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000
FXUS63 KABR 191758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191758 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1158 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW CIGS BELOW 1000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KABR AND KATY
THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...CIGS WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSER TO 500 FT OR BELOW AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATER TONIGHT. ONLY SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS IN CIG
HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. BR ALSO EXPECTED AT
THESE TWO SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VSBY EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY 2SM TO 6SM THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
CIGS WILL FALL BELOW 1SM. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VSBY ABOVE 1SM AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FURTHER WEST OVER KMBG AND KPIR...CIGS NOT A FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TONIGHT THOUGH...FG/BR A GOOD
POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN...WITH KPIR POSSIBLY GOING BELOW 1SM VSBY.
SEEMS CHANCES FOR FG/BR BETTER AT KPIR THAN KMBG SO HAVE NOT
LOWERED VSBY AS MUCH IN TAF FOR KMBG...BUT STILL HAVE A MENTION OF
BR NONETHELESS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191627 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE WEST
THIS MORNING. ALSO ADDED IN A FLURRY MENTION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS RADAR INDICATES A PATCH OF
FLURRIES/-FZDZ JUST SKIRTING THE ND/SD BORDER IN DICKEY COUNTY
RIGHT NOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 191125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KATY AND KABR.
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS IN FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW CLOUDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

STRATUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT INFLUENCE ON THE FORECAST
TODAY. FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY APPEARS TO BE WIDELY SPACE
ENOUGH THAT DIABATIC HEATING WILL MIX DOWN A WESTERLY COMPONENT.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE CLEARING LINE TO PUSH INTO THE JAMES VALLEY.
FARTHER EAST...WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A
FEW DEGREES AT LEAST DESPITE THE PERSISTENT OVERCAST SKIES.

A WEAK UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. NOT
MUCH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT AT LEAST THERE IS MOISTURE
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THUS...WENT MAINLY WITH
FLURRIES AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE...THOUGH WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN +1 AND +3C...COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LINCHPIN FOR HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE WHAT MEAGER SUN WE
CAN PULL OFF FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GEM AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS CLOSING THE LOW
OFF...BUT THE GEM AND GFS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING LESS
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A BAND THAT SITS OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...PRODUCING UPWARDS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THESE CONTINUED DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS...WILL STICK WITH SCHC/CHC POPS UNTIL A CLEARER SOLUTION
COMES INTO SIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON MONDAY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THAT AREA. MAY SEE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE SYSTEM PULLS FAR
ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO FINALLY BRING THE PRECIPITATION TO AN END.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY ON WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A SYSTEM THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
HINTING AT FOR THURSDAY. RIGHT NOW...THE GFS KEEPS THE MAIN AREA
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE STATE. HAVE
INTRODUCED A SMALL POP TO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA FOR
NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR THEN GETS DRAWN DOWN IN THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190536 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OFF AT KPIR/KMBG. AS A RESULT...MVFR
LIGHT FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AT KPIR...WHICH COULD SPIRAL INTO
IFR FOG BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A SIMILAR
SITUATION DEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING AT KMBG.

IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST
RAPID REFRESH MODEL SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR OFF AT KABR BY
10Z...PROVIDED THE CURRENT SPEED OF MOVEMENT TO THE CLOUDS DOESN`T
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. KABR COULD ALSO BE DEALING WITH SOME
MVFR LIGHT FOG FORMATION ONCE THE STRATUS CLOUDS CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190312 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
912 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 182341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 182341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CIGS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN APPX 800FT
AGL AND 1400FT AGL. BASED OFF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE LOOP...IT
APPEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALMOST TO
KPIR/KMBG...WITH THESE TWO TERMINALS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OFF WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAINTAIN A
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THESE TWO
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT FOR FOG FORMATION. IF THE WESTERN EDGE OF LOW
STRATUS WORKS AS FAR EAST AS THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH MODEL
SUGGESTS...KABR/KATY WOULD BE CLEARING OFF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE/ISOLD SNOW FLURRIES THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE EITHER PHENOMENA FLARES
BACK UP AGAIN.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182124
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 182124
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
324 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IS
PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. A REPORT FROM THE HIGHWAY PATROL...AS WELL AS DOT WEB-
CAMS SUGGEST THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IS NOT HAVING AN IMPACT OF ROAD
CONDITIONS. THUS NO HEADLINE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY 3Z WITH PCPN ENDING BY THEN. THAT
SAID...THE RAPID REFRESH AND THE NAM12 SUGGEST THE LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SCATTERED FLURRIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THUS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THIS CWA DRY AS MOST OF THE LLM AND
LIFT IS LOCATED IN NORTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY
NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MEAN PRECIP
STARTS OFF AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. IT WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
IN WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND CAA BEHIND THE LOW...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL BY TUE MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TUE AND WED MAY HELP PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD AS WE MOVE FORWARD. MODELS HAVE BEEN UNCERTAIN WITH
PLACEMENT OF THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD. 0Z RUNS HAD PRECIP MOVING UP INTO THE DAKOTAS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY BUT SUBSEQUENT 12Z RUNS ARE KEEPING ALL PRECIP SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR NOW STUCK WITH THE MODEL BLENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181727 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.




&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA UNTIL AROUND 21Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. VSBYS MAY OCCASIONALLY FALL TO IFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG
UNDER THE LOW CLOUD COVER.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS
MORNING WAS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
WEB-CAMS PLUS ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME ICE THIS MORNING.
WALWORTH COUNTY REPORTED NO ICY ROADS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181623 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS GOOD OVERALL.
CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST. THE BIGGEST ISSUE THIS
MORNING WAS THE FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES.
WEB-CAMS PLUS ROAD REPORTS SUGGEST THERE WAS SOME ICE THIS MORNING.
WALWORTH COUNTY REPORTED NO ICY ROADS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS FOR A POSSIBLE FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADLINE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 181123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST
ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE WILL SEE
SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. OTHERWISE THIS
WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY MAINLY THESE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES THOUGH THE DAY BUT
MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CIGS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...THEN AFFECTING THE ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR
LEVELS ACROSS THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBYS MAY
OCCASIONALLY FALL TO MVFR LEVELS DUE TO FOG UNDER THE LOW CLOUD
COVER.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180926
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
326 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PUSH. SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST ONLY A LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION IN WHICH WE
WILL SEE SATURATION/LIFT WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
OTHERWISE THIS WEAK UPPER TROFS PASSAGE WILL BE DOMINATED BY
MAINLY THESE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. KEPT MENTION OF FLURRIES
THOUGH THE DAY BUT MIGHT JUST AS WELL SEE A FEW VERY LIGHT
SPRINKLES.

LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO DOMINATE TEMPERATURES. THE WARM ADVECTION
PUSH WILL TAKE H925 TEMPERATURES FROM AROUND -10C THIS AM TO
AROUND +/-3C TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE EARLY PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
REACH THE WESTERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LOOKS TO
CLOSE OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN WHERE THE LOW CLOSES
OFF...AND THEREFORE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS
AND GEM SHOWING THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THESE
LARGE DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED TO STICK CLOSE TO THE SUPERBLEND
AND KEEP SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WHEN THE SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. THE
CURRENT GFS AND GEM SHOW RIGHT AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL FOR
MOST OF THE CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AROUND AN INCH ACROSS THE
WEST TO AROUND FOUR INCHES ACROSS THE EAST...FALLING OVER ABOUT A
48 HOUR PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY. THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY TIME PERIODS LOOK DRY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD...MAINLY
IN THE TEENS.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KMBG...LOWERING MVFR STRATUS HAS PUSHED INTO THE TERMINAL AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR FLT CAT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUB-VFR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12
HOURS.

KABR/KATY...BKN-OVC VFR STRATUS HAS WORKED INTO THE KABR TERMINAL
AND WILL ARRIVE AT THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THEN...THE SUB-VFR STRATUS OUT OVER KPIR/KMBG WILL EXTEND
UP INTO THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
/OR PERHAPS SOME OCCASIONAL VERY FINE FREEZING MIST/ LATER TONIGHT
AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180348 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
948 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...EITHER IFR OR MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KMBG...CURRENTLY VFR...BUT THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...AND HAVE SET THE BAR AT 06Z FOR TRANSITION FROM VFR TO
SUB-VFR...PER THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH MODEL OUTPUT.

KABR/KATY...SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO VFR BKN-OVC SKIES
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SUB-VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO WORK INTO THESE TWO TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180348 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
948 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES ARE FOLLOWING THE FORECAST TREND
OF COOLER READINGS ON LITTLE TO NO WIND ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
UNDER A CLEAR SKY...WITH WARMER READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
WHERE THERE IS SOME WIND AND SKIES ARE OVERCAST. NO NOTE-WORTHY
CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE
WORKING NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CWA AT THIS TIME...AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA CONTINUES TO WORK INTO
THE REGION. HAVE INTRODUCED SOME FLURRIES MENTION ACROSS THE
REGION IN CASE ANY OF THESE LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE
WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM END
UP WORKING IN TANDEM /SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM/ TO PRODUCE A FEW
FLAKES OF SNOW.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...EITHER IFR OR MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KMBG...CURRENTLY VFR...BUT THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...AND HAVE SET THE BAR AT 06Z FOR TRANSITION FROM VFR TO
SUB-VFR...PER THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH MODEL OUTPUT.

KABR/KATY...SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO VFR BKN-OVC SKIES
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SUB-VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO WORK INTO THESE TWO TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 172331 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
531 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...EITHER IFR OR MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KMBG...CURRENTLY VFR...BUT THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...AND HAVE SET THE BAR AT 06Z FOR TRANSITION FROM VFR TO
SUB-VFR...PER THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH MODEL OUTPUT.

KABR/KATY...SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO VFR BKN-OVC SKIES
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SUB-VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO WORK INTO THESE TWO TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 172331 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
531 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KPIR...EITHER IFR OR MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KMBG...CURRENTLY VFR...BUT THE IFR/MVFR STRATUS JUST OFF TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A PUSH NORTH AND EAST
TONIGHT...AND HAVE SET THE BAR AT 06Z FOR TRANSITION FROM VFR TO
SUB-VFR...PER THE LATEST AVAILABLE RAPID REFRESH MODEL OUTPUT.

KABR/KATY...SHOULD SEE CLEAR SKIES GIVING WAY TO VFR BKN-OVC SKIES
WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. SUB-VFR STRATUS IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO WORK INTO THESE TWO TERMINALS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

ALL FOUR TERMINALS COULD END UP SEEING SOME FLAKES OF SNOW FLYING
LATER TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WHILE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 172028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
228 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

STRATUS...WITH A LITTLE SCATTERING OF THE FRONT EDGE..CONTINUES TO
HANG OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. NO MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES UNTIL 12Z TO 18Z THURSDAY WHEN
THEY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. STILL THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS FAR EAST AS ABERDEEN
TONIGHT WHICH MADE FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. KEPT LOWS
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL HAVE CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD THURSDAY. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE AND MOISTURE ALOFT IS LACKING. WILL ALSO SEE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD...SO
MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY/FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THEY MAY NOT
REALIZE FULL WARMING POTENTIAL.



.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION BECOMES HIGHLY
POSITIVE...TO NEGATIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE PERIOD
BEGINS WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION. THESE WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH DRY WITH ONLY NOTICEABLE WARM
TEMPS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING WINDS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
RANGE IN THE 30S AND 40S...OR 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY COULD BECOME A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT
WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE ECMWF IS THE
STRONGEST MODEL AND KEEPS THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE GEM IS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE PCPN. THE
GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. BECAUSE OF THE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS...WILL MAKE VERY MINOR CHANCES TO THE POP GRIDS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. REGARDLESS WHICH MODEL USED...A
RETURN IS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER OUR BRIEF
WEEKEND WARM WEATHER.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOW STRATUS. KABR WILL SEE SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 800 FT/AGL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MOST TERMINALS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 171751 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOW STRATUS. KABR WILL SEE SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 800 FT/AGL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171751 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOW STRATUS. KABR WILL SEE SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 800 FT/AGL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171625 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG
AND KPIR. THE EAST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171625 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG
AND KPIR. THE EAST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 171625 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG
AND KPIR. THE EAST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 171625 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1025 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG
AND KPIR. THE EAST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG
AND KPIR. THE EAST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171125 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
525 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING...AFFECTING KMBG
AND KPIR. THE EAST WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE CIGS ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIFT TO VFR LEVELS DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 170939
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF
NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KMBG...MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE ERODING NEAR THIS TERMINAL. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMBG WILL BE JOINING KABR/KATY IN GOOD VFR
BY OR BEFORE 09Z.

KPIR...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THIS TERMINAL...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING
OUT ANY TIME SOON. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND
MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL
CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 170939
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.








&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF
NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KMBG...MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE ERODING NEAR THIS TERMINAL. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMBG WILL BE JOINING KABR/KATY IN GOOD VFR
BY OR BEFORE 09Z.

KPIR...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THIS TERMINAL...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING
OUT ANY TIME SOON. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND
MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL
CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 170525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES FORTHCOMING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. READINGS OVER THE EAST MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT OBSERVED TEMPS
RIGHT NOW ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF
NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KMBG...MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE ERODING NEAR THIS TERMINAL. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMBG WILL BE JOINING KABR/KATY IN GOOD VFR
BY OR BEFORE 09Z.

KPIR...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THIS TERMINAL...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING
OUT ANY TIME SOON. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND
MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL
CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 170525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES FORTHCOMING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. READINGS OVER THE EAST MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT OBSERVED TEMPS
RIGHT NOW ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF
NOCTURNAL FOG/STRATUS ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KMBG...MVFR STRATUS APPEARS TO BE ERODING NEAR THIS TERMINAL. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES...KMBG WILL BE JOINING KABR/KATY IN GOOD VFR
BY OR BEFORE 09Z.

KPIR...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH
DAKOTA...INCLUDING THIS TERMINAL...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS OF MOVING
OUT ANY TIME SOON. WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND
MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL
CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 170343 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
943 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES FORTHCOMING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. READINGS OVER THE EAST MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT OBSERVED TEMPS
RIGHT NOW ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL MONITOR
OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF NOCTURNAL STRATUS
ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KPIR/KMBG...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THESE TWO TERMINALS...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF MOVING OUT OF EITHER OF THESE TWO TERMINALS ANY TIME SOON. WILL
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 170343 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
943 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES FORTHCOMING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. READINGS OVER THE EAST MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT OBSERVED TEMPS
RIGHT NOW ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL MONITOR
OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF NOCTURNAL STRATUS
ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KPIR/KMBG...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THESE TWO TERMINALS...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF MOVING OUT OF EITHER OF THESE TWO TERMINALS ANY TIME SOON. WILL
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 170343 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
943 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES FORTHCOMING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST.
FOR NOW...TEMPS ARE IN THE BALLPARK. READINGS OVER THE EAST MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECAST...BUT OBSERVED TEMPS
RIGHT NOW ARE BEHAVING THEMSELVES.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL MONITOR
OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF NOCTURNAL STRATUS
ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KPIR/KMBG...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THESE TWO TERMINALS...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF MOVING OUT OF EITHER OF THESE TWO TERMINALS ANY TIME SOON. WILL
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 162350 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
550 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL MONITOR
OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF NOCTURNAL STRATUS
ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KPIR/KMBG...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THESE TWO TERMINALS...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF MOVING OUT OF EITHER OF THESE TWO TERMINALS ANY TIME SOON. WILL
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 162350 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
550 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KABR/KATY...FOLLOWING PERSISTENCE WITH COLD/DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD VFR CLEAR SKIES AND
UNRESTRICTED VISBIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL MONITOR
OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF NOCTURNAL STRATUS
ENDS UP DEVELOPING OR NOT.

KPIR/KMBG...LARGE SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...INCLUDING THESE TWO TERMINALS...AND SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF MOVING OUT OF EITHER OF THESE TWO TERMINALS ANY TIME SOON. WILL
FOLLOW PERSISTENCE HERE AS WELL...AND MAINTAIN AN MVFR CIG
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR UNTIL CIGS FINALLY CLEAR OFF.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 162110
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ARE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW
AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THE KABR TAF SITE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE KATY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER KMBG AND KPIR ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 162110
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
310 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE THE BIGGEST FORECAST ISSUE FOR
THE SHORT RANGE. FOR TNT COLD SFC HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA AND SHOULD COMBINE WITH NEW SNOW COVER TO PRODUCE SOME
PRETTY COLD TEMPERATURES. OUT WEST WHERE LOW CLOUD DECK HAS HUNG
STRONG...EXPECT THE MERCURY TO BE HELD UP SOME. SNOW COVER IS
LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY
TOO...ESPECIALLY WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A WEAK WAVE AND CONSEQUENT TROP FOLD
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE REGION. AFTER LOOKING AT VARIOUS PLAN
VIEW AND TIME HEIGHT MODEL DATA...AS WELL AS BUFR SOUNDINGS AM NOT
TOO HIP ON MEASURABLE PCPN. MAYBE SOME FLURRIES BUT NOT WORTH THE
MENTION FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AS CANADIAN AIR GETS PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A TRAIN OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK TOO
DRY TO RESULT IN ANY MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION. A POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAKING THE WEST TO EAST TRACK
ACROSS THE CONUS...ARRIVING OVER THE CENTRAL US BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS HAVE A LOT OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN...ESPECIALLY THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE ECMWF IS COLDER
THAN THE GFS...WHICH CURRENTLY WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN
OR SNOW...OR A MIX THEREOF. SOMETHING TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE
COMING WEEK. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY RANGE FROM NEAR NORMAL TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ARE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW
AREA OF CLEARING EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA. THEREFORE...THE KABR TAF SITE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE BE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
OVER THE KATY TAF SITE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER KMBG AND KPIR ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH AROUND TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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