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000
FXUS63 KABR 242104
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
304 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SUNSHINE AND A GREATLY DIMINISHED SNOWPACK ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB PAST THEIR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SCT FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR EAST
UNDER A STRATOCU FIELD THAT IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO DEPART. FOR
LATER THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS
MOVES IN. INITIALLY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING AS WIND
DROPS OFF...SO EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS 925 MB TEMPS
ALSO WARM. ALTHOUGH...SFC WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE WARMER TEMPS AT THE SFC. THAT SAID...THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER MAKES
OVERNIGHT LOWS A CHALLENGE. EXPECTING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK SYSTEM
SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. SOME HI RES MODELS
INDICATING A FEW ECHOES DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL THIS
SHOULD BE A NON ISSUE AND CONFINED TO FLURRIES AT BEST. LEFT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CARRIED OVER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT ON A STORM TRACK...WHICH
BASICALLY TAKES IT RIGHT THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS NOW AND IT WAS THE
EC/GEM SOLUTIONS THAT BACKED WESTWARD TO MATCH UP. THIS PUTS THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. BY SAYING HEAVIEST...OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. WINDS DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE A HUGE FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WINDS WILL
TURN BREEZY NONETHELESS TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION
OF THE LOW TRACK...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WHERE
THE LEAST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. BUT EVEN ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE
MOST SNOW IS FORECAST...BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BLOW ANY FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW
AROUND AND COULD POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOWERED VSBY
ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT EARLY...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTEND INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH COULD CLIP OUR WESTERN CWA. MODELS DO SEEM TO BE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA COULD GET CLIPPED. STRONG MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ONGOING AT THIS TIME AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
INITIALLY. LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...TO NEAR 10 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...AND
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FORECAST TREND EVEN WARMER WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THESE
LAST FEW PERIOD. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY
FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS KATY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCT. -SN WILL ALSO AFFECT KATY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VSBY DOWN AROUND 3SM TO 4SM AT TIMES.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THOUGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DONE BY AROUND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT
LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BUT ITS A BIT UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT IF THEY WILL REMAIN LOW VFR OR ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO
MVFR. FOR NOW HAVE GONE LOW END VFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 242104
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
304 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SUNSHINE AND A GREATLY DIMINISHED SNOWPACK ACROSS THE CWA HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB PAST THEIR FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN MANY
LOCATIONS. ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SCT FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR EAST
UNDER A STRATOCU FIELD THAT IS QUICKLY BEGINNING TO DEPART. FOR
LATER THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS
MOVES IN. INITIALLY...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THIS EVENING AS WIND
DROPS OFF...SO EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES. AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS 925 MB TEMPS
ALSO WARM. ALTHOUGH...SFC WINDS WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO FULLY REALIZE WARMER TEMPS AT THE SFC. THAT SAID...THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND OVERALL WARMER AIR MASS MOVING
IN...COMBINED WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER MAKES
OVERNIGHT LOWS A CHALLENGE. EXPECTING MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE COLDEST READINGS OVER THE EASTERN
CWA WHERE SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THE LONGEST. THE AFOREMENTIONED
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY WEAK SYSTEM
SLIDING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. SOME HI RES MODELS
INDICATING A FEW ECHOES DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL THIS
SHOULD BE A NON ISSUE AND CONFINED TO FLURRIES AT BEST. LEFT IN
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CARRIED OVER FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT ON A STORM TRACK...WHICH
BASICALLY TAKES IT RIGHT THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS WHAT THE
GFS/NAM HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS NOW AND IT WAS THE
EC/GEM SOLUTIONS THAT BACKED WESTWARD TO MATCH UP. THIS PUTS THE
SWATH OF HEAVIEST SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. BY SAYING HEAVIEST...OVERALL SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...WITH GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED. WILL
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 IN THE
SISSETON HILLS REGION WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE. WINDS DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE A HUGE FACTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WINDS WILL
TURN BREEZY NONETHELESS TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE CONFIGURATION
OF THE LOW TRACK...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR WHERE
THE LEAST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. BUT EVEN ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE
MOST SNOW IS FORECAST...BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BLOW ANY FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW
AROUND AND COULD POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOWERED VSBY
ACROSS THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT EARLY...THEN REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EXTEND INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH COULD CLIP OUR WESTERN CWA. MODELS DO SEEM TO BE
TRENDING SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN NORTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST CWA COULD GET CLIPPED. STRONG MID LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE ONGOING AT THIS TIME AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH THE GFS LOOKS TO BE WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
INITIALLY. LEFT ONLY A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WITH THE WARM AIR PUSH...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PRECIP. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...925 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA...TO NEAR 10 C ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...AND
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FORECAST TREND EVEN WARMER WITH
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW TAKES OVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THESE
LAST FEW PERIOD. IT DOES APPEAR ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR IS LIKELY
FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS KATY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCT. -SN WILL ALSO AFFECT KATY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VSBY DOWN AROUND 3SM TO 4SM AT TIMES.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THOUGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DONE BY AROUND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT
LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BUT ITS A BIT UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT IF THEY WILL REMAIN LOW VFR OR ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO
MVFR. FOR NOW HAVE GONE LOW END VFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 241801 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1201 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL BUMPING
UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. WILL THEREFORE
LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF
18Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY APPEAR ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS KATY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCT. -SN WILL ALSO AFFECT KATY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VSBY DOWN AROUND 3SM TO 4SM AT TIMES.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THOUGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DONE BY AROUND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT
LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BUT ITS A BIT UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT IF THEY WILL REMAIN LOW VFR OR ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO
MVFR. FOR NOW HAVE GONE LOW END VFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 241801 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1201 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL BUMPING
UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. WILL THEREFORE
LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF
18Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY APPEAR ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER ACROSS KATY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...CIGS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE SCT. -SN WILL ALSO AFFECT KATY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH VSBY DOWN AROUND 3SM TO 4SM AT TIMES.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THOUGH THAT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE DONE BY AROUND 20Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATE TONIGHT
LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION BUT ITS A BIT UNCLEAR
AT THIS POINT IF THEY WILL REMAIN LOW VFR OR ACTUALLY SNEAK INTO
MVFR. FOR NOW HAVE GONE LOW END VFR AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241627 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL BUMPING
UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. WILL THEREFORE
LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF
18Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY APPEAR ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH MIDDAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 241627 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY ERODING FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
WX/POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE STILL BUMPING
UP AGAINST WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE EAST...MAINLY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS RIGHT AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES. WILL THEREFORE
LEAVE THE ADVISORY IN PLACE UNTIL THE ORIGINAL EXPIRATION TIME OF
18Z. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY APPEAR ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES NEEDED THERE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH MIDDAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH MIDDAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH VSBYS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EAST THROUGH MIDDAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.









&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
256 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS CHANGED OVER TO SNOW IN THE
COTEAU/MINNESOTA...SO DROPPED FREEZING RAIN ADV. WITH ONLY LOW
END SCATTERED COVERAGE...DOUBT ANYTHING MORE THEN A DUSTING
ACCUMULATION. WITH COLD ADVECTION TODAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE
RIGHT AROUND ADV LEVEL IN THE FAR EAST...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH.

WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT. PROFILES
GO FROM VERY DRY AROUND 800-850MB TO SATURATED BELOW 5KFT...WHICH
IS A LOW CONFIDENCE RED FLAG. TEMPS AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER ARE
COLD ENOUGH TO GET SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT THAT IS ONLY PROGGED TO
LAST AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE ICE IS NO LONGER AVAILABLE. WILL LIKELY
JUST SEE A COMBINATION OF FOG/STRATUS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL...BUT IF WE SEE FOG...THERE MAY BE SOME DEPOSITION/ICY ROADS
TO WATCH FOR.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IN A CLIPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY WITH DECENT
TRACK AND TIMING CONSISTENCY. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH ARE
BETWEEN 60 AND 80 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. WILL HAVE TO FURTHER
EVALUATE WINDS WITH AROUND AN 8-10MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
STATE AND A 10MB/6HRS PRESSURE BUBBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHEN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL GET
PUSHED EAST ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. CURRENT MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT
THE ECMWF AND GEM HINT AT THE NORTHEAST CWA GETTING CLIPPED
THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN DURING THAT TIME. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FRIDAY WHEN SOME WAA
DEVELOPS AND HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 30S.









&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 240523 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION. WIND
ADVISORY FOR BROWN/SPINK COUNTIES WESTWARD WILL BE TAKEN DOWN BY
MIDNIGHT...WHILE THE WIND ADVISORY FURTHER EAST AND THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY CONTINUE.

SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT KMBG/KPIR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE THE BACK EDGE OF THE STRATUS SHIELD MOVES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THESE TWO TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT
KABR/KATY WELL INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THIS SAME CLOUD EDGE
PUSHES THROUGH THESE TWO TERMINALS. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND
TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER.
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE
SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240433 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 240433 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1033 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO ADD FREEZING PRECIP PHENOMENON TO WX
GRIDS AND ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER OF SODAK AND WC MN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. GETTING
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
ADVISORY AREA. AND THEN LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHASE THE FZ RN
THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT.

FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GRANT-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-
     TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 240255 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
855 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
FIRST UPDATE THIS EVENING TO DROP THE WIND ADV HEADLINE FROM THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES WHICH WAS DUE TO GO AWAY AT 03Z ANYWAY.
IF WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WILL BE ABLE TO EXPIRE THE
WIND ADVISORY FROM THE NEXT TIER OF COUNTIES AT MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN STRONG CAA SEQUENCE. RADAR/OBS
SUGGEST A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 232349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS (AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 232349 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
549 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS (AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR/MVFR STRATUS CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS FOR QUITE
AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE THE CIGS ARE AROUND TONIGHT...CAN`T RULE OUT AN
OCCASIONAL FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO MONDAY BEFORE SPEEDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 232105
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 232105
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MAIN ISSUE FACING THE NEAR TERM INVOLVES WINDS(AND ASSOCIATED
HEADLINES) ALONG WITH PCPN CHANCES.

COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA AS ADVERTISED...WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH AROUND THE MO RIVER. LAMP GUIDANCE ALONG
WITH HOPWRF MEMBERS CONT TO SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR ADVRY LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAVORED
BUFFALO RIDGE REGION. HAVE EXTENDED COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVRY TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF MY ERN CWA THROUGH 18Z.

PCPN WISE...REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS DON`T SHOW A LOT FOR THE
AREA...BUT FIGURE THAT THE BEAM IS OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF THE PCPN.
BASED ON UPSTREAM REPORTS...DON`T REALLY THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH
MORE THAN FLURRIES ESPECIALLY WITH NO REAL AREAS OF FORCING SEEN
ON THE THETA-E SURFACES OR OMEGA LEVELS. PLUS...WITH WARM TEMPS
MELTING AND/OR CRUSTING SNOWCOVER...DON`T BELIEVE THAT BLSN IS
GOING TO BE AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AND REMOVED ALL WORDING.

WITH CAA...TEMPS WILL FREEFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE RECOVERY
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

FIRST AREA OF CONCERN IS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING A TOUGH TIME AGREEING ON CLIPPER LOW TRACK EVEN AS CLOSE AS
TWO DAYS OUT. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE MORE WESTERLY
TRACK...TAKING THE BULK OF SNOW RIGHT THROUGH THE CWA. THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EASTERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE BULK
OF SNOW EITHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OR PRETTY MUCH OUT
OF THE CWA ENTIRELY. TAKING MORE OF A MIDDLE ROAD APPROACH FOR NOW
UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IS REACHED. THIS RESULTED IN INCREASING
POPS AND SNOW AMOUNT A BIT ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA. ALTHOUGH...OVER WESTERN SD IT APPEARS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE DEVELOPING WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT SETS
UP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS GENERATING PRECIP WITH THIS AND
INHERITED SUPERBLEND POPS LOOK OK FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITH WIDELY VARYING
SOLUTIONS. CURRENT SUPERBLEND GRIDS DO NOT SHOW PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-
     DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1150 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.







&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR WEST WINDS
AND MILD TEMPS TO OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. FROPA ALREADY THROUGH
KMBG...AND WILL BE THROUGH KPIR BY 20Z...KABR AND KATY BY 23Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. CIGS
WILL BE LOW VFR THROUGH 10Z MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING FEW-SCT.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231544
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231544
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
944 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TEMP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT
LOOK FOR READINGS TO BEGIN FALLING SHORTLY AFT 18Z AS WAA BEGINS
TO WEAKEN. ADDITIONALLY...ONCE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH WRM FRONT
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...DON`T REALLY SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
ADDITIONAL CHANCES UNTIL MID AFTERNOON CLOSER TO COLD FROPA. WITH
EXCEPTION BEING THE NW AND NC PARTS OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF PCPN FOR THE CWA. UPDATED ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE ALREADY
SENT.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-
     SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY/TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATER TODAY.

80KT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE CWA THIS AM RESULTING IN LIGHT
RAIN. THE MILD/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ALL THE
WAY INTO FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. A WIND SHIFT ALONG THE
ND/MT/CANADIAN BORDER MARKS THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE READINGS TO DROP
INTO THE 20S. CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT REMAIN LOW AS NAM BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST SHALLOW
BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING WEAK
CONVECTION. MIXED DOWN WINDS ARE ALSO ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...SO WILL EXPAND THE WIND ADVISORY INTO FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THE GRADIENT RELAXES A TAD TONIGHT OUT
WEST...WITH ADVISORY WINDS PERSISTING IN THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
MONDAY AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD AND LAPSE RATES
DROP. WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOWING SNOW...HOWEVER IMPACTS APPEAR MINIMAL
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED MODELS OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GEM KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
JUST OVER AND OFF TO THE EAST...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH
BASICALLY NO PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND...WHICH KEEPS SMALL POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH
THE TUESDAY NIGHT CLIPPER...AND THEN KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS REMAINING AT VFR LEVELS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AFFECTING KPIR AND KMBG. MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE CWA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST
     /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-
     JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HYDE-MCPHERSON-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230556 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN TO THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WILL UPDATE THE
KABR/KATY TAFS TO ADD RAIN MENTION AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230556 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1156 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN
NOW AND 12Z SUNDAY...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MOVING IN TO THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. WILL UPDATE THE
KABR/KATY TAFS TO ADD RAIN MENTION AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY
MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG
WINDS WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230303 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z SUNDAY. IF IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT ANY TERMINAL WILL UPDATE TO ADD
RAIN MENTION. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT LIGHT RAIN
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT...MAINLY
MVFR...FG/BR OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AT
KABR/KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOG FORECASTS IN THE KABR/KATY
TAFS AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 230303 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
903 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO P-TYPE FORECAST TONIGHT BASED OFF
OBSERVATIONS AND 18Z GFS/NAM SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT. SWITCHED P-TYPE
TO RAIN-ONLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA AND SURFACE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ONGOING BENEATH BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 32F OVERNIGHT. SNOW/FREEZING RAIN SEEMS
LIKE A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE TONIGHT. ALSO ADJUSTED
COVERAGE/TIMING OF FOG MENTION OVER THE EASTERN CWA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SURFACE TROF...WHERE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS HAVE
FALLEN TO 3 DEGREES OR LESS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
TERMINALS MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z SUNDAY. IF IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN
IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND AT ANY TERMINAL WILL UPDATE TO ADD
RAIN MENTION. JUST NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT LIGHT RAIN
RIGHT NOW. THERE IS STILL A THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT...MAINLY
MVFR...FG/BR OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROF AT
KABR/KATY. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST FOG FORECASTS IN THE KABR/KATY
TAFS AS NEEDED. BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEHIND THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222139
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 222139
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

AREA OF FOG MADE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ITS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN HAMLIN...SOUTHERN DEUEL AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CODINGTON COUNTIES. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS
STOPPED NOW THAT THE SUN IS OUT. BRANDT WEBCAM SHOWING RATHER
DENSE FOG AFFECTING I-29. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
NICELY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL EFFECTS CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221650 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

AREA OF FOG MADE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ITS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN HAMLIN...SOUTHERN DEUEL AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CODINGTON COUNTIES. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS
STOPPED NOW THAT THE SUN IS OUT. BRANDT WEBCAM SHOWING RATHER
DENSE FOG AFFECTING I-29. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
NICELY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL EFFECTS CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221650 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

AREA OF FOG MADE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE ALREADY UPDATED ZFP/GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. ITS MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN HAMLIN...SOUTHERN DEUEL AND
FAR SOUTHEAST CODINGTON COUNTIES. NORTHWARD PROGRESSION HAS
STOPPED NOW THAT THE SUN IS OUT. BRANDT WEBCAM SHOWING RATHER
DENSE FOG AFFECTING I-29. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
NICELY TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE CWA. NO CHANGES TO
FORECAST HIGHS AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POTENTIAL EFFECTS CLOUDS MAY HAVE ON TEMPS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON
THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AREAS OF FOG HAVE FORMED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
MORNING...AFFECTING KPIR. THIS FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220942
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.











&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220942
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY

H925 TEMPERATURES RUN FROM +1 TO +6C THIS AM. A TROF DEVELOPS OUT
WEST TODAY...WHICH SHIFTS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SHALLOW INVERSION...WILL SEE A RAPID WARM UP WITH PLENTY OF SUN
TODAY. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TONIGHT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD THANKS TO
EFFICIENT MIXING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE
ORDER OF 30 TO 40KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST RIVER BY MID
AFTERNOON. A 12 TO 16MB PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES IN...WHICH WILL KEEP
WINDS UP. A 1035MB HIGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL KEEP
A GRADIENT IN PLACE...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES SHIFTING TOWARDS
MINNESOTA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MIXED DOWN WINDS CONTINUE TO TOP
OUT AROUND 50MPH WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARDS EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS BEST FORCING IS ELSEWHERE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
IN THE NAM SUGGEST A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT TO PRECIPITATION
SUN/SUN NIGHT. WRAP AROUND QPF COULD REMAIN IN THE EAST FOR
MONDAY. OUR CURRENT SNOW PACK...IF IT REMAINS...WILL
REFREEZE...HOWEVER WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. WILL THEN SEE A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK TO INDICATE SOME LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE CWA.
THERE ARE THEN MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED MODELS FOR THE
MID PART OF THE WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM TRACK A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SNOWY AND BREEZY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE SNOW
AREA. THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH NO PRECIPITATION OCCURRING. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP A SMALL POP IN...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
GFS AND GEM. THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THEY WILL BE WARMER WITH THE
GFS/GEM SOLUTION AND MUCH COLDER IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. FOR
NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.











&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220543 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 220543 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220307 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
907 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SISSETON HILLS AREA
THIS EVENING WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATER. WILL LEAVE IN THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
NOW. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S BY MORNING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ABR
AND ATY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220307 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
907 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SISSETON HILLS AREA
THIS EVENING WITH 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THESE WILL
LIKELY DECREASE LATER. WILL LEAVE IN THE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR
NOW. EXPECT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S BY MORNING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ABR
AND ATY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 212337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
537 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ABR
AND ATY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 212337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
537 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES...WITH WARM AIR IN PLACE
OVER A SNOW FIELD.

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY SUNNY SKY...TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING
INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO A
DOWN SLOPE WIND EVENT ONGOING ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE LEE OF THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS SHOWING UP ON SOME OF THE LOCAL OBSERVATIONS BETWEEN 40
AND 50 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU. TRAVELERS WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE ON
THE ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AND AREAS
OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...WITH A WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...THE AUTOMATIC REACTION/RESPONSE IS TO THINK FOG WILL
FORM. BUT...FOG/LOW STRATUS HAS NOT DEVELOPED OVER THIS CWA EITHER
TIME IT WAS EXPECTED TO OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO WILL BE
BACK PEDDLING TONIGHT AND LEAVE THE OPTION ON THE TABLE FOR THE
EVENING SHIFT TO ADD IN SOME FOG MENTION...IF IT LOOKS LIKE IT`S
STARTING TO DEVELOP. ALSO...WILL BE LEAVING IN THE MENTION OF
BLOWING SNOW IN THE LEE OF THE COTEAU OVERNIGHT AS 0.5KM/925HPA
WINDS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 20 TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD. NUDGED THE KABR
FORECAST TEMPERATURE DOWN A GOOD 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER THAN
SURROUNDING AREAS GIVEN ITS TENDENCY TO REGISTER COLDER AT NIGHT
IN THESE TYPES OF REGIMES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE
30S AND IN PLACES THE 40S AGAIN ON SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WARM FRONT WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP AS WELL AS SFC
TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING AS BETTER WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
DEVELOP. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT QUITE TRICKY AS WILL BE
DEALING WITH WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ALSO HAVE TO ESTIMATE OVERALL
CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS WHICH WILL HAVE EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WITH
COLDER AIR AND STRONG WINDS BEHIND IT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...EVEN INTO MONDAY AS WELL.
MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW THERE WILL BE
OVER EASTERN SD...WITH THE EC BASICALLY DRY AND THE GFS SHOWING
NEARLY AN INCH. STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AND ALSO INSERTED
SOME BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE STILL MANY
DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO SPEED/STRENGTH ETC SO
PRETTY MUCH ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW UNTIL TIME GETS
CLOSER. ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVING IN
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 1040 MB SFC HIGH SETTLES IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG AT ABR
AND ATY LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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