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000
FXUS63 KABR 310226 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
926 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA NOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. STILL QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE WEST...BUT IT IS GETTING PUSHED SOUTH RAPIDLY...AND
EXPECT IT TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. NO CHANGES MADE
TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AND THIS STRATUS
COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS
ERODING NICELY ON THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD
PRETTY QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTH...MODEL 850 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40
TO 50 DEGREES...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES
CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY...A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARD
06Z...SKIES WILL CLEAR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 302326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER...AND THIS STRATUS
COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS
ERODING NICELY ON THE  FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD PRETTY QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING
SOUTH...MODEL 850 MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40
TO 50 DEGREES...IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES
CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY...A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE...SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH
AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA THIS
EVENING. AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARD
06Z...SKIES WILL CLEAR...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 302017
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION. THERE IS STILL A SWATH OF STRATUS WORKING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER. AND THIS STRATUS COULD
HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THE STRATUS IS ERODING
NICELY ON THE FRONT AND BACK EDGES AND IS MOVING SOUTHWARD PRETTY
QUICKLY. PLUS WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY AIR MOVING SOUTH /MODEL 850
MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE ON THE ORDER OR 40 TO 50
DEGREES/ IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA. THIS SHOULD BE AN OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET
UP...AND LOW TWENTIES AND TEENS ARE FORECAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS ALL FALLS UNDER THE DISCLAIMER THAT SKIES CLEAR HOWEVER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AS WELL.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WIND
SPEEDS ACROSS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COULD COME CLOSE.
ALTERNATIVELY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST AND TIGHTENS
FURTHER ON SATURDAY /A DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 20 MB ACROSS THE
STATE/. SO A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE CWA ON
SATURDAY. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND DEAD FUELS
ACROSS THE REGION...THIS MAY BE A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. INITIALLY...FLOW IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT...WITH AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THUS...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOMINATED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85 TEMPERATURES +1 TO +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
60S...WHILE THE REST OF THE CWA STRUGGLES WITH A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TILL THE NEXT WAVE DEVELOPS AROUND MID WEEK.

BEST FORCING WITH ANY OF THESE FEATURES ENDS UP NORTH AND SOUTH OF
THE CWA...SO FOR THE MOST PART THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE A DRY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 301733 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 301733 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A NOTED GAP MOVING OVER THE CWA NOW. THE BRIEF
REPRIEVE WILL BE MARKED BY A COMBINATION OF SCT/BKN MVFR
CLOUDS...BEFORE OVC CIGS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING IN VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 301549 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES
MADE WERE TO ADJUST SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR STRATUS SAGGING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS CLOUD COVER REMAINS THE MAJOR PLAYER IN
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS WELL. STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE
SOME CLEARING AS THE DRY AIR PUSHES IN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY
TO 15 TO 25 KTS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 301138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY
TO 15 TO 25 KTS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 300906
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON WILL INVADE THE REGION LATER
TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE SINKING
SOUTHWARD CAUSING A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DEVELOP. THIS
WILL CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AN
EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE GFS IS RATHER OPTIMISTIC WITH THIS
CLOUD DECK DISSIPATING IN TIME. WILL RUN WITH THE SREF/NAM WHICH
SHOWS THE CLOUDS HOLDING TOGETHER AND REACHING THE ND/SD BORDER
BETWEEN 14-16Z.

THE CLOUDS ARE PROJECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BY
12Z FRIDAY DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...LOW TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE
IN THE DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH 925 MB WINDS INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 12Z SATURDAY.
THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOME ON SATURDAY WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SUB ADVISORY WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A WEAK SFC LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE
STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MODELS HANDLE QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLEND FOR NOW WHICH BRINGS POPS
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTER MONDAY THE REGION WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO MODERATE TO AT
OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE START OF NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY EXITING THE CWA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS OF 06Z LOOKS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 300524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...LIKELY EXITING THE CWA
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z. CIGS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS OF 06Z LOOKS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA DURING THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 300224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
924 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. LOOKS AS
THOUGH THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO FIT THE CURRENT
SITUATION. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY EXITING
THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS
OF 00Z LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...LIKELY EXITING
THE CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AS
OF 00Z LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT...AND MAY AFFECT THE CWA
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. VSBYS
WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292019
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK MOVING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. SO FAR NO OBS IN THIS CWA /OR NEAR THIS CWA/ ARE
REPORTING ANY RAIN...BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES ARE OCCURRING.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO SKIRT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING DOES APPEAR TO BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER...AND USED THE
CONSMOS GUIDANCE IN FRIDAY MORNINGS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
LIKELY BE ON THE WARM SIDE STILL.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WINDS QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS
THE HIGH PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL STRUGGLE TO WARM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND HIGHS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE
UPPER 30S OR 40S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...BUT THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT BY LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALL START OFF WITH DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SOME ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS
MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW LOOK TO IT VS THE FASTER MORE CONSOLIDATED
GFS. THE MAIN AFFECT THIS HAS ON THE FORECAST IS TO SLOW UP THE
FROPA AND COLD AIR INTRUSION A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
IT NOW APPEARS THAT ANY LIGHT PCPN DURING THAT TIME PERIOD WILL BE
MOSTLY RAIN BASED OFF THICKNESS PROGS AND LL TEMPERATURES. THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM LOOKS DRY. TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD FAVOR
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED OFF LATEST LL TEMPERATURE
PROGS AND MOS DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARD MORNING AT KABR/KMBG WHERE LATEST
AVIATION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY COME IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION AT KABR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 291744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST CHANGES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING
EAST PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT HAD TO KEEP SKY COVER IN A LITTLE LONGER
THAN THE INHERITED FORECAST. ALSO...BASED OFF OF CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SEEN PRETTY DISTINCTLY ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS THIS EVENING TO
BETTER FIT WITH HI RES MODELS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL PERHAPS TOWARD MORNING AT KABR/KMBG WHERE LATEST
AVIATION MODEL DATA SUGGESTS SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY COME IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR NOW WILL ONLY MENTION AT KABR/KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 291558 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1058 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST CHANGES MAINLY REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. STILL HAVE AN AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA THIS MORNING. THE BACK EDGE OF STRATUS IS MOVING EAST
PRETTY QUICKLY...BUT HAD TO KEEP SKY COVER IN A LITTLE LONGER THAN
THE INHERITED FORECAST. ALSO...BASED OFF OF CURRENT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS...RAISED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS SEEN PRETTY DISTINCTLY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. ADJUSTED TIMING OF POPS THIS EVENING TO BETTER FIT WITH
HI RES MODELS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/VFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SD. THOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A FEW GAPS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW IT
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT KABR/KATY TO BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING ALL CLOUDS TO EXIT BY AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 291136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/VFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SD. THOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN QUITE A FEW GAPS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW IT
FILLING IN THIS MORNING. EXPECT KABR/KATY TO BE AFFECTED WITH MVFR
CIGS THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECTING ALL CLOUDS TO EXIT BY AFTERNOON
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CIGS
WILL FALL TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 290805
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND CLOUDS AND
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...PCPN CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING...AND TEMPS/WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRATUS DECK ON BACKSIDE OF EXITING CLOSED LOW STILL LINGERING
ACROSS NERN AND ERN SD...ALTHO FEW HOLES HAVE DEVELOPED ALLOWING
TEMPS AT KABR TO FALL RATHER QUICKLY. EXPECT THESE HOLES TO FILL IN
PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE MODELS INDICATE THAT WAA
RETURNING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WILL AID IN PUSHING/ERODING CLOUD
DECK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY 18Z FOR
ALL AREAS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD OPEN 500HPA/700HPA WAVES THAT MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTN/EVEN. IT APPEARS THAT
BEST AREA FOR PCPN STILL REMAINS NORTH OF THE CWA..AND THAT PCPN
DOESN`T MOVE INTO WRN PART OF CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 21Z...OR ABOUT 6
HOURS SLOWER THAN INHERITED WX/POP GRIDS. WITH DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING/COVERAGE FOR
PCPN UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z FOR THE ERN CWA...MORE IN LINE WITH BEST
FORCING SEEN ON THE 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E SURFACES. SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY...DRAGGING PERHAPS FIRST ARCTIC
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWA. VERY STRONG CAA PUSHES INTO CWA DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH LOWER LAYERS DRYING VERY RAPIDLY. HAVE
BOTTOMED OUT DWPTS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...AND WITH STRONG CAA
HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS INTO THE HIGH BREEZY/LOW END WINDY CATEGORY.
WITH THE COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION...HAVE DROPPED LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
AT LEAST A CATEGORY ALL PLACES...AND IF WINDS DROP OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT CUTTING OFF ANY MIXING POTENTIAL...LOWS COULD FALL EVEN
FURTHER.

FRIDAY SETTING UP TO BE A COOL AND QUIET WEATHER DAY AS 1036MB
HIGH DROPS INTO REGION...SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL MN BY 00Z
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT COUPLED WITH INCREASING WINDS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
TANKING FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SHARP WEST TO EAST TEMP
GRADIENT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY/SLOWLY THE SFC HIGH EXITS TO THE
EAST AND THE WINDS INCREASE. SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY BUT DRY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP SHOWERS
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS ALONG WITH A SFC LOW.
HOWEVER MODELS ARE STILL QUITE DIVERGENT WITH POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF THE SFC LOW SO FOR NOW JUST STUCK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
SUPERBLEND POPS. BASED ON THE ACTIVE PATTERN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY AFTER SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THEY MAY JUST HOVER AROUND AVERAGE.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET HAS EXITED THE
WESTERN CWA AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.







&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
INTO...IF NOT BELOW...THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
P-TYPE...ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 290228 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
928 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF MISSOURI RIVER HAVE CLEARED THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER A MID
LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS TO THE EAST. ALSO...DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THE CLOUD DECK IS MOVING SO SLOWLY...HAVE RAISED
OVERNIGHT LOWS ANYWHERE FROM TWO TO FIVE DEGREES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
INTO...IF NOT BELOW...THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
P-TYPE...ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR MIXED
IN...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAFS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 282325 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY...AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKY COVER
FORECAST GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING
INTO...IF NOT BELOW...THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SCOOTS THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN
P-TYPE...ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY VFR CIGS...WITH A FEW SPOTS OF MVFR MIXED
IN...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING MAY BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE TAFS...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. VSBYS WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281938
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
238 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES SURROUND PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE CLIPPER-TYPE WAVE
WORKING THROUGH...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE 30S AND 40S AMID A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS VERY
LARGE DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REGION BEING WORN AWAY
BY DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING. THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL CONTINUES TO
CARRY THIS DISSIPATION TREND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE FAR NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. AND THIS TREND FOR A SLOW PUSH FOR
CLEARING CONDITIONS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE SKYCOVER FORECAST
GRIDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.
SO...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO /IF NOT
BELOW/ THE 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

WEDNESDAY -> THURSDAY NIGHT...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SCOOTS
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT SWEEPS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES /FOR NOW IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN P-TYPE/
ACROSS THIS CWA...STARTING OUT ACROSS THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND ENDING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST
MODELS...SYNOPTIC AND CAM ALIKE...ARE GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ALBEIT JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. DRY CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT AN ARCTIC
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SUB-FREEZING 925HPA AIR ADVECTING DOWN INTO
THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH GLANCES
THE CWA BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE EXPECTED QUICKLY THEREAFTER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL.
OVERALL FRIDAY HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED IN THE 40S...BUT SOME
LOCATIONS MAY NOT EVEN RISE OUT OF THE 30S. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A 20 MB SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETS UP UP ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS OFF TO
THE NORTH...SO AT THIS TIME THE ONLY PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST ARE FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES. THERMAL PROFILES
SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN...BUT IF PRECIP MATERIALIZES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...THERE COULD BE A FEW FLAKES OF SNOW MIXED IN AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SPREADING MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THE CLOUD
COVER WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
SHOWING UP ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THEREFORE...THE KPIR AND KMBG
TAF FORECASTS TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA....AND HELD MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281732 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

GOING FORECAST IS WORKING OUT OKAY AT THE MOMENT. NO PLANS TO
CHANGE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STILL SUFFICE.
TRYING TO FORECAST/TIME THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CURRENTLY
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED FORM OF
PCPN...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR TROUGH PINWHEELING
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR OBS SHOW SHIELD OF PCPN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
CWA..WITH KABR NOW REPORTING R-. LAPS DATA INDICATES THAT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM. HAVE TRIED TO TIME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS WORKING ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH 18Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED. PCPN SHIELD
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E RIDGES
WRAPPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF CLOSED 500HPA LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF CWA. ALSO...WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO WND
ADVRY CRITERIA...BUT ARE SETTLING BACK DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO BE JUST BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

SYSTEM MOVES OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW AREAS THAT APPROACH UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED
AREAS...IE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TACKLE
THAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVE REMOVED MINOR POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER...AND ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER DOWNWARD BASED ON COND
PRESSURE DEFS ON THE NAM/GFS THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS ARE CLOSER ON TIMING WITH WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL
CONTENT PAINTING MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF CWA...BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO CONTINUE MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TEMPS. CURRENT FCST LOWS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE WITHIN THAT LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TEMP
RANGE...SO HAVE INSERTED MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR THE
06-12Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

AGAIN..SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN FRONT PUSHING EAST.
LATEST EC HAS A 1035MB HIGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRIDAY...SO EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES...NOT MUCH TEMP RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER
SEASON. WITH A STRONG 1030S HIGH SETTLING OVER THE EAST THU NIGHT
H85 TEMPS WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ON UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST
CENTRAL MN SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S.
HOWEVER THE LOW END OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER TEENS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS EXITING AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS SETTING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW. WINDS
COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL
RETREAT NORTH INTO ND AND CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. OVERALL THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW RW/SW ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL SD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF AN EXITING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...SPREADING MVFR CIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THE CLOUD
COVER WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS
SHOWING UP ON THE WESTERN FRINGE. THEREFORE...THE KPIR AND KMBG
TAF FORECASTS TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...TOOK A MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA....AND HELD MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. WINDS RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281453 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
953 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
GOING FORECAST IS WORKING OUT OKAY AT THE MOMENT. NO PLANS TO
CHANGE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW. HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND AND BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STILL SUFFICE.
TRYING TO FORECAST/TIME THE EROSION OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CURRENTLY
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED FORM OF
PCPN...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR TROUGH PINWHEELING
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR OBS SHOW SHIELD OF PCPN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
CWA..WITH KABR NOW REPORTING R-. LAPS DATA INDICATES THAT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM. HAVE TRIED TO TIME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS WORKING ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH 18Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED. PCPN SHIELD
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E RIDGES
WRAPPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF CLOSED 500HPA LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF CWA. ALSO...WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO WND
ADVRY CRITERIA...BUT ARE SETTLING BACK DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO BE JUST BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

SYSTEM MOVES OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW AREAS THAT APPROACH UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED
AREAS...IE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TACKLE
THAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVE REMOVED MINOR POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER...AND ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER DOWNWARD BASED ON COND
PRESSURE DEFS ON THE NAM/GFS THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS ARE CLOSER ON TIMING WITH WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL
CONTENT PAINTING MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF CWA...BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINITY TO CONTINUE MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TEMPS. CURRENT FCST LOWS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE WITHIN THAT LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TEMP
RANGE...SO HAVE INSERTED MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR THE
06-12Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

AGAIN..SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN FRONT PUSHING EAST.
LATEST EC HAS A 1035MB HIGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRIDAY...SO EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES...NOT MUCH TEMP RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER SEASON. WITH
A STRONG 1030S HIGH SETTLING OVER THE EAST THU NIGHT H85 TEMPS
WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ON UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER THE LOW
END OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS EXITING AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
SETTING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW. WINDS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL RETREAT
NORTH INTO ND AND CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW RW/SW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 18Z ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
15 TO 35 KT RANGE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281143 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CURRENTLY
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED FORM OF
PCPN...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR TROUGH PINWHEELING
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR OBS SHOW SHIELD OF PCPN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
CWA..WITH KABR NOW REPORTING R-. LAPS DATA INDICATES THAT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM. HAVE TRIED TO TIME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS WORKING ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH 18Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED. PCPN SHIELD
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E RIDGES
WRAPPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF CLOSED 500HPA LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF CWA. ALSO...WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO WND
ADVRY CRITERIA...BUT ARE SETTLING BACK DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO BE JUST BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

SYSTEM MOVES OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW AREAS THAT APPROACH UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED
AREAS...IE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TACKLE
THAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVE REMOVED MINOR POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER...AND ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER DOWNWARD BASED ON COND
PRESSURE DEFS ON THE NAM/GFS THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS ARE CLOSER ON TIMING WITH WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL
CONTENT PAINTING MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF CWA...BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINITY TO CONTINUE MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TEMPS. CURRENT FCST LOWS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE WITHIN THAT LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TEMP
RANGE...SO HAVE INSERTED MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR THE
06-12Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

AGAIN..SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN FRONT PUSHING EAST.
LATEST EC HAS A 1035MB HIGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRIDAY...SO EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES...NOT MUCH TEMP RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER SEASON. WITH
A STRONG 1030S HIGH SETTLING OVER THE EAST THU NIGHT H85 TEMPS
WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ON UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER THE LOW
END OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS EXITING AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
SETTING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW. WINDS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL RETREAT
NORTH INTO ND AND CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW RW/SW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. BY 18Z ALL SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
15 TO 35 KT RANGE TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 280751
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
251 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING DEALS WITH PCPN CURRENTLY
ADVECTING SOUTHEAST THROUGH CWA THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED FORM OF
PCPN...GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BACKDOOR TROUGH PINWHEELING
THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PCPN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADAR OBS SHOW SHIELD OF PCPN DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
CWA..WITH KABR NOW REPORTING R-. LAPS DATA INDICATES THAT CLOUDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ARE WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
REGION WHERE LIGHT RAIN TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW WOULD BECOME A
PROBLEM. HAVE TRIED TO TIME SLGT CHC/CHC POPS WORKING ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH 18Z...WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMS EXPECTED. PCPN SHIELD
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH 700HPA AND 850HPA THETA-E RIDGES
WRAPPING AROUND BACKSIDE OF CLOSED 500HPA LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF CWA. ALSO...WITH SFC TROF PASSAGE...WINDS ARE GUSTING INTO WND
ADVRY CRITERIA...BUT ARE SETTLING BACK DOWN WITHIN AN HOUR. EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EXPECT MOST
PLACES TO BE JUST BELOW ADVRY CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND
HEADLINES FOR NOW AND MONITOR.

SYSTEM MOVES OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE NRN PLAINS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS DIMINISH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM FALLING INTO THE MID 20S ACROSS
THE CWA. COULD BE A FEW AREAS THAT APPROACH UPPER TEENS IN FAVORED
AREAS...IE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TACKLE
THAT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION FOR THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVE REMOVED MINOR POPS THAT WERE IN PLACE ALONG THE
ND/SD BORDER...AND ALSO TWEAKED SKY COVER DOWNWARD BASED ON COND
PRESSURE DEFS ON THE NAM/GFS THROUGH THE DAY.

MODELS ARE CLOSER ON TIMING WITH WAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE STILL
CONTENT PAINTING MOST OF THE QPF NORTH OF CWA...BUT ENOUGH
UNCERTAINITY TO CONTINUE MENTION OF POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. QUESTION
THEN TURNS TOWARD TEMPS. CURRENT FCST LOWS ACROSS THE ERN PART OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE WITHIN THAT LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW TEMP
RANGE...SO HAVE INSERTED MIXED WORDING ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR THE
06-12Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME.

AGAIN..SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
EXIT THE CWA BY 12Z THURSDAY WITH CANADIAN FRONT PUSHING EAST.
LATEST EC HAS A 1035MB HIGH DROPPING INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY 00Z
FRIDAY...SO EVEN WITH CLEARING SKIES...NOT MUCH TEMP RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS FALL/WINTER SEASON. WITH
A STRONG 1030S HIGH SETTLING OVER THE EAST THU NIGHT H85 TEMPS
WILL FALL TO AROUND -6C. COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ON UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN
SFC TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER THE LOW
END OF FORECAST GUIDANCE WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE HIGH IS EXITING AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS
SETTING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW. WINDS COULD APPROACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING
INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE COLDEST AIR WILL RETREAT
NORTH INTO ND AND CANADA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED IS LOOKING DRY WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE MAY BE A FEW RW/SW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET ANY OBS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AT
THE GRAND RIVER RAWS SITE. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE THOUGH AS
SPEEDS ARE RATHER CLOSE AND AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS RIGHT ALONG CWA BORDER IN UNR AREA HAVE
SEEN ADVISORY SPEEDS SO THERE ARE LIKELY SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA SEEING IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT.
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY ND AND NORTHERN SD. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPS ARE MUCH COLDER UPSTREAM
WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S...AND EVEN SEEING A FEW OBS
REPORTING SNOW ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER. THIS COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS LOW 40S.

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STAY COOL WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES PUSHING EAST INTO MN. SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS LOOK
TO GET PRETTY COLD AND HAVE LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES. SHOULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 20S WITH THE JAMES VALLEY PERHAPS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY STEADY TEMPS OUT A BIT
TOWARDS MORNING.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING
SPEEDS NOTED IN MODELS. THEY ALL ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.




.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TWO THINGS REALLY STAND OUT IN THE OUT PERIODS THIS GO ROUND.
FIRST...IT IS GOING TO BE REALLY COLD ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA/WC MINNESOTA WAKING UP FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD
BLAST OF AIR WILL RATCHET LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
EASILY DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE 20S IF NOT COLDER FOR LOW TEMPS.
THEN...ON FRIDAY...DO NOT LOOK FOR MUCH TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE TO EAT
AWAY FIRST. MIXING WINDS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HELPFUL FRIDAY
EITHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. 925HPA THERMAL PROGS
TOP OUT AT PEAK HEATING/MIXING ON FRIDAY AROUND 0C TO -2C ACROSS
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WC MINNESOTA WHICH TRANSLATES TO
MID/UPPER 30S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SECOND...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A NEARLY 30HPA RETURN FLOW PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINED WITH 0.5KM WIND SPEEDS PROGGED BETWEEN 35 TO 45
KNOTS...AM THINKING IT WILL BE HEADLINE WINDY ON SATURDAY. WHAT
IMPACT THIS WIND FORECAST WILL HAVE ON FIRE WEATHER REMAINS TO BE
SEEN. BUT...IF MODELS END UP BEING A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO THIS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...IT SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONGER
RANGE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS IS FOR ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF TO
BEGIN MARCHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THAT POINT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS
THAN 10 MPH AROUND SUNSET TUESDAY EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









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