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000
FXUS63 KABR 282110
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGES REVOLVE AROUND STRENGTH OF WINDS TONIGHT...AS
WELL AS A LOW END PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEOLA TO HAYTI.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA TO ALMOST 60 DEGREES OVER THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. A COLD FRONT IS APPX TWO-THIRDS OF
THE WAY THROUGH THE CWA RIGHT NOW...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS NOW BEGINNING TO PICK UP STEAM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO AN IFR/MVFR LAYER OF STRATUS SCREAMING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THIS CWA.

TONIGHT...AS A SUBTLE NW FLOW MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION...IT MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT TO
INDUCE A FEW HOURS OF SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE CWA /SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES...BUT NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
ACTIVATE ICE/. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE CENTERS ACROSS THE
PRAIRIE COTEAU EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA WHERE MODELS PROG THE
DEEPEST LAYER OF SATURATED/NEAR SATURATED STRATUS CLOUDS TO BE
OVERNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE THIS COVERED NOW...INCLUDING SOME SPOTTY
0.01 INCH OF ICE ACCUM IN THE ICE ACCUM GRIDS. ALSO...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE CORRIDOR OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST INTO NE/IA/MN...SO COLLABORATED AN EXTENSION OF THE WIND
ADVISORY OVER TO THE SODAK/MN BORDER THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. THE PRESSURE TENDENCY PROG SHOWS
INCREASING VALUES OF RISING PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. THAT AND LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OFF THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY LAYER
MAY NOT DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THESE STRONGER
MIXED LAYER WINDS TO TRANSLATE ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE GROUND AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY -> FRIDAY NIGHT...FOR THE TIME BEING THESE FORECAST
PERIODS ARE DRY...WITH COLD AIR KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN CLOSER
TO CLIMO NORMAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WAA TRIES TO
RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE CWA FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE TABLE FOR A MULTIPLE
DAY-LONG PERIOD OF COLD.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WHILE ARCTIC AIR WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED EAST OF THE
REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND DICTATE CONDITIONS THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...DESPITE THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR SITUATED
MAINLY TO THE EAST. MODELS FEATURE A CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
SATURDAY...THANKS TO POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF A JET EXIT
REGION. WITH ARCTIC AIR DROPPING IN UNDERNEATH THE
CLIPPER...PROFILES SHOW A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FOR A FEW
HOURS. A 1040MB HIGH MOVES IN SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW A
LAYER OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS INTO THE CWA AS WELL. PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THIS STRATUS
LAYER...AND BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT FROM
TAFS. MOST LIKELY TERMINAL IMPACTED WOULD BE KABR/KATY BETWEEN
03Z AND 09Z HOWEVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR BUFFALO-
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CODINGTON-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-FAULK-HAND-SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281723 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...

AFTER PERUSING THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT THIS MORNING...OPTED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEEMS THAT REGION STANDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING 30 MPH OR HIGHER SUSTAINED
WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMEST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
LL CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CENTRAL SODAK SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FAIRLY EASILY. IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS STILL HAS SOME LOCALES ALONG
THE FAR NERN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FOG/HAZE VISIBILITY CONDITION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS DOES ITS BEST TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UPDATES/ADVISORY ARE OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.








&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW A
LAYER OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS INTO THE CWA AS WELL. PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THIS STRATUS
LAYER...AND BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT FROM
TAFS. MOST LIKELY TERMINAL IMPACTED WOULD BE KABR/KATY BETWEEN
03Z AND 09Z HOWEVER.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281723 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

18Z TAF DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW...

AFTER PERUSING THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT THIS MORNING...OPTED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEEMS THAT REGION STANDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING 30 MPH OR HIGHER SUSTAINED
WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMEST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
LL CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CENTRAL SODAK SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FAIRLY EASILY. IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS STILL HAS SOME LOCALES ALONG
THE FAR NERN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FOG/HAZE VISIBILITY CONDITION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS DOES ITS BEST TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UPDATES/ADVISORY ARE OUT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.








&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY...NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DRAW A
LAYER OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS INTO THE CWA AS WELL. PROFILES ARE
MARGINAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OUT OF THIS STRATUS
LAYER...AND BECAUSE OF LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE OPTED TO OMIT FROM
TAFS. MOST LIKELY TERMINAL IMPACTED WOULD BE KABR/KATY BETWEEN
03Z AND 09Z HOWEVER.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281645 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER PERUSING THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT THIS MORNING...OPTED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEEMS THAT REGION STANDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING 30 MPH OR HIGHER SUSTAINED
WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMEST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
LL CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CENTRAL SODAK SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FAIRLY EASILY. IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS STILL HAS SOME LOCALES ALONG
THE FAR NERN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FOG/HAZE VISIBILITY CONDITION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS DOES ITS BEST TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UPDATES/ADVISORY ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THESE CIGS DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281645 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER PERUSING THE LATEST MODEL OUTPUT THIS MORNING...OPTED TO
HOIST A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEEMS THAT REGION STANDS THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF EXPERIENCING 30 MPH OR HIGHER SUSTAINED
WINDS AND/OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER.

NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WARMEST AIR
RESIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...AND PRIOR TO ONSET OF
LL CAA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...CENTRAL SODAK SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM
INTO THE 50S FAIRLY EASILY. IN THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN CWA...HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS STILL HAS SOME LOCALES ALONG
THE FAR NERN AND ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA EXPERIENCING LIGHT
FOG/HAZE VISIBILITY CONDITION...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FILTERED SUNSHINE THROUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS DOES ITS BEST TO MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
UPDATES/ADVISORY ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THESE CIGS DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-POTTER-WALWORTH.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT FOR HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-
     STANLEY-SULLY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
528 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING. THESE CIGS DO NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 KT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280924
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS
IN THE EAST...EXPECT SOME IFR/MVFR FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AS THE LOW LEVEL RH
INCREASES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280924
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG
AND STRATUS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS MORNING.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S TODAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION AND A NORTHWEST MIXING WIND
DEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
PEAK SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN NORMAL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN
TAKES OVER. WHEN THE REGION COMES UNDER THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY. THEY WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERING ON WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE TIMING DOES SEEM A LITTLE OFF
HOWEVER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
CERTAINLY HIT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...IT IS NOT LOOKING
WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT...SOMETHING TO MONITOR TODAY HOWEVER.

TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LAYER JUST UNDER 1
KM DEEP...AND PERHAPS THERE COULD BE AN ARGUMENT FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW OF LIGHT DRIZZLE PRECEDING THE COLD AIR. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE BACK IN THE COLD AIR
RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY...AND RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL AGAIN BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE STRONGEST
OF THESE WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH
WILL THEN BEGIN A PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH THE NORTHERNMOST REACH OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH IT POSSIBLY REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NORTH DAKOTA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BECOMES DOMINANT UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL BE COMMON ON SATURDAY...THEN
THE COOLER AIR SETTLES IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL SEE WEAK WAA DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS
IN THE EAST...EXPECT SOME IFR/MVFR FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AS THE LOW LEVEL RH
INCREASES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280545 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DARKENING SPOTS IN THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING ...POSSIBLY FOG. THUS...ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG. STRATUS
DECK ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA MAY ALSO BACK WESTWARD SOME
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS
IN THE EAST...EXPECT SOME IFR/MVFR FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP
AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE MOVING IN AS THE LOW LEVEL RH
INCREASES.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280310 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DARKENING SPOTS IN THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
...POSSIBLY FOG. THUS...ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG. STRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA MAY ALSO BACK WESTWARD SOME TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
THE EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280310 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DARKENING SPOTS IN THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
...POSSIBLY FOG. THUS...ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG. STRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA MAY ALSO BACK WESTWARD SOME TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
THE EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280310 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
910 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE SHOWING SOME DARKENING SPOTS IN THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING
...POSSIBLY FOG. THUS...ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG. STRATUS DECK
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA MAY ALSO BACK WESTWARD SOME TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER SOME. REST OF FORECAST LOOKED GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
THE EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS OUT WEST MOVES SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AND BECOME NORTHWEST AS THE
TROUGH MOVES BY. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN
THE EAST...EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM AT ABR AND ATY TONIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY MOVING BACK INTO ATY
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 272026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
226 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KMBG AND KPIR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER KABR AND ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF FG/BR AND
LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT
KATY WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WILL FORECAST
LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN REGARDS TO ALL
THIS HAPPENING...AND IF SO...THE LONGEVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER KABR...LOWER CIGS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BR QUITE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 272026
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
226 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...BUT
IS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SO CLEARING IN THAT AREA IS POSSIBLE. A WEAK
TROF FORMS OVER THE MO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS...THOUGH
RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR IN PLACE MAY RESULT IN SPOTTY FOG
FORMATION TOWARDS MORNING. NOT VERY CONFIDENT SO WILL OMIT FROM
FORECAST FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...HOWEVER AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST IT WILL DRAW COLDER AIR
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION WILL HELP MIX +4 TO
+7C AIR TO THE SURFACE SO HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S STILL
LOOKS GOOD. PROFILES SUGGEST THE STRATUS LAYER WILL BACK OVER THE
CWA AS WELL. SATURATION ONLY EXTENDS TO 4 TO 5KFT...SO NOT QUITE
THICK ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE MENTION THOUGH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY...MODERATING TEMPERATURES DESPITE H925 READINGS
FALLING TO -2 TO -12C. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS MORNING
FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST MILD DAY AS MODELS AGREE NOW THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN
COLDER AIR FOR SATURDAY. ON FRIDAY THOUGH...PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS FAIRLY TIGHT SO HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE SUPERBLEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EXTENDED
PERIOD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH THE ONLY CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE
TIME BEING HAPPENING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING IN.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KMBG AND KPIR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER KABR AND ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF FG/BR AND
LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT
KATY WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WILL FORECAST
LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN REGARDS TO ALL
THIS HAPPENING...AND IF SO...THE LONGEVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER KABR...LOWER CIGS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BR QUITE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271754 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND STRATUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS WELL...SO LOWERED PROSPECTIVE HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR
MINNESOTA COUNTIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KMBG AND KPIR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER KABR AND ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF FG/BR AND
LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT
KATY WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WILL FORECAST
LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN REGARDS TO ALL
THIS HAPPENING...AND IF SO...THE LONGEVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER KABR...LOWER CIGS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BR QUITE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271754 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1154 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND STRATUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS WELL...SO LOWERED PROSPECTIVE HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR
MINNESOTA COUNTIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KMBG AND KPIR THROUGH
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. FURTHER EAST OVER KABR AND ESPECIALLY
KATY...WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOOKING AT POSSIBILITY OF FG/BR AND
LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO BE AT
KATY WHERE LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT TOO FAR AWAY. WILL FORECAST
LOWER CIGS AND VSBY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL IN REGARDS TO ALL
THIS HAPPENING...AND IF SO...THE LONGEVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. OVER KABR...LOWER CIGS LESS LIKELY TONIGHT...BUT BR QUITE
POSSIBLE AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN TAFS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271655 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1055 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND STRATUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS WELL...SO LOWERED PROSPECTIVE HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR
MINNESOTA COUNTIES.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ROVING AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AROUND KATY AND EVEN KABR. HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. KMBG/KPIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR ALL DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 271655 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1055 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG EAST OF THE SISSETON HILLS INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND STRATUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS WELL...SO LOWERED PROSPECTIVE HIGHS INTO THE 30S FOR
MINNESOTA COUNTIES.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ROVING AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AROUND KATY AND EVEN KABR. HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. KMBG/KPIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR ALL DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271213 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
613 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ROVING AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AROUND KATY AND EVEN KABR. HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. KMBG/KPIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR ALL DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271213 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
613 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

ROVING AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AROUND KATY AND EVEN KABR. HOWEVER THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD
FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. KMBG/KPIR ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR ALL DAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 270938
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL RH...STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR STRATUS CEILINGS AT ABR AND ATY. EXPECT
MOST OF TUESDAY TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 270938
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. GIVEN MONDAYS SNOW MELT...AND LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP FURTHER WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND THEREFORE PERSISTED WITH THE INHERITED FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM MONDAY
AFTERNOON SUGGESTS ALMOST ALL SNOW COVER HAS DIMINISHED /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LEOLA HILLS AND SISSETON HILLS/. THIS
FACT...COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING AN APPROACHING
TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS WARM AS
MONDAY...OR EVEN WARMER IN SOME AREAS...DESPITE A MORE LIMITED
MIXING PROFILE.

THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
MODELS SUGGEST THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THIS CWA INITIALLY. THE AREA MAY SEE
SOME LIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION SNOWFALL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE UNDER THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL DECREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SIDES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
IT APPEARS THAT IN GENERAL THE SAME MID LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGE
WEST AND TROF EAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...BUT WITH SOME
IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BIT
STRONGER TROF TAKING SHAPE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...WITH A BETTER
LIKELIHOOD THAT ARCTIC AIR WILL AGAIN PLUNGE SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF WAS THE FIRST TO CATCH ONTO THIS. THE GFS
NOW PRETTY MUCH AGREES. SO THE PERIOD STARTS OFF RELATIVELY
MILD...BUT THEN BY WEEKEND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RULE
AGAIN. FOR NOW CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK
LOW...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL RH...STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR STRATUS CEILINGS AT ABR AND ATY. EXPECT
MOST OF TUESDAY TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 270546 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL RH...STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR STRATUS CEILINGS AT ABR AND ATY. EXPECT
MOST OF TUESDAY TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 270546 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND GOOD LOW
LEVEL RH...STILL EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME IFR STRATUS CEILINGS AT ABR AND ATY. EXPECT
MOST OF TUESDAY TO BE VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 270328 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
928 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS TONIGHT...EXPECT
FOG TO FORM AT ALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...EXPECT STRATUS CEILINGS TO FORM
MAINLY EAST IN THE REGION. THE CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IFR. THE FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EVENTUAL VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 270328 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
928 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM YET TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS TONIGHT...EXPECT
FOG TO FORM AT ALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...EXPECT STRATUS CEILINGS TO FORM
MAINLY EAST IN THE REGION. THE CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IFR. THE FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EVENTUAL VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 262356 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
556 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS TONIGHT...EXPECT
FOG TO FORM AT ALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...EXPECT STRATUS CEILINGS TO FORM
MAINLY EAST IN THE REGION. THE CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IFR. THE FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EVENTUAL VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 262356 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
556 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH DEW POINTS TONIGHT...EXPECT
FOG TO FORM AT ALL LOCATIONS. ALSO...EXPECT STRATUS CEILINGS TO FORM
MAINLY EAST IN THE REGION. THE CEILINGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IFR. THE FOG AND STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY MORNING
WITH EVENTUAL VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262049
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
249 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SKC
OR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z...BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME
BR MENTION IN TAFS WITH AROUND 3SM VSBY...BUT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
LOWER VSBY. WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262049
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
249 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF MELTING/EVAPORATION AND THE WET SOILS WE
HAVE FROM THE JAMES VALLEY EAST...EXPECT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WE SHOULD GET SOME FOG TONIGHT. H925 WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO VALLEY EARLY...BECOMING CWA WIDE BY
LATE MORNING. STABLE FLOW WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT
ANY FOG...WHICH IS THE CAVEAT TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. WARM AIR REMAINS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MIGHT SEE SOME ADDITIONAL FOG AS A SURFACE TROF SITS OVER THE CWA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
WE WILL SEE EFFICIENT MIXING SO ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
DESPITE READINGS FALLING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES
SUPPORT EITHER DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SNOW...DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF A
STRATUS LAYER THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CANADA/NORTH DAKOTA
LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS DETERMINING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR MOVING IN. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE
AIR MASS WILL BE A BIT COLDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING BUT
THE BIGGER QUESTION IS CONCERNING THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE SHOWING
A POTENTIAL SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN...BUT DIFFER IN STRENGTH
AND TIMING A BIT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT
MODIFICATIONS. ONLY TIME PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING IS FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE EC
AND GEM SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THIS TIME WITH
PERHAPS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. 12Z GFS SHOWS A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WITH LINGERING PRECIP INTO
SATURDAY...BUT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SKC
OR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z...BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME
BR MENTION IN TAFS WITH AROUND 3SM VSBY...BUT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
LOWER VSBY. WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261747 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 40S ALREADY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SKC
OR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z...BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME
BR MENTION IN TAFS WITH AROUND 3SM VSBY...BUT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
LOWER VSBY. WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261747 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 40S ALREADY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH MOSTLY SKC
OR JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. AFTER 06Z...BR/FG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
REGION AS WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME
BR MENTION IN TAFS WITH AROUND 3SM VSBY...BUT COULD BE POTENTIALLY
LOWER VSBY. WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY/TMT
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261714 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1114 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 40S ALREADY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261714 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1114 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD A FEW DEGREES TO HIGHS EAST OF THE
JAMES VALLEY WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO THE 40S ALREADY.
NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ANTICIPATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261131 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
531 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 261131 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
531 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 260945
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 260945
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
345 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS OF 9Z...A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH WAA
ECHOES ON RADAR OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER
EXPECT VERY LITTLE...IF ANY PCPN IS REACHING THE GROUND AS THE
CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 9K FT AGL. WEB-CAMS ALSO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40...IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...TO THE UPPER 50S...WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG
WITH ADDED LLM FROM THE SNOW MELT TODAY COULD RESULT IN PATCHY
FOG. BOTH THE 21 AND 3Z SREF SHOW A HIGH PROBABILITY OF VISIBILITIES
BELOW 1 MILE BY 6Z. THAT SAID...THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS LESS
EXCITING FOR FOG.

POOR MIXING WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFS AND NAM ARE SHOWING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAN THE ECMWF/GEM DUE TO BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE CWA. USED THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A
SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE COOLER ADJMAV GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SAME BASIC OR MEAN PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE LONG TERM. THAT BEING A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...AND TROF IN THE EAST CONUS. HOWEVER
THERE IS ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS. THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
MUCH MORE BULLISH IN DRIVING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHUNT THIS COLD
AIR EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. HARD TO SAY FOR SURE WHICH MODELS
ARE CORRECT AS THEY HAVE BEEN STICKING TO THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS
THE PAST COUPLE OF CYCLES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE A TOUCH COOLER THAN
SUPERBLEND TO AT LEAST START THE TREND TOWARD COLDER. CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER IS LOW. AS FOR SNOW CHANCES...LOOKS LIKE MID LEVEL WAVES
BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PCPN DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TO START THE FORECAST...THEN LIKELY END BELOW NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND...PERHAPS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE
CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1129 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL THUS KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TWO SIMILAR
EVENTS EARLIER THIS JANUARY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIALLY ICY
COMMUTE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CAVEATS.
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES FEATURED RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 2 INCH GROUND TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST EVEN WAS 17F WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ITS 30F...WHICH MAY NOT BE
AS REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCATIONS FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LESSEN THE DURATION OF ANY ICE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SECOND IS THE SPOTTY NATURE. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS IMPACTED
BEFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RETURNS DEVELOP BEFORE ANY
FURTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN.

WE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COTEAU TONIGHT
FOR A FEW HOURS THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AND H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FULL SUN AND
H85/H925 READINGS A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO AND FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM...AND
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE FOG. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE TWO STRONGEST WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THOSE TWO TIME
PERIODS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN FOR THE LATE PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
THE MODELS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS AGO WERE SHOWING A DECENT COLD
SURGE...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BACK OFF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH
NOW IS SHOWING H85 TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 260529 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1129 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL THUS KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TWO SIMILAR
EVENTS EARLIER THIS JANUARY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIALLY ICY
COMMUTE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CAVEATS.
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES FEATURED RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 2 INCH GROUND TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST EVEN WAS 17F WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ITS 30F...WHICH MAY NOT BE
AS REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCATIONS FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LESSEN THE DURATION OF ANY ICE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SECOND IS THE SPOTTY NATURE. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS IMPACTED
BEFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RETURNS DEVELOP BEFORE ANY
FURTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN.

WE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COTEAU TONIGHT
FOR A FEW HOURS THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AND H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FULL SUN AND
H85/H925 READINGS A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO AND FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM...AND
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE FOG. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE TWO STRONGEST WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THOSE TWO TIME
PERIODS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN FOR THE LATE PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
THE MODELS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS AGO WERE SHOWING A DECENT COLD
SURGE...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BACK OFF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH
NOW IS SHOWING H85 TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT BEHIND A WEAK TROUGH
AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 260223 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH 00Z RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUING TO DOWNPLAY ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT DECIDED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING
RAIN. AT THIS TIME MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY CHANCE...BUT FELT
THAT WITH WEAK ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM ND WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NE EVEN THOUGH NOTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND YET.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL THUS KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TWO SIMILAR
EVENTS EARLIER THIS JANUARY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIALLY ICY
COMMUTE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CAVEATS.
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES FEATURED RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 2 INCH GROUND TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST EVEN WAS 17F WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ITS 30F...WHICH MAY NOT BE
AS REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCATIONS FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LESSEN THE DURATION OF ANY ICE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SECOND IS THE SPOTTY NATURE. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS IMPACTED
BEFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RETURNS DEVELOP BEFORE ANY
FURTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN.

WE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COTEAU TONIGHT
FOR A FEW HOURS THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AND H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FULL SUN AND
H85/H925 READINGS A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO AND FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM...AND
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE FOG. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE TWO STRONGEST WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THOSE TWO TIME
PERIODS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN FOR THE LATE PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
THE MODELS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS AGO WERE SHOWING A DECENT COLD
SURGE...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BACK OFF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH
NOW IS SHOWING H85 TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 260223 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
823 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
WITH 00Z RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS CONTINUING TO DOWNPLAY ANY
CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT DECIDED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING
RAIN. AT THIS TIME MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY CHANCE...BUT FELT
THAT WITH WEAK ECHOES MOVING DOWN FROM ND WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE FAR NE EVEN THOUGH NOTHING IS REACHING THE
GROUND YET.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL THUS KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TWO SIMILAR
EVENTS EARLIER THIS JANUARY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIALLY ICY
COMMUTE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CAVEATS.
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES FEATURED RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 2 INCH GROUND TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST EVEN WAS 17F WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ITS 30F...WHICH MAY NOT BE
AS REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCATIONS FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LESSEN THE DURATION OF ANY ICE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SECOND IS THE SPOTTY NATURE. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS IMPACTED
BEFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RETURNS DEVELOP BEFORE ANY
FURTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN.

WE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COTEAU TONIGHT
FOR A FEW HOURS THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AND H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FULL SUN AND
H85/H925 READINGS A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO AND FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM...AND
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE FOG. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE TWO STRONGEST WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THOSE TWO TIME
PERIODS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN FOR THE LATE PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
THE MODELS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS AGO WERE SHOWING A DECENT COLD
SURGE...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BACK OFF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH
NOW IS SHOWING H85 TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 252335 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
535 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER LATEST 21/22Z
RUNS OF HI-RES MODELS SHOW A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN
TONIGHT. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ON THE 23/00Z RUNS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO MAKE A FEW MODIFICATIONS.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR TERM FOCUS IS ON A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WILL THUS KEEP TEMPS
STEADY OR RISING OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE
LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. GIVEN
NAM PROFILES...EXPECT A PTYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. WITH TWO SIMILAR
EVENTS EARLIER THIS JANUARY...AM CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIALLY ICY
COMMUTE SOMEWHERE EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER AS THERE ARE SOME SUBSTANTIAL CAVEATS.
THE PREVIOUS OCCURRENCES FEATURED RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. THE 2 INCH GROUND TEMPERATURE FOR THE
FIRST EVEN WAS 17F WHILE THIS AFTERNOON ITS 30F...WHICH MAY NOT BE
AS REPRESENTATIVE OF LOCATIONS FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL SHOULD
LESSEN THE DURATION OF ANY ICE AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
SECOND IS THE SPOTTY NATURE. DUE TO THE LOCALIZED AREAS IMPACTED
BEFORE...WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL RETURNS DEVELOP BEFORE ANY
FURTHER ACTION CAN BE TAKEN.

WE WILL ALSO SEE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OVER THE COTEAU TONIGHT
FOR A FEW HOURS THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AND H925 WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP SUBSTANTIALLY WITH FULL SUN AND
H85/H925 READINGS A STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE CLIMO AND FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM...AND
WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS WE COULD SEE FOG. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THANKS TO WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT WEAK SYSTEM.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH ENTIRE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF PERIODS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH. THE TWO STRONGEST WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THOSE TWO TIME
PERIODS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THEN MOVES IN FOR THE LATE PART
OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW AS
THE MODELS AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS AGO WERE SHOWING A DECENT COLD
SURGE...BUT HAVE NOW BEGUN TO BACK OFF...ESPECIALLY THE GFS WHICH
NOW IS SHOWING H85 TEMPS 15 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ECMWF
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE...FOR NOW WILL STICK CLOSE TO
THE SUPERBLEND WHICH INDICATES HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
EAST TO THE 30S ACROSS THE WEST BOTH DAYS.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING WILL LIFT TO VFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








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