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000
FXUS65 KABQ 020533 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION AS
LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT SUBSIDES. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING FOR MT OBSCURATIONS IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND LCL
VSBYS IN BR THRU 15Z BEFORE IMPROVING. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW TO
INCH CLOSE ENOUGH TO NM BY 03/00Z TO HELP INITIATE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...846 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.UPDATE...

WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AS SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT IS LEFT
FOR THE EVENING WITH LITTLE REGENERATION OR NEWLY DEVELOPING
BATCHES. THUS...POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WERE FINE-TUNED WITH AN OVERALL REDUCTION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO INTRODUCED TO TONIGHT`S
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS WETTED THE
SOILS. LAND INFO SYSTEM VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS FROM NASA
SPORT INDICATE SOME HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS OF
NM...AND HAVE USED THIS AS A FIRST GUESS WHERE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL INITIATE TONIGHT.

NEW ZONE FORECAST IS OUT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PRECIPITATION AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WIND WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAYS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
CALIFORNIAS COAST LINE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO SPELLING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THESE COULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT
THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DRAW THE DRYLINE INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...IT
TAKES A BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER...WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER DAYS...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. COOLER READING WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. WE
CANNOT SAY ANY OF THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE TX BORDER DURING THE EVENINGS WHEN A
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN
PICKUP THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WEST THURSDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020246 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
846 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED AS SPEEDS HAVE TRENDED DOWN FAIRLY
RAPIDLY. ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE ALL THAT IS LEFT
FOR THE EVENING WITH LITTLE REGENERATION OR NEWLY DEVELOPING
BATCHES. THUS...POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WERE FINE-TUNED WITH AN OVERALL REDUCTION...ESPECIALLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP EXPECTED.

SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG WERE ALSO INTRODUCED TO TONIGHT`S
FORECAST...PARTICULARLY WHERE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS WETTED THE
SOILS. LAND INFO SYSTEM VOLUMETRIC SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS FROM NASA
SPORT INDICATE SOME HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE IN THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL VALLEYS...AND NORTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS OF
NM...AND HAVE USED THIS AS A FIRST GUESS WHERE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WILL INITIATE TONIGHT.

NEW ZONE FORECAST IS OUT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...534 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ AT 23Z TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AFT 06Z...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU 02/15Z. MTS OBSCURED IN AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -RASN AS WELL AS BR AND ISOLD TSTMS. PRECIPITATION
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFT 02/06Z BUT MT OBSCURATIONS DUE TO MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO PERSIST THRU 02/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PRECIPITATION AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WIND WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAYS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
CALIFORNIAS COAST LINE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO SPELLING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THESE COULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT
THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DRAW THE DRYLINE INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...IT
TAKES A BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER...WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER DAYS...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. COOLER READING WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. WE
CANNOT SAY ANY OF THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE TX BORDER DURING THE EVENINGS WHEN A
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN
PICKUP THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WEST THURSDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012334 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ AT 23Z TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AFT 06Z...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU 02/15Z. MTS OBSCURED IN AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -RASN AS WELL AS BR AND ISOLD TSTMS. PRECIPITATION
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFT 02/06Z BUT MT OBSCURATIONS DUE TO MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO PERSIST THRU 02/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PRECIPITATION AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WIND WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAYS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
CALIFORNIAS COAST LINE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO SPELLING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THESE COULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT
THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DRAW THE DRYLINE INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...IT
TAKES A BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER...WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER DAYS...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. COOLER READING WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. WE
CANNOT SAY ANY OF THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE TX BORDER DURING THE EVENINGS WHEN A
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN
PICKUP THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WEST THURSDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-520-524-525.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012334 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW OVER EAST CENTRAL AZ AT 23Z TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE AFT 06Z...HOWEVER LOW LEVEL EAST TO WEST GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BUT SLOWLY WEAKEN THRU 02/15Z. MTS OBSCURED IN AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
HIGHER TERRAIN -RASN AS WELL AS BR AND ISOLD TSTMS. PRECIPITATION
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFT 02/06Z BUT MT OBSCURATIONS DUE TO MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO PERSIST THRU 02/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...329 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PRECIPITATION AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WIND WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAYS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
CALIFORNIAS COAST LINE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO SPELLING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THESE COULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT
THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DRAW THE DRYLINE INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...IT
TAKES A BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER...WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER DAYS...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. COOLER READING WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. WE
CANNOT SAY ANY OF THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE TX BORDER DURING THE EVENINGS WHEN A
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN
PICKUP THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WEST THURSDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-520-524-525.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012129
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SOME PRECIPITATION AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY WIND WILL LINGER INTO
THE EVENING...THEN DECREASE MARKEDLY IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
LATE TONIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. IN ITS WAKE A RESIDUAL UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA AND WORK WITH RECYCLED MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL TO
WEST CENTRAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...EACH DAY WILL
BRING WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK...EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAYS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAYS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG
CALIFORNIAS COAST LINE WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.
MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL PASS MAINLY NORTH OF NEW
MEXICO SPELLING WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA. THESE COULD BEGIN IN THE WEST AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...BUT
THEY WILL BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALSO DRAW THE DRYLINE INTO EASTERN NM ON
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...IT
TAKES A BREAK DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THEN RETURNS LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO WIDESPREAD...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS UNTIL LATER IN THE WORK WEEK.

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ AND NM BORDER...WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS NE.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE HAS RESULTED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN
SNOW. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. STRONG EAST WINDS
IN PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MID EVENING. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE MILDER DAYS...YET STILL BELOW NORMAL.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS
LIKELY. VENT RATES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND
FRIDAY IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY THEN ABOVE
NORMAL THURSDAY. COOLER READING WILL ARRIVE IN THE WEST FRIDAY. WE
CANNOT SAY ANY OF THESE DAYS WILL BE DRY...BUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
WILL BE SPOTTY AT BEST...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS ALONG THE TX BORDER DURING THE EVENINGS WHEN A
DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY THEN
PICKUP THURSDAY IN THE WEST AND MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WEST THURSDAY...WEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS FRIDAY...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS SATURDAY. VENT
RATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER RETURNS BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE UPSWING WHILE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL. BOTH DAYS OF THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE
BREEZY TO WINDY.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  62  34  71 /  30  20  20  10
DULCE...........................  27  57  28  67 /  60  30  30  30
CUBA............................  26  56  30  65 /  30  10  20  30
GALLUP..........................  27  59  29  69 /  40  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  24  54  28  62 /  50  40  40  30
GRANTS..........................  25  57  29  67 /  40  30  40  30
QUEMADO.........................  30  58  36  67 /  60  40  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  36  69  40  76 /  20  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  22  50  26  60 /  70  30  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  53  35  61 /  50  30  30  40
PECOS...........................  28  53  33  62 /  40  20  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  22  51  26  59 /  40  30  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  20  41  23  46 /  60  40  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  15  45  19  51 /  50  40  20  50
TAOS............................  22  52  26  61 /  30  10  20  30
MORA............................  23  48  28  55 /  60  30  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  32  60  37  68 /  40  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  31  54  36  62 /  40  10  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  30  57  35  65 /  30  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  36  61  42  70 /  30  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  36  62  42  70 /  20  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  32  64  41  73 /  20  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  37  63  42  72 /  30  10  30  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  32  63  40  71 /  30  10  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  36  63  41  71 /  30  10  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  37  65  44  74 /  50  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  30  55  36  64 /  40  10  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  30  59  38  68 /  40  10  30  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  57  32  64 /  40  10  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  26  54  32  62 /  40  10  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  58  38  66 /  40  10  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  63  40  71 /  10   5   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  29  55  36  64 /  30  10   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  25  50  28  56 /  50  10  10  20
RATON...........................  25  54  27  60 /  40  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  25  56  29  63 /  30  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  25  53  30  61 /  30  10  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  33  58  35  66 /  40   5  10  20
ROY.............................  28  55  33  64 /  30  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  36  63  41  71 /  20   5   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  35  61  42  71 /  20   5   5  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  34  64  38  72 /  20   5   5  20
CLOVIS..........................  35  62  40  72 /  20   5   5  20
PORTALES........................  36  63  41  72 /  10   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  36  63  42  71 /  20   5   5  20
ROSWELL.........................  38  67  42  77 /  10   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  33  60  38  71 /  30   5   5  10
ELK.............................  31  57  36  67 /  20  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-520-524-525.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011842 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1242 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
RESHAPED THE WIND ADVISORY...ALLOWING SOME ZONES TO EXPIRE AND
EXTENDING IT FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO SOCORRO AND CARRIZOZO...BASED ON
THE LATEST LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING
BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND AMARILLO...AS A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
MOVED INTO THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW PERSISTED OVER THE WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BORDER.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1154 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-520-524-525.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011842 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1242 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
RESHAPED THE WIND ADVISORY...ALLOWING SOME ZONES TO EXPIRE AND
EXTENDING IT FROM ALBUQUERQUE TO SOCORRO AND CARRIZOZO...BASED ON
THE LATEST LOCAL MESOSCALE MODEL FORECAST AND GFS LAMP GUIDANCE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS INCREASING DURING THE LATE MORNING
BETWEEN ALBUQUERQUE AND AMARILLO...AS A POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH
MOVED INTO THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER LOW PERSISTED OVER THE WESTERN
NEW MEXICO BORDER.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1154 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-520-524-525.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011754 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-507-518-521.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-525.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ520-524.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011754 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH ABOUT 04Z.
PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.
40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-507-518-521.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ519-525.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ520-524.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011158
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ519.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011158
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
558 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN. PRECIPITATION TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH 03Z TO 09Z BUT MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
MONDAY...ISOLD TO SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ519.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY...COOL AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY. STRONG EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUFFET MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE ACTIVE WEATHER WEAKENS. AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING UP TO THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
EAST WINDS IN ABQ ARE BEHAVING SO FAR WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
GUSTS (56 MPH) BEING REPORTED DOWNWIND/WEST OF EMBUDO CANYON NEAR
INDIAN SCHOOL AND TRAMWAY. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ON THE WEST
MESA LIKELY BALANCING OUT THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. WILL
LEAVE HIGH WIND WARNING AND WIND ADVISORIES ALONE WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POSSIBLY ALLOWING STRONGER EAST WINDS TO MATERIALIZE. NAM
KEEPS A STRONG GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL NM MOST OF THE DAY. EAST
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. CLOSED LOW CENTER NEAR
PHOENIX EARLY THIS MORNING...SLOWLY HEADED EAST- NE. MODELS KEEP
PRECIP FOCUS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS GREATEST. COLD CORE ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AS IS.
NOT CONFIDENT AMOUNT WARNING AMOUNTS IN THE SANGRES BUT LOCAL
AMOUNTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES COULD COME CLOSE.

CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND SHEAR APART ACROSS NW AND NORTH-
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS NRN AZ AND NRN NM MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO PRODUCE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NW HALF OF NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. GFS AND ECMWF NOW BRING A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DUE SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT SLIDING INTO ERN NM TUESDAY. THIS FRONT MAY HELP WITH
SHOWERS AND T-STORM FORMATION ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES BUT THE MAIN INGREDIENTS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE WILL BE DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY. GFS AND TO SOME
EXTENT THE ECMWF NOW NOT BACKING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH TO
BRING THE DRYLINE WWD INTO ERN NM THURSDAY BUT BRING UP LOW AND
MID- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULT
OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES THURSDAY. ECMWF HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
BUT IS NOT AS BULLISH WITH PRECIP THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOTH MODELS ARE NOW SLOWER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. FOR THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GFS BRINGS IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND
LOTS OF SW WIND FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF AGREES ON WIND
BUT PUSHES THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT EWD FASTER. THIS PATTERN HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO GET INTERESTING IN TERMS OF SEVERE T-STORMS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE DRYLINE FAR ENOUGH WEST
TO COMBINE WITH STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DAILY WARMING WILL TREND TEMPERATURES TO NORMAL LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A DRY SLOT AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY WITH MORE LIKELY
AND WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE THAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY NEXT
WEEKEND...THOUGH CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT THROUGH THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL VALLEYS AND NEARLY TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. STRONG GAP WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
THOUGH MAGNITUDES ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATED. HOWEVER...SOUTHEAST RIDGE TOP FLOW CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN AND GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES. A BROAD AREA OF WETTING RAIN AND HIGHER
TERRAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH
MAX TEMPS TODAY 10 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE
EAST WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TRAILING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE EACH DAY...BUT CHANCES OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH. DESPITE
INCREASING MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY...LIGHT
TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION WITH BETTER
VENTILATION ELSEWHERE. BOTH MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS
INCREASE ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES FINALLY REACHING SEASONAL LEVELS. RESIDUAL
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS.
VENTILATION TO REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES JUST EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AND THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DRIER AIR AND
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM REACHES WESTERN
ZONES WHERE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.  BY FRIDAY...THE DRY SLOT COVERS MORE OF THE STATE AND THE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE UPPER LOW REACHES ARIZONA.  CHANCES
INCREASE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. VENTILATION TO BE EXCELLENT
BOTH DAYS.

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THAT COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER CLOSED LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AT 05Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO EAST CENTRAL AZ BY 01/16Z. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THRU THE ERN PLAINS WITH BRIEF NLY WIND
GUSTS TO 35KT...AND RESULT IN VERY STRONG ELY WNDS INTO THE RGV
ESPECIALLY FROM THE KSKX VCNTY SWD THRU KABQ AND KONM. WHILE THE
PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 50-55KT EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KABQ 01/07Z-14Z AN OVERALL SE LOW LEVEL WIND TO PERSIST THRU
01/18Z. OTHERWISE...MTS TO BE OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO SHOWERS...ISOLD TSTMS AND LCL BR CENTRAL AND WEST...AND IN
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY IN -RASN BR/FG FROM E SLOPES CENTRAL MT
CHAIN ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SWD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  49  32  62  35 /  70  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  44  27  57  27 /  80  50  30  20
CUBA............................  43  26  55  31 /  70  40  10  20
GALLUP..........................  46  26  60  31 /  70  50  30  20
EL MORRO........................  40  23  54  28 /  80  60  40  40
GRANTS..........................  44  24  57  30 /  70  50  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  28  58  32 /  80  60  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  60  35  70  39 /  40  20  10   5
CHAMA...........................  40  22  49  26 /  80  60  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  31  51  37 /  80  50  30  40
PECOS...........................  39  28  52  33 /  70  50  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  39  21  51  27 /  70  50  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  31  21  39  24 /  90  60  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  14  43  19 /  90  60  40  30
TAOS............................  40  22  52  27 /  70  40  10  20
MORA............................  31  24  46  28 /  80  50  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  47  33  59  37 /  60  40  20  20
SANTA FE........................  40  32  52  37 /  50  40  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  30  56  36 /  50  40  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  35  60  43 /  20  40  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  37  62  42 /  10  40  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  50  34  64  38 /  10  30  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  37  63  43 /  20  40  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  31  63  37 /  20  30  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  48  36  62  42 /  30  40  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  58  36  65  43 /  50  50  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  31  53  38 /  40  50  10  40
TIJERAS.........................  41  29  55  36 /  30  40  10  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  26  55  30 /  30  40  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  26  53  34 /  50  40  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  31  57  37 /  30  30  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  34  63  39 /  50  20   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  43  32  55  36 /  60  30  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  33  26  48  29 /  80  50  10  10
RATON...........................  39  25  52  28 /  70  50  10  20
SPRINGER........................  39  25  54  30 /  70  30  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  37  25  52  30 /  70  40  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  41  33  57  35 /  60  30   5   5
ROY.............................  38  28  54  33 /  60  40  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  45  34  61  40 /  50  20   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  42  34  59  40 /  50  20   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  32  62  37 /  60  20   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  44  35  60  40 /  40  20   5   5
PORTALES........................  46  36  62  41 /  40  20   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  35  61  41 /  50  20   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  53  38  65  42 /  30  20   5   5
PICACHO.........................  45  33  58  38 /  40  20   5   5
ELK.............................  45  33  55  37 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ519.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010536 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ AT 05Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO EAST CENTRAL AZ BY 01/16Z. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THRU THE ERN PLAINS WITH BRIEF NLY WIND
GUSTS TO 35KT...AND RESULT IN VERY STRONG ELY WNDS INTO THE RGV
ESPECIALLY FROM THE KSKX VCNTY SWD THRU KABQ AND KONM. WHILE THE
PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 50-55KT EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF
KABQ 01/07Z-14Z AN OVERALL SE LOW LEVEL WIND TO PERSIST THRU
01/18Z. OTHERWISE...MTS TO BE OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS
DUE TO SHOWERS...ISOLD TSTMS AND LCL BR CENTRAL AND WEST...AND IN
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY IN -RASN BR/FG FROM E SLOPES CENTRAL MT
CHAIN ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SWD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
...RARE DAMAGING EAST WIND EVENT EXPECTED IN THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST
WILL DRAW A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS OVERTOPPING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL SLAM INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS FROM 35 TO 60 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL FEEL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...INCLUDING SANTA FE. THE STORM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE UP TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE STORM WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER WINDS...A LINGERING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING EAST WINDS IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE OCCURRENCE. ALL OF EASTERN
ALBUQUERQUE...INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS AND
FOOTHILLS...WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE VERY STRONG WINDS AS 30-35 KT
E TO SE FLOW AT 700 MB OVERTOPS THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE
ACCELERATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME GUSTS REACHING NEAR 75 MPH.

MODELS ARE ALSO PAINTING A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AND EXITS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...COLD AIR DELIVERED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF LATE
SEASON SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. I-25 WILL BE
IMPACTED FROM SANTA FE TO THE COLORADO BORDER...AS WELL AS I-40
CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW NEAR 1
FOOT...TOO. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED THERE AND UPGRADE AS NEEDED.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER A MID LEVEL RIDGE OR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. EVEN IF THE GFS RIDGE IS
RIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RECYCLE FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER
GRADUALLY WARMS ABOVE SUNDAYS COLD READINGS. MODELS AGREE ON THE
RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT AROUND MID WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS ALONG THE CA...AZ BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

BUT THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THE BIGGEST STORY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THEIR WIND FORECASTS FOR ALBUQUERQUE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT
TO MAJOR GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THIS COULD
BE AN OVER THE TOP EVENT FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH WOULD
MEAN STRONG TO HIGH WINDS OVER A BIT LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES...AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE MOST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE.

MUCH COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
SO EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

THE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. WETTING PRECIPITATION THOUGH
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TRENDING UP SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGHS
CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS
AND A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES IN THE EAST
ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ519.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 302345 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SW AZ AT 23Z WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO ERN AZ
BY 01/16Z. AT THE SAME TIME...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD
THRU THE ERN PLAINS WITH SOME NLY WIND GUSTS TO 35KT...AND RESULT
IN VERY STRONG ELY WNDS INTO THE RGV ESPECIALLY FROM THE KSKX
VCNTY SWD THRU KABQ AND KONM. WHILE THE PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND
50-55KT EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE VCNTY OF KABQ 01/05Z-12Z AN
OVERALL SE LOW LEVEL WIND TO PERSIST THRU 01/18Z. OTHERWISE...MTS
TO BE AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS CENTRAL
AND WEST...AND TERRAIN TO BECOME OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBY
IN -RASN BR FROM E SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES SWD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
...RARE DAMAGING EAST WIND EVENT EXPECTED IN THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST
WILL DRAW A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS OVERTOPPING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL SLAM INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS FROM 35 TO 60 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL FEEL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...INCLUDING SANTA FE. THE STORM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE UP TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE STORM WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER WINDS...A LINGERING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING EAST WINDS IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE OCCURRENCE. ALL OF EASTERN
ALBUQUERQUE...INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS AND
FOOTHILLS...WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE VERY STRONG WINDS AS 30-35 KT
E TO SE FLOW AT 700 MB OVERTOPS THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE
ACCELERATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME GUSTS REACHING NEAR 75 MPH.

MODELS ARE ALSO PAINTING A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AND EXITS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...COLD AIR DELIVERED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF LATE
SEASON SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. I-25 WILL BE
IMPACTED FROM SANTA FE TO THE COLORADO BORDER...AS WELL AS I-40
CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW NEAR 1
FOOT...TOO. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED THERE AND UPGRADE AS NEEDED.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER A MID LEVEL RIDGE OR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. EVEN IF THE GFS RIDGE IS
RIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RECYCLE FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER
GRADUALLY WARMS ABOVE SUNDAYS COLD READINGS. MODELS AGREE ON THE
RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT AROUND MID WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS ALONG THE CA...AZ BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

BUT THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THE BIGGEST STORY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THEIR WIND FORECASTS FOR ALBUQUERQUE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT
TO MAJOR GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THIS COULD
BE AN OVER THE TOP EVENT FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH WOULD
MEAN STRONG TO HIGH WINDS OVER A BIT LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES...AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE MOST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE.

MUCH COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
SO EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

THE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. WETTING PRECIPITATION THOUGH
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TRENDING UP SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGHS
CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS
AND A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES IN THE EAST
ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-510-512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ506-511.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 302150
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...RARE DAMAGING EAST WIND EVENT EXPECTED IN THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST
WILL DRAW A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS OVERTOPPING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL SLAM INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS FROM 35 TO 60 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL FEEL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...INCLUDING SANTA FE. THE STORM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE UP TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE STORM WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER WINDS...A LINGERING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING EAST WINDS IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE OCCURRENCE. ALL OF EASTERN
ALBUQUERQUE...INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS AND
FOOTHILLS...WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE VERY STRONG WINDS AS 30-35 KT
E TO SE FLOW AT 700 MB OVERTOPS THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE
ACCELERATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME GUSTS REACHING NEAR 75 MPH.

MODELS ARE ALSO PAINTING A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AND EXITS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...COLD AIR DELIVERED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF LATE
SEASON SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. I-25 WILL BE
IMPACTED FROM SANTA FE TO THE COLORADO BORDER...AS WELL AS I-40
CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW NEAR 1
FOOT...TOO. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED THERE AND UPGRADE AS NEEDED.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER A MID LEVEL RIDGE OR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. EVEN IF THE GFS RIDGE IS
RIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RECYCLE FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER
GRADUALLY WARMS ABOVE SUNDAYS COLD READINGS. MODELS AGREE ON THE
RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT AROUND MID WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS ALONG THE CA...AZ BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

BUT THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THE BIGGEST STORY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THEIR WIND FORECASTS FOR ALBUQUERQUE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT
TO MAJOR GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THIS COULD
BE AN OVER THE TOP EVENT FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH WOULD
MEAN STRONG TO HIGH WINDS OVER A BIT LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES...AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE MOST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE.

MUCH COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
SO EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

THE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. WETTING PRECIPITATION THOUGH
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TRENDING UP SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGHS
CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS
AND A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES IN THE EAST
ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS...AND ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE EAST THROUGH 21Z. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL COMBINE WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS TO PRODUCE
HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WITH HIGH...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  54  34  62 /  70  70  40  20
DULCE...........................  32  48  27  57 /  70  80  60  30
CUBA............................  34  47  27  54 /  80  70  50  20
GALLUP..........................  33  51  25  60 /  80  70  50  30
EL MORRO........................  28  46  24  55 /  90  80  60  40
GRANTS..........................  28  47  25  56 /  80  70  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  32  51  30  61 /  70  80  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  37  64  34  70 /  50  40  20  10
CHAMA...........................  28  41  21  49 /  80  80  60  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  45  32  52 /  90  80  60  30
PECOS...........................  30  40  29  50 /  90  70  50  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  39  20  50 /  80  80  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  23  30  19  37 /  90  90  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  32  14  42 / 100  90  60  40
TAOS............................  26  42  20  51 /  30  70  40  20
MORA............................  27  33  25  42 / 100  80  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  35  51  33  59 /  70  60  40  20
SANTA FE........................  34  44  33  52 /  80  60  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  33  47  31  56 /  70  40  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  39  50  38  60 /  60  20  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  39  51  38  61 /  50  20  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  55  37  63 /  50  20  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  40  54  38  63 /  60  30  40  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  37  54  34  62 /  50  30  40  10
RIO RANCHO......................  39  53  37  62 /  60  40  40  10
SOCORRO.........................  41  61  36  66 /  40  40  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  34  42  32  52 /  70  40  50  10
TIJERAS.........................  35  45  34  57 /  70  30  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  29  42  28  53 /  60  30  40  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  37  28  50 /  70  50  40  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  33  45  31  56 /  40  30  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  38  54  34  62 /  20  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  36  46  33  54 /  30  50  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  27  36  26  46 /  70  80  60  20
RATON...........................  28  40  24  50 /  70  70  60  10
SPRINGER........................  28  41  24  51 /  80  70  40  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  28  38  26  49 / 100  70  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  32  42  33  53 /  50  60  40  10
ROY.............................  30  40  28  50 /  70  60  40  10
CONCHAS.........................  35  47  33  57 /  60  70  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  35  44  34  56 /  60  60  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  34  48  31  57 /  50  60  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  38  45  34  56 /  40  50  20  10
PORTALES........................  39  46  36  58 /  30  50  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  38  46  34  57 /  40  50  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  42  53  37  64 /  20  40  10  10
PICACHO.........................  36  47  33  57 /  30  50  20  10
ELK.............................  38  48  34  54 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 302150
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

...RARE DAMAGING EAST WIND EVENT EXPECTED IN THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHING NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST
WILL DRAW A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
TONIGHT. POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS OVERTOPPING THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL SLAM INTO THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS FROM 35 TO 60 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL FEEL GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...INCLUDING SANTA FE. THE STORM WILL
ALSO PRODUCE UP TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW TO SEVERAL
INCHES IN THE SURROUNDING HIGHLANDS AND VALLEYS...AS WELL AS THE
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE STORM WILL EXIT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEAKER WINDS...A LINGERING CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A LATE SEASON FREEZE IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING EAST WINDS IN THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...GIVING US HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY RARE OCCURRENCE. ALL OF EASTERN
ALBUQUERQUE...INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST HEIGHTS AND
FOOTHILLS...WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE VERY STRONG WINDS AS 30-35 KT
E TO SE FLOW AT 700 MB OVERTOPS THE SANDIA MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPE
ACCELERATION ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN SOME GUSTS REACHING NEAR 75 MPH.

MODELS ARE ALSO PAINTING A CLEARER PICTURE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AND EXITS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...COLD AIR DELIVERED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF LATE
SEASON SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. I-25 WILL BE
IMPACTED FROM SANTA FE TO THE COLORADO BORDER...AS WELL AS I-40
CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS COULD RECEIVE WARNING CRITERIA SNOW NEAR 1
FOOT...TOO. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED THERE AND UPGRADE AS NEEDED.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL AT ODDS ON WHETHER A MID LEVEL RIDGE OR
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINATING WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. EVEN IF THE GFS RIDGE IS
RIGHT...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO RECYCLE FOR DAILY ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE WEATHER
GRADUALLY WARMS ABOVE SUNDAYS COLD READINGS. MODELS AGREE ON THE
RIDGE BECOMING DOMINANT AROUND MID WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN
INCREASING CHANCES OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS ALONG THE CA...AZ BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TONIGHT THEN WEAKEN AS IT TURNS
NORTHEAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE
WESTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS.

BUT THE SNOW MAY NOT BE THE BIGGEST STORY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THEIR WIND FORECASTS FOR ALBUQUERQUE. WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT...EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT
TO MAJOR GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL VALLEYS. THIS COULD
BE AN OVER THE TOP EVENT FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH WOULD
MEAN STRONG TO HIGH WINDS OVER A BIT LARGER AREA THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 40
KNOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISORIES...AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE MOST IMPACT EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE.

MUCH COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
SO EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

THE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. WETTING PRECIPITATION THOUGH
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY EARLY IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TRENDING UP SOME MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
WHILE ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGHS
CONTINUE TO WARM WEDNESDAY...FINALLY REACHING NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL OR
EASTERN ZONES.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS
AND A CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY.
DRYLINE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOWERS IN THE NORTH...AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES IN THE EAST
ON MONDAY...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS...AND ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE EAST THROUGH 21Z. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL COMBINE WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS TO PRODUCE
HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WITH HIGH...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  54  34  62 /  70  70  40  20
DULCE...........................  32  48  27  57 /  70  80  60  30
CUBA............................  34  47  27  54 /  80  70  50  20
GALLUP..........................  33  51  25  60 /  80  70  50  30
EL MORRO........................  28  46  24  55 /  90  80  60  40
GRANTS..........................  28  47  25  56 /  80  70  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  32  51  30  61 /  70  80  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  37  64  34  70 /  50  40  20  10
CHAMA...........................  28  41  21  49 /  80  80  60  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  45  32  52 /  90  80  60  30
PECOS...........................  30  40  29  50 /  90  70  50  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  39  20  50 /  80  80  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  23  30  19  37 /  90  90  50  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  32  14  42 / 100  90  60  40
TAOS............................  26  42  20  51 /  30  70  40  20
MORA............................  27  33  25  42 / 100  80  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  35  51  33  59 /  70  60  40  20
SANTA FE........................  34  44  33  52 /  80  60  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  33  47  31  56 /  70  40  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  39  50  38  60 /  60  20  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  39  51  38  61 /  50  20  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  55  37  63 /  50  20  40  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  40  54  38  63 /  60  30  40  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  37  54  34  62 /  50  30  40  10
RIO RANCHO......................  39  53  37  62 /  60  40  40  10
SOCORRO.........................  41  61  36  66 /  40  40  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  34  42  32  52 /  70  40  50  10
TIJERAS.........................  35  45  34  57 /  70  30  40  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  29  42  28  53 /  60  30  40  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  37  28  50 /  70  50  40  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  33  45  31  56 /  40  30  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  38  54  34  62 /  20  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  36  46  33  54 /  30  50  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  27  36  26  46 /  70  80  60  20
RATON...........................  28  40  24  50 /  70  70  60  10
SPRINGER........................  28  41  24  51 /  80  70  40  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  28  38  26  49 / 100  70  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  32  42  33  53 /  50  60  40  10
ROY.............................  30  40  28  50 /  70  60  40  10
CONCHAS.........................  35  47  33  57 /  60  70  30  10
SANTA ROSA......................  35  44  34  56 /  60  60  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  34  48  31  57 /  50  60  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  38  45  34  56 /  40  50  20  10
PORTALES........................  39  46  36  58 /  30  50  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  38  46  34  57 /  40  50  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  42  53  37  64 /  20  40  10  10
PICACHO.........................  36  47  33  57 /  30  50  20  10
ELK.............................  38  48  34  54 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ502-506-510>512-516-527>529.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-507-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301803 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS EASTERN ALBUQUERQUE BETWEEN
06Z AND 15Z SUNDAY...

SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS...AND ACROSS A SMALL
PORTION OF THE EAST THROUGH 21Z. RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

A POWERFUL BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BLAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL COMBINE WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS TO PRODUCE
HIGH WINDS THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WITH HIGH...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...WINDS AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. 40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1128 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL COME
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING PARTS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST/FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. 44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS
INCREASING. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301728 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL COME
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING PARTS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST/FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY. FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING THOUGH KLVS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES IN
FREEZING FOG LESS THAN HALF A MILE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL...A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS STRONG GAP
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301728 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WILL COME
TONIGHT...BUT IT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. WILL CONSIDER ADDING PARTS OF THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST/FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...602 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY. FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING THOUGH KLVS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES IN
FREEZING FOG LESS THAN HALF A MILE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL...A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS STRONG GAP
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY. FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING THOUGH KLVS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES IN
FREEZING FOG LESS THAN HALF A MILE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL...A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS STRONG GAP
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...AND AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE EAST
THIS MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE LATER TODAY. FOG WILL BE LIMITED IN
COVERAGE THIS MORNING THOUGH KLVS WILL SEE VISIBILITIES IN
FREEZING FOG LESS THAN HALF A MILE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL...A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHEN SOUTHEAST WINDS AT RIDGETOP LEVELS STRONG GAP
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL VALLEYS WITH VERY STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED AT KABQ. STRONG WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AREAS WILL
ALSO IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...PERSISTING INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY WHEN A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN STRONG TO DAMAGING EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS AT KABQ. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT KTCC AND
KLVS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  39  55  35 /  30  70  70  50
DULCE...........................  56  31  48  29 /  40  70  70  50
CUBA............................  56  33  48  27 /  60  70  70  40
GALLUP..........................  58  33  50  27 /  60  80  70  50
EL MORRO........................  54  29  45  25 /  60  80  80  50
GRANTS..........................  59  29  48  25 /  50  70  70  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  33  52  30 /  50  60  60  50
GLENWOOD........................  69  36  64  35 /  20  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  49  28  40  23 /  60  70  80  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  36  44  32 /  70  80  70  70
PECOS...........................  56  31  40  29 /  40  80  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  26  39  21 /  60  60  60  40
RED RIVER.......................  38  23  28  19 /  70  90  90  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  20  30  16 /  70  90  90  60
TAOS............................  52  27  42  21 /  50  60  60  40
MORA............................  48  28  31  25 /  80 100  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  36  52  33 /  30  60  40  40
SANTA FE........................  56  35  43  32 /  30  60  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  34  47  31 /  30  60  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  40  50  37 /  20  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  40  51  37 /  10  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  39  55  36 /  10  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  41  55  37 /  20  40  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  38  55  34 /  10  40  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  40  54  37 /  20  40  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  69  42  63  36 /  20  20  40  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  32  40  32 /  30  60  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  34  45  33 /  20  50  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  59  31  42  29 /  20  50  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  29  36  29 /  30  70  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  34  46  32 /  20  40  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  39  55  35 /   5  10  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  61  37  46  35 /   5  20  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  44  26  36  27 /  40  60  70  50
RATON...........................  49  27  40  25 /  60  70  70  40
SPRINGER........................  53  28  40  25 /  70  80  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  28  37  26 /  60 100  70  50
CLAYTON.........................  53  32  41  33 /  20  40  60  30
ROY.............................  52  30  39  29 /  30  50  60  40
CONCHAS.........................  63  36  47  34 /  10  50  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  36  44  35 /  20  40  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  34  48  33 /  10  30  50  30
CLOVIS..........................  68  38  46  36 /  10  30  40  30
PORTALES........................  70  39  46  38 /  10  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  38  45  37 /  10  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  79  43  54  40 /   5  10  20  10
PICACHO.........................  72  38  47  35 /   5  10  30  20
ELK.............................  67  39  47  36 /   5  20  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH NEVADA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STRONG EAST WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE-TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE
LINGERS AND COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS ONE CLOSED LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ANOTHER ONE IS
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WRN GREAT BASIN LOW WILL
TRACK SEWD INTO SOUTHWEST AZ BY AROUND SUNSET...THEN LIFT NEWD TO
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A
VERY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PLOW SOUTH AND SWWD THROUGH THE
ERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN OVERNIGHT. UPGRADED HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE
MIDDLE RGV TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON SUNDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR ABQ INDICATING SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF
45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH POSSIBLE. LOWER
RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL (700MB) SELY
BUT THE LOCALLY RUN 00Z 1KM WRF-ARW SHOWS MORE OF AN ELY
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MANZANOS. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SPILL OVER TYPE EVENT WITH HIGH WINDS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM
SANDIA HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD ALONG AND NEAR TRAMWAY AND JUAN TABO TO
FOUR HILLS AND THE SE HEIGHTS OF ABQ. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HIGH
EAST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF TIJERAS CANYON ALONG AND NEAR THE I-40
CORRIDOR AND CENTRAL AVE. STRONG EAST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL NOT
ONLY RESULT IN STRONG EAST WINDS BUT PROVIDE A TRIGGER FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. GFS HITTING FAR NW
NM RELATIVELY HARD WITH PRECIPITATION (LARGE AREA OF A HALF INCH
OR GREATER) AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHERE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS. BEST SHOT FOR RAIN IN THE ABQ METRO IS THIS EVENING AS
THE BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES IN.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES IN THE MID RGV AND ABQ
METRO SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. ABOVE MENTIONED CLOSED LOW FILLS AND SHEARS APART LATE-
DAY SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE THAT THE STALLED BACKDOOR FRONT ACROSS
WEST- CENTRAL AND NW NM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A DEPARTING WLY JET
TO GENERATE A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST MOUNTAIN
RANGES TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MOVING E-SEWD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE DOWN DAY OF THE WEEK AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD. 00Z GFS NOW BACKS THE FLOW
ALOFT ENOUGH AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY DEEP CLOSED LOW TO
BRING THE DRYLINE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF IS SIMILAR BUT KEEPS THE DRYLINE NEAR
THE TX LINE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THURSDAY REMAINS LOW BUT
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS INCREASING.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE MODEST WARMING TODAY...COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK. LATE WEEK WARMING AND DRYING AHEAD
DEVELOPING SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AND MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. EXTENDED MODELS INDICATE
THAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS A TRAILING DISTURBANCE STRENGTHENS OVER
SOUTHERN NEVADA WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...HOWEVER BY LATER IN THE DAY...AS THE
UPPER LOW CLOSES OVER ARIZONA CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS WELL AS OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AS A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONT RACES INTO THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT SET OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FRONT STRONGER AND
FASTER THAN CURRENT RUNS AND GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER ARIZONA AND A TIGHT WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND A SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT WILL IMPACT THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS. STILL NOT SURE IF THIS WILL TOP THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...BUT 700 MB FLOW STEADILY INCREASES WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH BY EARLY SUNDAY...IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN AREAL COVERAGE
...AND WILL INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN.

EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE GREATEST
MAGNITUDES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL ZONES BUT ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN. ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. WETTING PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED MOST LOCATIONS BUT WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES.

COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST WITH A TRAILING WEAKER WAVE
CROSSING NORTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES WARM
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DECREASE.

TEMPERATURES INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE AND A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY WITH EXPANDED
COVERAGE TO MORE OF THE WEST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY ON FRIDAY
DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES.

LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND COULD BE IMPACTED BY ANOTHER CLOSED LOW.

VENTILATION TO BE GENERALLY GOOD OR BETTER FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A BROAD AREA OF POOR TO FAIR VALUES EAST ON
MONDAY...AND OVER THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY WHEN A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN STRONG TO DAMAGING EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS AT KABQ. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT KTCC AND
KLVS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  39  55  35 /  30  70  70  50
DULCE...........................  56  31  48  29 /  40  70  70  50
CUBA............................  56  33  48  27 /  60  70  70  40
GALLUP..........................  58  33  50  27 /  60  80  70  50
EL MORRO........................  54  29  45  25 /  60  80  80  50
GRANTS..........................  59  29  48  25 /  50  70  70  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  33  52  30 /  50  60  60  50
GLENWOOD........................  69  36  64  35 /  20  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  49  28  40  23 /  60  70  80  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  36  44  32 /  70  80  70  70
PECOS...........................  56  31  40  29 /  40  80  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  26  39  21 /  60  60  60  40
RED RIVER.......................  38  23  28  19 /  70  90  90  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  20  30  16 /  70  90  90  60
TAOS............................  52  27  42  21 /  50  60  60  40
MORA............................  48  28  31  25 /  80 100  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  36  52  33 /  30  60  40  40
SANTA FE........................  56  35  43  32 /  30  60  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  34  47  31 /  30  60  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  40  50  37 /  20  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  40  51  37 /  10  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  39  55  36 /  10  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  41  55  37 /  20  40  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  66  38  55  34 /  10  40  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  40  54  37 /  20  40  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  69  42  63  36 /  20  20  40  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  32  40  32 /  30  60  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  34  45  33 /  20  50  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  59  31  42  29 /  20  50  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  29  36  29 /  30  70  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  34  46  32 /  20  40  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  39  55  35 /   5  10  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  61  37  46  35 /   5  20  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  44  26  36  27 /  40  60  70  50
RATON...........................  49  27  40  25 /  60  70  70  40
SPRINGER........................  53  28  40  25 /  70  80  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  28  37  26 /  60 100  70  50
CLAYTON.........................  53  32  41  33 /  20  40  60  30
ROY.............................  52  30  39  29 /  30  50  60  40
CONCHAS.........................  63  36  47  34 /  10  50  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  36  44  35 /  20  40  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  34  48  33 /  10  30  50  30
CLOVIS..........................  68  38  46  36 /  10  30  40  30
PORTALES........................  70  39  46  38 /  10  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  38  45  37 /  10  20  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  79  43  54  40 /   5  10  20  10
PICACHO.........................  72  38  47  35 /   5  10  30  20
ELK.............................  67  39  47  36 /   5  20  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ504-506-507-511-518-520-521-524.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT SUNDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300530 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS
OF RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. OTHERWISE...THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY WHEN A
STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN STRONG TO DAMAGING EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS AT KABQ. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT KTCC AND
KLVS BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...945 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WERE JUST CANCELLED.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH PRECIPITATION AS MUCH OF IT WAS CONVECTIVELY AIDED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND MINIMAL.

THIS TREND EXTENDS ELSEWHERE...NOT JUST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. LIGHTNING IS ALSO DIMINISHING...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NEW 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL TRICKLING IN...BUT LATEST MET IS
STILL TOUTING HIGH EAST WINDS FOR ABQ SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS...IT APPEARS THIS
UPCOMING SCENARIO WILL RESEMBLE PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS SUCH AS 01 MAY
1990 AND 29 APRIL 1999. HIGH WIND WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300345 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
945 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WERE JUST CANCELLED.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH PRECIPITATION AS MUCH OF IT WAS CONVECTIVELY AIDED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND MINIMAL.

THIS TREND EXTENDS ELSEWHERE...NOT JUST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. LIGHTNING IS ALSO DIMINISHING...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NEW 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL TRICKLING IN...BUT LATEST MET IS
STILL TOUTING HIGH EAST WINDS FOR ABQ SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS...IT APPEARS THIS
UPCOMING SCENARIO WILL RESEMBLE PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS SUCH AS 01 MAY
1990 AND 29 APRIL 1999. HIGH WIND WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY TERMINAL...EXCEPT FOR
KROW. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KLVS THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BE TRANSIENT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING
OR TEMPO GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300345 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
945 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS WERE JUST CANCELLED.
THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A RAPID DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH PRECIPITATION AS MUCH OF IT WAS CONVECTIVELY AIDED WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY. SOME PASSING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND MINIMAL.

THIS TREND EXTENDS ELSEWHERE...NOT JUST IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. LIGHTNING IS ALSO DIMINISHING...SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED
DOWN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NEW 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL TRICKLING IN...BUT LATEST MET IS
STILL TOUTING HIGH EAST WINDS FOR ABQ SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODELS...IT APPEARS THIS
UPCOMING SCENARIO WILL RESEMBLE PAST HIGH WIND EVENTS SUCH AS 01 MAY
1990 AND 29 APRIL 1999. HIGH WIND WATCH WILL STAY AS IS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY TERMINAL...EXCEPT FOR
KROW. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KLVS THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BE TRANSIENT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING
OR TEMPO GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 292335 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND MAY IMPACT JUST ABOUT ANY TERMINAL...EXCEPT FOR
KROW. SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS THIS
EVENING. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP AT KLVS THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WILL BE TRANSIENT OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME HIGH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS FORECAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN A PREVAILING
OR TEMPO GROUP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 292150
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
350 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE AREA AND ANOTHER STALLS ALONG NEW
MEXICOS WESTERN BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING. LOCATIONS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY AND NIGHT UNTIL THEN...BUT MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALSO
SHOULD ACCUMULATE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A FEW TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. A POTENT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUNCH
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH A VERY STRONG EAST WIND. THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE WIND GUSTS IN THE 55 TO 65 MPH RANGE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FAVORING THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THERE. WILL ALSO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY FOR WHAT COULD BE AN OVER THE TOP WIND EVENT. THE
700 MB FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IS PROJECTED TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT 25 TO 35 KT. WOULD PREFER A STRONGER EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THAT FLOW...BUT MOS FROM VARIOUS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS. THIS SUGGESTS
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT REACHES THE
WESTERN NM BORDER.

BESIDES THE SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...MENTIONED ABOVE...THE
HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO PICKUP SOME
ACCUMULATION ALSO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE WEAKENING UPPER
LOW MAY SHIFT EASTWARD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AS A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY TROUGH OR
UPPER LOW SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING. EVEN IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...MOISTURE RECYCLING UNDER
THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DAILY ROUNDS OF SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN NM WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY
FROM THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES...SHOWERS AND
THE FEW THUNDERSTORMS THAT REMAIN WILL DIMINISH...MOST OF WHICH WILL
DIMINISH BY THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. UNTIL THEN...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE RAIN
WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE ELSEWHERE.

MUCH OF SATURDAY...NM WILL BE IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...THE ONE THAT IS MOVING OUT TODAY...AND THE NEXT SYSTEM
WHICH WILL BE DIVING INTO CENTRAL AZ. DESPITE SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THE INCOMING SYSTEM...AND
REMNANT MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NM. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL ALSO INCREASE
LIFT ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING AND PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND THE MIDNIGHT HOUR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS
TO BE AN OVER-THE-TOP EVENT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
OVER CENTRAL AZ AND 700 MB OVER CENTRAL NM SWITCHING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 30-40 KTS. REGARDLESS...A VERY STRONG TO DAMAGING
EAST WIND EVENT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...PARTICULARLY IN AND AROUND THE ABQ METRO AREA. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT SAT NIGHT THROUGH
NOON ON SUNDAY...THOUGH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DOCKET
SUNDAY...AS WELL AS AT LEAST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PERHAPS MOVING OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE EACH AFTERNOON.
SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
NM...WHICH PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THUS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WED/THURS...AND THEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
PRECIP CHANCES WILL START TO GO UP ONCE AGAIN.

A FEW POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION WILL PLAGUE NE NM ON
SATURDAY...BUT EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.
VENTILATION WILL TREND DOWNWARD EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
SUNDAY...AND MORESO ON MONDAY. POOR VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE FOR
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...AND THE FAR NW...WHILE GOOD
VENTILATION CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VENTILATION WILL BEGIN TO
TREND BACK UPWARD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NM UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ATTM.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NC/NE NM THRU THE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POPCORN-LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM AS WELL. MVFR/IFR IMPACTS SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY FAVOR NC/NE NM.
MEANWHILE...DRY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW...THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  36  62  39  59 /  20  30  50  70
DULCE...........................  30  56  30  51 /  30  40  60  80
CUBA............................  33  55  33  52 /  30  30  50  50
GALLUP..........................  34  58  32  55 /  40  30  50  70
EL MORRO........................  33  55  29  50 /  50  40  50  70
GRANTS..........................  35  60  30  53 /  30  30  40  70
QUEMADO.........................  34  59  35  57 /  40  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  38  70  37  67 /  10  10  20  30
CHAMA...........................  25  49  28  42 /  50  50  70  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  54  37  49 /  40  40  50  70
PECOS...........................  32  55  32  45 /  20  30  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  50  26  42 /  50  40  70  80
RED RIVER.......................  22  38  23  29 /  60  50  70  90
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  42  20  32 /  50  50  70  80
TAOS............................  28  52  27  45 /  40  30  50  70
MORA............................  28  47  30  35 /  30  40  60  80
ESPANOLA........................  34  60  37  55 /  20  30  40  60
SANTA FE........................  34  55  37  48 /  20  30  40  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  58  35  51 /  20  20  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  40  63  42  56 /  20  20  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  65  41  57 /  20  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  67  40  62 /  20  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  66  41  61 /  20  20  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  66  38  61 /  20  20  20  40
RIO RANCHO......................  41  65  41  60 /  20  20  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  43  69  42  67 /  20  20  20  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  56  36  49 /  20  10  40  60
TIJERAS.........................  38  60  37  53 /  20  20  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  59  30  49 /  10  10  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  37  57  30  44 /  10  20  30  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  39  61  34  54 /  20  10  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  67  40  63 /  20   0  10  30
RUIDOSO.........................  39  61  37  53 /  20   5  10  40
CAPULIN.........................  27  43  26  43 /  50  40  50  70
RATON...........................  26  50  27  46 /  40  40  50  60
SPRINGER........................  27  54  28  48 /  30  30  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  31  54  28  45 /  20  30  50  70
CLAYTON.........................  33  54  32  50 /  20  20  30  50
ROY.............................  32  55  30  49 /  20  30  40  60
CONCHAS.........................  37  65  35  56 /  20  20  30  50
SANTA ROSA......................  39  67  35  54 /  10  10  30  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  38  67  32  56 /  10  20  20  50
CLOVIS..........................  40  67  37  54 /  10  10  10  50
PORTALES........................  41  69  39  54 /  10   5   5  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  42  68  38  55 /  10  10  10  50
ROSWELL.........................  48  79  42  63 /   5   0   5  40
PICACHO.........................  43  72  38  57 /  10   5  10  40
ELK.............................  41  68  39  55 /  10   5  10  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ519.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291756 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NM UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ATTM.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NC/NE NM THRU THE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POPCORN-LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM AS WELL. MVFR/IFR IMPACTS SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY FAVOR NC/NE NM.
MEANWHILE...DRY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW...THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...523 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...
AFTER SEEING THE GREATER THAN EXPECTED BLOSSOMING OF PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NM AND WITH THAT WORKING UP TOWARD THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS THERE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AND ALSO EAST SLOPES ZONES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ENDING THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY MUCH SOONER THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE AS THERE WILL
LIKELY EVEN BE SOME MELTING OCCUR BELOW ROUGHLY 9500 OR EVEN 10000
FEET IN BETWEEN THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORN
OR EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT RECONSIDER THAT POTENTIAL.
WINTER WX PRODUCT AND OTHER NEEDED PRODUCT UPDATES TO BE ISSUED
ASAP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291756 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1156 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN NM UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION...A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS/TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN NM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ATTM.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR NC/NE NM THRU THE AFTN
HOURS...THOUGH ADDITIONAL POPCORN-LIKE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN NM AS WELL. MVFR/IFR IMPACTS SHOULD BECOME LESS
WIDESPREAD THIS AFTN...BUT WILL STILL GENERALLY FAVOR NC/NE NM.
MEANWHILE...DRY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW...THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...523 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...
AFTER SEEING THE GREATER THAN EXPECTED BLOSSOMING OF PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NM AND WITH THAT WORKING UP TOWARD THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS THERE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AND ALSO EAST SLOPES ZONES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ENDING THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY MUCH SOONER THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE AS THERE WILL
LIKELY EVEN BE SOME MELTING OCCUR BELOW ROUGHLY 9500 OR EVEN 10000
FEET IN BETWEEN THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORN
OR EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT RECONSIDER THAT POTENTIAL.
WINTER WX PRODUCT AND OTHER NEEDED PRODUCT UPDATES TO BE ISSUED
ASAP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ513>515.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512-527.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291149 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DYNAMIC UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF FOUR CORNERS/NW NM WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL ORGANIZED BANDS OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NC/NE
NM THROUGH THE MORNING. FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A DULCE-SANTA FE-
KLVS-TCC LINE. ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA WILL PERSIST
IN A REGION NEAR THE EC NM/TX LINE. TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME AFT 18Z AS COLD AIR ALOFT ADVANCES EWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE ISOLATED MVFR/IFR IMPACTS WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO NERN NM.  KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...523 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...
AFTER SEEING THE GREATER THAN EXPECTED BLOSSOMING OF PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NM AND WITH THAT WORKING UP TOWARD THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS THERE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AND ALSO EAST SLOPES ZONES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ENDING THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY MUCH SOONER THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE AS THERE WILL
LIKELY EVEN BE SOME MELTING OCCUR BELOW ROUGHLY 9500 OR EVEN 10000
FEET IN BETWEEN THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORN
OR EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT RECONSIDER THAT POTENTIAL.
WINTER WX PRODUCT AND OTHER NEEDED PRODUCT UPDATES TO BE ISSUED
ASAP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-527.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291149 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
DYNAMIC UPPER LOW CENTERED INVOF FOUR CORNERS/NW NM WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY. SEVERAL ORGANIZED BANDS OF PRECIP
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF NC/NE
NM THROUGH THE MORNING. FOCUS FOR SUSTAINED IFR CIGS THRU 18Z WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF A DULCE-SANTA FE-
KLVS-TCC LINE. ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA WILL PERSIST
IN A REGION NEAR THE EC NM/TX LINE. TRANSITION TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME AFT 18Z AS COLD AIR ALOFT ADVANCES EWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MORE ISOLATED MVFR/IFR IMPACTS WITH THE FOCUS MAINLY FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO NERN NM.  KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...523 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.UPDATE...
AFTER SEEING THE GREATER THAN EXPECTED BLOSSOMING OF PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NM AND WITH THAT WORKING UP TOWARD THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS THERE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AND ALSO EAST SLOPES ZONES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ENDING THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY MUCH SOONER THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE AS THERE WILL
LIKELY EVEN BE SOME MELTING OCCUR BELOW ROUGHLY 9500 OR EVEN 10000
FEET IN BETWEEN THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORN
OR EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT RECONSIDER THAT POTENTIAL.
WINTER WX PRODUCT AND OTHER NEEDED PRODUCT UPDATES TO BE ISSUED
ASAP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-527.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291123 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
523 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
AFTER SEEING THE GREATER THAN EXPECTED BLOSSOMING OF PRECIP ACROSS
CENTRAL NM AND WITH THAT WORKING UP TOWARD THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...DECIDED TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS THERE ENOUGH TO QUALIFY
THE HIGHEST ELEVATION AND ALSO EAST SLOPES ZONES FOR WINTER STORM
WARNING CRITERIA. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED ENDING THE WARNING AND
ADVISORY MUCH SOONER THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE AS THERE WILL
LIKELY EVEN BE SOME MELTING OCCUR BELOW ROUGHLY 9500 OR EVEN 10000
FEET IN BETWEEN THE MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE MORN
OR EARLY AFTN...BUT WILL LET DAY SHIFT RECONSIDER THAT POTENTIAL.
WINTER WX PRODUCT AND OTHER NEEDED PRODUCT UPDATES TO BE ISSUED
ASAP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
...WITH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AT KSAF EARLY MORNING. IN ADDITION...
SHORT-LIVED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLVS AND PERHAPS KTCC. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT KGUP BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-527.

&&

$$

43





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290954
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
354 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN A RELATIVELY BRIEF BREAK MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
PRETTY STRONG RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THEN OVER NEW MEXICO...ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. ONE STORM WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...A FEW STORMS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS NORTH AND FAR EAST
NEW MEXICO...DIMINISHING TONIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY...INCREASING RAIN AND AGAIN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SATURDAY AND STRETCHING INTO SUNDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN MONDAY AS
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN. A THIRD STORM IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PROBABLY THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE REALIZED FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH
MONDAY STORM.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SO MUCH WEATHER FCST GRIDS ACTION NEEDED THAT DETAILS NEED TO
BE MINIMIZED FOR TIME DEADLINE CONSIDERATIONS. UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS HAS A SHARP TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SSE FROM IT AND THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF THE STATE. IT IS HELPING GENERATE MORE RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL NM THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. OTHERWISE THE PRECIP COVERAGE
RUNNING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED. SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENE
TODAY...CONTINUING WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT AMTS OF PRECIP...
ESPEC FAVORING THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS ON EAST. ACROSS THE FAR
EAST...HUGGING UP RIGHT ALONG THE TX LINE A FEW STRONG STORMS
STILL POSS TIL MID OR LATE MORN. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WHICH
MADE A LATE EVE RUN FARTHER WEST THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WILL
ERODE SOME BUT NE QUARTER OF NM MAY WELL STAY ON THE COOL SIDE
OF IT AND SO LOWERED TEMPS THERE SEVERAL DEGREES FOR TODAY.
WILL KEEP CURRENT WINTER WX ADVISORY GOING LARGELY AS IS.

SECOND STORM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF TODAYS SYSTEM
WITH LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING SAT AFTN MAINLY ACROSS NW NM AND
NORTHERN MTNS...THEN INCREASING ACROSS MOST OF NORTH HALF OF NM
SAT NIGHT THEN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD SUN THROUGH MON.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER
THE NORTHERN MTNS WITH SNOW LVL AS LOW OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE
LOWER THAN CURRENT SYSTEM. HIGHLIGHTS MIGHT EVEN NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED BY THE NEXT SHIFT OR THE NEXT ONE THEREAFTER. A
STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL RACE S AND W ACROSS THE
ERN PLAINS SAT AND ROAR THROUGH THE GAPS AND PASSES OF THE
CNTRL MTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH. THE BEST QPF WITH THIS
SECOND STORM SHOULD BE OVER THE E AND N.

DRYING AND WARMING TREND FOR TUE THROUGH THU...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST HALF MAINLY TUE AND WED...THEN ANOTHER
STORM COULD IMPACT NM NEXT FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ONLY CONCERN FOR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS /ZONE 108/ AND
EVEN HERE THE ALIGNMENT OF CRITICALLY LOW RH...STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE/HIGH HAINES WILL BE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED PRECLUDING A
RED FLAG WARNING. FINE FUELS ALSO TENDING MORE UNRECEPTIVE.

OTHERWISE... AN ACTIVE SPRINGTIME PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER MUCH ANTICIPATED BOUTS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WETTING PRECIPITATION TO INCLUDE SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE THE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE
SOUTHWARD ON THE PLAINS WHILE THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW TRACKS INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA.  THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR VERY
WINDY/HIGH IMPACT IF NOT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING EAST WINDS FOR THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY CORRIDOR...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS ALSO FOR PLACES LIKE
TAOS.

PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION TODAY. ELSEHWERE...
EXCELLENT VENT RATES CAN BE EXPECTED.  GOING INTO THE WEEKEND...
BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS ON SATURDAY AND MIXING HEIGHTS/VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT FOR ALL BUT PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS.   VENTILATION WILL THEN TREND SHARPLY DOWNWARD IN
THE EAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...AND MOST AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY.   KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS PREVAILING AT KLVS AND KTCC BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
...WITH POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP AT KSAF EARLY MORNING. IN ADDITION...
SHORT-LIVED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLVS AND PERHAPS KTCC. MVFR CIGS
LIKELY WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW AT KGUP BY LATE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  60  35  64  42 /  30  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  55  27  59  33 /  40  20  40  40
CUBA............................  54  30  59  35 /  40  20  30  30
GALLUP..........................  57  32  62  36 /  30  30  30  30
EL MORRO........................  52  30  58  33 /  30  40  30  30
GRANTS..........................  57  32  63  34 /  30  20  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  56  35  62  37 /  20  20  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  66  37  72  41 /  10  10   5   5
CHAMA...........................  47  26  53  30 /  60  20  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  53  34  58  38 /  40  30  30  30
PECOS...........................  55  33  58  34 /  30  10  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  27  54  31 /  60  30  40  50
RED RIVER.......................  39  24  42  26 /  70  40  40  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  22  47  24 /  60  30  50  50
TAOS............................  52  27  56  31 /  40  20  30  30
MORA............................  49  31  53  32 /  50  20  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  59  36  63  39 /  30  10  20  30
SANTA FE........................  54  35  60  38 /  30  10  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  35  63  38 /  20  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  42  66  44 /  30  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  43  68  44 /  20  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  42  70  44 /  20  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  43  69  44 /  20  10  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  41  69  43 /  20  10  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  68  43 /  20  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  68  44  72  45 /  20  10  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  55  37  61  39 /  30  20  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  59  38  65  40 /  30  20  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  58  34  64  34 /  20  10   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  34  61  33 /  20  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  38  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  65  42  69  42 /  10  10   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  58  38  63  38 /  10  20   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  43  29  49  29 /  70  30  40  40
RATON...........................  50  30  53  30 /  60  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  54  31  56  32 /  40  20  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  32  59  32 /  30  10  30  30
CLAYTON.........................  48  35  55  33 /  60  20  20  20
ROY.............................  52  33  56  33 /  40  20  20  40
CONCHAS.........................  65  39  67  40 /  20  10  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  68  40  70  39 /  10  10   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  38  68  38 /  20  10  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  71  41  70  40 /  10   5   5  10
PORTALES........................  72  42  71  41 /  10   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  72  42  71  41 /  10   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  78  46  79  45 /   5   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  69  44  73  41 /  10  10   5  10
ELK.............................  63  40  68  40 /  10  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ510-512>515-527.

&&

$$

43





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