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000
FXUS63 KABR 050214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT ARE FAIRLY THIS
ACROSS THE EAST. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 050214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
HAVE OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT ARE FAIRLY THIS
ACROSS THE EAST. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 042326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 042326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 042326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 042326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS
ALONG THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND
CAPTURES THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 042021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOURTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND CAPTURES
THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 042021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOURTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND CAPTURES
THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 042021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOURTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND CAPTURES
THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 042021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

ALL MODELS ARE MOVING INTO CONSENSUS WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER PICTURE
FOR THIS CWA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CHALLENGE OVER THE SHORT
TERM IS PRECIP CHANCES.

A LLJ SETS UP WEST RIVER BY 6Z TONIGHT. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WEST OF THE MISSOURI AFTER 6Z. OTHERWISE THE CWA LOOKS DRY
TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NOURTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF THE BORDER. SOME OF THE ENERGY
MAY SNEAK INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD WED MORNING SO ADDED SOME POPS ALONG
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES INTO WED AFTERNOON.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SD ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME STRONGER STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.
THERE IS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH MODELS INDICATING AN H5 AND
H7 LOW AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT THU NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80S...MODERATED SLIGHTLY ON
THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ENERGY WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
PATTERN...DAMPENING THE RIDGE AT TIMES AND BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES
TO THE REGION. AS ALWAYS...MODELS ARE SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE FEATURES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM
IN THE LONG TERM DOES APPEAR TO INFLUENCE THE THE REGION SOMETIME IN
THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES OVERALL LOOK TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL. SUPERBLEND CAPTURES
THE PICTURE WELL...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 041728 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. REMOVED POPS
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 041728 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. REMOVED POPS
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. FOR THE MOST
PART...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...HOWEVER STORMS MAY NEAR THE VICINITY OF KPIR LATE IN THE
NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 041514 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1014 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. REMOVED POPS
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND/OR KMBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 041514 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1014 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. REMOVED POPS
UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN THE LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE OR WIND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND/OR KMBG.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 041136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND/OR KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 041136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR AND/OR KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 040904 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 040904 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040904 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 040904 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040900
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
400 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTHWARD VIA SOUTHERLY LLJ
AROUND 35 KNOTS IN CENTRAL SD. SOME LIFT AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS
RESULTING IN A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z AS THE LLJ WEAKENS BELOW 20
KNOTS. WHILE TODAY LOOKS DRY FROM 12-0Z...WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHC
POP ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. WILL ALSO INTRODUCE A LOW POP ALONG THE I-
29 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ARW MODELS...ALONG WITH THE NAM
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF INCREASING LLM.

LATER TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BYPASSING MOST OF THIS CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE BEST TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE THE LLJ
REDEVELOPS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO NEBRASKA
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
MONTANA AND WESTERN ND LATER TONIGHT COULD SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE SLOW TO CROSS THE REGION
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 12 ON
WEDNESDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY...BUT EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES COULD PRODUCE A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE BETTER LLM
AND THUS HIGHER CAPE VALUES. WITH EXCELLENT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE BEST LLM
WILL BE LOCATED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS TO MAKE NOTE OF
THIS MORNING. THE PERIOD STILL MAINTAINS AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LOOK AND FEEL WITH A DIRTY RIDGE ALOFT IN PLACE...AND SEVERAL CHUNKS
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH/OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD
BE A COUPLE FORECAST PERIODS THAT END UP SEEING PRETTY GOOD PRECIP
CHANCES. THE 00Z GSM CONGLOMERATE OF SOLUTIONS SEEMED TO BE
SUGGESTING ONE OF THESE POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENTS IS MOVING
THROUGH/FINISHING UP THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS STILL
MAINTAINING SEASONAL TO PERHAPS A TOSH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR
TEMPERATURES /WHEN FULLY MIXED OUT/ IN THE OUT PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 040551 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1251 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE
EAST REMAINS CLEAR. BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH NO STORMS IN
THE VICINITY AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...LOOK FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE
EAST REMAINS CLEAR. BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH NO STORMS IN
THE VICINITY AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 040214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE
EAST REMAINS CLEAR. BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH NO STORMS IN
THE VICINITY AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 040214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE
EAST REMAINS CLEAR. BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH NO STORMS IN
THE VICINITY AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 032326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 032326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 032326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 032326 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 032025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 032025
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 031725 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 031725 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 031524 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRESSURE
RESIDES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 031221 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
721 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 714 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TODAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE OVER MONTANA
DRIFTING IN THIS DIRECTION FROM WESTERN CONUS WILDFIRES. AT THIS
TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION OR
RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN
THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 030909
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 030909
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
409 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY AND FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WE WILL
SEE A BROAD ALBEIT WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL COME
IN FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY TUESDAY AM. DRY AIR WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA STABLE TUESDAY AS WELL...WITH MAINLY MOIST
ADIABATIC PROFILES AND WEAK SHEAR ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COUNTIES AS THE LEE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. DESPITE WEAKENING
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW...AND NO LOW LEVEL
JET...REMNANT CONVECTION/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CWA AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED UNORGANIZED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
TO REDEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE THE
EXTENDED WILL BE A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. IT ALSO STILL LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS
GOING TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR...AT LEAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 030621 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
121 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN WILDFIRES
CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY
DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME...THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY OBSCURATION/RESTRICTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE...SO WILL NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 030033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 030033
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
733 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VERY PLEASANT EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY...AND JUST A LIGHT BREEZE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT READINGS TO QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE 60S BY 10PM. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER COOL...WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60F.

KEEPING AN EYE ON AN AREA OF SMOKE ON VIS SATELLITE THIS EVENING
OVER MONTANA. WITH PREVAILING FLOW AT H7 AND H5 OUT THE THE
NORTHWEST..EXPECT THIS SMOKE TO GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE REGION
ON MONDAY...RESULTING IN THAT HAZY...MILKY WHITE APPEARANCE TO THE
SKY.

FOWLE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE





000
FXUS63 KABR 022344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 022344
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AGAIN ON MONDAY...WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SMOKE FROM WESTERN
WILDFIRES CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA. THIS SMOKE MAY DRIFT OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY DUE TO THE PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SFC VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMOKE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE





000
FXUS63 KABR 021934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THESE CONDITIONS LARGELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT EVEN...BUT WILL ALSO
BEGIN WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINS
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE SFC TROUGH ALSO MOVES
EAST. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE MODELS...MAINLY IN REGARDS
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ACTUAL
CLOSED LOW AT THE SFC MOVING THROUGH WHILE OTHERS FEATURE MORE OF A
BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR NOW HAVE
POPS HIGHEST ACROSS CENTRAL SD TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
CHANCES INCREASING FURTHER EAST INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE MAY NEED TO BE
REFINED BASED ON ANY CHANGES IN THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THE
EJECTING LOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A NUMBER OF WEAK SFC LOWS AND MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MEAN A WET AND ACTIVE EXTENDED. ON WEDNESDAY A 700
MB LOW WILL HELP TSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY LEE
SIDE TROUGHING WILL SET UP BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC EVEN AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH
THE UPPER RIDGE. FRIDAY HAS THE LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION BUT BY SATURDAY THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION BACK TO
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AND YET MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO HELP FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 021728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 021728 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 021557 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021557 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 021557 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS NOW IN
PLACE. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO WEATHER ELEMENTS FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 021224 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
724 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 721 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WINDS ARE SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND
A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR GOOD
VFR ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
GUSTINESS SUBSIDES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 021010
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
510 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

JUST A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE ONE WEAK THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPED
OVER FAULK CO AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK MID LEVEL
TROF MOVING THROUGH WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE...BUT AS CAPE
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND SHIFT SOUTH...NOT
EXPECTING THIS STORM WILL DO MUCH MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020848
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT IS HEADED DOWN OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS AM AHEAD OF THE
NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL
DROP 850MB READINGS DOWN TO +15C TO +20C. EARLY TUESDAY THE PATTERN
SHIFTS AWAY FROM NORTHWEST FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL INITIALLY GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER AFTERNOON PROFILES WEST RIVER ARE ALSO UNSTABLE
SO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS REGIME. 850MB
TEMPERATURES CHANGE LITTLE TUESDAY...SO HIGHS WILL BE A TAD LOWER
BASED ON MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROPAGATES EASTWARD OVER
THIS REGION WHILE BEING DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH/OVER THE RIDGE. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
OVER THIS CWA ACTUALLY LOOKS TO TAKE ON A TEMPORARY WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY...BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...PLACING THIS CWA BACK INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. LETTING THE SUPERBLEND HORSE RUN THIS MORNING...SO MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED HAS POPS MENTION...ALTHOUGH LIKELY THERE WILL BE
LOTS OF BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS DRAWING AIR OFF OF A COOLISH/DRY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN
IS IN FULL SWING DRAWING WARMER...MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 020536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM AT KATY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY EXPLICIT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH N/NWLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS
AFTER 16Z OR 17Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 020309
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE




000
FXUS63 KABR 020309
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1009 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING.
THE UPPER FORCING/ASCENT HAS BEEN TOO WEAK TO INITIATE STORMS THUS
FAR...AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK LLJ DOES DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...BUT ANY
MOISTURE CONVERGANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

OVERALL A DRY PATTERN SHAPING UP IN THE SHORT TERM WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES..ONCE WE GET PAST THIS EVENING. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS PROBABILITY OF STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
EVENING. CAMS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION
PLACEMENT THOUGH MOST DO GO AS FAR WEST AS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS..A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON WV IMAGERY IS MOVING
SOUTHEAST JUST CLIPPING THE CENTRAL SD/ND BORDER. THIS IS HELPING TO
GENERATE SOME ACCAS IN ND. THERE IS ALSO A BOUNDARY JUST EAST OF
MOBRIDGE..WITH NO SHEAR WEST OF THE LINE BUT AROUND 40 KTS EAST OF
THE LINE. A MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BISMARCK SOUTHEAST TO
ORTONVILLE. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AVENUE FOR ANY DISCRETE
CELL FORMATION LATER TODAY SINCE LCLS ARE AROUND 1500. THIS WOULD
ALSO MEAN MOST STORMS WOULD STAY NORTH AND EAST OF ABERDEEN WHICH
GELS WELL WITH THE 4000 J/KG BULLS-EYE OF CAPE ACROSS NORTHERN BROWN
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN MT MAY HELP
INCREASE FORCING AS WELL IF IT MANAGES TO ARRIVE IN A TIMELY MANNER.

KEPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH 3Z.
DID NOT MENTION T+ BUT IF AND WHEN ANYTHING DOES FIRE CHANCES OF IT
GOING SEVERE ARE GOOD SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE. WITH GOOD
SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD NOW SHOWS DECENT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THERMAL
PROGS...WHICH HIGHLIGHT A RELATIVELY COOLER REGIME COMPARED TO WHAT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING IN RECENT WEEKS.
SUPERBLEND REVEALS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
AND THIS SEEMS OK GIVEN MODELS 850 MB TEMPS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
FORECAST IS STILL PLASTERED WITH POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GRANTED...THE PATTERN DOES GET A BIT MORE ACTIVE BUT IT STILL
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT SINCE MODELS ARE NOT
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE REGION.
THERE MAY BE MORE OF A SFC HIGH INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REMOVAL OF POPS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTMS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE ON THIS OCCURRING IS WANING AS
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT TO INITIATE NEW
STORMS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE W/NWLY THIS
EVENING...BUT EXPECT THAT WINDS MAY SIMPLY BECOME MORE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE





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