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000
FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY











000
FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 020545
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEWPOINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 020545
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEWPOINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 012329
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLAT RIDGE WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 02/12Z THEN
WINDS ALF WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN AT 01/23Z WILL SAG SOUTH AND
WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY BETWEEN 02/08Z-12Z. DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR FAR NE NM TO SEE
THEM IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 012329
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLAT RIDGE WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 02/12Z THEN
WINDS ALF WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN AT 01/23Z WILL SAG SOUTH AND
WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY BETWEEN 02/08Z-12Z. DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR FAR NE NM TO SEE
THEM IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40







000
FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 011753 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 011753 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 011134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR KELP TODAY...VERY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NRN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS
WITH WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER NERN PLAINS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY












000
FXUS65 KABQ 010835
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  84  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  85  49  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  86  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  82  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  91  54  92  54 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  42  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  56  84  57 /   0   0   5   0
PECOS...........................  82  54  83  54 /   0   0   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  82  49 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  73  44  73  47 /   0   0   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  40  77  42 /   0   0   5   5
TAOS............................  84  45  85  46 /   0   0   5   0
MORA............................  82  49  81  51 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  90  55  90  54 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  85  56  86  56 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  55 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  64  92  64 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  61  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  92  62  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  95  63  96  63 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  88  57  89  58 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  49  88  50 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  56  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  86  51  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
RATON...........................  89  50  87  51 /   0   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  90  52  87  53 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  87  52  85  53 /   0   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  90  59  87  62 /   0   5   5   5
ROY.............................  89  56  85  58 /   0   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  95  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  64  91  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  62  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  97  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  98  63  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  98  64  95  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL......................... 101  66  98  67 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  92  62  91  61 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  87  61  87  59 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010835
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  84  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  85  49  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  86  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  82  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  91  54  92  54 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  42  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  56  84  57 /   0   0   5   0
PECOS...........................  82  54  83  54 /   0   0   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  82  49 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  73  44  73  47 /   0   0   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  40  77  42 /   0   0   5   5
TAOS............................  84  45  85  46 /   0   0   5   0
MORA............................  82  49  81  51 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  90  55  90  54 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  85  56  86  56 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  55 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  64  92  64 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  61  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  92  62  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  95  63  96  63 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  88  57  89  58 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  49  88  50 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  56  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  86  51  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
RATON...........................  89  50  87  51 /   0   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  90  52  87  53 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  87  52  85  53 /   0   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  90  59  87  62 /   0   5   5   5
ROY.............................  89  56  85  58 /   0   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  95  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  64  91  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  62  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  97  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  98  63  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  98  64  95  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL......................... 101  66  98  67 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  92  62  91  61 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  87  61  87  59 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 010517
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1117 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 010517
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1117 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 312331
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THEN. BREEZES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...AND
OTHERWISE JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 312331
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
531 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

JUST A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THEN. BREEZES WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...AND
OTHERWISE JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 312058
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  90  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  45  84  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  50  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  87  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  47  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  51  87  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  55  93  54  92 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  41  80  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  55  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  75  43  73 /   0   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  38  79  39  77 /   0   5   0   5
TAOS............................  48  84  45  86 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  52  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  89  54  89 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  92  64  92 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  93  61  93 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  91  58  92 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  63  95  63  96 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  88  56  89 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  58  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  88  48  88 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  50  87  50  83 /   0   5   5   5
RATON...........................  50  90  49  87 /   0   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  52  91  52  88 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  60  91  59  87 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  57  89  56  85 /   0   0   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  95  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  94  63  91 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  99  62  94 /   0   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  63  98  62  95 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  98  64  95 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64 102  65  98 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   5
ELK.............................  60  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 312058
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  56  90  54  92 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  45  84  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  50  85  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  87  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  47  83  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  51  87  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  55  93  54  92 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  41  80  41  82 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  84  56  83 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  55  82  53  82 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  75  43  73 /   0   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  38  79  39  77 /   0   5   0   5
TAOS............................  48  84  45  86 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  52  82  49  81 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  55  91 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  86 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  89  54  89 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  92  64  92 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  93  61  93 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  93  62  93 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  91  58  92 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  92  62  92 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  63  95  63  96 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  88  56  89 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  58  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  49  88  48  88 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  87  56  86 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  90  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  50  87  50  83 /   0   5   5   5
RATON...........................  50  90  49  87 /   0   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  52  91  52  88 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  60  91  59  87 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  57  89  56  85 /   0   0   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  95  61  90 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  94  63  91 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  99  62  94 /   0   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  97  61  93 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  63  98  62  95 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  98  64  95 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64 102  65  98 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  92 /   0   0   0   5
ELK.............................  60  87  60  87 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311749 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 311749 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS WITH SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 KTS. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BECOMING
WEST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 311119 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM
WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS AT FMN...LVS...AND TCC. ALL WIND
SPEEDS TAPERING OFF AFTER 02Z SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43









000
FXUS65 KABQ 311119 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH DEEPENING SURFACE TROUGH FROM
WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON GUSTS AT FMN...LVS...AND TCC. ALL WIND
SPEEDS TAPERING OFF AFTER 02Z SUNSET THIS EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 310929
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ERODING BENEATH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT COMMON IN MANY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE WILL BE ABSENT OVER MOST OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EAST OF A KROW TO
KTCC LINE WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A STRAY STORM
OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  56  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  85  45  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  87  48  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  84  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  88  51  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  86  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  93  55  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  82  41  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  86  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  83  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  75  44  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  80  38  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  86  48  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  83  51  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  92  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  87  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  90  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  62  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  93  64  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  95  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  62  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  98  63  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  90  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  51  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  86  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  90  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  92  52  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  93  53  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  55  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  97  61  91  59 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  93  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  98  63  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  96  64  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  63  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  98  63  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  99  64  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  64  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL......................... 102  66 102  65 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  94  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  90  61  87  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310929
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MORE WIND TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THAN WE HAVE SEEN FOR AT LEST A MONTH OR TWO. THIS THE RESULT OF
THE WESTERLIES ALOFT DROPPING SOUTH FAR ENOUGH THAT...WITH THE
HELP OF FULL SUNSHINE...VERTICAL MIXING WILL HELP TRANSPORT A
DECENT PORTION OF THE STRONGER SPEEDS TO THE SURFACE. NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTED. WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LOOKING TO DROP SLOWLY AND TENTATIVELY INTO
NE NEW MEXICO BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT
QUITE AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS EAST NEW MEXICO AS WAS THOUGHT
WOULD BE THE CASE TWO OR THREE FORECAST MODEL RUNS AGO. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER SOUTH NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
MAINTAINING A PRETTY STRONG WESTWARD RIDGE EXTENSION FOR AWHILE...
EVENTUALLY IT WILL ALLOW SOME MOISTURE NORTH INTO WEST AND NORTH
NEW MEXICO BY AT LEAST THURSDAY OR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND HEAT WILL BE THE TWO MAIN WX ISSUES TODAY ACROSS THE
FCST AREA...NE AND E CENTRAL SECTIONS MORE SO FOR THE WIND AND E
CENTRAL TO SE SECTIONS MORE FOR THE HEAT. THE FORMER WILL BE
DRIVEN BY A TEMPORARY SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE WESTERLIES ALOFT WITH
VERTICAL MIXING STRONG ENOUGH TO COAX DOWN TO THE SURFACE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF THAT MOMENTUM LATE THIS MORN INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVE.
THE AFTN HEAT WILL SEND THERMOMETERS APPROACHING RECORD HIGHS IN
SOME LOCALES MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS LOOKING AT A RAIN FREE FCST TODAY...AS
WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN EARLY MON AND MON NIGHT...BUT OVERALL AFTN TEMPS
TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN
THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT EAST TO WEST RIDGE IN
THE VICINITY. TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE
THE WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT HAVING CLEARED THE NE THIRD TO...LESS
LIKELY...HALF OF THE STATE. AS EARLY AS WED OR THU WE COULD SEE SOME
MOISTURE EASING INTO WEST OF NM. SO HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN
FOR WESTERN AND SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MORE SO THU
THOUGH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COVERAGE SHOULD SOMEWHAT
IRREGULARLY INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THU OR FRI INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT TENUOUS AS TO
EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY DUE TO RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS
IN FCST MODEL CONSISTENCY OF LATE. SO STAY TUNED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FROM THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK...FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING BASE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHEAR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN FAIRLY WEAK NORTHWEST
FLOW...AS SPEEDIER JET FLOW SETS UP NORTH OF THE STATE. NEXT TIGHT
SHORTWAVE TAKING SHAPE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE INLAND
NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHEAR RAPIDLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES THROUGH MIDWEEK. CHIEF IMPACT FOR THE WEST WILL BE
DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY MIDWEEK...AS RIDGE CORE SHIFTS
EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH...AND PUTS SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH ATTENDANT
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL HAVE A SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING TASK TO REACH NEW
MEXICO INTACT...AS RIDGE CORE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE WEST.
FORECASTS ALL SHOWING SOME TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH SLOW DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
BROADER EAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POSSIBLE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION AS FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
TO SOUTHWEST IN PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY CANADA TO CALIFORNIA
TROUGH AS NEXT WEEKEND WINDS UP AND THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY.

FOR TODAY...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AS
SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS PCT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN IN DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EAST...BUT GREENISH FUELS WILL MITIGATE THE FIRE DANGER AND WILL
HOLD OFF THEREBY ON ANY RED FLAGS. NO SHOWERS TODAY WITH NO
VENTILATION ISSUES. FAIR HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...CLOSER TO
GOOD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

FOR LABOR DAY...TRAILING BLIP IN BROADER TROUGH WILL CLIP NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY...AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. SHIFT IN SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE SOME EASTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH SOME COOLER AIR...AS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE ENDS UP WITH A DEGREE OR TWO SHAVED OFF THE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE EAST...WITH TEMPS MUCH CLOSER
TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. ANOTHER DRY DAY FREE OF SHOWERS...AS
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WORK BROADLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS PCT.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION...WITH VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE WORKS BACK
OVER NEW MEXICO FROM THE EAST...AND SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT OVER WEST
TEXAS CIRCULATES A LITTLE MORE WESTBOUND COOL AIR INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL RUN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS OVER THE
EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST. COOLING WILL HELP BOOST
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S PCT WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS. VENTILATION WILL TAKE A DOWN
TICK...WITH GOOD TO VERY GOOD OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...AND
GENERALLY FAIR TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWER COVERAGE CREEPING INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HIGH COUNTRY WEDNESDAY WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY...AS MOISTURE WORKING OUT OF CHIHUAHUA AND
SONORA SWINGS NORTHWARD INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE WILL BE HELPED BY GENERALLY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S PCT BY
FRIDAY IN A WEAK COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY GOOD TO
VERY GOOD VENTILATION CONDITIONS EACH DAY. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES EACH OVERNIGHT.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ERODING BENEATH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT COMMON IN MANY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE WILL BE ABSENT OVER MOST OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EAST OF A KROW TO
KTCC LINE WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A STRAY STORM
OR TWO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  56  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  85  45  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  50  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  87  48  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  84  47  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  88  51  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  86  51  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  93  55  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  82  41  80  41 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  86  55  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  83  54  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  48  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  75  44  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  80  38  78  39 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  86  48  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  83  51  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  92  54  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  87  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  90  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  62  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  93  64  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  95  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  94  62  93  62 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  94  58  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  62  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  98  63  95  63 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  90  57  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  90  57  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  89  51  88  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  87  56  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  89  58  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  86  57  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  90  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  92  52  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  93  53  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  88  55  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  97  61  91  59 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  93  57  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  98  63  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  96  64  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI....................... 102  63  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  98  63  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  99  64  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  99  64  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL......................... 102  66 102  65 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  94  62  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  90  61  87  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 310524
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ERODING BENEATH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT COMMON IN MANY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE WILL BE ABSENT OVER MOST OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EAST OF A KROW TO
KTCC LINE WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A STRAY STORM
OR TWO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SMALL SHOWERS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING
INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED
SUCCESS. THE ONE THING WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS SHARP INCREASE IN THE
WIND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER. NO LIGHTNING YET IN
THE STATE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...FIGURING CONVECTION DONE
BY 9 PM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL KICK WITH
THE WIND MACHINE FOR A DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS A DRY FORECAST
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE
BUT RATHER A MODEST ADVANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED WETTING RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OFF BAJA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.

ZONAL FLOW TO TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO COLORADO BY MID
DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP
STEADILY BY MID DAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOIST FUELS...LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER AND HAINES VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 4...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DESPITE THE FACT THAT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO RANGE
FROM FAIR TO GOOD.

TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE EACH DAY.  A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATE DECREASES A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A
MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MODELS DONT AGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING WETTING RAIN. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 310524
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ERODING BENEATH. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30
KT COMMON IN MANY LOCATIONS. MOISTURE WILL BE ABSENT OVER MOST OF
THE STATE. THIS WILL INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EAST OF A KROW TO
KTCC LINE WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO A STRAY STORM
OR TWO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SMALL SHOWERS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING
INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED
SUCCESS. THE ONE THING WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS SHARP INCREASE IN THE
WIND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER. NO LIGHTNING YET IN
THE STATE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...FIGURING CONVECTION DONE
BY 9 PM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL KICK WITH
THE WIND MACHINE FOR A DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS A DRY FORECAST
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE
BUT RATHER A MODEST ADVANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED WETTING RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OFF BAJA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.

ZONAL FLOW TO TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO COLORADO BY MID
DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP
STEADILY BY MID DAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOIST FUELS...LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER AND HAINES VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 4...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DESPITE THE FACT THAT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO RANGE
FROM FAIR TO GOOD.

TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE EACH DAY.  A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATE DECREASES A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A
MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MODELS DONT AGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING WETTING RAIN. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 302335
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER HAS PREVAILED TODAY OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STRUGGLING TO TAKE SHAPE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED. STILL...SOME
ERRATIC AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
BENEATH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AS THE
CELLS DRIFT EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE AFTER DARK...RE-STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SMALL SHOWERS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING
INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED
SUCCESS. THE ONE THING WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS SHARP INCREASE IN THE
WIND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER. NO LIGHTNING YET IN
THE STATE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...FIGURING CONVECTION DONE
BY 9 PM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL KICK WITH
THE WIND MACHINE FOR A DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS A DRY FORECAST
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE
BUT RATHER A MODEST ADVANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED WETTING RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OFF BAJA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.

ZONAL FLOW TO TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO COLORADO BY MID
DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP
STEADILY BY MID DAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOIST FUELS...LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER AND HAINES VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 4...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DESPITE THE FACT THAT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO RANGE
FROM FAIR TO GOOD.

TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE EACH DAY.  A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATE DECREASES A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A
MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MODELS DONT AGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING WETTING RAIN. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...
CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
DEVELOPED... MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PICK UP IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET CENTRAL
AND WEST BUT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RAMP UP MID MORNING
SUNDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 302335
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER HAS PREVAILED TODAY OVER MOST OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STRUGGLING TO TAKE SHAPE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY WIDESPREAD OR ORGANIZED. STILL...SOME
ERRATIC AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
BENEATH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AS THE
CELLS DRIFT EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
BREEZES WILL SUBSIDE AFTER DARK...RE-STRENGTHENING LATE SUNDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 25 TO 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN
SOME LOCATIONS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...254 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SMALL SHOWERS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING
INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED
SUCCESS. THE ONE THING WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS SHARP INCREASE IN THE
WIND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER. NO LIGHTNING YET IN
THE STATE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...FIGURING CONVECTION DONE
BY 9 PM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL KICK WITH
THE WIND MACHINE FOR A DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS A DRY FORECAST
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE
BUT RATHER A MODEST ADVANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED WETTING RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OFF BAJA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.

ZONAL FLOW TO TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO COLORADO BY MID
DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP
STEADILY BY MID DAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOIST FUELS...LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER AND HAINES VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 4...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DESPITE THE FACT THAT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO RANGE
FROM FAIR TO GOOD.

TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE EACH DAY.  A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATE DECREASES A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A
MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MODELS DONT AGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING WETTING RAIN. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...
CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
DEVELOPED... MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PICK UP IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET CENTRAL
AND WEST BUT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RAMP UP MID MORNING
SUNDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 302054
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SMALL SHOWERS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING
INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED
SUCCESS. THE ONE THING WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS SHARP INCREASE IN THE
WIND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER. NO LIGHTNING YET IN
THE STATE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...FIGURING CONVECTION DONE
BY 9 PM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL KICK WITH
THE WIND MACHINE FOR A DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS A DRY FORECAST
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE
BUT RATHER A MODEST ADVANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED WETTING RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OFF BAJA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.

ZONAL FLOW TO TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO COLORADO BY MID
DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP
STEADILY BY MID DAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOIST FUELS...LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER AND HAINES VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 4...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DESPITE THE FACT THAT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO RANGE
FROM FAIR TO GOOD.

TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE EACH DAY.  A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATE DECREASES A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A
MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MODELS DONT AGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING WETTING RAIN. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...
CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
DEVELOPED... MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PICK UP IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET CENTRAL
AND WEST BUT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RAMP UP MID MORNING
SUNDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  91  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  45  84  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  48  86  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  51  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  52  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  56  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  81  41  79 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  85  55  82 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  54  83  54  80 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  81  48  80 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  42  74  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  79  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
TAOS............................  48  84  48  82 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  52  83  51  81 /  10   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  85  56  84 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  88  54  88 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  89  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  91  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  93  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  63  97  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  58  89  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  87  56  85 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  90  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  56  85  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  54  88  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
RATON...........................  50  91  52  87 /  10   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  52  92  53  89 /  10   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  88  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  61  97  60  90 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  55  92  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  63  96  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  61  95  64  92 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  64 100  63  97 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  61  97  63  96 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  62  98  64  98 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  97  64  97 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  66 102  66 101 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  60  94  62  91 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  59  89  61  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/05







000
FXUS65 KABQ 302054
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
254 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SMALL SHOWERS HAVING A HARD TIME DEVELOPING
INTO ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL TRY AND SLIP
INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIMITED
SUCCESS. THE ONE THING WE WILL EXPERIENCE IS SHARP INCREASE IN THE
WIND ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NEAR THE TX BORDER. NO LIGHTNING YET IN
THE STATE. WILL CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL AREAS FOR EARLY THIS EVENING...FIGURING CONVECTION DONE
BY 9 PM.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH GOING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WILL KICK WITH
THE WIND MACHINE FOR A DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I 40.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AND APPROACH RECORD
HIGHS IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL SCOUR OUT THE
REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE EAST...THUS A DRY FORECAST
ON TAP FOR SUNDAY...AS WELL AS LABOR DAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIP INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF COOLING FOR MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL.

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD OVER NM FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THEN SHIFT EAST LATER IN THE WEEK. TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN DRY AND QUITE WARM...THIS DESPITE ANOTHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT INTO THE NORTHEAST. BY WEDNESDAY WE COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF NM. WE WILL HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG SURGE OF MOISTURE
BUT RATHER A MODEST ADVANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE STATE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WARM...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. A PATTERN CHANGE MID TO LATE WEEK COULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIMITED WETTING RAIN MOSTLY ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NEAR ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AT THIS TIME WITH
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS CENTERED OFF BAJA AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER...SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RELAX AFTER SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.

ZONAL FLOW TO TIGHTEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NOSING INTO COLORADO BY MID
DAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW IN EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO AND TEMPERATURES WARM A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
EAST. BREEZY TO WINDY WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP
STEADILY BY MID DAY AS RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND NORTHEAST PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH MOIST FUELS...LOW TO MODERATE FIRE DANGER AND HAINES VALUES
GENERALLY AROUND 4...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED DESPITE THE FACT THAT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OF RH AND WIND
WILL BE MET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO RANGE
FROM FAIR TO GOOD.

TEMPERATURES COOL A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AND MOST AREAS ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS DECREASE EACH DAY.  A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS BY TUESDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST AND HAINES VALUES COULD
REACH 6 ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATE DECREASES A BIT
EACH DAY...BUT VALUES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST LOCATIONS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. THE
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER REMAINS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN COULD SUPPORT A
MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.  MODELS DONT AGREE ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THE ECMWF MORE
OPTIMISTIC REGARDING WETTING RAIN. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY A STEADY
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LIMITED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL INCREASES
WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY. 05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...
CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
DEVELOPED... MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO PICK UP IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET CENTRAL
AND WEST BUT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND
EASTERN PLAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RAMP UP MID MORNING
SUNDAY BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z. 05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  91  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  45  84  45  83 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  50  86  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  48  86  48  85 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  83  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  51  86  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  52  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  56  92  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  81  41  79 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  85  55  82 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  54  83  54  80 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  81  48  80 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  42  74  44  73 /  10   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  79  38  77 /  10   0   0   0
TAOS............................  48  84  48  82 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  52  83  51  81 /  10   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  85  56  84 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  88  54  88 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  89  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  91  62  92 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  93  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  63  97  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  89  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  58  89  57  86 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  87  56  85 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  90  62  89 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  56  85  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  54  88  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
RATON...........................  50  91  52  87 /  10   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  52  92  53  89 /  10   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  88  55  86 /  10   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  61  97  60  90 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  55  92  57  87 /  10   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  63  96  63  93 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  61  95  64  92 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  64 100  63  97 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  61  97  63  96 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  62  98  64  98 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  97  64  97 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  66 102  66 101 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  60  94  62  91 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  59  89  61  86 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/05






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301757 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...
CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
DEVELOPED... MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PICK UP IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET CENTRAL AND
WEST BUT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RAMP UP MID MORNING SUNDAY
BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD OF
THE STATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST 2 SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
FREE DAYS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW AND A BIT IRREGULAR RAMP UP IN MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EASES AT LEAST A LITTLE TO THE EAST...BUT STILL FAIRLY STRONGLY
RIDGES WESTWARD NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS
WESTWARD EXTENSION IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN KEEPING THE
MOISTURE FROM SURGING NORTHWARD MORE VIGOROUSLY. STILL WE CAN
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO...AT TIMES...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
LATTER HALF OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR SO OF THE STATE MAY BE LARGELY LEFT OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NE VERY EARLY THIS MORN.
SHOULD MOSTLY OR TOTALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORN AS THE MID
LEVELS WARM SOME AFTER SUNRISE. BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN LOWER 48 TODAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD FORCE SFC WINDS UP
SOME TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND NE. AS TROUGH
CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN...WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH HALF OR SO OF NM...WITH EVEN LOW GRADE
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE. TEMPS WILL HEAD UP A
LITTLE MORE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS...THE
MOST SO ACROSS THE EAST PLAINS.

STRONGLY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH SETTING UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA. AFTN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
MODERATELY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BUT ECMWF STILL SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE PLAINS...WEAKENING SOME AS IT
PROGRESSES THOUGH. THE GFS MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.

BETWEEN TUE AND FRI...DEPENDING ON THE MID TO LONGER RANGE MODEL
OF CHOICE...SOME BETTER MOISTURE ATTEMPTS A NORTHWARD PUSH...THOUGH
IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO CURVE AROUND THE STUBBORN
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH. MEANWHILE LATE WEEK AN UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SE OVER THE WEST COAST. OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF THE MORE BULLISH FAVORING PRECIP.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE CENTERED UP ON THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AS QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EN ROUTE TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS NEXT INBOUND WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WAVE WILL DIG TO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHEARING EASTWARD IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ONLY A QUICK CLIP OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. REBUILDING
RIDGE WILL CENTER UP ON NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH RIDGE
CORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE CORE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND
REACH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...A LITTLE WARMER TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...AND SPILLING OUT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR ANY BUT ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS IN TURN. LOCAL SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...AND FINALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE EL PASO AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT TODAY...DRIEST IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES TONIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES.

FOR SUNDAY...PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SCRAPE EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TROUGH NOW LYING FROM THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FINALLY ON TO THE
WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL SUPPORT SOME UP TICKS IN SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AXIS. CONTINUED
DRYING WILL BRING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS PCT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GUSTS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GREEN FUELS AND REDUCED FIRE DANGER WILL
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES THIS ROUND. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WITH NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

FOR MONDAY...COOLER AIR SWINGING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW PCT BOOST TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES FOR THE DAY. COLDER PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST...AS SURFACE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY OVER THE EAST COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUED FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK COOLING TREND WITH STEADY
BOOSTS IN HUMIDITIES THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGE CORE BUILDS BACK IN
OVER NEW MEXICO...AND SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO CHIHUAHUA. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. DEGRADED VENTILATION TUESDAY
IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD BY THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED HIGH
COUNTRY SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WITH
EXPANSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 301757 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH PERIOD. HOWEVER...
CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. ONCE
DEVELOPED... MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITES. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PICK UP IN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET CENTRAL AND
WEST BUT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND EASTERN
PLAINS. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS RAMP UP MID MORNING SUNDAY
BECOMING BREEZY TO WINDY MOST LOCATIONS BY 18Z.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT SAT AUG 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIET PATTERN TO CONTINUE TODAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER TO THIRD OF
THE STATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST 2 SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
FREE DAYS. BETWEEN TUESDAY AND FRIDAY FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A
SLOW AND A BIT IRREGULAR RAMP UP IN MOISTURE AS HIGH PRESSURE
EASES AT LEAST A LITTLE TO THE EAST...BUT STILL FAIRLY STRONGLY
RIDGES WESTWARD NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER. THIS
WESTWARD EXTENSION IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IN KEEPING THE
MOISTURE FROM SURGING NORTHWARD MORE VIGOROUSLY. STILL WE CAN
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED TO...AT TIMES...SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
LATTER HALF OF WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH SOUTHEAST THIRD
OR SO OF THE STATE MAY BE LARGELY LEFT OUT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR NE VERY EARLY THIS MORN.
SHOULD MOSTLY OR TOTALLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORN AS THE MID
LEVELS WARM SOME AFTER SUNRISE. BROAD FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN LOWER 48 TODAY. THIS COMBINED
WITH A STRENGTHENING LEE SIDE TROUGH SHOULD FORCE SFC WINDS UP
SOME TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E CENTRAL AND NE. AS TROUGH
CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUN...WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH HALF OR SO OF NM...WITH EVEN LOW GRADE
WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NE. TEMPS WILL HEAD UP A
LITTLE MORE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS...THE
MOST SO ACROSS THE EAST PLAINS.

STRONGLY EAST TO WEST ORIENTED UPPER HIGH SETTING UP EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD KEEP CONVECTION AT BAY AS DRY WESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVER THE FCST AREA. AFTN TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO
MODERATELY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. BUT ECMWF STILL SHOWING A BACK
DOOR FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THRU THE PLAINS...WEAKENING SOME AS IT
PROGRESSES THOUGH. THE GFS MUCH LESS BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.

BETWEEN TUE AND FRI...DEPENDING ON THE MID TO LONGER RANGE MODEL
OF CHOICE...SOME BETTER MOISTURE ATTEMPTS A NORTHWARD PUSH...THOUGH
IT STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL HAVE TO CURVE AROUND THE STUBBORN
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER HIGH. MEANWHILE LATE WEEK AN UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY DROPS SE OVER THE WEST COAST. OVERALL IT STILL LOOKS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF THE MORE BULLISH FAVORING PRECIP.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE CENTERED UP ON THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST AS QUICK BLIP SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EN ROUTE TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS NEXT INBOUND WAVE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WAVE WILL DIG TO THE FOUR CORNERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE SHEARING EASTWARD IMMEDIATELY INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH ONLY A QUICK CLIP OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. REBUILDING
RIDGE WILL CENTER UP ON NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS TUESDAY...WITH RIDGE
CORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE CORE WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST AND
REACH TEXAS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR TODAY...A LITTLE WARMER TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOSTLY
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST...AND SPILLING OUT OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS...AND LITTLE PROSPECT FOR ANY BUT ISOLATED
WETTING RAINS IN TURN. LOCAL SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SET UP OVER THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN VICINITY OF SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO...AND FINALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE EL PASO AREA. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT TODAY...DRIEST IN THE NORTHWEST WITH
FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES TONIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES.

FOR SUNDAY...PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORTWAVE ARRIVING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL SCRAPE EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TROUGH NOW LYING FROM THE NEBRASKA SAND HILLS
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FINALLY ON TO THE
WEST TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL SUPPORT SOME UP TICKS IN SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE EAST IN PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH AXIS. CONTINUED
DRYING WILL BRING MOST SPOTS DOWN INTO THE TEENS PCT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND GUSTS WITH LOW HUMIDITIES WILL SET UP ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GREEN FUELS AND REDUCED FIRE DANGER WILL
PRECLUDE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES THIS ROUND. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WITH NO VENTILATION ISSUES.

FOR MONDAY...COOLER AIR SWINGING IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WITH A FEW PCT BOOST TO MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES FOR THE DAY. COLDER PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAKE
LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST...AS SURFACE LOW SETS UP OVER THE
CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE IN AN OTHERWISE WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. REDUCED WIND SPEEDS MONDAY OVER THE EAST COMPARED TO
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION
CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUED FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT...BEST IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK COOLING TREND WITH STEADY
BOOSTS IN HUMIDITIES THROUGH THURSDAY AS RIDGE CORE BUILDS BACK IN
OVER NEW MEXICO...AND SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND INTO CHIHUAHUA. SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BUT HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. DEGRADED VENTILATION TUESDAY
IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD BY THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED HIGH
COUNTRY SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY WITH MODEST INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...WITH
EXPANSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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