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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220355 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
955 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY TO
REFLECT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE BASED ON SATELLITE AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. A WELL DEFINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW WHILE A DEEP TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO. EXPECTING
THIS TO BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTH
WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ABOUT
4 AM AND NOON. QPF AMOUNTS ARE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDESPREAD 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR
CENTRAL NM. SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS 1
INCH OR MORE IN FAVORED AREAS OF LIFT. NO REAL FLOODING ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A BENEFICIAL SOAKING
RAINFALL EVENT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THE NEXT 24 HRS. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST OVER AZ IS DRAGGING
A DEEP FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTH INTO NM. SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ARE BREAKING OUT WEST OF THE CONT DVD AND OVER FAR
SOUTHERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EXPECTED
TO MERGE INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER FROM SW TO NE AND APPROACH 040
AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS FROM KABQ WEST TO KGUP SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS NEAR
6SM...AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS. AREA OF RAIN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS EAST THRU 20Z...THEN REDEVELOP INTO SCATTERED STORMS BY
MID TO LATE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT FRIDAY. A DRIER
AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MOISTURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH LESS...IF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER NOW JUST SOUTH OF NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NEWD. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL PLUME OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PEEL OFF OF CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOWELL. AND
INTO THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE FOR NM WILL BE FROM CHIHUAHUA AS THE MID- LEVEL SLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH INCREASES.

NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH TO WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SLWY WINDS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST INTO THE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS AREA LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MOVES OVER NM AHEAD OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NEWD. MODELS INDICATING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM NEAR DUSTY NORTH TO DULCE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 35KT WEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL FORGO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS FLOW NEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
AND NOT CROSS BARRIER WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
TERRAIN.

QUITE THE CONTRAST EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
A SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SEEP NORTHWARD MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY THANKS IN
PART TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW AS GFS AND ECMWF
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE THERE
JUST YET. GFS IS THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWARD FLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WESTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW SPOTTY BUT LIMITED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...EXPECT BREEZY GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT LEAST 10 TO
12 DEGREES AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE EXTREME EAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BECAUSE OF LEE TROUGHING
BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS...POSSIBLY TO WINDY CATEGORIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AND
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO FOCUSED LIFT AND SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCE HOWEVER.

MODELS DIFFERENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR MORNING SOLUTIONS.
THEY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND IT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIMICS YESTERDAY EVENING/S ECMWF.
THE SLOWER/DEEPER PROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH MEANS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
MIDWEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE MODELS...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN THE RUN.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 220355 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
955 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH NOON FRIDAY TO
REFLECT SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING CONFIDENCE BASED ON SATELLITE AND
LATEST MODEL RUNS. A WELL DEFINED AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH THE UPPER LOW WHILE A DEEP TAP OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO. EXPECTING
THIS TO BE A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EVENT WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER OR TWO. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR RAIN LOOKS TO SHIFT NORTH
WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN BETWEEN ABOUT
4 AM AND NOON. QPF AMOUNTS ARE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST
HOWEVER LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WIDESPREAD 0.25 TO 0.75 FOR
CENTRAL NM. SOME HIGH TERRAIN AREAS MAY PICK UP AS MUCH AS 1
INCH OR MORE IN FAVORED AREAS OF LIFT. NO REAL FLOODING ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED AS THIS SHOULD BE MORE OF A BENEFICIAL SOAKING
RAINFALL EVENT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...547 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THE NEXT 24 HRS. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST OVER AZ IS DRAGGING
A DEEP FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTH INTO NM. SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ARE BREAKING OUT WEST OF THE CONT DVD AND OVER FAR
SOUTHERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EXPECTED
TO MERGE INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER FROM SW TO NE AND APPROACH 040
AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS FROM KABQ WEST TO KGUP SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS NEAR
6SM...AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS. AREA OF RAIN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS EAST THRU 20Z...THEN REDEVELOP INTO SCATTERED STORMS BY
MID TO LATE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT FRIDAY. A DRIER
AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MOISTURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH LESS...IF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER NOW JUST SOUTH OF NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NEWD. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL PLUME OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PEEL OFF OF CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOWELL. AND
INTO THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE FOR NM WILL BE FROM CHIHUAHUA AS THE MID- LEVEL SLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH INCREASES.

NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH TO WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SLWY WINDS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST INTO THE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS AREA LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MOVES OVER NM AHEAD OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NEWD. MODELS INDICATING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM NEAR DUSTY NORTH TO DULCE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 35KT WEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL FORGO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS FLOW NEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
AND NOT CROSS BARRIER WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
TERRAIN.

QUITE THE CONTRAST EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
A SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SEEP NORTHWARD MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY THANKS IN
PART TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW AS GFS AND ECMWF
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE THERE
JUST YET. GFS IS THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWARD FLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WESTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW SPOTTY BUT LIMITED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...EXPECT BREEZY GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT LEAST 10 TO
12 DEGREES AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE EXTREME EAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BECAUSE OF LEE TROUGHING
BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS...POSSIBLY TO WINDY CATEGORIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AND
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO FOCUSED LIFT AND SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCE HOWEVER.

MODELS DIFFERENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR MORNING SOLUTIONS.
THEY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND IT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIMICS YESTERDAY EVENING/S ECMWF.
THE SLOWER/DEEPER PROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH MEANS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
MIDWEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE MODELS...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN THE RUN.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 212347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THE NEXT 24 HRS. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST OVER AZ IS DRAGGING
A DEEP FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTH INTO NM. SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ARE BREAKING OUT WEST OF THE CONT DVD AND OVER FAR
SOUTHERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EXPECTED
TO MERGE INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER FROM SW TO NE AND APPROACH 040
AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS FROM KABQ WEST TO KGUP SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS NEAR
6SM...AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS. AREA OF RAIN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS EAST THRU 20Z...THEN REDEVELOP INTO SCATTERED STORMS BY
MID TO LATE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT FRIDAY. A DRIER
AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MOISTURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH LESS...IF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER NOW JUST SOUTH OF NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NEWD. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL PLUME OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PEEL OFF OF CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOWELL. AND
INTO THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE FOR NM WILL BE FROM CHIHUAHUA AS THE MID- LEVEL SLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH INCREASES.

NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH TO WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SLWY WINDS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST INTO THE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS AREA LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MOVES OVER NM AHEAD OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NEWD. MODELS INDICATING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM NEAR DUSTY NORTH TO DULCE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 35KT WEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL FORGO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS FLOW NEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
AND NOT CROSS BARRIER WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
TERRAIN.

QUITE THE CONTRAST EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
A SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SEEP NORTHWARD MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY THANKS IN
PART TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW AS GFS AND ECMWF
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE THERE
JUST YET. GFS IS THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWARD FLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WESTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW SPOTTY BUT LIMITED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...EXPECT BREEZY GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT LEAST 10 TO
12 DEGREES AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE EXTREME EAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BECAUSE OF LEE TROUGHING
BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS...POSSIBLY TO WINDY CATEGORIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AND
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO FOCUSED LIFT AND SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCE HOWEVER.

MODELS DIFFERENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR MORNING SOLUTIONS.
THEY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND IT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIMICS YESTERDAY EVENING/S ECMWF.
THE SLOWER/DEEPER PROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH MEANS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
MIDWEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE MODELS...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN THE RUN.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 212347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THE NEXT 24 HRS. A
WELL DEFINED UPPER WAVE SLIDING SLOWLY EAST OVER AZ IS DRAGGING
A DEEP FETCH OF MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW NORTH INTO NM. SHOWERS AND
A FEW STORMS ARE BREAKING OUT WEST OF THE CONT DVD AND OVER FAR
SOUTHERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND EXPECTED
TO MERGE INTO A LARGE AREA OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUD DECKS WILL LOWER FROM SW TO NE AND APPROACH 040
AROUND SUNRISE IN AREAS FROM KABQ WEST TO KGUP SOUTHWARD. THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN...OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS NEAR
6SM...AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS. AREA OF RAIN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
SHIFTS EAST THRU 20Z...THEN REDEVELOP INTO SCATTERED STORMS BY
MID TO LATE DAY. THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT CAN DEVELOP
BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOUD SHIELD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...342 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT FRIDAY. A DRIER
AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MOISTURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH LESS...IF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER NOW JUST SOUTH OF NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NEWD. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL PLUME OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PEEL OFF OF CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOWELL. AND
INTO THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE FOR NM WILL BE FROM CHIHUAHUA AS THE MID- LEVEL SLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH INCREASES.

NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH TO WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SLWY WINDS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST INTO THE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS AREA LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE MOVES OVER NM AHEAD OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NEWD. MODELS INDICATING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM NEAR DUSTY NORTH TO DULCE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 35KT WEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL FORGO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS FLOW NEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
AND NOT CROSS BARRIER WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
TERRAIN.

QUITE THE CONTRAST EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
A SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SEEP NORTHWARD MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY THANKS IN
PART TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW AS GFS AND ECMWF
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE THERE
JUST YET. GFS IS THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWARD FLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WESTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW SPOTTY BUT LIMITED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...EXPECT BREEZY GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT LEAST 10 TO
12 DEGREES AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE EXTREME EAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BECAUSE OF LEE TROUGHING
BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS...POSSIBLY TO WINDY CATEGORIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AND
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO FOCUSED LIFT AND SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCE HOWEVER.

MODELS DIFFERENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR MORNING SOLUTIONS.
THEY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND IT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIMICS YESTERDAY EVENING/S ECMWF.
THE SLOWER/DEEPER PROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH MEANS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
MIDWEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE MODELS...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN THE RUN.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 212142
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
342 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT FRIDAY. A DRIER
AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MOISTURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH LESS...IF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER NOW JUST SOUTH OF NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NEWD. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL PLUME OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PEEL OFF OF CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOWELL. AND
INTO THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE FOR NM WILL BE FROM CHIHUAHUA AS THE MID- LEVEL SLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH INCREASES.

NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH TO WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SLWY WINDS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST INTO THE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS AREA LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
DIFLUENCE MOVES OVER NM AHEAD OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NEWD. MODELS INDICATING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM NEAR DUSTY NORTH TO DULCE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 35KT WEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL FORGO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS FLOW NEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
AND NOT CROSS BARRIER WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
TERRAIN.

QUITE THE CONTRAST EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
A SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SEEP NORTHWARD MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY THANKS IN
PART TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW AS GFS AND ECMWF
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE THERE
JUST YET. GFS IS THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWARD FLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WESTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW SPOTTY BUT LIMITED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...EXPECT BREEZY GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT LEAST 10 TO
12 DEGREES AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE EXTREME EAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BECAUSE OF LEE TROUGHING
BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS...POSSIBLY TO WINDY CATEGORIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AND
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO FOCUSED LIFT AND SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCE HOWEVER.

MODELS DIFFERENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR MORNING SOLUTIONS.
THEY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND IT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIMICS YESTERDAY EVENING/S ECMWF.
THE SLOWER/DEEPER PROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH MEANS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
MIDWEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE MODELS...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN THE RUN.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INITIATE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING ISO TO
SCT SH AND TS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
IMPACT CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A BAND OF RAIN
IMPACTING KGUP/KFMN AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS MULTI HOUR BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THIS BAND MOVES EASTWARD
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF COULD BE IMPACTED AND THE IMPACTS COULD START
BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z. USING VCSH AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW TO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LATER SHIFTS MAY ADD SOME
PREVAILING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING. GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  79  55  84 /  30  30  30   5
DULCE...........................  52  75  46  79 /  30  50  40   5
CUBA............................  53  74  50  79 /  40  60  40   5
GALLUP..........................  54  76  50  79 /  50  30  30   5
EL MORRO........................  51  71  48  75 /  50  60  30   5
GRANTS..........................  56  75  50  77 /  40  50  20   5
QUEMADO.........................  53  75  51  77 /  40  40  30   5
GLENWOOD........................  56  82  53  84 /  30  20  30  10
CHAMA...........................  47  70  43  75 /  20  70  50  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  74  53  79 /  20  60  30   5
PECOS...........................  53  73  51  78 /  20  60  30   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  73  49  79 /  10  70  40   5
RED RIVER.......................  47  66  44  69 /  20  80  40  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  70  42  74 /  20  60  30   5
TAOS............................  51  75  47  80 /  10  60  20   5
MORA............................  52  74  50  78 /  20  50  30  10
ESPANOLA........................  55  79  53  83 /  10  50  20   5
SANTA FE........................  56  75  53  79 /  20  60  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  76  53  82 /  20  50  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  76  59  83 /  20  50  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  77  61  84 /  20  40  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  79  57  86 /  30  40  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  78  58  87 /  20  40  20   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  80  56  85 /  30  50  20   5
RIO RANCHO......................  64  78  60  87 /  20  40  20   5
SOCORRO.........................  63  83  61  87 /  30  50  20   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  76  54  82 /  20  50  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  76  56  81 /  20  50  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  77  50  79 /  10  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  75  54  79 /  10  60  40   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  76  56  81 /  30  50  40   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  78  59  81 /  30  50  40  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  74  55  77 /  40  60  40  10
CAPULIN.........................  56  79  54  81 /  10  50  30   5
RATON...........................  54  82  51  85 /  10  40  30   5
SPRINGER........................  55  82  53  84 /  10  40  30   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  77  52  80 /  10  50  30   5
CLAYTON.........................  64  89  61  89 /   5  30  30   5
ROY.............................  59  82  58  84 /  10  40  40   5
CONCHAS.........................  67  90  64  89 /   5  40  30   5
SANTA ROSA......................  64  86  61  88 /  10  50  30   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  93  64  93 /   5  30  30   5
CLOVIS..........................  65  89  62  89 /  10  20  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  90  63  90 /  20  20  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  89  63  89 /   5  30  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  66  91 /  10  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  62  82  60  83 /  30  50  30  10
ELK.............................  60  77  59  78 /  40  60  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33













000
FXUS65 KABQ 212142
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
342 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH ARIZONA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT FRIDAY. A DRIER
AND MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY REPLACE THE MOISTURE
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH MUCH LESS...IF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SEEP BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
LATE AUGUST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER NOW JUST SOUTH OF NEEDLES CA THIS AFTERNOON
AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING NEWD. MAINLY HIGH LEVEL PLUME OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PEEL OFF OF CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOWELL. AND
INTO THE SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW. MODELS INDICATING THE MAIN
MOISTURE SURGE FOR NM WILL BE FROM CHIHUAHUA AS THE MID- LEVEL SLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH INCREASES.

NAM12 AND LOCAL WRF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BREAK OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS NORTH TO WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. LATER TONIGHT...ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP THE RIO
GRANDE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. INCREASING SLWY WINDS ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST INTO THE THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS AREA LIKELY AS STRONG UPPER
DIFLUENCE MOVES OVER NM AHEAD OF THE NOW OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
LIFTING NEWD. MODELS INDICATING THAT WESTERN AREAS WILL GET INTO
THE ACT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NEAR THE DIVIDE FROM NEAR DUSTY NORTH TO DULCE. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING
SFC LOW OVER SE COLORADO WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 35KT WEST WINDS COMBINE
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY. WILL FORGO FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS FLOW NEAR ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY
AND NOT CROSS BARRIER WHICH WILL ALLOW STORMS TO MOVE OFF THE
TERRAIN.

QUITE THE CONTRAST EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
MOVES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LOW. LOTS OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS
A SHORT-LIVED THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL
BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE SW AND SC MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MID LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SEEP NORTHWARD MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVITY THANKS IN
PART TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE/SPEED MAX.

CONFIDENCE BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS QUITE LOW AS GFS AND ECMWF
STARTING TO CONVERGE ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION BUT NOT QUITE THERE
JUST YET. GFS IS THE MUCH DRIER SOLUTIONS WITH NW FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWARD FLOWING MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR WESTERN AREAS THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING STORM COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD IMPACTING CENTRAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WETTING RAIN COVERAGE WILL LESSEN DURING THE
WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AREAS EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ANY DEVELOPING STORMS TO MOVE
EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW SPOTTY BUT LIMITED
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT
AS WELL. BECAUSE OF LEE SIDE TROUGHING EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...EXPECT BREEZY GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH IN SOME SPOTS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE. DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WETTING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AT LEAST 10 TO
12 DEGREES AREA WIDE BECAUSE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
THE EXTREME EAST WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BECAUSE OF LEE TROUGHING
BOOSTING WIND SPEEDS...POSSIBLY TO WINDY CATEGORIES BY THE
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO EXIT TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AND
IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESIDUAL WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DUE TO FOCUSED LIFT AND SOME LEFT
OVER MONSOONAL MOISTURE. SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCE HOWEVER.

MODELS DIFFERENCES COME MORE INTO PLAY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO WITH RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY. THE
GFS AND ECWMF ARE NOW MORE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR MORNING SOLUTIONS.
THEY HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND IT IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THUS A LITTLE DRIER FOR THE AREA. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS
SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND MIMICS YESTERDAY EVENING/S ECMWF.
THE SLOWER/DEEPER PROGRESSION TO THE TROUGH MEANS BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT
BOTH ECMWF/GFS SHOW SOME SORT OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INFLUENCE
WHICH COULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
MIDWEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND LOOK FOR MORE CONSISTENCY
AMONGST THE MODELS...BOTH RUN TO RUN AND WITHIN THE RUN.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INITIATE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING ISO TO
SCT SH AND TS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
IMPACT CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A BAND OF RAIN
IMPACTING KGUP/KFMN AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS MULTI HOUR BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THIS BAND MOVES EASTWARD
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF COULD BE IMPACTED AND THE IMPACTS COULD START
BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z. USING VCSH AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW TO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LATER SHIFTS MAY ADD SOME
PREVAILING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING. GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  79  55  84 /  30  30  30   5
DULCE...........................  52  75  46  79 /  30  50  40   5
CUBA............................  53  74  50  79 /  40  60  40   5
GALLUP..........................  54  76  50  79 /  50  30  30   5
EL MORRO........................  51  71  48  75 /  50  60  30   5
GRANTS..........................  56  75  50  77 /  40  50  20   5
QUEMADO.........................  53  75  51  77 /  40  40  30   5
GLENWOOD........................  56  82  53  84 /  30  20  30  10
CHAMA...........................  47  70  43  75 /  20  70  50  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  74  53  79 /  20  60  30   5
PECOS...........................  53  73  51  78 /  20  60  30   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  73  49  79 /  10  70  40   5
RED RIVER.......................  47  66  44  69 /  20  80  40  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  70  42  74 /  20  60  30   5
TAOS............................  51  75  47  80 /  10  60  20   5
MORA............................  52  74  50  78 /  20  50  30  10
ESPANOLA........................  55  79  53  83 /  10  50  20   5
SANTA FE........................  56  75  53  79 /  20  60  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  76  53  82 /  20  50  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  76  59  83 /  20  50  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  77  61  84 /  20  40  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  79  57  86 /  30  40  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  78  58  87 /  20  40  20   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  80  56  85 /  30  50  20   5
RIO RANCHO......................  64  78  60  87 /  20  40  20   5
SOCORRO.........................  63  83  61  87 /  30  50  20   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  76  54  82 /  20  50  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  76  56  81 /  20  50  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  77  50  79 /  10  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  75  54  79 /  10  60  40   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  76  56  81 /  30  50  40   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  78  59  81 /  30  50  40  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  74  55  77 /  40  60  40  10
CAPULIN.........................  56  79  54  81 /  10  50  30   5
RATON...........................  54  82  51  85 /  10  40  30   5
SPRINGER........................  55  82  53  84 /  10  40  30   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  77  52  80 /  10  50  30   5
CLAYTON.........................  64  89  61  89 /   5  30  30   5
ROY.............................  59  82  58  84 /  10  40  40   5
CONCHAS.........................  67  90  64  89 /   5  40  30   5
SANTA ROSA......................  64  86  61  88 /  10  50  30   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  93  64  93 /   5  30  30   5
CLOVIS..........................  65  89  62  89 /  10  20  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  90  63  90 /  20  20  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  89  63  89 /   5  30  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  66  91 /  10  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  62  82  60  83 /  30  50  30  10
ELK.............................  60  77  59  78 /  40  60  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 211809 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1209 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INITIATE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING ISO TO
SCT SH AND TS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
IMPACT CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A BAND OF RAIN
IMPACTING KGUP/KFMN AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS MULTI HOUR BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THIS BAND MOVES EASTWARD
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF COULD BE IMPACTED AND THE IMPACTS COULD START
BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z. USING VCSH AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW TO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LATER SHIFTS MAY ADD SOME
PREVAILING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING. GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM...INCLUDING SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THUS FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE AS WE
AWAIT THE STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO ADVANCE EAST. ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO AZ TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN
TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AND BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH
INTO WESTERN NM.

MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH
IS WAY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH NM TUESDAY. BUT THE
EUROPEAN CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF AND DROPS IT SOUTH INTO CA BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST. TROUGH PASSAGE ON THE EUROPEAN IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY. THUS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE NOW WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT BY MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEARS AND
DRAWS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MONSOONAL SURGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE QUIET. SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT STORM COVERAGE
AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW PERCENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NAM/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TREND
TEMPS DOWNWARD...UP TO 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR EAST...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
BREEZY...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY...KEEPING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GET A BIG BOOST UPWARD
AREAWIDE.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NM. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES... THOUGH
STILL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES RETURN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH...SCOOTING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY....WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES IT OFF OVER CALI...AND DOESNT
MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION ON THE EC ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN UP ONCE AGAIN OVER NM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT WEEK.

NO WIDESPREAD VENTILATION ISSUES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 211809 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1209 PM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL INITIATE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING ISO TO
SCT SH AND TS FAVORING WESTERN AREAS INITIALLY. THIS MOISTURE
PLUME WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
IMPACT CENTRAL TERMINAL SITES. HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A BAND OF RAIN
IMPACTING KGUP/KFMN AFTER 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS MULTI HOUR BAND OF PRECIPITATION. AS THIS BAND MOVES EASTWARD
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF COULD BE IMPACTED AND THE IMPACTS COULD START
BETWEEN 08Z TO 10Z. USING VCSH AS A PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW TO
INDICATE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LATER SHIFTS MAY ADD SOME
PREVAILING RAIN AND LOWER CIGS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING. GUSTS BETWEEN
25 TO 30KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM...INCLUDING SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THUS FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE AS WE
AWAIT THE STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO ADVANCE EAST. ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO AZ TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN
TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AND BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH
INTO WESTERN NM.

MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH
IS WAY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH NM TUESDAY. BUT THE
EUROPEAN CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF AND DROPS IT SOUTH INTO CA BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST. TROUGH PASSAGE ON THE EUROPEAN IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY. THUS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE NOW WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT BY MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEARS AND
DRAWS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MONSOONAL SURGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE QUIET. SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT STORM COVERAGE
AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW PERCENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NAM/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TREND
TEMPS DOWNWARD...UP TO 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR EAST...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
BREEZY...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY...KEEPING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GET A BIG BOOST UPWARD
AREAWIDE.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NM. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES... THOUGH
STILL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES RETURN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH...SCOOTING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY....WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES IT OFF OVER CALI...AND DOESNT
MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION ON THE EC ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN UP ONCE AGAIN OVER NM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT WEEK.

NO WIDESPREAD VENTILATION ISSUES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 211135 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE FROM
TS LOWELL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD INITIATE ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TS ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA
AT KGUP STARTING LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...SPOTTY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TX BORDER LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO TCC TAF ATTM. MODELS INDICATING THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN NM
TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM...INCLUDING SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THUS FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE AS WE
AWAIT THE STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO ADVANCE EAST. ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO AZ TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN
TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AND BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH
INTO WESTERN NM.

MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH
IS WAY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH NM TUESDAY. BUT THE
EUROPEAN CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF AND DROPS IT SOUTH INTO CA BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST. TROUGH PASSAGE ON THE EUROPEAN IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY. THUS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE NOW WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT BY MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEARS AND
DRAWS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MONSOONAL SURGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE QUIET. SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT STORM COVERAGE
AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW PERCENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NAM/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TREND
TEMPS DOWNWARD...UP TO 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR EAST...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
BREEZY...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY...KEEPING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GET A BIG BOOST UPWARD
AREAWIDE.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NM. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES... THOUGH
STILL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES RETURN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH...SCOOTING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY....WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES IT OFF OVER CALI...AND DOESNT
MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION ON THE EC ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN UP ONCE AGAIN OVER NM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT WEEK.

NO WIDESPREAD VENTILATION ISSUES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 211135 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
CLOUD COVER WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS MOISTURE FROM
TS LOWELL MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND MORE TYPICAL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
APPROACH WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD INITIATE ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW TS ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED -SHRA
AT KGUP STARTING LATE THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...SPOTTY STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE TX BORDER LATE THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT INTO TCC TAF ATTM. MODELS INDICATING THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TS WILL FORM ACROSS WESTERN NM
TONIGHT AND MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM...INCLUDING SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THUS FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE AS WE
AWAIT THE STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO ADVANCE EAST. ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO AZ TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN
TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AND BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH
INTO WESTERN NM.

MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH
IS WAY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH NM TUESDAY. BUT THE
EUROPEAN CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF AND DROPS IT SOUTH INTO CA BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST. TROUGH PASSAGE ON THE EUROPEAN IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY. THUS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE NOW WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT BY MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEARS AND
DRAWS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MONSOONAL SURGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE QUIET. SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT STORM COVERAGE
AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW PERCENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NAM/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TREND
TEMPS DOWNWARD...UP TO 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR EAST...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
BREEZY...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY...KEEPING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GET A BIG BOOST UPWARD
AREAWIDE.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NM. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES... THOUGH
STILL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES RETURN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH...SCOOTING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY....WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES IT OFF OVER CALI...AND DOESNT
MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION ON THE EC ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN UP ONCE AGAIN OVER NM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT WEEK.

NO WIDESPREAD VENTILATION ISSUES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 210900
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM...INCLUDING SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THUS FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE AS WE
AWAIT THE STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO ADVANCE EAST. ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO AZ TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN
TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AND BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH
INTO WESTERN NM.

MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH
IS WAY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH NM TUESDAY. BUT THE
EUROPEAN CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF AND DROPS IT SOUTH INTO CA BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST. TROUGH PASSAGE ON THE EUROPEAN IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY. THUS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE NOW WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT BY MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEARS AND
DRAWS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MONSOONAL SURGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE QUIET. SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT STORM COVERAGE
AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW PERCENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NAM/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TREND
TEMPS DOWNWARD...UP TO 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR EAST...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
BREEZY...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY...KEEPING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GET A BIG BOOST UPWARD
AREAWIDE.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NM. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES... THOUGH
STILL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES RETURN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH...SCOOTING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY....WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES IT OFF OVER CALI...AND DOESNT
MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION ON THE EC ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN UP ONCE AGAIN OVER NM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT WEEK.

NO WIDESPREAD VENTILATION ISSUES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ONLY A FEW THIN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THICKER PATCHES ROAM THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER WAVE WILL
THEN APPROACH WESTERN NM AFT 00Z AND FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD THRU THE EVENING.
MODEL INDICATIONS NOW SHOW A POTENTIAL LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  61  79  55 /  10  30  30  10
DULCE...........................  82  52  75  46 /  20  30  40  10
CUBA............................  81  53  74  50 /  10  30  50  10
GALLUP..........................  79  54  76  50 /  20  40  30  10
EL MORRO........................  75  51  71  48 /  30  40  50  10
GRANTS..........................  81  56  75  50 /  20  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  77  53  75  51 /  30  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  84  56  82  53 /  20  30  40  30
CHAMA...........................  77  47  70  43 /  20  30  50  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  57  74  53 /  20  30  50  20
PECOS...........................  79  53  73  51 /  20  20  40  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  50  73  49 /  20  30  40  20
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  66  44 /  20  30  50  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  46  70  42 /  20  30  50  30
TAOS............................  82  51  75  47 /  10  20  40  20
MORA............................  79  52  74  50 /  20  20  50  30
ESPANOLA........................  86  55  79  53 /   5  20  40  20
SANTA FE........................  83  56  75  53 /  10  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  56  76  53 /  10  30  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  76  59 /   5  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  65  77  61 /   5  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  88  61  79  57 /   5  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  64  78  58 /   5  30  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  60  80  56 /   5  30  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  88  64  78  60 /   5  30  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  89  63  83  61 /  10  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  59  76  54 /  10  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  84  60  76  56 /  10  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  54  77  50 /   5  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  57  75  54 /  10  20  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  58  76  56 /  10  30  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  62  78  59 /  20  20  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  74  55 /  40  30  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  82  56  79  54 /  10  20  40  20
RATON...........................  87  54  82  51 /  10  20  40  20
SPRINGER........................  86  55  82  53 /  10  20  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  85  56  77  52 /  10  20  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  93  64  89  61 /  10  10  30  20
ROY.............................  86  59  82  58 /  10  10  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  93  67  90  64 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  91  64  86  61 /  10  20  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  67  93  64 /  10  10  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  91  65  89  62 /  10  30  20  30
PORTALES........................  92  65  90  63 /  20  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  89  63 /  10  20  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  95  69  92  66 /  10  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  86  62  82  60 /  30  20  40  30
ELK.............................  80  60  77  59 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 210900
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 AM MDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MOISTURE NORTH INTO NM...INCLUDING SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THUS FRIDAY
APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS THEN DIVERGE ON WHAT
HAPPENS NEXT WEEK. GFS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. EUROPEAN IS MUCH SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH A CLOSED
LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE AS WE
AWAIT THE STORM OVER SOUTHERN CA TO ADVANCE EAST. ISOLATED POPS
FOR THE VALLEYS AND PLAINS AND SCATTERED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...BELOW NORMAL IN
THE WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.

AS THE CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO AZ TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN
TO NOTICE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES
FRIDAY AND BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS.

THE MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS DRY AIR WILL FOLLOW THE
TROUGH PASSAGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN NOTICEABLY LESS CONVECTION FOR
THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE OVER THE WEST AS RETURN FLOW MOISTURE STARTS TO CREEP NORTH
INTO WESTERN NM.

MODELS DIVERGE BIG TIME FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A
FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE PATH OF THIS TROUGH
IS WAY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN. GFS IS MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE AS IT SWINGS THE TROUGH THROUGH NM TUESDAY. BUT THE
EUROPEAN CLOSES THE TROUGH OFF AND DROPS IT SOUTH INTO CA BEFORE
LIFTING IT NORTHEAST. TROUGH PASSAGE ON THE EUROPEAN IS NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY. THUS THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF
TIME...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND
ADJUST ACCORDINGLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS IN STORE. MID LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
IS IN PLACE NOW WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT BY MOIST AIR AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NEARS AND
DRAWS UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS MONSOONAL SURGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...DAYTIME HOURS TODAY WILL BE QUIET. SPOTTY STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
AN ISOLATED STORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT STORM COVERAGE
AND WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE MINIMAL. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. HUMIDITIES
WILL TREND DOWNWARD A FEW PERCENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. NAM/GFS...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE ECMWF...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER
SUNSET AND SHIFT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NONETHELESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST EARLY IN THE
AFTN...BUT BY LATE AFTN/EVENING...THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HELP TREND
TEMPS DOWNWARD...UP TO 10 DEGREES...COMPARED TO TODAYS READINGS.
IN FACT...MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
THE FAR EAST...WHERE LEE TROUGHING WILL BOOST WIND SPEEDS INTO THE
BREEZY...AND PERHAPS LOCALLY WINDY CATEGORY...KEEPING TEMPS JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITIES WILL ALSO GET A BIG BOOST UPWARD
AREAWIDE.

BY SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE EXITED TO THE EAST...AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR INTO NM. STORM CHANCES
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND TEMPS WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES... THOUGH
STILL JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST LOCALES. NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH THERE COULD BE JUST A BIT MORE STORMS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

AFTER THE WEEKEND...LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES RETURN. BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NW
CONUS. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE TROUGH...SCOOTING IT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY....WHILE THE ECMWF CLOSES IT OFF OVER CALI...AND DOESNT
MOVE IT EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES UNTIL THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THE GFS REMAINS MUCH DRIER THAN THE ECMWF EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SLOWER PROGRESSION ON THE EC ALLOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO BE DRAWN UP ONCE AGAIN OVER NM. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING NEXT WEEK.

NO WIDESPREAD VENTILATION ISSUES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. 34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ONLY A FEW THIN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THICKER PATCHES ROAM THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER WAVE WILL
THEN APPROACH WESTERN NM AFT 00Z AND FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD THRU THE EVENING.
MODEL INDICATIONS NOW SHOW A POTENTIAL LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  61  79  55 /  10  30  30  10
DULCE...........................  82  52  75  46 /  20  30  40  10
CUBA............................  81  53  74  50 /  10  30  50  10
GALLUP..........................  79  54  76  50 /  20  40  30  10
EL MORRO........................  75  51  71  48 /  30  40  50  10
GRANTS..........................  81  56  75  50 /  20  30  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  77  53  75  51 /  30  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  84  56  82  53 /  20  30  40  30
CHAMA...........................  77  47  70  43 /  20  30  50  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  57  74  53 /  20  30  50  20
PECOS...........................  79  53  73  51 /  20  20  40  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  79  50  73  49 /  20  30  40  20
RED RIVER.......................  70  47  66  44 /  20  30  50  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  46  70  42 /  20  30  50  30
TAOS............................  82  51  75  47 /  10  20  40  20
MORA............................  79  52  74  50 /  20  20  50  30
ESPANOLA........................  86  55  79  53 /   5  20  40  20
SANTA FE........................  83  56  75  53 /  10  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  56  76  53 /  10  30  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  76  59 /   5  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  65  77  61 /   5  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  88  61  79  57 /   5  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  64  78  58 /   5  30  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  60  80  56 /   5  30  40  20
RIO RANCHO......................  88  64  78  60 /   5  30  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  89  63  83  61 /  10  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  59  76  54 /  10  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  84  60  76  56 /  10  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  54  77  50 /   5  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  57  75  54 /  10  20  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  83  58  76  56 /  10  30  40  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  85  62  78  59 /  20  20  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  74  55 /  40  30  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  82  56  79  54 /  10  20  40  20
RATON...........................  87  54  82  51 /  10  20  40  20
SPRINGER........................  86  55  82  53 /  10  20  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  85  56  77  52 /  10  20  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  93  64  89  61 /  10  10  30  20
ROY.............................  86  59  82  58 /  10  10  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  93  67  90  64 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  91  64  86  61 /  10  20  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  67  93  64 /  10  10  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  91  65  89  62 /  10  30  20  30
PORTALES........................  92  65  90  63 /  20  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  66  89  63 /  10  20  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  95  69  92  66 /  10  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  86  62  82  60 /  30  20  40  30
ELK.............................  80  60  77  59 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210544 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ONLY A FEW THIN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THICKER PATCHES ROAM THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER WAVE WILL
THEN APPROACH WESTERN NM AFT 00Z AND FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD THRU THE EVENING.
MODEL INDICATIONS NOW SHOW A POTENTIAL LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU EARLY FRIDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CALM DAY TODAY AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE LATE TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SUNDAY FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITTING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION YET AGAIN
TODAY AS DESCENDING AIR ON ANTICYCLONIC (SOUTHEAST) SIDE OF THE JET
COMBINES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR LOS ANGELES
MOVES EASTWARD...WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL WILL GET PULLED NEWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
PWATS AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL TILT TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY...SHIFTING FAVORED LOCALES
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SATURDAY APPEARS AS THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH.

ANOTHER UP-TICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER GREATLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EVOLVES. ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN COLORADO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID BUMP UP THE
WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. GIST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN
DAYS IN TERMS OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN UPTICK DAY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...A FEW WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONE 109/103. OTHERWISE THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE TOPS OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALREADY
HAPPENED ACROSS THE NW THIRD.

THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN ALIGNMENT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE
DRIER AIR WITH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WOULD BE GRADUAL. SOME GARDEN VARIETY
MONSOONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LEAD
TO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE VERSUS OBSERVED TODAY. OUTFLOW
WIND/DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT BUT STILL PROMOTE
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MOISTURE TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND FUEL WIDER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PACIFIC LOW. MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THE FAVORED AREA COULD
EXTEND FURTHER BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER SOME. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND WASHING IT OUT AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE
SIMILAR. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT ENTRAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME LEFT OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN. CELLS THAT FIRE UP
SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER WAY...WETTING RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COULD FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FUEL A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY
RIGHT NOW WITH CERTAINTY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS.

WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH DAYTIME VENTILATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 210544 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ONLY A FEW THIN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
THRU THE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THICKER PATCHES ROAM THE EASTERN PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SW TO NE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER WAVE WILL
THEN APPROACH WESTERN NM AFT 00Z AND FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
AREA OF STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD THRU THE EVENING.
MODEL INDICATIONS NOW SHOW A POTENTIAL LARGER AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHIFTING SLOWLY
NORTH UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THRU EARLY FRIDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CALM DAY TODAY AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE LATE TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SUNDAY FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITTING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION YET AGAIN
TODAY AS DESCENDING AIR ON ANTICYCLONIC (SOUTHEAST) SIDE OF THE JET
COMBINES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR LOS ANGELES
MOVES EASTWARD...WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL WILL GET PULLED NEWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
PWATS AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL TILT TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY...SHIFTING FAVORED LOCALES
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SATURDAY APPEARS AS THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH.

ANOTHER UP-TICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER GREATLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EVOLVES. ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN COLORADO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID BUMP UP THE
WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. GIST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN
DAYS IN TERMS OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN UPTICK DAY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...A FEW WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONE 109/103. OTHERWISE THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE TOPS OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALREADY
HAPPENED ACROSS THE NW THIRD.

THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN ALIGNMENT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE
DRIER AIR WITH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WOULD BE GRADUAL. SOME GARDEN VARIETY
MONSOONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LEAD
TO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE VERSUS OBSERVED TODAY. OUTFLOW
WIND/DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT BUT STILL PROMOTE
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MOISTURE TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND FUEL WIDER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PACIFIC LOW. MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THE FAVORED AREA COULD
EXTEND FURTHER BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER SOME. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND WASHING IT OUT AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE
SIMILAR. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT ENTRAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME LEFT OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN. CELLS THAT FIRE UP
SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER WAY...WETTING RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COULD FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FUEL A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY
RIGHT NOW WITH CERTAINTY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS.

WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH DAYTIME VENTILATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 210008 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ISOLD SHRA/
TSRA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU SUNSET
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MOST OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET FOR AVIATION
AS WELL. THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE BY LATE
DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE SW HIGH TERRAIN
AND ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CALM DAY TODAY AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE LATE TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SUNDAY FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITTING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION YET AGAIN
TODAY AS DESCENDING AIR ON ANTICYCLONIC (SOUTHEAST) SIDE OF THE JET
COMBINES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR LOS ANGELES
MOVES EASTWARD...WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL WILL GET PULLED NEWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
PWATS AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL TILT TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY...SHIFTING FAVORED LOCALES
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SATURDAY APPEARS AS THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH.

ANOTHER UP-TICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER GREATLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EVOLVES. ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN COLORADO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID BUMP UP THE
WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. GIST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN
DAYS IN TERMS OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN UPTICK DAY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...A FEW WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONE 109/103. OTHERWISE THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE TOPS OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALREADY
HAPPENED ACROSS THE NW THIRD.

THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN ALIGNMENT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE
DRIER AIR WITH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WOULD BE GRADUAL. SOME GARDEN VARIETY
MONSOONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LEAD
TO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE VERSUS OBSERVED TODAY. OUTFLOW
WIND/DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT BUT STILL PROMOTE
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MOISTURE TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND FUEL WIDER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PACIFIC LOW. MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THE FAVORED AREA COULD
EXTEND FURTHER BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER SOME. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND WASHING IT OUT AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE
SIMILAR. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT ENTRAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME LEFT OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN. CELLS THAT FIRE UP
SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER WAY...WETTING RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COULD FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FUEL A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY
RIGHT NOW WITH CERTAINTY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS.

WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH DAYTIME VENTILATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210008 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
608 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. ISOLD SHRA/
TSRA WILL SLIDE SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU SUNSET
BEFORE TAPERING OFF. MOST OF THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET FOR AVIATION
AS WELL. THICKER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE BY LATE
DAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE SW HIGH TERRAIN
AND ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CALM DAY TODAY AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE LATE TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SUNDAY FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITTING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION YET AGAIN
TODAY AS DESCENDING AIR ON ANTICYCLONIC (SOUTHEAST) SIDE OF THE JET
COMBINES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR LOS ANGELES
MOVES EASTWARD...WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL WILL GET PULLED NEWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
PWATS AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL TILT TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY...SHIFTING FAVORED LOCALES
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SATURDAY APPEARS AS THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH.

ANOTHER UP-TICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER GREATLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EVOLVES. ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN COLORADO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID BUMP UP THE
WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. GIST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN
DAYS IN TERMS OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN UPTICK DAY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...A FEW WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONE 109/103. OTHERWISE THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE TOPS OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALREADY
HAPPENED ACROSS THE NW THIRD.

THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN ALIGNMENT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE
DRIER AIR WITH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WOULD BE GRADUAL. SOME GARDEN VARIETY
MONSOONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LEAD
TO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE VERSUS OBSERVED TODAY. OUTFLOW
WIND/DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT BUT STILL PROMOTE
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MOISTURE TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND FUEL WIDER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PACIFIC LOW. MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THE FAVORED AREA COULD
EXTEND FURTHER BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER SOME. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND WASHING IT OUT AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE
SIMILAR. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT ENTRAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME LEFT OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN. CELLS THAT FIRE UP
SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER WAY...WETTING RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COULD FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FUEL A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY
RIGHT NOW WITH CERTAINTY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS.

WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH DAYTIME VENTILATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 202121
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER CALM DAY TODAY AS ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE APPEARED ON RADAR. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A CHANGE LATE TOMORROW
INTO FRIDAY AS A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND AN UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE STATE INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREAWIDE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS A LITTLE DRIER THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY LOOKS TO FAVOR AREAS
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE SUNDAY FAVORS AREAS ACROSS THE
WEST. ANOTHER MONSOON MOISTURE SURGE IS ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS SITTING OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA NEAR LOS ANGELES AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD IN THE COMING DAYS. A RELATIVELY STRONG SWLY JET OVER THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE HAS LIMITED CONVECTION YET AGAIN
TODAY AS DESCENDING AIR ON ANTICYCLONIC (SOUTHEAST) SIDE OF THE JET
COMBINES WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE-DAY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR LOS ANGELES
MOVES EASTWARD...WEAKENS AND DEVELOPS INTO AN OPEN WAVE. MOISTURE WILL
STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
STORM LOWELL WILL GET PULLED NEWD INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FRIDAY.
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AREAWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
PWATS AND UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC LIFT INCREASE. THE MOISTURE
PLUME WILL TILT TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY...SHIFTING FAVORED LOCALES
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS SATURDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WLY FLOW BETWEEN A UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
BUILD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY AS
VERY DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. SATURDAY APPEARS AS THE DAY WITH THE LEAST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ACTIVITY SUNDAY WILL FAVOR
WESTERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH.

ANOTHER UP-TICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER MID LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME LIFTING NORTH INTO THE STATE AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS QUITE LOW AS THE GFS AND ECMWF
DIFFER GREATLY WITH HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EVOLVES. ECMWF ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW OVER
SWRN COLORADO WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO A MUCH COOLER AND WETTER
SOLUTION THAN THE GFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID BUMP UP THE
WIND FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST. GIST OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DOWN
DAYS IN TERMS OF WETTING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. FRIDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE AN UPTICK DAY FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF. LESS THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...A FEW WETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN PLAINS AND CANT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS ZONE 109/103. OTHERWISE THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE
EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF THE TOPS OF THE CUMULUS BUILDUPS. RH RECOVERIES
TONIGHT WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AS SOME OF
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THIS HAS ALREADY
HAPPENED ACROSS THE NW THIRD.

THE DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER
THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE
MORE IN ALIGNMENT VERSUS THE PREVIOUS DAYS FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
PERIOD. THIS EVOLUTION IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE
CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW CURRENTLY PARKED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AS
THIS LOW MOVES EASTWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE
DRIER AIR WITH MORE MOIST AIR. THIS EVOLUTION COULD OCCUR AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WOULD BE GRADUAL. SOME GARDEN VARIETY
MONSOONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AS THURSDAY
PROGRESSES BUT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SOME CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS BUT THE
FOOTPRINT OF WETTING RAIN WOULD BE SMALLER DUE TO LOWER HUMIDITY
THERE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ACROSS MOST AREAS AND LEAD
TO A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE VERSUS OBSERVED TODAY. OUTFLOW
WIND/DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY THIS POINT BUT STILL PROMOTE
SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

MOISTURE TRANSFER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND FUEL WIDER COVERAGE OF WETTING RAIN. THE STRONGEST
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION THAT WILL FOLLOW THE PACIFIC LOW. MODELS STILL FAVOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE
GRADIENT. ALTHOUGH ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THE FAVORED AREA COULD
EXTEND FURTHER BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD. THIS IS
WHERE THE MODELS DIFFER SOME. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
TREND UP AS A RESULT OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR THIS SCENARIO.
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS EASTWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO BE MENTIONED THAT
THE SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND
FAVOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUMPED UP THE WIND FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

MODELS STILL SHOW A DEEPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND WASHING IT OUT AND PROGRESSING IT EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE
PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE
SIMILAR. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT ENTRAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH PASSAGE
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ALTHOUGH SOME LEFT OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN. CELLS THAT FIRE UP
SHOULD FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EITHER WAY...WETTING RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE COMPARED TO
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD.

BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH...SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
COULD FLOW NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WOULD FUEL A
HIGHER COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO SAY
RIGHT NOW WITH CERTAINTY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS.

WIDESPREAD ISSUES WITH DAYTIME VENTILATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISO TO SCT SHRA AND TS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH GREATEST IMPACT
OF VCSH FOR LVS...TCC...AND ROW AFTER 21Z. TAF SITES IN THE
EXTREME NE AND EC AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE 30 KT WINDS BECAUSE OF
LEE SIDE TROUGHING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOR
TERMINALS SITES IMPACTED BY HEAVIER SH AND TS. SHOWERS LOOK TO
DIMINISH AROUND 06Z BUT POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT EXTREME SE AREAS NEAR THE TX BORDER BETWEEN 09Z- 15Z. NOT
LIKELY THOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  85  59  82 /   5   5  30  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  52  76 /  10  20  30  30
CUBA............................  51  81  52  75 /   5  10  30  40
GALLUP..........................  51  80  55  77 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  50  75  52  72 /   5  30  30  50
GRANTS..........................  50  81  56  76 /   5  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  51  77  53  75 /  10  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  52  85  55  81 /   5  20  30  30
CHAMA...........................  44  77  47  71 /  10  20  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  81  56  75 /  10  20  20  40
PECOS...........................  52  79  53  73 /  10  20  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  79  50  74 /   5  20  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  45  70  43  66 /  10  30  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  44  74  43  71 /  10  20  30  50
TAOS............................  45  82  50  76 /   5  10  20  40
MORA............................  50  79  52  74 /  10  20  20  50
ESPANOLA........................  52  86  55  81 /   5   5  20  30
SANTA FE........................  54  83  56  76 /   5  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  86  55  79 /   5  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  85  63  79 /   5   5  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  89  65  80 /   5   5  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  88  63  82 /   5   5  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  58  87  64  81 /   5   5  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  87  61  83 /   5   5  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  62  89  64  81 /   5   5  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  63  90  63  83 /  10  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  84  59  77 /   5  10  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  58  84  60  78 /   5  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  81  55  79 /  10  10  20  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  83  56  75 /  10  10  20  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  83  58  77 /  10  10  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  85  62  78 /  10  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  56  78  57  72 /  20  40  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  55  82  55  79 /  10  20  20  40
RATON...........................  52  87  54  82 /  10  20  20  40
SPRINGER........................  53  86  54  83 /  10  20  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  85  56  76 /  10  20  20  40
CLAYTON.........................  63  92  63  89 /  20  20  10  30
ROY.............................  59  86  59  82 /  20  10  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  92  66  90 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  64  91  64  86 /  20  10  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  95  67  93 /  20  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  90  65  88 /  20  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  65  91  65  89 /  20  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  91  66  88 /  20  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  93  70  90 /  20  20  20  30
PICACHO.........................  62  85  62  81 /  20  30  20  40
ELK.............................  61  80  59  75 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

21/33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 201807
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1207 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

ISO TO SCT SHRA AND TS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH GREATEST IMPACT
OF VCSH FOR LVS...TCC...AND ROW AFTER 21Z. TAF SITES IN THE
EXTREME NE AND EC AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE 30 KT WINDS BECAUSE OF
LEE SIDE TROUGHING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOR
TERMINALS SITES IMPACTED BY HEAVIER SH AND TS. SHOWERS LOOK TO
DIMINISH AROUND 06Z BUT POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT EXTREME SE AREAS NEAR THE TX BORDER BETWEEN 09Z- 15Z. NOT
LIKELY THOUGH.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 201807
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1207 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

ISO TO SCT SHRA AND TS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH GREATEST IMPACT
OF VCSH FOR LVS...TCC...AND ROW AFTER 21Z. TAF SITES IN THE
EXTREME NE AND EC AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE 30 KT WINDS BECAUSE OF
LEE SIDE TROUGHING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOR
TERMINALS SITES IMPACTED BY HEAVIER SH AND TS. SHOWERS LOOK TO
DIMINISH AROUND 06Z BUT POSSIBILITY OF LOW CLOUDS/MVFR CIGS COULD
IMPACT EXTREME SE AREAS NEAR THE TX BORDER BETWEEN 09Z- 15Z. NOT
LIKELY THOUGH.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 201133 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGUP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE THEM
BRIEFLY REDEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO THE TAF ATTM. MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NM
TODAY...AND BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KTCC AND KROW TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VC MENTION FOR NOW. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KT ACROSS NE AND EC NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KABQ 201133 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF KGUP THIS MORNING. COULD SEE THEM
BRIEFLY REDEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT
INTO THE TAF ATTM. MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE FOCUSED OVER EASTERN NM
TODAY...AND BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KTCC AND KROW TAF
SITES. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE SPOTTY...THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VC MENTION FOR NOW. STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH. BRIEF MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 06Z. OTHERWISE...LEE SIDE TROUGH MAY RESULT IN
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KT ACROSS NE AND EC NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS65 KABQ 200949
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED IN 00Z TAF SET. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CONT DVD IS TRYING HARD AS EVIDENCED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS PRECIP COMES WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND LATEST GUIDANCE DID SHOW
A BETTER SHOT AT LEAST. OBS NEAR WINDOW ROCK AND GALLUP ALSO HAVE
BKN CIGS NEAR 028 SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT KGUP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KSAF HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS MAIN TROUGH
PASSAGE SLIDES THRU IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP INTO
MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STEERING FLOW
WILL FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  84  55  87  56 /  10  10  10  30
DULCE...........................  79  47  81  51 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  79  51  81  52 /  20  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  78  49  79  52 /  20  20  20  30
EL MORRO........................  75  50  76  49 /  20  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  78  51  78  51 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  78  49  78  50 /  20  20  20  30
GLENWOOD........................  84  56  85  55 /  10  10  20  30
CHAMA...........................  76  43  77  44 /  30  20  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  53  82  56 /  20  20  20  20
PECOS...........................  77  52  79  53 /  30  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  45  79  48 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  43  71  41 /  40  20  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  46  75  43 /  40  20  20  30
TAOS............................  80  46  82  50 /  30  20  20  20
MORA............................  77  51  78  51 /  30  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  51  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  79  52  83  54 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  54  86  54 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  60  85  61 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  64  88  63 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  60  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  87  61  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  88  62 /  10  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  85  62  86  62 /  10  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  88  64  88  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  82  56  82  59 /  30  20  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  83  58  84  60 /  20  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  52  83  54 /  20  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  80  56  81  55 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  57  83  56 /  30  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  62  85  61 /  30  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  76  58  76  58 /  50  20  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  83  54  84  53 /  40  20  20  20
RATON...........................  86  53  87  52 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  85  51  85  52 /  30  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  51  83  55 /  30  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  93  63  91  63 /  30  20  20  20
ROY.............................  90  59  87  57 /  30  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  92  62  92  65 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  93  63 /  20  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  65  95  66 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  92  63  91  64 /  30  30  20  30
PORTALES........................  93  64  92  65 /  30  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  88  63  85  61 /  40  30  30  20
ELK.............................  79  62  80  60 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
















000
FXUS65 KABQ 200949
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND EAST. SOME DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THURSDAY...BUT STORM CHANCES IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE SWINGS OVER NEW MEXICO...AND MOISTURE INCREASES. DRIER
AND MOST STABLE AIR WILL LIMIT THE MORE ACTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO TWO THIRDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&

.DISCUSSION...
PLAYING WHACK-A-MOLE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH AGREEMENT
AMONG FORECAST MODELS IS BETTER.

AS FOR LOWELL...MID LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOESN/T SEEM TO SUPPORT A
HUGE SURGE OF MOISTURE GETTING THIS FAR...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE COULD MAKE IT HERE BUT AT THIS TIME DOESN/T LOOK LIKE
SIGNIFICANT AND DIRECT IMPACTS WILL RESULT. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS THOUGH. WHILE PWATS MAY BE OTHERWISE SUFFICIENT...INSTAB
LACKING TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE
RATCHETED POPS DOWN ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND RAISED HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH HIGHS STILL BELOW AVERAGE WEST AND
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF SOCAL WILL
SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AND WEST CENTRAL NM THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS AN OPEN TROUGH AND EXIT FRIDAY NIGHT...SO RAMPED UP
POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD...AND ADJUSTED DAYTIME HIGHS...WHICH WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH NM UNDER THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...DRIER
AIR TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST...AND CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FRONT AT SOME
POINT DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK MAY AFFECT THE
EASTERN PLAINS BY TRIGGERING AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALI. MADE
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TO JIVE WITH THE SCENARIO THAT
IS SHAPING UP.

MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY AHEAD OF
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...DRIER MID LEVEL
AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NM...WHICH SHOULD MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. LOWERED DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTN ACROSS WESTERN
NM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE STORMS NEARLY DUE
EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST. ABOVE NORMAL READINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST...DESPITE CLOUD COVER...DUE TO A DECENT LEE SIDE SURFACE
TROUGH. COULD SEE SOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

WHILE GFS REMAINS A BIT FASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP IT CLOSED THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT
ENTERS ARIZONA. THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS WESTERN NM TODAY MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD...LIMITING CONVECTION FURTHER. HAVE LOWERED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE FAVORED AREA FOR STORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY IF SOME MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND/OR MOISTURE FROM TS LOWELL MOVES IN QUICKER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. MEANWHILE...HAINES VALUES OF 5 MAY RETURN TO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NE AREAS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT ACTIVE DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO
A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES INTO NM. MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND MOISTURE FROM
LOWELL WILL HAVE MOVED UP INTO THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY...THERE COULD BE A BIT OF MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS
THE WEST...WHICH BOTH MODELS SUGGEST. ELSEWHERE... HOWEVER...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS...AND HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM ON
SATURDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BE SITUATED OVER EASTERN NM. STORM CHANCES AND HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND DOWNWARD FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. A LARGE SCALE
TROUGH DIVING DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR KICKING OUT
THE INITIAL LOW ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH...SUNDAY COULD SEE MORE STORMS THAN SATURDAY.
LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...COMBINED WITH REMNANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MAY SPARK ADDITIONAL STORMS FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH...AND HOW SHARP THE TROUGH WILL
BE. SOME LONG-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
UP...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED IN 00Z TAF SET. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CONT DVD IS TRYING HARD AS EVIDENCED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS PRECIP COMES WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND LATEST GUIDANCE DID SHOW
A BETTER SHOT AT LEAST. OBS NEAR WINDOW ROCK AND GALLUP ALSO HAVE
BKN CIGS NEAR 028 SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT KGUP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KSAF HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS MAIN TROUGH
PASSAGE SLIDES THRU IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP INTO
MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STEERING FLOW
WILL FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  84  55  87  56 /  10  10  10  30
DULCE...........................  79  47  81  51 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  79  51  81  52 /  20  20  20  30
GALLUP..........................  78  49  79  52 /  20  20  20  30
EL MORRO........................  75  50  76  49 /  20  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  78  51  78  51 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  78  49  78  50 /  20  20  20  30
GLENWOOD........................  84  56  85  55 /  10  10  20  30
CHAMA...........................  76  43  77  44 /  30  20  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  79  53  82  56 /  20  20  20  20
PECOS...........................  77  52  79  53 /  30  20  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  45  79  48 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  43  71  41 /  40  20  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  46  75  43 /  40  20  20  30
TAOS............................  80  46  82  50 /  30  20  20  20
MORA............................  77  51  78  51 /  30  20  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  51  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  79  52  83  54 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  54  86  54 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  60  85  61 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  64  88  63 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  60  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  87  61  87  62 /  10  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  88  62 /  10  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  85  62  86  62 /  10  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  88  64  88  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  82  56  82  59 /  30  20  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  83  58  84  60 /  20  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  52  83  54 /  20  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  80  56  81  55 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  57  83  56 /  30  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  62  85  61 /  30  20  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  76  58  76  58 /  50  20  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  83  54  84  53 /  40  20  20  20
RATON...........................  86  53  87  52 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  85  51  85  52 /  30  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  51  83  55 /  30  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  93  63  91  63 /  30  20  20  20
ROY.............................  90  59  87  57 /  30  20  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  92  62  92  65 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  93  64  93  63 /  20  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  65  95  66 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  92  63  91  64 /  30  30  20  30
PORTALES........................  93  64  92  65 /  30  30  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  88  63  85  61 /  40  30  30  20
ELK.............................  79  62  80  60 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 200534 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED IN 00Z TAF SET. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CONT DVD IS TRYING HARD AS EVIDENCED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS PRECIP COMES WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND LATEST GUIDANCE DID SHOW
A BETTER SHOT AT LEAST. OBS NEAR WINDOW ROCK AND GALLUP ALSO HAVE
BKN CIGS NEAR 028 SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT KGUP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KSAF HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS MAIN TROUGH
PASSAGE SLIDES THRU IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP INTO
MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STEERING FLOW
WILL FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...715 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
TRENDS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS OVER
THE WEST...WITH BULK OF RAINFALL HAVING FALLEN IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO BY THE BOARD FOR THIS
EVENING FOR THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE LINE. STATEMENT
SHORTLY...UPDATED ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 200534 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION HAS TAPERED OFF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED IN 00Z TAF SET. THE EXPECTATION FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CONT DVD IS TRYING HARD AS EVIDENCED BY A
SLIGHT UPTICK ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS PRECIP COMES WITH THE
MAIN AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND LATEST GUIDANCE DID SHOW
A BETTER SHOT AT LEAST. OBS NEAR WINDOW ROCK AND GALLUP ALSO HAVE
BKN CIGS NEAR 028 SO HAVE INCLUDED LOW CLOUDS AT KGUP OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SHOWERS FOR KABQ AND KSAF HOWEVER
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL TO SEE DEVELOPMENT AS MAIN TROUGH
PASSAGE SLIDES THRU IN THE VERY EARLY MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP INTO
MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. STEERING FLOW
WILL FOCUS THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...715 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
TRENDS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS OVER
THE WEST...WITH BULK OF RAINFALL HAVING FALLEN IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO BY THE BOARD FOR THIS
EVENING FOR THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE LINE. STATEMENT
SHORTLY...UPDATED ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 200115 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TRENDS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS OVER
THE WEST...WITH BULK OF RAINFALL HAVING FALLEN IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO BY THE BOARD FOR THIS
EVENING FOR THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE LINE. STATEMENT
SHORTLY...UPDATED ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY FROM THE CONT DVD WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THRU ABOUT 06Z. OUTFLOWS WILL
TRAVEL EAST AND INTERACT WITH SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
EVEN NEAR KABQ AND KSAF BY 04Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NM THRU SUNRISE THEN THIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z.
THE EAST MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

SHY








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200115 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
TRENDS KEEPING RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS OVER
THE WEST...WITH BULK OF RAINFALL HAVING FALLEN IN ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL LET FLASH FLOOD WATCH GO BY THE BOARD FOR THIS
EVENING FOR THE NEW MEXICO SIDE OF THE LINE. STATEMENT
SHORTLY...UPDATED ZONES TO FOLLOW.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY FROM THE CONT DVD WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THRU ABOUT 06Z. OUTFLOWS WILL
TRAVEL EAST AND INTERACT WITH SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
EVEN NEAR KABQ AND KSAF BY 04Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NM THRU SUNRISE THEN THIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z.
THE EAST MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 192351 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY FROM THE CONT DVD WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THRU ABOUT 06Z. OUTFLOWS WILL
TRAVEL EAST AND INTERACT WITH SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
EVEN NEAR KABQ AND KSAF BY 04Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NM THRU SUNRISE THEN THIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z.
THE EAST MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 192351 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAINLY FROM THE CONT DVD WESTWARD TO THE AZ
BORDER WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THRU ABOUT 06Z. OUTFLOWS WILL
TRAVEL EAST AND INTERACT WITH SOME ISOLD STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
EVEN NEAR KABQ AND KSAF BY 04Z. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR A COUPLE HOURS
THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL NM THRU SUNRISE THEN THIN FROM WEST TO EAST BY 18Z.
THE EAST MAY REMAIN SOCKED IN MID CLOUDS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN
INDICATING. WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES. 50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 192137
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION
HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR AFTN -SHRA AND -TSRA FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE.
LIMITED SHRA AND TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VCSH AND VCTS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL
SITES. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE PRESENT...WITH POSSIBLE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW WINDS. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOULD FORM BETWEEN THE CONT DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE
STEADY RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS. MOST LIKELY MTN TOP OBSCD. SOME
LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RAIN BAND AND
COULD IMPACT KGUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  85  58  86 /  50  10  10  20
DULCE...........................  52  78  48  81 /  60  20  10  30
CUBA............................  54  77  53  80 /  60  30  20  30
GALLUP..........................  54  80  54  80 /  40  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  53  73  53  73 /  50  30  10  40
GRANTS..........................  55  75  55  75 /  40  40  10  40
QUEMADO.........................  54  76  53  74 /  40  40  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  54  82  54  81 /  30  30  10  20
CHAMA...........................  47  73  45  76 /  60  30  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  77  56  79 /  40  50  20  30
PECOS...........................  54  76  54  77 /  30  40  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  77  51  78 /  30  30  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  66  45  68 /  60  40  20  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  73  43  73 /  50  30  20  50
TAOS............................  51  79  48  80 /  30  30  20  30
MORA............................  52  78  50  78 /  40  40  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  56  83  55  85 /  30  30  10  20
SANTA FE........................  59  78  56  79 /  40  40  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  81  55  82 /  30  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  83  63  84 /  30  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  85  65  85 /  30  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  87  62  87 /  30  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  86  63  86 /  30  20  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  85  61  85 /  30  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  63  86 /  40  30  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  89  63  89 /  20  30  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  79  58  81 /  40  30  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  57  80  58  82 /  40  30  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  54  80 /  30  20  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  78  56  80 /  40  40  20  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  81  59  82 /  30  40  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  83  63  82 /  30  40  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  55  76  55  77 /  40  60  20  40
CAPULIN.........................  57  81  56  80 /  20  30  20  40
RATON...........................  56  85  54  84 /  20  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................  57  86  54  85 /  20  30  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  80  53  80 /  30  40  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  63  91  63  90 /  10  30  10  20
ROY.............................  61  85  60  84 /  10  30  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  67  92  67  92 /  10  30  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  89  64  88 /  20  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  96  68  95 /  10  30  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  89  64  90 /  10  30  10  20
PORTALES........................  65  90  65  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  90  66  89 /  10  30  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  91  68  91 /  10  30  20  20
PICACHO.........................  62  84  62  84 /  20  40  20  30
ELK.............................  59  78  60  78 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509.

&&

$$

33


















000
FXUS65 KABQ 192137
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
337 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING..AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL THERE. ANOTHER
MONSOON SURGE WILL PUSH UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY...RETURNING
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE RATHER ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF BREAK IN ACTIVITY OCCURS
SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS SHAPING UP SIMILAR TO WHAT HIGH RES MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.
WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS AS STRONG LINE OF CONVECTION
HEADING EWD FROM SE AZ.

QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS DEBRIS BLOW OFF FROM THE MCS OVER AZ SHADING
WEST-CENTRAL AND NWRN AREAS...KEEPING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
CHECK THERE. MCV HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING ITSELF AS IT MOVES
OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. LOCAL WRF AND NAM CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
THE RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION OVER WRN NM WILL RACE
OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT SLIDES EWD TOWARD/INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. CURRENT DEWPOINT HERE AT THE SUNPORT HAS DROPPED TO 38F SO
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR ANY HOPE AT A SHOWER OR STORM IN THE ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL BE IF OUTFLOW FROM STORMS OVER THE
SANDIAS/SANGRES CAN COLLIDE WITH THE STRONG BOUNDARY EXPECTED FROM
THE WEST.

MODELS STILL MAKING LARGE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN IN TERMS OF
STABILITY AND THE RESULTING QPF. SUSPECT THAT EVEN THOUGH MODELS
INDICATING THAT MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN FROM AZ AND UP TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OR THERE ABOUTS...THAT LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTY ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER
THE WESTERN AND NRN MOUNTAINS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT
ACTIVITY ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL GET PEELED OFF OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL AND BROUGHT
INTO THE STATE THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
OPENING CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH SURFACE HEATING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THE CLOUD SHIELD THURSDAY.
MAIN LIFT FROM IMPRESSIVE 70KT JET WILL BE OVER W-CENTRAL AND NWRN
NM COULD END UP BEING STRONG. TALE OF TWO MODELS FRIDAY AS NAM
HITTING THIS DAY HARD WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND GFS HAS NEARLY
NOTHING WITH DRY WLY FLOW ALOFT. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH NAM AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ARE MUCH SLOWER WILL OPENING UP
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED UPPER LOW.

ALSO TRENDED SATURDAY AND BEYOND TOWARD THE WETTER 12Z ECMWF AS
GFS CONTINUALLY WANTS TO PREMATURELY DRY THINGS OUT WITH DRIER WLY
FLOW ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. STILL LOOKING
ACTIVE ACROSS WESTERN AND SOME CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THEN DECLINING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
BEFORE INCREASING ON FRIDAY. THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SOME DURING
THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THAT IS STILL A QUESTION MARK. MODELS STILL
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH THE NEAR-MID TERM PERIOD.

AS FAR AS THE NEAR TERM...LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN COVERAGE
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AREAS BETWEEN THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL BE FAVORED. SOME
GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM THE BAND THAT DEVELOPS AND PROVIDE
SOME STRONGER BREEZES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE LIKELY WIND DIRECTION WOULD BE FROM THE WEST. THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR
HIGHER HUMIDITY MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING ACROSS THE WEST/CENTRAL AREAS. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARENT BULLISH FOR A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN EVENT BUT EXPECT
SOME WETTING RAIN FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS
DUE TO STORM MOTION. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE
MOST PART. DESPITE THE DRYING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SOME
AND THAT WILL MAKE FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE HUMIDITY. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO A FAIRLY
STOUT LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHEN THE PACIFIC LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST OR GETS ABSORBED INTO THE MEAN JET FLOW ALOFT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE AND EJECTS THE LOW EASTWARD
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WOULD HAVE SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. THE NAM/ECMWF ARE DELAYED AND PUSH THE LOW EASTWARD
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THUS EXPANDING COVERAGE OF WETTING
STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BASICALLY SETTING UP A DIFFERENCE OF
12 TO 24 HRS ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL SURGE UP WHILE WETTING RAIN EXPANDS WHEN THE LOW DECIDES
TO EJECT EASTWARD.

THE WEEKEND PERIOD IS STILL A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. ALL OF THE
MID/LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A PACIFIC TROUGH DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NW/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WOULD BE A BELT OF
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WHICH COULD ACT TO PULL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM MEXICO. THE ORIENTATION...POSITIVE VERSUS
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AND SPEED OF THE TROUGH IS TANTAMOUNT TO
DETERMINING WETTING RAIN COVERAGE AND FAVORED AREAS. IF THE TROUGH
COMES IN TOO QUICK...DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST COULD INVADE THE AREA
AND LOWER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. IF
THE TROUGH IS A BIT SLOW THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR MOISTURE AND WETTING
RAIN AREAWIDE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND FIGURE SOME
UNSETTLEDNESS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SORT OF PATTERN CHANGE WHICH MAY
BEGIN DURING THE WEEKEND FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TOO EARLY TO SAY
WHETHER THIS WOULD TAKE HOLD BUT SOME RIDGING COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. SOMETHING TO WATCH. THIS MEANS SOME BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS
DOWN THE ROCKIES.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR AFTN -SHRA AND -TSRA FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE.
LIMITED SHRA AND TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VCSH AND VCTS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL
SITES. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE PRESENT...WITH POSSIBLE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW WINDS. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOULD FORM BETWEEN THE CONT DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE
STEADY RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS. MOST LIKELY MTN TOP OBSCD. SOME
LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RAIN BAND AND
COULD IMPACT KGUP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  59  85  58  86 /  50  10  10  20
DULCE...........................  52  78  48  81 /  60  20  10  30
CUBA............................  54  77  53  80 /  60  30  20  30
GALLUP..........................  54  80  54  80 /  40  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  53  73  53  73 /  50  30  10  40
GRANTS..........................  55  75  55  75 /  40  40  10  40
QUEMADO.........................  54  76  53  74 /  40  40  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  54  82  54  81 /  30  30  10  20
CHAMA...........................  47  73  45  76 /  60  30  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  77  56  79 /  40  50  20  30
PECOS...........................  54  76  54  77 /  30  40  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  77  51  78 /  30  30  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  66  45  68 /  60  40  20  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  73  43  73 /  50  30  20  50
TAOS............................  51  79  48  80 /  30  30  20  30
MORA............................  52  78  50  78 /  40  40  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  56  83  55  85 /  30  30  10  20
SANTA FE........................  59  78  56  79 /  40  40  20  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  81  55  82 /  30  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  83  63  84 /  30  20  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  67  85  65  85 /  30  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  87  62  87 /  30  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  86  63  86 /  30  20  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  62  85  61  85 /  30  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  63  86 /  40  30  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  89  63  89 /  20  30  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  79  58  81 /  40  30  20  30
TIJERAS.........................  57  80  58  82 /  40  30  20  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  54  80 /  30  20  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  78  56  80 /  40  40  20  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  81  59  82 /  30  40  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  83  63  82 /  30  40  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  55  76  55  77 /  40  60  20  40
CAPULIN.........................  57  81  56  80 /  20  30  20  40
RATON...........................  56  85  54  84 /  20  30  20  30
SPRINGER........................  57  86  54  85 /  20  30  10  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  80  53  80 /  30  40  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  63  91  63  90 /  10  30  10  20
ROY.............................  61  85  60  84 /  10  30  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  67  92  67  92 /  10  30  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  89  64  88 /  20  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  96  68  95 /  10  30  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  89  64  90 /  10  30  10  20
PORTALES........................  65  90  65  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  90  66  89 /  10  30  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  91  68  91 /  10  30  20  20
PICACHO.........................  62  84  62  84 /  20  40  20  30
ELK.............................  59  78  60  78 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ505>509.

&&

$$

33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 191805 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR AFTN -SHRA AND -TSRA FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE.
LIMITED SHRA AND TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VCSH AND VCTS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL
SITES. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE PRESENT...WITH POSSIBLE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW WINDS. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOULD FORM BETWEEN THE CONT DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE
STEADY RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS. MOST LIKELY MTN TOP OBSCD. SOME
LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RAIN BAND AND
COULD IMPACT KGUP.

32/50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1041 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. 12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE MCS/MCV OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS HIGH
PWAT AIR FROM SE AZ AND THE NM BOOTHEEL. LCL WRF AND NAM12 BOTH
INDICATING 1.15-1.35" PWAT FOR THESE AREAS BY 21Z. HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE OVER/NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN STEEP TERRAIN FROM APPROXIMATELY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ505>509.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 191805 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOOK FOR AFTN -SHRA AND -TSRA FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE.
LIMITED SHRA AND TS ACTIVITY EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VCSH AND VCTS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINAL
SITES. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE PRESENT...WITH POSSIBLE 30-40 KT OUTFLOW WINDS. A BAND
OF RAIN SHOULD FORM BETWEEN THE CONT DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS BAND SHOULD PRODUCE MORE
STEADY RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS. MOST LIKELY MTN TOP OBSCD. SOME
LEFT OVER MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS RAIN BAND AND
COULD IMPACT KGUP.

32/50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1041 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. 12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE MCS/MCV OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS HIGH
PWAT AIR FROM SE AZ AND THE NM BOOTHEEL. LCL WRF AND NAM12 BOTH
INDICATING 1.15-1.35" PWAT FOR THESE AREAS BY 21Z. HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE OVER/NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN STEEP TERRAIN FROM APPROXIMATELY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ505>509.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 191641 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. 12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE MCS/MCV OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS HIGH
PWAT AIR FROM SE AZ AND THE NM BOOTHEEL. LCL WRF AND NAM12 BOTH
INDICATING 1.15-1.35" PWAT FOR THESE AREAS BY 21Z. HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE OVER/NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN STEEP TERRAIN FROM APPROXIMATELY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...526 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN NM DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KGUP/KFMN WILL RECEIVE -SHRA/-TSRA. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
ACROSS THE WEST...AS WELL AS MT TOP OBSCURATIONS...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40KT IN OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PERHAPS IMPACTING
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF...THOUGH MOST MODELS SHOW STORMS WEAKENING OR
DIMINISHING WITH TIME. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ505>509.

&&

$$

33













000
FXUS65 KABQ 191641 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1041 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADD FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND WEST-CENTRAL AREAS. 12Z MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN
ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE MCS/MCV OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPS HIGH
PWAT AIR FROM SE AZ AND THE NM BOOTHEEL. LCL WRF AND NAM12 BOTH
INDICATING 1.15-1.35" PWAT FOR THESE AREAS BY 21Z. HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE OVER/NEAR RECENT BURN SCARS
AND IN STEEP TERRAIN FROM APPROXIMATELY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...526 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN NM DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KGUP/KFMN WILL RECEIVE -SHRA/-TSRA. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
ACROSS THE WEST...AS WELL AS MT TOP OBSCURATIONS...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40KT IN OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PERHAPS IMPACTING
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF...THOUGH MOST MODELS SHOW STORMS WEAKENING OR
DIMINISHING WITH TIME. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ505>509.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 191126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN NM DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KGUP/KFMN WILL RECEIVE -SHRA/-TSRA. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
ACROSS THE WEST...AS WELL AS MT TOP OBSCURATIONS...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40KT IN OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PERHAPS IMPACTING
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF...THOUGH MOST MODELS SHOW STORMS WEAKENING OR
DIMINISHING WITH TIME. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 191126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT OVER WESTERN NM DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTN HOURS. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG/WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WITH MINIMAL ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KGUP/KFMN WILL RECEIVE -SHRA/-TSRA. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
ACROSS THE WEST...AS WELL AS MT TOP OBSCURATIONS...AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40KT IN OUTFLOW WINDS. THIS EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...PERHAPS IMPACTING
KAEG/KABQ/KSAF...THOUGH MOST MODELS SHOW STORMS WEAKENING OR
DIMINISHING WITH TIME. DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EAST.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 190930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS DID NOT
IMPROVE ON LATEST TAF SET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOST IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE FEATURES TUESDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AS SEEN
BY SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER FAR NORTHERN NM. FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE TUESDAY AS THE ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA
SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AREA FOR STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS IN THE AREA
WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON APPROACHING STORMS FROM THE
WEST. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS THUS OUT WEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NM BY SUNSET. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET UNTIL EVENING WHEN KROW MAY GET A FEW STORMS MERGING OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  60  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
DULCE...........................  84  52  77  48 /  40  60  20  20
CUBA............................  84  56  77  52 /  30  60  30  20
GALLUP..........................  79  55  79  52 /  40  40  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  53  75  50 /  50  50  30  20
GRANTS..........................  82  56  78  52 /  50  50  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  79  55  77  51 /  50  50  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  84  60  83  56 /  50  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  80  47  75  43 /  40  60  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  83  57  79  54 /  20  40  30  30
PECOS...........................  82  56  79  53 /  20  30  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  51  78  47 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  45  69  43 /  40  30  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  77  47  73  45 /  30  40  40  30
TAOS............................  84  53  79  49 /  30  30  40  20
MORA............................  81  54  77  52 /  20  30  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  87  59  84  53 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  84  57  80  53 /  20  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  59  83  55 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  62  83  59 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  65  85  62 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  66  86  58 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  65  85  60 /  20  40  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  66  86  62 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  88  65  85  62 /  20  40  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  86  63 /  20  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  58  80  55 /  30  30  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  59  81  57 /  30  30  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  86  58  82  54 /  20  30  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  84  58  80  56 /  20  30  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  86  60  81  58 /  20  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  64  82  61 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  80  59  79  60 /  40  30  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  86  58  82  51 /  10  20  30  20
RATON...........................  88  57  86  53 /  10  20  30  20
SPRINGER........................  87  58  84  52 /  20  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  57  79  52 /  20  30  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  94  64  92  63 /  10  20  20  20
ROY.............................  90  62  88  60 /  10  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  92  68  90  62 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  93  67  91  64 /  10  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  68  93  67 /   5  10  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  92  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  93  66  91  65 /   5  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  67  90  65 /  10  10  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  30  20
PICACHO.........................  89  65  84  63 /  10  20  40  30
ELK.............................  83  62  78  61 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 190930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
325 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT EAST OF NEW MEXICO TODAY...ALLOWING A
PLUME OF MOISTURE TO MOVE FROM ARIZONA AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NOW
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT...AS THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY...AND TAPERS OFF BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS WEEK OR
OVER THE WEEKEND FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO IMPACT CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY...AND LOOK TO BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DON/T RECALL MODELS BEING THIS VARIABLE IN THE SHORTER AND LONGER
TERM SINCE LAST WINTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

IN HONOR OF THE START OF FOOTBALL SEASON...PUNTING SEEMS LIKE THE
BEST PLAN. APPEARS THERE WILL BE A RATHER QUICK HITTING SURGE THAT
IS SHUNTED EAST AND SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL AZ WITH OVER 1.5 INCH PWAT SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. DID TRIM POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF MODEL BLEND AS THE
PLUME AND THUS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.
QPF NOW SIGNIFICANTLY LESS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAN WHAT WAS
INHERITED IN THE GRIDS. RAMPED UP POPS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MATERIALIZING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES YO-YO A BIT DUE TO THE INCREASE AND DECREASE OF
PREDICTED MOISTURE BUT GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST...FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE MAY BE A STRONGER FRONT WHICH IMPACTS THE
PLAINS...BUT TIMING ON THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING...AS HAS THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/UPPER MIDWEST. MAYBE
ALL THE VARIABILITY HINTS FALL IS ON IT/S WAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT MUCH CHANGE THIS MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND REMAIN IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT THEREAFTER.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS EAST TODAY...AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THIS WILL SET UP A
GOOD MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY OVER ARIZONA THIS MORNING. THE
MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY NEAR. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER...STORMS MAY
MOVE TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  WETTING RAINS ARE
LIKELY...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EAST THANKS TO DRY/STABLE AIR PERSISTING OVER THE AREA.

WHATS LEFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN NM ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING IN ACROSS THE
WEST/NW. THIS PLUS ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART
DUE TO REMNANTS OF TUESDAYS CONVECTION...AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD IN TERM OF STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST.

STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE NEXT INFLUX OF MOISTURE. IT WILL ALL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE MOST PROGRESSIVE...ABSORBING THE LOW INTO
THE MAIN WESTERLIES AND QUICKLY FLATTENING OUT THE TROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE STATE IN WESTERLY FLOW ON
FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY TOO FAST...AND TOO PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LOW. THE NAM/ECMWF KEEP THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALI/NORTHERN
BAJA THRU THURSDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING IT EASTWARD FRIDAY ACROSS AZ.
THIS SCENARIO ALSO KEEPS A SHARPER TROUGH...ALLOWING MORE MOISTURE
TO ADVECT NORTHWARD. IN THIS CASE...THE NEXT MONSOONAL MOISTURE
SURGE FOR NM WOULD LIKELY COME THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.

REGARDLESS OF MODEL OUTCOME...LOOKS LIKE TRANSPORT WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP VENTILATION IN THE GOOD OR BETTER THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS DID NOT
IMPROVE ON LATEST TAF SET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOST IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE FEATURES TUESDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AS SEEN
BY SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER FAR NORTHERN NM. FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE TUESDAY AS THE ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA
SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AREA FOR STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS IN THE AREA
WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON APPROACHING STORMS FROM THE
WEST. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS THUS OUT WEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NM BY SUNSET. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET UNTIL EVENING WHEN KROW MAY GET A FEW STORMS MERGING OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  60  83  57 /  30  50  20  10
DULCE...........................  84  52  77  48 /  40  60  20  20
CUBA............................  84  56  77  52 /  30  60  30  20
GALLUP..........................  79  55  79  52 /  40  40  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  53  75  50 /  50  50  30  20
GRANTS..........................  82  56  78  52 /  50  50  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  79  55  77  51 /  50  50  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  84  60  83  56 /  50  30  30  20
CHAMA...........................  80  47  75  43 /  40  60  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  83  57  79  54 /  20  40  30  30
PECOS...........................  82  56  79  53 /  20  30  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  51  78  47 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  71  45  69  43 /  40  30  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  77  47  73  45 /  30  40  40  30
TAOS............................  84  53  79  49 /  30  30  40  20
MORA............................  81  54  77  52 /  20  30  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  87  59  84  53 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  84  57  80  53 /  20  30  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  59  83  55 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  62  83  59 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  65  85  62 /  20  30  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  66  86  58 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  65  85  60 /  20  40  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  66  86  62 /  20  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  88  65  85  62 /  20  40  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  86  63 /  20  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  58  80  55 /  30  30  30  20
TIJERAS.........................  85  59  81  57 /  30  30  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  86  58  82  54 /  20  30  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  84  58  80  56 /  20  30  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  86  60  81  58 /  20  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  64  82  61 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  80  59  79  60 /  40  30  50  30
CAPULIN.........................  86  58  82  51 /  10  20  30  20
RATON...........................  88  57  86  53 /  10  20  30  20
SPRINGER........................  87  58  84  52 /  20  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  84  57  79  52 /  20  30  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  94  64  92  63 /  10  20  20  20
ROY.............................  90  62  88  60 /  10  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  92  68  90  62 /  10  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  93  67  91  64 /  10  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  96  68  93  67 /   5  10  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  92  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  93  66  91  65 /   5  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  67  90  65 /  10  10  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  96  70  92  68 /  10  10  30  20
PICACHO.........................  89  65  84  63 /  10  20  40  30
ELK.............................  83  62  78  61 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 190524 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS DID NOT
IMPROVE ON LATEST TAF SET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOST IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE FEATURES TUESDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AS SEEN
BY SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER FAR NORTHERN NM. FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE TUESDAY AS THE ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA
SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AREA FOR STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS IN THE AREA
WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON APPROACHING STORMS FROM THE
WEST. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS THUS OUT WEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NM BY SUNSET. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET UNTIL EVENING WHEN KROW MAY GET A FEW STORMS MERGING OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEXAS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND BY THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF QUICK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MASSIVE RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH
CORE OVER THE NEW MEXICO NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU HANGING TOUGH AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WORKS
AGAINST THE WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...PERSISTENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE BITTEROOT AND
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO AND
INTO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
EXTENDS WEAK TROUGH IN TURN SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY. CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...FAVORING
THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BEGINNING
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ARIZONA
BORDER IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN WITH SOME
FUZZINESS ON FEATURE PLACEMENT AND TIMING A RUMBLING RHYTHM
THROUGH THE MORNING SIMULATIONS. RIDGE CORE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WEST
COAST TROUGH FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDS
REACH TOWARD A QUASI STATIONARY TROPICAL SYSTEM...NOW LABELED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE E...IN THE EAST PACIFIC OFF THE MEXICO
COAST. WEST COAST TROUGH APPEARS TO REACH THE T.D. BY MIDWEEK INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL IMPART A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TROUGH WILL SHEAR EASTWARD AND ABANDON THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TROUGH BASE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND SHEARING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE CORE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN WESTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AN ADDITIONAL
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TUG INTO NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP
AND THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS. AS THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM COILS UP
OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TIP ON TUESDAY...THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAN HANG TOUGH WILL
DICTATE THE LOOK OF THE MIDWEEK FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING AND PAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PWAT VALUES NEAR
AN INCH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...WITH VALUES DROPPING
BACK TOWARD 0.75 INCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

FOR TUESDAY...A TRICKY DAY FOR LINING UP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
STATE BOUNDARIES...AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE STATE LINE IN EASTERN ARIZONA. DESPITE
THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN FOCUS...BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AS PWAT ONE INCH CONTOUR
LINES UP ROUGHLY FROM FARMINGTON TO SOCORRO TUESDAY WITH LARGEST
VALUES NEAR THE CHUSKA RANGE AND ADJACENT TO WESTERN CATRON
COUNTY. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH MODEL TRENDS
SUGGESTING THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT
CAUTION THAT A RAINY DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL ALSO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXTENDS TROUGH AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTHWARD TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AND THUS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH EXPRESSED AS CLOSED LOW ALOFT SPRAWLED
OVER LOS ANGELES...SANTA BARBARA...AND BAKERSFIELD...WILL IMPART
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED NORTH AND EASTBOUND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NEW MEXICO. WITH SHIFT IN THE DIRECTION OF MOISTURE
PENETRATION...HIGHER PWAT VALUES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN ENCROACHES ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. NET EFFECT WILL BE
GREATER STORM COVERAGE BUT REDUCED STORM INTENSITY IN THE ABSENCE
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RAINFALL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION MORE
EVEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
WILL HELP SUPPORT TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND SOME
SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...STRONGEST
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EXTREME EAST. POINTS IN THE WEST WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLAY FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WEST TEXAS. BROAD DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WIDESPREAD...WITH PWAT TOPPING AN
INCH EAST OF A SILVER CITY TO RATON LINE...WITH PWAT OVER 1.5 INCH
EAST OF A CLAYTON TO RUIDOSO AXIS...AND ALL SPOTS AT SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. GENTLE
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...TROUGH ALOFT WILL HANG OUT OVER
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...AS SERIES OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVES KEEP
THE TROUGH SHAPE TO THE FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY RIDGE
RETREAT INTO TEXAS WILL REVERSE INTO A WESTWARD ADVANCE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...REINVIGORATING THE NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TAP OUT OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING A WIDESPREAD SHOWERY FORECAST STORY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MOST SPOTS TO NORMAL OR BETTER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WARMEST OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID TRY TO GO
ON THE HIGH END OF MODEL DEW POINT GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

THE MAIN WETTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAIN ACTION
BEYOND MIDNIGHT WOULD BE FOUND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
FAVORING THE AZ BORDER AREA. A DRY WEDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AND MOST OF THE EAST TODAY.

THE STAGE IS STILL SET FOR A MONSOON SURGE INITIALLY IMPACTING FAR
WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN
AS A RESULT. IT APPEARS THAT EASTERN AREAS WOULD BE TOO DRY ALOFT
AND/OR TOO STABLE. HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL ALSO TREND
UP ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE A VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WOULD BE A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL. POTENTIALLY DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUD DEBRIS
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION ALTHOUGH WETTING
STORMS WILL TRY TO FORM IN THE SUNSHINE CRACKS AND ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME. STORMS WOULD ALSO TEND TO
FIRE UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THIS IS
REALLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED LOW POSITION AND HOW IT APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. THE GFS REMAINS REAL BULLISH FOR BRINGING THE
CLOSED LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THUS
KEEPING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN DOES NOT. THIS
DIFFERENCE MAKES THE GFS AN OUTLIER SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A
DOWN TICK WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

EVENTUALLY THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD GET SWEPT BACK INTO THE MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AND THAT IS ONE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WETTING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT
ON THIS WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT.

BREEZES SHOULD IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...OTHERWISE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 190524 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1124 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS DID NOT
IMPROVE ON LATEST TAF SET. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF MOST IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE FEATURES TUESDAY.
THE MAIN AXIS OF MONSOON MOISTURE IS OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AS SEEN
BY SHOWERS/STORMS STILL ONGOING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO
DRIFTING SOUTH OVER FAR NORTHERN NM. FAVORED AREAS SHOULD BE ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CONT DIVIDE TUESDAY AS THE ACTIVITY IN ARIZONA
SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. LOWEST CONFIDENCE AREA FOR STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS IN THE AREA
WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME INFLUENCE ON APPROACHING STORMS FROM THE
WEST. GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDER IS THUS OUT WEST WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL NM BY SUNSET. THE EAST SHOULD REMAIN
QUIET UNTIL EVENING WHEN KROW MAY GET A FEW STORMS MERGING OVER
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT EAST TO TEXAS
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...OPENING THE DOOR FOR
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND BY THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. A SERIES OF QUICK DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MASSIVE RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH
CORE OVER THE NEW MEXICO NORTHWESTERN PLATEAU HANGING TOUGH AS
UPSTREAM TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WORKS
AGAINST THE WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...PERSISTENT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE BITTEROOT AND
ROCKY MOUNTAIN CHAINS STRETCHES ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO AND
INTO SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS
EXTENDS WEAK TROUGH IN TURN SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY. CONVECTION ALREADY UNDERWAY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...FAVORING
THE HIGH COUNTRY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND BEGINNING
TO EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ARIZONA
BORDER IN PATTERN THAT SHOULD HOLD UP WELL INTO THE EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN WITH SOME
FUZZINESS ON FEATURE PLACEMENT AND TIMING A RUMBLING RHYTHM
THROUGH THE MORNING SIMULATIONS. RIDGE CORE OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
RETREAT EASTWARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...AS WEST
COAST TROUGH FROM WESTERN KANSAS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EXTENDS
REACH TOWARD A QUASI STATIONARY TROPICAL SYSTEM...NOW LABELED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE E...IN THE EAST PACIFIC OFF THE MEXICO
COAST. WEST COAST TROUGH APPEARS TO REACH THE T.D. BY MIDWEEK INTO
THURSDAY...AND WILL IMPART A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TROUGH WILL SHEAR EASTWARD AND ABANDON THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH TROUGH BASE
CROSSING NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE SATURDAY...AND SHEARING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE SUNDAY. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE CORE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL BEGIN WESTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR AN ADDITIONAL
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TUG INTO NEW MEXICO AS THE WEEKEND WINDS UP
AND THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS. AS THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM COILS UP
OFF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TIP ON TUESDAY...THE DEGREE TO
WHICH THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. CAN HANG TOUGH WILL
DICTATE THE LOOK OF THE MIDWEEK FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING AND PAST
MIDNIGHT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. PWAT VALUES NEAR
AN INCH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...WITH VALUES DROPPING
BACK TOWARD 0.75 INCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.

FOR TUESDAY...A TRICKY DAY FOR LINING UP RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND
STATE BOUNDARIES...AS LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL JUST WEST OF THE STATE LINE IN EASTERN ARIZONA. DESPITE
THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN FOCUS...BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN NEAR THE ARIZONA LINE...AS PWAT ONE INCH CONTOUR
LINES UP ROUGHLY FROM FARMINGTON TO SOCORRO TUESDAY WITH LARGEST
VALUES NEAR THE CHUSKA RANGE AND ADJACENT TO WESTERN CATRON
COUNTY. WILL THUS HOLD OFF ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH...WITH MODEL TRENDS
SUGGESTING THREAT WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT
CAUTION THAT A RAINY DAY IS ON TAP FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
WILL ALSO EXPAND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS...SOUTHERLY
BREEZES WILL CRANK UP OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN COLORADO EXTENDS TROUGH AND TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SOUTHWARD TO ROUGHLY EL PASO. TEMPERATURES OTHERWISE
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER...AND THUS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE DAY FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME EAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH EXPRESSED AS CLOSED LOW ALOFT SPRAWLED
OVER LOS ANGELES...SANTA BARBARA...AND BAKERSFIELD...WILL IMPART
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED NORTH AND EASTBOUND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO NEW MEXICO. WITH SHIFT IN THE DIRECTION OF MOISTURE
PENETRATION...HIGHER PWAT VALUES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND SOUTH
AS SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN ENCROACHES ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. NET EFFECT WILL BE
GREATER STORM COVERAGE BUT REDUCED STORM INTENSITY IN THE ABSENCE
OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WITH RAINFALL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION MORE
EVEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND
WILL HELP SUPPORT TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND SOME
SOUTHERLY AFTERNOON BREEZINESS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...STRONGEST
NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
EXTREME EAST. POINTS IN THE WEST WILL RUN 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
LATE AUGUST NORMALS.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH ALOFT SWINGING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLAY FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WEST TEXAS. BROAD DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALOFT WILL KEEP
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WIDESPREAD...WITH PWAT TOPPING AN
INCH EAST OF A SILVER CITY TO RATON LINE...WITH PWAT OVER 1.5 INCH
EAST OF A CLAYTON TO RUIDOSO AXIS...AND ALL SPOTS AT SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY BREEZES
CONTINUE AWAY FROM THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. GENTLE
WARMING TREND WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE OR TWO.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...TROUGH ALOFT WILL HANG OUT OVER
NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...AS SERIES OF REINFORCING SHORTWAVES KEEP
THE TROUGH SHAPE TO THE FLOW ALOFT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY RIDGE
RETREAT INTO TEXAS WILL REVERSE INTO A WESTWARD ADVANCE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...REINVIGORATING THE NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TAP OUT OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING A WIDESPREAD SHOWERY FORECAST STORY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
MOST SPOTS TO NORMAL OR BETTER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WARMEST OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. DID TRY TO GO
ON THE HIGH END OF MODEL DEW POINT GUIDANCE FOR THE UPCOMING MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS.

THE MAIN WETTING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MAIN ACTION
BEYOND MIDNIGHT WOULD BE FOUND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
FAVORING THE AZ BORDER AREA. A DRY WEDGE AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS AND MOST OF THE EAST TODAY.

THE STAGE IS STILL SET FOR A MONSOON SURGE INITIALLY IMPACTING FAR
WESTERN AREAS TUESDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN
AS A RESULT. IT APPEARS THAT EASTERN AREAS WOULD BE TOO DRY ALOFT
AND/OR TOO STABLE. HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS MOST AREAS WILL ALSO TREND
UP ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST AREAS WILL SEE A VERY LITTLE CHANGE.

IT APPEARS THAT WEDNESDAY WOULD BE A DOWN DAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTION
AND WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL. POTENTIALLY DUE TO LOTS OF CLOUD DEBRIS
OVER THE AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT/S CONVECTION ALTHOUGH WETTING
STORMS WILL TRY TO FORM IN THE SUNSHINE CRACKS AND ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME. STORMS WOULD ALSO TEND TO
FIRE UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THIS IS
REALLY DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED LOW POSITION AND HOW IT APPROACHES THE
STATE FROM THE WEST. THE GFS REMAINS REAL BULLISH FOR BRINGING THE
CLOSED LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THUS
KEEPING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF/NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE CANADIAN DOES NOT. THIS
DIFFERENCE MAKES THE GFS AN OUTLIER SO CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR A
DOWN TICK WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

EVENTUALLY THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD GET SWEPT BACK INTO THE MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW AND THAT IS ONE CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WETTING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT
ON THIS WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF THE
STATE THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT.

BREEZES SHOULD IMPACT THE EASTERN PLAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...OTHERWISE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOWS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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