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000
FXUS65 KABQ 032120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500 MB MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BUILDING CUMULUS TO SURVIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. BOTH NAM
AND GFS KEEP THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR TAKES OVER. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
UPPER HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO TWO MORE THAN TUESDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH GETS FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BY A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK TO THE SW MTNS. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
APPEARS TO RESULT IN A FULL FLEDGED SLY MONSOON PLUME AND ABOVE
AVG PWATS. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR SUNDAY. GFS ELONGATES THE UPPER
HIGH WWD...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND AMPLIFIES
AND SHIFTS THE HIGHER FARTHER EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OK/TX...RESULTING IN A VERY CLASSIC LOOKING DEEP MONSOON PLUME
SMACK DAB OVER NM. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DOMINATING NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR EXTENDED FROM TRINIDAD CO TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SILVER CITY.
WEST OF THIS LINE...SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED STORM INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEEPER MIXING HAS
ALLOWED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20MPH TO SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THE DIVIDE REGION. DEW POINTS ALREADY TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS
10 TO 12 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  FARTHER EAST...EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE COMING DAYS PARTICULARLY BEFORE
AND JUST AFTER PEAK MIXING PERIODS. AS WE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
DRYING EPISODE...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RAPIDLY LOWER FOR 1-3 HOURS
AROUND PEAK MIXING BEFORE REBOUNDING NEARLY AS RAPIDLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. EITHER WAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ANOTHER 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER TODAY AND A BIT FURTHER STILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE GRIDDED DEW POINT FORECASTS.

WIDENING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THURSDAY OWING TO THE
DRIER AIR MASS.  COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS...AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
INITIALLY WC/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN MORE OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS NARROW WITH
LESS HEAT TO END THE WEEK.

MODERATE HAINES VALUES TO EXPAND AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AND PREDOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 6 WILL DEVELOP OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. VERY GOOD OR BETTER
VENTILATION FOR TUESDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS TRANSPORT WINDS WEAKEN THOUGH STILL
GOOD OR BETTER FOR MAJORITY OF LOCALES. KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AIR MASS DRYING WEST TO EAST WILL GREATLY LIMIT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE NO MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT TERMINAL SITES. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVER SC/SE AND NE QUARTER WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA IMPACTING THE FAR NE
CORNER. WILL ALSO KEEP VC PLACEHOLDER AT KROW AS -SHRA/-TSRA ROLL
EASTWARD OFF THE TERRAIN. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  91  55  93 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  47  84  46  87 /  20   5   5   5
CUBA............................  52  81  54  84 /   5  10   0   5
GALLUP..........................  48  89  50  91 /   5   5   0   5
EL MORRO........................  49  83  50  86 /   5  10   0  10
GRANTS..........................  50  89  51  87 /   5   5   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  52  84  53  85 /   5  10   0  10
GLENWOOD........................  56  89  57  89 /   5   5   0   5
CHAMA...........................  46  77  46  80 /  30  10   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  82  58  86 /   5  20   5   5
PECOS...........................  55  83  57  85 /   5  10   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  78  48  80 /  30  10   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  46  71  42  74 /  40  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  72  44  76 /  20  10   5  20
TAOS............................  49  83  49  85 /   5  10   0   5
MORA............................  53  81  54  83 /  10  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  57  88  57  91 /   5   5   0   5
SANTA FE........................  58  84  60  86 /   5  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  87  56  89 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  90  63  92 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  92  66  94 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  94  61  96 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  93  64  95 /   5   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  92  59  94 /   5   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  64  95 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  65  95  63  97 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  59  87 /   5  10   0  10
TIJERAS.........................  56  87  55  89 /   5   5   0  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  88  50  89 /   5   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  85  59  86 /   5  10   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  87  60  89 /   5   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  91  64  92 /  10   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  60  83  61  84 /  10  10   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  57  84  59  87 /  50  20  20  10
RATON...........................  55  88  56  91 /  40  10  20  10
SPRINGER........................  56  89  57  91 /  20   5  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  86  56  88 /   5  10   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  62  91  64  92 /  50   5  10   5
ROY.............................  60  89  61  91 /  10   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  65  94  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  64  95  64  96 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  98  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  66  95  67  97 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  67  96  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  98  67  99 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  69 102  69 104 /  10   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  64  95  64  96 /  10   5   0   5
ELK.............................  63  87  64  88 /  10  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 032120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500 MB MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BUILDING CUMULUS TO SURVIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. BOTH NAM
AND GFS KEEP THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR TAKES OVER. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
UPPER HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO TWO MORE THAN TUESDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH GETS FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BY A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK TO THE SW MTNS. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
APPEARS TO RESULT IN A FULL FLEDGED SLY MONSOON PLUME AND ABOVE
AVG PWATS. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR SUNDAY. GFS ELONGATES THE UPPER
HIGH WWD...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND AMPLIFIES
AND SHIFTS THE HIGHER FARTHER EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OK/TX...RESULTING IN A VERY CLASSIC LOOKING DEEP MONSOON PLUME
SMACK DAB OVER NM. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DOMINATING NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR EXTENDED FROM TRINIDAD CO TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SILVER CITY.
WEST OF THIS LINE...SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED STORM INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEEPER MIXING HAS
ALLOWED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20MPH TO SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THE DIVIDE REGION. DEW POINTS ALREADY TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS
10 TO 12 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  FARTHER EAST...EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE COMING DAYS PARTICULARLY BEFORE
AND JUST AFTER PEAK MIXING PERIODS. AS WE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
DRYING EPISODE...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RAPIDLY LOWER FOR 1-3 HOURS
AROUND PEAK MIXING BEFORE REBOUNDING NEARLY AS RAPIDLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. EITHER WAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ANOTHER 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER TODAY AND A BIT FURTHER STILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE GRIDDED DEW POINT FORECASTS.

WIDENING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THURSDAY OWING TO THE
DRIER AIR MASS.  COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS...AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
INITIALLY WC/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN MORE OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS NARROW WITH
LESS HEAT TO END THE WEEK.

MODERATE HAINES VALUES TO EXPAND AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AND PREDOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 6 WILL DEVELOP OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. VERY GOOD OR BETTER
VENTILATION FOR TUESDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS TRANSPORT WINDS WEAKEN THOUGH STILL
GOOD OR BETTER FOR MAJORITY OF LOCALES. KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AIR MASS DRYING WEST TO EAST WILL GREATLY LIMIT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE NO MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT TERMINAL SITES. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVER SC/SE AND NE QUARTER WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA IMPACTING THE FAR NE
CORNER. WILL ALSO KEEP VC PLACEHOLDER AT KROW AS -SHRA/-TSRA ROLL
EASTWARD OFF THE TERRAIN. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  91  55  93 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  47  84  46  87 /  20   5   5   5
CUBA............................  52  81  54  84 /   5  10   0   5
GALLUP..........................  48  89  50  91 /   5   5   0   5
EL MORRO........................  49  83  50  86 /   5  10   0  10
GRANTS..........................  50  89  51  87 /   5   5   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  52  84  53  85 /   5  10   0  10
GLENWOOD........................  56  89  57  89 /   5   5   0   5
CHAMA...........................  46  77  46  80 /  30  10   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  82  58  86 /   5  20   5   5
PECOS...........................  55  83  57  85 /   5  10   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  49  78  48  80 /  30  10   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  46  71  42  74 /  40  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  72  44  76 /  20  10   5  20
TAOS............................  49  83  49  85 /   5  10   0   5
MORA............................  53  81  54  83 /  10  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  57  88  57  91 /   5   5   0   5
SANTA FE........................  58  84  60  86 /   5  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  87  56  89 /   5  10   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  90  63  92 /   5   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  92  66  94 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  94  61  96 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  93  64  95 /   5   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  60  92  59  94 /   5   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  63  93  64  95 /   5   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  65  95  63  97 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  85  59  87 /   5  10   0  10
TIJERAS.........................  56  87  55  89 /   5   5   0  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  88  50  89 /   5   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  85  59  86 /   5  10   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  87  60  89 /   5   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  91  64  92 /  10   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  60  83  61  84 /  10  10   5  20
CAPULIN.........................  57  84  59  87 /  50  20  20  10
RATON...........................  55  88  56  91 /  40  10  20  10
SPRINGER........................  56  89  57  91 /  20   5  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  86  56  88 /   5  10   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  62  91  64  92 /  50   5  10   5
ROY.............................  60  89  61  91 /  10   5  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  65  94  66  96 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  64  95  64  96 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  98  67  98 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  66  95  67  97 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  67  96  69  98 /  20   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  98  67  99 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  69 102  69 104 /  10   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  64  95  64  96 /  10   5   0   5
ELK.............................  63  87  64  88 /  10  10   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 031730 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AIR MASS DRYING WEST TO EAST WILL GREATLY LIMIT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE NO MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT TERMINAL SITES. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVER SC/SE AND NE QUARTER WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA IMPACTING THE FAR NE
CORNER. WILL ALSO KEEP VC PLACEHOLDER AT KROW AS -SHRA/-TSRA ROLL
EASTWARD OFF THE TERRAIN. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1015 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500MB SIMPLY TOO DRY FOR
TOWERING CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG...ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN NM.

33

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 031730 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AIR MASS DRYING WEST TO EAST WILL GREATLY LIMIT -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE NO MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AT TERMINAL SITES. BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION OVER SC/SE AND NE QUARTER WHERE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE TSRA IMPACTING THE FAR NE
CORNER. WILL ALSO KEEP VC PLACEHOLDER AT KROW AS -SHRA/-TSRA ROLL
EASTWARD OFF THE TERRAIN. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1015 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500MB SIMPLY TOO DRY FOR
TOWERING CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG...ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN NM.

33

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 031615 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500MB SIMPLY TOO DRY FOR
TOWERING CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG...ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN NM.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 14-15Z. THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THUS...WILL
NOT MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. ACROSS THE EAST...COULD
STILL SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS WITH +RA. MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HAVE DIMINISHED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 031615 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1015 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED TO LOWER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500MB SIMPLY TOO DRY FOR
TOWERING CUMULUS/CUMULONIMBUS TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG...ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN NM.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 14-15Z. THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THUS...WILL
NOT MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. ACROSS THE EAST...COULD
STILL SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS WITH +RA. MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HAVE DIMINISHED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 031135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 14-15Z. THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THUS...WILL
NOT MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. ACROSS THE EAST...COULD
STILL SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS WITH +RA. MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HAVE DIMINISHED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 031135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS IS DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 14-15Z. THE DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. THUS...WILL
NOT MENTION VCSH/VCTS FOR THOSE TAF SITES. ACROSS THE EAST...COULD
STILL SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN STORMS WITH +RA. MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HAVE DIMINISHED OR
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR WEST...IN CONTRAST
TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE
OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z
SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND
TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY DECREASING. THEREFORE
HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTDVD FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 030917
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST...IN CONTRAST TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL
UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID
LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY
DECREASING. THEREFORE HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE
CONTDVD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A BROKEN LINE OF MEAGERLY
DEVELOPED CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA OR TS AT KABQ...KSAF OR KLVS. ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE E PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PLAINS
WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO
ISOLD STORMS FAVORING THE N MTS EASTWARD...THE S TIER OF MTS AND THE
SE PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  58  93  58 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  81  47  87  47 /  30  20   0   5
CUBA............................  83  52  86  53 /  30  20   0   5
GALLUP..........................  87  51  89  50 /  10   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  85  50  87  48 /  10   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  88  50 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  52  86  51 /  10  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  87  58  91  58 /  20  20   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  45  81  46 /  50  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  87  58 /  40  20  10  10
PECOS...........................  84  55  86  56 /  40  10  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  84  47 /  50  30  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  77  45  81  44 /  70  40  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  79  47  81  45 /  50  30  20  10
TAOS............................  80  48  86  48 /  30  20   5   5
MORA............................  80  52  84  53 /  60  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  85  53  92  54 /  30  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  84  54  88  55 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  56  90  57 /  20  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  90  62 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  91  60  94  60 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  61  94  61 /  10  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  89  63  93  64 /  10  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  88  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  57  88  59 /  20  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  85  59  90  60 /  20  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  55  91  55 /  20  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  57  87  57 /  30  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  85  58  89  61 /  30  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  61  91  63 /  30  30   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  80  58  83  60 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  86  60  88  58 /  60  40  20  20
RATON...........................  86  54  90  55 /  50  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  85  53  89  54 /  40  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  82  53  87  54 /  40  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  92  64 /  50  40  10  10
ROY.............................  85  60  91  61 /  40  30  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  88  61  94  61 /  30  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  90  62  95  63 /  40  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  96  66 /  30  30  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  91  66  95  65 /  40  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  92  67  96  66 /  40  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  66  97  66 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  97  69 101  68 /  30  20   5   5
PICACHO.........................  88  62  94  63 /  40  30  10  10
ELK.............................  86  61  88  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 030917
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST...IN CONTRAST TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL
UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID
LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY
DECREASING. THEREFORE HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE
CONTDVD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A BROKEN LINE OF MEAGERLY
DEVELOPED CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA OR TS AT KABQ...KSAF OR KLVS. ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE E PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PLAINS
WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO
ISOLD STORMS FAVORING THE N MTS EASTWARD...THE S TIER OF MTS AND THE
SE PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  58  93  58 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  81  47  87  47 /  30  20   0   5
CUBA............................  83  52  86  53 /  30  20   0   5
GALLUP..........................  87  51  89  50 /  10   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  85  50  87  48 /  10   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  88  50 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  52  86  51 /  10  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  87  58  91  58 /  20  20   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  45  81  46 /  50  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  87  58 /  40  20  10  10
PECOS...........................  84  55  86  56 /  40  10  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  84  47 /  50  30  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  77  45  81  44 /  70  40  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  79  47  81  45 /  50  30  20  10
TAOS............................  80  48  86  48 /  30  20   5   5
MORA............................  80  52  84  53 /  60  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  85  53  92  54 /  30  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  84  54  88  55 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  56  90  57 /  20  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  90  62 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  91  60  94  60 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  61  94  61 /  10  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  89  63  93  64 /  10  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  88  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  57  88  59 /  20  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  85  59  90  60 /  20  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  55  91  55 /  20  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  57  87  57 /  30  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  85  58  89  61 /  30  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  61  91  63 /  30  30   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  80  58  83  60 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  86  60  88  58 /  60  40  20  20
RATON...........................  86  54  90  55 /  50  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  85  53  89  54 /  40  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  82  53  87  54 /  40  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  92  64 /  50  40  10  10
ROY.............................  85  60  91  61 /  40  30  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  88  61  94  61 /  30  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  90  62  95  63 /  40  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  96  66 /  30  30  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  91  66  95  65 /  40  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  92  67  96  66 /  40  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  66  97  66 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  97  69 101  68 /  30  20   5   5
PICACHO.........................  88  62  94  63 /  40  30  10  10
ELK.............................  86  61  88  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 030917
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RECENT PERIOD OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK. DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAINLY
AFFECTING THE WEST TODAY. PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS COULD SEE
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO WORK BACK INTO THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A RETURN TO MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIR EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST...IN CONTRAST TO THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME. STILL
UNSURE WHETHER MOISTURE OVER THE WEST WILL MIX OUT ENTIRELY THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS TO OUR WEST INDICATE DECENT MID
LEVEL DRIER AIR...AND TPW PRODUCT VALUES TO OUR WEST SLOWLY
DECREASING. THEREFORE HOLDING ONTO THE ISOLD POPS ALONG/WEST OF THE
CONTDVD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE NORTHEAST...A FEW STRONG STORMS
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...SHUTTING DOWN RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLD AT BEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH
WEDNESDAY THE WARMEST DAY. THAT SAID...WATCHING ANOTHER STREAM OF
MOISTURE TO OUR WEST NOSE TOWARD THE CA COAST...BUT SO FAR THIS IS
PREDICTED TO BE SHUNTED TO OUR NORTH.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST BEGIN TO
FALL BELOW AVERAGE...AS MOISTURE REMAINS FORECAST TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST
AND THE UPPER HIGH CENTER RELOCATES TO OUR EAST. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS HINTS THE MOISTURE TAP MAY BE DIMINISHED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERAL DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY SLOT IS SLOWLY PUSHING INTO WESTERN NM EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK JET...STORMS CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. LATER TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO NUDGE INTO
WESTERN NM...THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD.
THUS...SHOWER AND TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD WANE
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND BEST STORM CHANCES WILL
BE ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS DRYING
OUT INTO THE UPPER 30S OR LOW 40S ACROSS WESTERN NM...BUT GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND EXPECTED EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TODAY...SUSPECT
THAT MAY BE A LITTLE TOO BULLISH. THUS... THE DEWPOINT...AND HENCE
RH....FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS...
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE 10 TO 20 PERCENT LOWER
THAN YESTERDAY. SIMILAR READINGS TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST.

THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...AND LINGERS AROUND
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH WOBBLES OVERHEAD AND DISTURBS THE
TYPICAL MONSOONAL FLOW PATTERN. DUE TO THE DRYING
TREND...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM...AND HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUES-
THURS. HUMIDITIES WILL LOWER EACH DAY...BUT MINIMUMS BETWEEN 14 AND
24 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL BE COMMON. WIDESPREAD HAINES VALUES OF 5 WILL ALSO
RETURN...WITH 6 HAINES PREVAILING ON THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALI COAST. THUS...SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE...SHOULD RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. BEST STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY LOOK TO BE ACROSS WESTERN NM
AS THE UPPER HIGH WILL STILL HAVE A GRIP ON THE EAST. BUT BY THE
WEEKEND...THE MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD MOVE OVERHEAD INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

VENTILATION WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...COULD SEE A FEW POCKETS OF POOR ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS DUE TO VERY LOW TRANSPORT
WINDS.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A BROKEN LINE OF MEAGERLY
DEVELOPED CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHRA OR TS AT KABQ...KSAF OR KLVS. ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE E PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PLAINS
WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY SCT TO
ISOLD STORMS FAVORING THE N MTS EASTWARD...THE S TIER OF MTS AND THE
SE PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  58  93  58 /  10   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  81  47  87  47 /  30  20   0   5
CUBA............................  83  52  86  53 /  30  20   0   5
GALLUP..........................  87  51  89  50 /  10   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  85  50  87  48 /  10   5   5   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  88  50 /  20  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  52  86  51 /  10  10  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  87  58  91  58 /  20  20   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  45  81  46 /  50  20  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  87  58 /  40  20  10  10
PECOS...........................  84  55  86  56 /  40  10  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  84  47 /  50  30  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  77  45  81  44 /  70  40  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  79  47  81  45 /  50  30  20  10
TAOS............................  80  48  86  48 /  30  20   5   5
MORA............................  80  52  84  53 /  60  20  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  85  53  92  54 /  30  10   5   5
SANTA FE........................  84  54  88  55 /  30  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  86  56  90  57 /  20  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  90  62 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  91  60  94  60 /  10  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  90  61  94  61 /  10  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  89  63  93  64 /  10  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  88  63  95  62 /  10  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  57  88  59 /  20  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  85  59  90  60 /  20  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  55  91  55 /  20  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  57  87  57 /  30  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  85  58  89  61 /  30  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  61  91  63 /  30  30   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  80  58  83  60 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  86  60  88  58 /  60  40  20  20
RATON...........................  86  54  90  55 /  50  30  20  20
SPRINGER........................  85  53  89  54 /  40  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  82  53  87  54 /  40  20  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  62  92  64 /  50  40  10  10
ROY.............................  85  60  91  61 /  40  30  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  88  61  94  61 /  30  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  90  62  95  63 /  40  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  96  66 /  30  30  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  91  66  95  65 /  40  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  92  67  96  66 /  40  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  94  66  97  66 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  97  69 101  68 /  30  20   5   5
PICACHO.........................  88  62  94  63 /  40  30  10  10
ELK.............................  86  61  88  61 /  60  40  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 030550 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A BROKEN LINE OF MEAGERLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLD SHRA OR TS AT KABQ...KSAF OR KLVS. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE E
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PLAINS
WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY
SCT TO ISOLD STORMS FAVORING THE N MTS EASTWARD...THE S TIER OF
MTS AND THE SE PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E
CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1017 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP FIELD TO REFLECT CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
TRENDS. RADAR SHOWS MAIN BATCH ACROSS NW/WC AREAS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE EC/SE PLAINS. EC/SE PLAINS SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WESTERN BATCH IS BEING SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN TIER REST OF TONIGHT. QUITE SEE SOME
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IMPACT THE ABQ METRO AREA AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE EVE/EARLY MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO WINDING DOWN SO DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS DUE TO LOCALIZED MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH RISK TO CONTINUE THE WATCH.
RIO ARRIBA COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST SATURATED BASED ON AREAL
SOIL MOISTURE MAPS SO THAT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MINOR FLOODING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO FEWER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 030550 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS PROG A BROKEN LINE OF MEAGERLY DEVELOPED
CONVECTION TO WEAKEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CANT RULE OUT
AN ISOLD SHRA OR TS AT KABQ...KSAF OR KLVS. ACTIVITY ACROSS THE E
PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NE PLAINS
WHERE IT MAY CONTINUE UNTIL SUNRISE. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY
SCT TO ISOLD STORMS FAVORING THE N MTS EASTWARD...THE S TIER OF
MTS AND THE SE PLAINS. SPOTTIER ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS E
CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1017 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP FIELD TO REFLECT CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
TRENDS. RADAR SHOWS MAIN BATCH ACROSS NW/WC AREAS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE EC/SE PLAINS. EC/SE PLAINS SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WESTERN BATCH IS BEING SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN TIER REST OF TONIGHT. QUITE SEE SOME
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IMPACT THE ABQ METRO AREA AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE EVE/EARLY MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO WINDING DOWN SO DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS DUE TO LOCALIZED MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH RISK TO CONTINUE THE WATCH.
RIO ARRIBA COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST SATURATED BASED ON AREAL
SOIL MOISTURE MAPS SO THAT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MINOR FLOODING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO FEWER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 030417 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1017 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP FIELD TO REFLECT CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
TRENDS. RADAR SHOWS MAIN BATCH ACROSS NW/WC AREAS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE EC/SE PLAINS. EC/SE PLAINS SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WESTERN BATCH IS BEING SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN TIER REST OF TONIGHT. QUITE SEE SOME
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IMPACT THE ABQ METRO AREA AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE EVE/EARLY MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO WINDING DOWN SO DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS DUE TO LOCALIZED MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH RISK TO CONTINUE THE WATCH.
RIO ARRIBA COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST SATURATED BASED ON AREAL
SOIL MOISTURE MAPS SO THAT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MINOR FLOODING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE SHRA/TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS AT KFMN AND KTCC IN NEAR TERM. ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN
VC MENTION AS PLACEHOLDERS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES PER SHORT-
TERM RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS. KFMN...KGUP...KSAF...AND KLVS MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE WAVES OF IMPACTS BEFORE 06Z. STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY E OR NE AT 10-15 KTS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCURATIONS FROM ANY PASSING STRONG TSRA.
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WILL SEE EXPANSION OF
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 03Z EXTENDING THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO FEWER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTIABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 030417 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1017 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP FIELD TO REFLECT CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED COVERAGE
TRENDS. RADAR SHOWS MAIN BATCH ACROSS NW/WC AREAS AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE EC/SE PLAINS. EC/SE PLAINS SHOULD DWINDLE DOWN DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WESTERN BATCH IS BEING SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AND
SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN TIER REST OF TONIGHT. QUITE SEE SOME
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN IMPACT THE ABQ METRO AREA AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD LATE EVE/EARLY MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING TOO
MUCH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO WINDING DOWN SO DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE WATCH. SOME MINOR FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE NC MTNS DUE TO LOCALIZED MOIST ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS. BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH RISK TO CONTINUE THE WATCH.
RIO ARRIBA COUNTY APPEARS TO BE THE MOST SATURATED BASED ON AREAL
SOIL MOISTURE MAPS SO THAT WOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MINOR FLOODING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE SHRA/TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS AT KFMN AND KTCC IN NEAR TERM. ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN
VC MENTION AS PLACEHOLDERS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES PER SHORT-
TERM RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS. KFMN...KGUP...KSAF...AND KLVS MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE WAVES OF IMPACTS BEFORE 06Z. STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY E OR NE AT 10-15 KTS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCURATIONS FROM ANY PASSING STRONG TSRA.
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WILL SEE EXPANSION OF
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 03Z EXTENDING THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO FEWER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTIABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 022343 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST
AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL MAINTAIN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE SHRA/TSRA. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT
IMPACTS AT KFMN AND KTCC IN NEAR TERM. ELSEWHERE...WILL MAINTAIN
VC MENTION AS PLACEHOLDERS UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES PER SHORT-
TERM RADAR/LIGHTNING TRENDS. KFMN...KGUP...KSAF...AND KLVS MOST LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE WAVES OF IMPACTS BEFORE 06Z. STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY E OR NE AT 10-15 KTS. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCURATIONS FROM ANY PASSING STRONG TSRA.
GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WILL SEE EXPANSION OF
SHRA/TSRA AFTER 03Z EXTENDING THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. KJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO FEWER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
WEST. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT
WEATHER PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO BE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTIABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-505>509-518>524-532-533.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-510>517-527>529.

&&

$$

41




000
FXUS65 KABQ 022140
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO NOTICEABLY FEWER STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTIABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM 18Z TO 00Z. STORM
MOTION WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO EAST...BUT SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC
AT TIMES. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCD FOR SITES IMPACTED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40KT FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  90  57  95 /  70  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  49  81  44  86 /  70  30  20   0
CUBA............................  53  83  51  89 /  60  30  20   0
GALLUP..........................  51  87  51  91 /  50  10   5   0
EL MORRO........................  52  86  50  90 /  60  10   5   5
GRANTS..........................  52  86  51  90 /  60  20  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  50  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  58  85  59  90 /  30  20  20   5
CHAMA...........................  48  81  44  86 /  80  50  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  86  56  91 /  70  40  20  10
PECOS...........................  57  84  55  89 /  70  40  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  81  46  85 /  80  50  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  49  77  46  82 /  80  70  40  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  80  48  85 /  70  50  30  20
TAOS............................  53  83  48  87 /  60  30  20   5
MORA............................  54  81  52  86 /  70  60  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  60  87  57  92 /  70  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  59  85  57  90 /  70  30  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  86  57  91 /  60  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  88  61  92 /  60  20  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  90  65  94 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  91  65  94 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  88  62  92 /  60  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  91  64  94 /  60  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  88  61  91 /  60  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  87  62  93 /  60  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  86  57  90 /  60  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  86  59  90 /  60  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  83  55  87 /  70  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  82  56  88 /  70  30  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  81  58  87 /  60  30  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  80  61  86 /  40  30  30   5
RUIDOSO.........................  62  79  61  84 /  40  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  64  86  60  91 /  50  60  40  20
RATON...........................  60  86  57  90 /  60  50  30  20
SPRINGER........................  58  86  55  89 /  60  40  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  81  53  86 /  60  40  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  63  84  61  91 /  50  50  40  10
ROY.............................  60  86  58  88 /  60  40  30  10
CONCHAS.........................  62  91  62  94 /  60  30  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  61  89  62  94 /  60  40  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  94  66  97 /  40  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  66  96 /  40  40  20  10
PORTALES........................  66  91  67  97 /  40  40  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  92  65  97 /  40  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  98  69 102 /  30  30  20   5
PICACHO.........................  64  87  62  91 /  40  40  30  10
ELK.............................  67  86  63  89 /  40  60  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-505>509-518>524-532-533.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-510>517-527>529.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 022140
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO NOTICEABLY FEWER STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTIABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM 18Z TO 00Z. STORM
MOTION WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO EAST...BUT SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC
AT TIMES. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCD FOR SITES IMPACTED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40KT FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  90  57  95 /  70  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  49  81  44  86 /  70  30  20   0
CUBA............................  53  83  51  89 /  60  30  20   0
GALLUP..........................  51  87  51  91 /  50  10   5   0
EL MORRO........................  52  86  50  90 /  60  10   5   5
GRANTS..........................  52  86  51  90 /  60  20  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  50  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  58  85  59  90 /  30  20  20   5
CHAMA...........................  48  81  44  86 /  80  50  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  86  56  91 /  70  40  20  10
PECOS...........................  57  84  55  89 /  70  40  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  81  46  85 /  80  50  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  49  77  46  82 /  80  70  40  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  80  48  85 /  70  50  30  20
TAOS............................  53  83  48  87 /  60  30  20   5
MORA............................  54  81  52  86 /  70  60  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  60  87  57  92 /  70  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  59  85  57  90 /  70  30  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  86  57  91 /  60  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  88  61  92 /  60  20  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  90  65  94 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  91  65  94 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  88  62  92 /  60  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  91  64  94 /  60  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  88  61  91 /  60  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  87  62  93 /  60  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  86  57  90 /  60  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  86  59  90 /  60  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  83  55  87 /  70  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  82  56  88 /  70  30  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  81  58  87 /  60  30  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  80  61  86 /  40  30  30   5
RUIDOSO.........................  62  79  61  84 /  40  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  64  86  60  91 /  50  60  40  20
RATON...........................  60  86  57  90 /  60  50  30  20
SPRINGER........................  58  86  55  89 /  60  40  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  81  53  86 /  60  40  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  63  84  61  91 /  50  50  40  10
ROY.............................  60  86  58  88 /  60  40  30  10
CONCHAS.........................  62  91  62  94 /  60  30  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  61  89  62  94 /  60  40  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  94  66  97 /  40  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  66  96 /  40  40  20  10
PORTALES........................  66  91  67  97 /  40  40  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  92  65  97 /  40  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  98  69 102 /  30  30  20   5
PICACHO.........................  64  87  62  91 /  40  40  30  10
ELK.............................  67  86  63  89 /  40  60  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-505>509-518>524-532-533.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-510>517-527>529.

&&

$$

41




000
FXUS65 KABQ 022140
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
BEFORE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVANCES WEST TO EAST BEGINNING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN
WITH A HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN HARD HIT THE PAST FEW DAYS. MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL MARK THE TRANSITION TO NOTICEABLY FEWER STORMS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARM TO HOT WEATHER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM
POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER DYNAMIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN PLACE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
COMPACT CLOSED UPPER LOW JUST WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY FILLING WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE
REGION OF DEFORMATION/STRETCHING WEST OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM SW WYOMING TO NE NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER
APPEARS TO OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF EL PASO. PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD...NEARING THE AZ/NM LINE AT THIS HOUR.
THIS DRY SLOT WAS COINCIDENT WITH A RESPECTIABLE 300MB 30-40KT
SPEED MAX ANALYZED OVER AZ THIS MORNING...AND PROVIDING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ON-GOING CONVECTION FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO NC/NE AREAS.

MODELS SIMILAR SHOWING THE COMPACT LOW/DEFORMATION BAND GRADUALLY
TRANSLATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AS RESULT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER IN RESPONSE AND ALLOW THE DRIER AIR TO MAKE
SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO WESTERN AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WC/SW ZONES. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ON EXPANDING SHRA/TSRA AND LOCALLY HEAVY QPF NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SLUGGISH DEFORMATION BAND TONIGHT. AREAS FROM
DULCE TO CHAMA SOUTH TOWARD THE JEMEZ...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES LOOK TO BE ESPECIALLY ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT POSSIBLY WELL
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY.

FOCUS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES TO THE NE QUARTER AND A LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE
WATCH. OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
GRRADUALLY RISING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
HIGHEST POPS NEAR/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND LIKE
TREND OF GOING ABOVE MACHINE NUMBERS FOR THE SW/SC MOUNTAINS AND
EVEN INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE DIVIDE.

TUE/WED WILL BE THE DRIEST/LEAST ACTIVE STRETCH OF DAYS THAT WE
HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS IF NOT THE ENTIRE SEASON. 596 DAM UPPER
HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY...CENTERED GENERALLY OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. NWLY STEERING FLOW WOULD FAVOR
THE NE...AND HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED MTN STORMS BUT
IT LOOKS TO SHUT DOWN IN A BIG WAY BY MID-WEEK. PREVIOUS SHIFT
CAPTURED WIDENING DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS...AND COULD SEE MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S RETURN FOR THE MORENO VALLEY. MORE ACTIVE LATE
WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE EAST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE UPPER HIGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHICH IS HELPING USHER IN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY WEST TO
EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC AT TIMES. EXPECT GUSTY TO ERRATIC
SURFACE WINDS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINTS AS STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING AS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLIDE. EXPECT HEAVY RAINS
TO OCCUR OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED GROUND WHICH WILL INCREASE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT DRY SLOT FILTERING
INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS PROCESS WILL GIVE WAY
TO A WARMER...DRIER TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE MONDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS WESTWARD USHERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.
STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO BUT WILL BE LESS ACTIVE EACH DAY. TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOVE NORMAL
FOLLOWING 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DECREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
MIDWEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BUT WILL TREND UPWARD TOWARD
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO GOOD AREAWIDE.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING
EASTWARD ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE WEST
INCREASING WETTING RAIN CHANCES NORTH AND WEST.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES TODAY IN THE NORTH...WITH AREA WIDE
IMPROVEMENT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM 18Z TO 00Z. STORM
MOTION WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO EAST...BUT SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC
AT TIMES. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCD FOR SITES IMPACTED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40KT FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  90  57  95 /  70  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  49  81  44  86 /  70  30  20   0
CUBA............................  53  83  51  89 /  60  30  20   0
GALLUP..........................  51  87  51  91 /  50  10   5   0
EL MORRO........................  52  86  50  90 /  60  10   5   5
GRANTS..........................  52  86  51  90 /  60  20  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  50  10  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  58  85  59  90 /  30  20  20   5
CHAMA...........................  48  81  44  86 /  80  50  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  86  56  91 /  70  40  20  10
PECOS...........................  57  84  55  89 /  70  40  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  81  46  85 /  80  50  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  49  77  46  82 /  80  70  40  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  80  48  85 /  70  50  30  20
TAOS............................  53  83  48  87 /  60  30  20   5
MORA............................  54  81  52  86 /  70  60  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  60  87  57  92 /  70  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  59  85  57  90 /  70  30  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  86  57  91 /  60  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  88  61  92 /  60  20  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  90  65  94 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  91  65  94 /  60  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  62  88  62  92 /  60  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  91  64  94 /  60  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  88  61  91 /  60  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  87  62  93 /  60  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  86  57  90 /  60  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  86  59  90 /  60  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  83  55  87 /  70  20  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  82  56  88 /  70  30  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  81  58  87 /  60  30  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  80  61  86 /  40  30  30   5
RUIDOSO.........................  62  79  61  84 /  40  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  64  86  60  91 /  50  60  40  20
RATON...........................  60  86  57  90 /  60  50  30  20
SPRINGER........................  58  86  55  89 /  60  40  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  54  81  53  86 /  60  40  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  63  84  61  91 /  50  50  40  10
ROY.............................  60  86  58  88 /  60  40  30  10
CONCHAS.........................  62  91  62  94 /  60  30  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  61  89  62  94 /  60  40  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  94  66  97 /  40  30  30  10
CLOVIS..........................  65  90  66  96 /  40  40  20  10
PORTALES........................  66  91  67  97 /  40  40  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  92  65  97 /  40  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  98  69 102 /  30  30  20   5
PICACHO.........................  64  87  62  91 /  40  40  30  10
ELK.............................  67  86  63  89 /  40  60  40  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-505>509-518>524-532-533.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ503-504-510>517-527>529.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM 18Z TO 00Z. STORM
MOTION WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO EAST...BUT SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC
AT TIMES. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCD FOR SITES IMPACTED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40KT FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED FROM PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL AFTN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL PEAK FROM 18Z TO 00Z. STORM
MOTION WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO EAST...BUT SLOW MOVING AND ERRATIC
AT TIMES. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/OCCASIONAL MTN
OBSCD FOR SITES IMPACTED BY STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...FOLLOWING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS NEAR 40KT FROM
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021120 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. UPPER HIGH CENTER VCNTY SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. LCL MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD CONVECTION THRU
17Z. THEREAFTER CONVECTION BECOMING SCT TO NMRS...WITH CELL
MOTION MAINLY TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SFC WND
GUSTS TO 35KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021120 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. UPPER HIGH CENTER VCNTY SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. LCL MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD CONVECTION THRU
17Z. THEREAFTER CONVECTION BECOMING SCT TO NMRS...WITH CELL
MOTION MAINLY TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SFC WND
GUSTS TO 35KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 021120 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. UPPER HIGH CENTER VCNTY SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. LCL MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD CONVECTION THRU
17Z. THEREAFTER CONVECTION BECOMING SCT TO NMRS...WITH CELL
MOTION MAINLY TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SFC WND
GUSTS TO 35KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 021120 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. UPPER HIGH CENTER VCNTY SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. LCL MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD CONVECTION THRU
17Z. THEREAFTER CONVECTION BECOMING SCT TO NMRS...WITH CELL
MOTION MAINLY TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH HEAVY RAIN IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH SFC WND
GUSTS TO 35KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020926
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TS/SHRA
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NM FROM THE
CONTDVD TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COULD TRACK NORTHWARD TO
AROUND SANTA FE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS TS/SHRA IS PROGGED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
LOWEST PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  60  89  57 /  40  50  20   5
DULCE...........................  76  51  80  46 /  70  70  30  10
CUBA............................  78  53  82  50 /  70  60  30  10
GALLUP..........................  82  54  86  52 /  50  50  20   5
EL MORRO........................  78  51  82  50 /  70  60  20  10
GRANTS..........................  81  54  84  53 /  60  60  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  78  54  84  53 /  50  50  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  84  59  87  59 /  40  30  10  10
CHAMA...........................  75  48  77  42 /  80  70  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  59  84  57 /  80  70  40  20
PECOS...........................  78  55  82  53 /  60  70  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  50  81  48 /  80  70  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  70  46  72  42 /  80  80  60  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  47  75  41 /  80  70  40  30
TAOS............................  79  52  82  48 /  50  50  30  20
MORA............................  75  52  80  50 /  80  70  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  82  57  88  53 /  50  70  30  20
SANTA FE........................  79  57  84  57 /  60  70  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  59  86  58 /  40  60  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  84  62  87  63 /  60  60  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  66  89  66 /  50  60  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  88  61  91  61 /  50  60  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  62  91  62 /  50  60  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  92  62 /  50  50  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  85  63  90  61 /  50  60  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  92  63 /  50  40  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  58  85  59 /  60  60  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  82  59  86  59 /  60  60  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  56  88  55 /  60  60  20  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  80  57  83  58 /  60  60  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  58  86  59 /  50  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  61  88  61 /  50  50  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  79  55  79  54 /  50  50  60  30
CAPULIN.........................  81  57  83  53 /  50  50  40  40
RATON...........................  83  59  85  54 /  60  50  40  30
SPRINGER........................  84  61  87  59 /  60  60  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  55  83  55 /  60  60  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  88  63  88  63 /  30  30  30  30
ROY.............................  85  61  86  60 /  50  50  40  30
CONCHAS.........................  91  67  93  67 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  90  65  92  64 /  60  60  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  66  93  68 /  50  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  91  66  91  67 /  50  40  30  30
PORTALES........................  92  67  92  68 /  50  40  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  67  94  67 /  50  40  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  96  69  97  69 /  30  30  30  30
PICACHO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  50  40  40  30
ELK.............................  83  60  83  60 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020926
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY OF VERY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND AS TEMPERATURES RISE THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH PERIODIC REDEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
FINALLY...INTO MONDAY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO NEW
MEXICO FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST WITH MUCH LESS OVERALL STORM ACTIVITY.
THIS DRIER PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH FEWER STORMS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE YESTERDAY`S ABQ BALLOON SOUNDING REVEALED A SLIGHT REDUCTION
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 1.03 INCH...ANALYZING RADAR STORM TOTALS
INDICATES THAT THE FOOTPRINT OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY AND LAST
EVENING WAS STILL FAIRLY WIDESPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEFTY TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEING COMMON.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE PWATS REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY...AND
THE NAM ACTUALLY REVEALS SOME IMPRESSIVE VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 THIS
AFTERNOON OVER MANY CENTRAL ZONES...INCLUDING THE ALBUQUERQUE
METRO AREA. THIS COUPLED WITH THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND
SATURATED SOILS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF YET ANOTHER FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR A LARGE CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OR SO. OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES OF NOTE WILL BE
THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NM AND A SPEED
MAXIMA WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE 300 MB WINDS
ARE PROJECTED TO REACH ALMOST 40 KT. THIS SPEED MAX COULD VENT
STORM UPDRAFTS...MAKING THEM A BIT MORE EFFICIENT WHILE ALSO
INTRODUCING SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WOULD ENHANCE SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPWARD MOTIONS. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE FROM THE SW TO NE OR
W TO E FOR THE MOST PART...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE MOTIONS WILL BE A BIT MORE ERRATIC AND
SLOW. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...RUNNING
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES.

INTO MONDAY THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ALOFT THAT IS CURRENTLY
WORKING INLAND OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BE SPREADING EAST
TOWARD NM. THIS WILL QUICKLY LOWER DEWPOINTS AND PWATS IN THE
WESTERN ZONES MONDAY...LIMITING STORM POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIALLY FROM
THE TRENDS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. STILL SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SHOULD BE MORE FOCUSED
TOWARD THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.

THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE AS THE DRY AIR FILTERS INTO REMAINING EASTERN
ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RATCHETED DOWN OVER THE
PAST FEW SHIFTS...AND SOME MINOR TWEAKS DOWN WERE ALSO CARRIED OUT
FOR THIS CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN...TEMPERATURES WILL OBSERVE LARGER DIURNAL SWINGS...FIRST IN
THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THEN INTO REMAINING ZONES
TUESDAY.

BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE DRIER AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
WHILE THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS UP SQUARELY OVER NM WITH
HEIGHTS RISING TO THE 594-595 DECAMETER RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTION...BUT SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO FIRE
OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP UP A FEW
DEGREES TOO.

INTO FRIDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC INTO CA.
THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SOMEWHAT DISCONNECTED FROM THE
POLAR JET THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...KEEPING A SLOWER AND FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK. THIS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SHOVING THE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE EAST OF NM WHILE DRAWING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD
FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND ULTIMATELY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO THE WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE REGION. CELL MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY TOWARDS THE EAST...ALTHOUGH SOME SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION
POSSIBLE. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A DRIER AND WARMER TREND...AND ARE EVEN
MORE BULLISH WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SPREADING ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DID NOT TOTALLY BUY INTO THE DEGREE OF
DRYING PROJECTED ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR WEST...BUT TUESDAY SEEMS MORE REASONABLE TO TREND MORE
TOWARD THE MODEL FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE DRIER
AIR TO OUR SOUTHWEST...BUT SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AND LESS DRY AIR
QUEUED UP WEST OF CA. THE DISTURBANCES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AND TO OUR NORTH...BUT THE SIZE OF THE DRY SLOT
APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING A BIT ATTM SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST...ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR
THE WEST MONDAY...AND FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRIER AIR WILL COME HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
AND A FORECAST OF HIGH HAINES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THOUGH WITH MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY ABOVE 15 PERCENT AND GOOD OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES.

RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE STILL ON TAP FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRIER WESTERLIES COULD RESUME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A STRONGER TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THAN THE ECMWF.

SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT RATES NORTH AND EAST TODAY AND
MONDAY WITH IMPROVEMENT OVERALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TS/SHRA
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NM FROM THE
CONTDVD TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COULD TRACK NORTHWARD TO
AROUND SANTA FE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS TS/SHRA IS PROGGED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
LOWEST PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  60  89  57 /  40  50  20   5
DULCE...........................  76  51  80  46 /  70  70  30  10
CUBA............................  78  53  82  50 /  70  60  30  10
GALLUP..........................  82  54  86  52 /  50  50  20   5
EL MORRO........................  78  51  82  50 /  70  60  20  10
GRANTS..........................  81  54  84  53 /  60  60  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  78  54  84  53 /  50  50  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  84  59  87  59 /  40  30  10  10
CHAMA...........................  75  48  77  42 /  80  70  40  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  59  84  57 /  80  70  40  20
PECOS...........................  78  55  82  53 /  60  70  30  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  50  81  48 /  80  70  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  70  46  72  42 /  80  80  60  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  47  75  41 /  80  70  40  30
TAOS............................  79  52  82  48 /  50  50  30  20
MORA............................  75  52  80  50 /  80  70  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  82  57  88  53 /  50  70  30  20
SANTA FE........................  79  57  84  57 /  60  70  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  81  59  86  58 /  40  60  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  84  62  87  63 /  60  60  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  66  89  66 /  50  60  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  88  61  91  61 /  50  60  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  62  91  62 /  50  60  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  92  62 /  50  50  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  85  63  90  61 /  50  60  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  92  63 /  50  40  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  58  85  59 /  60  60  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  82  59  86  59 /  60  60  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  56  88  55 /  60  60  20  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  80  57  83  58 /  60  60  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  58  86  59 /  50  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  61  88  61 /  50  50  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  79  55  79  54 /  50  50  60  30
CAPULIN.........................  81  57  83  53 /  50  50  40  40
RATON...........................  83  59  85  54 /  60  50  40  30
SPRINGER........................  84  61  87  59 /  60  60  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  81  55  83  55 /  60  60  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  88  63  88  63 /  30  30  30  30
ROY.............................  85  61  86  60 /  50  50  40  30
CONCHAS.........................  91  67  93  67 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  90  65  92  64 /  60  60  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  93  66  93  68 /  50  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  91  66  91  67 /  50  40  30  30
PORTALES........................  92  67  92  68 /  50  40  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  67  94  67 /  50  40  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  96  69  97  69 /  30  30  30  30
PICACHO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  50  40  40  30
ELK.............................  83  60  83  60 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>519-521>523-527>529-532-533.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020546 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TS/SHRA
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NM FROM THE
CONTDVD TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COULD TRACK NORTHWARD TO
AROUND SANTA FE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS TS/SHRA IS PROGGED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
LOWEST PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020352 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020352 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020352 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020352 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020010 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517-523-528-529-531>534.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 020010 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517-523-528-529-531>534.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 020010 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN ACTIVE TONIGHT WITH
SCT TO NMRS SHRA/TS THROUGH EVENING WITH WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY.
A DISTURBANCE PASSING NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND ANOTHER ONE
EXITING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACTIVE OVER W AND NE PARTS OF NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TRUSTED
MESOSCALE MODEL IS BRINGING ONE CLUSTER OF CELLS NEWD THROUGH THE
KABQ AND KSAF AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS
SHRA/TS IS PROGGED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517-523-528-529-531>534.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 012132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  60  89 /  60  40  40  10
DULCE...........................  51  78  50  81 /  70  60  60  20
CUBA............................  54  78  53  81 /  60  70  60  20
GALLUP..........................  56  82  54  85 /  50  40  40  20
EL MORRO........................  54  78  52  81 /  70  60  40  20
GRANTS..........................  56  81  54  83 /  50  50  40  20
QUEMADO.........................  55  78  54  83 /  50  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  84  59  87 /  30  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  50  75  49  77 /  70  70  70  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  78  59  81 /  70  70  80  30
PECOS...........................  54  78  55  80 /  60  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  76  51  79 /  60  70  70  30
RED RIVER.......................  47  67  47  70 /  70  80  70  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  49  70  48  73 /  70  80  70  40
TAOS............................  52  79  52  81 /  50  50  50  20
MORA............................  53  75  52  79 /  70  70  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  82  57  86 /  50  50  60  20
SANTA FE........................  58  79  58  82 /  50  50  50  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  81  59  85 /  40  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  84  63  87 /  40  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  85  67  88 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  88  63  91 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  91 /  30  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  87  63  91 /  40  30  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  64  87  64  90 /  40  40  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  92 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  59  84 /  40  40  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  60  82  59  85 /  40  40  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  84  56  86 /  40  40  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  80  58  83 /  40  30  50  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  82  59  86 /  30  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  87  61  88 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  79  57  80 /  40  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  81  57  83 /  50  40  50  20
RATON...........................  58  83  57  85 /  50  40  40  20
SPRINGER........................  59  84  59  87 /  50  30  50  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  81  55  83 /  60  40  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  88  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ROY.............................  61  85  60  86 /  50  30  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  67  91  67  94 /  50  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  90  65  93 /  50  20  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  93  66  95 /  40  20  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  93 /  40  20  30  20
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  94 /  40  20  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  92  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  96  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  90  63  91 /  40  30  20  20
ELK.............................  62  83  61  84 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  60  89 /  60  40  40  10
DULCE...........................  51  78  50  81 /  70  60  60  20
CUBA............................  54  78  53  81 /  60  70  60  20
GALLUP..........................  56  82  54  85 /  50  40  40  20
EL MORRO........................  54  78  52  81 /  70  60  40  20
GRANTS..........................  56  81  54  83 /  50  50  40  20
QUEMADO.........................  55  78  54  83 /  50  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  84  59  87 /  30  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  50  75  49  77 /  70  70  70  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  78  59  81 /  70  70  80  30
PECOS...........................  54  78  55  80 /  60  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  76  51  79 /  60  70  70  30
RED RIVER.......................  47  67  47  70 /  70  80  70  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  49  70  48  73 /  70  80  70  40
TAOS............................  52  79  52  81 /  50  50  50  20
MORA............................  53  75  52  79 /  70  70  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  82  57  86 /  50  50  60  20
SANTA FE........................  58  79  58  82 /  50  50  50  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  81  59  85 /  40  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  84  63  87 /  40  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  85  67  88 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  88  63  91 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  91 /  30  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  87  63  91 /  40  30  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  64  87  64  90 /  40  40  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  92 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  59  84 /  40  40  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  60  82  59  85 /  40  40  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  84  56  86 /  40  40  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  80  58  83 /  40  30  50  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  82  59  86 /  30  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  87  61  88 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  79  57  80 /  40  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  81  57  83 /  50  40  50  20
RATON...........................  58  83  57  85 /  50  40  40  20
SPRINGER........................  59  84  59  87 /  50  30  50  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  81  55  83 /  60  40  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  88  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ROY.............................  61  85  60  86 /  50  30  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  67  91  67  94 /  50  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  90  65  93 /  50  20  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  93  66  95 /  40  20  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  93 /  40  20  30  20
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  94 /  40  20  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  92  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  96  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  90  63  91 /  40  30  20  20
ELK.............................  62  83  61  84 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$

41




000
FXUS65 KABQ 012132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  60  89 /  60  40  40  10
DULCE...........................  51  78  50  81 /  70  60  60  20
CUBA............................  54  78  53  81 /  60  70  60  20
GALLUP..........................  56  82  54  85 /  50  40  40  20
EL MORRO........................  54  78  52  81 /  70  60  40  20
GRANTS..........................  56  81  54  83 /  50  50  40  20
QUEMADO.........................  55  78  54  83 /  50  40  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  84  59  87 /  30  40  40  20
CHAMA...........................  50  75  49  77 /  70  70  70  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  78  59  81 /  70  70  80  30
PECOS...........................  54  78  55  80 /  60  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  76  51  79 /  60  70  70  30
RED RIVER.......................  47  67  47  70 /  70  80  70  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  49  70  48  73 /  70  80  70  40
TAOS............................  52  79  52  81 /  50  50  50  20
MORA............................  53  75  52  79 /  70  70  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  57  82  57  86 /  50  50  60  20
SANTA FE........................  58  79  58  82 /  50  50  50  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  81  59  85 /  40  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  84  63  87 /  40  40  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  85  67  88 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  63  88  63  91 /  30  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  91 /  30  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  87  63  91 /  40  30  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  64  87  64  90 /  40  40  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  92 /  30  30  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  81  59  84 /  40  40  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  60  82  59  85 /  40  40  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  84  56  86 /  40  40  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  80  58  83 /  40  30  50  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  82  59  86 /  30  30  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  87  61  88 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  79  57  80 /  40  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  81  57  83 /  50  40  50  20
RATON...........................  58  83  57  85 /  50  40  40  20
SPRINGER........................  59  84  59  87 /  50  30  50  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  81  55  83 /  60  40  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  63  88  63  89 /  40  30  30  20
ROY.............................  61  85  60  86 /  50  30  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  67  91  67  94 /  50  20  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  64  90  65  93 /  50  20  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  67  93  66  95 /  40  20  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  93 /  40  20  30  20
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  94 /  40  20  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  92  67  95 /  30  20  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  69  96  69  97 /  20  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  90  63  91 /  40  30  20  20
ELK.............................  62  83  61  84 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK SFC LEE TROF. LINGERING CONVECTION THRU 16Z WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS/VBSYS IN SHRA AND BR. CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED
TO NMRS AFT 18Z...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH AND WEST.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK SFC LEE TROF. LINGERING CONVECTION THRU 16Z WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS/VBSYS IN SHRA AND BR. CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED
TO NMRS AFT 18Z...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH AND WEST.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK SFC LEE TROF. LINGERING CONVECTION THRU 16Z WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS/VBSYS IN SHRA AND BR. CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED
TO NMRS AFT 18Z...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH AND WEST.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 011120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD. ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE. WEAK SFC LEE TROF. LINGERING CONVECTION THRU 16Z WITH
LCL MVFR CIGS/VBSYS IN SHRA AND BR. CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED
TO NMRS AFT 18Z...FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN...NORTH AND WEST.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THEY GENERALLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 010946
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BROADLY PLACED OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTH CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
WHILE A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER NEW MEXICO. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND PERHAPS FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH CENTRAL
TO NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...SOME DRIER AIR COULD FILTER INTO THE
STATE...LOWERING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER TRICKY FORECAST IS IN THE WORKS FOR TODAY WITH REGARD TO
PINPOINTING HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS. HAVE OPTED TO HOIST ANOTHER
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING...ENCOMPASSING THE
NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS. PWATS MAY HAVE LOWERED A TENTH OR
TWO OF AN INCH...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL MOIST AND SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND MORE TRAINING CELLS ANTICIPATED. JUXTAPOSITION OF
HIGHEST THETA-E VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BROADER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHOULD STEER THE MOST STORM ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. WHILE CELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED OR PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED INTO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...THE SOILS HAVE BEEN MUCH MORE
SATURATED HERE DUE TO HEFTY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE
PAST FEW DAYS WITH MORE ONGOING CURRENTLY. WAS VERY TEMPTED TO
EXPAND THE WATCH TO THESE EASTERN AREAS FOR THIS REASONING...BUT
THIS WOULD BE SOMEWHAT CONTRADICTORY TO THE LOWER POP VALUES IN
PLACE NOW. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANSION.

THE NAM MODEL PAINTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN
OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM. THE GFS RETAINS MORE CONTINUITY WITH
PAST RUNS...SHOWING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE DUE TO
MEAGER REDUCTIONS IN MOISTURE. THE HIGH WOULD BE CONSOLIDATING
MORE ON SUNDAY...CENTERING TOWARD SOUTHERN NM WHILE ANY REDUCTION
IN PWATS OR OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WOULD BE SUBTLE.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH HIGH POPS...AND THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE EVALUATED CLOSELY AGAIN.

INTO MONDAY...DRIER AIR THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NM. THE NAM HAS BECOME VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DRYING TREND...REDUCING PWATS RAPIDLY DOWN TO
0.5 INCH IN MANY ZONES. HAVE NOT FULLY JUMPED ON BOARD WITH
THIS...AND HAVE LEFT SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS IN THE FORECAST
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS JUST ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE.

INTO THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS OVERALL SEEM TO BE DRIER
WITH THE HIGH BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL WHILE ORBITING NM. NOT
UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WHEN A PACIFIC LOW MOVES INLAND WOULD
THERE BE A BETTER CONNECTION TO THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FARTHER SOUTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A RECHARGE OF MOISTURE INTO NM
AND HIGHER POPS BY LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS SEEM
TO BE LACKING IN RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE PACIFIC LOW AND THIS WILL DICTATE HOW
OUR MOISTURE INTRUDES...IF AT ALL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CELL MOTION TODAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. A DISTURBANCE ON SUNDAY/MONDAY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN IT...AND IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME DRIER
AIR INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STATE MONDAY. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND MODELS ARE NOW
TRENDING DRIER BOTH DAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST OF NEW MEXICO LATE NEXT
WEEK...LEADING TO A RETURN OF THE MONSOON PLUME OF MOISTURE. THE
PLUME COULD ARRIVE AS SOON AS NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH
MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE IN
NUMBER.

MODELS HAVE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE DRIER DEW POINTS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OR SO...AS SFC
WESTERLY WIND FORECAST A LITTLE STRONGER. STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE
TREND TOTALLY TO THE EXTENT OF THE MODELS...GIVEN THE EXISTING
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...FORECAST HAINES IS HIGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NRN AND CENTRAL NM...SO WILL BE
MONITORING THIS TREND. DOESN/T LOOK TO DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY TO SHUT
DOWN ALL CONVECTION...BUT STORMS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS TIME.

HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO CLIMB TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
BY MONDAY...AND STAY THERE UNTIL THURSDAY...WHEN THEY START TO COOL.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED RETURN OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME. MIN RH VALUES DECREASE EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...BUT DON/T
FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR MOST LOCALES...AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
DIMINISH BUT OVERALL REMAIN GOOD. SOME AREAS OF FAIR TO POOR VENT
RATES FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...THEN OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN RATES MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. -SHRA CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SC/SE NM. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD SLOWLY...BUT STORMS ARE REGENERATING
OVER THE SAME AREA. SUSPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST 09-10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KSAF/KLVS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN. STORMS SHOULD START BY EARLY
AFTN AND SHOULD FAVOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  84  62  87  60 /  30  60  30  40
DULCE...........................  75  51  77  50 /  70  70  60  50
CUBA............................  77  53  80  53 /  60  60  60  60
GALLUP..........................  82  56  82  54 /  40  50  40  40
EL MORRO........................  78  53  78  52 /  50  70  50  50
GRANTS..........................  80  56  81  54 /  50  50  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  81  55  78  54 /  40  50  40  50
GLENWOOD........................  85  59  84  59 /  20  20  40  40
CHAMA...........................  72  49  76  48 /  80  70  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  78  60  79  60 /  80  70  70  70
PECOS...........................  75  53  78  54 /  60  60  60  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  75  51  77  51 /  60  60  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  68  47  69  46 /  70  70  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  48  72  47 /  70  70  70  70
TAOS............................  77  52  80  52 /  60  50  40  50
MORA............................  74  52  75  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  82  56  83  57 /  50  50  40  50
SANTA FE........................  80  58  80  58 /  60  50  50  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  59  82  59 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  84  63  84  64 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  67  85  68 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  62  87  63 /  30  30  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  63  86  64 /  30  30  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  87  63  88  63 /  30  40  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  85  64  86  64 /  30  30  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  90  63 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  59  81  59 /  50  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  60  82  59 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  56  84  56 /  50  40  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  58  80  58 /  60  40  30  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  59  82  58 /  50  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  86  61  86  60 /  50  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  77  55  79  55 /  70  40  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  82  57  81  56 /  60  50  40  40
RATON...........................  84  59  83  57 /  60  50  40  40
SPRINGER........................  84  60  84  60 /  60  50  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  56  81  55 /  70  60  30  50
CLAYTON.........................  85  63  88  63 /  70  40  20  30
ROY.............................  84  61  85  60 /  70  50  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  89  67  91  67 /  70  50  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  88  64  90  65 /  70  50  20  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  67  93  66 /  70  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  89  66  91  67 /  60  40  20  20
PORTALES........................  91  67  91  68 /  50  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  67  91  67 /  70  30  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  96  69  95  69 /  30  20  20  20
PICACHO.........................  89  63  89  63 /  50  40  30  20
ELK.............................  84  61  83  60 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. -SHRA CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SC/SE NM. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD SLOWLY...BUT STORMS ARE REGENERATING
OVER THE SAME AREA. SUSPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST 09-10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KSAF/KLVS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN. STORMS SHOULD START BY EARLY
AFTN AND SHOULD FAVOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...930 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. SHIFTED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON ONGOING AND EXPECTED
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS PASSED...AT LEAST FOR THE WATCH AREA ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD POCKETS ACROSS THE WC HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THEIR PREDICTION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS OVERNIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 010543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. -SHRA CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SC/SE NM. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD SLOWLY...BUT STORMS ARE REGENERATING
OVER THE SAME AREA. SUSPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST 09-10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KSAF/KLVS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN. STORMS SHOULD START BY EARLY
AFTN AND SHOULD FAVOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...930 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. SHIFTED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON ONGOING AND EXPECTED
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS PASSED...AT LEAST FOR THE WATCH AREA ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD POCKETS ACROSS THE WC HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THEIR PREDICTION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS OVERNIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. -SHRA CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SC/SE NM. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD SLOWLY...BUT STORMS ARE REGENERATING
OVER THE SAME AREA. SUSPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST 09-10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KSAF/KLVS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN. STORMS SHOULD START BY EARLY
AFTN AND SHOULD FAVOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...930 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. SHIFTED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON ONGOING AND EXPECTED
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS PASSED...AT LEAST FOR THE WATCH AREA ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD POCKETS ACROSS THE WC HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THEIR PREDICTION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS OVERNIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 010543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. -SHRA CONTINUES
ACROSS FAR WESTERN NM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH ENTIRELY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS. SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS SC/SE NM. INDIVIDUAL STORMS
APPEAR TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD SLOWLY...BUT STORMS ARE REGENERATING
OVER THE SAME AREA. SUSPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU AT
LEAST 09-10Z. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AT
KSAF/KLVS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTN. STORMS SHOULD START BY EARLY
AFTN AND SHOULD FAVOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND
MT OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...930 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. SHIFTED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON ONGOING AND EXPECTED
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS PASSED...AT LEAST FOR THE WATCH AREA ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD POCKETS ACROSS THE WC HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THEIR PREDICTION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS OVERNIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 010330
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
930 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. SHIFTED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON ONGOING AND EXPECTED
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS PASSED...AT LEAST FOR THE WATCH AREA ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD POCKETS ACROSS THE WC HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THEIR PREDICTION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS OVERNIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KTCC SHOULD BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY...AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLISIONS IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA SHOULD IGNITE STORMS AROUND KAEG/KABQ. STORM MOTIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5-10KT
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. THUS...EXPECT UPDATES. MVFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KSAF ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CLEARS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 010330
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
930 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED STORM COVERAGE WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST. SHIFTED THE
HIGHER POPS FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON ONGOING AND EXPECTED
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THE MAIN HEAVY RAIN
THREAT HAS PASSED...AT LEAST FOR THE WATCH AREA ALTHOUGH CANT
RULE OUT ISOLD POCKETS ACROSS THE WC HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE...THE
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTH. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH THEIR PREDICTION OF
THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS OVERNIGHT.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KTCC SHOULD BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY...AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLISIONS IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA SHOULD IGNITE STORMS AROUND KAEG/KABQ. STORM MOTIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5-10KT
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. THUS...EXPECT UPDATES. MVFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KSAF ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CLEARS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50





000
FXUS65 KABQ 312335 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KTCC SHOULD BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY...AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLISIONS IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA SHOULD IGNITE STORMS AROUND KAEG/KABQ. STORM MOTIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5-10KT
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. THUS...EXPECT UPDATES. MVFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KSAF ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CLEARS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ503>518-521>523-527>534-537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 312335 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KTCC SHOULD BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY...AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLISIONS IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA SHOULD IGNITE STORMS AROUND KAEG/KABQ. STORM MOTIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5-10KT
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. THUS...EXPECT UPDATES. MVFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KSAF ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CLEARS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ503>518-521>523-527>534-537.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 312335 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KTCC SHOULD BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY...AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLISIONS IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA SHOULD IGNITE STORMS AROUND KAEG/KABQ. STORM MOTIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5-10KT
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. THUS...EXPECT UPDATES. MVFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KSAF ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CLEARS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ503>518-521>523-527>534-537.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 312335 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
535 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM OVERNIGHT. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN HEAVY RAIN. KTCC SHOULD BE IMPACTED
SHORTLY...AND MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COLLISIONS IN THE ABQ
METRO AREA SHOULD IGNITE STORMS AROUND KAEG/KABQ. STORM MOTIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5-10KT
WITH STORMS ACROSS THE EAST MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10-15KT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH WHERE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...AND WHEN IT WILL OCCUR. THUS...EXPECT UPDATES. MVFR
CIGS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT NEAR KLVS AND KSAF ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION CLEARS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...FAVORING NORTHERN AND WESTERN NM.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM DAY IS UNDERWAY WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A DOWNTREND
EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. THE DOWNTREND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UP TO NEAR NORMAL WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL
EAST. A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE
NEXT WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN STORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.33"...WHICH IS
WAY ABOVE NORMAL AND ONLY 0.04" AWAY FROM MATCHING THE DAILY
RECORD VALUE OF 1.37". THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOISTURE-LOADED TO SAY
THE LEAST AND AN EARLY START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOW CLOUD BASES ARE THE PROOF. STORMS SO FAR HAVE PRODUCED LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH IN 30 MINUTES. WILL
LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS-IS...ALTHOUGH WAS TEMPTED TO
INCLUDE THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHICH WILL BE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
DEPENDENT FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

ANOTHER ROBUST ROUND OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW BEFORE A DOWNTREND BEGINS SUNDAY. BOTH THE 12Z
NAM AND GFS SHOW A MULTI-DAY DOWNTREND IN PWATS...TO BELOW NORMAL
BY LATE MONDAY. THE 12Z GFS BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO
GOING INTO MIDWEEK WITH DRY AIR WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH CIRCULATION ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNTREND IN THUNDERSTORMS BY TUE/WED AND CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK TO NORMAL WEST
AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST. BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME REDEVELOPING LATE WEEK WITH THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING
EAST A BIT. OUR POPS FOR FRIDAY ARE UP COMPARED TO THURSDAY TO
REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL CHANGE...BUT STILL GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO
FOR EARLY AUGUST.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WITH ABUNDANT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...YIELDING SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN FAIR TO POOR THANKS TO THE
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

AN IMPACTFUL PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THAT WILL START A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION WILL
ROUND THE HIGH EARLY SUNDAY...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS MOVEMENT
WILL ACT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE WHILE DRAWING IN DRIER AIR INTO THE
STATE. SUNDAY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...THOUGH
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND PRECIP FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
NM. BY MONDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
WHILE WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...FOCUSING
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CIRCULATION PASSAGE WILL ALSO
ASSIST VENT RATES TO BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT BY MONDAY.

THE DRIER AND WARMER PATTERN WILL HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER SITS OVER THE STATE AND DRIER
AIR UNDERNEATH IT. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO SEE NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEST AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST...IMPROVED
MIXING HEIGHTS WITH GOOD VENT RATES...AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR WETTING
PRECIP EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LONG RANGE MODELS HINT THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL RETURN BEGINNING
LATE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. CURRENT CONSENSUS HAS THE PLUME WORKING UP TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NM LATE FRIDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A
RESULT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ503>518-521>523-527>534-537.

&&

$$




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