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000
FXUS63 KABR 311513 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Made some minor adjustments to the timing of possible rain showers
across the north...with nothing expected until the afternoon
hours. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms continue to exit across our
west central MN Counties early this morning. Dry weather will then
be common for much of the daylight hours today. The only exception
will likely be across the N tier counties, closer to the nearing
500MB low currently along the MT/ND border which will be sliding
across ND through tonight. At the same time a secondary cold
front will  be sliding W-E across the CWA this afternoon. MU CAPE
values are minimal at around 500J/Kg, and moisture is limited. Will
still increase winds quite a bit behind the frontal boundary, which
gets up to just below Wind Advisory criteria. The sfc low over
central ND around 21Z will exit into MN overnight, allowing a ridge
of high pressure to slowly build across the western and central
Dakotas. The sfc high will be directly overhead Wednesday evening
into early Thursday. With WAA returning, temperatures should rise
back into the mid 70s to low 80s Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A positive PNA pattern appears as if it will persist during the long
term forecast. About the only chance for meaningful pcpn will be
Thursday night into Friday. A decent looking wave is expected to
track southeast over the region.  Moderate mlcapes...moderate llj
and strong winds at the mid levels should support some decent storms
although llm will likely be somewhat lacking. Cold air aloft may
support lingering showers in the east on Saturday.  The rest of the
weekend looks dry.  Temperatures should average out near normal for
the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Night) Issued
at 630 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Breezy southwest winds in the 15 to 30 knot range can be
expected this afternoon...along with some light rain showers
across the northern portion of the CWA.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 310745
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
245 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Rain showers and a few thunderstorms continue to exit across our
west central MN Counties early this morning. Dry weather will then
be common for much of the daylight hours today. The only exception
will likely be across the N tier counties, closer to the nearing
500MB low currently along the MT/ND border which will be sliding
across ND through tonight. At the same time a secondary cold
front will  be sliding W-E across the CWA this afternoon. MU CAPE
values are minimal at around 500J/Kg, and moisture is limited. Will
still increase winds quite a bit behind the frontal boundary, which
gets up to just below Wind Advisory criteria. The sfc low over
central ND around 21Z will exit into MN overnight, allowing a ridge
of high pressure to slowly build across the western and central
Dakotas. The sfc high will be directly overhead Wednesday evening
into early Thursday. With WAA returning, temperatures should rise
back into the mid 70s to low 80s Thursday.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A positive PNA pattern appears as if it will persist during the long
term forecast. About the only chance for meaningful pcpn will be
Thursday night into Friday. A decent looking wave is expected to
track southeast over the region.  Moderate mlcapes...moderate llj
and strong winds at the mid levels should support some decent storms
although llm will likely be somewhat lacking. Cold air aloft may
support lingering showers in the east on Saturday.  The rest of the
weekend looks dry.  Temperatures should average out near normal for
the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Vfr conditions are expected through tonight and Tuesday. Breezy
southwest winds are expected on Tuesday with some sct to ocnl bkn
mixed layer clouds. There may be some showers move into the MBG area
later in the afternoon and evening.


&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 310514 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1214 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 824 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Line of storms moving east this evening moving into less favorable
environment. Have not had many severe reports this evening.
Cancelled the western part of the watch this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 658 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Storms now beginning to develop across western and central portions
of the state in association with a cold front. Models are in good
agreement that this activity will line out and track eastward across
the state through the evening and early overnight hours. MUCAPE has
increased to 3000+ J/KG across the Missouri river area...along with
some increase in low level shear. Expect the line of storms will
have the potential to produce large hail and gusty winds through its
life span late this afternoon into tonight. The low pressure system
will swing northward late tonight with some precipitation on the
back side of it possibly affecting the northwestern CWA Tuesday
afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the upper 50s east. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the
mid 60s northwest to the mid 70s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

The upper low is expected to continue to pull out of the region on
Wednesday. In its wake, cold air advection will continue with the
coolest temps of the week. Winds will be breezy from the northwest.

The trend of the western CONUS ridge rebounding through the period
looks good. This will leave most of the region under northwest flow,
with warmest temps in the west, trending cooler east. The threat of
thunderstorms in the northwest flow are too tricky to time at this
moment, but I would expect some thunderstorms possible later this
week and weekend. Pops will remain low at this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Vfr conditions are expected through tonight and Tuesday. Breezy
southwest winds are expected on Tuesday with some sct to ocnl bkn
mixed layer clouds. There may be some showers move into the MBG area
later in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 291904 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
204 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The models show excellent agreement in the short term with the
weather features affecting the CWA. For today, surface high pressure
ridging will build into the region giving us a brief break from the
wet weather. Expect mostly sunny skies today with highs right around
80 degrees. For tonight and early Monday, a warm front returning out
west along with mid level instability will result in scattered
elevated thunderstorms developing in southern SD and lifting
northeast through the night into early Monday affecting our CWA. On
Monday and Tuesday, the models all show an upper level low pressure
trough dropping in from the northwest and intensifying over our
region. This will bring in increasing moisture and instability to
the region along with increasing wind shear. As deep layer lift
moves in with this trough along with a surface cold front pushing
east interacting with good shear and instability...numerous
thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and evening.
Some of these could be severe. These storms should line out as they
move east through Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the upper
low spinning over the region on Tuesday along with cooler west to
northwest winds, steep lapse rates, and weak cape, expect more
showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly in the afternoon.
Temperatures over the next few days across the CWA will be mostly in
the upper 70s to the lower 80s, cooling down on Tuesday into the
upper 60s to the lower 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The 00z models continue to show a pattern evolution toward positive
PNA over the conus. At the beginning of the period a decent mid
level low/trof will be migrating east across the region as
moderately strong ridge builds over the western CONUS. Wrap around
showers may affect the north and eastern CWA on Wednesday, but
overall it should be dry for most of the remainder of the period as
a dry airmass flows into the region via cool sfc high dropping south
out of Canada. A weak system may bring some convection to the region
late in the week but confidence in timing of this is low at the
moment given model differences. Temperatures will start the period
off cooler than normal...but will trend toward normal or even above
by the end of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 201 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area this afternoon and
tonight. A frontal boundary will approach the area from the west
late tonight into Monday morning...bringing showers and
thunderstorms to the CWA late in the TAF period.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin





000
FXUS63 KABR 282357 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

see below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Surface low continues to spin over southeastern South
Dakota/northwestern Iowa...with clouds and precipitation wrapping
around it over portions of the CWA. Storms that developed earlier
along a wind shift axis produced a brief landspout near the Bowdle
area. Things have quieted down since then...but parts of the
southern CWA may still be primed into the late afternoon and early
evening for additional funnel clouds. This activity will gradually
come to an end tonight as the low pressure system tracks northeast
and away from the region. High pressure will settle in on
Sunday...with a mostly dry and warmer day expected.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the mid 50s east. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower
80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The main focus of forecast package is the strong upper level wave
that will affect the region Monday and Tuesday. While there is some
model difference on timing and strength of the wave, the general
consensus is the area will be impacted by a chance of severe
thunderstorm Monday afternoon west and shifting east into the
evening. The models area also indicating elevated capes great than
3000 j/kg. a class pattern for a severe weather event.

There could be some lingering showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday,
but cooler temps look like a good bet, with perhaps some wrap around
instability showers/thunderstorms possible as the upper low tracks
across North Dakota.

The upper ridge looks to being to rebound over the western CONUS
through the period next weekend bringing a warmup to the temps with
a minimal chances of storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

There continue to be a couple of clusters of showers and
thunderstorms working over the CWA presently. One area of showers
and storms extends from near KMBG down to near KPIR. The other
area of showers and storms is located over far northeast South
Dakota, east of KABR and north of KATY. These areas of
precipitation should diminish over the next few hours, leaving the
rest of the taf valid period dry.

Given the amount of precipitation that has fallen over the past
48 hours, plus what some of the numerical model output/guidance is
hinting at overnight tonight throughout the James River valley and
points east, have opted to introduce some fog mention into the
KABR TAF for starters tonight. The KATY TAF could end up seeing
some fog mention, too, before tonight is history. Surface high
pressure is trying to build into the forecast area, signaling a
switch to light west-northwest winds by morning. Once the
convective debris cirrus cloudiness dissipates later tonight,
mostly clear skies combined with relatively light winds and plenty
of surface/boundary layer moisture will promote the potential for
fog formation.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Dorn





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