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000
FXUS63 KABR 060854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAINFALL ALONG THE KPIR/KABR/KFAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS. A FEW HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES EAST...BUT WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE 700MB NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SHALLOW CU AND SPRINKLES. SMOKE OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO CONTINUE
UNABATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH. STABLE CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
WORST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...RETURN FLOW
SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY WEST RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER
MIXING CONDITIONS SETTING UP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LLJ THU NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A BROAD SFC TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE DAKOTAS AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THERE COULD BE SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE SPOTTY
WITH LIMITED FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 060854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAINFALL ALONG THE KPIR/KABR/KFAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS. A FEW HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES EAST...BUT WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE 700MB NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SHALLOW CU AND SPRINKLES. SMOKE OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO CONTINUE
UNABATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH. STABLE CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
WORST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...RETURN FLOW
SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY WEST RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER
MIXING CONDITIONS SETTING UP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LLJ THU NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A BROAD SFC TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE DAKOTAS AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THERE COULD BE SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE SPOTTY
WITH LIMITED FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 060530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHT LINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY
SORT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SPIN UP ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ019>023.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 060530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHT LINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY
SORT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SPIN UP ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ019>023.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 060530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHT LINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY
SORT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SPIN UP ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ019>023.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 060530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHT LINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY
SORT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SPIN UP ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT
DURING MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WHERE THE VSBY MAY DROP TO MVFR
LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ019>023.

MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 052322 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHT LINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY
SORT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SPIN UP ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ITS VICINITY. SOME POSSIBLY
SVR AT KPIR/KATY. OVERALL THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 052322 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHT LINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO
DAMAGING WINDS ARE CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL.
HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL BE GREATER THAN 2 INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY
SORT OF TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SPIN UP ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS IN ITS VICINITY. SOME POSSIBLY
SVR AT KPIR/KATY. OVERALL THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
EXCEPT DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 052012
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHTLINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO DAMAGING WINDS ARE
CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS
A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY SORT OF TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPIN UP ALONG THE
LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 052012
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO/SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM ABOUT
PIERRE TO ABERDEEN TO GRAND FORKS. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND CURRENT ML CAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO OVER 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT...A 100+ KT JET STREAK
IS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MODERATE TO STRONG
VORTICITY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB
TROUGH...WITH THE BEST FORCING BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. STORM MODE STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HODOGRAPHS SHOW NICE CURVATURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHERE HODOGRAPHS BECOME MORE
STRAIGHTLINE. HI RES MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
FORM A MULTICELL LINE AND TRACK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA. MODEL DCAPE REMAINS QUITE HIGH...SO DAMAGING WINDS ARE
CERTAINLY A THREAT...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. HEAVY RAIN ALSO REMAINS
A CONCERN GIVEN PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE GREATER THAN 2
INCHES. THE LESSER THREAT LOOKS TO BE ANY SORT OF TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SPIN UP ALONG THE
LINE OF STORMS TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...BUT A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT...BL DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 40S
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS SLOWLY MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY...MARKING
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. EC IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH QPF AND SUGGESTING
A MORE ACTIVE SYSTEM COMPARED TO THE GFS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM
SUPERBLEND POPS WHICH LIMITS CHANCES TO THE WESTERN CWA. PERIOD THEN
LOOKS MOSTLY DRY UNTIL PERHAPS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND WHEN
MODELS TRY TO BRING ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE AREA. 850
MB TEMPS GET RATHER WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO SATURDAY.
BUMPED UP HIGHS JUST ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 051750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS WITH THESE
STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND MODELS STILL SHOW ML CAPE VALUES TOPPING
OUT OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
IS BEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT INGREDIENTS STILL LOOK TO BE
SETTING UP AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
STILL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK. OVERALL THE TIMING
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE...MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 051750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS WITH THESE
STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND MODELS STILL SHOW ML CAPE VALUES TOPPING
OUT OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
IS BEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT INGREDIENTS STILL LOOK TO BE
SETTING UP AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
STILL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK. OVERALL THE TIMING
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE...MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 051750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS WITH THESE
STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND MODELS STILL SHOW ML CAPE VALUES TOPPING
OUT OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
IS BEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT INGREDIENTS STILL LOOK TO BE
SETTING UP AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
STILL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK. OVERALL THE TIMING
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE...MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 051750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS WITH THESE
STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND MODELS STILL SHOW ML CAPE VALUES TOPPING
OUT OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
IS BEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT INGREDIENTS STILL LOOK TO BE
SETTING UP AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
STILL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK. OVERALL THE TIMING
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE...MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. WILL INCLUDE
VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME UNTIL TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS
BECOME MORE CLEAR. MVFR CIGS/VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE AREA TODAY WILL
SWITCH SFC WINDS FROM A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TO MORE OF A
NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 051611 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1111 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS WITH THESE
STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND MODELS STILL SHOW ML CAPE VALUES TOPPING
OUT OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
IS BEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT INGREDIENTS STILL LOOK TO BE
SETTING UP AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
STILL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK. OVERALL THE TIMING
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE...MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTED
MONTANA LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND ND THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMBG BUT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING THEM NORTH SO HAVE NOT ADDED IN A MENTION
FOR THE TAF.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SEVERITY
WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTORMS WHEN VSBY
MAY DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 051611 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1111 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LINGERING SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY DISSIPATING OVER CORSON AND DEWEY
COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL STRATUS WITH THESE
STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAMPER DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION ARE SITTING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S...AND MODELS STILL SHOW ML CAPE VALUES TOPPING
OUT OVER 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHEAR
IS BEST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT INGREDIENTS STILL LOOK TO BE
SETTING UP AS PLANNED THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
STILL THE MAIN THREATS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
SPC STILL HAS THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK. OVERALL THE TIMING
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE...MAY HAVE TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTED
MONTANA LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND ND THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMBG BUT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING THEM NORTH SO HAVE NOT ADDED IN A MENTION
FOR THE TAF.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SEVERITY
WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTORMS WHEN VSBY
MAY DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 051140 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTED
MONTANA LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND ND THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMBG BUT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING THEM NORTH SO HAVE NOT ADDED IN A MENTION
FOR THE TAF.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SEVERITY
WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTORMS WHEN VSBY
MAY DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 051140 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTED
MONTANA LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND ND THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMBG BUT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING THEM NORTH SO HAVE NOT ADDED IN A MENTION
FOR THE TAF.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SEVERITY
WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTORMS WHEN VSBY
MAY DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 051140 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTED
MONTANA LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND ND THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMBG BUT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING THEM NORTH SO HAVE NOT ADDED IN A MENTION
FOR THE TAF.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SEVERITY
WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTORMS WHEN VSBY
MAY DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 050921
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOST OF
SUNDAY WILL BE VFR.  MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 050921
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOST OF
SUNDAY WILL BE VFR.  MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 050524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOST OF
SUNDAY WILL BE VFR.  MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 050524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOST OF
SUNDAY WILL BE VFR.  MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 050524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND MOST OF
SUNDAY WILL BE VFR.  MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVENING...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 050250 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 050250 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 050250 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 050250 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TNT. ISOLATED STORMS APPEAR TO BE GRADUALLY
FALLING APART NOW WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER LLJ GETS
CRANKED UP OVER ENTIRE CWA OVERNIGHT SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC GOING
POST MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. UPDATES ISSUED EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 042315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE
BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 042025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 042025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS YET THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERNS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE DAKOTAS...WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OCCURRING WITH IT. THERE IS A HINT OF A
WEAK...SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF WYOMING AND
FAR WESTERN SD. WITH SOME WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS REGION COULD SET THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW CAMS SOLUTIONS STILL SUGGEST STRONG STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...OR WHERE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OVERLAP. THE
STORMS...IF THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD PUSH SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA.

ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3K J/KG TO PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE
STORMS. THE LACK OF GOOD SHEAR AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR HOWEVER. THAT SAID...SPC DOES HAVE THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA UNDER ENHANCED RISK...THUS WILL INTRODUCE T+ INTO
THE FORECAST. PWATS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...NEAR THREE STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WHEN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD OPENS. IN FACT...MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE
SUGGESTING READINGS IN THE 40S TUESDAY. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG
UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AND POPS RETURN TO
THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY.
THURSDAY MAY PROVE TO BE A DRY DAY...HOWEVER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FETCH
PERSISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEAK /POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND/...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE THE SHORT TERM...BUT RETURN TO SEASONAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 041722 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1222 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND MAINLY BETWEEN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
THIS MAY AFFECT THE KPIR TAF SITE...BUT DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW
AREAL COVERAGE...NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED WITH THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 041545 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
DELAY POPS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT BEST. VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BY 21Z AT THE EARLIEST.
OTHERS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 0Z. THAT SAID...THERE IS A GENERAL
CONSENSUS WITH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 041144 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 041144 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE IS HAMPERING VISIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. ALL
BUT KPIR ARE DOWN TO MVFR OR IFR. WINDS AHEAD OF A FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
HELP SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE SMOKE AND VSBY IS FORECAST TO RISE
TO VFR.

STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY NEAR KPIR. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER THERE IS NO
MODEL CONSISTENCY AMONG THE HI-RES MODELS AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR FORMATION. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
HAVE NOT MENTIONED VCTS IN THE TAFS YET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 040838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 040838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK WAVE IS DRIFTING TOWARDS THE CWA TODAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF
THE WESTERN CONUS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS BEING PULLED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
THIS WAVE. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK MID LEVEL CONVECTION MOVE
INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...DESPITE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND OUR
PERSISTENT HAZE...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO BREAK THE
CAP. MLCAPE VALUES TOP OUT BETWEEN 2-3K J/KG CAPE...WITH NAM VALUES
CLOSER TO 4K ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
60S. DCAPE VALUES ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH...AROUND 2K J/KG...WITH BASES
AROUND 8KFT. GIVEN WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ANTICIPATE ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. EVEN IF WE FAIL TO ROOT IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY HELP GENERATE SOME
ACCAS SHOWERS/THUNDER. CAMS SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION BY DEPICTING THE
GENERATION OF A FEW CELLS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
NIGHT.  AT THIS POINT...EXPECT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
TO HOLD OFF FOR MOST OF THE DAY AS THE WAVE IS TOO FAR
UPSTREAM...THOUGH A FEW ELEVATED ACCAS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE ELEVATED MIX LAYER. THE CAP LOOKS VERY STRONG IN
SOUNDINGS...BUT 700MB TEMPERATURES DO BEGIN TO COOL AROUND 00-
03Z...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND COOLER TEMPS
KEEPING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY DAYTIME DRY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP
WITH A NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. WITH THE LLJ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND TSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST. THE TROUGH AND SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ON WED. MODELS
STILL DIFFER ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATE WED AND THU SO STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND FOR POPS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

EXPECT A WARMING TREND IN THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS STARTING OUT IN
THE 70S THEN CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 040524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 040524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040217 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
917 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SMOKE STILL STREAMING OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH FIRES IN CANADA. DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED AS LOW AS 2SM DUE TO
THE SMOKE. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 032327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 032327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SMOKE BEING CARRIED DOWN FROM FIRES IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT TIMES ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...THE SMOKE LAYER SHOULD RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO
BRING VFR VSBYS BACK TO THE REGION. VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 031919
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS TO GET A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY LATE
SUNDAY.  FOR TNT HARD TO PIN DOWN ANYTHING GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK ENERGY ALOFT...AND THE LLJ
SHOULD FOCUS OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THAT LLJ SHIFTS
EAST ON SATURDAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH ML CAPES EXCEEDING 1K J/KG BY AFTERNOON...AND H85
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN +10C.  HOWEVER SHEAR REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL.
NONETHELESS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS.  OVERNIGHT LLJ GETS STRONGER WITH AT LEAST
A CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OUT A HEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING
EML. THAT EML WILL PROBABLY HOLD MOST OF THE STORMS AT BAY UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  BY THAT TIME A
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BREAK
ANY CAP THAT MAY EXIST.  HOWEVER THERE IS ON CAVEAT.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS MARGINAL A HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  SO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE EASTERN CWA.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES..IT WILL BE WARM AND STICKY BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME RELIEF LATE DAY ON SUNDAY IN WEST...AND
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

COOLER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. SFC HIGH THEN SETTLES IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL LIKELY SET THE STAGE FOR A FAIRLY COOL NIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN. WITH THE SFC HIGH IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS. BY
MIDWEEK...WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS SO BASICALLY RAN WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 031742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WIDESPREAD SMOKE /FU/ CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION FROM
CANADIAN/ALASKAN WILDFIRES. VSBY IS GENERALLY 3SM TO 4SM ACROSS
THE TAF SITES ALTHOUGH VSBY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING KATY AT
THE MOMENT. THE SMOKE IS ALSO CREATING A CIG LAYER BUT IT IS VFR.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL ACTUAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON BUT CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR FOR THE MOST PART. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT BUT CAN EXPECT SMOKE TO ONCE AGAIN AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 031537 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1037 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 031537 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1037 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING. SMOKE IS MOVING DOWN INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AND THAT MAY LIMIT TEMP RISE A BIT. LATEST
NAM/HRRR ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 031129 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 031129 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NAM SUGGESTS
PROFILES ARE VERY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE HOWEVER...SO CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER/RUMBLE OF THUNDER. CAMS POINT TO THE EASTERN
CWA AS BEST LOCATION FOR ANY CONVECTION.

A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. VERY WEAK MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED
ACCAS SHOWER...BUT AGAIN MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WARM...PROFILES MAY REMAIN MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTORMS. BETTER CHANCES EXIST EARLY SUNDAY AM AS A
20 TO 30KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES TOP
OUT AROUND 1000 J/KG.

A SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. UPPER DYNAMICS LOOK TO SPLIT THE AREA DURING THE DAY
WITH LOWS FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. WE WILL BE LEFT
WITH A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY ALONG A SURFACE TROF SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KM MLCAPE. PROFILES
SUGGEST SHEAR WILL BE WEAK HOWEVER...RESIDING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...WHERE AN AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION MAY RESIDE.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUN DESPITE
BEST LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SITUATED WEST OF THE CWA. 700MB
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY NIGHT...AROUND +8 TO +12C...AHEAD OF
THE WEAK FRONT. THERE MAY BE GOOD MIXING IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY HIGH TEMPS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...HOWEVER
THAT DEPENDS ON THE COVERAGE OF POST FRONTAL CLOUD
COVER/PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE PATTERN SHIFTS FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS A COLD FRONT
TRAILS DOWN FROM A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CANADIAN LOW. WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOT OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS DOWN
FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT.

ANOTHER FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR/IFR VSBY IN FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 15Z. THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WILL BE VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





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