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000
FXUS65 KABQ 191130 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MTS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL REACH KTCC. REDUCED
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA THAT REACHES TERMINAL SITE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 191130 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MTS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL REACH KTCC. REDUCED
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA THAT REACHES TERMINAL SITE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  54  88  59 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  82  45  88  48 /  10  10  10  20
CUBA............................  80  49  85  51 /  20  10  10  20
GALLUP..........................  82  49  85  51 /  10  10  10  20
EL MORRO........................  75  49  78  51 /  20  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  79  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  74  51  79  52 /  20  10  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  80  52  87  52 /  20  20  30  20
CHAMA...........................  78  42  80  44 /  10  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  55  81  56 /  20  10  10  20
PECOS...........................  71  52  78  52 /  30  20  10  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  47  78  48 /  20  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  68  45  68  44 /  20  10  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  38  73  38 /  20  10  10  30
TAOS............................  74  47  80  48 /  20  10  10  20
MORA............................  71  49  78  49 /  30  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  80  54  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  74  54  80  54 /  30  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  53  84  53 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  80  59  84  62 /  20  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  80  61  86  62 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  82  60  87  60 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  60  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  82  57  86  58 /  20  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  84  59  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  83  61  89  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  56  84  57 /  30  10  10  30
TIJERAS.........................  79  55  83  58 /  30  10  10  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  47  82  49 /  40  20  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  54  75  53 /  40  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  54  78  58 /  40  20  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  58  81  60 /  40  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  71  53  76  53 /  50  30  20  50
CAPULIN.........................  74  50  75  53 /  20  20  10  20
RATON...........................  79  49  82  51 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  77  51  83  53 /  20  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  49  79  51 /  40  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  76  59  79  57 /  20  20  20  10
ROY.............................  73  55  78  56 /  40  20  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  81  62 /  50  30  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  74  60  80  61 /  50  30  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  81  62 /  50  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  73  61  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
PORTALES........................  74  64  78  63 /  70  50  40  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  62  80  63 /  50  40  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  78  64  82  65 /  50  40  20  40
PICACHO.........................  73  58  78  61 /  50  40  20  50
ELK.............................  71  56  74  57 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 190933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  54  88  59 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  82  45  88  48 /  10  10  10  20
CUBA............................  80  49  85  51 /  20  10  10  20
GALLUP..........................  82  49  85  51 /  10  10  10  20
EL MORRO........................  75  49  78  51 /  20  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  79  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  74  51  79  52 /  20  10  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  80  52  87  52 /  20  20  30  20
CHAMA...........................  78  42  80  44 /  10  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  55  81  56 /  20  10  10  20
PECOS...........................  71  52  78  52 /  30  20  10  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  47  78  48 /  20  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  68  45  68  44 /  20  10  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  38  73  38 /  20  10  10  30
TAOS............................  74  47  80  48 /  20  10  10  20
MORA............................  71  49  78  49 /  30  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  80  54  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  74  54  80  54 /  30  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  53  84  53 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  80  59  84  62 /  20  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  80  61  86  62 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  82  60  87  60 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  60  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  82  57  86  58 /  20  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  84  59  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  83  61  89  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  56  84  57 /  30  10  10  30
TIJERAS.........................  79  55  83  58 /  30  10  10  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  47  82  49 /  40  20  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  54  75  53 /  40  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  54  78  58 /  40  20  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  58  81  60 /  40  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  71  53  76  53 /  50  30  20  50
CAPULIN.........................  74  50  75  53 /  20  20  10  20
RATON...........................  79  49  82  51 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  77  51  83  53 /  20  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  49  79  51 /  40  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  76  59  79  57 /  20  20  20  10
ROY.............................  73  55  78  56 /  40  20  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  81  62 /  50  30  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  74  60  80  61 /  50  30  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  81  62 /  50  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  73  61  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
PORTALES........................  74  64  78  63 /  70  50  40  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  62  80  63 /  50  40  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  78  64  82  65 /  50  40  20  40
PICACHO.........................  73  58  78  61 /  50  40  20  50
ELK.............................  71  56  74  57 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 190543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 190543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190130 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190130 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 182339 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

33/52









000
FXUS65 KABQ 182339 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

33/52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 182114
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC/ROW HAVE THE
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VIS. LVS HAS SOME POTENTIAL WITH A LITTLE LESS POTENTIAL AT
SAF/ABQ AND GUP. FMN SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  84  55  87 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  45  79  46  85 /  20  20  10  20
CUBA............................  50  78  49  82 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  50  79  47  83 /  20  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  49  73  48  78 /  20  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  49  79  49  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  52  73  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  56  79  55  83 /  50  10  20  20
CHAMA...........................  42  76  40  79 /  20  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  75  55  80 /  20  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  52  70  51  76 /  60  60  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  74  46  76 /  20  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  44  68  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  69  39  72 /  30  40  20  20
TAOS............................  46  76  49  79 /  20  30  20  10
MORA............................  48  70  48  76 /  50  60  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  81  55  85 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  54  74  54  79 /  40  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  78  55  83 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  78  59  83 /  40  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  80  61  85 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  81  58  86 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  80  61  85 /  30  20  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  80  59  85 /  40  20  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  59  82  60  87 /  30  20  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  61  82  62  87 /  40  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  77  56  81 /  40  40  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  57  77  56  82 /  40  40  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  74  49  80 /  60  50  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  71  54  76 /  70  60  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  72  57  77 /  70  50  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  76  59  80 /  80  40  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  71  54  74 /  90  60  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  52  73  52  75 /  20  40  30  20
RATON...........................  50  77  51  80 /  20  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  76  54  81 /  30  50  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  70  50  78 /  60  60  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  79 /  20  60  40  20
ROY.............................  55  72  57  78 /  40  60  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  61  74  64  82 /  50  70  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  72  62  80 /  70  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  76  64  82 /  60  70  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
PORTALES........................  64  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  72  63  80 /  80  70  60  30
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  83 /  90  70  60  30
PICACHO.........................  61  74  61  77 /  90  60  50  30
ELK.............................  57  72  58  74 /  90  60  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 182114
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC/ROW HAVE THE
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VIS. LVS HAS SOME POTENTIAL WITH A LITTLE LESS POTENTIAL AT
SAF/ABQ AND GUP. FMN SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  84  55  87 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  45  79  46  85 /  20  20  10  20
CUBA............................  50  78  49  82 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  50  79  47  83 /  20  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  49  73  48  78 /  20  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  49  79  49  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  52  73  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  56  79  55  83 /  50  10  20  20
CHAMA...........................  42  76  40  79 /  20  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  75  55  80 /  20  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  52  70  51  76 /  60  60  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  74  46  76 /  20  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  44  68  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  69  39  72 /  30  40  20  20
TAOS............................  46  76  49  79 /  20  30  20  10
MORA............................  48  70  48  76 /  50  60  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  81  55  85 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  54  74  54  79 /  40  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  78  55  83 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  78  59  83 /  40  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  80  61  85 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  81  58  86 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  80  61  85 /  30  20  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  80  59  85 /  40  20  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  59  82  60  87 /  30  20  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  61  82  62  87 /  40  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  77  56  81 /  40  40  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  57  77  56  82 /  40  40  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  74  49  80 /  60  50  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  71  54  76 /  70  60  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  72  57  77 /  70  50  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  76  59  80 /  80  40  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  71  54  74 /  90  60  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  52  73  52  75 /  20  40  30  20
RATON...........................  50  77  51  80 /  20  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  76  54  81 /  30  50  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  70  50  78 /  60  60  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  79 /  20  60  40  20
ROY.............................  55  72  57  78 /  40  60  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  61  74  64  82 /  50  70  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  72  62  80 /  70  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  76  64  82 /  60  70  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
PORTALES........................  64  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  72  63  80 /  80  70  60  30
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  83 /  90  70  60  30
PICACHO.........................  61  74  61  77 /  90  60  50  30
ELK.............................  57  72  58  74 /  90  60  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

52









000
FXUS65 KABQ 181745 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC/ROW HAVE THE
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VIS. LVS HAS SOME POTENTIAL WITH A LITTLE LESS POTENTIAL AT
SAF/ABQ AND GUP. FMN SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1128 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REDUCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO RAISING TEMPERATURES. WILL
BE WATCHING SOUTHERN SOCORRO...SOUTHERN LINCOLN...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES TODAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. EAST CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO SEE
BLOSSOMING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT FORTUNATELY SOILS ARE NOT AS PRIMED IN
CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 181745 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC/ROW HAVE THE
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VIS. LVS HAS SOME POTENTIAL WITH A LITTLE LESS POTENTIAL AT
SAF/ABQ AND GUP. FMN SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1128 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REDUCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO RAISING TEMPERATURES. WILL
BE WATCHING SOUTHERN SOCORRO...SOUTHERN LINCOLN...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES TODAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. EAST CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO SEE
BLOSSOMING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT FORTUNATELY SOILS ARE NOT AS PRIMED IN
CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 181728
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REDUCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO RAISING TEMPERATURES. WILL
BE WATCHING SOUTHERN SOCORRO...SOUTHERN LINCOLN...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES TODAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. EAST CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO SEE
BLOSSOMING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT FORTUNATELY SOILS ARE NOT AS PRIMED IN
CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...526 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SHIFT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIMIT
SHRA ACTIVITY TO AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KABQ DURING THE DAY
TODAY. A FEW SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
KGUP...BUT UNLIKELY WITH BETTER LIFT TOO FAR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING AREAS
JUST NORTH OF KABQ AND MUCH OF EC NM DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONGEST DURATION IMPACT WILL BE AT KROW...WHERE MVFR CIGS AND RAIN
ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS SHRA COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VSBYS. SIMILAR REDUCTIONS IN CIGS POSSIBLE FOR RGV FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUSLY GETTING SHOWERS
INTO AREA.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 181728
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST SENT OUT AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REDUCE POPS IN
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHILE ALSO RAISING TEMPERATURES. WILL
BE WATCHING SOUTHERN SOCORRO...SOUTHERN LINCOLN...AND
WEST/SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTIES TODAY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. EAST CENTRAL AREAS COULD ALSO SEE
BLOSSOMING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT FORTUNATELY SOILS ARE NOT AS PRIMED IN
CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...526 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SHIFT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIMIT
SHRA ACTIVITY TO AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KABQ DURING THE DAY
TODAY. A FEW SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
KGUP...BUT UNLIKELY WITH BETTER LIFT TOO FAR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING AREAS
JUST NORTH OF KABQ AND MUCH OF EC NM DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONGEST DURATION IMPACT WILL BE AT KROW...WHERE MVFR CIGS AND RAIN
ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS SHRA COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VSBYS. SIMILAR REDUCTIONS IN CIGS POSSIBLE FOR RGV FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUSLY GETTING SHOWERS
INTO AREA.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 181126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SHIFT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIMIT
SHRA ACTIVITY TO AREAS PRIMARILY SOUTH OF KABQ DURING THE DAY
TODAY. A FEW SHRA/TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST HIGH TERRAIN NEAR
KGUP...BUT UNLIKELY WITH BETTER LIFT TOO FAR SOUTH. WIDESPREAD SHRA
AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE DAY...IMPACTING AREAS
JUST NORTH OF KABQ AND MUCH OF EC NM DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONGEST DURATION IMPACT WILL BE AT KROW...WHERE MVFR CIGS AND RAIN
ARE LIKELY WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS SHRA COVERAGE INCREASES...WITH PATCHY FOG POTENTIALLY REDUCING
VSBYS. SIMILAR REDUCTIONS IN CIGS POSSIBLE FOR RGV FRIDAY
MORNING...THOUGH LIKELY DEPENDENT ON PREVIOUSLY GETTING SHOWERS
INTO AREA.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 180934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO THE NM BOOT HEEL AND WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 06Z THU
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NM
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BY 00Z THU
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
06Z THU NIGHT. TAFS CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS AT TIME OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY ACTIVITY...WITH SCT CLOUD LAYERS AT LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. VCFG IN FOR 03Z OR LATER
THU NIGHT FOR ROW...TCC...AND LVS WITH MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPING.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  82  57  84  54 /  10  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  80  49  79  45 /  10  30  40  10
CUBA............................  75  53  79  51 /  20  40  50  20
GALLUP..........................  76  52  80  49 /  20  30  20  10
EL MORRO........................  69  51  74  48 /  30  40  40  20
GRANTS..........................  72  52  79  49 /  30  40  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  67  53  73  49 /  50  50  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  70  58  80  56 /  60  50  20  20
CHAMA...........................  74  44  75  41 /  10  30  50  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  54  76  52 /  10  50  50  20
PECOS...........................  70  53  72  52 /  20  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  47  75  43 /  10  30  50  20
RED RIVER.......................  65  44  69  45 /  10  30  60  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  46  69  42 /  10  40  70  30
TAOS............................  75  51  74  47 /  10  40  50  20
MORA............................  71  51  71  48 /  20  60  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  78  56  81  54 /  10  40  40  20
SANTA FE........................  72  54  75  53 /  20  50  50  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  75  56  79  55 /  20  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  58  79  55 /  30  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  61  80  60 /  30  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  62  81  61 /  30  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  61  83  61 /  30  50  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  62  81  61 /  40  60  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  77  60  84  60 /  30  50  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  72  61  83  60 /  60  60  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  73  56  79  56 /  30  60  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  74  57  78  55 /  30  60  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  56  76  54 /  30  70  60  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  54  73  54 /  30  60  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  57  73  54 /  70  70  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  60  76  57 /  90  80  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  63  56  71  55 / 100 100  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  75  53  70  52 /  10  20  50  40
RATON...........................  77  52  77  50 /  10  30  50  20
SPRINGER........................  76  54  75  51 /  10  30  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  53  73  52 /  20  60  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  71  58 /  10  20  50  50
ROY.............................  73  57  72  57 /  20  40  70  50
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  74  61 /  30  50  60  50
SANTA ROSA......................  72  61  72  60 /  40  70  70  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  73  62 /  40  50  60  50
CLOVIS..........................  72  63  72  61 /  70  60  60  60
PORTALES........................  73  64  74  61 /  70  70  60  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  73  63  71  61 /  70  80  70  50
ROSWELL.........................  75  66  77  64 /  80  80  50  40
PICACHO.........................  68  61  74  60 /  90  90  50  30
ELK.............................  65  58  72  57 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS65 KABQ 180934
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RECENT FORECAST MODEL RUNS NOW SHIFT FORMER HURRICANE ODILES
REMNANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS TODAY...THEN
FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER
SOUTHEAST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND REMAINS IN EFFECT FARTHER WEST
THROUGH TODAY. OTHERWISE...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AGAIN AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DRAWS
A MODERATE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVERHEAD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODILES TRACK CONTINUES TO BE TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WITH THE LATEST
MODELS GENERALLY INITIALIZING TOO FAR NORTH WITH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN MODEL SEEMED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN
THE GFS OR ECMWF. THE SPC SSEO FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY MORNING
SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...SO WE LEANED TOWARD THAT PROGNOSIS WITH THE POP
FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF ODILES
REMNANTS...WITH THE UPPER LOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CA
COAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL STILL DRAW A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH NM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH A MODESTLY GUSTY E CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY SHOULD FAVOR
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF ZONES...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS.
THEN THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD MOVE MORE SQUARELY OVER NM
ON MONDAY FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE E SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FOR THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
FAVORED TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHIFTS
THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME FARTHER EAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ODILE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 WILL SEE WETTING RAINS...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM.
AS ODILE BEGINS TO EXIT THE STATE FRIDAY...THE FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN
PLAINS...THOUGH AFTN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS
AND THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY....OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
CHANGE LITTLE FROM YESTERDAYS READINGS...REMAINING WELL BELOW
NORMAL SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. WEAK WARMING WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE WEST
FRIDAY...WHERE HIGHS WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL...WHILE BELOW NORMAL
VALUES PERSIST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER VENT
RATES TODAY WILL BECOME FAIR TO POOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY.

AS ODILE EXITS WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...MODELS POINT TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
STRONG WINDS AND A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS LESS BULLISH. THIS COULD IMPACT
OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT CURRENT
THOUGHT ALIGNS WITH BULLISH GFS/NAM. GAP WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL DROP
CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE EACH DAY...THOUGH POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR VALUES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A WEAK RIDGE BREAKDOWN AS A CLOSED
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROUNDS THE RIDGE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVE ACROSS
NORTHERN NM...BUT LITTLE ELSE IS EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND
INCREASES OR DRY SLOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THAT SAID...A
WEAK DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN MONDAY THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NM. MODELS HINT AT A SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH SYSTEM FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD...BUT THEY REMAIN
INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL TO PUT ANY STOCK IN IT.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO THE NM BOOT HEEL AND WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 06Z THU
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NM
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BY 00Z THU
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
06Z THU NIGHT. TAFS CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS AT TIME OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY ACTIVITY...WITH SCT CLOUD LAYERS AT LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. VCFG IN FOR 03Z OR LATER
THU NIGHT FOR ROW...TCC...AND LVS WITH MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPING.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  82  57  84  54 /  10  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  80  49  79  45 /  10  30  40  10
CUBA............................  75  53  79  51 /  20  40  50  20
GALLUP..........................  76  52  80  49 /  20  30  20  10
EL MORRO........................  69  51  74  48 /  30  40  40  20
GRANTS..........................  72  52  79  49 /  30  40  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  67  53  73  49 /  50  50  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  70  58  80  56 /  60  50  20  20
CHAMA...........................  74  44  75  41 /  10  30  50  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  54  76  52 /  10  50  50  20
PECOS...........................  70  53  72  52 /  20  60  60  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  47  75  43 /  10  30  50  20
RED RIVER.......................  65  44  69  45 /  10  30  60  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  46  69  42 /  10  40  70  30
TAOS............................  75  51  74  47 /  10  40  50  20
MORA............................  71  51  71  48 /  20  60  70  30
ESPANOLA........................  78  56  81  54 /  10  40  40  20
SANTA FE........................  72  54  75  53 /  20  50  50  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  75  56  79  55 /  20  50  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  58  79  55 /  30  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  61  80  60 /  30  50  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  62  81  61 /  30  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  61  83  61 /  30  50  40  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  62  81  61 /  40  60  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  77  60  84  60 /  30  50  40  20
SOCORRO.........................  72  61  83  60 /  60  60  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  73  56  79  56 /  30  60  50  20
TIJERAS.........................  74  57  78  55 /  30  60  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  56  76  54 /  30  70  60  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  54  73  54 /  30  60  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  57  73  54 /  70  70  60  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  60  76  57 /  90  80  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  63  56  71  55 / 100 100  50  40
CAPULIN.........................  75  53  70  52 /  10  20  50  40
RATON...........................  77  52  77  50 /  10  30  50  20
SPRINGER........................  76  54  75  51 /  10  30  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  53  73  52 /  20  60  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  71  58 /  10  20  50  50
ROY.............................  73  57  72  57 /  20  40  70  50
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  74  61 /  30  50  60  50
SANTA ROSA......................  72  61  72  60 /  40  70  70  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  73  62 /  40  50  60  50
CLOVIS..........................  72  63  72  61 /  70  60  60  60
PORTALES........................  73  64  74  61 /  70  70  60  60
FORT SUMNER.....................  73  63  71  61 /  70  80  70  50
ROSWELL.........................  75  66  77  64 /  80  80  50  40
PICACHO.........................  68  61  74  60 /  90  90  50  30
ELK.............................  65  58  72  57 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 180536 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO THE NM BOOT HEEL AND WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 06Z THU
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NM
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BY 00Z THU
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
06Z THU NIGHT. TAFS CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS AT TIME OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY ACTIVITY...WITH SCT CLOUD LAYERS AT LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. VCFG IN FOR 03Z OR LATER
THU NIGHT FOR ROW...TCC...AND LVS WITH MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...956 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.UPDATE...
RADAR...SATELLITE AND THE EARLIER ARRIVING FCST MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART STRONGLY INDICATING THAT AT LEAST THE N TWO THIRDS...IF
NOT ALL...OF CATRON AND SOCORRO COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SEEING SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST IN PART THERE IS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHEARING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE EAST AND SE
OF THE CENTER OF ODILE/S REMNANTS AND SOME INDICATION THAT THE
UPPER HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE REMNANTS IS EXERTING MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION ON THE HEAVIER RAIN. THIS MAY WELL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE THAT...AT LEAST IN OUR FCST AREA...EVEN THU WILL
SEE LESS RAINFALL...MAYBE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS...THAN EARLIER
INDICATED NEAR AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL NOT CHANGE THU
GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS NOT NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z FCST MODEL DATA IS
IN YET. BUT DID LOWER AMTS SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOST OF THIS AREA FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT. THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS PACKAGE...
BUT NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 180536 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO THE NM BOOT HEEL AND WILL
MOVE NORTH AND EAST TO THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 06Z THU
NIGHT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NM
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 BY 00Z THU
AFTERNOON...AND SHIFT COVERAGE TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE BY
06Z THU NIGHT. TAFS CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS AT TIME OF GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF NEARBY ACTIVITY...WITH SCT CLOUD LAYERS AT LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG AFTER SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. VCFG IN FOR 03Z OR LATER
THU NIGHT FOR ROW...TCC...AND LVS WITH MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...956 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.UPDATE...
RADAR...SATELLITE AND THE EARLIER ARRIVING FCST MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART STRONGLY INDICATING THAT AT LEAST THE N TWO THIRDS...IF
NOT ALL...OF CATRON AND SOCORRO COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SEEING SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAINFALL THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST IN PART THERE IS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHEARING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE EAST AND SE
OF THE CENTER OF ODILE/S REMNANTS AND SOME INDICATION THAT THE
UPPER HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE REMNANTS IS EXERTING MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION ON THE HEAVIER RAIN. THIS MAY WELL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE THAT...AT LEAST IN OUR FCST AREA...EVEN THU WILL
SEE LESS RAINFALL...MAYBE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS...THAN EARLIER
INDICATED NEAR AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL NOT CHANGE THU
GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS NOT NEARLY ALL OF THE 00Z FCST MODEL DATA IS
IN YET. BUT DID LOWER AMTS SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOST OF THIS AREA FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT. THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS PACKAGE...
BUT NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43









000
FXUS65 KABQ 180356 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
956 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR...SATELLITE AND THE EARLIER ARRIVING FCST MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART STRONGLY INDICATING THAT AT LEAST THE N TWO THIRDS...IF
NOT ALL...OF CATRON AND SOCORRO COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SEEING SIGNIFICNTLY LESS RAINFALL THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST IN PART THERE IS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHEARING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE EAST AND SE
OF THE CENTER OF ODILE/S REMNANTS AND SOME INDICATION THAT THE
UPPER HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE REMNANTS IS EXERTING MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION ON THE HEAVIER RAIN. THIS MAY WELL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE THAT...AT LEAST IN OUR FCST AREA...EVEN THU WILL
SEE LESS RAINFALL...MAYBE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS...THAN EARLIER
INDICATED NEAR AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL NOT CHANGE THU
GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS NOT NEARLY ALL OF THE OOZ FCST MODEL DATA IS
IN YET. BUT DID LOWER AMTS SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOST OF THIS AREA FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT. THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS PACKAGE...
BUT NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 180356 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
956 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR...SATELLITE AND THE EARLIER ARRIVING FCST MODELS ARE FOR THE
MOST PART STRONGLY INDICATING THAT AT LEAST THE N TWO THIRDS...IF
NOT ALL...OF CATRON AND SOCORRO COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE SEEING SIGNIFICNTLY LESS RAINFALL THAN
EARLIER INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST IN PART THERE IS
SOMEWHAT MORE SHEARING OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TO THE EAST AND SE
OF THE CENTER OF ODILE/S REMNANTS AND SOME INDICATION THAT THE
UPPER HIGH WELL NORTH OF THE REMNANTS IS EXERTING MORE OF A
SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSION ON THE HEAVIER RAIN. THIS MAY WELL CONTINUE
TO BE THE CASE THAT...AT LEAST IN OUR FCST AREA...EVEN THU WILL
SEE LESS RAINFALL...MAYBE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS...THAN EARLIER
INDICATED NEAR AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. WILL NOT CHANGE THU
GRIDS AT THIS TIME AS NOT NEARLY ALL OF THE OOZ FCST MODEL DATA IS
IN YET. BUT DID LOWER AMTS SIGNIFICANTLY IN MOST OF THIS AREA FOR
REST OF THE NIGHT. THOSE WERE THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS PACKAGE...
BUT NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 172342 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43/52










000
FXUS65 KABQ 172342 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43/52









000
FXUS65 KABQ 172338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43/52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 172338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MOVING INTO
WESTERN NM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAINTAINING BROAD RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 OVERNIGHT...WITH COVERAGE EXPANDING
NORTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS AND VIZ FALLING TO IFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WITH TAFS
CARRYING VCSH AND VCTS GROUPS AT GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVIEST
SHOWER PROXIMITY. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SHOW LOWEST
EXPECTED CIG EXCURSIONS THROUGH VALID PERIOD.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREA WIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNOUNCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETENTION OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

43/52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 172107
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNONCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETAINMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ODILE/S REMAINS TRACK INTO THE REGION.
BANDS OF -RA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH ISOLD TO SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY BREAK. MTS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 18/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  80  61  82 /  10  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  79  49  77 /  20  30  40  40
CUBA............................  51  74  54  76 /  20  40  60  50
GALLUP..........................  53  72  55  78 /  40  80  60  20
EL MORRO........................  51  63  53  73 /  50 100  70  30
GRANTS..........................  53  67  54  77 /  40  70  70  30
QUEMADO.........................  53  64  54  74 /  80 100  80  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  70  58  79 / 100 100  70  10
CHAMA...........................  43  73  46  74 /  20  30  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  71  55  74 /  20  40  70  50
PECOS...........................  51  68  56  71 /  20  50  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  74  51  75 /  10  20  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  64  47  66 /  10  20  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  41  69  50  70 /  10  30  60  70
TAOS............................  48  75  53  74 /  10  20  50  50
MORA............................  48  70  54  71 /  20  40  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  54  77  58  79 /  10  30  50  30
SANTA FE........................  52  70  56  74 /  20  50  70  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  72  58  77 /  20  50  70  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  70  60  78 /  40  80  80  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  70  62  79 /  40  60  80  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  71  62  81 /  40  60  80  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  73  61  82 /  30  50  80  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  70  63  80 /  50  60  80  20
RIO RANCHO......................  59  74  62  82 /  30  50  80  30
SOCORRO.........................  61  71  64  81 /  70  80  90  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  67  57  76 /  40  70  90  50
TIJERAS.........................  54  68  58  77 /  40  70  90  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  66  58  75 /  40  60  80  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  63  56  72 /  40  70  90  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  65  58  72 /  70  80 100  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  70  60  74 /  70  90  90  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  64  56  70 /  80 100  90  50
CAPULIN.........................  51  74  55  72 /   5  20  30  70
RATON...........................  49  77  56  76 /   5  20  30  60
SPRINGER........................  51  76  58  77 /   5  20  40  70
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  69  56  73 /  10  40  80  70
CLAYTON.........................  59  80  60  77 /   5  10  20  60
ROY.............................  56  72  59  75 /  10  30  50  70
CONCHAS.........................  61  76  64  79 /  20  40  60  70
SANTA ROSA......................  59  71  63  78 /  30  60  70  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  77  65  79 /  20  40  50  70
CLOVIS..........................  62  73  63  76 /  40  60  50  70
PORTALES........................  62  72  64  78 /  50  70  50  70
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  71  64  78 /  40  70  70  70
ROSWELL.........................  64  74  66  83 /  60  70  80  60
PICACHO.........................  59  68  61  77 /  70  90  90  50
ELK.............................  56  65  59  73 /  80 100  90  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 172107
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN INITIAL BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND IS
MOST PROMINENT IN EAST CENTRAL AREAS AS OF THIS WRITING. AS WHAT
WAS THE CENTER OF ODILE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ADDITIONAL
BANDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS NOT ONLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT AREAWIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. RAIN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN AREAS
BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH INTO CENTRAL LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY. PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. A BRIEF
BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY WHEN A GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND WILL OCCUR. INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TREND UP AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS MOST AREAS.

21

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF ODILE...NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...ARE CURRENTLY
ENCROACHING UPON SOUTHEASTERN AZ. A STEADY PLUME OF MOISTURE HAS
BEEN WORKING AHEAD OF ODILE WITH THE DEEPEST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO. THIS PLUME WILL INCH
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER UPTICK IN PWAT VALUES
OVER THE ABQ FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BANDS
OF STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES
IN THE PAST 24-48 HOURS. THIS HAS LEFT SOILS SATURATED WITHIN
CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND SOUTHWESTERN CHAVES COUNTIES.
THIS WILL HASTEN FLASH FLOODING ONCE ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOP. FORECAST MODELS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING A
SURGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REDEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
NM...WORKING INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HI-RES RAPID REFRESH AND THE ABQ LOCAL WRF
MODEL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN HOISTED FOR THIS SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE FORECAST AREA. CERTAINLY HAVE THE CONFIDENCE NOW
TO EXTEND/EXPAND THE WATCH FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME CENTRAL AREAS WILL NOT OBSERVE THE HEFTIER RAINS
UNTIL THE DAYTIME THURSDAY...SO TO AVOID A PREMATURE ANNONCEMENT
WILL KEEP THE WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ODILE IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST NM BY MID DAY
THURSDAY...DRAGGING A HEALTHY SWATH OF PRECIPITATION UP ALONG WITH
IT ON ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES INTO CENTRAL NM WITH A CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE AREA LIKELY
DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD THE HEART OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE THURSDAY DUE TO THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION.

AS ODILE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT...HEAVIER FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY...WORKING OVER AND JUST EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE ADJACENT EAST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THERE COULD BE A TENDENCY FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO BE SHEARED APART AND LOSE MORE ORGANIZATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A HEALTHY RETAINMENT OF
PRECIPITATION IN A TROPICAL CONVECTIVE MODE.

FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL NOT ALL EXACTLY ON THE SAME PAGE WITH
ODILE`S DEPARTURE FRIDAY...BUT THE END RESULT SEEMS TO BE ABOUT
THE SAME...LINGERING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER EASTERN NM. THUS...POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT MORE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE REDUCING POPS
SLIGHTLY IN THE WEST. SOME CLEARING SKIES IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AND INSOLATION COULD LEAD TO A DESTABILIZATION OF ATMOSPHERE...BUT
MOISTURE PROFILES WILL BE DECREASING IN THE WEST. SOME STORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD BE MUCH MORE
SPARSE. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE WEEKEND PERIOD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO GROW MUCH
DUE TO A LACK OF CONTINUITY FROM MODELS. IN RECENT MODEL
SOLUTIONS THE WEST COAST TROUGH HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF
TRANSFORMING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE PACIFIC. TODAY`S SOLUTIONS CLOSE THE TROUGH INTO A
LOW AND SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION SUBSTANTIALLY...BUT KEEP IT
COMING INTO CA/NV. THIS COULD IMPACT THE STEERING OF MORE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO NM. A COLD FRONT ALSO LOOKS TO
ENTER FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS BOUNDARY
COULD BE LARGELY DICTATED BY PROGRESSION OF THESE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE REMAINS OF ODILE OVER NEW
MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT THEN EXITING THE STATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. ECMWF MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH IT/S SLOWER MOVEMENT AS THE
WEAKENING CIRCULATION LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND POP/WX FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF
BLEND.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER RAIN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL/MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40/ BEFORE SHIFTING
NORTH AND EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE...WITH LOWS ABOVE AVERAGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 20S ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL BORDER
TO THE 50 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER DOWN CONSIDERABLY
SATURDAY...BUT START TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE STATE
WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH...WHILE AN UPPER LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SAG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. MODELS ALSO
CARRY POLO TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO WHILE THE PROGNOSIS
IS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS OVERALL DIMINISHED FROM WHAT IT PRESENTLY IS. HIGHS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE BY A FEW DEGREES AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL LOWER A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS BUT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO POOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40
THURSDAY...BUT MUCH IMPROVED FRIDAY AS FAIR TO POOR VENTILATION IS
HIGHLIGHTED OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.  THEREAFTER POCKETS OF
FAIR TO POOR RATES WILL PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ODILE/S REMAINS TRACK INTO THE REGION.
BANDS OF -RA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH ISOLD TO SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY BREAK. MTS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 18/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  80  61  82 /  10  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  47  79  49  77 /  20  30  40  40
CUBA............................  51  74  54  76 /  20  40  60  50
GALLUP..........................  53  72  55  78 /  40  80  60  20
EL MORRO........................  51  63  53  73 /  50 100  70  30
GRANTS..........................  53  67  54  77 /  40  70  70  30
QUEMADO.........................  53  64  54  74 /  80 100  80  20
GLENWOOD........................  59  70  58  79 / 100 100  70  10
CHAMA...........................  43  73  46  74 /  20  30  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  51  71  55  74 /  20  40  70  50
PECOS...........................  51  68  56  71 /  20  50  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  74  51  75 /  10  20  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  64  47  66 /  10  20  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  41  69  50  70 /  10  30  60  70
TAOS............................  48  75  53  74 /  10  20  50  50
MORA............................  48  70  54  71 /  20  40  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  54  77  58  79 /  10  30  50  30
SANTA FE........................  52  70  56  74 /  20  50  70  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  72  58  77 /  20  50  70  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  56  70  60  78 /  40  80  80  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  59  70  62  79 /  40  60  80  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  71  62  81 /  40  60  80  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  73  61  82 /  30  50  80  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  70  63  80 /  50  60  80  20
RIO RANCHO......................  59  74  62  82 /  30  50  80  30
SOCORRO.........................  61  71  64  81 /  70  80  90  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  54  67  57  76 /  40  70  90  50
TIJERAS.........................  54  68  58  77 /  40  70  90  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  53  66  58  75 /  40  60  80  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  63  56  72 /  40  70  90  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  65  58  72 /  70  80 100  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  59  70  60  74 /  70  90  90  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  64  56  70 /  80 100  90  50
CAPULIN.........................  51  74  55  72 /   5  20  30  70
RATON...........................  49  77  56  76 /   5  20  30  60
SPRINGER........................  51  76  58  77 /   5  20  40  70
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  69  56  73 /  10  40  80  70
CLAYTON.........................  59  80  60  77 /   5  10  20  60
ROY.............................  56  72  59  75 /  10  30  50  70
CONCHAS.........................  61  76  64  79 /  20  40  60  70
SANTA ROSA......................  59  71  63  78 /  30  60  70  70
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  77  65  79 /  20  40  50  70
CLOVIS..........................  62  73  63  76 /  40  60  50  70
PORTALES........................  62  72  64  78 /  50  70  50  70
FORT SUMNER.....................  61  71  64  78 /  40  70  70  70
ROSWELL.........................  64  74  66  83 /  60  70  80  60
PICACHO.........................  59  68  61  77 /  70  90  90  50
ELK.............................  56  65  59  73 /  80 100  90  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 171745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ODILE/S REMAINS TRACK INTO THE REGION.
BANDS OF -RA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH ISOLD TO SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY BREAK. MTS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 18/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 171745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ODILE/S REMAINS TRACK INTO THE REGION.
BANDS OF -RA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH ISOLD TO SCT
TSTMS DEVELOPING WHERE CLOUDS TEMPORARILY BREAK. MTS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH 18/12Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 171210 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY N AND NEWD
FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL AND E PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH MID DAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MDT RAIN WITH RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS TO AIRPORTS
LIKE KABQ...KSAF...KLVS...KSRR...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS
BAND...AND SUGGESTS SCT TO ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. KROW LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO SE OF THIS BAND FOR MUCH PRECIP...BUT RUNS THE RISK OF IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH KROW
TOO IN THE AFTN. OTHERWISE...WDSPR MT OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT AREAS S OF I-40
TONIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ538.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 171210 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
610 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN ORGANIZED BAND OF PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY N AND NEWD
FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL AND E PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THOUGH MID DAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT TO MDT RAIN WITH RISK OF MVFR CEILINGS TO AIRPORTS
LIKE KABQ...KSAF...KLVS...KSRR...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS
BAND...AND SUGGESTS SCT TO ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ITS
WAKE MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. KROW LOOKS TO BE A BIT
TOO SE OF THIS BAND FOR MUCH PRECIP...BUT RUNS THE RISK OF IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH KROW
TOO IN THE AFTN. OTHERWISE...WDSPR MT OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIPITATION WITH
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT AREAS S OF I-40
TONIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ538.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 171006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.


MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL STORM ODILE REMNANTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLAY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH. HAVE VCSH CARRIED IN TAFS TO
COVER EXPECTED PERIOD OF SHOWER COVERAGE...WITH SCT LAYERS
PLACE HOLDING FOR POSSIBLE EXCURSIONS INTO IFR/MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ROW CURRENTLY IN FOG WILL BATTLE LOW VIZ OVERNIGHT...WITH
VIZ IMPROVING FROM 17Z ONWARD WED MORNING.

SHY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  82  56  80  60 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  81  46  78  51 /  40  30  20  40
CUBA............................  74  50  75  53 /  60  20  40  50
GALLUP..........................  74  52  72  55 /  60  50  60  40
EL MORRO........................  67  49  66  52 /  60  70  80  60
GRANTS..........................  71  53  69  54 /  60  50  80  60
QUEMADO.........................  70  52  65  53 /  80  90  90  60
GLENWOOD........................  72  57  68  58 /  80 100 100  60
CHAMA...........................  75  43  73  47 /  40  20  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  52  72  54 /  40  20  40  60
PECOS...........................  73  52  68  54 /  40  30  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  45  73  49 /  30  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  67  43  65  45 /  30  10  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  73  41  69  47 /  30  20  30  50
TAOS............................  77  47  73  51 /  30  20  10  30
MORA............................  73  49  69  52 /  30  20  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  80  54  77  57 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE........................  74  53  71  55 /  40  30  40  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  77  54  73  56 /  40  30  50  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  57  72  59 /  60  30  70  70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  60  72  61 /  60  40  70  70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  58  74  60 /  60  40  70  70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  59  75  60 /  60  30  70  60
LOS LUNAS.......................  76  59  73  61 /  60  50  70  70
RIO RANCHO......................  75  60  76  60 /  50  30  60  60
SOCORRO.........................  71  60  73  61 /  80  80  80  70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  75  53  72  56 /  50  30  70  80
TIJERAS.........................  75  54  72  57 /  60  40  70  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  74  52  69  55 /  60  40  70  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  54  66  55 /  50  30  70  80
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  55  66  57 /  80  60  90  70
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  59  69  59 /  80  70  80  70
RUIDOSO.........................  64  53  64  55 /  80  80 100  80
CAPULIN.........................  82  49  77  53 /   5  10  10  30
RATON...........................  83  49  79  54 /   5  10  10  30
SPRINGER........................  84  50  78  55 /  10  10  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  50  70  54 /  30  20  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  58  82  59 /   5   5  10  20
ROY.............................  81  54  75  57 /  20  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  84  61  77  62 /  20  20  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  80  59  72  60 /  30  20  50  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  60  78  63 /  20  20  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  78  61  73  62 /  40  30  50  50
PORTALES........................  78  61  72  63 /  50  40  50  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  78  61  71  62 /  40  30  60  50
ROSWELL.........................  75  64  72  65 /  60  60  70  70
PICACHO.........................  70  60  68  60 /  70  60  80  80
ELK.............................  64  57  64  58 /  80  80 100  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

41






000
FXUS65 KABQ 171006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...EXPANDING NORTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE REMNANT LOW PASSES OVER THE
HEART OF THE STATE. THE THREAT OF AREAL FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS BUT LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT AREAWIDE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWER PATTERN SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS TO EXTEND IT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND TO ADD THE REMAINDER OF CHAVES COUNTY. FURTHER TIME
AND AREAL EXTENSIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATER SHIFTS TO COVER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD.

PER NHC 3AM MDT UPDATE...THE CENTER OF ODILE WAS ABOUT 85 MILES
SOUTH OF PUERTO PENASCO MX AND SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 6 MPH. A TURN
TOWARD THE NE IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RAPIDLY
WEAKENS OVER LAND. THAT PROCESS MAY BE UNDER WAY ALREADY THIS
MORNING WITH EVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
THAT THE MID/UPPER CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO GET INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NEWD.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION CLOSE TO TUCSON
LATE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO OUR SW ZONES SOMETIME THURSDAY
MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PRETTY CLOSE SHOWING THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OVER CATRON COUNTY NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...SIGNIFICANT TRENDING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH
THE ECMWF KEEPING A BROAD BUT WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER BETWEEN
FARMINGTON AND ALBUQUERQUE WHILE THE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO
SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES IN LATER PERIODS...GENERALLY
DRIVES THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MORE EASTERLY THAN NELY. TRACKING
THE CORE OF THIS REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE CRITICAL AS IT WILL
GENERATE TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES AS IT CONTRACTS AND INTERACTS
WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF WC/SW NEW MEXICO. POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST FOR THE GILA AS WELL
AS BURN SCARS ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH OUT THE CURRENT WATCH
AREA PARTICULARLY LOWLAND AREAS OF SOCORRO/CATRON COUNTIES THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.


MEANWHILE...POP PLACEMENT FOR WEST-CENTRAL...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NEIGHBORING CENTRAL HIGHLAND ZONES CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING AS
PRECIP BANDS MIGRATING NORTHWARD SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING BENEATH A
BROADLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THE LATEST HRRR IS QUITE BULLISH ON
PROSPECT FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD
GRANTS/GALLUP AND TRENDED POP UPWARD CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE...NOT CONVINCED WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SC/SW ZONES TODAY GIVEN THE LACK OF
STRONG SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY BUT THE WRF/HRRR DO SUGGEST A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE PRECIP FOR THE SE PLAINS LATER
TODAY/EVENING.

LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MORE SUNSHINE MAY SPELL A MORE
ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WEST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED BUT TRENDING LESS ACTIVE BY SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT UPTICK
IN SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY/MONDAY. SEE BELOW FOR A MORE DETAILED
EXTENDED ANALYSIS. KJ


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE REMNANTS OF NOW
TROPICAL STORM ODILE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THE CENTER OF UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER TUCSON
TONIGHT...GALLUP THURSDAY...THEN CHAMA/TAOS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL...THEN NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER ROBUST DYNAMICS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CALLS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM THE GALLINAS MOUNTAINS WESTWARD ACROSS SOCORRO COUNTY AND
THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SOUTHERN CHUSKAS...THE BRAZOS AND CLAYTON. EXCEPT FOR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION...THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. IT MAY TAKE TIL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO REACH THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS MODELS AGREE BETTER ON AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLING OFF THE CA COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THEY THEN DIVERGE IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THE STORM EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD EITHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO AZ SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG EAST CANYON WIND IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITIES SHOULD TREND DOWNWARD
BY 10 TO 20 PERCENT ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND A FEW TO 16
PERCENT ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  WITH THE DECREASE IN
MOISTURE THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THEN...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND
UPWARD AGAIN SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF NM DRAWS A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD
OVER THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS LOOK
FAVORED FOR WETTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
MOISTURE PLUME MAY THEN FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS FOR WETTING
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS.

WITH BANDS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO TRACK NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VARY A
FEW TO 11 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARD NORMAL ON FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE SOME
OF THE BETTER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LINGER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
THEN REACH NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY...ONLY TO DROP
AGAIN ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TODAY...FRIDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THURSDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MEAGER HAINES VALUES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL STORM ODILE REMNANTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLAY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH. HAVE VCSH CARRIED IN TAFS TO
COVER EXPECTED PERIOD OF SHOWER COVERAGE...WITH SCT LAYERS
PLACE HOLDING FOR POSSIBLE EXCURSIONS INTO IFR/MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ROW CURRENTLY IN FOG WILL BATTLE LOW VIZ OVERNIGHT...WITH
VIZ IMPROVING FROM 17Z ONWARD WED MORNING.

SHY


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  82  56  80  60 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  81  46  78  51 /  40  30  20  40
CUBA............................  74  50  75  53 /  60  20  40  50
GALLUP..........................  74  52  72  55 /  60  50  60  40
EL MORRO........................  67  49  66  52 /  60  70  80  60
GRANTS..........................  71  53  69  54 /  60  50  80  60
QUEMADO.........................  70  52  65  53 /  80  90  90  60
GLENWOOD........................  72  57  68  58 /  80 100 100  60
CHAMA...........................  75  43  73  47 /  40  20  30  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  52  72  54 /  40  20  40  60
PECOS...........................  73  52  68  54 /  40  30  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  76  45  73  49 /  30  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  67  43  65  45 /  30  10  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  73  41  69  47 /  30  20  30  50
TAOS............................  77  47  73  51 /  30  20  10  30
MORA............................  73  49  69  52 /  30  20  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  80  54  77  57 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE........................  74  53  71  55 /  40  30  40  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  77  54  73  56 /  40  30  50  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  57  72  59 /  60  30  70  70
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  60  72  61 /  60  40  70  70
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  58  74  60 /  60  40  70  70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  59  75  60 /  60  30  70  60
LOS LUNAS.......................  76  59  73  61 /  60  50  70  70
RIO RANCHO......................  75  60  76  60 /  50  30  60  60
SOCORRO.........................  71  60  73  61 /  80  80  80  70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  75  53  72  56 /  50  30  70  80
TIJERAS.........................  75  54  72  57 /  60  40  70  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  74  52  69  55 /  60  40  70  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  54  66  55 /  50  30  70  80
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  55  66  57 /  80  60  90  70
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  59  69  59 /  80  70  80  70
RUIDOSO.........................  64  53  64  55 /  80  80 100  80
CAPULIN.........................  82  49  77  53 /   5  10  10  30
RATON...........................  83  49  79  54 /   5  10  10  30
SPRINGER........................  84  50  78  55 /  10  10  20  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  75  50  70  54 /  30  20  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  86  58  82  59 /   5   5  10  20
ROY.............................  81  54  75  57 /  20  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  84  61  77  62 /  20  20  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  80  59  72  60 /  30  20  50  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  60  78  63 /  20  20  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  78  61  73  62 /  40  30  50  50
PORTALES........................  78  61  72  63 /  50  40  50  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  78  61  71  62 /  40  30  60  50
ROSWELL.........................  75  64  72  65 /  60  60  70  70
PICACHO.........................  70  60  68  60 /  70  60  80  80
ELK.............................  64  57  64  58 /  80  80 100  80

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-538>540.

&&

$$

41







000
FXUS65 KABQ 170534 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
TROPICAL STORM ODILE REMNANTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WILL DRIFT INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING
MOUNTAINS OBSCURED AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IN PLAY. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL SET UP OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...WITH ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH. HAVE VCSH CARRIED IN TAFS TO
COVER EXPECTED PERIOD OF SHOWER COVERAGE...WITH SCT LAYERS
PLACE HOLDING FOR POSSIBLE EXCURSIONS INTO IFR/MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. ROW CURRENTLY IN FOG WILL BATTLE LOW VIZ OVERNIGHT...WITH
VIZ IMPROVING FROM 17Z ONWARD WED MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1012 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWERS POPS SOME FOR REST OF PRE MIDNIGHT PERIOD
MAINLY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...NORTH AND EAST PER RADAR TRENDS.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP SLIGHTLY FOR ABQ METRO AREA. QPF
DECREASED SOMEWHAT FOR REST OF EVE AND ALSO OVERNIGHT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING SOME PCPN SURGE INTO SW MOST
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRACK AND IMPACTS OF ODILE
REMNANTS STILL LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR OVERALL VIA THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND HURRICANE CENTER TRACK. ZONES ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 170412 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1012 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWERS POPS SOME FOR REST OF PRE MIDNIGHT PERIOD
MAINLY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...NORTH AND EAST PER RADAR TRENDS.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP SLIGHTLY FOR ABQ METRO AREA. QPF
DECREASED SOMEWHAT FOR REST OF EVE AND ALSO OVERNIGHT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING SOME PCPN SURGE INTO SW MOST
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRACK AND IMPACTS OF ODILE
REMNANTS STILL LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR OVERALL VIA THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND HURRICANE CENTER TRACK. ZONES ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE STORM REMNANTS OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDE AREAS OF STEADY
RAINFALL...IFR CIGS AND VIZ...AND MT OBSCURATION WILL DOMINATE
SOUTHERN NM THROUGH 00Z WED AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCAL DRYING OUT POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 21Z WED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 170412 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1012 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWERS POPS SOME FOR REST OF PRE MIDNIGHT PERIOD
MAINLY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL...NORTH AND EAST PER RADAR TRENDS.
LOWERED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP SLIGHTLY FOR ABQ METRO AREA. QPF
DECREASED SOMEWHAT FOR REST OF EVE AND ALSO OVERNIGHT MORE AREAS
THAN NOT...THOUGH STILL EXPECTING SOME PCPN SURGE INTO SW MOST
ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRACK AND IMPACTS OF ODILE
REMNANTS STILL LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR OVERALL VIA THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS AND HURRICANE CENTER TRACK. ZONES ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE STORM REMNANTS OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDE AREAS OF STEADY
RAINFALL...IFR CIGS AND VIZ...AND MT OBSCURATION WILL DOMINATE
SOUTHERN NM THROUGH 00Z WED AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCAL DRYING OUT POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 21Z WED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 162351 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE STORM REMNANTS OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDE AREAS OF STEADY
RAINFALL...IFR CIGS AND VIZ...AND MT OBSCURATION WILL DOMINATE
SOUTHERN NM THROUGH 00Z WED AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCAL DRYING OUT POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 21Z WED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

&&

$$

43/52










000
FXUS65 KABQ 162351 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE STORM REMNANTS OVER NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO
SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIDE AREAS OF STEADY
RAINFALL...IFR CIGS AND VIZ...AND MT OBSCURATION WILL DOMINATE
SOUTHERN NM THROUGH 00Z WED AFTERNOON FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH SOME LOCAL DRYING OUT POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AFTER 21Z WED.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524>526-539-540.

&&

$$

43/52









000
FXUS65 KABQ 162127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH -RA...BR
AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BEFORE 17/00Z. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER NOT AS EXTENSIVE....MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEW MEXICO...DAYTIME HEATING ALREADY SPARKING SOME CU AND
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT WILL
DEVELOP AFT 19Z. THESE STORMS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
LITTLE OR DRIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 17/03Z WITH MTS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  82  55  80 /  20  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  48  81  46  76 /  30  30  30  20
CUBA............................  51  74  49  72 /  30  30  20  40
GALLUP..........................  55  74  51  71 /  30  40  50  60
EL MORRO........................  51  67  48  68 /  40  60  60  80
GRANTS..........................  55  72  52  70 /  30  40  50  70
QUEMADO.........................  53  70  52  66 /  70  70  80  80
GLENWOOD........................  56  74  56  67 /  90  70  90  90
CHAMA...........................  41  75  42  72 /  30  40  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  75  52  71 /  30  20  20  30
PECOS...........................  51  73  51  68 /  30  20  20  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  76  45  71 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  36  67  41  64 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  73  39  68 /  40  30  20  30
TAOS............................  48  77  46  72 /  30  20  20  10
MORA............................  49  73  48  67 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  54  80  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  54  74  54  71 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  77  53  72 /  30  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  73  58  73 /  30  30  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  75  60  72 /  30  30  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  77  56  73 /  20  30  40  70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  56  77  58  74 /  20  30  30  60
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  77  58  73 /  30  30  40  70
RIO RANCHO......................  60  76  59  75 /  20  30  30  60
SOCORRO.........................  60  72  59  71 /  60  60  60  70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  75  52  71 /  40  30  30  60
TIJERAS.........................  55  76  54  72 /  30  30  30  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  74  49  69 /  30  20  30  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  71  54  66 /  30  20  20  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  68  55  66 /  50  50  60  80
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  69  58  67 /  70  60  60  80
RUIDOSO.........................  50  62  50  62 /  80  80  70  90
CAPULIN.........................  48  82  47  78 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  49  83  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
SPRINGER........................  51  84  50  78 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  75  49  69 /  20  10  20  40
CLAYTON.........................  59  86  58  83 /  10   5   5  10
ROY.............................  54  81  53  75 /  10  10  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  61  84  61  78 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  59  80  58  74 /  20  20  20  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  84  60  78 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVIS..........................  60  78  61  73 /  30  20  20  50
PORTALES........................  61  78  61  72 /  30  30  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  78  60  74 /  30  20  20  60
ROSWELL.........................  64  75  64  70 /  60  60  60  70
PICACHO.........................  60  70  60  67 /  70  60  70  80
ELK.............................  57  63  56  63 /  90  70  70  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524>526-539-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 162127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
APPROACH THE STATE. DEEPER MOISTURE IS ALREADY STREAMING INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CROP
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
BY THURSDAY THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL PUSH INTO
THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO...DRAGGING MORE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING IN MANY CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. A SLOW AND GRADUAL
DRYING AND CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY...BUT EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY MORNING HAS
GROWN CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS GFS AND EUROPEAN
MODELS EXHIBIT DECENT CONTINUITY...AND NOW THE NAM HAS ALSO FALLEN
IN LINE. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS SPREAD COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL STORM ODILE INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. AFTER AN
ACTIVE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN SOUTHERN NM...THE RAIN HAS
TAKEN ON A LIGHT STRATIFORM VARIETY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND SURGE OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE AND
EVENTUALLY WORK INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE ABQ FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. AFTER SOME PLACES THERE HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 1 TO 3
INCHES...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE AND EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR FORECAST ZONES.

THE OVERNIGHT SURGE OF ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES COULD PUT A
DELAY ON THINGS FIRING ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY BE
THE ONLY ZONES THAT STAY CLOUD FREE LONG ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE AND
INITIATE STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE ODILE MOISTURE. OTHERWISE THE MID
TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND AGAIN LIKELY LEAVING MUCH OF THE RAIN IN A
STRATIFORM STATE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR LONGER
DURATION RAINS AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ZONES WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY MORNING MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION OF ODILE WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN AZ...GETTING READY TO
CROSS THE WESTERN BORDER OF NM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE WELL INTO WEST CENTRAL TO CENTRAL
NM...ALLOWING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERTAKE A LARGE MAJORITY OF
THE ABQ FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED AS CONFIDENCE IS
ALSO RISING. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES WERE RATCHETED DOWN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND ENSUING PRECIPITATION
THAT IS EXPECTED FROM ODILE. EXPANDED/EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED...BUT WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE CLOSER
TO THE EVENT TIME. CONFERENCE CALLS WITH COLORADO BASIN RIVER
FORECAST CENTER SUGGESTS THE GILA AND SAN FRANCISCO BASINS ARE AT
A FAIRLY HIGH POTENTIAL TO REACH BANK-FULL...BUT STRESSED THAT THE
EVENT SHOULD BE A SHORTER DURATION FLASH FLOODING EVENT THAN WHAT
WAS OBSERVED LAST SEPTEMBER.

MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE SOME BY FRIDAY ON HOW QUICKLY THE REMNANTS
OF ODILE EJECT EASTWARD. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON HOW
QUICKLY THE WEST CLEARS OUT AND HOW LONG THE EAST IS UNDER THE GUN
FOR PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD STILL BE HEAVY. POPS WERE
INCREASED SOME IN THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EXIT...BUT CONFIDENCE WILL LIKELY GROW SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS.

ANOTHER WEST COAST TROUGH WILL THEN BE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND
WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD SHAPE UP PRECIPITATION-WISE. TREND IS NOW FOR MODELS TO CUT
OFF THIS FEATURE...ESCALATING THE ALREADY HIGH VARIABILITY IN
TRACK AND SPEED. SOME POPS HAVE BEEN BUILT INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH JUST YET. SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WOULD HAVE AN OPEN DOORWAY TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT IF
THE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF NM FOR A LONG DURATION.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW NEW MEXICO AND THEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE GREATEST DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. OVERNIGHT
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE EXCELLENT...AS AFTERNOON MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
GENERALLY VARY FROM NEAR 25 PERCENT FAR NORTH INTO THE 50 TO 60
PERCENT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FAIR TO POOR
VENTILATION AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...OR LONGER DURATION AND STEADY BUT LIGHTER RAIN
RATES...MAY RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING OF
BURN SCARS AND IN TERRAIN FAVORED/LOW LYING AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT THE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING FROM WHAT/S
LEFT OF ODILE/S CIRCULATION WILL BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY...WITH IT EXITING FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
IT/S EASTWARD PROGRESSION MAY STALL OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE
ECMWF INDICATES IT BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN AN INCOMING UPPER TROUGH
AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS...MOST OF THE LINGERING
PRECIPITATION ORIGINATING FROM IT STAYS IN TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

THEREFORE EXPECT SOME DRYING OF THE LOW LEVELS WEST AND CENTRAL
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING TO AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TREND DOWNWARD AND FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT LATE SATURDAY/SUNDAY DOESN/T APPEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SWEEP OUT ALL THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE NEW MEXICO
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO TRACK UP
FROM THE SOUTH. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...POLO...IS ALREADY POISED
TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND BUT
FORECAST MODELS KEEP IT AWAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH -RA...BR
AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BEFORE 17/00Z. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER NOT AS EXTENSIVE....MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEW MEXICO...DAYTIME HEATING ALREADY SPARKING SOME CU AND
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT WILL
DEVELOP AFT 19Z. THESE STORMS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
LITTLE OR DRIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 17/03Z WITH MTS OBSCURED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  82  55  80 /  20  10  20  10
DULCE...........................  48  81  46  76 /  30  30  30  20
CUBA............................  51  74  49  72 /  30  30  20  40
GALLUP..........................  55  74  51  71 /  30  40  50  60
EL MORRO........................  51  67  48  68 /  40  60  60  80
GRANTS..........................  55  72  52  70 /  30  40  50  70
QUEMADO.........................  53  70  52  66 /  70  70  80  80
GLENWOOD........................  56  74  56  67 /  90  70  90  90
CHAMA...........................  41  75  42  72 /  30  40  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  54  75  52  71 /  30  20  20  30
PECOS...........................  51  73  51  68 /  30  20  20  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  76  45  71 /  30  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  36  67  41  64 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  35  73  39  68 /  40  30  20  30
TAOS............................  48  77  46  72 /  30  20  20  10
MORA............................  49  73  48  67 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  54  80  52  76 /  30  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  54  74  54  71 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  55  77  53  72 /  30  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  58  73  58  73 /  30  30  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  61  75  60  72 /  30  30  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  55  77  56  73 /  20  30  40  70
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  56  77  58  74 /  20  30  30  60
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  77  58  73 /  30  30  40  70
RIO RANCHO......................  60  76  59  75 /  20  30  30  60
SOCORRO.........................  60  72  59  71 /  60  60  60  70
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  53  75  52  71 /  40  30  30  60
TIJERAS.........................  55  76  54  72 /  30  30  30  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  74  49  69 /  30  20  30  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  71  54  66 /  30  20  20  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  68  55  66 /  50  50  60  80
CARRIZOZO.......................  58  69  58  67 /  70  60  60  80
RUIDOSO.........................  50  62  50  62 /  80  80  70  90
CAPULIN.........................  48  82  47  78 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  49  83  48  78 /  20  10  10  10
SPRINGER........................  51  84  50  78 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  75  49  69 /  20  10  20  40
CLAYTON.........................  59  86  58  83 /  10   5   5  10
ROY.............................  54  81  53  75 /  10  10  10  30
CONCHAS.........................  61  84  61  78 /  10  10  10  30
SANTA ROSA......................  59  80  58  74 /  20  20  20  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  61  84  60  78 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVIS..........................  60  78  61  73 /  30  20  20  50
PORTALES........................  61  78  61  72 /  30  30  20  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  60  78  60  74 /  30  20  20  60
ROSWELL.........................  64  75  64  70 /  60  60  60  70
PICACHO.........................  60  70  60  67 /  70  60  70  80
ELK.............................  57  63  56  63 /  90  70  70  90

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524>526-539-540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 161732
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH -RA...BR
AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BEFORE 17/00Z. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER NOT AS EXTENSIVE....MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEW MEXICO...DAYTIME HEATING ALREADY SPARKING SOME CU AND
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT WILL
DEVELOP AFT 19Z. THESE STORMS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
LITTLE OR DRIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 17/03Z WITH MTS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE IMPACT ON
THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR COMPLEX AND THE LITTLE BEAR BURN
SCAR. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THEN THE REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY WITH THE
LIKELY HOOD OF SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL AREAS EXPECT
PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AND APPROACHING STORM FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND RATHER
UNSETTLED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AROUND RUIDOSO TO
GALLUP. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SWIRLING
AWAY ON THE BAJA CA COAST AND GULF OF CA. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WILL ADD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS THEY HAVE HAD RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER SIZEABLE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING PERHAPS REACHING
INTERSTATE 40. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WEST.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...BUT THEY ALL MANAGE TO BRING DEEP...RICH MOISTURE TO
NM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS A TRACK JUST A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF THE
GFS AND SIX TO TWELVE HOURS SLOWER. THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH...ND WEAKER WITH A TROUGH CROSSING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE
GFS BEING CONSISTENT ON ITS PATH AND TIMING WILL LEAN TOWARD IT
WHICH IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY TIME PERIODS.

TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY THE WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS
WELL. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH MOISTURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY WHILE A STORM OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE PIPELINE
GOING FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WET WEATHER FORECAST IS TRENDING EVEN WETTER.  THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS...SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND BRINGING THE
FAVORED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION SQUARELY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE STORM...OUTER
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUOUSLY STEAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. THE
FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CALLS FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
GALLUP...LAS CONCHAS BURN SCAR AND PORTALES. THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA
HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY TAKE
TIL THE ACTUAL REMNANTS CROSS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO
REACH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SW US FROM THE PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY DO AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A
MOIST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHEN THIS PLUME WILL REACH NEW MEXICO. THAT SAID...THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD REMAIN
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW STEERING THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME OVER NM.

WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUOUSLY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE REMNANTS
READINGS MAY POP ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY ONLY TO FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A MIXED BAG OF VENT RATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 161732
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. AREAS MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG WITH -RA...BR
AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BEFORE 17/00Z. IN
AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER NOT AS EXTENSIVE....MAINLY NORTHERN THIRD
OF NEW MEXICO...DAYTIME HEATING ALREADY SPARKING SOME CU AND
EXPECT ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT WILL
DEVELOP AFT 19Z. THESE STORMS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE
LITTLE OR DRIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR
CIGS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 17/03Z WITH MTS OBSCURED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE IMPACT ON
THE WHITEWATER BALDY BURN SCAR COMPLEX AND THE LITTLE BEAR BURN
SCAR. A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THEN THE REMNANTS OF NOW TROPICAL STORM ODILE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY WITH THE
LIKELY HOOD OF SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL AREAS EXPECT
PERHAPS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
AND APPROACHING STORM FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND RATHER
UNSETTLED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS CONTINUING EARLY THIS MORNING FROM AROUND RUIDOSO TO
GALLUP. THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MEANWHILE TROPICAL STORM ODILE IS SWIRLING
AWAY ON THE BAJA CA COAST AND GULF OF CA. WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES...WITH A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WILL ADD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AS THEY HAVE HAD RAIN MOST OF THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER SIZEABLE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BRING RAIN TO THE
SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS BAND WILL MAKE AN
ATTEMPT TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING PERHAPS REACHING
INTERSTATE 40. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WEST.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ODILE...BUT THEY ALL MANAGE TO BRING DEEP...RICH MOISTURE TO
NM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTEST...BRINGING A CLOSED LOW
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE EUROPEAN HAS A TRACK JUST A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF THE
GFS AND SIX TO TWELVE HOURS SLOWER. THE CANADIAN IS EVEN SLOWER
AND FARTHER NORTH...ND WEAKER WITH A TROUGH CROSSING NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ANY EVENT THE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
TIME PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF
IT HEAVY...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. WITH THE
GFS BEING CONSISTENT ON ITS PATH AND TIMING WILL LEAN TOWARD IT
WHICH IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY TIME PERIODS.

TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY THE WEEKEND COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE AS
WELL. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING FRESH MOISTURE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY WHILE A STORM OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INLAND. SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE PIPELINE
GOING FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WET WEATHER FORECAST IS TRENDING EVEN WETTER.  THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
HURRICANE ODILE REMNANTS...SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN AND BRINGING THE
FAVORED DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION SQUARELY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE STORM...OUTER
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUOUSLY STEAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. THE
FOREBODING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CALLS FOR OVER 6 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AMOUNTS TREND GRADUALLY DOWNWARD NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD WITH 1 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS
GALLUP...LAS CONCHAS BURN SCAR AND PORTALES. THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA
HAS A GOOD SHOT OF WETTING PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK...BUT IT MAY TAKE
TIL THE ACTUAL REMNANTS CROSS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK TO
REACH MUCH OF THE NORTHERN BORDER.

IN THE WAKE OF ODILES REMNANTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY
TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE SW US FROM THE PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY DO AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DRAWING A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER A
MOIST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD OUT OF MEXICO...THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THE LOW MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO SAY
WHEN THIS PLUME WILL REACH NEW MEXICO. THAT SAID...THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION COULD REMAIN
ACTIVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE GFS IS CORRECT WITH A MORE
PROGRESSIVE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW STEERING THE MONSOON MOISTURE
PLUME OVER NM.

WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUOUSLY FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER. IN THE WAKE OF THE HURRICANE REMNANTS
READINGS MAY POP ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY ONLY TO FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A MIXED BAG OF VENT RATES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION SHOULD FAVOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520.

&&

$$








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