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000
FXUS63 KABR 132037
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
237 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS TWO FEATURES
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
OVER THE CWA. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA IS STILL LOCATED IN CENTRAL MONTANA
AT THIS TIME...AND IS LEADING TO A COUPLE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
IN EASTERN MONTANA (ONE ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ANOTHER TIED TO
THE SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT). CLOSER TO THE AREA...SEEING
PRECIPITATION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS DUE TO THE
INITIAL AREA OF MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
WEBCAMS SHOW THAT THE PRECIPITATION TOWARDS HAAKON/STANLEY
COUNTIES IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THAT AREA AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING...DON/T THINK THERE IS TOO MUCH
FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING AT THIS POINT. FARTHER NORTH...RAP
ANALYSIS SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WEAKENS WHICH
SHOULD TRANSITION THE PRECIP TO SNOW THE FARTHER NORTH YOU HEAD.
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING WITH THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAIRLY COLD OVER NORTHEAST SD...WHERE 2PM
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AT K8D3 TO 13 AT
KABR AND THEN 17 AT KMBG.

MODELS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TRACK/EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST SNOWFALL OVER N.C./N.E. SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND 12Z GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE TRACK OF THE STRONGEST FORCING A LITTLE
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IN SOME CASES ONLY BARELY BRUSHING
SOUTHWESTERN SD. WHILE THAT BEST FORCING SLIDES SOUTHWEST OF
MUCH OF THE AREA...STILL HAVE SOME SUPPORT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE WARM AIR ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FAIRLY STRONG LIFT WITH THE WAA (AND SEEN IN THE 700MB
OMEGA) WITH FAVORABLE 850-500MB Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE.
THEREFORE...EXPECT TO SEE A FAIRLY QUICK HITTING (4-7HR PERIOD)
AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH WITH THE MOST RECENT RUNS...SOME EVEN
SHOWING 12HR QPF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 0.6IN BETWEEN
MOBRIDGE/ABERDEEN. THAT POTENTIAL (LIKELY SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN WITH 750-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM) WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED THROUGH THE EVENING AND IF IT SETS UP AS SHOWN WITH SOME
OF THE HIGHER RES RUNS...MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO
WARNINGS. WITH THAT FARTHER NORTH TREND...EXPECT A LITTLE LESS
IMPACT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA...BUT STILL THINK THE POTENTIAL
FOR FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. THAT
NORTHWARD SHIFT SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BELOW 2 INCHES FROM
PIERRE AND SOUTHWEST (WHERE SOME AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN).

AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST...HAVE A GENERAL 3-6 INCHES WITH SNOW RATIOS
INCREASING FROM AROUND 10-1 AROUND THE MISSOURI RIVER TO THE
12-14 TO 1 RANGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NORTHEAST...A GOOD
PORTION OF THE LIFT IS AT OR ABOVE THE DGZ...WHICH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO MORE COLUMNS IN THE SNOW PROCESS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR
COMPACTING (ALONG WITH AGGREGATION AS THE SNOW FALLS THROUGH THE
CLOUD LAYER BELOW THE DGZ). THUS...DIDN/T WANT TO GO MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VALUES ...ALTHOUGH RATIOS COULD
BRIEFLY INCREASE IF THE FORCING ALIGNS A LITTLE LOWER AND IN THE
DGZ. WITH THE HIGHER QPF AND RATIOS...HAVE NEAR WARNING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS (5.5-6IN) OVER MCPHERSON/EDMUNDS/BROWN/MARSHALL/DAY
COUNTIES. WITH THE VARIABILITY IN THE MODEL RUNS TODAY...DIDN/T
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AT THIS POINT AND
THE EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE SNOW OCCURRING LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGHT THE IMPACTS WOULD BE LOWER
THAN IF IT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY.

ONE OTHER ITEM TO MENTION WILL BE THE GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS INITIALLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (GUSTS TO
25-30MPH). THAT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY/AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THAT IN THE FORECAST/WSW.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY (LARGELY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF/THIRD OF THE CWA). A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL
BE OVER THE AREA AND LIMIT THE WINDS AND IN TURN ANY BLOWING SNOW
CONCERNS. IN ADDITION...WITH THE WARM AIR OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE WARM FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH...HIGHS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LOW TEMP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY. AREA WILL STILL
BE IN A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS WITH 925MB TEMPS AROUND 0C TO +2C
AND A LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND. ALTHOUGH...WILL HAVE TO KEEP
IN MIND THE FRESH COAT OF SNOW THAT WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AS WELL...SO TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT WHICH VARIABLES HAVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON TEMPS IS
TRICKY.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR THIS EVENT AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. AGAIN...COULD BE DEALING WITH MIXED PRECIP
ISSUES AS THERE WILL BE WARM AIR IN PLACE.

YET ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BUT IS LOOKING RATHER
WEAK AT THIS POINT. SUPERBLEND GAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND THIS
LOOKS GOOD FOR THE TIME BEING. ONLY CHANGE HERE WAS TO REMOVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCES THEY INITIAL GAVE ON TUESDAY AND HELD THINGS OFF TO
TUESDAY NIGHT PER MODEL DATA.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD STAY ON THE MILD SIDE...ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY WHEN MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME VERY MILD AIR. 925MB TEMPS
AROUND +20C SHOW UP IN THE MODELS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. SUPERBLEND TEMPS HAVE READINGS AS WARM AS THE 60S OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CWA ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMBG AND EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO LOW END IFR AT ALL THE SITES AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES THROUGH. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR VISIBILITIES
FIRST OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
THEN AT KABR/KATY BETWEEN 02-08Z (COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH). EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST (VFR CONDITIONS WEST BY MID MORNING)...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
     004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SRF





000
FXUS63 KABR 131751 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SLIDES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOMES ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE AND WAA BECOMES CO-LOCATED FOR A TIME. 12Z RUNS DID
SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1-2C TEMPS ALOFT
AROUND PIERRE...SO HAVE SLID THE ICE ACCUMULATION AND FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINE AS IS (MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING
BETWEEN 2-6 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH IF CONFIDENCE GROWS ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND WILL OCCUR MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO A
WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMBG AND EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO LOW END IFR AT ALL THE SITES AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES THROUGH. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR VISIBILITIES
FIRST OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
THEN AT KABR/KATY BETWEEN 02-08Z (COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH). EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST (VFR CONDITIONS WEST BY MID MORNING)...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
     004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SRF





000
FXUS63 KABR 131751 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SLIDES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOMES ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE AND WAA BECOMES CO-LOCATED FOR A TIME. 12Z RUNS DID
SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1-2C TEMPS ALOFT
AROUND PIERRE...SO HAVE SLID THE ICE ACCUMULATION AND FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINE AS IS (MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING
BETWEEN 2-6 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH IF CONFIDENCE GROWS ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND WILL OCCUR MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO A
WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMBG AND EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO LOW END IFR AT ALL THE SITES AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES THROUGH. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR VISIBILITIES
FIRST OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
THEN AT KABR/KATY BETWEEN 02-08Z (COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH). EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST (VFR CONDITIONS WEST BY MID MORNING)...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
     004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SRF




000
FXUS63 KABR 131751 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS MORNING.
MODELS STILL STRUGGLING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
OCCUR AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SLIDES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOMES ENHANCED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THINK THIS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF OUR CWA...WHERE THE
SHORTWAVE AND WAA BECOMES CO-LOCATED FOR A TIME. 12Z RUNS DID
SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 1-2C TEMPS ALOFT
AROUND PIERRE...SO HAVE SLID THE ICE ACCUMULATION AND FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE...HAVE LEFT THE HEADLINE AS IS (MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING
BETWEEN 2-6 INCHES)...ALTHOUGH IF CONFIDENCE GROWS ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND WILL OCCUR MAY NEED TO UPGRADE A FEW COUNTIES TO A
WARNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STORM SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
SEE SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT KMBG AND EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO LOW END IFR AT ALL THE SITES AS THE
HEAVIEST SNOW MOVES THROUGH. COULD BRIEFLY SEE LIFR VISIBILITIES
FIRST OVER THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE EVENING AND
THEN AT KABR/KATY BETWEEN 02-08Z (COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH). EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
RAPIDLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
TO THE EAST (VFR CONDITIONS WEST BY MID MORNING)...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE EAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-
     004-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SRF
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SRF





000
FXUS63 KABR 131204 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOSTLY VFR SITUATION SHOULD FAVOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TONIGHT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED AS SNOW/FZRA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AT KPIR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-
     045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 131204 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOSTLY VFR SITUATION SHOULD FAVOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TONIGHT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED AS SNOW/FZRA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AT KPIR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-
     045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 131204 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTINESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE
BAD IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A MOSTLY VFR SITUATION SHOULD FAVOR LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE DAY
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY TONIGHT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS IS EXPECTED AS SNOW/FZRA SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AT KPIR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-
     045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 130957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE THIS MORNING...WITH READINGS DOWN TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE
EAST. AS THIS HIGH MIGRATES SOUTHEAST WE WILL SEE THE BAND OF WEAK
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW PUSH EAST BUT WEAKEN...AND TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.

THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON THE LOCALLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. TRACK HAS
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARDS WHICH ALLEVIATES SOME OF THE MIXED
PRECIPITATION ISSUES AS THE FINGER OF ABOVE FREEZING MID LEVEL AIR
WILL BE LIMITED TO JONES COUNTY WITHIN THE CWA. THAT SAID WE MAY
STILL HAVE SOME ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. LIFT IS VERY INTENSE AROUND 00-
06Z AT 25 TO 35 MICROBARS...SO ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALIZED EXCEEDANCE
OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL WITHIN THE CWA. MODELS ALL VARY IN
PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST AMOUNTS...WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GETTYSBURG/PIERRE/MILLER AREA.

AS FOR WINDS...A 20MB GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30MPH. A SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
LENDS TO LESS GUSTYNESS AND LOFTING SO VISIBILITY WILL ONLY BE BAD
IN THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVERNIGHT. DRIFTING MAY IMPACT TRAVEL
HOWEVER LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET QUITE MILD FOR SUNDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 925MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C. THAT MILD AIR STAYS WITH US
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER MOVING IN
FOR LATE MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A STRONG WEST CONUS
RIDGE AND EAST CONUS TROF.  HOWEVER THAT PATTERN STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN AS ENERGY COMES ON SHORE THE WEST COAST BY THE LATTER PERIODS
OF THE FORECAST. THAT BREAK DOWN OF THE PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END
OF NEXT WEEK AS MILDER AIR FLOWS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS EAST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FOR PCPN...ANOTHER CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT THE FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. KMBG/KPIR WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHILE
KABR AND KATY CONTEND WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONSET TIMING IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6
     AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>036-
     045-048-051.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR SDZ005>008-010-011-017>023-037.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
     FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 130534 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. KMBG/KPIR WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHILE
KABR AND KATY CONTEND WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONSET TIMING IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 130534 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. KMBG/KPIR WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHILE
KABR AND KATY CONTEND WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONSET TIMING IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 130534 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1134 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR AS A STORM SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. KMBG/KPIR WILL SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WHILE
KABR AND KATY CONTEND WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ONSET TIMING IS
VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT BUT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 122347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ON
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FZRA
IMPACTING KMBG AND KPIR WHILE KABR AND KATY WILL SEE MORE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 122347 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
547 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE IN AND BRING FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR IN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN ON
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH FZRA
IMPACTING KMBG AND KPIR WHILE KABR AND KATY WILL SEE MORE SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY
TO 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 122203
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDE P-TYPE AND PRECIP
AMOUNTS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S SUNNY EAST RIVER AND CLOUDY WEST RIVER. THE
MISSOURI RIVER SEEMS TO BE THE CLOUD/NO CLOUD DEMARCATION LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY AREAS HAVE BEEN EITHER FALLING OR
JUST HOLDING STEADY GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...BUT
FURTHER WEST WHERE IT`S CLOUDS...IT`S A BIT WARMER WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

WELL THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION IS ONSHORE NOW MOVING
THROUGH THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE BOTTOM LINE FROM THIS DISCUSSION
TODAY IS THAT THE SYSTEM IS RELATIVELY COMPACT/DYNAMIC FOR IT BEING
A SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM...BUT SHOULD PACK QUITE A PRECIP PUNCH AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THIS AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CROSS-SECTIONAL
ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM INDICATES THE NEEDLE IS PEGGING HIGH END NOW
FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND HAS MODERATE TO STRONG FORCING TO
BOOT...SHOWING UP PRIMARILY IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE REGION AS IT
WORKS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...THE WAA ZONE ON
THIS THING IS GOING TO BE SUPPORTING EITHER LIGHT SNOW OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF FORECAST ZONES /INCLUDING THE PIERRE AREA/ FROM
LATE TONIGHT UNTIL THE STRONGER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY ON
SATURDAY...WHEN P-TYPE SHOULD BECOME ALL SNOW. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS MIXED BAG OF PRECIP WHERE
GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ANYWHERE
FROM A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. THE
DEFORMATION ZONE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH...INCLUDING SOME AREAS WITH 1+ INCH/HOUR
SNOWFALL RATES. FOR NOW...THE BAR IS SET AT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF STORM
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION "WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE".
AND...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING WHEN IT
STARTS SNOWING...THE COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP CREATING SOME NEAR BLIZZARD TYPE
CONDITIONS/VISIBILITIES. TO ADDRESS THE SNOW AND VISBY CONCERNS
DECIDED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH THAT HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN PRAIRIE COTEAU OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UNDER THIS ARCTIC COLD 1040+ HPA SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD TAKE A TUMBLE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY. BUT THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP AND HIGHER WAA CLOUDS BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY OUT OR BEGIN STEADILY RISING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. SNOW SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. THANKFULLY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING WHICH
WILL LIMIT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. WHILE MODELS LACK AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGHER PCPN AMOUNTS...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO INCREASE POPS
SOME MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER...ALBEIT MUCH WEAKER SHORT WAVE COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL PCPN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES IN THE EASTERN CWA
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A FRESH SNOW PACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM NICELY ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH
THE GFS/ECWMF SUGGEST 925/850 MB TEMPS WARMING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KPIR
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. KPIR SHOULD CONTINUE SEEING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN SPREADING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS
COULD REACH KABR BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE ABOVE 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM
     MST/ SATURDAY FOR SDZ003-009-015-016-033>036-045-048-051.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
     NIGHT FOR MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 121746 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COMPLEX SET OF WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/WEEKEND. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A 1044 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. OVER OUR
CWA...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. READINGS TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST RIVER
AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS PUSH OF MILD AIR
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 MICROBARS
OF LIFT HAVE MY DOUBTS THIS WILL GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.

THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER...UP TO AROUND 8KFT...OF
SATURATION HOWEVER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C
THROUGHOUT THAT LAYER...CONCERNED THIS COULD GENERATE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AM FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. ALSO...WITH SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME FINGER DRIFTING BUT ON THE WHOLE WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTUAL SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD PRESENT AS ONLY A MINOR PROBLEM.

AND IT GETS MORE COMPLEX AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CRASHES
THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY. WHILE NOT UNDER A FAVORABLE JET
REGION...WE DO SEE QUITE STRONG DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT FLOW AT
300MB...AND THUS THE Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TRANSLATION...RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PROFILES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COLD ENOUGH WITH ICE INTRODUCTION
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE A FINGER OF MILD AIR AROUND 6KFT COULD CAUSE SOME
MELTING. NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THIS LAYER MAY NOT BE WARM/THICK
ENOUGH FOR A TOTAL TRANSFORMATION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
LAYER AROUND 20F THE END RESULT IS PROBABLY SLEET...SO WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL FOCUSED OVER THE
CWA. AT THIS TIME...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC WAVE YET TO HIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EXPECT THERE WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

OH...AND TO TOP IT OFF...WE WILL SEE VERY FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND DISLODGES SOME OF THE MILDER AIR
TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
DESPITE POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONG WAVE FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS WITH A TROF IN THE EAST...AND FAST FLOW IN BETWEEN. ONE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM...THEY DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK...AND THEREFORE WHERE THE PCPN WILL FALL.  GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THAT IS...THE MODEL BLEND FEATURING LOW POPS FOR THE CWA WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...OR AT LAST UNTIL SOME AGREEMENT ON THE STORM TRACK
ENTERS THE PICTURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KPIR
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. KPIR SHOULD CONTINUE SEEING MVFR CIGS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN SPREADING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO THE TERMINALS OF
KMBG AND KPIR AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS
COULD REACH KABR BY THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
ALSO INCREASE ABOVE 12 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FOR ALL
TERMINALS AFTER 12Z. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 121135 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
535 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COMPLEX SET OF WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/WEEKEND. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A 1044 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. OVER OUR
CWA...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. READINGS TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST RIVER
AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS PUSH OF MILD AIR
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 MICROBARS
OF LIFT HAVE MY DOUBTS THIS WILL GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.

THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER...UP TO AROUND 8KFT...OF
SATURATION HOWEVER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C
THROUGHOUT THAT LAYER...CONCERNED THIS COULD GENERATE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AM FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. ALSO...WITH SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME FINGER DRIFTING BUT ON THE WHOLE WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTUAL SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD PRESENT AS ONLY A MINOR PROBLEM.

AND IT GETS MORE COMPLEX AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CRASHES
THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY. WHILE NOT UNDER A FAVORABLE JET
REGION...WE DO SEE QUITE STRONG DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT FLOW AT
300MB...AND THUS THE Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TRANSLATION...RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PROFILES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COLD ENOUGH WITH ICE INTRODUCTION
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE A FINGER OF MILD AIR AROUND 6KFT COULD CAUSE SOME
MELTING. NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THIS LAYER MAY NOT BE WARM/THICK
ENOUGH FOR A TOTAL TRANSFORMATION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
LAYER AROUND 20F THE END RESULT IS PROBABLY SLEET...SO WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL FOCUSED OVER THE
CWA. AT THIS TIME...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC WAVE YET TO HIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EXPECT THERE WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

OH...AND TO TOP IT OFF...WE WILL SEE VERY FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND DISLODGES SOME OF THE MILDER AIR
TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
DESPITE POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONG WAVE FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS WITH A TROF IN THE EAST...AND FAST FLOW IN BETWEEN. ONE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM...THEY DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK...AND THEREFORE WHERE THE PCPN WILL FALL.  GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THAT IS...THE MODEL BLEND FEATURING LOW POPS FOR THE CWA WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...OR AT LAST UNTIL SOME AGREEMENT ON THE STORM TRACK
ENTERS THE PICTURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 121135 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
535 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COMPLEX SET OF WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/WEEKEND. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A 1044 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. OVER OUR
CWA...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. READINGS TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST RIVER
AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS PUSH OF MILD AIR
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 MICROBARS
OF LIFT HAVE MY DOUBTS THIS WILL GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.

THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER...UP TO AROUND 8KFT...OF
SATURATION HOWEVER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C
THROUGHOUT THAT LAYER...CONCERNED THIS COULD GENERATE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AM FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. ALSO...WITH SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME FINGER DRIFTING BUT ON THE WHOLE WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTUAL SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD PRESENT AS ONLY A MINOR PROBLEM.

AND IT GETS MORE COMPLEX AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CRASHES
THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY. WHILE NOT UNDER A FAVORABLE JET
REGION...WE DO SEE QUITE STRONG DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT FLOW AT
300MB...AND THUS THE Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TRANSLATION...RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PROFILES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COLD ENOUGH WITH ICE INTRODUCTION
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE A FINGER OF MILD AIR AROUND 6KFT COULD CAUSE SOME
MELTING. NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THIS LAYER MAY NOT BE WARM/THICK
ENOUGH FOR A TOTAL TRANSFORMATION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
LAYER AROUND 20F THE END RESULT IS PROBABLY SLEET...SO WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL FOCUSED OVER THE
CWA. AT THIS TIME...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC WAVE YET TO HIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EXPECT THERE WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

OH...AND TO TOP IT OFF...WE WILL SEE VERY FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND DISLODGES SOME OF THE MILDER AIR
TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
DESPITE POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONG WAVE FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS WITH A TROF IN THE EAST...AND FAST FLOW IN BETWEEN. ONE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM...THEY DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK...AND THEREFORE WHERE THE PCPN WILL FALL.  GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THAT IS...THE MODEL BLEND FEATURING LOW POPS FOR THE CWA WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...OR AT LAST UNTIL SOME AGREEMENT ON THE STORM TRACK
ENTERS THE PICTURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 121135 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
535 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COMPLEX SET OF WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/WEEKEND. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A 1044 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. OVER OUR
CWA...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. READINGS TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST RIVER
AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS PUSH OF MILD AIR
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 MICROBARS
OF LIFT HAVE MY DOUBTS THIS WILL GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.

THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER...UP TO AROUND 8KFT...OF
SATURATION HOWEVER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C
THROUGHOUT THAT LAYER...CONCERNED THIS COULD GENERATE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AM FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. ALSO...WITH SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME FINGER DRIFTING BUT ON THE WHOLE WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTUAL SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD PRESENT AS ONLY A MINOR PROBLEM.

AND IT GETS MORE COMPLEX AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CRASHES
THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY. WHILE NOT UNDER A FAVORABLE JET
REGION...WE DO SEE QUITE STRONG DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT FLOW AT
300MB...AND THUS THE Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TRANSLATION...RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PROFILES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COLD ENOUGH WITH ICE INTRODUCTION
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE A FINGER OF MILD AIR AROUND 6KFT COULD CAUSE SOME
MELTING. NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THIS LAYER MAY NOT BE WARM/THICK
ENOUGH FOR A TOTAL TRANSFORMATION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
LAYER AROUND 20F THE END RESULT IS PROBABLY SLEET...SO WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL FOCUSED OVER THE
CWA. AT THIS TIME...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC WAVE YET TO HIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EXPECT THERE WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

OH...AND TO TOP IT OFF...WE WILL SEE VERY FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND DISLODGES SOME OF THE MILDER AIR
TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
DESPITE POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONG WAVE FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS WITH A TROF IN THE EAST...AND FAST FLOW IN BETWEEN. ONE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM...THEY DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK...AND THEREFORE WHERE THE PCPN WILL FALL.  GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THAT IS...THE MODEL BLEND FEATURING LOW POPS FOR THE CWA WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...OR AT LAST UNTIL SOME AGREEMENT ON THE STORM TRACK
ENTERS THE PICTURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT OR DISSIPATE AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 120952
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
352 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

COMPLEX SET OF WEATHER CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK/WEEKEND. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING THE EFFECTS OF A 1044 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. OVER OUR
CWA...ANTICIPATE CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. READINGS TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET EAST OF
THE JAMES VALLEY...HOWEVER WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WEST RIVER
AS WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS. THIS PUSH OF MILD AIR
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW...BUT WITH ONLY 1 TO 2 MICROBARS
OF LIFT HAVE MY DOUBTS THIS WILL GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING.

THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER...UP TO AROUND 8KFT...OF
SATURATION HOWEVER...AND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN -10C
THROUGHOUT THAT LAYER...CONCERNED THIS COULD GENERATE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE SATURDAY AM FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. ALSO...WITH SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20KTS. THIS WILL
GENERATE SOME FINGER DRIFTING BUT ON THE WHOLE WITH VERY LITTLE
ACTUAL SNOW ON THE GROUND SHOULD PRESENT AS ONLY A MINOR PROBLEM.

AND IT GETS MORE COMPLEX AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE CRASHES
THE UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY. WHILE NOT UNDER A FAVORABLE JET
REGION...WE DO SEE QUITE STRONG DIVERGENT/DIFFLUENT FLOW AT
300MB...AND THUS THE Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TRANSLATION...RATHER RAPID
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PROFILES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ARE COLD ENOUGH WITH ICE INTRODUCTION
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WHERE A FINGER OF MILD AIR AROUND 6KFT COULD CAUSE SOME
MELTING. NAM PROFILES SUGGEST THIS LAYER MAY NOT BE WARM/THICK
ENOUGH FOR A TOTAL TRANSFORMATION...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE
LAYER AROUND 20F THE END RESULT IS PROBABLY SLEET...SO WILL JUST
BROADBRUSH THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WITH SNOW. SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS QPF BULLSEYES ARE ALL FOCUSED OVER THE
CWA. AT THIS TIME...WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC WAVE YET TO HIT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...EXPECT THERE WILL BE RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THUS WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES.

OH...AND TO TOP IT OFF...WE WILL SEE VERY FAVORABLE MIXING
CONDITIONS AS THE STORM DEPARTS AND DISLODGES SOME OF THE MILDER AIR
TO THE WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
DESPITE POTENTIALLY QUITE A BIT OF FRESH SNOW COVER.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

THE LONG WAVE FLOW FOR THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A
POSITIVE PHASE PNA PATTERN...FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE FAR WESTERN
CONUS WITH A TROF IN THE EAST...AND FAST FLOW IN BETWEEN. ONE SYSTEM
WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH
ANOTHER ONE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM...THEY DISAGREE ON THE
TRACK...AND THEREFORE WHERE THE PCPN WILL FALL.  GIVEN HOW FAR OUT
THAT IS...THE MODEL BLEND FEATURING LOW POPS FOR THE CWA WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW...OR AT LAST UNTIL SOME AGREEMENT ON THE STORM TRACK
ENTERS THE PICTURE. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY...THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CWA.  HOWEVER THAT SAID...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
FRI AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 120535 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1135 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ADJUSTED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
STRETCHING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO BISMARCK. NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THIS
BAND HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SNOW LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 120535 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1135 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ADJUSTED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
STRETCHING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO BISMARCK. NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THIS
BAND HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SNOW LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 120535 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1135 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ADJUSTED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
STRETCHING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO BISMARCK. NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THIS
BAND HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SNOW LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR
FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 112332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ADJUSTED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
STRETCHING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO BISMARCK. NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THIS
BAND HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SNOW LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KPIR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. KPIR WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 112332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ADJUSTED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
STRETCHING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO BISMARCK. NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THIS
BAND HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SNOW LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KPIR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. KPIR WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 112332 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
532 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ADJUSTED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR
AND MODEL TRENDS. CURRENTLY THERE IS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW STILL
STRETCHING FROM SIOUX FALLS TO BISMARCK. NORTHERN AREAS ALONG THIS
BAND HAVE BEGUN TO SEE SNOW LIGHTEN TO FLURRIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KPIR BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. KPIR WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 112146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 112146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 112146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KABR 111746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD BE RAMPING DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED UP 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM AROUND MCINTOSH TO
GETTYSBURG TO HURON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 111746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD BE RAMPING DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED UP 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM AROUND MCINTOSH TO
GETTYSBURG TO HURON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD




000
FXUS63 KABR 111746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD BE RAMPING DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED UP 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM AROUND MCINTOSH TO
GETTYSBURG TO HURON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 111600 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1000 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD BE RAMPING DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED UP 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM AROUND MCINTOSH TO
GETTYSBURG TO HURON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL TRACK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS WELL...ENDING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SNOW.
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 111130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL TRACK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS WELL...ENDING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SNOW.
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 111130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL TRACK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS WELL...ENDING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SNOW.
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 111130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
530 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THROUGH MUCH THE EVENING HOURS. AN AREA OF SNOW WILL TRACK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AS WELL...ENDING DURING THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MVFR VSBYS WILL BE COMMON WITH THE SNOW.
TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KPIR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 110924
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 110924
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 110924
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 110536 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 110536 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 110536 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR STRATUS OVER THE REGION WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR/IFR AS SNOW MOVES IN ON THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 102329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD MORNING AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN TO THE WEST THU MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 102329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD MORNING AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN TO THE WEST THU MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 102329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST TOWARD MORNING AND CIGS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
TO IFR. LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE IN TO THE WEST THU MORNING AND WILL
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THU EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 102138
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE THE DIVIDING
LINE BETWEEN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...IN THE WEST...TO MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH WEST SOME
TONIGHT. DEW POINTS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S...AND
LOWER 30S. THE ABUNDANCE OF LLM...IN COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY WINDS
COULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG AND PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WESTERN
CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING ONE TO TWO
INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM. AM EXPECTING SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW WHERE ICE COULD BE
LOST IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COULD CAUSE FREEZING
DRIZZLE ISSUES. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF HIGHS ON FRIDAY OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA. WITH A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD EASILY FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER
SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES A LIKELY EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDING THE CRASHING UPPER RIDGE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION...AND PROBABLY A FEW INCHES OF
SNOW...AS THE LOW LEVEL WAA MACHINE GETS GOING. A COLD AIRMASS IN
PLACE SATURDAY MORNING EVENTUALLY LOOKS TO GET SHOVED OUT BY WARMER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST...AND BY SUNDAY...A GOODLY AMOUNT OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE REGISTERING HIGH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE WARM AIR SHOULD BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT`S UNCLEAR WHETHER ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL WORK IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...THE THERMAL
ADVECTION PATTERN COULD GO A NUMBER OF WAYS...SO WILL DEFER TO
SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS...WHICH FOR NOW APPEARS TO BE SUGGESTING WARM
CONDITIONS HANG ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SOUTH DAKOTA /KABR AND KATY/ AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS CLOUDS. THE WHOLE AREA
OF CLOUDS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
/KPIR AND KMBG/. AS TIME GOES BY...KATY MAY END UP GETTING OUT OF
THE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY GET BACK
INTO THE SUB-VFR STUFF BY TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION IS BASICALLY DONE NOW. PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT FREEZING MIST OR DRIZZLE AT KABR/KATY...BUT BY AND
LARGE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
WHEN SNOW CHANCES START RAMPING BACK UP AT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





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