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000
FXUS65 KABQ 312341 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...EXPANDING INTO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
EVENING. TAFS WRITTEN WITH VCTS GROUP AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VCSH PLACE HOLDING FOR LEADING OR
TRAILING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR LONGER PERIODS. EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL FALL TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS IN
TAF FOR LVS...AND MT OBSCURATION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. REPEAT CONVECTIVE PERFORMANCE FOR
FRIDAY...WITH INITIATION WEST AND CENTRAL AND EXPANSION INTO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UP SLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWN TICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

33/52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 312341 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN CONTINUING WELL INTO THE EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM...EXPANDING INTO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
EVENING. TAFS WRITTEN WITH VCTS GROUP AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VCSH PLACE HOLDING FOR LEADING OR
TRAILING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR LONGER PERIODS. EAST SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL FALL TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOW CIGS IN
TAF FOR LVS...AND MT OBSCURATION ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. REPEAT CONVECTIVE PERFORMANCE FOR
FRIDAY...WITH INITIATION WEST AND CENTRAL AND EXPANSION INTO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UP SLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWN TICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

33/52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 312120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  62  86 /  20  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  51  81  51  82 /  40  50  40  40
CUBA............................  55  79  53  76 /  50  60  50  40
GALLUP..........................  58  84  58  81 /  30  40  40  30
EL MORRO........................  54  76  53  73 /  50  60  50  40
GRANTS..........................  56  79  55  76 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  57  76  56  74 /  50  50  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  80 /  30  40  50  50
CHAMA...........................  47  74  45  76 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  72  54  71 /  60  60  60  50
PECOS...........................  54  68  51  67 /  80  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  71  49  72 /  50  70  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  42  63  42  61 /  50  80  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  67  43  65 /  50  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  73  50  72 /  50  60  50  40
MORA............................  51  68  48  66 /  60  70  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  57  77  57  78 /  50  40  50  30
SANTA FE........................  57  72  55  72 /  60  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  75  56  75 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  78  61  76 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  81  63  78 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  82  59  80 /  40  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  84  60  80 /  40  40  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  83  62  79 /  40  40  50  30
RIO RANCHO......................  64  84  62  82 /  40  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  66  85  63  82 /  50  40  50  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  77  55  74 /  60  60  60  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  77  57  75 /  60  60  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  79  54  77 /  80  60  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  72  54  69 /  80  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  75  57  72 /  60  60  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  79  60  78 /  50  50  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  52  72  50  71 /  50  70  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  55  67  52  69 /  50  60  70  50
RATON...........................  56  71  55  73 /  60  50  60  40
SPRINGER........................  56  72  57  73 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  70  52  68 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  78 /  20  20  60  20
ROY.............................  58  71  58  70 /  50  50  70  40
CONCHAS.........................  62  79  61  76 /  30  40  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  62  78  59  75 /  40  50  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  80  61  78 /  20  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  59  77  59  76 /  10  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  60  80  61  79 /  10  20  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  78  63  76 /  30  30  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  67  83  65  82 /  30  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  63  77  60  74 /  50  50  50  40
ELK.............................  58  72  55  70 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 312120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  62  86 /  20  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  51  81  51  82 /  40  50  40  40
CUBA............................  55  79  53  76 /  50  60  50  40
GALLUP..........................  58  84  58  81 /  30  40  40  30
EL MORRO........................  54  76  53  73 /  50  60  50  40
GRANTS..........................  56  79  55  76 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  57  76  56  74 /  50  50  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  80 /  30  40  50  50
CHAMA...........................  47  74  45  76 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  72  54  71 /  60  60  60  50
PECOS...........................  54  68  51  67 /  80  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  71  49  72 /  50  70  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  42  63  42  61 /  50  80  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  67  43  65 /  50  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  73  50  72 /  50  60  50  40
MORA............................  51  68  48  66 /  60  70  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  57  77  57  78 /  50  40  50  30
SANTA FE........................  57  72  55  72 /  60  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  75  56  75 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  78  61  76 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  81  63  78 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  82  59  80 /  40  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  84  60  80 /  40  40  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  83  62  79 /  40  40  50  30
RIO RANCHO......................  64  84  62  82 /  40  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  66  85  63  82 /  50  40  50  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  77  55  74 /  60  60  60  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  77  57  75 /  60  60  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  79  54  77 /  80  60  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  72  54  69 /  80  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  75  57  72 /  60  60  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  79  60  78 /  50  50  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  52  72  50  71 /  50  70  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  55  67  52  69 /  50  60  70  50
RATON...........................  56  71  55  73 /  60  50  60  40
SPRINGER........................  56  72  57  73 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  70  52  68 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  78 /  20  20  60  20
ROY.............................  58  71  58  70 /  50  50  70  40
CONCHAS.........................  62  79  61  76 /  30  40  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  62  78  59  75 /  40  50  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  80  61  78 /  20  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  59  77  59  76 /  10  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  60  80  61  79 /  10  20  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  78  63  76 /  30  30  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  67  83  65  82 /  30  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  63  77  60  74 /  50  50  50  40
ELK.............................  58  72  55  70 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311732
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 311732
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311204 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 311204 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 310948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  62  88  62 /  10  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  82  52  83  51 /  10  40  50  40
CUBA............................  80  55  81  53 /  60  50  60  50
GALLUP..........................  87  57  85  57 /  10  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  83  54  77  52 /  50  50  50  40
GRANTS..........................  85  55  80  53 /  40  60  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  57  76  54 /  50  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  58  82  55 /  20  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  47  76  45 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  57  72  52 /  30  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  73  53  67  49 /  50  50  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  51  71  48 /  20  50  70  60
RED RIVER.......................  60  43  62  40 /  50  50  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  43  67  42 /  50  50  70  70
TAOS............................  76  51  72  49 /  10  50  60  50
MORA............................  71  51  68  48 /  50  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  81  58  76  56 /  10  50  40  50
SANTA FE........................  77  58  70  54 /  20  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  75  55 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  62  78  59 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  65  80  62 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  63  84  61 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  62  84  60 /  10  40  40  50
RIO RANCHO......................  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  90  66  86  62 /  10  40  40  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  59  78  56 /  30  50  60  60
TIJERAS.........................  79  59  76  55 /  20  50  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  56  72  54 /  30  50  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  56  71  53 /  40  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  59  77  56 /  30  50  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  80  61  76  57 /  20  50  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  76  53  75  49 /  50  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  71  55  68  54 /  50  50  60  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  56 /  50  50  50  60
SPRINGER........................  76  57  72  57 /  40  50  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  54  69  52 /  60  50  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  77  62 /   5  20  20  40
ROY.............................  75  59  71  58 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  82  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  79  62  79  61 /  20  40  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  63  79  64 /   5  20  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  79  60  76  60 /   5  20  20  30
PORTALES........................  81  61  79  61 /   5  20  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  63  77  62 /  10  30  30  50
ROSWELL.........................  85  67  82  63 /  20  30  20  40
PICACHO.........................  80  62  76  58 /  30  40  50  50
ELK.............................  75  58  73  53 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  62  88  62 /  10  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  82  52  83  51 /  10  40  50  40
CUBA............................  80  55  81  53 /  60  50  60  50
GALLUP..........................  87  57  85  57 /  10  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  83  54  77  52 /  50  50  50  40
GRANTS..........................  85  55  80  53 /  40  60  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  57  76  54 /  50  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  58  82  55 /  20  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  47  76  45 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  57  72  52 /  30  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  73  53  67  49 /  50  50  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  51  71  48 /  20  50  70  60
RED RIVER.......................  60  43  62  40 /  50  50  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  43  67  42 /  50  50  70  70
TAOS............................  76  51  72  49 /  10  50  60  50
MORA............................  71  51  68  48 /  50  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  81  58  76  56 /  10  50  40  50
SANTA FE........................  77  58  70  54 /  20  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  75  55 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  62  78  59 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  65  80  62 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  63  84  61 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  62  84  60 /  10  40  40  50
RIO RANCHO......................  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  90  66  86  62 /  10  40  40  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  59  78  56 /  30  50  60  60
TIJERAS.........................  79  59  76  55 /  20  50  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  56  72  54 /  30  50  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  56  71  53 /  40  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  59  77  56 /  30  50  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  80  61  76  57 /  20  50  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  76  53  75  49 /  50  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  71  55  68  54 /  50  50  60  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  56 /  50  50  50  60
SPRINGER........................  76  57  72  57 /  40  50  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  54  69  52 /  60  50  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  77  62 /   5  20  20  40
ROY.............................  75  59  71  58 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  82  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  79  62  79  61 /  20  40  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  63  79  64 /   5  20  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  79  60  76  60 /   5  20  20  30
PORTALES........................  81  61  79  61 /   5  20  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  63  77  62 /  10  30  30  50
ROSWELL.........................  85  67  82  63 /  20  30  20  40
PICACHO.........................  80  62  76  58 /  30  40  50  50
ELK.............................  75  58  73  53 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 310540 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.


SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33/52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310540 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.


SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33/52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 310255 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 310255 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 302342 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

33/52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 302113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  63  89 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  78  53  79 /  40  10  40  50
CUBA............................  55  81  55  82 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  80  54  79 /  30  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  83  57  82 /  40  40  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  57  80 /  30  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  88  59  87 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  48  74  47  75 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  75  56  75 /  60  30  50  60
PECOS...........................  54  72  53  72 /  70  50  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  51  73 /  70  20  50  70
RED RIVER.......................  43  64  44  63 /  70  50  50  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  43  68 /  70  40  50  70
TAOS............................  52  74  52  75 /  40  10  50  60
MORA............................  51  70  50  70 /  70  50  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  80  58  80 /  50  10  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  20  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  78  59  79 /  40  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  82  63  81 /  30  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  66  83 /  30  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  61  85 /  40  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  86  62  85 /  40  10  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  66  89  66  86 /  30  10  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  58  77 /  40  30  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  79  59  79 /  40  20  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  56  81 /  60  30  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  73  57  73 /  60  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  59  76 /  60  30  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  62  80 /  20  10  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  74  53  72 /  50  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  53  70  54  70 /  60  30  50  60
RATON...........................  55  73  56  73 /  60  30  50  50
SPRINGER........................  56  74  58  75 /  60  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  72  54  71 /  60  40  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  56  77  59  78 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  56  74  59  73 /  60  20  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  61  80  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  79  62  77 /  50  20  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  81  62  82 /  30   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  78  60  79 /  40   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  61  81 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  80  64  78 /  40  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  65  84  67  83 /  40  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  78  63  75 /  50  20  40  50
ELK.............................  58  74  58  70 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  63  89 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  78  53  79 /  40  10  40  50
CUBA............................  55  81  55  82 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  80  54  79 /  30  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  83  57  82 /  40  40  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  57  80 /  30  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  88  59  87 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  48  74  47  75 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  75  56  75 /  60  30  50  60
PECOS...........................  54  72  53  72 /  70  50  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  51  73 /  70  20  50  70
RED RIVER.......................  43  64  44  63 /  70  50  50  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  43  68 /  70  40  50  70
TAOS............................  52  74  52  75 /  40  10  50  60
MORA............................  51  70  50  70 /  70  50  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  80  58  80 /  50  10  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  20  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  78  59  79 /  40  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  82  63  81 /  30  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  66  83 /  30  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  61  85 /  40  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  86  62  85 /  40  10  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  66  89  66  86 /  30  10  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  58  77 /  40  30  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  79  59  79 /  40  20  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  56  81 /  60  30  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  73  57  73 /  60  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  59  76 /  60  30  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  62  80 /  20  10  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  74  53  72 /  50  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  53  70  54  70 /  60  30  50  60
RATON...........................  55  73  56  73 /  60  30  50  50
SPRINGER........................  56  74  58  75 /  60  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  72  54  71 /  60  40  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  56  77  59  78 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  56  74  59  73 /  60  20  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  61  80  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  79  62  77 /  50  20  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  81  62  82 /  30   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  78  60  79 /  40   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  61  81 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  80  64  78 /  40  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  65  84  67  83 /  40  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  78  63  75 /  50  20  40  50
ELK.............................  58  74  58  70 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...THEN THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A GUSTY E CANYON WIND TONIGHT. AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT KABQ FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO
45 KT POSSIBLE. VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS INDICATES MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE KLVS MAY
SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
SANGRES. TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ENGULF THE PLAINS
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 301202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...THEN THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A GUSTY E CANYON WIND TONIGHT. AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT KABQ FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO
45 KT POSSIBLE. VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS INDICATES MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE KLVS MAY
SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
SANGRES. TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ENGULF THE PLAINS
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41







000
FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41






000
FXUS65 KABQ 300535 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED
UP HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS
VALLEY MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY
CLOSE. KABQ MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST
CHANCE WILL BE TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN
09Z AND 15Z. TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN
STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...916 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP. STORMS OVER
NORTHERN SANGRES ARE MOVING SEWD QUITE RAPIDLY...LIMITING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 300316 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
916 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP. STORMS OVER
NORTHERN SANGRES ARE MOVING SEWD QUITE RAPIDLY...LIMITING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KABQ 300316 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
916 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP. STORMS OVER
NORTHERN SANGRES ARE MOVING SEWD QUITE RAPIDLY...LIMITING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS65 KABQ 292357 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 292136 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE TS/SH PERIOD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WENT
BULLISH FOR MORE VIS/CIG IMPACTS DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. USING VCTS WITH TEMPO SH AT MOST
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WOULD DEVELOP CENTRAL AREAS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04Z TO 09Z THEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH THAT BAND OF RAIN.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS NOT INDICATING THAT AS MUCH THOUGH. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT OVERNIGHT RAIN/CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE NOT THE BEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  90  63  89 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  53  84  53  81 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  56  85  55  79 /  30  30  40  60
GALLUP..........................  56  87  58  86 /  20  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  53  84  54  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  57  87  56  84 /  30  20  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  85  57  85 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  58  91  59  90 /  20  10  10  40
CHAMA...........................  48  79  49  75 /  50  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  82  56  75 /  40  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  55  79  54  73 /  40  50  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  77  52  73 /  50  60  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  45  67  44  66 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  71  45  68 /  60  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  78  52  74 /  40  40  40  50
MORA............................  52  75  52  70 /  40  60  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  84  58  80 /  30  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  59  83  57  76 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  85  58  79 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  88  65  83 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  89  66  84 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  92  62  87 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  89  64  85 /  20  30  20  40
SOCORRO.........................  67  95  67  89 /  30  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  58  77 /  30  30  30  50
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  59  78 /  30  30  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  85  56  76 /  30  30  50  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  82  55  74 /  40  30  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  87  59  79 /  30  20  30  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  89  62  82 /  30  20  20  50
RUIDOSO.........................  57  83  53  74 /  40  30  40  60
CAPULIN.........................  56  71  53  73 /  70  70  30  30
RATON...........................  56  73  54  72 /  50  60  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  75  55  73 /  50  50  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  77  52  71 /  30  50  50  40
CLAYTON.........................  61  74  55  77 /  70  50  30  20
ROY.............................  60  75  54  75 /  50  50  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  83  60  78 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  84  61  79 /  40  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  85  61  80 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  85  60  78 /  30  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  65  88  61  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  88  63  81 /  30  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  93  68  84 /  20  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  62  79 /  30  30  30  40
ELK.............................  61  84  60  77 /  50  30  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$

11








000
FXUS65 KABQ 292136 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE TS/SH PERIOD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WENT
BULLISH FOR MORE VIS/CIG IMPACTS DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. USING VCTS WITH TEMPO SH AT MOST
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WOULD DEVELOP CENTRAL AREAS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04Z TO 09Z THEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH THAT BAND OF RAIN.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS NOT INDICATING THAT AS MUCH THOUGH. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT OVERNIGHT RAIN/CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE NOT THE BEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  90  63  89 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  53  84  53  81 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  56  85  55  79 /  30  30  40  60
GALLUP..........................  56  87  58  86 /  20  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  53  84  54  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  57  87  56  84 /  30  20  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  85  57  85 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  58  91  59  90 /  20  10  10  40
CHAMA...........................  48  79  49  75 /  50  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  82  56  75 /  40  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  55  79  54  73 /  40  50  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  77  52  73 /  50  60  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  45  67  44  66 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  71  45  68 /  60  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  78  52  74 /  40  40  40  50
MORA............................  52  75  52  70 /  40  60  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  84  58  80 /  30  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  59  83  57  76 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  85  58  79 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  88  65  83 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  89  66  84 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  92  62  87 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  89  64  85 /  20  30  20  40
SOCORRO.........................  67  95  67  89 /  30  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  58  77 /  30  30  30  50
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  59  78 /  30  30  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  85  56  76 /  30  30  50  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  82  55  74 /  40  30  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  87  59  79 /  30  20  30  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  89  62  82 /  30  20  20  50
RUIDOSO.........................  57  83  53  74 /  40  30  40  60
CAPULIN.........................  56  71  53  73 /  70  70  30  30
RATON...........................  56  73  54  72 /  50  60  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  75  55  73 /  50  50  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  77  52  71 /  30  50  50  40
CLAYTON.........................  61  74  55  77 /  70  50  30  20
ROY.............................  60  75  54  75 /  50  50  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  83  60  78 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  84  61  79 /  40  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  85  61  80 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  85  60  78 /  30  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  65  88  61  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  88  63  81 /  30  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  93  68  84 /  20  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  62  79 /  30  30  30  40
ELK.............................  61  84  60  77 /  50  30  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$

11









000
FXUS65 KABQ 292132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WILL LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING
SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSHING WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR
BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE TS/SH PERIOD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WENT
BULLISH FOR MORE VIS/CIG IMPACTS DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. USING VCTS WITH TEMPO SH AT MOST
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WOULD DEVELOP CENTRAL AREAS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04Z TO 09Z THEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH THAT BAND OF RAIN.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS NOT INDICATING THAT AS MUCH THOUGH. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT OVERNIGHT RAIN/CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE NOT THE BEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  90  63  89 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  53  84  53  81 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  56  85  55  79 /  30  30  40  60
GALLUP..........................  56  87  58  86 /  20  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  53  84  54  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  57  87  56  84 /  30  20  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  85  57  85 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  58  91  59  90 /  20  10  10  40
CHAMA...........................  48  79  49  75 /  50  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  82  56  75 /  40  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  55  79  54  73 /  40  50  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  77  52  73 /  50  60  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  45  67  44  66 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  71  45  68 /  60  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  78  52  74 /  40  40  40  50
MORA............................  52  75  52  70 /  40  60  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  84  58  80 /  30  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  59  83  57  76 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  85  58  79 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  88  65  83 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  89  66  84 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  92  62  87 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  89  64  85 /  20  30  20  40
SOCORRO.........................  67  95  67  89 /  30  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  58  77 /  30  30  30  50
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  59  78 /  30  30  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  85  56  76 /  30  30  50  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  82  55  74 /  40  30  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  87  59  79 /  30  20  30  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  89  62  82 /  30  20  20  50
RUIDOSO.........................  57  83  53  74 /  40  30  40  60
CAPULIN.........................  56  71  53  73 /  70  70  30  30
RATON...........................  56  73  54  72 /  50  60  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  75  55  73 /  50  50  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  77  52  71 /  30  50  50  40
CLAYTON.........................  61  74  55  77 /  70  50  30  20
ROY.............................  60  75  54  75 /  50  50  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  83  60  78 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  84  61  79 /  40  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  85  61  80 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  85  60  78 /  30  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  65  88  61  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  88  63  81 /  30  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  93  68  84 /  20  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  62  79 /  30  30  30  40
ELK.............................  61  84  60  77 /  50  30  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS65 KABQ 292132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WILL LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING
SO ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSHING WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW
THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR
BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE TS/SH PERIOD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WENT
BULLISH FOR MORE VIS/CIG IMPACTS DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. USING VCTS WITH TEMPO SH AT MOST
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WOULD DEVELOP CENTRAL AREAS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04Z TO 09Z THEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH THAT BAND OF RAIN.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS NOT INDICATING THAT AS MUCH THOUGH. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT OVERNIGHT RAIN/CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE NOT THE BEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  90  63  89 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  53  84  53  81 /  30  40  30  40
CUBA............................  56  85  55  79 /  30  30  40  60
GALLUP..........................  56  87  58  86 /  20  20  10  30
EL MORRO........................  53  84  54  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  57  87  56  84 /  30  20  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  85  57  85 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  58  91  59  90 /  20  10  10  40
CHAMA...........................  48  79  49  75 /  50  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  82  56  75 /  40  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  55  79  54  73 /  40  50  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  77  52  73 /  50  60  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  45  67  44  66 /  70  70  70  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  71  45  68 /  60  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  78  52  74 /  40  40  40  50
MORA............................  52  75  52  70 /  40  60  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  84  58  80 /  30  30  30  40
SANTA FE........................  59  83  57  76 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  85  58  79 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  88  65  83 /  30  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  89  66  84 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  91  63  86 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  90  65  85 /  20  20  20  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  92  62  87 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  65  89  64  85 /  20  30  20  40
SOCORRO.........................  67  95  67  89 /  30  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  58  77 /  30  30  30  50
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  59  78 /  30  30  30  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  85  56  76 /  30  30  50  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  82  55  74 /  40  30  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  87  59  79 /  30  20  30  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  89  62  82 /  30  20  20  50
RUIDOSO.........................  57  83  53  74 /  40  30  40  60
CAPULIN.........................  56  71  53  73 /  70  70  30  30
RATON...........................  56  73  54  72 /  50  60  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  75  55  73 /  50  50  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  77  52  71 /  30  50  50  40
CLAYTON.........................  61  74  55  77 /  70  50  30  20
ROY.............................  60  75  54  75 /  50  50  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  83  60  78 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  84  61  79 /  40  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  85  61  80 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  85  60  78 /  30  30  30  20
PORTALES........................  65  88  61  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  88  63  81 /  30  30  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  68  93  68  84 /  20  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  62  79 /  30  30  30  40
ELK.............................  61  84  60  77 /  50  30  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291805 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE TS/SH PERIOD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WENT
BULLISH FOR MORE VIS/CIG IMPACTS DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. USING VCTS WITH TEMPO SH AT MOST
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WOULD DEVELOP CENTRAL AREAS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04Z TO 09Z THEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH THAT BAND OF RAIN.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS NOT INDICATING THAT AS MUCH THOUGH. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT OVERNIGHT RAIN/CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE NOT THE BEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM 1ST PERIOD POPS A BIT...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODERATE
RAIN AND FLOODING IS ONGOING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
POPPING IS AN INDICATION OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE (KABQ SURFACE DEWPOINT HIT 63 EARLIER THIS
MORNING). ALSO TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES WEST AND
DOWN 2-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 291805 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE TS/SH PERIOD REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WENT
BULLISH FOR MORE VIS/CIG IMPACTS DUE TO CURRENT AND EXPECTED HIGH
SURFACE HUMIDITY. WIND SHOULD BE LESS OF A CONCERN ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY. CENTRAL AND EASTERN LOCATIONS
ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED. USING VCTS WITH TEMPO SH AT MOST
CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS. IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER BAND OF
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN WOULD DEVELOP CENTRAL AREAS AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04Z TO 09Z THEN SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING. EXPECT MVFR IF NOT IFR CIGS/VIS WITH THAT BAND OF RAIN.
ALSO CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AFTER THE BAND MOVES
THROUGH. MODELS NOT INDICATING THAT AS MUCH THOUGH. MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOUT OVERNIGHT RAIN/CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS SO
CONFIDENCE NOT THE BEST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM 1ST PERIOD POPS A BIT...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODERATE
RAIN AND FLOODING IS ONGOING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
POPPING IS AN INDICATION OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE (KABQ SURFACE DEWPOINT HIT 63 EARLIER THIS
MORNING). ALSO TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES WEST AND
DOWN 2-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 291630 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1030 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TRIM 1ST PERIOD POPS A BIT...EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE MODERATE
RAIN AND FLOODING IS ONGOING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
POPPING IS AN INDICATION OF BOTH INSTABILITY AND RICH LOW LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE (KABQ SURFACE DEWPOINT HIT 63 EARLIER THIS
MORNING). ALSO TWEAKED TODAY`S MAX TEMPS UP 2-3 DEGREES WEST AND
DOWN 2-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE RAIN COOLING AND CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE HEAT.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291127 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 291127 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
527 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EC NM BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND
NOON. HEAVIEST CORES AND LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTION EXPECTED AS STORMS
BUILD ENE. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. LOCALIZED LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN RAIN IMPACTED AREAS...BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY REMAINS FUZZY...BUT CONFIDENCE
GROWING FOR A LESS ACTIVE EVENT DUE TO THE COMBO OF RESIDUAL CLOUD
COVER EAST AND DRIER AIR OUT WEST. LATEST HIGH
RES MODELS FAVOR STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH
MTN OBSCURATIONS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE LOW ANY TERMINAL SITE WILL
BE IMPACTED...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING PEGS KLVS...KSAF...AND KGUP
HAVING BEST CHANCES. AFTN TSTMS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET AND END BY MIDNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 290940
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  62  89  62 /  50  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  76  51  82  51 /  70  30  30  40
CUBA............................  78  55  83  54 /  80  30  20  40
GALLUP..........................  81  57  85  58 /  30  20  10  20
EL MORRO........................  79  54  83  54 /  40  30  20  30
GRANTS..........................  80  55  84  55 /  50  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  80  57  84  57 /  30  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  86  58  90  59 /  30  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  71  47  76  47 /  90  50  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  58  82  56 /  90  30  30  40
PECOS...........................  75  55  80  53 /  90  30  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  71  51  74  51 /  90  50  40  50
RED RIVER.......................  64  45  65  43 /  90  70  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  43  70  43 /  90  50  50  50
TAOS............................  73  51  78  51 /  70  40  30  50
MORA............................  73  51  75  50 /  90  40  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  80  58  85  57 /  70  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  77  59  82  57 /  80  30  30  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  85  57 /  70  30  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  65  88  62 /  70  30  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  85  67  90  64 /  60  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  65  92  62 /  50  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  85  66  90  63 /  60  30  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  92  61 /  50  30  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  84  65  89  63 /  60  30  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  87  68  93  65 /  50  30  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  60  85  55 /  70  40  20  50
TIJERAS.........................  81  61  86  57 /  70  30  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  56  85  54 /  70  30  20  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  58  82  53 /  70  30  20  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  80  61  86  57 /  70  30  20  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  64  88  61 /  30  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  77  56  83  52 /  60  40  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  73  57  69  53 /  80  80  50  50
RATON...........................  75  57  70  55 /  70  60  40  50
SPRINGER........................  77  57  74  55 /  70  40  30  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  55  77  52 /  70  40  30  50
CLAYTON.........................  79  62  73  56 /  70  70  40  40
ROY.............................  76  60  74  56 /  70  50  30  50
CONCHAS.........................  85  66  85  62 /  60  40  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  84  65  84  60 /  70  40  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  67  85  61 /  70  40  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  84  64  87  60 /  60  40  20  40
PORTALES........................  86  65  89  61 /  60  30  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  66  89  62 /  60  40  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  91  68  96  66 /  30  20  10  30
PICACHO.........................  83  63  91  61 /  40  30  20  50
ELK.............................  80  61  86  58 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 290940
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PUSH TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GAP WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL REINVIGORATE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS FROM SLOW MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND AREAS
HAVING RECENTLY RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS MORNING. IMPRESSIVE AND COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /-73C/ NOTED NEAR
SANTA ROSA COMPLEX...AS WELL AS NEAR RUIDOSO. THE HRRR AND NAM12
MODELS DEPICT THESE STORMS CONGEALING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY AND PRODUCING LARGE SWATHS OF HEAVY RAIN. A NEW FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY COVERING MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
RECENT BURN SCARS. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN
RECENT DAYS...AND WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THAT MAY LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES AROUND THE HIGH...DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO
WESTERN NM AND GENERALLY LOWER STORM COVERAGE...SO LOWERED POPS
OVER THIS AREA.

THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN INTACT WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...KEEPING STORM ACTIVITY LESS THERE. AS THE WAVE EXITS THE
STATE...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE AND STRONG WINDS. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

WITH NEW FOUND MOISTURE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
VERY ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NM. MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF WAVES ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THIS EXTRA LIFT WILL ONLY INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY AND
PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINS...THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. 24/41

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
PACKAGE...WITH FIRE WX CONCERNS REMAINING LOW. THE BIGGEST THREAT
IS HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
OVER RECENT BURN SCAR AREAS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST BUT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED. RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OUT EAST AND DRIER AIR
COMING INTO THE WEST WILL ACT TO DECREASE STORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE WEST.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS SETTING OFF CONVECTION THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO WORK AROUND THE HIGH AND EXIT THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE DRY AIR REMAINS OVER WESTERN NM...THE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND NORTHERN MTS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS IN
THE TYPICAL GAP WIND LOCATIONS PERSISTING INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SERIES OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THESE WILL HELP INVIGORATE STORM ACTIVITY AND POTENTIALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH THE WESTERN REMAINING NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND THE EAST BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL FLUCTUATE DAY TO DAY...ESPECIALLY BASED ON
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERALLY REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT MOST
AREAS.  24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  62  89  62 /  50  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  76  51  82  51 /  70  30  30  40
CUBA............................  78  55  83  54 /  80  30  20  40
GALLUP..........................  81  57  85  58 /  30  20  10  20
EL MORRO........................  79  54  83  54 /  40  30  20  30
GRANTS..........................  80  55  84  55 /  50  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  80  57  84  57 /  30  20  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  86  58  90  59 /  30  20  20  20
CHAMA...........................  71  47  76  47 /  90  50  60  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  58  82  56 /  90  30  30  40
PECOS...........................  75  55  80  53 /  90  30  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  71  51  74  51 /  90  50  40  50
RED RIVER.......................  64  45  65  43 /  90  70  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  43  70  43 /  90  50  50  50
TAOS............................  73  51  78  51 /  70  40  30  50
MORA............................  73  51  75  50 /  90  40  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  80  58  85  57 /  70  30  20  30
SANTA FE........................  77  59  82  57 /  80  30  30  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  85  57 /  70  30  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  83  65  88  62 /  70  30  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  85  67  90  64 /  60  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  65  92  62 /  50  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  85  66  90  63 /  60  30  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  92  61 /  50  30  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  84  65  89  63 /  60  30  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  87  68  93  65 /  50  30  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  60  85  55 /  70  40  20  50
TIJERAS.........................  81  61  86  57 /  70  30  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  56  85  54 /  70  30  20  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  58  82  53 /  70  30  20  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  80  61  86  57 /  70  30  20  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  64  88  61 /  30  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  77  56  83  52 /  60  40  30  50
CAPULIN.........................  73  57  69  53 /  80  80  50  50
RATON...........................  75  57  70  55 /  70  60  40  50
SPRINGER........................  77  57  74  55 /  70  40  30  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  76  55  77  52 /  70  40  30  50
CLAYTON.........................  79  62  73  56 /  70  70  40  40
ROY.............................  76  60  74  56 /  70  50  30  50
CONCHAS.........................  85  66  85  62 /  60  40  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  84  65  84  60 /  70  40  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  67  85  61 /  70  40  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  84  64  87  60 /  60  40  20  40
PORTALES........................  86  65  89  61 /  60  30  20  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  66  89  62 /  60  40  20  40
ROSWELL.........................  91  68  96  66 /  30  20  10  30
PICACHO.........................  83  63  91  61 /  40  30  20  50
ELK.............................  80  61  86  58 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-526>534-537-539.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ521-522-524-535-536-538-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ510-511-516.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 290601 AAD
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SPREAD THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST FORCING OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FAVOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. TRAINING
OF STORMS COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM CAUSING SOME LOCATIONS TO
RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN. EXTENDED THE WATCH IN TIME BECAUSE
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AS THE
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...917 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER TODAY
HAS BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD JOG ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SW AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT E SLOPES
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY THERE LATELY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO HARDING
COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
MODELS ARE ROUGHLY AGREEING ON AN OVERNIGHT PRECIP BULLS EYE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-521>524-526>540.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 290601 AAD
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SPREAD THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ALSO CANCELLED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WITH
THE BEST FORCING OUT AHEAD OF IT...WHICH IS ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FAVOR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN FOR HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. TRAINING
OF STORMS COULD BE A REAL PROBLEM CAUSING SOME LOCATIONS TO
RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN. EXTENDED THE WATCH IN TIME BECAUSE
MODELS SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AS THE
SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...917 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER TODAY
HAS BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD JOG ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SW AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT E SLOPES
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY THERE LATELY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO HARDING
COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
MODELS ARE ROUGHLY AGREEING ON AN OVERNIGHT PRECIP BULLS EYE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-521>524-526>540.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 290525 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...917 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER TODAY
HAS BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD JOG ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SW AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT E SLOPES
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY THERE LATELY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO HARDING
COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
MODELS ARE ROUGHLY AGREEING ON AN OVERNIGHT PRECIP BULLS EYE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 290525 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY ACTIVE AND HIGH IMPACT PERIOD FOR AVIATION THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS INTERACTING WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE IMPACTING
AREAS NEAR ROSWELL...WITH LOW TOPPED AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PROCESSES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES. GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THE ENTIRE AREA
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST INTO WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. DETERIORATED TAF CIGS TO
NEAR 020 WITH RAIN AND MIST MOST OF THE NIGHT FOR KLVS...KTCC...
AND KROW. FARTHER WEST POPCORN TYPE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DRIFTING
NORTH AROUND KABQ/KSAF WESTWARD INTO ARIZONA. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
SINCE RAIN FOOTPRINTS ARE SMALL AND ACTIVITY IS ISOLD IN NATURE AT
THIS TIME.

TOMORROW POSES A VERY TRICKY FORECAST WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT OFFER ANY CONFIDENCE...BUT WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COOL TEMPS HAVE JUST GONE
VCSH FOR NOW CENTRAL AND WEST. THE EAST MAY ACTUALLY NEVER REALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM RAIN/STORM ACTIVITY UNTIL THE UPPER WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...917 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER TODAY
HAS BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD JOG ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SW AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT E SLOPES
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY THERE LATELY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO HARDING
COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
MODELS ARE ROUGHLY AGREEING ON AN OVERNIGHT PRECIP BULLS EYE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 290317 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
917 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER TODAY
HAS BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD JOG ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SW AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT E SLOPES
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY THERE LATELY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO HARDING
COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
MODELS ARE ROUGHLY AGREEING ON AN OVERNIGHT PRECIP BULLS EYE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...558 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONTRARY TO MODEL GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ACTIVITY HAS FIRED
UP QUITE LATE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL FORCE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF NM TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND LIKELY MERGE INTO AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TX
BORDER FROM KTCC SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SO A FEW SITES HAVE BKN
CIGS BTWN 020 AND 035. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THICKER CLOUD COVER
SO AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHER OVER A LARGER AREA THAN LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST TOMORROW
WITH DRIER AIR FORCING IN FROM THE WEST. PLACED VCTS IN MANY AREAS
OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
THE EAST MAY END UP WITH A LENGTHY DURATION OF CLOUDS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 290317 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
917 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MODEL AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
A DISTURBANCE THAT TRACKED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NM/AZ BORDER TODAY
HAS BEGUN A NORTHWESTWARD JOG ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NM
TONIGHT. MODELS DEPICT DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SW AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
TO KEEP THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT E SLOPES
FOR HEAVIER PRECIP TONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS
WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN SO
DRY THERE LATELY. BIGGEST CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT
APPEARS TO BE FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD TO HARDING
COUNTY WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS AND
MODELS ARE ROUGHLY AGREEING ON AN OVERNIGHT PRECIP BULLS EYE.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...558 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONTRARY TO MODEL GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN TODAY...ACTIVITY HAS FIRED
UP QUITE LATE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN ARIZONA WILL FORCE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF NM TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND LIKELY MERGE INTO AN AREA OF RAIN OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER AREA IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TX
BORDER FROM KTCC SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SO A FEW SITES HAVE BKN
CIGS BTWN 020 AND 035. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THICKER CLOUD COVER
SO AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE HIGHER OVER A LARGER AREA THAN LAST
NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST TOMORROW
WITH DRIER AIR FORCING IN FROM THE WEST. PLACED VCTS IN MANY AREAS
OF CENTRAL/WESTERN NM EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE SOME CLEARING OCCURS.
THE EAST MAY END UP WITH A LENGTHY DURATION OF CLOUDS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LAST WEEK...MONSOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK
IN A BIG WAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND RESULT IN
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THROUGH
THE GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN COOLING AND CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KABQ 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.13...WHICH IS
ABOVE NORMAL (127%). THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WAS POSITIONED
OVER THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND IS RESULTING IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SW U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES PER THE LATEST 15MIN LIGHTNING PLOT AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA...MINUS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NM.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IDENTIFIED IN THE 12Z UPPER AIR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AZ WAS
INITIALIZED WELL BY THE 12Z MODELS AND WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN
THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST AROUND
THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NW NEW MEXICO AND WAS ONE OF THE CONSIDERATIONS IN AN
EARLIER EXPANSION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IN ADDITION TO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE TUESDAY...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST
WILL BE FAVORED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER HAS BEEN DRENCHED RECENTLY...SO IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING CONCERNS. DRY AIR WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER
AND BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A DOWN-TICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED BEGINNING WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH WILL PUSH INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN OUT TO AT LEAST THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS MOISTURE RECHARGING WILL BRING PWATS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL AND LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY. THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT A BIT EAST ON FRIDAY...TO
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AS THE UPPER HIGH
BUILDS BACK NORTH TO OVER THE AZ/NM LINE. SHEAR PROFILES ON
THU/FRI WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. HIGHER HUMIDITY
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ALTHOUGH HAVE SOME BRIEF
DRYING ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY. WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN PROLIFIC MOST AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WAS A LITTLE SLOW TO GO TODAY BUT IS NOW FILLING
IN NICELY AND LOOK FOR OTHER AREAS TO GET INTO THE ACTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES INTO THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. IT APPEARS THAT SE AREAS HAVE
THE LEAST POTENTIAL OF WETTING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS PRETTY
SLOW TO MOVE AND SOME STRONG RAIN RATES EXPECTED. OUTFLOW WINDS
REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RECYCLE OUT
IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN WOULD BE
FOUND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. ALL OF
THE MODELS SHOW A STRONG SIGNATURE OF RAIN ACROSS THAT AREA.
STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE MORE STEADY TOWARDS THE EAST AS A WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE AN INTERESTING DAY. STILL LOOKING AT A
DRIER AND POTENTIALLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO IMPACT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
AREAS. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD AND
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WOULD COMBINE WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT TO FOCUS SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL MTNS
AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. TIMING AND TRANSLATION OF THESE FEATURES IS
TANTAMOUNT TO WHICH AREA IS FAVORED BUT NORTHEAST HALF LOOKS FAVORED
RIGHT NOW. HUMIDITY VALUES COME DOWN SOME ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTH BUT
NOT THE LEVELS OBSERVED A FEW DAYS AGO.

THE PARTIAL DRYING MENTIONED ABOVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY AND USHERS HIGHER DEWPOINTS FURTHER WEST. THURSDAY
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MTNS
WILL DO PRETTY WELL AND BASED ON STEERING FLOW
PROJECTIONS...ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW
DEPICTED SO CANT RULE OUT SOME VERY STRONG STORMS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTNS BUT WILL DEPEND ON LOW LEVEL STABILITY. THIS
COULD BE A COLD FRONT THAT STABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS QUITE A BIT
ACROSS THE EAST ON THURSDAY. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY VALUES CLIMB
AND TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ACROSS
THE EAST AND NEAR NORMAL FAR WEST.

RECYCLING OF THE MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION
WOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE
UNSTABLE AS THE EFFECTS OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LESS.
THUS EXPECTING A PRETTY GOOD CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OR PERHAPS A SERIES OF WEAKER ONES IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS WOULD ACT TO REPLENISH
ANY LOST MOISTURE WITHIN THE UPPER HIGH SO THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REMAIN WITH CONTINUED WETTING STORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY. THIS TREND
IS EXPECTED FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS WELL.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>515-526>532.

&&

$$

44






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