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000
FXUS63 KABR 030547 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE
MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 030547 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE
MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 030547 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE
MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 030547 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND
SPREADING INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE
MOVEMENT MORE TO THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 030401 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE MOVEMENT MORE TO
THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 030401 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

ECHOES EXPANDING QUICKLY ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING AND SPREADING
INTO CENTRAL SD. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW A LITTLE MOVEMENT MORE TO
THE NORTH WITH THE BEST SNOWFALL. UPDATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS A LITTLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-
     045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 022353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 022353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 022353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 022353 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
553 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A STRONG AND FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING IN...WILL BRING SNOW TO ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/HEAVIEST SNOW FROM PIR TO ATY. ALONG WITH THE SNOW
WILL COME STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 TO 40 KNOTS BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES. MBG SHOULD ESCAPE MUCH OF THE WORST CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM
WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON TAKING
THE SNOW WITH IT. ALTHOUGH...BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 022122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 022122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WILL SEE WINDS SLACKEN OFF FOR A BIT THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FRONT WILL BE ELONGATED FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO A LOW TRACKING OUT OF COLORADO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN
TO AFFECT SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING...SPREADING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SNOW JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SNOW REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA AROUND SUNRISE. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
IT SETTING UP FROM JUST SOUTH OF PIERRE TO TRAVERSE COUNTY
MINNESOTA. THE NAM AND GEM ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BAND.
HAVE INDICATED THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THIS BAND WILL BE IN THE
WSW PRODUCT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY
HIGH...GENERALLY FROM ONE HALF INCH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO AROUND
4-5 INCHES IN THE BAND. THE BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WIND
SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WEST BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z...AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 12Z. THESE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH NEWLY FALLEN OR ONGOING
FALLING SNOW TO CREATE SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL CWA WHERE LESS SNOW IS
EXPECTED...AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END AND THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING COLDER AIR WITH IT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A RISE
OF ONLY 2-4 DEGREES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH THE
COLDER HIGH MOVING IN AND FRESH SNOW COVER...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE
REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
TIMING. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO LIKELY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER THE
EXTENT OF WARMING WILL DEPEND ON DEPTH AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW
COVER. DID NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EXPECTATION OF SNOW COVER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
     NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     018>023.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR SDZ005-
     006-010-017.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO NOON CST
     /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR SDZ033>037-045-048-051.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD








000
FXUS63 KABR 021809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1209 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...DELAYING POPS BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD








000
FXUS63 KABR 021809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1209 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...DELAYING POPS BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD









000
FXUS63 KABR 021809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1209 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...DELAYING POPS BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD









000
FXUS63 KABR 021809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1209 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...DELAYING POPS BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMBG.
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WITH A SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES. WHILE THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MID MORNING FOR
KPIR...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW ISSUES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT THROUGH
     TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD








000
FXUS63 KABR 021650 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1050 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. MADE A FEW
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE SNOW REACHING THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...DELAYING POPS BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OTHER THAN SOME IFR FOG AROUND KABR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER LATE TNT AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SNOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR/KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KABR 021122 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OTHER THAN SOME IFR FOG AROUND KABR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER LATE TNT AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SNOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 021122 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OTHER THAN SOME IFR FOG AROUND KABR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER LATE TNT AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SNOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 021122 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OTHER THAN SOME IFR FOG AROUND KABR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER LATE TNT AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SNOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 021122 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

OTHER THAN SOME IFR FOG AROUND KABR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING...THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS. HOWEVER LATE TNT AND TUESDAY WILL LIKELY SEE IFR
CONDITIONS AGAIN AS SNOW MOVES NORTH AND INTERACTS WITH INCREASING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR/KATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 021011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 021011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 021011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 021011
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS SET TO REALLY GET GOING OVER OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH. MODELS HAD
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION INDUCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THEY HAVE
BACKED OFF AND SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL BE TOO
DRY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW TWO SEPARATE
WAVES OF ENERGY INFLUENCING THE REGION...THE FIRST WORKING UP FROM
THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...SUPPORTED BY A 150+ KT JET STREAK...AND THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL FALL BETWEEN 06Z-12Z
TUESDAY...WHEN MODERATE TO STRONG 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS COUPLED
WITH 500 MB-700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS BEST FORCING APPEARS
AS THOUGH IT WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH ZONE AS
WELL. SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. MODELS ARE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CLEAR ON THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW
HOWEVER...THE NAM BEING THE FURTHEST NORTH AND THE ECMWF THE
FURTHEST SOUTH. THE FRONT THEN COMES PLOWING ACROSS THE REGION
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CWA...BEGINNING BY ABOUT 9Z IN THE PIERRE AREA AND REALLY CRANKING
UP IN THE WATERTOWN AREA AROUND MID MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF
FALLING SNOW AND/OR FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 OR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW VISIBILITY
ISSUES. PERSISTED WITH THE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. LATER SHIFTS
CAN GET ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS IN TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF
HEADLINES THIS AFTERNOON.

SNOWFALL QUICKLY ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND COLDER AIR AGAIN
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. COULD BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A MAINLY DRY MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES START OFF
BELOW NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND TREND TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY WEEKS END AS THE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION GETS
REPLACED BY AN AIR MASS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE MILDER AIR MAY STICK AROUND MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE NEXT
8 TO 14 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR SDZ017-
     018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020543 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020543 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 020543 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020543 AAD
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GOOD VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING. BY THE END OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD...SNOW CHANCES /AND IFR FLYING WEATHER/ REALLY START
RAMPING UP...ESPECIALLY AT KPIR AND KATY. HEADING INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...KPIR COULD BE SEEING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 020354 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
954 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 020354 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
954 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020354 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
954 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020354 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
954 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE BLIZZARD WATCH CODING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE AFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     SDZ017-018-033>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     SDZ019>023.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     MNZ046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 020332 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 020332 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
932 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE TONIGHT PERIOD AT THIS TIME. GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR FORECAST LOWS.

THE BIGGER CONCERN IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIGHT NOW. ALL THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THIS CWA LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME THAT STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 35
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE DEVELOPING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE QUICKLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEEING A WINDOW OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
APPX 6 TO 9 HOURS LONG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. INTERSTATE 90 WOULD BE
IMPACTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
THE WALL OF WIND AND SNOW WOULD BE TRANSLATING OVER TO THE
INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE GOING INTO EFFECT
FOR THIS REASON SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 020002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 020002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE MAINLY SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS. AND...THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME SUNSHINE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AROUND AS
WELL. RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST -SN/CLOUDS ARE ON THE
DECREASE...SO STARTING THE 00Z TAFS OFF WITH GOOD VFR /EXCEPT AT
KATY WHERE THERE COULD BE A FLURRY OR TWO AROUND FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR SO/...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 012131
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 012131
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CROSSING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING UPON
SUNSET.

DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. PWATS CLIMB CONSIDERABLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PEAKING IN THE EASTERN CWA AROUND FOUR TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE WAA. WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVER
DONE...WILL MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY...POSSIBLE REACHING
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREA. LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A
WIND HEADLINE.

THE BIGGEST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE 12Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GEM/NAM WERE THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING FROM KPIR TO KABR...TO KFAR. THE
ECMWF IS THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHEASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA RECEIVING THE MOST SNOW. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...FAVORED A NUDGE NORTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW BASED ON THE HI-RES ARW/NMM. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM MURDO...MILLER...WEBSTER...TO ORTONVILLE MN WILL HAVE
THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS EXCEEDING 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO OCCUR AFTER THE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH JUST A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY,,,THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN TRACKS ACROSS
ON SATURDAY. NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY AS THE GFS
TRACKS A CLIPPER NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE...WHILE THE ECMWF
DOES NOT. ALL IN ALL...THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE DRY
AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS WILL BE COMMON.
WAA THEN DEVELOPS AND LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A NICE WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE
FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 011724 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 011724 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1124 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 011127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
527 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND PERHAPS SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THAT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 010915
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 010915
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 010915
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 010915
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
315 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

ONE SURFACE TROUGH HAS EXITED THE CWA...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SCATTERED FLURRIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA TODAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER IN SOME AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR PROCEEDS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.

THE BIG QUESTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS HOW EVERYTHING SHAKES OUT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS A
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED JET STREAK OF 150+ KTS TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. AT 500 MB...THE INITIAL BAND OF
ENERGY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...QUICKLY INTERACTING WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE A BAND OF 700
MB FRONTOGENESIS SETS UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SO OVERALL...LOOKS LIKE PLENTY OF FORCING.
HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL SET UP. THE ECMWF/GFS KEEP MOST SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...WHEREAS THE GEM/NAM HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH
IN THE LATEST RUNS. TOOK THE MIDDLE GROUND FOR NOW...AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ABOUT PIERRE TO REDFIELD TO WHEATON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE AN INITIAL SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE PIERRE AREA
BEFORE IT TRANSITIONS TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...THE ADVECTION OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 0.5 KM
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
SO INTRODUCED THAT WORDING INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOCAL BSII IS
GENERATING VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 2. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN
END TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AND FOR THE MOST PART THE ENTIRE PERIOD LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COLD
TEMPERATURES TO START THE PERIOD. BUT THAT COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS
SHOULD GET SCOURED OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEEKS END AS A LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM BELOW TO
PERHAPS EVEN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 010543 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT OUT THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS POSSIBLY STILL A COUPLE
FLURRIES OUT OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. SAID FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COOLED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE/OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. NO PLANS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOUDS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THINGS AND KEEP THE MERCURY FROM TUMBLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 010543 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT OUT THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS POSSIBLY STILL A COUPLE
FLURRIES OUT OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. SAID FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COOLED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE/OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. NO PLANS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOUDS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THINGS AND KEEP THE MERCURY FROM TUMBLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 010543 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT OUT THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS POSSIBLY STILL A COUPLE
FLURRIES OUT OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. SAID FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COOLED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE/OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. NO PLANS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOUDS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THINGS AND KEEP THE MERCURY FROM TUMBLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 010543 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT OUT THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS POSSIBLY STILL A COUPLE
FLURRIES OUT OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. SAID FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COOLED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE/OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. NO PLANS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOUDS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THINGS AND KEEP THE MERCURY FROM TUMBLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. 2500-5000FT AGL CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW FLURRIES AROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 010336 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT OUT THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS POSSIBLY STILL A COUPLE
FLURRIES OUT OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. SAID FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COOLED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE/OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. NO PLANS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOUDS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THINGS AND KEEP THE MERCURY FROM TUMBLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 010336 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
936 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

QUIET NIGHT OUT THERE. RADAR SUGGESTS POSSIBLY STILL A COUPLE
FLURRIES OUT OVER THE PRAIRIE COTEAU WHERE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED. SAID FRONT IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY TRUDGE
EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE COOLED INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS
ARE STILL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE/OVERSPREAD THE CWA FROM THE WEST. NO PLANS TO ADJUST
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME AS THE CLOUDS WILL WORK TO INSULATE
THINGS AND KEEP THE MERCURY FROM TUMBLING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 010010 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
610 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 010010 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
610 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 010010 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
610 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 010010 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
610 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

OVERALL...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS.
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON HAS BASICALLY DESTABILIZED /FOR LACK OF
A BETTER WORD/ THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. PER THE 00Z KABR
SOUNDING...FAIRLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BEEN CREATED BY
TODAY`S WARMING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...A SUBTLE LITTLE LOW
PRESSURE FEATURE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FORCING
CREATED BY THE SURFACE TROF /COLD FRONT/ MOVING THROUGH...HAVE
CREATED POCKETS OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGHOUT THE CWA. FOR
NOW...HAVE IN SOME 3000FT AGL MVFR CIGS TEMPO`D WITH LIGHT SNOW AT
KABR AND KATY FOR A COUPLE HOURS AT THE START OF THE TAF VALID
PERIOD. LOSS OF SUNSHINE SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE
SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DISSIPATE. THERE`S ALSO AN AREA OF VFR STRATUS
ACROSS NW SODAK/SW NODAK MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. NOT
ALL THAT CONFIDENT THAT THIS STRATUS WILL HOLD TOGETHER...BUT FOR
NOW WILL INTRODUCE IT INTO THE KMBG TERMINAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT BY SUNDAY MORNING MORE 3000FT-6000FT AGL CIGS WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 282119
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 282119
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 282119
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY BISECTING THE REGION IS PRODUCING
WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH. SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SURFACE
TROUGH...MAINLY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA
LATER THIS EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE IS RATHER INSIGNIFICANT WITH
PWATS ONLY 0.15 INCHES AT BEST. HOWEVER WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION COULD
PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. ON MONDAY...STRONG WAA ALONG WITH DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PUSH INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE GFS...IS SUGGESTING LOW
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE. OTHER MODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF/GEM FOR WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT COULD
RESULT IN LIGHT SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TRACKING ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
ENERGY AROUND. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH PRECIPITATION OVER
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE TROUGH SLOWLY MEANDERS ITS WAY EASTWARD
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AFTER THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ON
TUESDAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WILL BE COMMON
ON TUESDAY...THEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL
THEN SEE WAA RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON
THURSDAY...AND IN THE 30S AND 40S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 281730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 281730 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1130 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281645 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK







000
FXUS63 KABR 281645 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1045 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AS OF 16Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED A FEW MILES WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS IN KD07 AND KPHP HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON THE
REGIONAL RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY NORTH OF I-94
IN NORTH DAKOTA. WITH A DRY MORNING SOUNDING AT KABR AND LIMITED
MOISTURE ADVECTION...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED FLURRIES
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 281113 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
513 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 281113 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
513 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 280936
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
AROUND 3500 TO 6000 FT MAY MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 280936
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
AROUND 3500 TO 6000 FT MAY MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE







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