURRENTLY DEPARTING SYSTEM. FINALLY...YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM...A MUCH WARMER ONE...STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO BRING SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT LITTLE SNOW
EXPECTED AS SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL OUTLOOK...CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A BASIC STORY THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK WITH SOME
DAILY DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM ARCTIC
CANADA ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE INTO
TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AS UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST COLLAPSES INTO A BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND OFF INTO LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
BY MIDWEEK WITH NEW MEXICO NEAR THE TROUGH BASE. TROUGH WILL DRIFT
EAST INTO TEXAS THURSDAY...AS BAGGY TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE TROPICAL
EAST PACIFIC AND WEAK INTERVENING RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTRODUCING BACKING BUT FAIRLY
MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD. BASIC SOUTHWEST FLOW DEAL ALOFT
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GRADUAL SHIFT OF TROUGH OVER
NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY. NEXT...AND MORE MUSCULAR...NORTH PACIFIC
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY MIDWEEK BOUND FOR AN
EASTBOUND TRIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

FOR TODAY...MUCH COLDER TODAY...WITH EASTERN PLAINS RUNNING 20 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST. SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS PARENT SYSTEM MOVES OFF
INTO TEXAS. SUBSTANTIAL BOOST IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE 30S
OVER THE EAST...WITH TEENS PCT COMMON OVER THE WEST. NORTHERLY
BREEZES STRONGEST IN THE MORNING NEAR THE TEXAS LINE WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS WITH
FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH RETURN SURFACE FLOW
IMPARTING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS.
WHIPLASH WARM UP WILL BRING TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY BACK TO WITHIN 10
DEGREES OF MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND TO NORMAL VALUES
OVER THE WEST. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...AND RAPID DROPS IN MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BACK TO THE
LOW TEENS PCT WILL SET UP AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER...BUT
CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOL CONDITIONS...AND A FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH HAINES INDICES REMAINING NEAR 3 AND 4...AND ONLY LOCALLY TO
5...WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH FOR NOW. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTS AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES WITH FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD ROUNDING OUT OVER NEW MEXICO
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS BROAD SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. SHOWER COVERAGE BUILDING UNDER THE OVERHEAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND OUT OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME RANGE CHANGING OVER TO
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS. WITH MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS PCT FOR ALL BUT THE
NORTHERN TIER...LOCALIZED WESTERLY BREEZES WILL SET UP LOCALIZED RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
GUSTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEST CANDIDATES FOR RAMPED UP FIRE DANGER.
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WOULD EDGE AWAY FROM A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
AS HAINES INDICES CLIMB BACK TOWARD 5 AND 6 OVER THE AREA WILL HAVE
TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. NO VENTILATION ISSUES...WITH FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WEST IMPROVING TO GOOD OVER THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLD PLUNGE RETURNING
TEMPERATURES TO THE COOLER FOR THURSDAY AS NORTHEAST SHOWERS TAPER
OFF...AND SPEEDY NORTHEAST BREEZES SET UP NEAR THE TEXAS STATE LINE.
WEAK RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SOUTHWEST OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY. PATTERN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
MID APRIL NORMALS...AS SHOWER COVERAGE WORKS NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND EXPANDING EASTWARD CROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BREEZY IN THE EAST LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HUMIDITIES REMAIN
ABOVE RED FLAG THRESHOLDS IN THE 20S AND 30S PCT INTO SATURDAY. VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION CONDITIONS ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SNOW WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHERE PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN
PEAKS. SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE FOUND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY REMAINING HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH A GAP/CANYON WIND ALSO POSSIBLE INTO KSAF AND KABQ WHERE
GUSTS COULD REACH 20-30KT BETWEEN 14/0400 TO 14/1000UTC. WINDS
WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ALSO WANING AND BURNING OFF TOWARD 14/1900UTC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  24  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  52  16  61  24 /   5   5   0   0
CUBA............................  49  19  62  29 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  54  15  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  47  16  60  26 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  51  18  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  53  21  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  67  23  71  30 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  45  17  55  23 /  10   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  29  60  38 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  23  57  33 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  18  60  26 /  20   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  33  12  47  24 /  20   5   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  11  52  22 /  30   5   0   0
TAOS............................  43  17  60  26 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  36  20  57  31 /  30   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  49  27  66  34 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  45  27  61  35 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  25  64  33 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  52  34  67  42 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  54  36  68  44 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  31  70  38 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  56  32  71  40 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  29  71  36 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  55  33  71  41 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  58  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  49  29  64  40 /  10   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  49  30  63  41 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  22  62  30 /  10   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  40  24  59  34 /  20   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  47  26  60  36 /   5   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  30  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  26  60  38 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  34  19  58  32 /  20   5   0   0
RATON...........................  40  19  63  30 /  30   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  38  20  65  31 /  20   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  23  61  33 /  20   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  38  24  65  38 /  20   5   0   0
ROY.............................  37  22  64  38 /  20   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  44  26  70  39 /  20   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  45  26  69  39 /  20   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  46  25  71  39 /  20   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  43  24  65  36 /  20   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  45  25  66  36 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  47  27  68  38 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  52  28  71  40 /   5   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  49  25  69  39 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  47  25  63  39 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ519-520-524-525-532>540.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 140528
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SNOW WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN
PLAINS WHERE PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
WILL PERSIST. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN
PEAKS. SOME RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE FOUND INTO THE EAST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY REMAINING HIGHER...GENERALLY IN THE MVFR TO VFR RANGE.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO 40 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH A GAP/CANYON WIND ALSO POSSIBLE INTO KSAF AND KABQ WHERE
GUSTS COULD REACH 20-30KT BETWEEN 14/0400 TO 14/1000UTC. WINDS
WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION ALSO WANING AND BURNING OFF TOWARD 14/1900UTC.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. STORM NUMBER
ONE IS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MAKING ITS INFLUENCE FELT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
NE NM. PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALL OF NE NM. THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE MONDAY. A BREAK
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TWO MORE STORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BACK DOOR FRONT SLAMS INTO
NE NM. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL ACCELERATE
S AND W TONIGHT. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SHORT DURATION BUT
INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HARDING COUNTY TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR RATON
RIDGE...JOHNSON MESA AND FAR NE PLAINS ZONES DUE TO CONCERN FOR
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT.

STORM WILL QUICKLY DEPART NM ON MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH
ONLY SOME BREEZES ACROSS THE E.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE ONLY A MINOR PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER IS NOW MORE POTENT FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND SOME DECENT
QPF IN THE NORTH LOOKING MORE LIKELY. A BREAK FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STORM...THIS ONE FROM THE WEST. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 101 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HUMIDIITES WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL IN ZONE 105...BUT AREAS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ON TRACK WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS... SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI AS OF 2 PM
WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT USHERING IN HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY N/NE WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT... AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALL BUT SOME AREAS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE
MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE RGV WESTWARD.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LESS WIND AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALSO EXPECTED...THOUGH
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER MAY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HOURS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN INTO THE GOOD TO VERY
GOOD CATEGORIES. MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TUESDAY TO VALUES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SOME BREEZES
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL. THOUGH
LOW HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...TEMPERATURES UP TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
HAINES INDICES GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 4 WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH ATTM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER IN
LINE TO THE ECMWF...THUS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS
MUCH AS WHAT WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR CLINES
CORNERS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SPOTTIER CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL WITH A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE
PLAINS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WETTING PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>532.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 140001
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
601 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

HIGHLY VARIABLE AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY FAVORING THE NORTHERN PART OF NEW
MEXICO WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE HURLING STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT WITH BLOWING DUST LOCALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITY. SNOW LEVELS ARE QUITE VARIABLE AS THE DUAL SEGMENT
FRONT OVERTAKES THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. SNOW WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN PLAINS WHERE MORE
PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO PLAGUE THE NORTHERN PEAKS. INTO
THE MID TO LATE EVENING WIND CONCERNS WILL BEGIN TO FOCUS MORE
WITH THE FRONT...STAYING GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ALSO INTO
THE CENTRAL PARTS BEYOND GAPS/CANYONS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE ABQ
AIRPORT WHERE AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...A LULL IN THE WINDS IS THEN EXPECTED BETWEEN 14/0400 TO
14/1000 WHEN THE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL ARRIVE.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. STORM NUMBER
ONE IS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MAKING ITS INFLUENCE FELT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
NE NM. PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALL OF NE NM. THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE MONDAY. A BREAK
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TWO MORE STORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BACK DOOR FRONT SLAMS INTO
NE NM. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL ACCELERATE
S AND W TONIGHT. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SHORT DURATION BUT
INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HARDING COUNTY TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR RATON
RIDGE...JOHNSON MESA AND FAR NE PLAINS ZONES DUE TO CONCERN FOR
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT.

STORM WILL QUICKLY DEPART NM ON MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH
ONLY SOME BREEZES ACROSS THE E.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE ONLY A MINOR PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER IS NOW MORE POTENT FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND SOME DECENT
QPF IN THE NORTH LOOKING MORE LIKELY. A BREAK FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STORM...THIS ONE FROM THE WEST. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 101 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HUMIDIITES WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL IN ZONE 105...BUT AREAS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ON TRACK WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS... SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI AS OF 2 PM
WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT USHERING IN HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY N/NE WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT... AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALL BUT SOME AREAS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE
MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE RGV WESTWARD.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LESS WIND AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALSO EXPECTED...THOUGH
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER MAY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HOURS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN INTO THE GOOD TO VERY
GOOD CATEGORIES. MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TUESDAY TO VALUES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SOME BREEZES
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL. THOUGH
LOW HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...TEMPERATURES UP TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
HAINES INDICES GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 4 WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH ATTM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER IN
LINE TO THE ECMWF...THUS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS
MUCH AS WHAT WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR CLINES
CORNERS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SPOTTIER CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL WITH A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE
PLAINS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WETTING PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105>109.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-505>508-519-521>523.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>531.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 132111
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. STORM NUMBER
ONE IS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND MAKING ITS INFLUENCE FELT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG
WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
NE NM. PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TONIGHT MAINLY
FROM THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALL OF NE NM. THE STORM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE MONDAY. A BREAK
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TWO MORE STORMS COULD IMPACT
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT FOR THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND TIME PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG WEATHER CHANGES ARE UNDERWAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM
REACHES THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND BACK DOOR FRONT SLAMS INTO
NE NM. THE FRONT HAS SLOWED DURING THE DAY...BUT WILL ACCELERATE
S AND W TONIGHT. RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES...STRONG NORTH WINDS
AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A SHORT DURATION BUT
INTENSE PERIOD OF SNOW TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND HARDING COUNTY TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING FOR RATON
RIDGE...JOHNSON MESA AND FAR NE PLAINS ZONES DUE TO CONCERN FOR
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE NIGHT.

STORM WILL QUICKLY DEPART NM ON MONDAY BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER WITH
ONLY SOME BREEZES ACROSS THE E.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN FORECAST TO BE ONLY A MINOR PLAYER
IN OUR WEATHER IS NOW MORE POTENT FOR THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME PERIOD. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT AND SOME DECENT
QPF IN THE NORTH LOOKING MORE LIKELY. A BREAK FRIDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER STORM...THIS ONE FROM THE WEST. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONE 101 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HUMIDIITES WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL IN ZONE 105...BUT AREAS BELOW 7500 FEET WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE AT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA THROUGH THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE RED FLAG WARNING IS ON TRACK WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS... SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES...AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI AS OF 2 PM
WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TONIGHT USHERING IN HIGHER
HUMIDITIES...GUSTY N/NE WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
EASTWARD TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS BORDER. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MEANWHILE...THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS WESTERN
NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT... AS WELL AS
COOLER TEMPERATURES. ALL BUT SOME AREAS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AND HARD FREEZES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NORTHERN MTNS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...WHILE
MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THE RGV WESTWARD.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE EASTERN AREAS WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. LESS WIND AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES ALSO EXPECTED...THOUGH
LOCATIONS ALONG THE ARIZONA BORDER MAY DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HOURS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DIP DOWN INTO THE GOOD TO VERY
GOOD CATEGORIES. MAINLY FAIR RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TUESDAY TO VALUES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND SOME BREEZES
DEVELOP IN THE AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AS WELL. THOUGH
LOW HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...TEMPERATURES UP TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND
HAINES INDICES GENERALLY AROUND 3 TO 4 WILL PRECLUDE A WATCH ATTM.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM ON WEDNESDAY AND SLIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS HAS COME CLOSER IN
LINE TO THE ECMWF...THUS THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS
MUCH AS WHAT WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NM
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM NEAR CLINES
CORNERS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. SPOTTIER CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL WITH A FEW HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN THE
PLAINS.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WETTING PRECIP MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NE NM WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KT BEHIND IT. ELSEWHERE...W WINDS HAVE INCREASED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS AFTN. GUSTS BTW 35-40KT LIKELY. AREAS OF
BLDU IS POSSIBLE. GUSTS MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ACROSS NW NM
WHERE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL
SLIDE FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM...SWITCHING WINDS ACROSS TO THE NW AND INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES. A FEW TS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO ANY TAF ATTM. BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
HOVER IN THE VCNTY OF KTCC MUCH OF THE DAY WHICH WILL MAKE WINDS
SQUIRRELLY. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY SLIDE DOWN THE REMAINDER OF
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES SO...RAIN AND SNOW WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT WITH IFR CIGS/VSBYS. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
AREAS OF BLSN. THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDER. MTS MAY BE
OBSCURED. PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY END BY 18Z MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  29  57  25  67 /  20   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  22  53  17  61 /  30   5   5   0
CUBA............................  25  50  20  62 /  20   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  24  55  16  65 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  24  48  19  59 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  27  52  19  63 /  10   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  30  54  23  64 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  32  68  24  71 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  20  46  17  55 /  40  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  44  29  59 /  40   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  30  39  23  56 /  40  20   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  23  46  18  60 /  60  20   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  19  35  14  47 /  70  20   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  37  11  52 /  80  30   5   0
TAOS............................  24  44  17  60 /  50  10   5   0
MORA............................  27  38  20  57 /  70  30   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  29  51  27  66 /  30   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  29  46  28  62 /  30  20   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  30  50  26  64 /  20   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  53  34  67 /  20   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  55  35  68 /  20   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  35  57  30  70 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  37  57  32  71 /  20   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  34  58  27  71 /  10   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  36  56  33  70 /  20   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  41  59  34  70 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  50  29  64 /  20  10   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  34  50  30  63 /  20  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  23  47  21  62 /  20  10   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  43  23  59 /  40  20   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  29  48  26  60 /  20   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  35  51  30  63 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  31  46  26  60 /  20   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  20  36  19  58 /  80  20   5   0
RATON...........................  23  42  19  63 /  70  30   5   0
SPRINGER........................  23  41  20  64 /  60  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  42  22  60 /  70  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  21  40  24  64 /  80  30   5   0
ROY.............................  23  40  22  64 /  60  20   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  44  27  70 /  50  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  29  45  26  69 /  30  20   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  46  25  71 /  40  20   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  43  24  65 /  30  20   5   0
PORTALES........................  30  45  25  67 /  30  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  27  68 /  30  10   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  40  52  28  71 /  10   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  36  49  25  68 /  20   5   0   0
ELK.............................  36  47  25  63 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ105>109.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-505>508-519-521>523.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>531.

&&

$$

40







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