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000
FXUS63 KABR 300006 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EAST NOW...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 300006 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EAST NOW...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 300006 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
706 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WIND SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
EAST NOW...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KABR 292039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK






000
FXUS63 KABR 292039
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A STORM SYSTEM
PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ON MONDAY WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INTO THE
AREA. TEMPS AT 925 MB SHOULD WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER TEENS...WHICH
IS NEAR TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES IN COMBINATION WITH DECENT MIXING WINDS AND A DRY AIR
MASS COULD RESULT IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER...ESPECIALLY
IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS
RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE
925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWN TO BE WARMER...MIXING WINDS ARE
RATHER LIMITED EXCEPT ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE 60S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
FIRE DANGER ONCE AGAIN FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY. A FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINE MAYBE NEEDED AS RH VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TEMPERATURES. THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN SHOULD FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THAT RIDGE SHIFTING BACK TOWARD THE
ROCKIES/FAR WESTERN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEKEND. A FAIRLY
DECENT FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BUT IT
APPEARS THAT FRONT WILL PROBABLY COME THROUGH DRY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN LIKELY TO BE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD SETTLE OUT OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THAT REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. BY NEXT WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE HEADED HIGHER
AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 291720 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
PCPN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 291720 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
PCPN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 291720 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
PCPN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK








000
FXUS63 KABR 291720 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1220 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
PCPN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE VALID
TAF PERIOD.  WINDS WILL DIE OFF AS WE HEAD TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK









000
FXUS63 KABR 291535
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1035 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO CANCEL THE HIGH WIND WARNING.
WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HAVE ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS THE
PCPN HAS PUSHED EAST OF THE CWA. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABR
AND ATY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO OVER 45 KNOTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...PIR AND MBG WILL ALSO HAVE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






000
FXUS63 KABR 291138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABR
AND ATY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO OVER 45 KNOTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...PIR AND MBG WILL ALSO HAVE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 291138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABR
AND ATY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO OVER 45 KNOTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...PIR AND MBG WILL ALSO HAVE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 291138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABR
AND ATY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO OVER 45 KNOTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...PIR AND MBG WILL ALSO HAVE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 291138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH ABR
AND ATY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY SOME VERY STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO OVER 45 KNOTS WITH THESE SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...PIR AND MBG WILL ALSO HAVE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS MOVING OVER
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 290902
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
402 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 290902
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
402 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 290528 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 290528 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 290528 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 290528 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM NOON CDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 290029 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
729 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290029 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
729 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290029 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
729 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 290029 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
729 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER THIS
EVENING...SPECIFICALLY WITH TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. THE
MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT WAS JUST
WEST OF THE CWA AT 730 PM CDT...SO ADJUSTED POPS TO TRY AND TIME
ITS MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CWA. ALSO LOOKS LIKE THUNDER POTENTIAL
GOES AWAY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO JUST KEPT A
MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND WENT WITH JUST RAIN SHOWERS BY
THE TIME IT REACHES THE EASTERN CWA. NO CHANGES TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 282329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 282329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 282329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN







000
FXUS63 KABR 282329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...WILL
TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN








000
FXUS63 KABR 282003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD








000
FXUS63 KABR 282003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A STRONG FRONT WILL ROLL ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS AHEAD OF...AND BEHIND IT...AND ALSO SCT SHOWERS/ISOLATED
STORMS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN THOUGH ARE THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FEATURE. PRES RISE PROGS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MIXING OUT WINDS TO 50 KNOTS UP AND DOWN THE MO RVR
VALLEY. SO HAVE EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WARNING EAST TO ALSO COVER
COUNTIES JUST EAST OF THE MO RIVER. FURTHER EAST THINK A WIND
ADVISORY WILL COVER THE SITUATION JUST FINE. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
FIRE WX. THE BEST COMBINATION/JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND/LOW RH SHOULD
OCCUR OVER SC SOUTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER ITS NOT A SLAM DUNK GIVEN
SLACKENING WINDS AROUND THE TIME OF LOWEST RH...SO A WATCH WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. NEEDLESS TO SAY THE STRONG WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER CWA WIDE ON SUNDAY. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN WITH NO MAJOR ISSUES EXPECTED.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE LONG TERM LOOKS FAIRLY TRANQUIL. PROBABLY THE BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A SFC FRONT MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN SETTLES OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS
MOSTLY INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOO FAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
ALLOW ANY DECENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
THE CWA. THAT FRONT SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE PCPN SOUTH OF THE
ABR CWA LATER IN THE PERIOD...CLOSER IN VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BAROCLINIC ZONE. TEMPERATURES BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE FRONT LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ TO 11 AM CDT /10 AM
     MDT/ SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     SDZ267-270.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD









000
FXUS63 KABR 281710
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 281710
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 281710
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 281710
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...MAINLY FOR THE TERMINAL OF KMBG. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT KMBG AND KPIR LATE TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.
THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 30 KNOTS BY 12Z SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS OF KABR AND KATY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. THESE WINDS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD






000
FXUS63 KABR 281542 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH/DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND
ABR THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MBG AND PIR
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR









000
FXUS63 KABR 281542 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH/DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND
ABR THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MBG AND PIR
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 281542 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH/DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND
ABR THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MBG AND PIR
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR









000
FXUS63 KABR 281542 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1042 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING NICELY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH/DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND
ABR THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MBG AND PIR
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 281207 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
707 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH/DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND
ABR THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MBG AND PIR
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 281207 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
707 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MVFR/LOW VFR STRATUS WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTH/DISSIPATE OVER ATY AND
ABR THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY THIS MORNING FOR ALL LOCATIONS AS THE MIXING LAYER
DEEPENS. A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THIS
WILL SPREAD IN CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOST
LOCATIONS MAINLY THIS EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...VERY
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MBG AND PIR
LATER TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
TO 45 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 280947
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 280947
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 280947
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 280947
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
447 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

RETURN FLOW WINDS HAVE SET UP ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
PATTERN...UNCERTAIN OF HOW THE AREA OF STRATUS CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA WILL EVOLVE. TOOK AN OPTIMISTIC APPROACH AND
GRADUALLY TRENDED TOWARD CLEAR SKIES...BUT OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS
STICK AROUND IT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST TODAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP TRACK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MODELS DO
SUGGEST THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AT 30 PERCENT OR
GREATER...BUT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA COULD BE DROPPING TO
THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. MAY ALSO SEE ENHANCED WINDS IN THE DOWNSLOPE
REGION OF THE SISSETON HILLS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST WIND
DIRECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN....ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODELS EVEN SHOW WEAK CAPE ACROSS
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA. QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTH TO
POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT. THE MAJOR CONCERN WITH THE SYSTEM HOWEVER IS THE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE REGIME. MODELS SHOW LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AROUND 50
KTS OF WIND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO SOME SPECULATION ON HOW
HIGH GUSTS WILL GET...BUT WENT AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR
THE FAR WESTERN CWA REGARDLESS...AND SURROUNDED THE WARNING WITH A
WIND ADVISORY. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE FUTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES...BUT AT LEAST IT
IS A START.

FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN A CONCERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S. BY MONDAY THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...BUT DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN...SO MIN RH
VALUES MAY BE LOWER. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER IN
THE FOREFRONT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS EARLY ON WITH SOME DIFFERENCES LATER
ON BUT WERE NOT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA AS SOUTH WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING IN THE
WARMER AIR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH MAYBE 80
DEGREES SOUTHWEST IN THE CWA. THE MODELS THEN AGREE WELL WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STRONGER CAA KICKS
IN. THE MODELS SHOW LOWERING THICKNESSES WITH PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH 40S AND 50S FOR FRIDAY. THE EC WAS
SHOWING COOLER AIR ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY AND THUS LOWER
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THAN THE GFS/MEX GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...A FEW
WEAK SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. THUS...HAVE IT DRY FOR NOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ004-005-009-010-
     016-017-034>036-045-048.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ003-015-033.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 280533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 280533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 280533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 280533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG OR LOW STRATUS BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR WILL REMAIN AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY. LATER SATURDAY EVENING...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...TURNING WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMING VERY STRONG. SOME GUSTS COULD
REACH 50 KNOTS. ALSO...LATER SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT KABR FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ON SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY. LATER
SATURDAY EVENING...RAIN CHANCES ARE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.

VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ AT KATY COULD GRADUALLY LOWER INTO
MVFR STRATUS /2000-3000FT AGL/ OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 280202 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT KABR...BUT MVFR STRATUS /1000-1500FT AGL/
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO IFR RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KATY. AT THAT POINT...VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 280202 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT KABR...BUT MVFR STRATUS /1000-1500FT AGL/
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO IFR RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KATY. AT THAT POINT...VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280202 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT KABR...BUT MVFR STRATUS /1000-1500FT AGL/
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO IFR RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KATY. AT THAT POINT...VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280202 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP /SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE JUST WEST
OF THE CWA/ SHOWCASES A STALLED OUT SURFACE TROF TO THE WEST...AND
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. PLENTY OF
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AROUND AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONSIDERABLY
INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY REGION. FURTHER EAST INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY OVER INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA...SEEING THE
DISSIPATION OF LIGHT SNOW RETURNS ON RADAR ALONG THE SODAK/MN
BORDER. THERE COULD BE SOME SPORADIC LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A
SHORT TIME THIS EVENING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER
STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE EAST ARE EXPECTED TO HANG ON OVERNIGHT ON
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. MAY EVEN SEE CEILINGS LOWER
ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE
DECREASING POPS/SNOW MENTION TREND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ZONES...AND HAVE ADDED SOME FOG MENTION LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT KABR...BUT MVFR STRATUS /1000-1500FT AGL/
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO IFR RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KATY. AT THAT POINT...VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 272354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT KPIR AND KMBG COULD TEMPORARILY DROP TO IFR IN
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
VICINITY ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW HAS ENDED AT KABR...BUT MVFR STRATUS /1000-1500FT AGL/
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. AS WINDS DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT...CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO IFR RANGE. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AT KATY. AT THAT POINT...VFR STRATUS /APPX 3500FT AGL/ WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO MVFR STRATUS /1500-2500FT AGL/ OVERNIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN








000
FXUS63 KABR 272016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OF KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS ONE MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUAL EXIT THE TERMINAL OF KABR AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE TERMINAL OF KATY AFTER 0Z. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING MVFR CIGS FOR KATY AND KABR UNTIL WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR KMBG AND
KPIR AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 272016
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL TRACK OVER THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AN
AREA OF HEAVIER SNOW LOOKS TO BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA...SO MAY SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION THERE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...THEN
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS AND
WARMER AIR BEING PULLED UP INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...THEN WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
HOWEVER...STRONG MIXING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE SOME FIRE WEATHER ISSUES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY...WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EAST TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S WEST RIVER. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
MEAN HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST MODELS AGREE WELL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...BUT DISAGREE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON
MONDAY TRANSITIONING TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TUESDAY. THIS
TRANSITION WILL PRODUCE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED CWA WIDE. THE RIDGE WILL BE
REPLACED BY A STRONG TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AT H7 ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. THE GFS
TAKES THE H7 TROUGH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE H7 TROUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. SINCE MODELS DISAGREE...WILL RUN WITH SUPERBLENDS
GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OF KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS ONE MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUAL EXIT THE TERMINAL OF KABR AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE TERMINAL OF KATY AFTER 0Z. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING MVFR CIGS FOR KATY AND KABR UNTIL WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR KMBG AND
KPIR AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD








000
FXUS63 KABR 271807
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OF KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS ONE MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUAL EXIT THE TERMINAL OF KABR AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE TERMINAL OF KATY AFTER 0Z. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING MVFR CIGS FOR KATY AND KABR UNTIL WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR KMBG AND
KPIR AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD








000
FXUS63 KABR 271807
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A WARM AIR ADVECTION BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
OF KABR AND KATY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES
AS LOW AS ONE MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF
SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD GRADUAL EXIT THE TERMINAL OF KABR AROUND MID
AFTERNOON...AND THE TERMINAL OF KATY AFTER 0Z. LOW STRATUS AND/OR
FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
MENTIONING MVFR CIGS FOR KATY AND KABR UNTIL WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NOT MENTION LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOR KMBG AND
KPIR AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD







000
FXUS63 KABR 271620 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 271620 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 271620 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 271620 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW NOW FALLING FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO JUST WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE AREA OF SNOW MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH
THE SNOW WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 271155 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
655 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 271155 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
655 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 271155 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
655 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WAA LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT ALL LOCATIONS TO HAVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE
LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT ABR AND ATY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME
LIGHT RAIN WAS MIXED IN. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO FORM ESPECIALLY
AT ABR AND ATY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD ALSO NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME LIGHT FOG FORMED TONIGHT AT ABR AND ATY WITH THE
LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 270931
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
431 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR VISBIES...ESPECIALLY AT THE
KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 270931
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
431 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

A JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW...COMBINED WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THE BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWING OR
STALLING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PTYPE...WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT RAIN MIXED IN THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER AN INCH. THE WESTERN CWA WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S. LOCATIONS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

THE SYSTEM SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AND RETURN FLOW
WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP RH VALUES INTO THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARING THE 20 OR 25 MPH
MARK...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. IT
DOES LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT AT RAINFALL ALONG AND BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. IN FACT...MU CAPE VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS RISE
TO OR ABOVE 500 J/KG. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER INTO
THE FAR WESTERN CWA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ACROSS THE US. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN US PUSHING SLOWLY EAST INTO THE CENTRAL US THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING OVER THE RIDGE MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...AS THE
UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US...A STRONG PACIFIC JET
WILL BE PUNCHING INTO THE WEST COAST WITH A COUPLE STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE FIRST ONE WILL
MOVE EAST AND INTO OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF RAIN
TO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. NONE OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK LIKE
BIG RAIN PRODUCERS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR VISBIES...ESPECIALLY AT THE
KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR








000
FXUS63 KABR 270533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA RIGHT NOW. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE CLOUD-COVER
IS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE. NO CHANGES PLANNED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHOW UP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE AREA OF SNOW THAT TRACKED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA TODAY HAS PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE CWA AS
OF 19Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BEGIN TO GET PUSHED EASTWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSH OVER
THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY SEE THE RAIN BECOME SNOW AGAIN ACROSS
THE FAR EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. DECENT WAA DEVELOPS ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING. DUE TO THE
STRONG WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEST ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A LARGE
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARMER AIR FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
AT 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z GFS SHOWS FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AT THAT TIME
WHEREAS THE 12Z EC STILL SHOWS THE FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT THERE
COULD STILL BE LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA.

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GET BACK INTO SOME WARMER AIR. ASIDE FROM THE
PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...THERE WILL BE
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLANCES THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS SHOWING
UP IN MODELS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
DAKOTAS WITH PRECIP...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR VISBIES...ESPECIALLY AT THE
KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR







000
FXUS63 KABR 270533 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA RIGHT NOW. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHILE CLOUD-COVER
IS HANGING TOUGH ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. CURRENT
FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE. NO CHANGES PLANNED. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD START TO SHOW UP LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA
WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE AREA OF SNOW THAT TRACKED OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA TODAY HAS PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE CWA AS
OF 19Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...THEN WILL BEGIN TO GET PUSHED EASTWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSH OVER
THE CWA. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
MORNING...WITH A TRANSITION TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SLOWLY EASTWARD. MAY SEE THE RAIN BECOME SNOW AGAIN ACROSS
THE FAR EAST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY LOOK QUIET AS THE CWA WILL BE
BETWEEN SYSTEMS. DECENT WAA DEVELOPS ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING. DUE TO THE
STRONG WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING TREND TAKE PLACE. THE WARMER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WEST ON FRIDAY...MAKING FOR A LARGE
GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THE
WARMER AIR FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OR JUST EAST OF THE AREA
AT 12Z SUNDAY. 12Z GFS SHOWS FRONT INTO MINNESOTA AT THAT TIME
WHEREAS THE 12Z EC STILL SHOWS THE FRONT OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
NONETHELESS IT WILL STILL BE RATHER WINDY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT THERE
COULD STILL BE LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
EASTERN CWA.

MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE MILD TEMPERATURES AS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS GET BACK INTO SOME WARMER AIR. ASIDE FROM THE
PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EAST...THERE WILL BE
SMALL CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA ON MONDAY AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY GLANCES THE REGION. A STRONGER SYSTEM IS SHOWING
UP IN MODELS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
DAKOTAS WITH PRECIP...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WARM
ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE ALL RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS...INTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND SUB-VFR CIGS AND/OR VISBIES...ESPECIALLY AT THE
KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...MOHR








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