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000
FXUS65 KABQ 230000 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST AREAS THROUGH PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BEST
CHANCES EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS...INCLUDING THE PECOS VALLEY AND KROW AND EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER. MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE THERE. LOCAL FOG OR FREEZING
FOG POSSIBLE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING KAXX...THE
EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INCLUDING KCQC...AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS ON THURSDAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.

VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.

MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

32/43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 222115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BRINGING SPECTACULAR WEATHER
TO THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A FEW NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER
BY SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL TREND STRONGER AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE. COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST RADAR SHOWS JUST A COUPLE VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE PLAINS. 20Z LAPS DATA
INDICATES ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS HOWEVER A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT IS ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW
550MB. THE 18Z NAM12 AND HRRR INDICATE THE BULK OF ANY STORMS WILL
FOCUS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND AROUND SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY.
OTHERWISE...WHAT FEW CLOUDS EXIST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN NM WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE EAST WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS HOLDING STRONG.
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
FAVOR AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE PECOS AND ESTANCIA VALLEYS...AS WELL
AS ALONG THE CAPROCK.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS 700MB VALUES RISE
TO NEAR +10C. THIS IS NEAR THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE OCTOBER.
THE H5 RIDGE THEN CRESTS OVER NM AT 591DM AND DELIVERS A REALLY
SPECTACULAR FRIDAY. 700MB TEMPS PEAK OUT NEAR +12C WHICH IS +2
STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR RECORD ACROSS THE
EAST WITH LOTS OF MID 80S. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO STAY
IN PLACE AND LEE TROUGHING REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK SO NOT REALLY
EXPECTING RECORDS. BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING IN THE EAST. HIGHS CERTAINLY MAY NEAR 90F IN THE
AREA AROUND TUCUMCARI. ELSEWHERE...IT WILL REMAIN SUNNY AND WARM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT FROM MODELS WHICH
INDICATES FAST ZONAL FLOW OVER NM. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED WARM
TEMPS OVER THE EAST WITH KATABATIC FLOW. SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE WIND
DRIVEN CIRCULATION MAY CREATE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ON THE EAST
SLOPES BOTH DAYS. 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE WEST WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES. THE DGEX AND ECMWF DO SHOW ENOUGH MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS FOR A COUPLE HIGH TERRAIN
SHOWERS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL BEGIN A DRYING TREND LATE TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK
FOR WARMING DAYTIME HIGHS...UP AND DOWN VENTILATION RATES...AND A
DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES WITH BREEZY WESTERLIES.

VERY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWNSLOPE TOWARD THE EASTERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THE EARLY EVENING. VERY LITTLE WETTING
RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM SPOTTY STORMS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY
BRINGING US WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FOLLOWING A DOWNTREND IN HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR ON FRIDAY BUT RATES LOOK TO IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. HAINES VALUES WILL
ALSO TREND UPWARD...WITH 5S EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BECAUSE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. COULD SEE MARGINALLY
CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS WEST CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY A LITTLE ABOVE
CRITICAL CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A COOLING TREND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE.

MODELS DIFFER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ABOUT WETTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. GFS IS DRIER WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE STATE WHILE ECMWF IS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS A REMAINING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE STATE.

32/43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
AMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.

32/43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  33  70  32  73 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  39  71  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  36  73  36  76 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  35  70  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  37  72  35  75 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  41  70  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  40  78  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  31  67  30  69 /   5   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  68  46  72 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  42  67  42  71 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  35  69  34  72 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  33  59  34  63 /  10   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  30  64  31  69 /  10   0   0   0
TAOS............................  35  69  32  73 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  40  68  40  73 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  45  73  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  44  68  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  72  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  72  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  75  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  75  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  76  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  46  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  46  73  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  74  38  76 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  43  71  44  74 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  70  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  74  46  76 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  44  71  46  73 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  43  70  45  76 /  10   0   0   0
RATON...........................  40  74  40  78 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  38  74  38  80 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  73  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  49  76  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
ROY.............................  45  74  45  78 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  50  81  49  83 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  79  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  82  50  85 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  51  78  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  51  79  51  82 /  10   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  51  79  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  47  76  48  78 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  71  47  73 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 221757 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
ADMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.


32/43

.PREV DISCUSSION...1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 221757 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KROW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR AFTER
19Z. OTHERWISE VFR ELSEWHERE. A FEW AFTN ISOLATED STORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE MTNS BUT WILL DIMINISH DOWN SLOPE TOWARD THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE OF VCSH OR VCTS FOR SITES BUT WILL
ADMEND IF NECESSARY. AREAS NEAR KROW WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR FG AFTER
06Z WITH EVEN LOWER POTENTIAL OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.


32/43

.PREV DISCUSSION...1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 221636 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 221636 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1036 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
LOWERED POPS AND SKY COVER FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NM FOR THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. FOCUSED GREATEST CHANCES ALONG EAST SLOPES OF SACRAMENTO
MTS TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE. 12Z RAOB AT FLAGSTAFF INDICATED DRIER
AIR AND RIDGING ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION TODAY...WHILE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL HOLDS STRONG. LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 SOLUTIONS SHOW
SPRINKLE TYPE ACTIVITY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. EVEN IF ANY
SHOWERS DO POP AROUND CENTRAL MTS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
VERY LITTLE QPF. BEST SHOT AT WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE OVER THE FAR
SOUTHEAST.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 221143 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
543 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A MIXED BAG OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS MORNING. KLVS HAS IMPROVED TO VFR AND WILL
LIKELY STAY THERE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING IFR
CONDITIONS AT KROW WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BY 19Z. LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT
KTCC...BUT MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE TERMINAL OFF-AND-ON
THROUGH 15Z. IFR CIGS AT KSAF THIS MORNING MAY LOWER TO THE
GROUND BETWEEN 06-08Z...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PERSIST AT KFMN...KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 220930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH PASSAGE THIS MORNING BEFORE A DRIER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS MOVES IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY...A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
THROUGH EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN 10-15F MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK...NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NM EARLY THIS
MORNING. DRIER AIR ALOFT ALREADY WORKING INTO WRN NM AND WITH
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS SURFACE HEATING
WILL BE STRONGER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS BUT THEY`LL HAVE TO
FIGHT THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRAILING SHORT- WAVE/SPEED MAX IN THE DEVELOPING NW
FLOW ALOFT OVER FAR NE NM MAY HELP GET A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF FOG LIKELY IN THE MORENO VALLEY AND ESTANCIA
BASIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS AS INCREASING TEMPERATURES ALOFT CREATE
VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE RULE ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH INCHES NEWD FROM SRN AZ. THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SMACK DAB OVER CENTRAL NM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
FLIRT WITH NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMER DAY AS SWLY BREEZES DUE TO A
STRENGTHENING LEE SFC TROUGH RESULT IN DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS. EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS FROM CLAYTON SOUTH TO TUCUMCARI...CLOVIS/PORTALES AND
ROSWELL COULD REACH OR EXCEED THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE.

SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TRANSITIONS TO WLY ON SUNDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH WRN AND CENTRAL NM SUNDAY...BRINGING A COOL DOWN OF ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER/COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES FURTHER. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING
MORE IN LINE WITH REGARD THE THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME...KEEPING IT AS AN OPEN WAVE
AND MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW TO FAR NORTHERN NM. MODELS BECOME
COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS LOW.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRYING/WARMING TREND TO KICK-OFF TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE GOING FLAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT WETTING
POTENTIAL IS DOWN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. VENTILATION
WILL BE A MIXED-BAG TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UP TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HUMIDITY TRENDING DOWN TO WITHIN 5 PERCENT OF CRITICAL
THRESHOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY. VENT RATES WILL TREND
DOWN AS WELL...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA STAYING POOR ON FRIDAY.
VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN HIGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE WESTERLIES PUNCHING INTO THE STATE. HAINES INDICES WILL
TREND UP GOING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY 5S FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...INCLUDING THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
A COOL-DOWN FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL.

NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS CYCLE...BUT BRIEF
HITS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  71  42  73  42 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  67  33  71  31 /  10   5   0   0
CUBA............................  69  39  72  38 /  20   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  70  36  73  36 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  66  36  69  33 /   5   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  70  36  74  35 /   5   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  40  70  41 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  74  40  77  41 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  64  31  67  30 /  10   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  66  46  69  46 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  64  42  67  43 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  67  35  69  34 /  10   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  56  38  60  39 /  20   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  62  28  65  28 /  20   5   0   0
TAOS............................  67  34  70  32 /  10   0   0   0
MORA............................  66  39  69  40 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  71  46  75  46 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  66  44  69  45 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  44  73  44 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  48  73  48 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  50  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  46  76  46 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  49  77  49 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  43  76  42 /  20   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  73  48  78  48 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  75  47  77  48 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  68  41  75  43 /  10   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  69  40  74  41 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  35  74  34 /  20   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  43  71  44 /  20   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  67  45  71  46 /  20   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  70  45  74  46 /  10   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  67  44  71  46 /  20   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  67  42  70  45 /  20   5   0   0
RATON...........................  71  40  74  41 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  71  38  75  39 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  69  40  73  41 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  79  52 /  10  10   0   0
ROY.............................  70  44  76  47 /  10   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  76  50  81  50 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  76  49  80  50 /  20   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  51  84  51 /  20  10   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  70  50  79  50 /  40  10   0   0
PORTALES........................  71  51  80  51 /  40  20   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  72  51  79  50 /  30  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  74  50  81  50 /  20  10   0   0
PICACHO.........................  69  47  75  48 /  20   5   0   0
ELK.............................  65  46  70  47 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 220151 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTSM MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NE AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34











000
FXUS65 KABQ 212348
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTSM MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NE AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 212118
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST AS WELL AS THE SE PLAINS AS OF
MIDDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OR EVEN RISE TO VFR
LEVELS ALL AREAS AFTER 19Z OR 20Z. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WHERE MVFR AND VERY ISOLATED
BRIEF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT ROW AND TO LESSER DEGREE LVS...TCC...AND SAF.
ACROSS WEST HALF OF NM VFR BY FAR WILL BE THE RULE WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND -TSRA. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT ROW OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACT TCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SMALL HAIL.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  45  70  41  73 /  20   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  37  67  31  70 /  30  30   5   0
CUBA............................  40  68  37  70 /  30  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  38  70  34  72 /  20   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  36  66  32  68 /  30  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  38  70  34  72 /  30  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  41  66  39  68 /  20  10   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  37  73  38  76 /  10   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  65  28  67 /  40  30   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  65  45  67 /  30  20   5   0
PECOS...........................  42  64  41  66 /  30  20   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  66  33  68 /  30  20   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  29  56  25  59 /  40  20  10   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  62  25  64 /  40  20   5   0
TAOS............................  37  67  31  68 /  30  20   0   0
MORA............................  40  65  38  68 /  30  20   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  46  71  44  73 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA FE........................  44  64  43  67 /  30  20   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  70  42  71 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  69  48  72 /  20  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  72  49  74 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  74  43  75 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  74  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  73  41  75 /  20  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  74  47  76 /  20  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  74  47  76 /  20  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  69  44  71 /  30  20   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  47  70  45  72 /  30  20   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  70  35  72 /  30  30  10   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  67  42  69 /  30  30  10   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  67  45  69 /  30  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  69  43  72 /  30  20   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  40  66  43  69 /  40  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  45  67  42  69 /  20  20  10   0
RATON...........................  43  70  39  73 /  20  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  43  71  38  73 /  20  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  68  39  71 /  30  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  49  72  49  74 /  10  20  10   0
ROY.............................  47  69  44  72 /  20  20  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  52  76  50  78 /  20  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  51  74  50  77 /  30  20   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  76  50  79 /  20  30  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  52  68  50  75 /  40  40  10   0
PORTALES........................  52  68  50  75 /  40  40  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  71  51  76 /  30  30  10   0
ROSWELL.........................  52  70  49  76 /  40  30  10   0
PICACHO.........................  46  67  46  72 /  40  30  10   0
ELK.............................  45  62  45  67 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 211802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST AS WELL AS THE SE PLAINS AS OF
MIDDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OR EVEN RISE TO VFR
LEVELS ALL AREAS AFTER 19Z OR 20Z. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WHERE MVFR AND VERY ISOLATED
BRIEF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT ROW AND TO LESSER DEGREE LVS...TCC...AND SAF.
ACROSS WEST HALF OF NM VFR BY FAR WILL BE THE RULE WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND -TSRA. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT ROW OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACT TCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SMALL HAIL.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33















000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33
















000
FXUS65 KABQ 210528
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 210528
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 202338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT 00Z SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 21/03Z. LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP BY 21/12Z AND STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 202338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT 00Z SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 21/03Z. LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP BY 21/12Z AND STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/42







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/42






000
FXUS65 KABQ 201750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER.

GUYER

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 201750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER.

GUYER

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 201750
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER.

GUYER

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 201132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KROW THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z...THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGUP...KFMN AND KTCC
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OF THOSE
THREE SITES...KGUP HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS
AND WET SURFACES FROM RAIN YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TODAY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33










000
FXUS65 KABQ 201132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KROW THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z...THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGUP...KFMN AND KTCC
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OF THOSE
THREE SITES...KGUP HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS
AND WET SURFACES FROM RAIN YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TODAY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 200932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY
BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  48  67  45 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  68  38  62  38 /  20  10  20  50
CUBA............................  68  42  63  40 /  20  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  67  42  64  38 /  20  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  63  37  60  36 /  30  10  30  40
GRANTS..........................  68  40  64  38 /  20  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  62  44  60  42 /  30  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  69  38  69  34 /  50  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  64  33  59  33 /  30  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  47  61  46 /  30  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  63  41  57  41 /  30  20  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  38  63  38 /  30  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  56  40  53  39 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  58  30 /  40  20  30  40
TAOS............................  66  38  63  39 /  30  10  10  30
MORA............................  63  40  60  40 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  70  47  67  47 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  66  44  61  43 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  45  65  42 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  49  65  48 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  51  67  50 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  47  69  46 /  10  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  50  68  50 /  10  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  69  41 /  20  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  73  49  68  49 /  10  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  72  48  69  46 /  40  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  42  61  41 /  30  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  68  44  62  39 /  30  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  36  64  35 /  30  20  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  41  61  41 /  40  20  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  44  63  43 /  40  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  43  66  42 /  40  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  39  63  38 /  60  20  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  67  45  65  46 /  10  10  20  20
RATON...........................  70  42  68  43 /  10  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  70  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  40  61  40 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  71  49  72  51 /   5  10   5  10
ROY.............................  69  46  65  47 /   5  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  75  51  72  51 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  68  48 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  72  49  70  51 /  20  20  10  30
PORTALES........................  71  49  70  51 /  30  20  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  50  68  52 /  20  20  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  52  67  52 /  50  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  65  47  62  49 /  50  20  30  30
ELK.............................  60  43  58  43 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 200932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY
BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  48  67  45 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  68  38  62  38 /  20  10  20  50
CUBA............................  68  42  63  40 /  20  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  67  42  64  38 /  20  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  63  37  60  36 /  30  10  30  40
GRANTS..........................  68  40  64  38 /  20  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  62  44  60  42 /  30  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  69  38  69  34 /  50  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  64  33  59  33 /  30  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  47  61  46 /  30  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  63  41  57  41 /  30  20  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  38  63  38 /  30  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  56  40  53  39 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  58  30 /  40  20  30  40
TAOS............................  66  38  63  39 /  30  10  10  30
MORA............................  63  40  60  40 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  70  47  67  47 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  66  44  61  43 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  45  65  42 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  49  65  48 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  51  67  50 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  47  69  46 /  10  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  50  68  50 /  10  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  69  41 /  20  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  73  49  68  49 /  10  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  72  48  69  46 /  40  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  42  61  41 /  30  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  68  44  62  39 /  30  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  36  64  35 /  30  20  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  41  61  41 /  40  20  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  44  63  43 /  40  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  43  66  42 /  40  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  39  63  38 /  60  20  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  67  45  65  46 /  10  10  20  20
RATON...........................  70  42  68  43 /  10  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  70  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  40  61  40 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  71  49  72  51 /   5  10   5  10
ROY.............................  69  46  65  47 /   5  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  75  51  72  51 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  68  48 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  72  49  70  51 /  20  20  10  30
PORTALES........................  71  49  70  51 /  30  20  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  50  68  52 /  20  20  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  52  67  52 /  50  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  65  47  62  49 /  50  20  30  30
ELK.............................  60  43  58  43 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33















000
FXUS65 KABQ 200547
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY BR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...742 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXACTLY
CONDUCIVE...HOWEVER LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY FROM RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO I-40 WITH A FEW
PATCHES IN SOME WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS WILL ALSO BE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MESHED WITH SHORT TERM
PROGS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL. THIS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 200547
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY BR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...742 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXACTLY
CONDUCIVE...HOWEVER LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY FROM RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO I-40 WITH A FEW
PATCHES IN SOME WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS WILL ALSO BE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MESHED WITH SHORT TERM
PROGS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL. THIS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200142
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
742 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXACTLY
CONDUCIVE...HOWEVER LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY FROM RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO I-40 WITH A FEW
PATCHES IN SOME WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS WILL ALSO BE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MESHED WITH SHORT TERM
PROGS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL. THIS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...552 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVER
NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW NM TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR LATER
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. OTHER SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL NM SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BUT SOME INDICATION
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AFT 06Z.
BAND OF TSTMS FROM KSAF TO KCQC MAY PUSH A GUSTY EAST WIND TO KABQ
APPROXIMATELY 01Z-04Z. MOVEMENT OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ERRATIC AT TIMES. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN
CONVECTION WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFT 06Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PCPN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OBSCG MTS ALSO POSSIBLE WRN MTS AFT 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
742 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXACTLY
CONDUCIVE...HOWEVER LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY FROM RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO I-40 WITH A FEW
PATCHES IN SOME WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS WILL ALSO BE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MESHED WITH SHORT TERM
PROGS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL. THIS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...552 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVER
NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW NM TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR LATER
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. OTHER SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL NM SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BUT SOME INDICATION
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AFT 06Z.
BAND OF TSTMS FROM KSAF TO KCQC MAY PUSH A GUSTY EAST WIND TO KABQ
APPROXIMATELY 01Z-04Z. MOVEMENT OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ERRATIC AT TIMES. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN
CONVECTION WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFT 06Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PCPN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OBSCG MTS ALSO POSSIBLE WRN MTS AFT 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 200142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
742 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO ADD SOME FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH AS SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXACTLY
CONDUCIVE...HOWEVER LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
WITH WET SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL FOCUS ON AREAS
MAINLY FROM RUIDOSO TO ROSWELL NORTHWARD TO I-40 WITH A FEW
PATCHES IN SOME WESTERN ZONES POSSIBLE AS WELL. POPS WILL ALSO BE
TWEAKED TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS MESHED WITH SHORT TERM
PROGS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL AND LOCAL WRF
MODEL. THIS WILL FAVOR SOUTHWESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...552 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK TO
THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE OVER
NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW NM TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 06Z OR LATER
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. OTHER SHOWERS AND TSTMS CURRENTLY OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL NM SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 02Z BUT SOME INDICATION
CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AFT 06Z.
BAND OF TSTMS FROM KSAF TO KCQC MAY PUSH A GUSTY EAST WIND TO KABQ
APPROXIMATELY 01Z-04Z. MOVEMENT OF MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ERRATIC AT TIMES. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN
CONVECTION WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 35KT AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS.
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFT 06Z IN
ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND PCPN. PATCHY MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS OBSCG MTS ALSO POSSIBLE WRN MTS AFT 10Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRYING AND WARMING LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

STORM NUMBER TWO MOVING INTO SONORA WITH A GOOD SUPPLY OF MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST
AND PRETTY MUCH BE GONE BY TUESDAY. BUT THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND HELP CONTINUE PULLING MOISTURE
NORTH INTO NM. THUS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRYING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY
WITH THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF WEAK CIRCULATIONS OVER NM THIS AFTERNOON HELPING TO
PRODUCE A DECENT CROP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM. MEANWHILE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN
SONORA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BECOMING HARD TO FIND BY TUESDAY.
BUT IT WILL BE ABLE TO PULL MORE MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE
BETWEEN NOW AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONTO THE CA COAST MONDAY AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY BEFORE
CROSSING NM WED...HELPING TO KEEP THE MOISTURE TAP COMING INTO NM.
THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ASIDE FROM THE VICINITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO DRIER AND MILDER CONDITIONS LATER
IN THE WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS.
THESE TWO MODELS HAVE COME TO AN AGREEMENT OF A MORE PROGRESS
TROUGH CROSSING NM WEDNESDAY WITH DRYING AFTER THAT. THE CANADIAN
MODEL STILL INSISTS ON A SLOWER AND DEEPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH NOT
AS POTENT AS ITS PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH
THE GFS AND NOW THE EUROPEAN. TRIMMED POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS SHARPLY OVER NM FRIDAY IS NOW
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY NEXT WEEKEND AS INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WIND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT UPSTREAM
TROUGH MAY REACH NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE OVERALL STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE MOIST AND COOL TO START WITH
A BIG DRYING AND WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.

CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED
STORMS IS SHIFTING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN NM...WHILE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MOST AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ARE PICKING UP WETTING RAINFALL. FARTHER NORTH STORMS ARE
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SECOND WAVE
OF RAIN WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD/EXCELLENT ALL AREAS WITH EVEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG FOR THE EAST. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BOTH FEATURE
MORE RAIN/STORM CHANCES...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN.

RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WILL TREND A FEW
DEGREES WARMER BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL BE
RELATIVELY HIGH AS MOISTURE SLOWLY SCOURS OUT OF THE LOWER TERRAIN.
VENT RATES WILL BE THE BEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AND WARM TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND MUCH
LOWER BOTH DAYS. THE MAIN ISSUES WILL BE WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES
WITH HARDLY ANY WIND ALOFT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES AND TEMPS WILL
BE RELEGATED BY STRONG NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE RIDGE IS NOW SHOWN
TO BREAK DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AS A PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
ONCE AGAIN...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






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