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000
FXUS63 KABR 011440 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX AND POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO INCORPORATE MENTION OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY-
RAIN CAPABLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES. UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 011440 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WX AND POP GRIDS THIS
MORNING TO INCORPORATE MENTION OF THE ONGOING SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HEAVY-
RAIN CAPABLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
THE FAR EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST ZONES. UPDATES ARE OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 011128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 011128 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

OTHER THAN SOME AREAS OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CIGS DUE TO FOG
AROUND KABR AND POSSIBLY KATY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 010846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 010846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. HIGHS SHOULD EASILY SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THURSDAY POTENTIALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY.
THESE READINGS ARE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME YEAR.

WHILE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS DRY...SOME CAMS ARE
SUGGESTING ISO/SCT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ LATER
TONIGHT. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD...STALLING OVER THE CWA LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING PUSHED EAST OF
THE STATE AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
BE DRY...THEN CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND POPS.

FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL THEN SEE A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY...IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN MAINLY IN THE 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 010525 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 010525 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 010525 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE IS THE
CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG NEAR KATY AS A DISSIPATING FRONT POOLS SOME
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SD TOWARD MORNING. OTHER
SITES WILL DRY OUT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 312333 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 312333 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 311940
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 311940
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
240 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE APPEARS TO BE TEMPERATURES.

CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S AND 80S. A COLD FRONT IS
WORKING INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A SKINNY BAND OF
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SLOWLY WORKING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE STATE.

THE FORECAST DOES NOT REALLY BODE ALL THAT WELL FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEYOND THE TONIGHT PERIOD. AFTER TONIGHT...NO LOW LEVEL
FORCING OR FRONTS TO INITIATE CONVECTION OFF OF IN THE SHORT TERM.
WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING TEMPS STILL APPLIES THIS GO AROUND THROUGH
MID-WEEK AS WELL...DESPITE THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY.

IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE BETTER MID AND
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OFF TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND PROG THE COLD
FRONT TO STALL OUT/DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH
MINNESOTA TONIGHT...SO IF CLOUDS/PRECIP GO AWAY LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WINDS LIGHT AND SKIES CLEAR ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG BY MORNING...GIVEN THE HIGH DEWPOINT READINGS
CURRENTLY OVER THAT AREA. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD FOG MENTION AT
THIS TIME. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FORECAST AREA SETS UP IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW RIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
CATCH IS WHILE LOW LEVEL WAA WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE
CWA...EXPECTING TO SEE THE SAME TRICKY ISSUE WITH MIXING. DO
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WINDS KEEP A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AND LIMIT
MIXING...THEREBY LIMITING HOW WARM WE CAN GET? OR DOES A PORTION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT OF WIND FOR BETTER MIXING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEREBY
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ONCE AGAIN ACHIEVING MID TO UPPER
90S FOR HIGHS THOSE TWO DAYS? OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...LACK
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND HAS RESULTED IN
MARKEDLY LOWER HIGH TEMPS THAN CAPABLE OF REACHING ESPECIALLY
THROUGHOUT AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL REQUIRE SOME INCREASED SCRUTINY /PERHAPS
CONSIDERING BIAS-CORRECTED GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT?/.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA ON THURSDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT SUPERBLEND GAVE. THURSDAY LOOKING VERY SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY IN REGARDS TO 850 MB TEMPS AND WINDS. HAD
TROUBLE REACHING UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S OVER EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA
AND SUPERBLEND GAVE SIMILAR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...IT APPEARS PATTERN GETS FAIRLY ACTIVE BEGINNING FRIDAY AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS THEN STALLS. A COUPLE
SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WHICH SHOULD BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 311733 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT





000
FXUS63 KABR 311733 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. KPIR
AND KMBG HAVE ALREADY SEEN THE PASSAGE AND HAVE NORTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING.
KABR WILL SEE NORTHWEST BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE RIGHT AROUND 18Z. KATY WILL GRADUALLY SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL SD SO WILL INCLUDE
A VCSH MENTION AT KPIR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT/DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT




000
FXUS63 KABR 311457 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 311457 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

MINIMAL CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. FULLY
EXPECTING MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING A FEW SPRINKLES...WHILE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT OVER
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA BORDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 311126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...MAINLY FROM SUMMIT TO THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 310816
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A FEW WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR THIS AM AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA. HAVING PASSED OVER KMBG WITHOUT A
CEILING...EXPECTATION IS MOST OF THESE RETURNS WILL END UP AS
NOTHING MORE THEN SPRINKLES...SO WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE WAVE/FRONT CONTINUE EAST. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THIS AM...BUT AS THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...ANTICIPATE WINDS BY MID DAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
INTENSE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...FLOW ALOFT IS
SOUTHWESTERLY...SO WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
A DEEP ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP US CAPPED. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WILL SEE GOOD MIXING TODAY SO HIGHS CAN STILL REACH
INTO THE 80S WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. SURFACE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING BACK WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS DRY AS THE REGION WILL
BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACH
THE CWA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALLS OUT OVER THE
AREA. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY HINDER
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE FRONT FIRST SETTLES IN...BUT WILL
THEN SEE BETTER CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS COOLER AIR
MOVES IN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COOLER AIR THEN MOVES WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND IN THE 70S SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 310529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 302334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
A SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HAZE THIS EVENING NEAR KPIR REDUCING VSBY TO
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 302334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
634 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
A SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME HAZE THIS EVENING NEAR KPIR REDUCING VSBY TO
MVFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 302035
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 302035
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
335 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301727 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

EXPECT VFR ON SOUTHERLY BREEZES. THERE SHOULD BE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST OCCURRING SOMETIME IN THE MORNING FOR KPIR AND KMBG.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301523 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1023 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 80S EAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 90S OVER CENTRAL SD. SMOKE
THICKNESS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY...AND BETTER MIXING AND WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALLOW US TO WARM A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT
WE SAW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 301127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 301127 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300854
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

BETTER MIXING AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE 90S TODAY. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WELL...WITH A STRONG CAP AND A DRY/WARM LAYER BELOW
12KFT...AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ABOVE THAT...RESULTING IN
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE FRONT. A PRESSURE RISE OF
10MB/6HRS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...PEAKING WEST RIVER...AND WEAKENING
RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THUS...EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS
EARLY MONDAY BRIEFLY...WITH ONLY BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS...BUT AT LEAST THE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH RETURN FLOW
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST WHEN THE PERIOD BEGINS. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD UNDER THIS PATTERN. THE LOW TO THE
WEST FINALLY BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...AND MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. SOME CONCERN THAT A MID LEVEL CAP WILL HINDER
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY...BUT H7 TEMPS THEN COOL ENOUGH THAT CHANCES
WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z AND WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 300526
AFDABR

FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 300526
AFDABR

FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 300526
AFDABR

FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 292343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
643 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. THE SKY WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE SKY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HAZY WITH SMOKE BUT WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS BY 18Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 292036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOMETHING SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 292036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY WITH TOASTY 850 MB TEMPS IN THE +20S CELSIUS. AT THE SFC...A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON SUNDAY. WITH BETTER MIXING TOMORROW AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...WILL BE ADDING A HANDFUL OF DEGREES TO HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS SEEN ON SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL SD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS RH VALUES DROP
INTO THE 20S WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES...BUT FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED NONETHELESS.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES PROGGED FOR THE OUT PERIODS.
THE ONE MAINTAINING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF INDUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE SOMETIME OVER THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE HEADLINE IN THE EXTENDED SHOULD
READ..."UNSEASONABLY HOT FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER".

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE
SOMETHING SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 291750 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SKY WILL REMAIN A BIT HAZY TODAY FROM FOREST FIRE SMOKE OUT WEST.
VSBY HAS NOT BEEN AFFECTED LARGELY...EXCEPT FOR 8 SM AT MBG. WILL
KEEP SMOKE MENTION OUT OF THE GRIDS UNLESS OTHER SITES BEGIN TO
SEE VSBY REDUCTIONS. OTHERWISE...CURRENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS ON
TRACK BUT SOME AREAS MAY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES SHORT. HAZY
SKY...MODEST DEWPOINTS AND LACK OF REAL GOOD MIXING IN SOME AREAS
MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH. NONETHELESS...WILL STILL SEE
WARM READINGS ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO
THE MID 90S WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO ABOVE CLIMO BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. 850MB WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL ALSO AID IN MIXING. 850MB WINDS INCREASING TO 50KTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE TEMPERATURE DROP. A
VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO EXIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN A STRONG CAP. NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ABOVE 12KFT ABOVE THE VERY WARM/DRY LAYER...SO THERE MAY BE SOME
ELEVATED ACCAS TYPE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGRATE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
EARLY MONDAY. PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE CWA WILL THEN
BE SITUATED BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A SLOWLY APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT LOOK
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY...WITH THE ECMWF JUST A
BIT FASTER THAN THE GFS. ONLY REAL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE WITH THIS FRONT ON FRIDAY...BUT A FAIRLY
WARM MID LEVEL CAP MAY BE A HINDERING FACTOR. DUE TO THIS...WILL
KEEP POPS IN THE SCHC/CHC CATEGORY...SIMILAR TO SUPERBLEND...FOR NOW.

WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

GOOD VFR CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL FOUR TAFS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. THERE ARE PATCHES OF SMOKE OBSCURATION
AROUND...THAT ARE CAUSING SOME OBSERVING PLATFORMS THROUGHOUT THE
REGION TO REPORT 3SM TO 6SM VISBY IN SMOKE...SO DID INTRODUCE THAT
AT THE KMBG TERMINAL.

LATER TONIGHT...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT SOME IFR VISBY/CIGS IN
FOG AND OR LOW STRATUS WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AROUND AND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE DRAPEDNORTH-
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO INTRODUCE SOMETHING
SUB-VFR INTO...FOR STARTERS...THE KABR/KATY TAFS HERE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN




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