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000
FXUS63 KABR 210527 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH LYMAN AND
SOUTHERN HUGHES COUNTY. LIKE THE HRRR DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD SO NUDGED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE 21Z
GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA KEPT THIS AREA DRY. DUE TO THE 35 DEGREE
DEWPOINT SPREAD AND THE LACK OF ANY STRONG ECHOES THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ALL VIRGA IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES IN THE NORTH...FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY TO CORSON COUNTY. EVEN WITH MOISTER AID ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...NORTHERN UPSTREAM OBS HAVE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO TANK AFTER SUNSET SINCE WINDS ARE LIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE AIDED IN A
LITTLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW ON MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...DECENT MIXING WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE EASTERN CWA...AND WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CWA...INCLUDING THE TWO MINNESOTA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THINGS STAY QUIET
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH THE HIGH DOMINANT ON MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
60S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A RISE IN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER 30S
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE TRICKY AS
DETAILS DIFFER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NE MT. HAVE TRENDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE DRY SLOT INFLUENCE
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS STRONG. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT THIS UPPER WILL
DO...EC HAS IT WEAKENING THEN REORGANIZING IT OVER NORTHERN MN.
EXPECT SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON
POSITION OF DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
IT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHAT AREAS STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO POP BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING IN THE RIDGE WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND A QUICK RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH ALL SITES EXCEPT
KATY WHICH SHOULD EXPERIENCE VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH FROPA BRIEFLY
BETWEEN 6Z AND 8Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 15 TO 30
KTS AT ALL SITES BY LATE MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER JAMES RIVER.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 210006 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
706 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH LYMAN AND
SOUTHERN HUGHES COUNTY. LIKE THE HRRR DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD SO NUDGED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE 21Z
GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA KEPT THIS AREA DRY. DUE TO THE 35 DEGREE
DEWPOINT SPREAD AND THE LACK OF ANY STRONG ECHOES THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ALL VIRGA IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES IN THE NORTH...FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY TO CORSON COUNTY. EVEN WITH MOISTER AID ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...NORTHERN UPSTREAM OBS HAVE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO TANK AFTER SUNSET SINCE WINDS ARE LIGHT.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE AIDED IN A
LITTLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW ON MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...DECENT MIXING WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE EASTERN CWA...AND WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CWA...INCLUDING THE TWO MINNESOTA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THINGS STAY QUIET
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH THE HIGH DOMINANT ON MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
60S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A RISE IN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER 30S
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.




.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE TRICKY AS
DETAILS DIFFER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NE MT. HAVE TRENDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE DRY SLOT INFLUENCE
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS STRONG. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT THIS UPPER WILL
DO...EC HAS IT WEAKENING THEN REORGANIZING IT OVER NORTHERN MN.
EXPECT SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON
POSITION OF DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
IT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHAT AREAS STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO POP BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING IN THE RIDGE WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND A QUICK RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. DID ADD SOME VCTS TO KPIR AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING AND MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE METAR SITE. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF KATY AFT 03Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING AT 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER JAMES RIVER.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 202032
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
332 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE AIDED IN A
LITTLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW ON MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...DECENT MIXING WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE EASTERN CWA...AND WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CWA...INCLUDING THE TWO MINNESOTA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THINGS STAY QUIET
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH THE HIGH DOMINANT ON MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
60S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A RISE IN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER 30S
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE TRICKY AS
DETAILS DIFFER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NE MT. HAVE TRENDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE DRY SLOT INFLUENCE
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS STRONG. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT THIS UPPER WILL
DO...EC HAS IT WEAKENING THEN REORGANIZING IT OVER NORTHERN MN.
EXPECT SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON
POSITION OF DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
IT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHAT AREAS STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO POP BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING IN THE RIDGE WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND A QUICK RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VCTY OF KATY AFT 00Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER JAMES RIVER.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 201717
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1217 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
I90 CORRIDOR. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH MU-CAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG BY 0Z. FORCING FROM A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL SD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD TRACK E-SE ALONG THE BETTER LLM. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WITH LACK OF LLM...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC
POPS.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S...IN MN...TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LATEST COLLECTION OF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BUT WITH SOME SLOWING AND
AMPLIFICATION AS ENERGY EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECENT LOOKING UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD SEND IT EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN GOES THROUGH SOME WEAKENING AND AWAITS THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
BOTTOM OF MID LEVEL TROF. AT THAT POINT THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
MORE BAROCLINIC AND BEGIN HEADING EAST. NONETHELESS PCPN CHANCES
ABOUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS COMPLICATED MID
LEVEL TROF CROSSES/EVOLVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THEY COULD
BE DOWNRIGHT COLD AT WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AND
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF KATY AFT 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 201515 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
I90 CORRIDOR. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH MU-CAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG BY 0Z. FORCING FROM A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL SD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD TRACK E-SE ALONG THE BETTER LLM. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WITH THE COLD
FRONT. WITH LACK OF LLM...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC
POPS.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S...IN MN...TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL SD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE LATEST COLLECTION OF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BUT WITH SOME SLOWING AND
AMPLIFICATION AS ENERGY EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECENT LOOKING UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD SEND IT EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN GOES THROUGH SOME WEAKENING AND AWAITS THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
BOTTOM OF MID LEVEL TROF. AT THAT POINT THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
MORE BAROCLINIC AND BEGIN HEADING EAST. NONETHELESS PCPN CHANCES
ABOUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS COMPLICATED MID
LEVEL TROF CROSSES/EVOLVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THEY COULD
BE DOWNRIGHT COLD AT WEEKS END.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THIS WAVE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 201114 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
614 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
I90 CORRIDOR. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH MU-CAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG BY 0Z. FORCING FROM A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL SD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD TRACK E-SE ALONG THE BETTER LLM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH LACK
OF LLM...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S...IN MN...TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LATEST COLLECTION OF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BUT WITH SOME SLOWING AND
AMPLIFICATION AS ENERGY EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECENT LOOKING UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD SEND IT EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN GOES THROUGH SOME WEAKENING AND AWAITS THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
BOTTOM OF MID LEVEL TROF. AT THAT POINT THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
MORE BAROCLINIC AND BEGIN HEADING EAST. NONETHELESS PCPN CHANCES
ABOUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS COMPLICATED MID
LEVEL TROF CROSSES/EVOLVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THEY COULD
BE DOWNRIGHT COLD AT WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THIS WAVE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200845
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MN TODAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
ADVECTING NORTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE
I90 CORRIDOR. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS ALONG
WITH MU-CAPE VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG BY 0Z. FORCING FROM A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL SD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
SHOULD TRACK E-SE ALONG THE BETTER LLM. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER WITH THE COLD FRONT. WITH LACK
OF LLM...WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING DRY BUT
COOLER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S. THE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 60S...IN MN...TO THE MID 70S IN CENTRAL SD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE LATEST COLLECTION OF LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL PATTERN...BUT WITH SOME SLOWING AND
AMPLIFICATION AS ENERGY EXITS THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE RELATIVELY SIMILAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DECENT LOOKING UPPER TROF/SFC FRONT WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL SURGE OF THE SFC FRONT
SHOULD SEND IT EAST ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE FRONT THEN GOES THROUGH SOME WEAKENING AND AWAITS THE
NEXT BATCH OF ENERGY TO SLIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE
BOTTOM OF MID LEVEL TROF. AT THAT POINT THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME
MORE BAROCLINIC AND BEGIN HEADING EAST. NONETHELESS PCPN CHANCES
ABOUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD AS COMPLICATED MID
LEVEL TROF CROSSES/EVOLVES OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY START OUT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT THEY COULD
BE DOWNRIGHT COLD AT WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THIS WAVE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
WARM...WITH AN EXPECTED COOL OFF AFTER SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
WEAK LIFT AND SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
BACK IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CWA.

WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL THEN SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ON MONDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDING ON TUESDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AS A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH NEARS THE ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOW MANY
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF STILL THE FASTER AND FURTHEST NORTH
SOLUTION AS COMPARED THE GFS/GEM. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY UNDER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EITHER CLOSING OFF AND OCCLUDING OVER
THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE GFS/GEM WOULD SUGGEST...OR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE THAT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE
BECOMING STACKED AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY
MANIFESTS ITSELF IN CONTINUOUS POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THIS WAVE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 192336 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING IS KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
WARM...WITH AN EXPECTED COOL OFF AFTER SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
WEAK LIFT AND SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
BACK IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CWA.

WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL THEN SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ON MONDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDING ON TUESDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AS A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH NEARS THE ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOW MANY
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF STILL THE FASTER AND FURTHEST NORTH
SOLUTION AS COMPARED THE GFS/GEM. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY UNDER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EITHER CLOSING OFF AND OCCLUDING OVER
THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE GFS/GEM WOULD SUGGEST...OR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE THAT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE
BECOMING STACKED AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY
MANIFESTS ITSELF IN CONTINUOUS POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.




&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THIS WAVE. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE
ANTICIPATED.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 192016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND WILL CROSS THE CWA SUNDAY EVENING. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT
SUNDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.
WEAK LIFT AND SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
BACK IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE CWA.

WARMER AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. WILL THEN SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ON MONDAY...BUT HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH MAINLY 60S EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S THROUGH THE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDING ON TUESDAY QUICKLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD AS A
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH NEARS THE ROCKIES. MODELS STILL SHOW MANY
DIFFERENCES...WITH THE ECMWF STILL THE FASTER AND FURTHEST NORTH
SOLUTION AS COMPARED THE GFS/GEM. REGARDLESS...PRECIP CHANCES WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY UNDER DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION REMAIN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE MAIN UPPER LOW THEN MOVES
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EITHER CLOSING OFF AND OCCLUDING OVER
THE REGION BY THURSDAY AS THE GFS/GEM WOULD SUGGEST...OR A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE THAT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE
BECOMING STACKED AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. THE UNCERTAINTY
MANIFESTS ITSELF IN CONTINUOUS POPS THROUGH FRIDAY. CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT BY SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR
VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191726 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THESE AREAS TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WINDS ARE BRIEF...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL DEPART THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS AT 925/850MB REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME LLM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ONLY REACHING FOUR TENTH OF
INCH. FOR COMPARISON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION HAD AROUND SIXTH TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OCCURRING.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE LONG TERM...BUT DOES ALSO APPEAR TO TAKE ON MORE
AMPLITUDE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD S/W RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ASHORE THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING/DEEPENING NOTED IN THE UPPER TROF.
PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
SFC WAVE AND ANY DRY SLOTTING THAT MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING OUT OF THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. NO RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR
VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191523 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER HANGING ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OVER THE AREA...EXPECT
THESE AREAS TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED
SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WINDS ARE BRIEF...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL DEPART THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS AT 925/850MB REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME LLM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ONLY REACHING FOUR TENTH OF
INCH. FOR COMPARISON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION HAD AROUND SIXTH TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OCCURRING.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE LONG TERM...BUT DOES ALSO APPEAR TO TAKE ON MORE
AMPLITUDE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD S/W RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ASHORE THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING/DEEPENING NOTED IN THE UPPER TROF.
PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
SFC WAVE AND ANY DRY SLOTTING THAT MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PCPN.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KATY THIS
MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191204 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
704 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WINDS ARE BRIEF...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL DEPART THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS AT 925/850MB REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME LLM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ONLY REACHING FOUR TENTH OF
INCH. FOR COMPARISON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION HAD AROUND SIXTH TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OCCURRING.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE LONG TERM...BUT DOES ALSO APPEAR TO TAKE ON MORE
AMPLITUDE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD S/W RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ASHORE THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING/DEEPENING NOTED IN THE UPPER TROF.
PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
SFC WAVE AND ANY DRY SLOTTING THAT MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KATY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 191120 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
620 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WINDS ARE BRIEF...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL DEPART THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS AT 925/850MB REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME LLM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ONLY REACHING FOUR TENTH OF
INCH. FOR COMPARISON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION HAD AROUND SIXTH TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OCCURRING.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE LONG TERM...BUT DOES ALSO APPEAR TO TAKE ON MORE
AMPLITUDE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD S/W RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ASHORE THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING/DEEPENING NOTED IN THE UPPER TROF.
PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
SFC WAVE AND ANY DRY SLOTTING THAT MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. THE
WIND WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
MORNING. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AROUND KATY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 190859
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
359 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. SOME LOCATIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WINDS ARE BRIEF...A WIND ADVISORY
WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT PRODUCED THE
STRONG WINDS OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS WILL DEPART THE REGION
TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. TEMPS AT 925/850MB REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMO TODAY AND ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY MIXING WINDS
HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S...TO THE LOWER 70S.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME LLM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER MOST OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY DRY WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PLACEMENT ONLY REACHING FOUR TENTH OF
INCH. FOR COMPARISON...THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION HAD AROUND SIXTH TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
MOSTLY SPRINKLES OCCURRING.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE LONG WAVE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE CONUS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
DURING THE LONG TERM...BUT DOES ALSO APPEAR TO TAKE ON MORE
AMPLITUDE. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD S/W RIDGING WILL PROVIDE FOR
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. HOWEVER ENERGY COMING ASHORE THE WESTERN
CONUS WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME SLOWING/DEEPENING NOTED IN THE UPPER TROF.
PCPN CHANCES LOOK PRETTY GOOD FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MAIN SFC LOW MOVES JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA. POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ARE
SOMEWHAT BROAD BRUSH GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
SFC WAVE AND ANY DRY SLOTTING THAT MIGHT OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL
START OFF NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN SHOULD TREND BELOW NORMAL
ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GIVEN ALL THE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
HEAD OF A FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KABR/KATY WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OUT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS PRESSURE RISES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190602 AAE
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
102 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL A PORTION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY. WINDS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY ARE NO
LONGER REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN CWA
GOING FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
HEAD OF A FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KABR/KATY WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OUT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS PRESSURE RISES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190533 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL MONITORING WIND SPEEDS AMID THIS WIND ADVISORY. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A GOOD
10 TO 15 MPH MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. PER THE 00Z KABR UPPER AIR SOUNDING
AND THE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ANYWHERE FROM 1000FT AGL TO 3500F
AGL...STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR MIXING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS
DOWN TO THE GROUND OCCASIONALLY. SEEING SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS
DEVELOPING ATTM OUT WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWN SLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. A
HEAD OF A FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT KABR/KATY WELL
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. OUT WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL ALSO
BE GUSTY FOR A RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AS PRESSURE RISES
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO BRING SOME
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-
     POTTER-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-CLARK-
     DAY-MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 190237 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
937 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
STILL MONITORING WIND SPEEDS AMID THIS WIND ADVISORY. WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF A GOOD
10 TO 15 MPH MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE
AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. PER THE 00Z KABR UPPER AIR SOUNDING
AND THE RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT SHOWING 45 TO 50 KNOTS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ANYWHERE FROM 1000FT AGL TO 3500F
AGL...STILL PLENTY OF POTENTIAL FOR MIXING SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS
DOWN TO THE GROUND OCCASIONALLY. SEEING SOME VERY WEAK RETURNS
DEVELOPING ATTM OUT WEST JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WORKING
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COMMON WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
AT KABR/KATY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASING
AND SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A
FEW HIGH-BASED WEAK RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

JUST A QUICK UPDATE HERE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANGES TO THE WIND
ADVISORY. ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...SO IT EXTENDS OVER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER NOW /PLUS
LYMAN COUNTY WEST RIVER/...AND MADE ALL THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WEST
OF BROWN/SPINK EXTEND IN TIME TO 1 AM CDT AS THERE SHOULD BE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THEN WHICH SHOULD HAVE THE WINDS
SETTLING DOWN BY THEN AND SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
POST-FRONTAL. ABERDEEN/REDFIELD OVER ONTO A PORTION OF THE COTEAU
ARE NOW IN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT...BEFORE SAME FRONTAL
PASSAGE REASONING APPLIES. AND FINALLY...WATERTOWN/SISSETON AREAS
EAST INTO WC MINNESOTA ARE IN IT UNTIL 7 AM CDT ON SATURDAY.

THE 0.5KM WIND PROGS OFF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/LOCAL WRF AND LATEST
AVAILABLE 925HPA/850HPA WIND PROGS IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE GONNA STAY RIDICULOUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE COMMON WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY
AT KABR/KATY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...DECREASING
AND SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE MAY EVEN BE A
FEW HIGH-BASED WEAK RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182258 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
558 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE HERE TO HIGHLIGHT SOME CHANGES TO THE WIND
ADVISORY. ADDED A TIER OF COUNTIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
ADVISORY...SO IT EXTENDS OVER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER NOW /PLUS
LYMAN COUNTY WEST RIVER/...AND MADE ALL THE ADVISORY COUNTIES WEST
OF BROWN/SPINK EXTEND IN TIME TO 1 AM CDT AS THERE SHOULD BE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THEN WHICH SHOULD HAVE THE WINDS
SETTLING DOWN BY THEN AND SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
POST-FRONTAL. ABERDEEN/REDFIELD OVER ONTO A PORTION OF THE COTEAU
ARE NOW IN THE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT...BEFORE SAME FRONTAL
PASSAGE REASONING APPLIES. AND FINALLY...WATERTOWN/SISSETON AREAS
EAST INTO WC MINNESOTA ARE IN IT UNTIL 7 AM CDT ON SATURDAY.

THE 0.5KM WIND PROGS OFF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/LOCAL WRF AND LATEST
AVAILABLE 925HPA/850HPA WIND PROGS IN THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE GONNA STAY RIDICULOUS THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. UPDATES ARE OUT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-LYMAN-MCPHERSON-POTTER-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-
     HAMLIN-ROBERTS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BROWN-CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182034
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HI-
RES MODELS ARE INDICATING BEST PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND THEN INTO NORTHEASTERN SD/WEST CENTRAL MN. BASED ON
LACK OF AVAILABLE LLM COULD SEE LEANING TOWARD LOWER POPS SAT
MORNING FOR THE EAST BUT STUCK WITH CHANCE POPS FOR COLLABORATION
PURPOSES.

THE WIND FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER CHALLENGE. THE LOCAL
4KM SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH TONIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOME DOWNSLOPING
OCCURS. HAVE A WIND ADVISORY OUT RIGHT NOW FOR A LARGER PORTION OF
THE AREA BUT MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FOR
ANOTHER 6 HOURS.

FIRE WX WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BEHIND THE LOW
ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. RH WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S SO NOT
QUITE HEADLINE CRITERIA BUT GETTING CLOSE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE EASTER WEEKEND.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DOMINANT...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. MAY EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THE ENTIRE TIME...BUT THE GFS IS
HINTING AT A POTENTIAL DRY PERIOD ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BAND
PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MOVES IN. DUE TO
THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO JUST KEEP A SMALL POP
GOING THE ENTIRE TIME...SIMILAR TO THE ALLBLEND.

WILL GENERALLY SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR LOOKS TO MOVE IN AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD...SO HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY ONLY REACH THE 50S.








&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-
     HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181806 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
106 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. WITH THE GOOD MIXING TEMPS HAVE JUMPED QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
MODELS AND THE CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE ECMWF OPTED TO REALLY CUT
BACK ON POPS TONIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PLUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYIS AS IT CROSSES THIS CWA TONIGHT. WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXCEPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
STILL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS.

WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AOA CLIMO ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT PERHAPS SLOW UP A BIT AND AMPLIFY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
EJECTION PROCESS/EVOLUTION/SPEED IS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS SO
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE UP FOR GRABS. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS POINT
TOWARD DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT SAID
MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT SVR
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
OUT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 MPH AT TIMES FOR THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE GLACIAL LAKES AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
A DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST REASON IS BECAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WHERE
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST...OR BETWEEN 40 TO 50
PERCENT. SECONDLY...THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL OCCUR WHERE WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181726 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. WITH THE GOOD MIXING TEMPS HAVE JUMPED QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
MODELS AND THE CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE ECMWF OPTED TO REALLY CUT
BACK ON POPS TONIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE
FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PLUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT CROSSES THIS CWA TONIGHT. WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXCEPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
STILL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS.

WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AOA CLIMO ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT PERHAPS SLOW UP A BIT AND AMPLIFY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
EJECTION PROCESS/EVOLUTION/SPEED IS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE
MODELS SO FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE UP FOR GRABS. HOWEVER...ALL
MODELS POINT TOWARD DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT SAID
MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT SVR
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
OUT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181605 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1105 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
EXPECTED. WITH THE GOOD MIXING TEMPS HAVE JUMPED QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES
MODELS AND THE CONSISTENT TRENDS IN THE ECMWF OPTED TO REALLY CUT
BACK ON POPS TONIGHT...KEEPING CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONFINED TO THE
NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COUNTIES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PLUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYIS AS IT CROSSES THIS CWA TONIGHT. WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXCEPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
STILL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS.

WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AOA CLIMO ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT PERHAPS SLOW UP A BIT AND AMPLIFY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
EJECTION PROCESS/EVOLUTION/SPEED IS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS SO
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE UP FOR GRABS. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS POINT
TOWARD DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT SAID
MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT SVR
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
OUT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-BUFFALO-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HYDE-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PLUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS AS IT CROSSES THIS CWA TONIGHT. WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXCEPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
STILL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS.

WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AOA CLIMO ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT PERHAPS SLOW UP A BIT AND AMPLIFY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
EJECTION PROCESS/EVOLUTION/SPEED IS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS SO
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE UP FOR GRABS. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS POINT
TOWARD DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT SAID
MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT SVR
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
OUT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES THIS MORNING AND GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 MPH AT TIMES FOR THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE GLACIAL LAKES AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
A DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST REASON IS BECAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WHERE
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST...OR BETWEEN 40 TO 50
PERCENT. SECONDLY...THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL OCCUR WHERE WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-
     HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 180915
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
415 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DICUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE PLUS OTHER HI-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 18Z FOR
MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER 0Z DUE TO THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN THE JAMES AND
MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS MAY PROMOTE GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE LEE SIDE
OF THE SISSETON HILLS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATER THIS EVENING
WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYIS AS IT CROSSES THIS CWA TONIGHT. WITH
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXCEPT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND WEAK
FORCING WILL MAINTAIN SCHC POPS TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA
STILL HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS.

WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING AOA CLIMO ON SATURDAY AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE...HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 60S. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT PERHAPS SLOW UP A BIT AND AMPLIFY
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE WEST COAST ABOUT TUESDAY AND THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THE
EJECTION PROCESS/EVOLUTION/SPEED IS A BIT DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE MODELS SO
FORECAST DETAILS WILL BE UP FOR GRABS. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS POINT
TOWARD DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...PERHAPS EVEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH THAT SAID
MIXED LAYER CAPES WERE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO AT THIS POINT SVR
WEATHER CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
OUT NEAR TO EVEN ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY BREEZES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45 MPH AT TIMES FOR THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND THE GLACIAL LAKES AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
A DRY AIRMASS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL
PRODUCE MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TWO REASONS.
THE FIRST REASON IS BECAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR WHERE
THE MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE THE HIGHEST...OR BETWEEN 40 TO 50
PERCENT. SECONDLY...THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL OCCUR WHERE WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-
     HYDE-MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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