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000
FXUS63 KABR 251736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD





000
FXUS63 KABR 251736 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1236 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR/LOW END MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL CONTINUE IMPACTING THE AREA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
IMPROVING TO LOW END MVFR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL
TERMINALS. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY FOR THE TERMINALS OF KMBG/KPIR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 251524 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 251524 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1024 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE CWA WAS COVERED BY LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE CEILING
HEIGHTS INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY WITH MAYBE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS EAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON. TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE WEST
ALSO FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 251130 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN IFR STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE WEST THIS MORNING.
IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR.
KPIR/KMBG WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
KATY/KABR MAY SEE SOME CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 250825
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CIGS MAY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 250825
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CIGS MAY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 250825
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
325 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WEAK
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WOBBLES AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DUE TO THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW...STRATUS CURRENTLY OVER THE CWA IS LIKELY TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...AND BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION...WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTING UP FURTHER WEST. THE RESULT
APPEARS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...AND CLOUDY WITH ON AND OFF RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST. IT ISNT UNTIL MONDAY THAT THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST...DRAGGING A FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...WITH BEST CHANCES APPEARING TO BE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH QPF AT THIS POINT LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70 FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. BY TUESDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN AND
AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM
BUT HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE. HIGHS MAY TOP OUT NEAR 80 BY THE END OF THE WEEK
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CIGS MAY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 250544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. STRATUS TO THE EAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CIGS MAY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 250544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. STRATUS TO THE EAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A COMBINATION OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS. CIGS MAY BREAK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 250118
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
818 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS CONVECTION PUSHES SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING. STRATUS TO THE EAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH A STRATUS LAYER BACKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE GENERALLY
MVFR.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 242326
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH A STRATUS LAYER BACKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE GENERALLY
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 242326
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS INITIALLY...WITH A STRATUS LAYER BACKING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. UPSTREAM CIGS ARE GENERALLY
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...CONNELLY








000
FXUS63 KABR 242028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 242028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 242028
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
328 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE
WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE WARM FRONT...A LOW FREEZING
LEVEL COULD RESULT IN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. MOST
HI-RES MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 14 WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING PCPN TONIGHT.
A STORM MOTION AROUND 10 KNOTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHILE PCPN SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 6Z...SOME HI-RES
MODELS SHOW SHOWERS RETROGRADING WESTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

BEYOND TONIGHT...PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS WEST. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLING OVER
MINNESOTA WILL PRODUCE A STABLE AIR MASS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH IT. RIGHT
NOW...INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL...SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH
AND THE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

WARMER AIR LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY
FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN






000
FXUS63 KABR 241727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 241727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 241727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SCATTERED NATURE OF THE SHOWERS...WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 241602 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BY 21Z
NEAR KATY. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS BASED ON HI-RES MODELS AT
KATY BUT CHANCES AT OTHER SITES ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT
ALL SITES THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE






000
FXUS63 KABR 241602 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1102 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. WITH SHOWERS
PUSHING EAST INTO MINNESOTA ALREADY THIS MORNING...HAVE WENT AHEAD
AND ENDED POPS UNTIL AT LEAST 21Z IN THE EAST. SINCE THE EAST WILL
SEE A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE...HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES. HI-RES MODELS STILL SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A WARM FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
AFTER 22Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BY 21Z
NEAR KATY. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS BASED ON HI-RES MODELS AT
KATY BUT CHANCES AT OTHER SITES ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT
ALL SITES THIS EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 241136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BY 21Z
NEAR KATY. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS BASED ON HI-RES MODELS AT
KATY BUT CHANCES AT OTHER SITES ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT
ALL SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE










000
FXUS63 KABR 241136 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EASTERN SD THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BY 21Z
NEAR KATY. HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF VCTS BASED ON HI-RES MODELS AT
KATY BUT CHANCES AT OTHER SITES ARE STILL TOO UNCERTAIN. MVFR VSBY
IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR/IFR AT
ALL SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 240819
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 240819
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 240819
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
319 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE TO
TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS THEY TRACK EAST...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO HOW LONG THEY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN
THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL BE SOME CLEARING AND DAYTIME HEATING OVER THIS
REGION /WHEREAS THE EASTERN CWA WILL PROBABLY BE UNDER CLOUD COVER
ALL DAY/. ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ABOUT 20 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. BY THE TIME A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH TRAVELS OVERHEAD AND COMBINES WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH...CONDITIONS COULD
BE JUST ABOUT RIGHT FOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW
FREEZING LEVELS...BRIEF HAIL IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. THE
ENERGY ALOFT DROPS SOUTH QUICKLY...AND NO LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS...SO EXPECT MOST STORMS WILL END BEFORE...OR SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION...WITH A
HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
COULD RESULT IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BEING FAIRLY WET...LEAVING
THE EAST IN A DRIER REGIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS THIS PERIOD. THE
EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A
DEVELOPING SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AS AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO
OVERCOME THE DRY AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS HOLD BACK ON ANY PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS THE MOISTURE FEED IS CUT OFF BY AN
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS.

BEYOND MONDAY NIGHT THE EXTENDED LOOKS DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE







000
FXUS63 KABR 240526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE








000
FXUS63 KABR 240526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY. LOOK FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...THEN MORE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...WISE









000
FXUS63 KABR 240214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 240214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 240214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 240214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS THERE. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 232329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 232329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 232329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 232329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY...BUT CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 232042
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAA AND LIFT FROM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 232042
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE THIS SHORT WAVE IS RATHER
WEAK...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN THE LLJ LATER
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST A DRY PERIOD ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 15-21Z AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS AND ANOTHER
INVADES THE REGION. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL DRAW HIGHER DEW POINTS
INTO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE VALUES
IN THE MID 40S ARE LIKELY. MU-CAPES VALUES AROUND 1K J/KG ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE KPIR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE INCREASING...THERE IS LIMITED
FORCING...OTHER THAN SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR.
MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA BY 18Z. THIS RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA COULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG TERM MODELS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE FEATURES. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A LARGE 50H TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WITH THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION. THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS WERE
INDICATING RAINFALL ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE REGION.
THUS...HAVE DECENT CHANCES...MAINLY WEST...FOR SHOWERS FROM
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE CWA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES
ON BY...THE MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER OUR
REGION FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THUS...EXPECT A
WARM UP ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH 70S
FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAA AND LIFT FROM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 231805 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAA AND LIFT FROM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 231805 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAA AND LIFT FROM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 231805 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAA AND LIFT FROM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 231805 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
105 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS. THESE
WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG WITH SOME
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH WAA AND LIFT FROM
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A FEW HIGH BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
SPREADING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
THESE MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT
THIS TIME...INSERTED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE TERMINALS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 231603
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1103 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231603
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1103 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 231603
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1103 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231603
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1103 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN






000
FXUS63 KABR 231149 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 231149 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231149 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 231149 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
649 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP. THERE IS THE SLIMMEST OF CHANCES
THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOW END CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
PRESENTLY...THE ONLY TERMINAL WORTH A VICINITY THUNDER MENTION
LATER THIS EVENING IS THE KPIR TERMINAL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 230839
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230839
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 230839
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...WITH RETURN FLOW WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LUCKILY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT TODAY...WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SO...FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...IT DOESNT SEEM LIKE THE DRY AIR AND WINDS EVER
COUPLE AND NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY.

LATER TODAY/TONIGHT...THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS SHIFTS EAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AND STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN SOURCES OF LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE PRETTY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HOW QUICKLY THE COLUMN CAN SATURATE IS STILL A BIG
QUESTION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS OFF BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE
WATERTOWN REGION WILL NOT SATURATE UNTIL 6Z OR LATER...SO TRENDED
POPS TOWARD THIS TIMING. IT IS NOTED THAT THIS TIMING IS SLOWER
THAN MOST HI RES MODEL DEPICTIONS. MU CAPE VALUES ARE IN THE
200-400 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TONIGHT...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED A THUNDER MENTION INTO THE FORECAST. OVERALL THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DO APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...HOWEVER IF SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES COULD BE AS HIGH AS
700 J/KG.

PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE PRETTY
UNCERTAIN...WITH THE WEAK UPPER PATTERN IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY AND THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
TRACK WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA. KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
CONSALL SOLUTION...BUT NO REAL CONFIDENCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL THEME CONTINUES IN THE OUT PERIODS. OVER
THIS REGION...WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS DOING THE BEST IT CAN TO
CALL THE DAKOTAS HOME AMID A VERY "STOPPED UP" AND BLOCKY PATTERN
COMPLETE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROFS BOOK-ENDING THE CONUS AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. UNDOUBTEDLY...THERE ARE SEVERAL LITTLE S/WS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DIFFUSE/WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THAT
COULD BE POTENTIALLY INFLUENCING THE CWA WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BETWEEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THE
GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS ALL SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THAT
WOULD CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER THIS REGION. THE
STRENGTH/TRAJECTORY OF THAT NORTHWEST FLOW STILL LOOKS TO PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN WHETHER THE CWA IS DRY AND WARM OR DRY AND COLD. FOR
NOW...THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT THIS MORNING HAS PRETTY MUCH ALL THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS RELEGATED TO THE FIRST FEW FORECAST PERIODS
IN THE EXTENDED...TIMING/MARCHING PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BASICALLY DRYING THINGS OUT FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS ALSO LEANING MORE TOWARD A SLOW WARMING
TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE FIRST OF MAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 230550 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN










000
FXUS63 KABR 230550 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY...AS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES DEVELOP.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN









000
FXUS63 KABR 230215 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
915 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 230215 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
915 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THIS EVENING...AND WILL
STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 222327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 222327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 222327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 222029
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 222029
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY








000
FXUS63 KABR 222029
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY







000
FXUS63 KABR 222029
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT WILL
STILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION TO BRING COLD
TEMPS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE TEMPS
WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THE JAMES
VALLEY COULD ONCE AGAIN SNEAK DOWN INTO THE TEENS.

DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH RH
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STILL...IT APPEARS THE LOWEST RH/STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT
COINCIDE AS EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE LOWEST RH BUT VERY LIGHT WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL SD THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS RH WILL STAY JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. HI RES MODELS SHOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MAKING IT
ACROSS THE STATE...IN ADDITION TO NEW DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF ANY NEW LOW LEVEL JET INDUCED
PRECIP THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE POPS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS
POINT. WILL LET PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH...IT APPEARS
FRIDAY NIGHT IS TRENDING DRIER SO HAVE LOWERED POPS. MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF THE CWA FRIDAY
NIGHT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

UPPER FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS QUITE MERIDIONAL WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER TROF PASSING
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD. PROFILES
SUGGEST LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BUT VERY LITTLE LIFT SO WILL
MAINTAIN MAINLY DRY FORECAST TO START. WILL SEE ANOTHER UPPER TROF
MOVE INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM PASSES MORE OR LESS
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...LEAVING ONLY A WEAK TROF IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM TO PASS THROUGH MONDAY. THUS...TRENDED POPS LOWER IN LINE
WITH SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED AS THE UPPER FLOW IS DOMINATED BY A WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAIN ON THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROF/RIDGE...WHICH COULD PUT US IN A
MILDER WESTERLY FLOW...OR A MUCH COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY








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