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000
FXUS63 KABR 300826
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

UPPER LOW IS MOVING INTO KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RAIN SHIELD
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND NOW CROSSING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. A FEW HI-RES SOLUTIONS WOULD
EVEN SUGGEST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN THIS. CONTINUED THE TREND OF
PUSHING POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND THEY STILL MAY BE A TAD TOO FAR
NORTH. 925/850MB TEMPS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND CLOUD
COVER TRENDS MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIKE YESTERDAY AS WELL...SO HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE BALLPARK OF FRIDAYS READINGS. THIS TRANSLATES TO 50S SOUTH
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE THINNER/LESS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED.

SFC HIGH THEN BUILDS IN ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE 00Z
EC BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS. THIS IS SOMETHING NEW THAT HAS POPPED UP
IN THE EC AND IT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODELS. HAVE LEFT THE
FORECAST DRY FOR THE TIME BEING...BUT IF OTHER MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW
THIS EC SOLUTION...POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH DROPS OVER THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE
COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA. ALSO...NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300531 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A CUT OFF
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR. COOL 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A GRADIENT RESULTING IN
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. OVER
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA. ALSO...NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300531 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1231 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A CUT OFF
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR. COOL 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A GRADIENT RESULTING IN
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. OVER
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA. ALSO...NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300239 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
939 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A CUT OFF
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR. COOL 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A GRADIENT RESULTING IN
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. OVER
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA. ALSO...NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 300003 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
703 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A CUT OFF
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR. COOL 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A GRADIENT RESULTING IN
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. OVER
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY AFFECT THE PIR AREA. ALSO...NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 292000
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT WITH POPS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH A CUT OFF
ALONG THE I90 CORRIDOR. COOL 1030MB HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD DOMINATE FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A GRADIENT RESULTING IN
BREEZY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT TEMPERATURES. OVER
THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MEAN WARM TEMPS
AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR STRATUS REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES IN THIS CWA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS DRIFTING NORTH
BRIEFLY INTO KPIR OR KATY. BY 12Z SATURDAY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND PUSH OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 291736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED AROUND THE
MOBRIDGE AREA. OTHERWISE ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR STRATUS REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES IN THIS CWA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS DRIFTING NORTH
BRIEFLY INTO KPIR OR KATY. BY 12Z SATURDAY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND PUSH OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 291736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED AROUND THE
MOBRIDGE AREA. OTHERWISE ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MVFR STRATUS REMAINS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES IN THIS CWA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BUT
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME OF THE MVFR CIGS DRIFTING NORTH
BRIEFLY INTO KPIR OR KATY. BY 12Z SATURDAY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS AND PUSH OUT ANY LINGERING STRATUS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 291415
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
915 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN NOTED AROUND THE
MOBRIDGE AREA. OTHERWISE ONLY OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF
MORNING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AFTER SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AT KABR AND KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THE KPIR AREA LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 291126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AFTER SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AT KABR AND KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THE KPIR AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 291126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AFTER SOME AREAS OF MORNING FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH
IFR/MVFR VSBYS AT KABR AND KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
THE KPIR AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 290819
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 290819
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

BROAD/WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD TODAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING AND DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. LESS CLOUDINESS MAY WORK INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS TODAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
THICKER CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPS AT 925/850MB WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LOWER THERE.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE 00Z EC ALSO JOINING
THE OTHER MODELS IN PUSHING THINGS FURTHER SOUTH. LOOKS LIKE A
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EVENT SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOW 60S
FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BEGINS. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH THEN DROPPING OVER THE AREA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS STATES MID WEEK TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 290530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND PCPN AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SREF INDICATES REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

CLOUDY SKIES MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 0Z.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN
BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE I90 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR RAIN AS THE MAJOR
PTYPE...THOUGH SOME MIXED IN/NON ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A WARM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WAVE FOR MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS IN WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE OVER HANDLING A COLD SURGE COMING OUT OF
CANADA...EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS IS DIRECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
CONUS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 290306
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1006 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND PCPN AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SREF INDICATES REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

CLOUDY SKIES MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 0Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN
BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE I90 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR RAIN AS THE MAJOR
PTYPE...THOUGH SOME MIXED IN/NON ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A WARM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WAVE FOR MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS IN WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE OVER HANDLING A COLD SURGE COMING OUT OF
CANADA...EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS IS DIRECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
CONUS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PIR HAVING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS.
ALSO...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT PIR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 282354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND PCPN AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SREF INDICATES REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

CLOUDY SKIES MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 0Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN
BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE I90 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR RAIN AS THE MAJOR
PTYPE...THOUGH SOME MIXED IN/NON ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A WARM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WAVE FOR MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS IN WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE OVER HANDLING A COLD SURGE COMING OUT OF
CANADA...EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS IS DIRECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
CONUS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PIR HAVING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS.
ALSO...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT PIR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 282354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND PCPN AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SREF INDICATES REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

CLOUDY SKIES MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 0Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN
BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE I90 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR RAIN AS THE MAJOR
PTYPE...THOUGH SOME MIXED IN/NON ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A WARM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WAVE FOR MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS IN WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE OVER HANDLING A COLD SURGE COMING OUT OF
CANADA...EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS IS DIRECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
CONUS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PIR HAVING MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS.
ALSO...SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT PIR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 282030
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
330 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE IA/MN
BORDER WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING. LIGHT
WRAP AROUND PCPN AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT...BELIEVE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. DID
INTRODUCE AREAS OF FOG IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SREF INDICATES REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

CLOUDY SKIES MAY CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT RAIN INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST PCPN WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL 0Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MID AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THAT EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE UP INTO OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY SOUTHERN NEBRASKA BEFORE WASHING OUT AS THE UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER CANADA WILL AID IN
BLOCKING MOISTURE FROM EXTENDING TO THE NORTH. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SUGGEST PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE I90 CORRIDOR WHILE THE ECMWF DOES BRING SOME QPF INTO CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...POPS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
SOUTH. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BE GOOD FOR RAIN AS THE MAJOR
PTYPE...THOUGH SOME MIXED IN/NON ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE NORTHERN FRINGE.

850MB TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND...WITH A BIT OF A WARM SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWEST
FLOW WAVE FOR MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS IN WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS DIVERGE OVER HANDLING A COLD SURGE COMING OUT OF
CANADA...EITHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE GFS...AND ALMOST NON EXISTENT
AS THE COOLER AIRMASS IS DIRECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
CONUS WEDNESDAY ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS IN KPIR AND KATY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THERE
IS A POTENTIALOF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
FOR THE TERMINALS OF KPIR AND KATY. THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND
KMBG SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 281733 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
IN NORTH CENTRAL SD HAS PUSHED WEST OF THE CWA WITH NO ADDITIONAL
PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS.
RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM
MILLER....REDFIELD...TO WATERTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN
BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. THE
EASTERN CWA IS MOSTLY DRY CURRENTLY...BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
AND HAVE SEEN SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TRENDS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN SD. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK...BUT IF
CLEARING SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST SOILS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PULLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY FAIR
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY ACTUALLY STAY DRY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO SUDDEN JUMPS NORTHWARD IN THE LOW
TRACK. HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONFINED THINGS TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY TAKE A BREAK...IF ONLY
FOR A FEW DAYS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHEARING ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A
MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS IN KPIR AND KATY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT. THAT SAID...THERE
IS A POTENTIALOF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS
FOR THE TERMINALS OF KPIR AND KATY. THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND
KMBG SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 281551 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
IN NORTH CENTRAL SD HAS PUSHED WEST OF THE CWA WITH NO ADDITIONAL
PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THUS HAVE LOWERED POPS.
RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW IS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS PCPN SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SW THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS FROM
MILLER....REDFIELD...TO WATERTOWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN
BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. THE
EASTERN CWA IS MOSTLY DRY CURRENTLY...BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
AND HAVE SEEN SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TRENDS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN SD. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK...BUT IF
CLEARING SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST SOILS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PULLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY FAIR
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY ACTUALLY STAY DRY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO SUDDEN JUMPS NORTHWARD IN THE LOW
TRACK. HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONFINED THINGS TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY TAKE A BREAK...IF ONLY
FOR A FEW DAYS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHEARING ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A
MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW THIS
MORNING WILL BE AROUND KATY/KMBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 281118 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
618 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN
BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. THE
EASTERN CWA IS MOSTLY DRY CURRENTLY...BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
AND HAVE SEEN SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TRENDS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN SD. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK...BUT IF
CLEARING SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST SOILS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PULLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY FAIR
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY ACTUALLY STAY DRY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO SUDDEN JUMPS NORTHWARD IN THE LOW
TRACK. HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONFINED THINGS TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY TAKE A BREAK...IF ONLY
FOR A FEW DAYS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHEARING ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A
MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR/MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY MVFR/VFR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW THIS
MORNING WILL BE AROUND KATY/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 280818
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER IA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN
BATCH OF RAIN AND SNOW HAVING MOVED WEST INTO CENTRAL SD. THE
EASTERN CWA IS MOSTLY DRY CURRENTLY...BUT WATCHING THE NEXT BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND MOVING WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MN. EXPECT THIS PRECIP TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL TODAY...STILL ANTICIPATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS BUT AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ALSO...TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S
AND HAVE SEEN SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH ACCUMS
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE OVER. MODELS SUGGEST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT COULD SEE SOME CLEARING TRENDS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHERN SD. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK...BUT IF
CLEARING SEEMS MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...COULD BE LOOKING AT A GOOD
SETUP FOR FOG GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY MOIST SOILS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PULLS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY FAIR
AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT. IT APPEARS NOW THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA MAY ACTUALLY STAY DRY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...ASSUMING THERE ARE NO SUDDEN JUMPS NORTHWARD IN THE LOW
TRACK. HAVE THEREFORE CUT BACK ON POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONFINED THINGS TO SOUTHERN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
LOOKING VERY GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FINALLY TAKE A BREAK...IF ONLY
FOR A FEW DAYS. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LOW WILL BE
SHEARING ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THAT SYSTEM MOVES EAST...A
MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM TO BE DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND...BUT THEN
TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND END INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH
REMAINS HIGH. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ABR AND MBG LATER IN THE
DAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 280532 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIGHT RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ADJUSTED GRIDS A LITTLE FOR THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND END INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH
REMAINS HIGH. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ABR AND MBG LATER IN THE
DAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 280133
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
833 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIGHT RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ADJUSTED GRIDS A LITTLE FOR THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH ALL LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS
HIGH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 272351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH ALL LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS
HIGH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 272351 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
651 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT
WITH ALL LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH REMAINS
HIGH.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 272005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR/LOW VFR
CIGS THAT WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW. VSBY WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 271742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY NEAR ATY AND
SE...AND INCLUDED MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FAR W THIS MORNING.
JUST GOT A REPORT OF LOWERING TEMPS AND SNOW MIXING IN OVER W
STANLEY CO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER KS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWEST OUT OF NE/IA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY ALL
NIGHT...WHICH IS A TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND BACK OFF ON QPF. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WERE THE FIRST ONES TO REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW THIS DRYING TREND
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE 00Z EC SHOWS THIS TO SOME EXTENT AS WELL. BUT WHAT HAS BEEN MORE
CONVINCING IS EVEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOW LATCHED
ON TO THIS TREND AS WELL. ASIDE FROM SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE SWATH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN SPOTS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BECOME
RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY IN THE COTEAU REGION DOWN THROUGH WATERTOWN.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY TODAY AND IN FACT...MODELS
SHOW 925/850MB TEMPS DROPPING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FALLING TEMPS FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL SD WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEST RIVER LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER IA...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SO LOOK FOR DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FRIDAY IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY AS WELL...AND WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH...WILL ALREADY BE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER TROF/LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE MAY SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACCORDING
TO MODEL DATA. THAT SYSTEM GETS SHOVED EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THAT TIME SCALE.  TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR/LOW VFR
CIGS THAT WILL FALL OVERNIGHT AS PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW. VSBY WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 271606
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1106 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY NEAR ATY AND
SE...AND INCLUDED MORE OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FAR W THIS MORNING.
JUST GOT A REPORT OF LOWERING TEMPS AND SNOW MIXING IN OVER W
STANLEY CO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER KS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWEST OUT OF NE/IA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY ALL
NIGHT...WHICH IS A TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND BACK OFF ON QPF. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WERE THE FIRST ONES TO REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW THIS DRYING TREND
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE 00Z EC SHOWS THIS TO SOME EXTENT AS WELL. BUT WHAT HAS BEEN MORE
CONVINCING IS EVEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOW LATCHED
ON TO THIS TREND AS WELL. ASIDE FROM SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE SWATH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN SPOTS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BECOME
RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY IN THE COTEAU REGION DOWN THROUGH WATERTOWN.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY TODAY AND IN FACT...MODELS
SHOW 925/850MB TEMPS DROPPING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FALLING TEMPS FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL SD WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEST RIVER LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER IA...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SO LOOK FOR DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FRIDAY IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY AS WELL...AND WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH...WILL ALREADY BE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER TROF/LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE MAY SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACCORDING
TO MODEL DATA. THAT SYSTEM GETS SHOVED EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THAT TIME SCALE.  TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT KPIR/KMBG WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS. KABR/KATY WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND A BIT MORE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT BOTH
KATY AND KABR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 271116 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER KS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWEST OUT OF NE/IA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY ALL
NIGHT...WHICH IS A TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND BACK OFF ON QPF. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WERE THE FIRST ONES TO REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW THIS DRYING TREND
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE 00Z EC SHOWS THIS TO SOME EXTENT AS WELL. BUT WHAT HAS BEEN MORE
CONVINCING IS EVEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOW LATCHED
ON TO THIS TREND AS WELL. ASIDE FROM SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE SWATH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN SPOTS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BECOME
RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY IN THE COTEAU REGION DOWN THROUGH WATERTOWN.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY TODAY AND IN FACT...MODELS
SHOW 925/850MB TEMPS DROPPING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FALLING TEMPS FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL SD WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEST RIVER LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER IA...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SO LOOK FOR DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FRIDAY IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY AS WELL...AND WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH...WILL ALREADY BE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER TROF/LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE MAY SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACCORDING
TO MODEL DATA. THAT SYSTEM GETS SHOVED EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THAT TIME SCALE.  TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT KPIR/KMBG WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS. KABR/KATY WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND A BIT MORE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT BOTH
KATY AND KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





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