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000
FXUS63 KABR 201132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 201132 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
632 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.





&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING FAIRLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL SD. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR
MARGINAL FOR WIND ADVISORY AND MAY EVEN GET INTO LOW END CRITERIA
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS. NO ADVISORY AT THIS TIME
AS IT APPEARS HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR THOUGH AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. OTHERWISE...WILL BE WATCHING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST. NICE MID LEVEL JET MAX MOVES
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...WHICH LEADS
TO FAIRLY MEAGER MLCAPE VALUES. ALTHOUGH...0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
MOVING INTO MN. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS LINE MAY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING THE LINE OF
STORMS MOVING OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT VARY A BIT IN ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT INTO THE NORTHEAST CWA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
FORCING AND FORWARD MOTION OF THE FRONT...EXPECTING STRONG WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. BEST AREA THOUGH
IS ACROSS RED RIVER VALLEY AND ON INTO MN...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS SNEAK INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM IS QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
TERM COOLER IS USED LOOSELY AS TEMPS WILL STILL BE RATHER MILD
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S...JUST A BIT COOLER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SFC TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. STUCK WITH ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH WED MORNING. FOR REFERENCE THOUGH THE
0Z GFS IS A LITTLE DRIER AND DOES NOT CARRY THE PRECIP AS FAR
NORTH AS THE ECMWF AND THE ALLBLEND. THIS MAY BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH IF IT BECOMES A PERSISTENT TREND. BY WED NIGHT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200526 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK LOOK
GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 200526 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK LOOK
GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 192336 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK LOOK
GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 192336 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
636 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL
LOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK LOOK
GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ON SATURDAY
WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 192042
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK
LOOK GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 192042
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK
LOOK GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191724
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
212...TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THANKS TO A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 10 AND 2KFT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO LITTLE MORE
THEN A SPRINKLE HOWEVER. ALSO GETTING SOME STRATUS AND FOG TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE JAMES VALLEY AND COTEAU
BREAK INTO MORE SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE TRANSITION IS GOING
SLOWER THEN EXPECTED SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF ABERDEEN.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191724
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
212...TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THANKS TO A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 10 AND 2KFT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO LITTLE MORE
THEN A SPRINKLE HOWEVER. ALSO GETTING SOME STRATUS AND FOG TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE JAMES VALLEY AND COTEAU
BREAK INTO MORE SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE TRANSITION IS GOING
SLOWER THEN EXPECTED SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF ABERDEEN.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191459 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
959 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
212...TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THANKS TO A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 10 AND 2KFT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO LITTLE MORE
THEN A SPRINKLE HOWEVER. ALSO GETTING SOME STRATUS AND FOG TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE JAMES VALLEY AND COTEAU
BREAK INTO MORE SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE TRANSITION IS GOING
SLOWER THEN EXPECTED SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF ABERDEEN.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A DECK OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA AFFECTING KABR AND KATY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
NEAR KATY WHERE CHANNELING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL KEEP
THE GUSTS GOING UNTIL EVENING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191459 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
959 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED/WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS CONTINUE NORTH OF HIGHWAY
212...TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER TROF AXIS. THANKS TO A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN 10 AND 2KFT...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO LITTLE MORE
THEN A SPRINKLE HOWEVER. ALSO GETTING SOME STRATUS AND FOG TRAPPED
UNDER THE INVERSION. AS WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE JAMES VALLEY AND COTEAU
BREAK INTO MORE SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS...BUT THE TRANSITION IS GOING
SLOWER THEN EXPECTED SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON EAST OF ABERDEEN.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A DECK OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA AFFECTING KABR AND KATY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
NEAR KATY WHERE CHANNELING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL KEEP
THE GUSTS GOING UNTIL EVENING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191137 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A DECK OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA AFFECTING KABR AND KATY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
NEAR KATY WHERE CHANNELING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL KEEP
THE GUSTS GOING UNTIL EVENING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191137 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.





&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A DECK OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS HAS ADVECTED INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CWA AFFECTING KABR AND KATY THIS MORNING. THE STRATUS WILL
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15
TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT
NEAR KATY WHERE CHANNELING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST WILL KEEP
THE GUSTS GOING UNTIL EVENING.






&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 190838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190838
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
338 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH EAST ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SD AND ARE APPROACHING THE JAMES VALLEY. INTENSITY IS
WEAKENING THOUGH AS EVERYTHING MOVES EAST. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO MATCH CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL ISSUE PRE
FIRST PERIOD ZFP TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES UP THROUGH
12Z.

FOR LATER TODAY...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION BUT
MODELS REALLY DONT SHOW ANYTHING FOR PRECIP ANYMORE THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONFINE POPS TO JUST THE MORNING HOURS AND LOOK
FOR DRYING CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND FAVORED WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITHIN THERMAL RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN THIS WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS A BIT.
ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THE COOL HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST MON NIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
OFF THE ROCKIES. THE SFC LOW WILL HELP PULL UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BRINGING DRIER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 190041 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
741 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY. STRATUS DEVELOPING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE
TNT...EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THE PREDICTED
LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190041 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
741 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS OKAY. STRATUS DEVELOPING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY UP INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS LATE
TNT...EARLY FRIDAY. WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THE PREDICTED
LOWS LOOK PRETTY GOOD. NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 182313 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
613 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 182313 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
613 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL BE REPLACED BY A DECK OF IFR
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH LATE TNT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN ON FRIDAY
SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS THE WINDS TO WESTERLY AND HELPS USHER OUT THE LOW
CLOUDS. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 182023
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
323 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN BEHIND. UNTIL
THEN FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STAY
TIGHT AND WINDS TO STAY UP MAINLY IN THE EAST AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...EXPECT STRATUS CLOUDS TO FORM MAINLY
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 60 TO 65
DEGREES ACROSS THE CWA. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
SLIDING INTO THE REGION...A JET STREAK WILL FAVOR UPPER LEVEL LIFT
OVER OUR REGION INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN SOUTHWEST...WEST
AND THEN NORTHWEST INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES.
THE FOCUS/LOW LEVEL LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE WEAK.
THEREFORE...WITH ONLY WEAK LOW AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT ALONG WITH
WARM AIR ALOFT/CAPPING...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MAY HAVE TO TAKE THEM OUT COMPLETELY IN LATER FORECASTS AS ALL OF
THE MODELS WERE ONLY SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY QPF. EXPECT THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
BETTER LIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO BE A VERY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN AS CAA
DOMINATES WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY. THE MIXING LAYER WILL BE DEEPENING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THEREFORE...EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE CWA ON SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT MAY END UP
BRINGING SOME SHOWERS FAR EAST IN OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME...LEFT
IT DRY. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL COOL OFF AS WINDS FALL OFF UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TRICKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO SET UP NEXT WEEK PAST
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CAA IS IN
PLAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER CIRCULATION OUT OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS SUPPOSED TO BE CUT OFF FROM THE REST OF THE
POLAR WESTERLIES JET STREAM WINDS AND SLOWLY MEANDER ITS WAY OVER
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS IS A DYING/OCCLUDED UPPER CIRCULATION
THAT SHOULD BE SPINNING DOWN OVER TIME WITH LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE
PRESSURE REFLECTION. NEVERTHELESS...ALLBLEND CONTINUES TO
POPULATE EXTENDED POP GRIDS WITH CHANCE AND SLT CHANCE
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION. AND...GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP OF RETURN FLOW AND NOTABLE 850HPA MOISTURE STREAMING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...SEEMS THE TABLE WILL BE SET FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES
GO...SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED WITH A SLOW
AND STEADY WARM UP RIGHT ON THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ON SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT
ALONG WITH SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT IS HIGHLIGHTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS BEING IFR...FROM LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS TO THE TAFS...UNTIL EXPECTED COLD
FROPA WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST SWITCHES WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND STARTS DRYING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY LOOK RATHER SMALL...SO TAFS REMAIN VOID
OF PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
109 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. THUS...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HUGGING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IT TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ON SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT
ALONG WITH SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT IS HIGHLIGHTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS BEING IFR...FROM LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS TO THE TAFS...UNTIL EXPECTED COLD
FROPA WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST SWITCHES WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND STARTS DRYING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY LOOK RATHER SMALL...SO TAFS REMAIN VOID
OF PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
109 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. THUS...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HUGGING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IT TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.


&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ON SOUTHERLY
BREEZES OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID REFRESH OUTPUT
ALONG WITH SREF PROBABILITIES OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OUTPUT IS HIGHLIGHTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS BEING IFR...FROM LOW STRATUS CLOUDS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS
SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED IFR CIGS TO THE TAFS...UNTIL EXPECTED COLD
FROPA WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST SWITCHES WINDS AROUND TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND STARTS DRYING OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
SCOURING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY LOOK RATHER SMALL...SO TAFS REMAIN VOID
OF PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181601 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1101 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. THUS...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HUGGING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IT TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...ONE FROM THE EAST AND ONE FROM THE SOUTH.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH KPIR AND KATY AS THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO SEE THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181601 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1101 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. THUS...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EASTWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO...LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG HUGGING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS THIS
MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT IT TO BECOME BREEZY/WINDY ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.




.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.



&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...ONE FROM THE EAST AND ONE FROM THE SOUTH.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH KPIR AND KATY AS THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO SEE THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING...ONE FROM THE EAST AND ONE FROM THE SOUTH.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP AT BOTH KPIR AND KATY AS THESE ARE THE
MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO SEE THE STRATUS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180907
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
407 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180907
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
407 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRATUS DECK ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL MN AND SHOULD BE ENTERING BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES
BY SUNRISE. VSBYS HAVE GONE DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL MN AS WELL SO HAVE
ADDED FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AND MAKE CHANGES AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING SFC TROUGH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THIS EVENING...THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREAD EAST OVER THE CWA ON FRIDAY. BEST PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT
LOOK TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS. ON FRIDAY CHANCES LOOK
RATHER SLIM AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED DUE TO
THE VERY WARM TEMPS ALOFT. WILL CARRY JUST SLIGHT CHANCES ON
FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD STILL BE MILD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE TIME
PERIOD...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY.

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE ECMWF DIGS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND HAS A STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
THE ECMWF INDICATING PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS WITH THE SURROUNDING CWAS AND PUT SOME SMALL POPS IN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA ON TUESDAY CLOSER TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE PERIOD DRY UNTIL
THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S...TO THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE
DIFFERENCES COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST US WILL ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION
AND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS
IN LATER FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER
60S TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER
60S SHOWING UP FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180526 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1226 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING
30 MPH AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S...TO THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE
DIFFERENCES COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A
CLOSED UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL
PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST US WILL ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION
AND TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS
IN LATER FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER
60S TO THE MID 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER
60S SHOWING UP FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER TONIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180134 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
834 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180134 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
834 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS OKAY SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS EVENING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 172304 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 172304 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
604 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 172054
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ALSO...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICK UP AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 172054
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SCT
SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATER TONIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO
THE LOWER 80S.

A LLJ DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A STRONG INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB. TEMPS AT 700 MB WILL WARM
THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING +12C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD CAP
OFF CONVECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BREAK DOWN THE CAP WITH
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH ALL OF THE MODELS. THE DIFFERENCES
COME WITH THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM BETWEEN
THE EC AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT ALONG THE NORTHWEST US COAST WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE CA COAST. THESE WILL PROGRESS
EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WESTERN US BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL
ALSO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION AND TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HAVE IT DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...THE CA UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL OPEN UP AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MAY HAVE TO ADD IN SOME WEATHER/POPS WITH THIS IN LATER FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH MAINLY UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. THE EC WAS SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY MID TO UPPER 60S SHOWING UP
FOR ABR AND ATY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ALSO...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICK UP AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171746 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1246 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...FOG SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF FOG ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY. ABR VSBY
DROPPED BELOW 1SM FOR A SHORT TIME IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. OAKES ND
DOWN TO 3/4SM AS WELL. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON WITH THESE WINDS BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 60 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WITH A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR STRONG
SFC CONVERGENCE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FINALLY PUSH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA...A
WEAKENING CAP AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON
TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ALSO...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICK UP AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171746 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1246 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...FOG SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF FOG ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY. ABR VSBY
DROPPED BELOW 1SM FOR A SHORT TIME IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. OAKES ND
DOWN TO 3/4SM AS WELL. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON WITH THESE WINDS BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 60 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WITH A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR STRONG
SFC CONVERGENCE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST.



.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FINALLY PUSH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA...A
WEAKENING CAP AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON
TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH...DO EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AT ABR AND ATY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ALSO...EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PICK UP AT
ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AND THE MIXING LAYER DEEPENS.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171549 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...FOG SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF FOG ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY. ABR VSBY
DROPPED BELOW 1SM FOR A SHORT TIME IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. OAKES ND
DOWN TO 3/4SM AS WELL. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON WITH THESE WINDS BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 60 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WITH A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR STRONG
SFC CONVERGENCE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FINALLY PUSH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA...A
WEAKENING CAP AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON
TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 171549 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1049 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE A BIT WARMER THIS MORNING
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. WITHIN THE PAST HOUR...FOG SATELLITE
SHOWING SOME SUBTLE HINTS OF FOG ALONG THE JAMES VALLEY. ABR VSBY
DROPPED BELOW 1SM FOR A SHORT TIME IN SHALLOW GROUND FOG. OAKES ND
DOWN TO 3/4SM AS WELL. HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT A TRANQUIL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY
SIMILAR HIGHS TO TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY/WINDY BY AFTERNOON WITH THESE WINDS BRINGING AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO
APPROACH 60 DEGREES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WITH A LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY OR STRONG
SFC CONVERGENCE...NOT LOOKING AT ANY WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS IN
THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WEAK ENERGY WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ZONAL FLOW
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FLOW THEN BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
FINALLY PUSH OVER THE PLAINS STATES ON TUESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA...A
WEAKENING CAP AND WEAK INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST ON
TUESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...BUT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







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