000
FXUS63 KABR 191124 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS LIMITED TO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DOES RESULT IN MOST CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED TODAY...SO
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TRANSPORTING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD HOWEVER...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.
A STRONG 40+ KT LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. STORMS
MAY BE STRONG OVERNIGHT AS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE EXTENT OF THE
LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS OUR CWA. CAPE
VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALONG
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6 SHEAR...THERE
CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE
INHIBITING FACTORS HOWEVER WILL BE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700
MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 13 C ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA.
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW REORGANIZES WITH THE LOW CENTER
INTENSIFYING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODEL
DIFFERENCES LIMIT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. NOT ONLY DO
MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
NAM PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY AS COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/GFS...RESULTING IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5
TO 10 C ACROSS THE CWA. WHEREAS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW 10 TO 15 C
ACROSS THE CWA. SO...WHETHER THE CAP IS WEAK ENOUGH OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THE CAP IS YET TO
BE SEEN. HOWEVER...IF EITHER OF THE TWO HAPPEN...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO RAPID AND STRONG CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL JUST BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BETWEEN IT AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW TO THE WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND LIS BETWEEN -8 AND -10 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE CAPPED OFF...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
LOOKING A BIT MORE IFFY AT THIS TIME AS H7 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16 DEGREE RANGE. THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING A STRONGER
CAP FRIDAY NIGHT VS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A DRY
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL
INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE STORMS...HAVE STUCK WITH
JUST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF SITES FOR NOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 190856
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING IS LIMITED TO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT IS HARD TO PICK OUT THE INDIVIDUAL WAVES ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AND
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DOES RESULT IN MOST CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED TODAY...SO
NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN GENERAL THUNDER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM. STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE TRANSPORTING GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD HOWEVER...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE
RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S TODAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.
A STRONG 40+ KT LLJ SETS UP OVERNIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION...THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. STORMS
MAY BE STRONG OVERNIGHT AS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE EXTENT OF THE
LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL INFLUENCE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES. HOWEVER...BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT SWINGING ACROSS OUR CWA. CAPE
VALUES ARE RISING INTO THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ALONG
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING 0-6 SHEAR...THERE
CERTAINLY IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE
INHIBITING FACTORS HOWEVER WILL BE RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS AND 700
MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND 13 C ACROSS THE CENTRAL CWA. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ON
THE EDGE OF THE CAP ACROSS THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CWA.
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW REORGANIZES WITH THE LOW CENTER
INTENSIFYING OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODEL
DIFFERENCES LIMIT FORECASTER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. NOT ONLY DO
MODELS DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT THE
NAM PUSHES THE UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD MUCH MORE QUICKLY AS COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF/GFS...RESULTING IN 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 5
TO 10 C ACROSS THE CWA. WHEREAS THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW 10 TO 15 C
ACROSS THE CWA. SO...WHETHER THE CAP IS WEAK ENOUGH OR WHETHER
THERE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THE CAP IS YET TO
BE SEEN. HOWEVER...IF EITHER OF THE TWO HAPPEN...THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO RAPID AND STRONG CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL JUST BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST
FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP BETWEEN IT AND
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW TO THE WEST WILL
EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD...TRACKING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY. ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING OVER THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 4000 J/KG AND LIS BETWEEN -8 AND -10 ACROSS
THE CWA. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE CAP FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LOOKS LIKE
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE CAPPED OFF...BUT THE STRONG INSTABILITY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE CAP ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY NIGHT IS
LOOKING A BIT MORE IFFY AT THIS TIME AS H7 TEMPS RISE INTO THE +14
TO +16 DEGREE RANGE. THE PREVIOUS RUNS WERE SHOWING A STRONGER
CAP FRIDAY NIGHT VS SATURDAY NIGHT...SO FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE
OPTED TO STICK WITH HIGH CHC POPS FOR BOTH PERIODS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH...THEN IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY SEE A DRY
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION.
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 190530 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS
THE REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS
WOULD IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM THE
JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 190139 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
839 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP CHC THUNDER WEST
RIVER FOR LATE TNT. UPDATES OUT SOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM
THE JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 182330 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM
THE JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 182022
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS CURRENTLY CONDITIONS
ARE FAIRLY STABLE ACROSS THE CWA. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE ROCKIES THIS WEEK AND
ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
TONIGHT...GREATEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
SD WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF IS PROVIDING AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO TSTORM FORMATION. THE LLJ INCREASES TO
AROUND 25 KTS THIS EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
COMBINED WITH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE AND LIMITED CIN...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA FROM THE BLACK
HILLS.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL HELP KICK OFF
SOME STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SEEMS TO BE SOMEWHAT
OVERDONE THE NAM DOES PLACE 4000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE EAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH A LLJ INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KTS AND
ALMOST NO CAP STORMS SHOULD EASILY BEGIN TO FIRE OFF AS SOON AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.
THURSDAY...THIS IS WHEN THE FORECAST BECOME MUCH MORE CHALLENGING.
MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD
IMPACT THE AREAS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY AND ANY INHIBITION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE EAST STILL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
SEEING SEVERE STORMS. H7 TEMPS ON THE GFS FROM +10 TO +13 FROM
THE JAMES RIVER EAST AND OVER 3000 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A 30 KT TO
40 KT LLJ MAY LEAD TO AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER ACTIVE TIME PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SFC LOW WILL ALSO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER SD/NEB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS COULD
REACH AND EXCEED 70 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
700 MB TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +14 TO +16 ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...SLIGHTLY COOLER FARTHER WEST. THIS CAP SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS
CONVECTION GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY REAL STRONG SHORTWAVE DURING THE
DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL A FEW DEGREES AS
WEAK IMPULSE PULLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS. WITH LOW LEVEL JET CRANKING UP...COULD SEE BETTER STORM
CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WILL SEE STORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS WELL AS SFC LOW LINGERS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AS WELL. THE STRONGER UPPER WAVE FINALLY
KICKS EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A SFC FRONT SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND BRING IN
DRIER AIR...AND ALSO A WEAK SFC HIGH MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
EVEN THOUGH SMALL CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY...IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TSRA TO MAKE IT TO THE KPIR TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT AS
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD. WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAKES IT TO KPIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SPARSE LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS TIME. TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY NEAR KATY. BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE TAFS MAY INCLUDE
MENTION OF TSRA.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 181750 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY IS KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIRLY
QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS. INSTABILITY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING...BUT EASTWARD
PROPAGATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST RIVER TONIGHT. HI- RES
MODELS REFLECT THIS THINKING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS CAN MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TSRA TO MAKE IT TO THE KPIR TAF SITE LATE TONIGHT AS
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION PUSHES EAST INTO CENTRAL SD. WHETHER OR
NOT IT MAKES IT TO KPIR IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE SPARSE LATE TONIGHT SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS AT
THIS TIME. TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY NEAR KATY. BUT AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS AFFECTING THE
TAF SITE IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT BUT FUTURE TAFS MAY INCLUDE
MENTION OF TSRA.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE/TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TMT
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 181540 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1040 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TODAY IS KEEPING THE WEATHER FAIRLY
QUIET. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE DAYTIME FORECAST PERIOD. MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS. INSTABILITY IS STILL
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN SD THIS EVENING...BUT EASTWARD
PROPAGATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WEST RIVER TONIGHT. HI- RES
MODELS REFLECT THIS THINKING.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS CAN MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE KPIR
TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 181125 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA. MODELS
ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS CAN MAKE
IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION
UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE KPIR
TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 180853
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AS WELL AS MLCAPE
VALUES TO RISING INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. NO SIGNIFICANT
SYNOPTIC FORCING TO SPEAK OF...BUT IF ANYTHING GETS GOING IN THE
BLACK HILL REGION...IT MAY PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA.
MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND 30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SO IF STORMS
CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST...THERE CERTAINLY IS THE POSSIBLY OF
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA.
THE LLJ INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
ABOUT 30 KTS NOSING INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA. THIS MAY INDUCE
ELEVATED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING WILL BE A LITTLE TOO
EARLY AND HEATING WILL BE LIMITED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND A 30 TO 40
KT LLJ JET AGAIN SETS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
CONTINUE TO RISE HOWEVER...AND WITH THE CHANCE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION...IT SEEMS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE LIMITED AFTERNOON HEATING AND AN INCREASING
CAP. LEFT THE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
ON THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
TRACK EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE
NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL SEE A DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EAST...WITH CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 5000 J/KG
FRIDAY...AND BETWEEN 3500-4500 J/KG ON SATURDAY. BULK SHEAR
VALUES WILL BE THE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. HOWEVER...CURRENT
H7 TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE +12 TO +16 DEGREE RANGE
ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE TOO MUCH OF A CAP TO OVERCOME.
THE CAP BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY...WHICH MAY MAKE THAT A
BETTER DAY TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN CWA. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TNT IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 180534 AAC
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.
A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE TEMPS
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.
THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TNT IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH
TUESDAY.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 180213 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
913 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN ACTIVITY
SLIDING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE FORECAST
LOOKS OKAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.
A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.
THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 172329 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.
A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.
THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 172017
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY AM
A WELL MIXED...WEAKLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDES OVERHEAD
TODAY...WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG CAPE. A FEW STORMS MAY POP OVER
FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA...CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. WITH LOSS OF HEATING...STORMS WILL
DISSIPATE. STABLE/COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR STABLE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY WITH AND UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY...WITH A FETCH LINKING THE
REGION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH MUCH
DEPENDS ON TIMING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS ALSO GOING TO PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS AS MODEL MIXED
LAYER DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO THE LOW 60S...HOWEVER IF TIMING IS OFF
WE MAY CAP BEFORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPS. IF ALL GOES
TO PLAN...WILL BE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2000 J/KG CAPE UNDER A FAIRLY
WEAK SHEAR PROFILE.
A SECOND BOUT OF STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AM AS A 30 TO
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET FORMS OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA...AND WARMING
IN THE MID LEVELS LEADS TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AN ACTIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD
OPENS WITH AN EXITING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THE SFC A TROF WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE TROF IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
WILL BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH H7 TEMPS ONLY AROUND 12 TO
13 DEGREES...A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS. BY FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ADVECT IN FROM THE SOUTH HELPING TO CAP OFF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH PRECIP CHANCES PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE
TEMPS ALOFT WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL.
THE WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WORLD TO PIN
POINT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR CONVECTION THOUGH POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STUCK CLOSE TO ALLBLEND AGAIN WITH
MAINLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED UP ON FRIDAY WITH ANTICIPATED
WAA. CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE FORECAST. REACHING THE
LOWER 90S WILL NOT BE OUTSIDE THE REALM OF PROBABILITY.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL HOVER IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S DURING THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO
KABR/KATY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TUESDAY BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES
AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 171728 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS TO COVER MORE OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE INSTABILITY TOPS 500 J/KG CAPE. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 00Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC
POPS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO
KABR/KATY BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TUESDAY BASED ON MOISTURE PROFILES
AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 171607 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1107 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ATMOSPHERE IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE TODAY...THOUGH WITH LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. HAVE EXPANDED LOW POPS TO COVER MORE OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE INSTABILITY TOPS 500 J/KG CAPE. NO OTHER
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 00Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC
POPS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN AREA OF LOW CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL DROP OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KMBG AND KABR. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST...HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED TAFS FOR 5 OR 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 171141 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
641 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAVE SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 00Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 09Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF
THIS SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC
POPS DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
AN AREA OF LOW CIGS AROUND 1500 FEET WILL DROP OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AFFECTING KMBG AND KABR. SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST...HAVE INCLUDED THEM IN THE
TWO AFOREMENTIONED TAFS FOR 5 OR 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...BUT AT THIS TIME DO
NOT LOOK TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 170838
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.
A MOISTURE GRADIENT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...TO
EASTERN NEBRASKA...ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EXTREME SW CWA THIS
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE CWA. WEAK
INSTABILITY ON THE CAA SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN STEEP LOW LEVEL RATES. HI-RES MODELS PLUS THE NAM12 HAS SHOWN
WEAK COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY REACHING SISSETON BETWEEN 21-03Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH SUNSET WELL AFTER 0Z...THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST 3Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THE HI-RES NMM/ARW...PLUS THE NAM12 AND THE NSSL WRF ALL SUGGEST
ACCAS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AROUND 9Z TONIGHT. NOT REAL
SURE WHAT THE FOCUS MECHANISM WILL BE...SO WILL LEAVE TIME PERIOD
DRY FOR NOW.
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
ON WEDNESDAY. THE SREF SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORT WAVE IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SO WILL HAVE SCHC TO CHC POPS
DURING THE DAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS WHEN THE PERIOD
STARTS...AND LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED EAST AS A BROAD UPPER LOW SPINS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN TRACKS TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE
END OF THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...WITH NO CLEAR CUT TIME FRAME WHERE
THERE WILL NOT BE ENERGY AFFECTING THE CWA.
AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD...THEN BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES...THE REGION WILL
REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. THE BEST INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA...THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG WITH LIS IN THE -9 TO -13 RANGE
WILL DEVELOP...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPRAWLED SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN CWA. THE CAP LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
HINDERING FACTOR HOWEVER AS THE CURRENT MODELS ARE SHOWING H7
TEMPS BETWEEN +11 AND +15. EVEN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S...THIS CAP MAY BE A
BIT TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY WHEN THE
TIME PERIOD GETS CLOSER.
WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG A SLOWING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TOUCH OFF A
FEW SHOWERS OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OR AROUND KPIR MONDAY
MORNING POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED SOME
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 170527 AAB
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A FEW STORMS HAVE FIRED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN ABERDEEN
AND SISSETON. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MAINLY SKINNY CAPE AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR.
THE AREAS NOT EFFECTED AT ISSUANCE TIME CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE SO
GOING POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...SO TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 50S IS REASONABLE.
ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS SIMILAR TO TODAY ON MONDAY...IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES WITH SKINNY CAPE
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THANKS TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A ROUND OF HIGH BASED STORMS IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT TO LOW POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SFC WEATHER AS A
LEE SIDE TROF THAT SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE. A 25 TO 30
KT LLJ WED EVENING AND THU EVENING WILL HELP PRODUCE CONVECTION
OVER THE REGION. THE TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA
FRI NIGHT. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.
OVER THE WEEKEND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE OF THE SHORTWAVES. STORMS MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
AND AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ACCURATELY PIN POINTED AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES COULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG A SLOWING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO TOUCH OFF A
FEW SHOWERS OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OR AROUND KPIR MONDAY
MORNING POSSIBLY INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. INTRODUCED SOME
VICINITY SHOWER MENTION FOR NOW.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 170127 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
827 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT FIRED ALONG A SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
HAS DISSIPATED. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD QUIETLY CONTINUE TO SLIP
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. LOWS IN THE 50S STILL
LOOK GOOD.
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM
A FEW STORMS HAVE FIRED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN ABERDEEN
AND SISSETON. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MAINLY SKINNY CAPE AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR.
THE AREAS NOT EFFECTED AT ISSUANCE TIME CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE SO
GOING POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S IS REASONABLE.
ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS SIMILAR TO TODAY ON MONDAY...IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES WITH SKINNY CAPE
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THANKS TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A ROUND OF HIGH BASED STORMS IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT TO LOW POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SFC WEATHER AS A LEE
SIDE TROF THAT SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE. A 25 TO 30 KT
LLJ WED EVENING AND THU EVENING WILL HELP PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION. THE TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.
OVER THE WEEKEND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE OF THE SHORTWAVES. STORMS MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
AND AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ACCURATELY PIN POINTED AS THE
WEEKEND APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 161951
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
251 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AM
A FEW STORMS HAVE FIRED ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON...BETWEEN ABERDEEN
AND SISSETON. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER...WITH MAINLY SKINNY CAPE AND LIMITED WIND SHEAR.
THE AREAS NOT EFFECTED AT ISSUANCE TIME CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE SO
GOING POPS AROUND 40 PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE. LACK OF UPPER FORCING
AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS STORMS WILL DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT...SO
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 50S IS REASONABLE.
ATMOSPHERE RESPONDS SIMILAR TO TODAY ON MONDAY...IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA COUNTIES WITH SKINNY CAPE
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S THANKS TO COLD AIR
ALOFT AS WEAK UPPER LOW DRIFTING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY LEAD TO A ROUND OF HIGH BASED STORMS IN
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS LACKING SO WILL LIMIT TO LOW POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL PUSH TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL HAVE LITTLE SETTLING EFFECT ON THE SFC WEATHER AS A LEE
SIDE TROF THAT SETS UP ON WEDNESDAY WILL DOMINATE. A 25 TO 30 KT
LLJ WED EVENING AND THU EVENING WILL HELP PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER
THE REGION. THE TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO MINNESOTA FRI
NIGHT. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WED
THROUGH FRI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SYSTEM.
OVER THE WEEKEND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND
BECAUSE OF THE SHORTWAVES. STORMS MAY END UP BEING MORE ISOLATED
AND AREAL COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ACCURATELY PIN POINTED AS THE WEEKEND
APPROACHES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE COTEAU IN THE VICINTY OF KATY. HAVE NOT ADDED A VCTS MENTION
AS YET SINCE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS. TIMING WOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 161728 AAA
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NAM12 IS SUGGESTING MU-CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE EXCEEDS 600 J/KG WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE
OF AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL. THAT SAID...THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM MAY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...WITH BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID...WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH NONE OF THEM LOOK
TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL JUST BE EXITING TO THE EAST WHEN THE
PERIOD STARTS...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA...LOOKING TO JUST EXIT THE CWA AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL BE TYPICAL OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
LIKE THE TWO DAYS WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP MAY HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST STICK CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND WHICH KEEPS A SCHC/CHC POP IN MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KPIR. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME TSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE COTEAU IN THE VICINTY OF KATY. HAVE NOT ADDED A VCTS MENTION
AS YET SINCE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO AREAL
COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS. TIMING WOULD BE BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
000
FXUS63 KABR 161551
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1051 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING INVERSION HAS RAPIDLY MIXED OUT...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE MID 70S ALREADY.
SURPRISINGLY...DEWPOINTS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT...EITHER A
FEATURE OF MORE EFFECTIVE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...ENTRAINMENT OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. MODELS STILL PUSH
HIGHER MIXED LAYER DEWPOINT AIRMASS INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER
REMAIN SKEPTICAL THAT WE WILL GO MUCH PAST 60F. THE COMBINATION OF
WEAK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN STRENGTH
OF ANY STORMS THAT FIRE BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS BEST INSTABILITY
IS EVIDENT IN THE SEVERE STORMS JUST ACROSS THE MO. MESOSCALE
MODELS START STORMS OFF AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROGRESSING TO THE NORTHEAST
CWA WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEAST MOTION...THOUGH ITS DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN A SPECIFIC FEATURE THAT THESE MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO AS
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS AS SUCH...NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANCE.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NAM12 IS SUGGESTING MU-CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE EXCEEDS 600 J/KG WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE
OF AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL. THAT SAID...THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM MAY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.
A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...WITH BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID...WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH NONE OF THEM LOOK
TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL JUST BE EXITING TO THE EAST WHEN THE
PERIOD STARTS...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA...LOOKING TO JUST EXIT THE CWA AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL BE TYPICAL OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
LIKE THE TWO DAYS WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP MAY HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST STICK CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND WHICH KEEPS A SCHC/CHC POP IN MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BEGINNING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA THIS MORNING...THEN ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DID GO WITH A
VCTS MENTION AT KPIR WHERE THE CHANCES ARE BEST...WITH JUST A VCSH
MENTION AT THE OTHER THREE TAF SITES.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
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