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000
FXUS63 KABR 242005
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
305 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WESTERLY WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPS
ARE SPIKING NICELY. 80 DEGREES CURRENTLY IN ABR AND HAVE HAD TO
INCREASE HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR TODAY. FOR TONIGHT...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. DROPPED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WELL INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. LONG NIGHTS THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO FALL NICELY. ONLY THING STOPPING THIS WOULD BE ANY
SIGNIFICANT MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD OVERHEAD...BUT AT THIS
POINT THERE IS NO HARD EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THIS.

MILD TEMPS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SUNDAY SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER RATHER WARM DAY AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES. SEEMS LIKE A CLASSIC SETUP FOR REAL GOOD WARMING THAT
RECENT FORECASTS THE PAST WEEK OR TWO HAVE UNDERESTIMATED. VERY
WARM TEMPS AT 850MB ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY MIXING WINDS
TURNING WESTERLY. RH AT 850 MB DOES INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHICH MAY INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD
COVER...SO WILL BE SLIGHTLY CONSERVATIVE AT THIS POINT...BUT I
COULD EASILY SEE TEMPS BEING EVEN A HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MAY NEED TO BUMP UP HIGHS EVEN MORE
FOR SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OVER OUR REGION MOVING EASTWARD TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A POOR SURFACE REFLECTION OF LOW PRESSURE WITH
ELONGATED TROUGHING/SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE EAST
OF OUR REGION. THE MODELS DO SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...CHANCES OF ANY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE LOW FOR OUR CWA
WITH LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION OF ANY LIFTING FORCE FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN AND
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHILE
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE
DRY ALSO AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A LARGE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA BUILDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE AIR WITH THIS LOOKS PRETTY COOL AND MAY HAVE TO LOWER
THE HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY 40S FOR HIGHS FOR
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241745 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...REST OF TODAY

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLOWLY INCREASING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S
WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR GROUND FOG NEAR KABR
EARLY THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 240824
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

RATHER UNEVENTFUL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT
TO THE WEST...WEST/NORTHWEST ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MIXED DOWN WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15MPH WITH
GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S...BUT THATS THE WORST OF IT. EFFICIENT
MIXING TODAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS SOME 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION...SO READINGS WILL STILL BE AROUND
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION FOR
SUNDAY...THOUGH SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT MIXING
POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY


THE PERIOD OPENS WITH A BROAD SFC LOW OVER THE PLAINS. THE UPPER
LOW THAT FOLLOWS THIS FEATURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. MODELS ARE KEEPING THE
BULK OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON THIS RUN. STUCK WITH
MODEL BLEND FOR CONSISTENCY BUT IF THE TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE
BACKING OFF EVEN FURTHER ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO JUST
BELOW AVERAGE WITH THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SFC LOW MOVING IN ON WED AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TEMPS
WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE EXTENDED.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 240525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 240134 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
834 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR TNT. QUITE A LOT OF
CIRRUS IS STREAMING INTO THE REGION SO UPPED SKY COVER A NOTCH.
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY OFFSET LIGHTS WINDS AND PROVIDE FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL NOT
FIDDLE WITH LOWS FOR NOW IN CASE A PERIOD OF LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS
OCCURS LATE TNT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 232311 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
611 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 232048
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231750 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231750 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231525 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...AFFECTING KATY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 15Z...AFFECTING KATY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME FOG FORMED EARLY THANKS TO RECENT RAIN...HOWEVER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST WIND IS INHIBITING EXPANSION...SO WHAT FORMED WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM AND A SECOND THAT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
BE FOCUSED ON FIRE WEATHER. MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 30S...THOUGH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE
BIT STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...WITH
MIXED DOWN WINDS IN THE TEENS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
SATURDAY...SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD CLOSER TO CLIMO WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS
MONDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL QUICKLY GET
PUSHED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH POST FRONTAL PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

WILL SEE ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. COOLER AIR THEN MOVES
IN...WITH HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BACK AROUND NORMAL
VALUES.










&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN
THE EAST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230530 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN
THE EAST MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LATE NIGHT FOG OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230145 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...WINDS GOING LIGHT...SKIES CLEARING...AND LITTLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TNT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230145 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
845 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING SOMEWHAT HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
CWA...WINDS GOING LIGHT...SKIES CLEARING...AND LITTLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION EXPECTED...HAVE DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST FOR LATE TNT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY FOR NOW. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 222315 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
615 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
AS WINDS SLACKEN AND SKIES CLEAR SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE...ESPECIALLY AT KATY/KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 222025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING SOME VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO ABR AND ATY THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND
TO THE WEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER THEY ARE
TOO SPORADIC TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THE BACK END OF THIS BAND
OF PCPN SHOULD BE LOCATED ALONG I-29 BY 0Z...AND EAST OF THE CWA
BY 3Z. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION WILL COOL OFF MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. EVEN WITH THE COOLING TEMPS...DECENT
MIXING WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT TO COME THROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OUT WEST TO BEGIN
THE LONG TERM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTH AND INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S. WITH WAA ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SUNSHINE...MAY HAVE
TO RAISE SUNDAY`S HIGHS A LITTLE. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY/WINDY ON SUNDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW A SURFACE COOL FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL COOL DOWN INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN. MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
50S. THERE COULD BE SOME UPPER 40S IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
ALSO...WHEN THE COOL FRONT COMES THROUGH...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING SOME VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO ABR AND ATY THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND
TO THE WEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221730 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 83 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z. CLEARING SKIES
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING SOME VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO ABR AND ATY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221730 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 83 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z. CLEARING SKIES
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGING OVER THE REGION WILL
BRING SOME VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO ABR AND ATY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN. OTHERWISE...THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE WEST BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES EAST...THE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 221541
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1041 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 83 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z. CLEARING SKIES
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXITING TO THE EAST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221541
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1041 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 83 AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS BAND OF PCPN WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE I-29 CORRIDOR AFTER 19Z. CLEARING SKIES
AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXITING TO THE EAST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 221123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD DRY
LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXITING TO THE EAST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220820
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IS CONFINED TO NORTH
DAKOTA...AND IS LIKELY STRUGGLING WITH A SUBSTANTIAL SUB CLOUD
DRY LAYER. THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED J/KG...WILL ALSO PROCEED FASTER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO
THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY. THUS...WHILE WE
HAVE SEEN AN ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKE OR TWO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WILL STICK TO RAIN SHOWERS WITH PASSAGE OF THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT JET.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS RANGE FROM +17 TO +20C EARLY
THIS AM...BUT WEAK COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE
TROF. SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS BEFORE
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...SO HIGHS COULD TOP 70 IN THE EAST. WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROF...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK COLD ADVECTION/EFFICIENT MIXING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ABNORMALLY WARM DAY FRIDAY.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AHEAD OF A WESTERN TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON MONDAY...EXITING TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A DRY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. DIFFERENCES THEN BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS WITH THE
ECMWF SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING LOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS HAS IT TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE...THE GFS IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH DRIER. SUPERBLEND POPS
ARE IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...AND HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO
THEM. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS.

THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. A RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.











&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE TERMINALS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 220524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER THE
RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO THE
SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY MORNING
HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE TERMINALS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER THE
RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO THE
SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY MORNING
HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE TERMINALS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 220113 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
813 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON TIMING OF PCPN LATE TNT...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS FINE WITH LLJ KEEPING TEMPS UP...WAY UP FROM WHAT
WOULD BE NORMAL. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO
THE SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY
MORNING HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 212314 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
614 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO
THE SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY
MORNING HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-
     MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN










000
FXUS63 KABR 212314 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
614 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CROSSING WESTERN
WYOMING...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER
40S/LOWER 50S BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK MU-CAPE
VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG WHICH COULD CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS AGREE WELL WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY OF HAVING THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING SHOWERS. THUS HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS DROPPING
FROM OVER AN INCH...TO UNDER A HALF INCH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PATTERN UNTIL LATE
SUNDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. A SFC LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE UNDER
THE RIDGE..ESPECIALLY COUPLED WITH GOOD MIXING AT THE SFC DUE TO
THE SFC LOW. WITH H85 TEMPS TOPPING OUT NEAR +20C ON SUNDAY
MORNING HIGHS AT THE SFC WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AS TO JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIP MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN
ON MONDAY...THOUGH LATEST RUNS ARE ALL LEANING TOWARD THE DRY
SIDE. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND POPS FOR NOW DUE TO RUN TO RUN
INCONSISTENCY. EITHER WAY THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SHORT LIVED
WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER ALOFT ON TUESDAY. SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND AVERAGE..IN THE 50S..WITH AND BEHIND
THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL ONLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER BAD RIVER-
     MISSOURI COTEAU.

MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN










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