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000
FXUS63 KABR 230128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES THIS EVENING. NOTCHED UP LOWS A BIT GIVEN
CURRENT DEWPOINTS. ALSO BACKED OFF TIMING OFF PCPN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA WHERE IT MAY ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN PLANNED. WILL
ALSO PERUSE NEW 00Z MODELS WHEN THEY COME IN...PAYING ATTENTION TO
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AS IT STAND SNOW HI-RES AND LO-RES MODELS ARE
KINDA AT ODDS AS TO WHERE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...SO NO
HEADLINES CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KATY. HOWEVER MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT.
ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME LOWER CIGS/VSBY DUE TO
FOG. THE IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND THEN BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 230128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
828 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES THIS EVENING. NOTCHED UP LOWS A BIT GIVEN
CURRENT DEWPOINTS. ALSO BACKED OFF TIMING OFF PCPN OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA WHERE IT MAY ARRIVE A BIT LATER THAN PLANNED. WILL
ALSO PERUSE NEW 00Z MODELS WHEN THEY COME IN...PAYING ATTENTION TO
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. AS IT STAND SNOW HI-RES AND LO-RES MODELS ARE
KINDA AT ODDS AS TO WHERE THREAT FOR HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE...SO NO
HEADLINES CURRENTLY PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KATY. HOWEVER MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT.
ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME LOWER CIGS/VSBY DUE TO
FOG. THE IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND THEN BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KATY. HOWEVER MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT.
ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME LOWER CIGS/VSBY DUE TO
FOG. THE IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND THEN BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KATY. HOWEVER MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT.
ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL COME LOWER CIGS/VSBY DUE TO
FOG. THE IFR CIGS/VSBY MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
AND THEN BURN OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KABR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 222033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE KMBG VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER IN THE DAY.
STILL COME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY
WORK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AT THE KPIR AND KMBG TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVING ACROSS KABR AND KATY TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 222033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
333 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

CURRENTLY SEEING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. SPC PROFILES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF
ENHANCED SHEAR AND CAPE THAT IS HELPING TO GENERATE THE SHOWERS.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...TONIGHT

A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES
AFTER 6Z. COMBINED WITH A 30 KT LLJ THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR AND UP TOWARD
PIERRE BETWEEN 9Z AND 14Z. THIS WAVE WILL BE THE FIRST ASSOCIATED
WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE OVER SD AND INTO
CENTRAL ND ON SATURDAY.

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE...SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT

PWATS OF OVER 1.5 INCHES AND A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT BEHIND THE LOW..
WEST OF AN EDMUNDS TO HAND COUNTY LINE..WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE WARM FRONT IS
TRICKIER. MODELS ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING SO
THAT IS A CONCERN. CURRENTLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA ARE UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK. IF THE LOW MOVES ON THE FASTER TRACK LIKE THE NAM
HAS..THERE WILL BE CLEARING ACROSS THE EAST THAT WILL HELP TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SHEAR AROUND 45 KTS AND CAPE OF
2500 TO NEAR 4000 J/KG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS IS ALL DEPENDENT ON THAT CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING THOUGH
BECAUSE OTHERWISE THERE WILL JUST NOT BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A LATE EVENING ELEVATED STORM OR TWO.

HIGH CONFIDENCE...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT

THE LOW WILL EXIT THE REGION TAKING ALL PRECIP WITH IT. THERE ARE
STILL SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.



.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL
BE MOVING NORTH INTO CANADA WHILE A WEST COAST TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY PLACE THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE POPS PERSIST IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. A COOLING
TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MODEL 850 MB TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOW TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER WEDNESDAY IT APPEARS 500 MB HEIGHTS
WILL BE ON THE RISE...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME PRETTY LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE KMBG VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER IN THE DAY.
STILL COME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY
WORK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AT THE KPIR AND KMBG TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVING ACROSS KABR AND KATY TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221744 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREADING IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE MISSOURI THIS HOUR BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER...STRONGER ROUND MOVES IN TONIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAINS NEAR THE KMBG VICINITY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE.
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO LIFT LATER IN THE DAY.
STILL COME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH IT WILL SLOWLY
WORK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AT THE KPIR AND KMBG TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...THEN MOVING ACROSS KABR AND KATY TOWARD THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221604 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1104 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREADING IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE MISSOURI THIS HOUR BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER...STRONGER ROUND MOVES IN TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THIS MORNING...KATY IS DOWN TO THE DECK IN IFR FOG...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KMBG. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
LIFT UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO REACH KABR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221604 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1104 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING THOUGH
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SD
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SPREADING IN COVERAGE WEST OF THE MISSOURI THIS HOUR BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER...STRONGER ROUND MOVES IN TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THIS MORNING...KATY IS DOWN TO THE DECK IN IFR FOG...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KMBG. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
LIFT UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO REACH KABR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 221332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
832 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WEST MN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IS ADVECTING SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BELOW A QUARTER MILE IN THESE LOW CLOUDS.
AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE EAST LATE THIS MORNING THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...EVEN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THIS MORNING...KATY IS DOWN TO THE DECK IN IFR FOG...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KMBG. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
LIFT UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO REACH KABR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
832 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE WEST MN COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IS ADVECTING SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN BELOW A QUARTER MILE IN THESE LOW CLOUDS.
AS SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MOVE EAST LATE THIS MORNING THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE...EVEN AS THE LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THIS MORNING...KATY IS DOWN TO THE DECK IN IFR FOG...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KMBG. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
LIFT UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO REACH KABR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 221159 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
659 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THIS MORNING...KATY IS DOWN TO THE DECK IN IFR FOG...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KMBG. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
LIFT UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO REACH KABR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221159 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
659 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THIS MORNING...KATY IS DOWN TO THE DECK IN IFR FOG...AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
IMPROVE. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED...AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THERE CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING/MOVING THROUGH
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING KMBG. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
LIFT UP INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY MID MORNING. A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS
MAY MANAGE TO REACH KABR THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN THREAT BEGINS TO
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY AT THE
KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THEM IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
419 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD
EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET RESIDE. NOT MUCH TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA...BUT LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE
ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

ALSO WATCHING FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. EXTENSIVE AREA OF
DENSE FOG JUST TO OUR EAST OVER MN...BUT IS TRYING TO CREEP
TOWARDS THE SD/MN BORDER AND OVER BIG STONE/TRAVERSE COUNTIES.
WHEATON HAS BEEN DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE FOR SOME TIME BUT
ORTONVILLE STILL AT 5SM. ALSO SEEING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE COTEAU AND ON THE LEE SIDE...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
EXTEND MUCH FURTHER FROM THAT BASED ON FOG SATELLITE. DEBATED ON
DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT JUST DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH YET IN OUR CWA TO WARRANT ONE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND JUST INSERT DENSE FOG MENTION IN THE FORECAST/GRIDS.

MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. WHATS MORE UNCLEAR IS THE SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL. MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING ON A LOW PRESSURE
TRACK. 06Z NAM IS ACTUALLY A BIT FURTHER WEST AND PLACES THE QPF
BULLS EYE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD AND ACTUALLY DRY SLOTS THE
EAST A BIT. IN THIS CASE...MUCH MORE INSTABILITY SURGES NORTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH VERY IMPRESSIVE SHEAR VALUES. GFS AND EC
THOUGH ARE FURTHER EAST WITH ITS LOW AND QPF TRACKS...THUS KEEPING
MOST THE AREA IN CLOUD COVER AND MORE STRATIFORM MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. THIS WOULD LIMIT SEVERE CHANCES QUITE A BIT. LEFT HEAVY RAIN
MENTION IN THE GRIDS...BUT TRIMMED THE TIMING DOWN JUST A BIT TO
MATCH UP TO WHEN THE MODELS HAVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
MORE REFINEMENTS WILL HAVE TO BE MADE WHEN 12Z DATA STARTS ROLLING
IN LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AS THE PERIOD OPENS...THE CWA IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMICS AT AND BELOW 850HPA SHOW
DRYING/STABILIZING CONDITIONS. ARGUABLY...THERE COULD BE SOME
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING/LIFTING NEWD MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE PROGGED TO BE IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROF WORKS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY /500HPA COOL
AIR POCKET/...THERE COULD BE SOME HEAT OF THE DAY "INSTABILITY
SHOWERS" TO CONTEND WITH. OTHERWISE...IT`S LOOKING MORE LIKE MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED WILL PROBABLY BE DRY. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
TAKING OVER UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY THE END OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME WAA/ACCAS-TYPE CONVECTION COULD
BE GETTING GOING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.

ALSO WORTH NOTING...SOME OF THE LONG RANGE MOS GUIDANCE COMING IN
THIS MORNING /ECMWF/ SUGGESTS HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL ONLY ACHIEVE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THEM IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220515 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID ADD IN A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY
WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THEM IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220515 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID ADD IN A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY
WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF THE
WESTERN CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY JUST BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PART
OF THE CWA LATE FRIDAY EVENING. HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION THEM IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. DID ADD IN A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO MAINLY THE EASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY
WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A
SHORT TIME EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AFFECTING KABR AND KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 212333 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE IS NOT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON
SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE
WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE REGION. THIS MAY END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN
BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY
WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

FOR THE MOST PART...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A
SHORT TIME EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...AFFECTING KABR AND KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 212039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE ISNT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THIS MAY
END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE
TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXING LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY. THEY COULD BE MVFR FOR A TIME
EARLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATE AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 212039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING FORECAST COMING UP! FOR TNT A FEW EARLY
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MIGRATE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA WHERE
THERE IS STILL SOME DECENT INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THAT
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIE THIS EVENING. OUT WEST WEAK RETURN FLOW
AND DEVELOPING LLJ COULD FUEL SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT THAT GETS
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AND THEN CONTINUES EAST OF THE MO RIVER. NOT
SURE ABOUT THE EASTERN CWA AND WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY AT THIS POINT
SINCE MIXED LAYER CAPES LOOK PRETTY LOW AND THERE ISNT MUCH
FORCING. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHERE THINGS GET
INTERESTING. MAJOR WAVE LIFTS NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. WITH
PLENTY OF LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE PER PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THE WAA
PATTERN/PCPN WILL BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND THAT MAY LIMIT ANY
POSSIBILITY OF EXTREME AMOUNTS. FFG IS STILL APPROACHING 2 INCHES
FOR MOST AREAS SINCE HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PATCHY OVER THE
LAST WEEK OR SO. FOR NOW NO HEADLINES NEEDED BUT FUTURE SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED. TO GIVE A HEADS UP I HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY IN
ITSELF COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY. THE FAR EASTERN CWA MAY BE
UNDER THE GUN FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SVR WEATHER IF THE
MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OUT QUICK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AIRMASS
RECOVERY. THE SHEAR IS CERTAINLY THERE BUT FOR NOW AM NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT AND AGREE
WELL WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OUT WEST AFFECTING OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA/TROUGH
WILL BE OVER WYOMING/MONTANA ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA INTO MONDAY MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...DRYING OUT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF MONDAY. THEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING BACK CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. THIS MAY
END UP BEING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND MAY HAVE
TO ADJUST POPS IN LATER FORECASTS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH DRYING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.
THURSDAY MAY ALSO END UP BEING DRY WITH THIS UPPER FLOW PATTERN.
HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S. SOME 80S MAY OCCUR OUT WEST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXING LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY. THEY COULD BE MVFR FOR A TIME
EARLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATE AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 211759 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1259 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST OVERALL IS OKAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES REQUIRED THIS
MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXING LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY. THEY COULD BE MVFR FOR A TIME
EARLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATE AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 211759 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1259 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

FORECAST OVERALL IS OKAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES REQUIRED THIS
MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MIXING LAYER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY. THEY COULD BE MVFR FOR A TIME
EARLY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS WITH SOME FOG POSSIBLY FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATE AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 211644 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST OVERALL IS OKAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES REQUIRED THIS
MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE IN BETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 211644 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1144 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST OVERALL IS OKAY...ONLY MINOR UPDATES REQUIRED THIS
MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE IN BETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 211149 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 211149 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THE FORECAST
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210906
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG...KABR AND KATY. THE FOG
AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 210906
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
406 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MCS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE BORDER INTO MN WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. GENERALLY SEEING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS
WITH THE MCS AS IT ROLLS THROUGH...AND HAVE SEEN THIS FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AS FAR BACK WEST AS THE JAMES VALLEY. FAIRLY HEFTY
RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND ACTUALLY ADDING UP TO A
FEW INCHES IN SOME AREAS. WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON POTENTIAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE WITH THE VERY MOIST GROUND IN THE
WAKE OF THE MCS. ALSO SEEING CLEARING BEHIND THE PRECIP AND WITH
THE SFC TROUGH MOVING IN WITH LIGHT WINDS...COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR SOME FOG.

TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS PRECIP WILL DEPART THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WE AWAIT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY.
STILL RATHER WARM TEMPS AT 850 MB OVERHEAD TODAY SO AIR MASS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AS WELL...MORE SO FOR EASTERN AREAS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK ACTIVE AS MODELS BRING IN A COUPLE MORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. DIFFERENCES NOTED IN REGARDS TO OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOWS...AS WELL AS EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MODELS ARE PRETTY GENEROUS IN QPF
AMOUNTS AS WELL AS AREAL COVERAGE. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
UNCLEAR...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE BEST SETUP. SEVERE
PARAMETERS NOT ALL LINING UP AT THE RIGHT TIMES AND THERE WILL
LIKELY BE PERIODS OF PROLONGED CLOUD COVER TO SUPPRESS OVERALL
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SEVERAL SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH TWO DISTINCT
SHORTWAVES...AND A SUBTLER FEATURE INBETWEEN...EMBEDDED WITHIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. TIMING ON THE LAST WAVE IS A BIT TRICKIER AS
THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOOKS
LIKE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS FOR THE AREA. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE INITIAL WAVE...AND WHILE THE TREND IS
FOR LESS INTENSE COOLER AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG...KABR AND KATY. THE FOG
AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG...KABR AND KATY. THE FOG
AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG AND MVFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KMBG...KABR AND KATY. THE FOG
AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 210235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SO FAR TONIGHT...WITH THE AREA SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #469 EARLY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...LIKELY AFFECTING KMBG AND EVENTUALLY
KABR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 210235 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
STORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
SO FAR TONIGHT...WITH THE AREA SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AND HAVE CANCELLED THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #469 EARLY. NO
CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...LIKELY AFFECTING KMBG AND EVENTUALLY
KABR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 202329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...LIKELY AFFECTING KMBG AND EVENTUALLY
KABR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 202329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT
FIRST THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME
STORMS...AND PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER
EXACTLY WHERE ANY LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST
SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL
CLOUD DECK IS PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY
CONGEAL INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
THOSE STORMS FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE
MAIN THREAT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN
WIND WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...LIKELY AFFECTING KMBG AND EVENTUALLY
KABR. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 202044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT FIRST
THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME STORMS...AND
PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHERE ANY
LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY A SUBTLE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE CLOUDS ARE STARTING
TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER
OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL CLOUD DECK IS
PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY CONGEAL INTO
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THOSE STORMS
FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN WIND WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THE
STATIONS TO BE AFFECTED AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY FOR THUNDER WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE
HEAVY. OTHERWISE...THE RAINFALL WILL END THROUGH LATE EVENING
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXPECT SOME FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 202044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
344 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

PCPN CHANCES REMAIN THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. BUT FIRST
THINGS FIRST. FOR TONIGHT AM STILL ANTICIPATING SOME STORMS...AND
PROBABLY SOME SEVERE AS WELL. HARD TO DECIPHER EXACTLY WHERE ANY
LL WARM FRONT MIGHT EXIST...BUT THERE IS LIKELY A SUBTLE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MEANWHILE CLOUDS ARE STARTING
TO GET SOME HEIGHT TO THEM OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. A NUMBER
OF HI RES MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THIS WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT AS IS LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR. INSTABILITY IN INCREASING NOW THAT INITIAL CLOUD DECK IS
PUSHING EAST OF THAT AREA. THOSE STORMS OUT WEST MAY CONGEAL INTO
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THOSE STORMS
FEEDING OFF RICH MOISTURE/LLJ. INITIALLY HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT THREAT FOR A TORNADO...BUT THEN WIND WILL
LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY MCS THAT FORMS.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY OVER THE CWA BUT SHOULD
END BY NOON WITH THE REST OF THE DAY MAINLY DRY. THE REST OF THE
SHORT RANGE SHOULD FEATURE CHANCES FOR RAIN...BUT PROBABLY THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO DEEPEST MOISTURE/HIGHEST
INSTABILITY JUST TO THE NORTH OF NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
EAST TO WEST OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
MEANWHILE SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR OUR WEATHER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT WEST WILL KICK OUT ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING IN BEHIND.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE GOOD LIFT WITH IT BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HAVE IN GOOD
CHANCES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...KICKING EAST INTO OUR REGION FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK CHANCES OF RAINFALL
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO OUR CWA. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL AS CANADIAN AIR
DOMINATES THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
PERIOD OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THE
STATIONS TO BE AFFECTED AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY FOR THUNDER WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE
HEAVY. OTHERWISE...THE RAINFALL WILL END THROUGH LATE EVENING
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXPECT SOME FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 201816 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
116 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY PERIOD. BASICALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON POPS AS CANT SEE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS TOWARD AND IN THE EVENING. ALSO HAVE CONCERNS THAT SKY
COVER ADVECTING EAST AHEAD OF S/W MAY LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING AND
POTENTIALLY ALSO LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. UPDATES ALREADY
ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE SEVERITY OF THEM. SVR PARAMETERS
STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ACROSS FSD CWA. NONETHELESS THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL OVER 40 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EVEN LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AROUND 00Z. WILL BE WATCHING
CLOUD COVER TRENDS TODAY SINCE THIS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RAISED HAIL THREATS OVER THE CWA WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
TORNADOES OVER THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LOW LCLS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SEEMS INITIATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. INSERTED HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE
GRIDS AS WELL AS T+ FOR SEVERE THREAT. PASSED ON ANY TYPE OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THURSDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE A DRY DAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. STILL RATHER WARM
ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL FORECASTING RATHER WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE THIS FLOW IS INHERENTLY UNSTABLE...BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850HPA TOPS OUT AROUND 14G/KG
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW. THE RESULT IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER WAVE IN CLOSE TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT PARALLELS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OUT TO 180 HOURS.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. EXPECT ALL OF THE
STATIONS TO BE AFFECTED AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY FOR THUNDER WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD BE
HEAVY. OTHERWISE...THE RAINFALL WILL END THROUGH LATE EVENING
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. EXPECT SOME FOG
AND IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 201604 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1104 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY PERIOD. BASICALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON POPS AS CANT SEE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS TOWARD AND IN THE EVENING. ALSO HAVE CONCERNS THAT SKY
COVER ADVECTING EAST AHEAD OF S/W MAY LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING AND
POTENTIALLY ALSO LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. UPDATES ALREADY
ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE SEVERITY OF THEM. SVR PARAMETERS
STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ACROSS FSD CWA. NONETHELESS THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL OVER 40 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EVEN LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AROUND 00Z. WILL BE WATCHING
CLOUD COVER TRENDS TODAY SINCE THIS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RAISED HAIL THREATS OVER THE CWA WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
TORNADOES OVER THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LOW LCLS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SEEMS INITIATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. INSERTED HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE
GRIDS AS WELL AS T+ FOR SEVERE THREAT. PASSED ON ANY TYPE OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THURSDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE A DRY DAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. STILL RATHER WARM
ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL FORECASTING RATHER WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE THIS FLOW IS INHERENTLY UNSTABLE...BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850HPA TOPS OUT AROUND 14G/KG
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW. THE RESULT IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER WAVE IN CLOSE TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT PARALLELS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OUT TO 180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...SO
MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 201604 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1104 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAY PERIOD. BASICALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON POPS AS CANT SEE THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS BEING HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT LIKELY POPS...EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS TOWARD AND IN THE EVENING. ALSO HAVE CONCERNS THAT SKY
COVER ADVECTING EAST AHEAD OF S/W MAY LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING AND
POTENTIALLY ALSO LIMIT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. UPDATES ALREADY
ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE SEVERITY OF THEM. SVR PARAMETERS
STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ACROSS FSD CWA. NONETHELESS THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL OVER 40 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EVEN LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AROUND 00Z. WILL BE WATCHING
CLOUD COVER TRENDS TODAY SINCE THIS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RAISED HAIL THREATS OVER THE CWA WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
TORNADOES OVER THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LOW LCLS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SEEMS INITIATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. INSERTED HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE
GRIDS AS WELL AS T+ FOR SEVERE THREAT. PASSED ON ANY TYPE OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THURSDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE A DRY DAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. STILL RATHER WARM
ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL FORECASTING RATHER WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE THIS FLOW IS INHERENTLY UNSTABLE...BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850HPA TOPS OUT AROUND 14G/KG
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW. THE RESULT IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER WAVE IN CLOSE TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT PARALLELS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OUT TO 180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...SO
MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 201124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE SEVERITY OF THEM. SVR PARAMETERS
STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ACROSS FSD CWA. NONETHELESS THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL OVER 40 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EVEN LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AROUND 00Z. WILL BE WATCHING
CLOUD COVER TRENDS TODAY SINCE THIS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RAISED HAIL THREATS OVER THE CWA WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
TORNADOES OVER THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LOW LCLS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SEEMS INITIATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. INSERTED HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE
GRIDS AS WELL AS T+ FOR SEVERE THREAT. PASSED ON ANY TYPE OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THURSDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE A DRY DAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. STILL RATHER WARM
ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL FORECASTING RATHER WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE THIS FLOW IS INHERENTLY UNSTABLE...BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850HPA TOPS OUT AROUND 14G/KG
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW. THE RESULT IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER WAVE IN CLOSE TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT PARALLELS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OUT TO 180 HOURS.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...SO
MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 201124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE SEVERITY OF THEM. SVR PARAMETERS
STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ACROSS FSD CWA. NONETHELESS THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL OVER 40 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EVEN LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AROUND 00Z. WILL BE WATCHING
CLOUD COVER TRENDS TODAY SINCE THIS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RAISED HAIL THREATS OVER THE CWA WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
TORNADOES OVER THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LOW LCLS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SEEMS INITIATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. INSERTED HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE
GRIDS AS WELL AS T+ FOR SEVERE THREAT. PASSED ON ANY TYPE OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THURSDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE A DRY DAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. STILL RATHER WARM
ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL FORECASTING RATHER WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE THIS FLOW IS INHERENTLY UNSTABLE...BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850HPA TOPS OUT AROUND 14G/KG
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW. THE RESULT IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER WAVE IN CLOSE TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT PARALLELS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OUT TO 180 HOURS.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD TODAY...WITH SOME
STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TAF
SITES. THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND EVENING...SO
MOST OF THE TIME WE WILL SEE SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY CENTERS AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE SEVERITY OF THEM. SVR PARAMETERS
STILL LOOKING GOOD...WITH AMPLE AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ACROSS FSD CWA. NONETHELESS THOUGH...MODERATE INSTABILITY LIES
OVER OUR AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES STILL OVER 40 KNOTS WITH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR EVEN LOOKING IMPRESSIVE AROUND 00Z. WILL BE WATCHING
CLOUD COVER TRENDS TODAY SINCE THIS WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH
SUNSHINE WILL BE ABLE TO HEAT THE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY. SPC HAS RAISED HAIL THREATS OVER THE CWA WHICH LOOKS
VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
TORNADOES OVER THE AREA AS WELL GIVEN LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LOW LCLS. CAM SOLUTIONS SHOWING CLUSTERS OF STORMS OR EVEN A
FEW SUPERCELLS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SEEMS INITIATION WILL BE OVER CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EAST INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME UPSCALE GROWTH
QUITE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN A THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STORMS AS
WELL GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. INSERTED HEAVY RAIN MENTION INTO THE
GRIDS AS WELL AS T+ FOR SEVERE THREAT. PASSED ON ANY TYPE OF FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THURSDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE A DRY DAY WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZE. STILL RATHER WARM
ALOFT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO STILL FORECASTING RATHER WARM HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
WHILE THIS FLOW IS INHERENTLY UNSTABLE...BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.
WHILE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA...SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES AT 850HPA TOPS OUT AROUND 14G/KG
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO...SO WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
FOLLOW. THE RESULT IS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
MODELS DO BRING ANOTHER WAVE IN CLOSE TO THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH SURPRISINGLY DECENT PARALLELS BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS OUT TO 180 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THEN LOOK FOR
THEM TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200535 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1235 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF AT ALL. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS
TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
LATE.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AMID A SUNNY SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

TONIGHT -> WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT WILL BE GIVING WAY
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. TRACKING A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SWRN UNITED STATES...WHICH ARE
SUPPOSED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA...SEEMS SOME PRELIMINARY ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
GET GOING OUT WEST BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CAM
SOLUTIONS STILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS CRANK BACK UP TO 1.50 INCHES OR
MORE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT -> THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CHASING IT OUT OF THE CWA RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. THE
CWA SITS BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY...BUT BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.




.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER
TROF ROTATES OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...A S/W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING IN THE FCST. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE COOLING TO A BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE ON CHANCES OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN TIMING OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BE MOVING THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL TAKE HOLD THAT WILL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THEN LOOK FOR
THEM TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200535 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1235 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE AND
DO NOT LOOK TO MAKE IT TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IF AT ALL. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
ACCORDINGLY. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS
TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE CONVECTION...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE...WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
LATE.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION AMID A SUNNY SKY AND
LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

TONIGHT -> WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MODERATE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT WILL BE GIVING WAY
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND APPROACHING AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. TRACKING A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SWRN UNITED STATES...WHICH ARE
SUPPOSED TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH DECENT MID-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA...SEEMS SOME PRELIMINARY ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
GET GOING OUT WEST BY LATE TONIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS AND CAM
SOLUTIONS STILL HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME POINT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS CRANK BACK UP TO 1.50 INCHES OR
MORE...SO HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT -> THURSDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING DURING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CHASING IT OUT OF THE CWA RIGHT ON INTO THURSDAY. THE
CWA SITS BETWEEN WX SYSTEMS ON THURSDAY...BUT BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE REGION BRINGS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.




.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE DOMINATED MOSTLY BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER
TROF ROTATES OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA. AS THE PERIOD BEGINS...A S/W
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
WITH CHC POPS CONTINUING IN THE FCST. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD BEFORE COOLING TO A BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE ON CHANCES OF PCPN DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN TIMING OF EMBEDDED WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO BE MOVING THRU THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. AFTER THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...A COOLER AIRMASS
WILL TAKE HOLD THAT WILL PERSIST THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD.





&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA...THEN LOOK FOR
THEM TO SLOWLY SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...VIPOND
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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