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000
FXUS63 KABR 300846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A PAIR OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL TRANSLATE
INTO WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THUS...WE WILL SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
A VERY GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TOO STRONG A CAP FOR ANY
WEAK CONVECTION...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER
AMOEBIC...WHICH MEANS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY SEE A VERY SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHS/LOWS.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GET DAMPENED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...AND THEREFORE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WILL SEE JUST A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.










&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 300846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A PAIR OF WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES WILL TRANSLATE
INTO WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. THUS...WE WILL SEE AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM PASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE
A VERY GRADUALLY WARMING TREND IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...SO FRIDAY WILL LIKELY SEE TOO STRONG A CAP FOR ANY
WEAK CONVECTION...WHILE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED.
MEANWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER
AMOEBIC...WHICH MEANS THAT SURFACE TEMPS WILL ONLY SEE A VERY SLOW
INCREASE IN HIGHS/LOWS.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GET DAMPENED
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...THEN WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE REGION. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW...AND THEREFORE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...THEN WILL SEE JUST A BIT OF A COOL DOWN BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.










&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING
IN PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC.
BOTH DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING
PROFILE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
CWA. AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND
AGAIN WED AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 300526 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE
REGION. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING
IN PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC.
BOTH DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING
PROFILE WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN
CWA. AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND
AGAIN WED AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 300014 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
714 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ND TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL SD. SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE BIT WEST INTO CORSON COUNTY
BASED ON LATEST STORM MOTION ON RADAR. ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS EVENING. IT IS GENERATING
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS HOUR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. TSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 300014 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
714 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS ND TOWARD NORTH
CENTRAL SD. SHIFTED POPS A LITTLE BIT WEST INTO CORSON COUNTY
BASED ON LATEST STORM MOTION ON RADAR. ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED
TO TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.



&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING DOWN OUT OF ND THIS EVENING. IT IS GENERATING
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD THIS HOUR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES SO NO MENTION WAS MADE
IN THE TAFS. TSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF WITH SUNSET.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 292003
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE RECENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK BEFORE DE-AMPLIFYING. DRY AND STABLE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WITH THAT SAID...EACH DAY WITH DIABATIC HEATING IN
PLACE...THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DRY ADIABATIC. BOTH
DAYS WE END UP WITH ELEVATED SKINNY CAPE IN THE SOUNDING PROFILE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA. THE HI RES MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWA.
AND A WEAK WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
CWA TNT...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR TNT...AND AGAIN WED
AFTN TO MATCH UP WITH WESTERN/NORTHERN NEIGHBORS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW. SAME OR SIMILAR COULD HAPPEN BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
WE GRADUALLY GET WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FEATURING A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY THE NORTHEAST LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE FURTHER
NORTHEAST...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE GETS DAMPENED AND ENERGY MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL MARK THE RETURN OF POPS INTO THE
FORECAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE PROFILES ARE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. TEMPERATURES ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH SOME LARGE MODEL INCONSISTENCIES
SHOW UP IN THE THERMAL PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. SO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES OVER THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 291727 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED BEFORE 4PM
PACKAGE.

SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY
GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD. AFTERNOON CU WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 291519 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1019 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED BEFORE 4PM
PACKAGE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DE-AMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ABR AND ATY EARLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 291146 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ABR AND ATY EARLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 291146 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOG AND STRATUS AT ABR AND ATY EARLY...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR ALL LOCATIONS
WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 290911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT050 STRATOCU CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY

GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT.
DESPITE A LACK OF ANY NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVES...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY...THOUGH WITH DRY LOW
LEVELS WE ARE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW WEAK CU AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE...OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MODELS SUGGEST A
SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE/EASTERN US TROUGH
FINALLY WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THUS...THE DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE GFS
AND EC BOTH SHOW WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY COMING OVER THE WESTERN
RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
PERIOD. THUS...HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CWA.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT050 STRATOCU CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 290537 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT050 STRATOCU CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AFTER 15Z
FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290231
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
931 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. INHERITED GRIDS LOOK SPOT ON WITH
TEMPS/SKY COVER. NO ZONE FORECAST PACKAGE UPDATE PLANNED ATTM.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 282333
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH VALID
FORECAST TIME. FEW-SCT STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 02Z...LEAVING CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL AREAS
THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...HINTZ
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 281934
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
234 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE CURRENT POSITIVE PNA PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT RANGE...WITH ONLY SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WITH A LACK OF ANY DECENT WAA...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
A SLOW RISE THROUGH THE WEEK. AS FOR PCPN...CHANCES STILL LOOK
PRETTY MARGINAL. ALTHOUGH THAT SAID FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DO SHOW STEEP SFC/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH
SOME DIABATICALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY ALSO BRINGS ABOUT A WEE BIT MORE SFC BASED CAPE SO WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A WEAK SHOWER/SPKLS WITHIN WEAK SHEAR
AXIS ALOFT AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS. OVERALL THOUGH NOT ENOUGH
OF A THREAT OF MEASURABLE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOVER WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES AROUND NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
SHOWS SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ON SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE VALID TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING UPON SUNSET.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 281538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIME FRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281138 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
638 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS ATY AND
ABR INTO THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280834
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280834
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
334 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN AREA OF STRATUS AROUND 6KFT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. NAM PROFILES SHOW ANOTHER DAY OF WEAK INSTABILITY...SO
ADDITIONAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND ITS PERIPHERY
ONCE THE SUN COMES UP. THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS AS PARTIAL
CLEARING BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REACH
INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REST
OF THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SLOW WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK AS WELL COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS
TODAY AND WARMER AIR BEGINS TO INFILTRATE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN REMAINS NEARLY THE SAME THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US AND TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US PATTERN REMAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH...THE
EASTERN US TROUGH WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAYBE SOME
EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA...WHILE THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BKN-OVC DECK OF MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA...WHILE THE WEST HAS CLEARED OFF. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS
ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BKN-OVC DECK OF MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 272322 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
622 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A BKN-OVC DECK OF MAINLY VFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL SCATTER OUT OR CLEAR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271946
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
EAST...BUT REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS...WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO BE VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 271946
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
246 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE EMERGENCE OF THE POSITIVE PNA PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CHALLENGE. WITH LESS CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER A LITTLE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LYING JAMES
RIVER AND BIG SIOUX RIVER VALLEYS...WHERE COLD AIR DRAINAGE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR. OTHERWISE A SLOW WARM UP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO REAL CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SPINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH NO REAL NOTABLE WAVES OF
ENERGY IDENTIFIED AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...MAINTAINED THE DRY
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A VERY SLOW WARMING TREND. 850 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS CELSIUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL RISE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S CELSIUS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
EAST...BUT REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS...WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO BE VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271739 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE BELIES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG SHALLOW
CAPE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHILE JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL BE SEVERAL KNOTS
LOWER THEN SATURDAYS WINDS...BUT STILL BREEZY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PRESS EAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS AROUND A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...SO BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE
LONG TERM. A LARGE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE 50H
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
EAST...BUT REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS...WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO BE VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271739 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE BELIES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG SHALLOW
CAPE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHILE JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL BE SEVERAL KNOTS
LOWER THEN SATURDAYS WINDS...BUT STILL BREEZY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PRESS EAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS AROUND A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...SO BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE
LONG TERM. A LARGE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE 50H
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MVFR CLOUD
DECK OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF SOUTH DAKOTA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK OF CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT AND MOVE
EAST...BUT REMAINED OPTIMISTIC IN THE TAFS...WITH ALL SITES
FORECAST TO BE VFR BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271140 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE BELIES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG SHALLOW
CAPE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHILE JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL BE SEVERAL KNOTS
LOWER THEN SATURDAYS WINDS...BUT STILL BREEZY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PRESS EAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS AROUND A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...SO BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE
LONG TERM. A LARGE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE 50H
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY...MVFR/LOW
VFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT TO ALL VFR BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271140 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE BELIES A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN LESS THAN 200 J/KG SHALLOW
CAPE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES...WHILE JUST A FEW SHALLOW CU
WILL DEVELOP FARTHER WEST. MIXED DOWN WINDS WILL BE SEVERAL KNOTS
LOWER THEN SATURDAYS WINDS...BUT STILL BREEZY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW PRESS EAST KEEPING THE AREA DRY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...H85 READINGS AROUND A STANDARD
DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO...SO BELOW NORMAL THE ENTIRE PERIOD.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE
LONG TERM. A LARGE 50H RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A LARGE 50H
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US PREVAILS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM AROUND 80 DEGREES EAST TO THE MID 80S ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA DROPS OFF TO OUR EAST TODAY...MVFR/LOW
VFR STRATUS CLOUDS BEHIND IT WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...MIXING OUT TO ALL VFR BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR AND THE WINDS WILL GO
LIGHT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT ALL LOCATIONS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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