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000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AS WELL AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO ERODE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AROUND 15Z TO 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID DAY AND ONCE DEVELOPED
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. ENOUGH REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEAR A TAOS TO ABQ TO ROSWELL LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER SOUTHERN CHAVES
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA THAT A RATHER
LIMITED CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMP ALOFT. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT COMBINES WITH
WARMER SFC TEMPS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LIGHT NLY
STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MORE STABLE VALLEYS/BASINS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSLATING EWD OVER NM SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT BOTH GFS AND NAM GENERATE A HEALTHY CROP OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
IT SLOWLY S AND SEWD DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A MORE WLY COMPONENT TO STORM
MOTION AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF NM TUESDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER MOST
AREAS. GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO SURGE WWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETREATS EWD INTO
TX WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX LINE AS IT
RETREATS. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONTINUES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN. ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AND A RETURN TO DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.

A BACK DOOR FRONT RACED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS USHERING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND TEMPERATURE DECREASES SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORED THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE DEVELOPED. WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST...VENTILATION
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH MAINLY FAIR VALUES IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPROVED VENTILATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.
MIN RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
ZONES. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

BROAD TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN RH LOOKS TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
VALUES COMMON ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAIN. HIGH HAINES OF SIX
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED MODELS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AS WELL AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO ERODE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AROUND 15Z TO 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID DAY AND ONCE DEVELOPED
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. ENOUGH REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEAR A TAOS TO ABQ TO ROSWELL LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER SOUTHERN CHAVES
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA THAT A RATHER
LIMITED CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMP ALOFT. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT COMBINES WITH
WARMER SFC TEMPS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LIGHT NLY
STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MORE STABLE VALLEYS/BASINS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSLATING EWD OVER NM SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT BOTH GFS AND NAM GENERATE A HEALTHY CROP OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
IT SLOWLY S AND SEWD DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A MORE WLY COMPONENT TO STORM
MOTION AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF NM TUESDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER MOST
AREAS. GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO SURGE WWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETREATS EWD INTO
TX WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX LINE AS IT
RETREATS. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONTINUES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN. ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AND A RETURN TO DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.

A BACK DOOR FRONT RACED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS USHERING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND TEMPERATURE DECREASES SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORED THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE DEVELOPED. WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST...VENTILATION
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH MAINLY FAIR VALUES IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPROVED VENTILATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.
MIN RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
ZONES. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

BROAD TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN RH LOOKS TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
VALUES COMMON ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAIN. HIGH HAINES OF SIX
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED MODELS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301203
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
603 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE FLOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
RESULT IN A FEW MORE HOURS OF GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AS WELL AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO ERODE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AROUND 15Z TO 18Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY MID DAY AND ONCE DEVELOPED
WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO DEVELOP AGAIN EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. ENOUGH REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEAR A TAOS TO ABQ TO ROSWELL LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER SOUTHERN CHAVES
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA THAT A RATHER
LIMITED CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMP ALOFT. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT COMBINES WITH
WARMER SFC TEMPS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LIGHT NLY
STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MORE STABLE VALLEYS/BASINS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSLATING EWD OVER NM SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT BOTH GFS AND NAM GENERATE A HEALTHY CROP OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
IT SLOWLY S AND SEWD DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A MORE WLY COMPONENT TO STORM
MOTION AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF NM TUESDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER MOST
AREAS. GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO SURGE WWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETREATS EWD INTO
TX WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX LINE AS IT
RETREATS. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONTINUES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN. ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AND A RETURN TO DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.

A BACK DOOR FRONT RACED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS USHERING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND TEMPERATURE DECREASES SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORED THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE DEVELOPED. WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST...VENTILATION
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH MAINLY FAIR VALUES IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPROVED VENTILATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.
MIN RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
ZONES. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

BROAD TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN RH LOOKS TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
VALUES COMMON ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAIN. HIGH HAINES OF SIX
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED MODELS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 300918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. ENOUGH REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEAR A TAOS TO ABQ TO ROSWELL LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER SOUTHERN CHAVES
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA THAT A RATHER
LIMITED CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMP ALOFT. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT COMBINES WITH
WARMER SFC TEMPS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LIGHT NLY
STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MORE STABLE VALLEYS/BASINS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSLATING EWD OVER NM SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT BOTH GFS AND NAM GENERATE A HEALTHY CROP OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
IT SLOWLY S AND SEWD DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A MORE WLY COMPONENT TO STORM
MOTION AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF NM TUESDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER MOST
AREAS. GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO SURGE WWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETREATS EWD INTO
TX WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX LINE AS IT
RETREATS. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONTINUES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN. ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AND A RETURN TO DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.

A BACK DOOR FRONT RACED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS USHERING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND TEMPERATURE DECREASES SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORED THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE DEVELOPED. WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST...VENTILATION
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH MAINLY FAIR VALUES IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPROVED VENTILATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.
MIN RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
ZONES. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

BROAD TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN RH LOOKS TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
VALUES COMMON ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAIN. HIGH HAINES OF SIX
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED MODELS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AFTER 1ST ROUND OF SEVERE WX OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE 2ND BATCH
OF -TSRA IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA W/ EMBEDDED -TSRA.
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPE
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KROW. GAP WINDS ENTERING THE RGV CURRENTLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. AWW CRITERIA TO 35KTS AT KABQ MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ISSUANCE. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY EXIT THE EAST AFT SUNRISE SATURDAY. -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AFT 21Z WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  51  87  55 /   5   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  75  39  81  41 /  30   5  20  10
CUBA............................  74  43  81  48 /  20  10  30  30
GALLUP..........................  80  44  84  46 /  10  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  76  44  81  47 /  30  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  77  39  82  45 /  30  30  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  78  48  80  48 /  20  30  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  87  51  86  51 /  20  10  40  20
CHAMA...........................  69  35  74  39 /  30  20  40  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  51  77  56 /  40  20  60  50
PECOS...........................  67  47  77  52 /  30  20  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  69  45  77  49 /  20  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  61  37  67  39 /  30  30  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  36  70  37 /  30  30  60  50
TAOS............................  70  41  77  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  65  43  74  48 /  20  30  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  77  52  83  53 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  71  49  78  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  47  81  51 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  54  83  58 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  79  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  81  52  87  53 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  54  86  56 /  10  10   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  81  51  87  53 /  20  10  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  79  54  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  83  55  87  56 /  20  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  50  79  54 /  20  30  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  73  47  81  55 /  10  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  41  81  45 /  10  10  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  49  79  51 /  20  10  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  51  80  52 /  20  20  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  53  81  55 /  20  50  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  67  44  75  46 /  30  60  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  65  48  77  51 /  10  30  20  30
RATON...........................  70  46  80  48 /  10  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  70  47  80  49 /  10  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  44  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  68  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
ROY.............................  67  51  79  51 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  73  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  73  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  55  84  60 /  10   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  71  54  80  56 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  74  56  81  60 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  57  82  56 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  77  59  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
PICACHO.........................  72  56  81  55 /  20  30  20  10
ELK.............................  69  54  77  55 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT BROUGHT THE RETURN OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
OVER THE STATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE MAY. ENOUGH REMAINING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MUCH DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT FROM NEAR A TAOS TO ABQ TO ROSWELL LINE EARLY
THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OVER SOUTHERN CHAVES
COUNTY AS OF THIS WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA THAT A RATHER
LIMITED CROP OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH
THE RELATIVELY COOL LOW LEVELS AND WARMING TEMP ALOFT. ONE
EXCEPTION SHOULD BE OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONT COMBINES WITH
WARMER SFC TEMPS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION. LIGHT NLY
STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
MORE STABLE VALLEYS/BASINS. DESPITE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRANSLATING EWD OVER NM SUNDAY...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH
THAT BOTH GFS AND NAM GENERATE A HEALTHY CROP OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
IT SLOWLY S AND SEWD DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A
CARBON COPY OF SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS A MORE WLY COMPONENT TO STORM
MOTION AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST OF NM TUESDAY. DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER MOST
AREAS. GFS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. DRYLINE
IS PROGGED TO SURGE WWD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN RETREATS EWD INTO
TX WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TX LINE AS IT
RETREATS. A RATHER STRONG LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO
WINDY CONTINUES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EACH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN. ECMWF
IS MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW...KEEPING A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE...ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD AND DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AND A RETURN TO DRIER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS.

A BACK DOOR FRONT RACED THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS USHERING IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. MOISTURE INCREASES
AND TEMPERATURE DECREASES SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MID MORNING. PRECIPITATION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FAVORED THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING IN SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF HEAVY RAIN.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BUILD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AXIS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
BY SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEATING AND MOISTURE RECYCLING WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SLOW MOVEMENT ONCE DEVELOPED. WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST...VENTILATION
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH MAINLY FAIR VALUES IN
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD LEVELS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND ALL ZONES ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPROVED VENTILATION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
GENERALLY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH
INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.
MIN RH VALUES DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL ZONES ON MONDAY...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 MOST
ZONES. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED ALL ZONES.

BROAD TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. MIN RH LOOKS TO BE BELOW 15 PERCENT...WITH SINGLE DIGIT
VALUES COMMON ALL BUT THE EXTREME EASTERN PLAIN. HIGH HAINES OF SIX
WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD FOR POSSIBLE CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

EXTENDED MODELS NOT REALLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AFTER 1ST ROUND OF SEVERE WX OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE 2ND BATCH
OF -TSRA IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA W/ EMBEDDED -TSRA.
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPE
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KROW. GAP WINDS ENTERING THE RGV CURRENTLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. AWW CRITERIA TO 35KTS AT KABQ MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ISSUANCE. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY EXIT THE EAST AFT SUNRISE SATURDAY. -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AFT 21Z WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  51  87  55 /   5   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  75  39  81  41 /  30   5  20  10
CUBA............................  74  43  81  48 /  20  10  30  30
GALLUP..........................  80  44  84  46 /  10  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  76  44  81  47 /  30  30  30  20
GRANTS..........................  77  39  82  45 /  30  30  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  78  48  80  48 /  20  30  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  87  51  86  51 /  20  10  40  20
CHAMA...........................  69  35  74  39 /  30  20  40  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  70  51  77  56 /  40  20  60  50
PECOS...........................  67  47  77  52 /  30  20  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  69  45  77  49 /  20  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  61  37  67  39 /  30  30  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  36  70  37 /  30  30  60  50
TAOS............................  70  41  77  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  65  43  74  48 /  20  30  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  77  52  83  53 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  71  49  78  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  47  81  51 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  78  54  83  58 /  20  20  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  79  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  81  52  87  53 /  10  10   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  54  86  56 /  10  10   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  81  51  87  53 /  20  10  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  79  54  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  83  55  87  56 /  20  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  50  79  54 /  20  30  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  73  47  81  55 /  10  20  20  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  41  81  45 /  10  10  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  49  79  51 /  20  10  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  51  80  52 /  20  20  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  53  81  55 /  20  50  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  67  44  75  46 /  30  60  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  65  48  77  51 /  10  30  20  30
RATON...........................  70  46  80  48 /  10  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  70  47  80  49 /  10  30  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  44  77  47 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  68  52  81  55 /  10  10  10  10
ROY.............................  67  51  79  51 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  73  55  85  57 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  73  54  85  53 /  10  10  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  74  55  84  60 /  10   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  71  54  80  56 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  74  56  81  60 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  57  82  56 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  77  59  84  59 /  20  20   5  10
PICACHO.........................  72  56  81  55 /  20  30  20  10
ELK.............................  69  54  77  55 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 300536 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AFTER 1ST ROUND OF SEVERE WX OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE 2ND BATCH
OF -TSRA IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA W/ EMBEDDED -TSRA.
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPE
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KROW. GAP WINDS ENTERING THE RGV CURRENTLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. AWW CRITERIA TO 35KTS AT KABQ MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ISSUANCE. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY EXIT THE EAST AFT SUNRISE SATURDAY. -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AFT 21Z WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...939 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE T STORM WATCH HEADLINES AND THE
SEVERE WORDING...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD REDEVELOP A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM MORE BULLISH FOR
SE THIRD OF NM WHILE HRRR MODEL INDICATES MORE THE NE THIRD OR SO
OF THE STATE. ONLY A FEW MODEST SHOWERS UP IN NE AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR REST OF PRE
MIDNIGHT HOURS WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CUTTING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ZONE FCST
PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
LEADING TO A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE BRIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW
LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN A LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300536 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AFTER 1ST ROUND OF SEVERE WX OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THE 2ND BATCH
OF -TSRA IS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AREA OF RA W/ EMBEDDED -TSRA.
GREATEST IMPACTS FROM LOW CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPE
SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR KROW. GAP WINDS ENTERING THE RGV CURRENTLY
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS. AWW CRITERIA TO 35KTS AT KABQ MAY OCCUR
BRIEFLY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ON ISSUANCE. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL VERY
SLOWLY EXIT THE EAST AFT SUNRISE SATURDAY. -SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM AFT 21Z WHERE THE
FOCUS OF THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...939 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE T STORM WATCH HEADLINES AND THE
SEVERE WORDING...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD REDEVELOP A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM MORE BULLISH FOR
SE THIRD OF NM WHILE HRRR MODEL INDICATES MORE THE NE THIRD OR SO
OF THE STATE. ONLY A FEW MODEST SHOWERS UP IN NE AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR REST OF PRE
MIDNIGHT HOURS WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CUTTING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ZONE FCST
PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
LEADING TO A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE BRIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW
LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN A LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 300339 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
939 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE T STORM WATCH HEADLINES AND THE
SEVERE WORDING...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD REDEVELOP A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM MORE BULLISH FOR
SE THIRD OF NM WHILE HRRR MODEL INDICATES MORE THE NE THIRD OR SO
OF THE STATE. ONLY A FEW MODEST SHOWERS UP IN NE AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR REST OF PRE
MIDNIGHT HOURS WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CUTTING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ZONE FCST
PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE BRIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDEAND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
LEADING TO A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE BRIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW
LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN A LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300339 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
939 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REMOVE THE SEVERE T STORM WATCH HEADLINES AND THE
SEVERE WORDING...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD REDEVELOP A
COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT. LATEST NAM MORE BULLISH FOR
SE THIRD OF NM WHILE HRRR MODEL INDICATES MORE THE NE THIRD OR SO
OF THE STATE. ONLY A FEW MODEST SHOWERS UP IN NE AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE. THUS TRIMMED BACK POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR REST OF PRE
MIDNIGHT HOURS WITH LESS SIGNIFICANT CUTTING BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. ZONE FCST
PRODUCT ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE BRIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDEAND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT
LEADING TO A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE BRIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW
LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL RESULT IN A LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 292317
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 292317 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 292317
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 292317 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 292317 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 292317 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS IS OVER EASTERN NM
WHERE A SVR TSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT TIL 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM KCAO SOUTH TO KTCC AND KROW
THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE SE NEAR 20KTS AND EXIT THE
REGION INTO WEST TX. FARTHER WEST...VIRGA SHOWERS ARE CREATING
ERRATIC/GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND THESE WILL DISSIPATE AFT SUNSET.
THE NEXT PERIOD FOR IMPACTS WILL BEGIN AFT STORMS EXIT THE EAST
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SW ALL THE WAY THRU THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT. MORE STORMS...LOCALLY STRONG...WILL FIRE UP AND
BECOME A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY REDUCTION...
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. GAP
WINDS WILL PLOW THRU KABQ BTWN 07Z-09Z W/ AWW GUSTS TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE. AFTER SLOW CLEARING OF IMPACT CONDITIONS IN THE EAST
SATURDAY...MORE STORMS WILL FIRE UP IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN NM.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 292116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEVELOPING SH/TS
BETWEEN GUP AND ABQ/AEG BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND PROVIDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. USING VCSH TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY AND MAY
NEED TO UPDATE WITH TEMPO SH TO INDICATE THE GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO FOR SAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE NE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LTGN/OUTFLOW WIND
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND THE STRONGER NATURE TO THE STORMS. LVS/TCC AND
EVENTUALLY ROW WILL SEE THESE POSSIBILITIES. RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS
AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LVS LATE TONIGHT.
TCC/ROW COULD SEE MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS
LIKELY. AWW WIND FROM THE EAST SHOULD IMPACT ABQ SHORTLY AFTER 6Z.
THINK THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN MODELS
THINK DUE TO TS/SH COLD POOL IMPACT.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  47  84  52  87 /   0   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  37  78  39  80 /  10   5  10  10
CUBA............................  44  77  45  81 /   5  10  10  30
GALLUP..........................  41  81  44  85 /   0   5  10  10
EL MORRO........................  42  78  45  83 /   0  10  20  10
GRANTS..........................  44  78  45  82 /   5  10  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  46  78  47  81 /   0   5  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  52  86  53  86 /   0   5  10  20
CHAMA...........................  36  73  38  75 /  20  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  74  48  79 /  10  50  20  50
PECOS...........................  47  71  46  78 /  40  50  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38  72  40  78 /  30  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  35  65  37  70 /  60  20  40  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  36  67  38  74 /  50  40  20  50
TAOS............................  39  74  41  78 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  42  68  43  76 /  50  40  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  47  76  48  82 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  48  73  48  79 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  75  49  82 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  78  56  83 /  20  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  79  58  84 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  80  54  86 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  79  55  85 /  10  10  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  55  81  55  87 /  10  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  54  78  54  84 /  10  10  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  56  84  56  87 /   5  10  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  73  51  81 /  20  20  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  74  51  84 /  20  20  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  72  47  80 /  20  30  20  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  45  69  48  79 /  50  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  50  74  49  80 /  20  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  76  52  81 /  10  10  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  48  68  47  75 /  40  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  45  68  48  79 /  70  30  20  30
RATON...........................  46  71  46  81 /  70  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  47  70  47  81 /  60  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  66  46  78 /  50  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  49  70  52  81 /  60  20  10  10
ROY.............................  47  69  50  81 /  40  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  53  73  55  85 /  50  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  53  72  54  85 /  40  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  74  56  85 /  60  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  54  71  54  80 /  60  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  55  72  55  81 /  60  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  55  73  56  83 /  50  30  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  59  77  59  84 /  50  30  10   5
PICACHO.........................  54  72  54  80 /  50  30  20  20
ELK.............................  50  72  52  77 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 292116
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. SOME COOLING SATURDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A DOWNTREND IN
THUNDERSTORMS THERE...BUT MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A ROUND OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OVERHEAD AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT LEADING TO
A SEVERAL DAYS WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ROUND OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS INTO
THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES LOWER...BUT WITH MUCH IMPROVED
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SEVERE STORMS ARE IMMINENT. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS JUST ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INITIATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 18Z NAM IS SHOWING A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NE NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WITH RENEWED CHANCES FOR STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS/HIGHLANDS.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WESTWARD LOW LAYER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE FRONTAL LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN A
LATE-DEVELOPING ROUND OF STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 588-589DAM...WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO BRING-ON A RENEWED WARMING TREND.
SLOW-MOVING DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED STORMS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...FOLLOWING NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS. HIGHS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AND DRY WESTERLIES PUNCH IN...WITH A
BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. NEXT
WEEK WILL CERTAINLY FEEL MORE SEASONAL THAN WHAT WE SAW FOR MUCH
OF MAY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER BASED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
IMPACT WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
DRYLINE STORMS OF THE WETTER VARIETY WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GO WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND ACTUALLY ENHANCE IN SPATIAL COVERAGE DUE TO A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONTAL PLUNGE. HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY WILL GET PUSHED
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE FRONTAL PUSH AND MAKE IT TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...PERHAPS A BIT FURTHER.

THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME WETTING RAIN
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MTNS AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGHER ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS COMPARED TO TODAYS RESULTS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
COOL AND BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND
BELOW NORMAL TO THE EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE CENTRAL MTN GAPS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL DEPICTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE
WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TREND DRIER AS THE DAYS
PROGRESS AND LOOK FOR SMALL FOOTPRINTS OF MARGINALLY WETTING RAIN BY
MONDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WOULD REMAIN A CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MUCH LESS BY TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUPPORT THIS
TREND. ECMWF IS A BIT MORE BULLISH FOR DRYLINE STORMS ACROSS THE
EAST ON TUESDAY HOWEVER.

THE SURFACE WIND GRADIENT SHOULD PICK UP DURING THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND ALLOWS THE WINDS
ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN. ABUNDANT MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO DEEP
MIXING AND PROVIDE GUSTIER WIND FLOWS...ESPECIALLY TUES/WED. WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. DRY SLOTTING WILL ALSO
LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITY VALUES AND PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LOCALIZED STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HAINES VALUES WILL START TO SHOW UP DURING THIS
PERIOD ALTHOUGH FUEL CONDITIONS ARENT TOO BAD...ESPECIALLY WITH AN
INFLUX OF GREENUP. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH BASED ON THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS BUT THIS WOULD BE A PATTERN CHANGE OF
SORTS.

ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MAY SHARPEN UP TO THE WEST DURING LATE NEXT
WEEK AND COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ECMWF MODELS APPEARS TO BE MORE BULLISH FOR THAT
TREND VERSUS THE GFS BUT WILL MONITOR. STORMS COULD INITIALLY START
OUT ON THE DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEVELOPING SH/TS
BETWEEN GUP AND ABQ/AEG BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND PROVIDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. USING VCSH TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY AND MAY
NEED TO UPDATE WITH TEMPO SH TO INDICATE THE GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO FOR SAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE NE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LTGN/OUTFLOW WIND
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND THE STRONGER NATURE TO THE STORMS. LVS/TCC AND
EVENTUALLY ROW WILL SEE THESE POSSIBILITIES. RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS
AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LVS LATE TONIGHT.
TCC/ROW COULD SEE MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS
LIKELY. AWW WIND FROM THE EAST SHOULD IMPACT ABQ SHORTLY AFTER 6Z.
THINK THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN MODELS
THINK DUE TO TS/SH COLD POOL IMPACT.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  47  84  52  87 /   0   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  37  78  39  80 /  10   5  10  10
CUBA............................  44  77  45  81 /   5  10  10  30
GALLUP..........................  41  81  44  85 /   0   5  10  10
EL MORRO........................  42  78  45  83 /   0  10  20  10
GRANTS..........................  44  78  45  82 /   5  10  20  20
QUEMADO.........................  46  78  47  81 /   0   5  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  52  86  53  86 /   0   5  10  20
CHAMA...........................  36  73  38  75 /  20  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  74  48  79 /  10  50  20  50
PECOS...........................  47  71  46  78 /  40  50  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  38  72  40  78 /  30  20  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  35  65  37  70 /  60  20  40  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  36  67  38  74 /  50  40  20  50
TAOS............................  39  74  41  78 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  42  68  43  76 /  50  40  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  47  76  48  82 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  48  73  48  79 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  49  75  49  82 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  78  56  83 /  20  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  79  58  84 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  80  54  86 /  10  10  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  79  55  85 /  10  10  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  55  81  55  87 /  10  10  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  54  78  54  84 /  10  10  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  56  84  56  87 /   5  10  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  73  51  81 /  20  20  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  49  74  51  84 /  20  20  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  46  72  47  80 /  20  30  20  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  45  69  48  79 /  50  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  50  74  49  80 /  20  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  76  52  81 /  10  10  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  48  68  47  75 /  40  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  45  68  48  79 /  70  30  20  30
RATON...........................  46  71  46  81 /  70  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  47  70  47  81 /  60  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  66  46  78 /  50  20  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  49  70  52  81 /  60  20  10  10
ROY.............................  47  69  50  81 /  40  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  53  73  55  85 /  50  20  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  53  72  54  85 /  40  20  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  54  74  56  85 /  60  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  54  71  54  80 /  60  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  55  72  55  81 /  60  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  55  73  56  83 /  50  30  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  59  77  59  84 /  50  30  10   5
PICACHO.........................  54  72  54  80 /  50  30  20  20
ELK.............................  50  72  52  77 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291800 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEVELOPING SH/TS
BETWEEN GUP AND ABQ/AEG BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND PROVIDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. USING VCSH TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY AND MAY
NEED TO UPDATE WITH TEMPO SH TO INDICATE THE GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO FOR SAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE NE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LTGN/OUTFLOW WIND
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND THE STRONGER NATURE TO THE STORMS. LVS/TCC AND
EVENTUALLY ROW WILL SEE THESE POSSIBILITIES. RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS
AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LVS LATE TONIGHT.
TCC/ROW COULD SEE MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS
LIKELY. AWW WIND FROM THE EAST SHOULD IMPACT ABQ SHORTLY AFTER 6Z.
THINK THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN MODELS
THINK DUE TO TS/SH COLD POOL IMPACT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291800 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1200 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION THREAT IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DEVELOPING SH/TS
BETWEEN GUP AND ABQ/AEG BY MID AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO THE
EARLY/MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HIT AND MISS AND PROVIDE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. USING VCSH TO CAPTURE THIS ACTIVITY AND MAY
NEED TO UPDATE WITH TEMPO SH TO INDICATE THE GUSTY WINDS. SIMILAR
SCENARIO FOR SAF. STRONGER STORMS WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE NE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CIGS WILL BE A BIT LOWER WITH LTGN/OUTFLOW WIND
BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STRENGTHENS
LATER TODAY...LOWER CIGS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO
RAINFALL AND THE STRONGER NATURE TO THE STORMS. LVS/TCC AND
EVENTUALLY ROW WILL SEE THESE POSSIBILITIES. RESIDUAL LOWER CIGS
AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT LVS LATE TONIGHT.
TCC/ROW COULD SEE MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION BUT NOT AS
LIKELY. AWW WIND FROM THE EAST SHOULD IMPACT ABQ SHORTLY AFTER 6Z.
THINK THE FRONTAL PUSH WILL ADVANCE A LITTLE QUICKER THAN MODELS
THINK DUE TO TS/SH COLD POOL IMPACT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY AND TRANSIENT IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z...AND MAY IMPACT KCQC AND KLVS.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT/FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
EAST THIS AFTN. SCT-NUM STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE/EC NM THIS AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVE...AND ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN CREATING GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS AT KABQ EARLY SAT MORNING. LOW CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY AND TRANSIENT IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z...AND MAY IMPACT KCQC AND KLVS.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT/FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
EAST THIS AFTN. SCT-NUM STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE/EC NM THIS AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVE...AND ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN CREATING GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS AT KABQ EARLY SAT MORNING. LOW CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291148
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY AND TRANSIENT IFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 15Z...AND MAY IMPACT KCQC AND KLVS.
OTHERWISE...A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT/FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
DOWN THE PLAINS THIS MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE
EAST THIS AFTN. SCT-NUM STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE/EC NM THIS AFTN. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
STRONGER PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS EVE...AND ADDITIONAL
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN CREATING GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS AT KABQ EARLY SAT MORNING. LOW CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 290934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  80  48  84  52 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  75  35  75  38 /  10  10  20  10
CUBA............................  77  42  77  45 /  10  20  30  20
GALLUP..........................  79  42  81  45 /  10  10   5   5
EL MORRO........................  78  42  78  45 /  20  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  79  43  78  45 /  10  20  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  80  44  79  47 /  10   5   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   5  10
CHAMA...........................  68  33  69  36 /  30  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  50  71  52 /  30  30  50  40
PECOS...........................  76  42  69  43 /  20  40  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  40  73  40 /  40  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  64  34  63  34 /  50  50  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  33  67  31 /  60  60  50  40
TAOS............................  75  39  73  41 /  30  40  20  20
MORA............................  73  41  66  41 /  60  60  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  81  44  78  47 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  78  47  75  48 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  80  49  77  50 /  10  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  55  78  57 /   5  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  58  80  60 /   5  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  85  52  81  54 /   5  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  53  81  55 /   5  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  53  83  54 /   5  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  82  54  80  56 /   5  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  87  55  84  54 /   5  10  10  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  48  75  49 /  10  30  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  80  51  77  51 /  10  20  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  46  73  45 /  10  30  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  46  69  48 /   5  40  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  50  75  49 /  10  20  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  52  78  51 /   5  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  42  69  45 /  10  60  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  72  44  70  46 /  50  60  20  30
RATON...........................  74  46  72  47 /  50  50  30  30
SPRINGER........................  77  51  73  52 /  50  60  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  45  67  45 /  30  50  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  75  49  71  52 /  50  60  20  20
ROY.............................  74  47  70  51 /  50  60  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  83  55  75  57 /  50  60  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  85  52  73  55 /  20  50  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  55  76  57 /  50  60  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  82  55  73  54 /  50  60  30  20
PORTALES........................  83  58  74  55 /  50  60  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  57  74  56 /  30  50  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  90  59  80  60 /  20  60  30  40
PICACHO.........................  87  55  75  53 /  20  60  30  40
ELK.............................  84  50  72  51 /  10  60  40  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF COLORADO
TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE
THE DRYLINE SEPARATING MOISTURE TO THE EAST FROM DRIER AIR TO THE
WEST WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE SURFACE
FRONT MERGES WITH THE DRYLINE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE EASTERN TIER OF
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF TURNING STRONG TO SEVERE. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
WESTWARD TONIGHT...SPILLING THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
MAKING IT TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...CARRYING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE WEST WITH IT. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
MEXICO BEFORE DRIFTING TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS. AFTER HAVING BRIEFLY
REACHED CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES...THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...STEADILY REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LONGER WAVE TROUGH FEATURE THAT WAS OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST
WEST OF NM HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS DEFINITION IN A RELATIVELY WEAK
FLOW REGIME. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IN CO...AND THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT NOSES SOUTHWARD INTO NM.
THE DRYLINE SHARPENED UP SOME YESTERDAY...AND HAS NOW STOOD ITS
GROUND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL BE A KEY INGREDIENT FOR STORM INITIATION WITH THE CATALYST OF
THE FRONT COMING DOWN AND MERGING TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
WILL SPILL SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE 10 AM...DRAGGING SOUTH ACROSS ALL
OF THE NM PLAINS BEFORE NOON...AND A SECONDARY PUSH...POTENTIALLY
AIDED BY CONVECTION WILL SURGE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT.

FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY UNSTABLE TEMPERATURE
PROFILES IN EASTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY EAST CENTRAL ZONES SUCH AS
CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIFTED INDICES OF
-7 TO -9 C ADVERTISED BY THE NAM ALONG WITH ABOUT 3500 J/KG CAPE.
THE FRONT WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND
COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLIES PREVAIL ALOFT...LEADING TO SUFFICIENT
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SEVERE STORMS.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST...AND POPS WERE ALSO INCREASED BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND THEN OVER ALL
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT. SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST AND THIS COULD
HASTEN DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FRIDAY NIGHT. SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL WANT TO CONSIDER INTRODUCING THIS TO FORECAST.
ALSO...A GAP/CANYON WIND IS POSSIBLE THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AS THE
FRONT PLOWS WESTWARD TONIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON
SPEEDS...BUT CONVECTION EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD ENHANCE THIS
FOR A COUPLE HOURS.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
ADVECTED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PWATS JUMP UP TO 0.6 TO O.75 IN MANY AREAS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE. PLUS...THE ADDITION
OF SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE EAST FACES OF THE DIVIDE AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD ALSO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT. POPS
WERE NUDGED UPWARD A BIT SATURDAY...AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WAKE
OF FRIDAY`S FRONT.

UPSLOPE WOULD BEGIN TO FADE INTO SUNDAY WITH VEERING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND A FEW DEGREES WHILE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...FIRST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
BEFORE DRIFTING SOMEWHAT VARIABLY OVER LOWER ADJACENT TERRAIN.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AS A 588 DECAMETER HIGH IS
ESTABLISHED OVER NM. POPS WERE NUDGED UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY...BUT
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.

MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EASILY BE RECYCLED INTO MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS/STORMS. INTO TUESDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A BIT STRONGER SPEEDS BEING
INTRODUCED AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO BE SQUASHED FARTHER
SOUTH. A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY WORK IN AND
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...SCOURING OUT MOISTURE WHILE THE DRYLINE
IS CARRIED TOWARD THE NM-TX BORDER. THIS DRY AIR WILL PRECLUDE
STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO WEDNESDAY TOO. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WOULD LIKELY NOT SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN VIRGA.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY NUDGING INTO NE NM THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
SLIDE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS BY MID DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY...AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE SANGRES SHOULD PROMOTE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE OK/TX BORDERS.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE. ACROSS THE WEST...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN THE RULE...
THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM. HUMIDITIES SHOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS LOW AS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL SUB-15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH THE
AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST.

THE FRONT WILL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY IT. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG AND BEHIND IT. BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THRU THE GAPS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND WILL BE MAKING A RUN AT THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH HIGHER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OR SO OF THE STATE AS COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING. ALSO...EXPECT GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EARLY SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE CONTDVD EASTWARD ON SATURDAY. MINIMUM
HUMIDITIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL GET A BOOST
AS WELL...EXCEPT NEAR FARMINGTON...WHERE RHS MAY REMAIN CLOSE TO 15
PERCENT.

WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED IN
THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. STORMS SHOULD FIRST FORM OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

BY TUESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. A DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD STARTING TUESDAY BUT
WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THUS...A
DRIER AND PERHAPS BREEZIER PERIOD SHOULD BE ON TAP TUE/WED AND MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...TUESDAY AND BEYOND LOOKS TO BE MUCH DRIER THAN THIS PAST
WEEK....THOUGH WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY FOR MOST AREAS...BUT
WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED IN
THESE AREAS...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENTILATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE WEST. VENT RATES WILL REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY...WITH VERY GOOD OR EXCELLENT VENTILATION EXPECTED TUESDAY
THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  80  48  84  52 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  75  35  75  38 /  10  10  20  10
CUBA............................  77  42  77  45 /  10  20  30  20
GALLUP..........................  79  42  81  45 /  10  10   5   5
EL MORRO........................  78  42  78  45 /  20  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  79  43  78  45 /  10  20  30  20
QUEMADO.........................  80  44  79  47 /  10   5   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  85  50  86  52 /   0   0   5  10
CHAMA...........................  68  33  69  36 /  30  30  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  50  71  52 /  30  30  50  40
PECOS...........................  76  42  69  43 /  20  40  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  40  73  40 /  40  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  64  34  63  34 /  50  50  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  33  67  31 /  60  60  50  40
TAOS............................  75  39  73  41 /  30  40  20  20
MORA............................  73  41  66  41 /  60  60  50  40
ESPANOLA........................  81  44  78  47 /  20  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  78  47  75  48 /  20  30  30  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  80  49  77  50 /  10  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  55  78  57 /   5  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  83  58  80  60 /   5  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  85  52  81  54 /   5  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  53  81  55 /   5  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  53  83  54 /   5  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  82  54  80  56 /   5  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  87  55  84  54 /   5  10  10  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  48  75  49 /  10  30  30  40
TIJERAS.........................  80  51  77  51 /  10  20  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  46  73  45 /  10  30  20  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  46  69  48 /   5  40  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  50  75  49 /  10  20  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  52  78  51 /   5  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  42  69  45 /  10  60  50  50
CAPULIN.........................  72  44  70  46 /  50  60  20  30
RATON...........................  74  46  72  47 /  50  50  30  30
SPRINGER........................  77  51  73  52 /  50  60  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  45  67  45 /  30  50  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  75  49  71  52 /  50  60  20  20
ROY.............................  74  47  70  51 /  50  60  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  83  55  75  57 /  50  60  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  85  52  73  55 /  20  50  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  55  76  57 /  50  60  20  30
CLOVIS..........................  82  55  73  54 /  50  60  30  20
PORTALES........................  83  58  74  55 /  50  60  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  87  57  74  56 /  30  50  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  90  59  80  60 /  20  60  30  40
PICACHO.........................  87  55  75  53 /  20  60  30  40
ELK.............................  84  50  72  51 /  10  60  40  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290548 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 290548
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 290548 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
FOCUS FOR IMPACTS CONTINUES ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO
KTCC THRU 16Z FRI. CONFIDENCE DECREASING ON LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT AS GUIDANCE PULLED BACK ON DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL LEFT AN
INDICATION DURING PREDAWN TO SUNRISE HOURS. A WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE
SW OVER THE EAST FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
LEADING TO LCL STRONG/SVR STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THRU MIDDAY BEFORE
VIRGA DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. POTENTIAL
MODERATE GAP WIND IN STORE FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS THE FRONT
MOVES WEST DURING THE EVENING. TSRA MAY BECOME A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF RAIN/TSRA FRIDAY EVENING WITH LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290136
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 290136 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290136 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
736 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH DEMISE OF BOTH CONVECTIVE WATCHES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND
QUICKLY ADJUST MOST WX PARAMETERS OTHER THAN TEMPS TO MORE CLOSELY
ALIGN WITH RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE REMOVAL OF
THE WATCH RELATED HEADLINES. ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43





000
FXUS65 KABQ 282321 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 282321 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282321 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 282321 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282321
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 282321
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS EXISTS OVER FAR EASTERN NM THRU
ABOUT 03Z. CURRENT SVR TSTORM AND TOR WATCHES WILL LIKELY EXPIRE
ON TIME THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AT 015 EXPECTED
TONIGHT FROM 10Z-17Z FOR KROW. CONFIDENCE AT KTCC NOT AS HIGH SO
WILL LEAVE AT SCT015 FOR NOW. FARTHER WEST...BREEZY WEST TO SW
WINDS UNDER SKC WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING. FRIDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WITH HIGH BASED
-SHRA BY LATE DAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF DRYLINE
CONVECTION ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 21Z.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 282112
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  48  80  49  84 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  38  75  37  78 /   5   0   5  20
CUBA............................  43  78  42  78 /   5  10   5  30
GALLUP..........................  39  79  41  81 /   0  10   5  10
EL MORRO........................  38  78  42  77 /   0   5   5  30
GRANTS..........................  41  79  44  78 /   5  10   5  30
QUEMADO.........................  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  86  51  87 /   0   0   5   5
CHAMA...........................  36  70  36  74 /  10  20  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  78  49  72 /  10  20  10  50
PECOS...........................  46  77  47  69 /   5  20  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  73  39  71 /  20  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  35  66  35  64 /  30  40  50  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  69  36  65 /  20  30  40  50
TAOS............................  38  75  41  72 /  10  20  10  20
MORA............................  43  74  42  67 /  10  20  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  45  80  47  75 /   5  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  48  78  48  73 /   5  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  80  49  75 /   5   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  82  57  79 /   0   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  83  59  80 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  53  85  55  81 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  83  56  79 /   0   0   5  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  53  85  55  82 /   0   0   5  20
RIO RANCHO......................  54  82  55  79 /   0   0   5  20
SOCORRO.........................  54  87  57  84 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  79  50  73 /   0   5  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  50  80  49  74 /   0   5  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  80  47  73 /   0   5  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  48  78  46  70 /   0   0  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  50  81  50  74 /   0   0  10  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  53  83  52  78 /   0   5   5  40
RUIDOSO.........................  51  78  48  69 /   0   5  20  50
CAPULIN.........................  47  71  45  69 /  40  50  50  30
RATON...........................  46  75  46  72 /  30  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  48  76  48  73 /  10  20  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  76  45  68 /   5  20  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  53  75  50  71 /  30  50  50  20
ROY.............................  49  75  47  69 /  10  30  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  54  84  54  73 /   0  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  53  85  53  73 /   0  10  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  84  55  75 /  20  30  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  82  55  73 /  30  20  40  30
PORTALES........................  58  83  57  74 /  30  20  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  56  85  56  73 /  10  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  58  90  59  79 /  10  10  40  40
PICACHO.........................  53  85  53  73 /   5  10  20  40
ELK.............................  52  84  52  72 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282112
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...EXCEPT FOR
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WHEN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN. A DRYLINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH A THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TRIGGERING MORE STORMS LATE FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE LATE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN LATE FRIDAY. THE BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SURGE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. IN
ADDITION...MOISTURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS FUEL
FOR A LATE DAY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING...BUT TRENDING DOWN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH 8PM...BUT THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO THROUGH 7 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT AREA GIVEN STRONGER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
EASTERN LINCOLN AND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES...AND GREATER
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH THE 20Z LAPS SHOWING SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-4500 J/KG...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO -10C AND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE DRYLINE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
MUCH FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THE 12/18Z NAM12 AND LATEST HRRR
SHOW CONVECTION MOVING OFF INTO TEXAS AROUND 00Z. OUR THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION MAY LAST TO NEAR 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OFF OR DIMINISHING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
TRANSITION WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS A DRYLINE SHARPENS UP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. SIGNIFICANT LOW LAYER
CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE AN AIRMASS TRIPLE POINT MAY RESIDE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. LOW LAYER MOISTURE WILL TRANSPORT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT
AS WELL AND WILL ACT AS FUEL FOR LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK NW STEERING FLOW. THUNDER
MAY BE HARDER TO COME-BY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SATURDAY DUE TO TO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES 10
OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THERE.

BY SUNDAY...A DOMINANT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS CAUSING THE WARMING
TREND TO RESUME WITH HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL WEST AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST. ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING
TRIGGERED STORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY...BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD OPEN WEST COAST TROUGH MOVES IN AND
DRYIER AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE
FORESEEN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS ITS AXIS
SLOWLY APPROACHING NM WITH DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE STAYING
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE DRYLINE SHARPENS.
EAST OF THE DRYLINE RH IS QUITE ELEVATED WITH STORM POTENTIAL
LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND SOME LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIKELY
REDEVELOPING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THUS...EXCELLENT
RH RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED IN THE EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. WEST OF THE DRYLINE INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM DEWPOINTS
WILL BE MUCH LOWER IN THE TEENS...20S...AND LOW 30S...INHIBITING RH
RECOVERY.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPILL INTO NORTHEAST NM EARLY
FRIDAY...PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORMS AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE. BY LATE FRIDAY THIS FOCUS COULD SHIFT SOUTH OF I-40
WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES RUN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF AVERAGE AREA
WIDE. THE CENTRAL TO WEST CENTRAL ZONES WILL OBSERVE SOME SUB-15
PERCENT RH VALUES BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE DAY IN THE
NORTHEAST...AND BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL SPILL WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...INDUCING GUSTY CANYON WINDS WITH SOME
SPEEDS PERIODICALLY REACHING 40-45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCALES.

WITH THE FRONT HAVING ADVANCED WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT WESTWARD WITH RH GETTING A BOOST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A BROADER AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
SATURDAY OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RECYCLED INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER NM...AND CONSEQUENTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST. THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST SUNDAY WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY. SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
THEN SLOWLY EEK INTO NM...POTENTIALLY SHUNTING THE DRYLINE EASTWARD.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  48  80  49  84 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  38  75  37  78 /   5   0   5  20
CUBA............................  43  78  42  78 /   5  10   5  30
GALLUP..........................  39  79  41  81 /   0  10   5  10
EL MORRO........................  38  78  42  77 /   0   5   5  30
GRANTS..........................  41  79  44  78 /   5  10   5  30
QUEMADO.........................  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  86  51  87 /   0   0   5   5
CHAMA...........................  36  70  36  74 /  10  20  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  78  49  72 /  10  20  10  50
PECOS...........................  46  77  47  69 /   5  20  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  73  39  71 /  20  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  35  66  35  64 /  30  40  50  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  69  36  65 /  20  30  40  50
TAOS............................  38  75  41  72 /  10  20  10  20
MORA............................  43  74  42  67 /  10  20  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  45  80  47  75 /   5  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  48  78  48  73 /   5  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  46  80  49  75 /   5   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  82  57  79 /   0   0  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  83  59  80 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  53  85  55  81 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  83  56  79 /   0   0   5  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  53  85  55  82 /   0   0   5  20
RIO RANCHO......................  54  82  55  79 /   0   0   5  20
SOCORRO.........................  54  87  57  84 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  79  50  73 /   0   5  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  50  80  49  74 /   0   5  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  80  47  73 /   0   5  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  48  78  46  70 /   0   0  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  50  81  50  74 /   0   0  10  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  53  83  52  78 /   0   5   5  40
RUIDOSO.........................  51  78  48  69 /   0   5  20  50
CAPULIN.........................  47  71  45  69 /  40  50  50  30
RATON...........................  46  75  46  72 /  30  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  48  76  48  73 /  10  20  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  45  76  45  68 /   5  20  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  53  75  50  71 /  30  50  50  20
ROY.............................  49  75  47  69 /  10  30  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  54  84  54  73 /   0  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  53  85  53  73 /   0  10  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  58  84  55  75 /  20  30  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  82  55  73 /  30  20  40  30
PORTALES........................  58  83  57  74 /  30  20  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  56  85  56  73 /  10  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  58  90  59  79 /  10  10  40  40
PICACHO.........................  53  85  53  73 /   5  10  20  40
ELK.............................  52  84  52  72 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL FUEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. A
FEW STRAY AND WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP IN
THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO...BUT THESE
WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS RATHER THAN PRECIPITATION. STORMS
WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. LOW
LAYER MOISTURE WILL THEN POTENTIALLY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS IN THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
INVADE NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCAL POINT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281144 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM. STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BETWEEN AFT
21Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z FRI ALONG AND SE OF A KROW
TO KTCC LINE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 281144 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM. STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BETWEEN AFT
21Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z FRI ALONG AND SE OF A KROW
TO KTCC LINE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281144
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM. STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BETWEEN AFT
21Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z FRI ALONG AND SE OF A KROW
TO KTCC LINE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 281144
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO THE AREA. BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
SHARPEN UP THE DRYLINE ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM. STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BETWEEN AFT
21Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 09Z FRI ALONG AND SE OF A KROW
TO KTCC LINE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  49  81  51 /   5  10  10   0
DULCE...........................  76  41  76  39 /  10  10  10   0
CUBA............................  77  46  77  46 /  10  10  20   5
GALLUP..........................  80  41  80  43 /  10  10  20  10
EL MORRO........................  77  42  78  45 /   5   0  10  10
GRANTS..........................  80  41  80  44 /  10  10  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  79  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  84  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  71  38  71  38 /  20  20  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  46  77  48 /  20  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  77  46  76  46 /  20  10  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  38  74  41 /  10  10  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  64  38  63  37 /  30  20  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  38  69  39 /  30  20  50  60
TAOS............................  75  39  75  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  75  43  74  42 /  30  20  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  82  45  82  48 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  79  48  78  49 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  47  80  50 /   5  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  56  83  56 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  58  84  58 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  56  86  57 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  54  84  55 /   0   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  54  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  83  53  83  54 /   0   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  88  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  52  79  51 /   0   0  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  81  51  82  52 /   0   0  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  47  81  49 /   0   0  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  49  79  47 /  10   0  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  51  81  52 /   0   0   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  55  83  54 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  56  76  50 /  10   0   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  78  47  72  45 /  40  30  60  60
RATON...........................  80  46  75  46 /  30  30  60  60
SPRINGER........................  82  45  79  48 /  30  20  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  44  76  45 /  30  20  20  50
CLAYTON.........................  81  53  73  50 /  60  40  50  60
ROY.............................  81  49  77  48 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  88  53  85  53 /  40  20  30  60
SANTA ROSA......................  88  51  85  54 /  40  10  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  58  84  55 /  50  40  20  60
CLOVIS..........................  80  56  83  56 /  70  40  20  60
PORTALES........................  82  57  84  58 /  60  40  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  57  87  57 /  40  20  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  88  57  92  61 /  30  20  10  30
PICACHO.........................  86  53  86  55 /  30   5  10  20
ELK.............................  82  55  82  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  49  81  51 /   5  10  10   0
DULCE...........................  76  41  76  39 /  10  10  10   0
CUBA............................  77  46  77  46 /  10  10  20   5
GALLUP..........................  80  41  80  43 /  10  10  20  10
EL MORRO........................  77  42  78  45 /   5   0  10  10
GRANTS..........................  80  41  80  44 /  10  10  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  79  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  84  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  71  38  71  38 /  20  20  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  46  77  48 /  20  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  77  46  76  46 /  20  10  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  38  74  41 /  10  10  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  64  38  63  37 /  30  20  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  38  69  39 /  30  20  50  60
TAOS............................  75  39  75  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  75  43  74  42 /  30  20  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  82  45  82  48 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  79  48  78  49 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  47  80  50 /   5  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  56  83  56 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  58  84  58 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  56  86  57 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  54  84  55 /   0   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  54  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  83  53  83  54 /   0   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  88  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  52  79  51 /   0   0  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  81  51  82  52 /   0   0  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  47  81  49 /   0   0  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  49  79  47 /  10   0  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  51  81  52 /   0   0   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  55  83  54 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  56  76  50 /  10   0   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  78  47  72  45 /  40  30  60  60
RATON...........................  80  46  75  46 /  30  30  60  60
SPRINGER........................  82  45  79  48 /  30  20  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  44  76  45 /  30  20  20  50
CLAYTON.........................  81  53  73  50 /  60  40  50  60
ROY.............................  81  49  77  48 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  88  53  85  53 /  40  20  30  60
SANTA ROSA......................  88  51  85  54 /  40  10  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  58  84  55 /  50  40  20  60
CLOVIS..........................  80  56  83  56 /  70  40  20  60
PORTALES........................  82  57  84  58 /  60  40  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  57  87  57 /  40  20  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  88  57  92  61 /  30  20  10  30
PICACHO.........................  86  53  86  55 /  30   5  10  20
ELK.............................  82  55  82  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  49  81  51 /   5  10  10   0
DULCE...........................  76  41  76  39 /  10  10  10   0
CUBA............................  77  46  77  46 /  10  10  20   5
GALLUP..........................  80  41  80  43 /  10  10  20  10
EL MORRO........................  77  42  78  45 /   5   0  10  10
GRANTS..........................  80  41  80  44 /  10  10  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  79  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  84  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  71  38  71  38 /  20  20  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  46  77  48 /  20  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  77  46  76  46 /  20  10  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  38  74  41 /  10  10  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  64  38  63  37 /  30  20  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  38  69  39 /  30  20  50  60
TAOS............................  75  39  75  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  75  43  74  42 /  30  20  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  82  45  82  48 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  79  48  78  49 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  47  80  50 /   5  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  56  83  56 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  58  84  58 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  56  86  57 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  54  84  55 /   0   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  54  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  83  53  83  54 /   0   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  88  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  52  79  51 /   0   0  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  81  51  82  52 /   0   0  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  47  81  49 /   0   0  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  49  79  47 /  10   0  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  51  81  52 /   0   0   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  55  83  54 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  56  76  50 /  10   0   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  78  47  72  45 /  40  30  60  60
RATON...........................  80  46  75  46 /  30  30  60  60
SPRINGER........................  82  45  79  48 /  30  20  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  44  76  45 /  30  20  20  50
CLAYTON.........................  81  53  73  50 /  60  40  50  60
ROY.............................  81  49  77  48 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  88  53  85  53 /  40  20  30  60
SANTA ROSA......................  88  51  85  54 /  40  10  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  58  84  55 /  50  40  20  60
CLOVIS..........................  80  56  83  56 /  70  40  20  60
PORTALES........................  82  57  84  58 /  60  40  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  57  87  57 /  40  20  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  88  57  92  61 /  30  20  10  30
PICACHO.........................  86  53  86  55 /  30   5  10  20
ELK.............................  82  55  82  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL FIRE UP ALONG THIS DRYLINE AND PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST. DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS AND PROVIDE ANOTHER FOCUS FOR
STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SWIFTLY MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SET THE STAGE FOR
ABUNDANT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ON SATURDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND PROVIDE
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND. A GRADUAL BREAK DOWN OF THE
RIDGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE STARTING TO FIRE UP ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DECIDED TO BEEF UP POPS A BIT FOR TODAY TO REFLECT SOME OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS...DRYLINE HAS BEEN SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE EAST AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING
PACIFIC TROUGH AND ENHANCED SW WINDS ALOFT SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE THERE WITH INITIAL LOWER LCL/S. THUS CANT RULE OUT ISOLD
TORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE SE PLAINS. DRIER AIR
WILL INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST. RESIDUAL STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND GRADUALLY LESSEN FROM WEST TO
EAST PAST MIDNIGHT.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A TWEENER DAY WITH THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
STORMS ACROSS THE NE THIRD OR SO. DRIER ELSEWHERE. THE STORM ACTIVITY
WILL CORRESPOND WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND PASSING PACIFIC
WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER AND
FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS
STATE LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT MORE TO REFLECT
THE INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY DUE TO THE WAVE
PASSAGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC CASE TO WATCH OUT FOR...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODELS HAVE BEEN PAINTING
THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
HEAVY RAIN WOULD ALSO BE AN IMPACT DUE TO TRAINING STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS. POSSIBLE ISOLD TORNADO EPISODE FOR THE NE PLAINS.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT.
ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS FRONT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT THE MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATE. THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT MORE BETWEEN THE
ARIZONA STATE LINE AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LOOKED AT STEERING
FLOW CONSIDERATIONS AS WELL. LOWERED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE NE/EC
PLAINS TO REFLECT STABILITY CONSIDERATIONS. THEY MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE LATEST NAM/GFS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS STABILITY ACROSS NE/EC AREAS. THINK THE
GFS NEEDS TO PLACE THE PRECIP BULLSEYE A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE
WEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS. DECIDED TO DO THIS
IN THE QPF GRIDS. COULD BE AN ACTIVE LATE DAY STORM ENVIRONMENT
WITHIN THE ABQ METRO/RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

ALL OF THE MODELS QUICKLY BUILD THE FIRST STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OF THE SEASON OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA ON SUNDAY.
SEEMS A BIT QUICK BUT IS BASED ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE WEST COAST. TIS THE SEASON SO CERTAINLY CANT RULE OUT THE
QUICK RIDGING DEPICTED BY THE MODELS. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE WOULD EVENTUALLY MIX OUT AND LESSEN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FAVORING THE MTNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WOULD ALSO WARM AND WENT
ABOVE SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS/ECMWF BOTH
SOME SORT OF RIDGE BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LIKELIHOOD BASED ON THE TIME OF YEAR. THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS COULD
INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE. WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW LONG IT CAN
STICK.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GULF MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING...BOTH
AS A RESULT OF LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE...BUT ALSO THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION IN
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST AS
DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWNWARD ALONG AND BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS. THIS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS
SEVERE...ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. IT
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SUB-15 PERCENT HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. IN FACT...2 TO 4 HOURS OF SINGLE DIGITS HUMIDITIES
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA... THOUGH HIGH
HAINES WILL PERSIST.

CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN. HIGH HAINES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TAP FOR THE EAST
FRIDAY... THOUGH IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN TWO PARTS. THE INITIAL WIND
SHIFT WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING...AND SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER AROUND
AND BECOME EASTERLY ACROSS NE NM. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GET AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRES.
THEN...FRIDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER PUSH OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS...AND THROUGH
THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EARLY SAT MORNING. MOISTURE ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND MOST AREAS ON ALONG/EAST OF THE
CONTDVD ON SATURDAY.

CONVECTION ON SATURDAY SHOULD WILL LIKELY PUSH THE MOISTURE BACK
WESTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT CLOSE TO THE AZ BORDER. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER AZ AND NM ON SUNDAY...AND SHIFT SQUARE
OVER NM ON MONDAY. WITH THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
HIGH...EXPECT DIURNAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING
THE HIGH TERRAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...PROPAGATING EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENINGS...USING THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DRIER AIR SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...LIMITING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND DECREASE
BEHIND THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY.  VENTILATION SATURDAY
SHOULD RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD IN MOST AREAS.  VENTILATION WILL
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE ITS TREND UPWARD EARLY NEXT
WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  81  49  81  51 /   5  10  10   0
DULCE...........................  76  41  76  39 /  10  10  10   0
CUBA............................  77  46  77  46 /  10  10  20   5
GALLUP..........................  80  41  80  43 /  10  10  20  10
EL MORRO........................  77  42  78  45 /   5   0  10  10
GRANTS..........................  80  41  80  44 /  10  10  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  79  45  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  84  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  71  38  71  38 /  20  20  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  46  77  48 /  20  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  77  46  76  46 /  20  10  20  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  38  74  41 /  10  10  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  64  38  63  37 /  30  20  60  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  38  69  39 /  30  20  50  60
TAOS............................  75  39  75  43 /  10  10  20  20
MORA............................  75  43  74  42 /  30  20  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  82  45  82  48 /  10  10  20  10
SANTA FE........................  79  48  78  49 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  47  80  50 /   5  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  56  83  56 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  58  84  58 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  56  86  57 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  84  54  84  55 /   0   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  54  87  57 /   0   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  83  53  83  54 /   0   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  88  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  52  79  51 /   0   0  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  81  51  82  52 /   0   0  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  47  81  49 /   0   0  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  49  79  47 /  10   0  10  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  51  81  52 /   0   0   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  55  83  54 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  76  56  76  50 /  10   0   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  78  47  72  45 /  40  30  60  60
RATON...........................  80  46  75  46 /  30  30  60  60
SPRINGER........................  82  45  79  48 /  30  20  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  44  76  45 /  30  20  20  50
CLAYTON.........................  81  53  73  50 /  60  40  50  60
ROY.............................  81  49  77  48 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  88  53  85  53 /  40  20  30  60
SANTA ROSA......................  88  51  85  54 /  40  10  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  58  84  55 /  50  40  20  60
CLOVIS..........................  80  56  83  56 /  70  40  20  60
PORTALES........................  82  57  84  58 /  60  40  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  57  87  57 /  40  20  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  88  57  92  61 /  30  20  10  30
PICACHO.........................  86  53  86  55 /  30   5  10  20
ELK.............................  82  55  82  53 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 280552 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280552
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME CHANGES THIS TAF CYCLE WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA
AND LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM. MODEL DIFFERENCES
MAKING IT A CHALLENGE AGAINST CONCEPTUAL MODELS. LEANING FORECAST
TOWARD STORMS AT KROW AS UPPER FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND MOIST INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE. CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRYING AND THINNING
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THURSDAY. TOMORROW WILL FEATURE TRENDING
WINDS UPWARD INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY FROM THE HIGH PLAINS WEST.
THIS WILL ONLY SHARPEN THE DRYLINE MORE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE TX STATE LINE AFT 22Z. LOW CLOUDS
MAY REDEVELOP IN THE EAST BEHIND TSRA HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 272349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS TONIGHT AS ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING ARE
FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NW FROM TEXAS. ANY STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH LCL HVY RAIN...HIGH WINDS...AND HAIL THE THREATS. MAIN
FOCUS AREA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO KCVN. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL STRETCH FROM KTCC TO
KROW AFT 08Z. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 17Z WITH A GENERALLY
TRANQUIL DAY ON TAP ALL AREAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE AFT 22Z HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF VCTS FOR KROW/KTCC AT THIS TIME.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS TONIGHT AS ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING ARE
FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NW FROM TEXAS. ANY STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH LCL HVY RAIN...HIGH WINDS...AND HAIL THE THREATS. MAIN
FOCUS AREA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO KCVN. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL STRETCH FROM KTCC TO
KROW AFT 08Z. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 17Z WITH A GENERALLY
TRANQUIL DAY ON TAP ALL AREAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE AFT 22Z HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF VCTS FOR KROW/KTCC AT THIS TIME.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS TONIGHT AS ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING ARE
FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NW FROM TEXAS. ANY STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH LCL HVY RAIN...HIGH WINDS...AND HAIL THE THREATS. MAIN
FOCUS AREA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO KCVN. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL STRETCH FROM KTCC TO
KROW AFT 08Z. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 17Z WITH A GENERALLY
TRANQUIL DAY ON TAP ALL AREAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE AFT 22Z HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF VCTS FOR KROW/KTCC AT THIS TIME.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 272349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST THRU SUNRISE THURSDAY. EASTERN AREAS WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR AVIATION IMPACTS TONIGHT AS ISOLD TSRA THIS EVENING ARE
FOLLOWED BY LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NW FROM TEXAS. ANY STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WITH LCL HVY RAIN...HIGH WINDS...AND HAIL THE THREATS. MAIN
FOCUS AREA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM KROW TO KCVN. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS IN LOW CLOUDS WILL STRETCH FROM KTCC TO
KROW AFT 08Z. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 17Z WITH A GENERALLY
TRANQUIL DAY ON TAP ALL AREAS. THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE AFT 22Z HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF VCTS FOR KROW/KTCC AT THIS TIME.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL. 11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 272113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS OF
NEW MEXICO. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL EVENINGS WHERE A
DRYLINE AND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PLAYERS. THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SOUTHWEST PROGRESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST CANYON
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
SURGE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY AND RESULT IN A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER GENERALLY
GARDEN VARIETY...WITH THE 20Z LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWING THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FURTHER EAST NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDICES RANGE FROM -3 TO -6C. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE
OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...BUT A PULSE SEVERE STORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR A FAIRLY RAPID
CONVECTIVE DOWNTREND THIS EVENING COINCIDING WITH A LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT`S.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ON APPROACH FROM OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA AND THE BAJA PENINSULA...WILL CONTINUE WEST AND PUSH OVER
THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS UPPER AIR FEATURE AND A
RESURGENCE OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE
UPDATED SPC DAY2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK BACKED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS. LOCALES NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER WHERE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY.

THE WARMING WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO
PLACE AND INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE AND GULF MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
LIFT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RESULT IN GUSTY EAST
CANYON/GAP WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE AND UPPER TULAROSA VALLEYS. THE
FRONT WILL ALSO TRANSPORT LOW LAYER MOISTURE TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SATURDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE AS FUEL FOR LATE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT STORMS WITH IMPROVED COVERAGE CENTRAL AREAS.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND TO RESUME SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE BY MONDAY. THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SPINNING-
UP A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE IN THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF
THE BAJA LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN WANDER IT NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ALSO SHOW A TROUGH
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THEN PROGRESSING
EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TROUGH TO PULL TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE YET-TO-MATERIALIZE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT. TIME WILL TELL.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL HELP KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY. AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHERLY WINDS
STRENGTHEN AND BRING UP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MOISTURE SURGE WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO
PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY TO ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG/NEAR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GULF MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTER PLAINS AS THE
DRYLINE REMAINS WEST OF THE TX LINE FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION THERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO GET A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
GOING WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH REGARD TO A STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
LATE-DAY FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COOLER AIR WILL RESULT IN A
DELAYED START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ON BOARD WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND...HOWEVER...FOR A ROUND OF SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS A CLASSIC SET
UP FOR STORMS COMING OFF THE SANGRES AND PROPAGATING EAST-SOUTHEAST
OUT ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF
NM LATE DAY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT GFS CONTINUES TO KEEP ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
DECREASE MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH
HAINES VALUES ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FIRE WEATHER
ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SOME BUT STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
28/00Z. GULF MOISTURE PROGGED TO SURGE BACK NORTH AND NWWD OVER
SE NM PLAINS TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE SERN PLAINS INCLUDING KROW AFTER 28/06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 28/16Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  48  81  49  82 /   0   5   0   5
DULCE...........................  41  77  43  77 /  20   5  10  10
CUBA............................  44  78  45  79 /  10   5   5  20
GALLUP..........................  41  80  42  81 /   0   5   0   5
EL MORRO........................  40  78  41  79 /   5   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  42  81  42  81 /   5   5   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  44  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  85  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  39  73  39  73 /  30  10  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  50  78  49  78 /  10  20   5  20
PECOS...........................  48  77  47  77 /   5   5   5  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  42  73  41  73 /  20  10  10  40
RED RIVER.......................  37  66  38  66 /  30  20  20  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  38  70  39  69 /  20  20  10  50
TAOS............................  39  75  40  75 /  10  10  10  10
MORA............................  46  74  44  74 /  20  20  10  50
ESPANOLA........................  48  81  48  81 /   5   5   5  10
SANTA FE........................  49  79  49  79 /   0   5   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  47  81  48  81 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  83  56  84 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  84  57  85 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  54  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  84  55  85 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  53  86  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  54  84  54  84 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  53  87  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  50  79  51  80 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  51  80  50  81 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  45  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  49  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  51  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  52  82  54  84 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  76  51  78 /  20  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  47  78  48  73 /  30  40  30  60
RATON...........................  45  79  47  75 /  20  20  30  40
SPRINGER........................  47  80  48  76 /  20  20  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  48  78  45  75 /  10   5   5  20
CLAYTON.........................  55  82  54  76 /  20  30  40  40
ROY.............................  52  79  50  75 /  20  30  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  57  84  54  82 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  56  84  52  83 /  20  30   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  85  57  83 /  30  30  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  58  81  55  81 /  30  50  40   5
PORTALES........................  59  82  57  82 /  30  40  40   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  58  84  55  85 /  20  20  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  59  88  58  91 /  30  30  20   5
PICACHO.........................  53  84  52  86 /  20  30   5   0
ELK.............................  54  81  52  84 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 271738
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1138 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SOME BUT STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
28/00Z. GULF MOISTURE PROGGED TO SURGE BACK NORTH AND NWWD OVER
SE NM PLAINS TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE SERN PLAINS INCLUDING KROW AFTER 28/06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 28/16Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE GREATEST DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
THEN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
BUT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LESS OF A LULL IN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THAN EXPECTED...AND DON/T
REALLY SEE A TREND TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO WESTERN NM. HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED AGAIN AND SPC
OUTLOOK PAINTED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE FAR EASTERN NM BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...AND LEVEL OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MORE ACTIVE
IN THE PLAINS...AND OUTLOOK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A
BIT LARGER IN AREAL COVERAGE...STRETCHING MAINLY FROM THE PECOS
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN NM/TX BORDER.

THE NORTHEAST QUARTER IS FEATURED ON FRIDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AS THE FRONT STARTS TO DROP INTO THE REGION...AND THEN
PLUNGES SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. AN EAST WIND INTO THE
RGV IS SHOWING UP IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN
ON SATURDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY TWEAKED POPS UPWARD.

SUNDAY LOOKS LESS ACTIVE AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HEATING PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS ATTEMPTING TO BE
ALL IT CAN BE BY DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE FORECAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO DEVELOP A MOISTURE TAP AS WELL...BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS..AND
HOLDS TO STORM CENTER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE
STATE.  WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THOUGH
WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES...THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL
CRITERIA.  STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND WINDING UP GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL FEEL WARM COMPARED TO OUR SUB-AVERAGE TEMPS AS OF
LATE.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY...AND HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW
HOURS. MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE QUITE THE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN A STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT...AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BEHIND IT...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
SAT MORNING AND MAKE IT AT LEAST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...IF NOT
FURTHER...BY MID DAY. THIS WILL MEAN AN ACTIVE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...AND AN ACTIVE SATURDAY...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY IF
A SUBTLE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AS WELL. CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY.

BY LATE SATURDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER
NM...TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DECREASE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
VENT RATES SHOULD REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AND BE GOOD OR BETTER AGAIN
BY MONDAY. ALSO LOOK FOR HIGH HAINES WED-FRI ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 271738 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1138 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SOME BUT STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
28/00Z. GULF MOISTURE PROGGED TO SURGE BACK NORTH AND NWWD OVER
SE NM PLAINS TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE SERN PLAINS INCLUDING KROW AFTER 28/06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 28/16Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE GREATEST DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
THEN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
BUT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LESS OF A LULL IN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THAN EXPECTED...AND DON/T
REALLY SEE A TREND TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO WESTERN NM. HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED AGAIN AND SPC
OUTLOOK PAINTED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE FAR EASTERN NM BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...AND LEVEL OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MORE ACTIVE
IN THE PLAINS...AND OUTLOOK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A
BIT LARGER IN AREAL COVERAGE...STRETCHING MAINLY FROM THE PECOS
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN NM/TX BORDER.

THE NORTHEAST QUARTER IS FEATURED ON FRIDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AS THE FRONT STARTS TO DROP INTO THE REGION...AND THEN
PLUNGES SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. AN EAST WIND INTO THE
RGV IS SHOWING UP IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN
ON SATURDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY TWEAKED POPS UPWARD.

SUNDAY LOOKS LESS ACTIVE AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HEATING PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS ATTEMPTING TO BE
ALL IT CAN BE BY DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE FORECAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO DEVELOP A MOISTURE TAP AS WELL...BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS..AND
HOLDS TO STORM CENTER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE
STATE.  WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THOUGH
WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES...THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL
CRITERIA.  STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND WINDING UP GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL FEEL WARM COMPARED TO OUR SUB-AVERAGE TEMPS AS OF
LATE.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY...AND HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW
HOURS. MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE QUITE THE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN A STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT...AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BEHIND IT...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
SAT MORNING AND MAKE IT AT LEAST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...IF NOT
FURTHER...BY MID DAY. THIS WILL MEAN AN ACTIVE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...AND AN ACTIVE SATURDAY...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY IF
A SUBTLE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AS WELL. CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY.

BY LATE SATURDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER
NM...TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DECREASE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
VENT RATES SHOULD REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AND BE GOOD OR BETTER AGAIN
BY MONDAY. ALSO LOOK FOR HIGH HAINES WED-FRI ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271738 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1138 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT-TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY.
PLENTIFUL HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SOME BUT STILL EXPECTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FAVORING THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL INCREASE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER
28/00Z. GULF MOISTURE PROGGED TO SURGE BACK NORTH AND NWWD OVER
SE NM PLAINS TONIGHT. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER
THE SERN PLAINS INCLUDING KROW AFTER 28/06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 28/16Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
THE GREATEST DEVIATION FROM AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS
THEN WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE SUNDAY
BUT POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LESS OF A LULL IN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY THAN EXPECTED...AND DON/T
REALLY SEE A TREND TOWARD LESS ACTIVITY TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER TO WESTERN NM. HIGHER TERRAIN FAVORED AGAIN AND SPC
OUTLOOK PAINTED THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ALONG THE FAR EASTERN NM BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
TODAY...AND LEVEL OFF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN PLAINS. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS MORE ACTIVE
IN THE PLAINS...AND OUTLOOK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A
BIT LARGER IN AREAL COVERAGE...STRETCHING MAINLY FROM THE PECOS
VALLEY TO THE EASTERN NM/TX BORDER.

THE NORTHEAST QUARTER IS FEATURED ON FRIDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION AS THE FRONT STARTS TO DROP INTO THE REGION...AND THEN
PLUNGES SOUTH AND WESTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. AN EAST WIND INTO THE
RGV IS SHOWING UP IN THE GUIDANCE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN
ON SATURDAY...AND CONSEQUENTLY TWEAKED POPS UPWARD.

SUNDAY LOOKS LESS ACTIVE AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND HEATING PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GFS ATTEMPTING TO BE
ALL IT CAN BE BY DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE FORECAST TROPICAL
SYSTEM NEXT WEEK INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM. THE ECMWF APPEARS
TO DEVELOP A MOISTURE TAP AS WELL...BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS..AND
HOLDS TO STORM CENTER TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
TODAY...RESULTING IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE NE CORNER OF THE
STATE.  WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE NM/TX BORDER...COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...THOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO
OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NM TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HUMIDITIES TO FALL
BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THOUGH
WINDS MAY BE BREEZY AT TIMES...THEY SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITICAL
CRITERIA.  STILL LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER
YESTERDAYS READINGS...AND WINDING UP GENERALLY WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF
NORMAL. THIS WILL FEEL WARM COMPARED TO OUR SUB-AVERAGE TEMPS AS OF
LATE.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY...AND HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A FEW
HOURS. MEANWHILE...IT WILL BE QUITE THE DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
EAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT GULF MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE
WEST...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN A STRONGER PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT...AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BEHIND IT...SHOULD PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
SAT MORNING AND MAKE IT AT LEAST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...IF NOT
FURTHER...BY MID DAY. THIS WILL MEAN AN ACTIVE FRIDAY ACROSS THE
EAST...AND AN ACTIVE SATURDAY...JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY IF
A SUBTLE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AS WELL. CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES
ACROSS THE WEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY HIGHER
HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY.

BY LATE SATURDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER
NM...TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH IT. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VENTILATION RATES REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
DECREASE SATURDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
VENT RATES SHOULD REBOUND SOME ON SUNDAY AND BE GOOD OR BETTER AGAIN
BY MONDAY. ALSO LOOK FOR HIGH HAINES WED-FRI ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





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