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000
FXUS63 KABR 200856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT TODAY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON TUESDAY GIVEN
THE GUSTY WINDS AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. CURRENT FORECAST RH
VALUES REMAIN IN THE 30S AT THIS TIME SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WILL
HAVE TO BE AWARE OF THE FACT THOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS MAY END UP
BEING LOWER THAN FORECAST WHICH FREQUENTLY HAPPENS DURING THESE
WINDY AND WARM DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED
SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW BEING IT IS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THERE
IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200856
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
356 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THIS HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALSO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
MILD TEMPERATURES WILL BE FELT TODAY...AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY REMAINS IN A MILD
WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH THE
WARMEST READINGS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

TUESDAY IS STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS SPEEDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH
TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE THE MAIN STORY ON TUESDAY GIVEN
THE GUSTY WINDS AND FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS. CURRENT FORECAST RH
VALUES REMAIN IN THE 30S AT THIS TIME SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR LOW
ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES. WILL
HAVE TO BE AWARE OF THE FACT THOUGH THAT DEWPOINTS MAY END UP
BEING LOWER THAN FORECAST WHICH FREQUENTLY HAPPENS DURING THESE
WINDY AND WARM DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WILL THEN BE WATCHING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. MODELS STILL SHOWING SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND ALSO INCREASED
SKY COVER.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WILL BRING SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW MODELS HINTING AT
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FAR EAST ON SUNDAY. WILL LEAVE
THE MENTION OUT FOR NOW BEING IT IS LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THERE
IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200205 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. GOING FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TRACK.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 200205 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
905 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED. GOING FORECAST OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGH PRESSURE IS ON TRACK.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 192324 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191941
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
241 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. H85 TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S...PERHAPS EVEN 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. MIXING WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS UP TOWARD THE SHORT
TERM MAX. AS WINDS PICK UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH...FIRE WEATHER MAY
BECOME A CONCERN ESPECIALLY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY WEST. WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE PAC NW
WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...HOWEVER
MOST AGREE WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SEEING PCPN. THE FRONT
DOES PUSH THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY. THE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...AND LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 191724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 191724 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191513 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 191513 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1013 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
STILL EXPECTING AN OVERALL QUIET WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.




.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 191123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 191123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
623 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGH SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGHS SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190831
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS
CELSIUS TODAY AND DECENT MIXING...EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS. SFC HIGHS SETTLES IN TONIGHT PROVIDING
FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL AIR
MASS IS RATHER MILD...THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER
GROWING NIGHTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT
A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE JAMES VALLEY...BASICALLY LEANING
ON THE COOLEST GUIDANCE VALUES. MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO DROP A DEGREE
OR TWO MORE IN SOME SPOTS. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE AN INTERESTING DAY
AS VERY MILD 850 MB TEMPS SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BREEZY/GUSTY DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR GOOD MIXING. INCREASED HIGHS EVEN MORE AS
THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY MILD DAY. WILL HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS WELL GIVEN THE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER RH VALUES.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST WHEN
THE PERIOD STARTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE...KEEPING BREEZY
CONDITIONS GOING ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN CWA. AS THE
TROUGH/FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK IN
THURSDAY BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STAYING DRY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TAF PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 190204 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HI-RES 4KM ABR AND HOP WRF MODELS DETECTING SOME LEE-OF-THE-COTEAU
DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
LEVEL WAA SEQUENCE IS OCCURRING. MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS AND WARMER
TEMPS WITHIN/ALONG FAVORED DOWN-SLOPE WIND CORRIDORS. THOSE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND/TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 190204 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
904 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HI-RES 4KM ABR AND HOP WRF MODELS DETECTING SOME LEE-OF-THE-COTEAU
DOWN-SLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WHILE LOW
LEVEL WAA SEQUENCE IS OCCURRING. MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE FORECAST
EXCEPT FOR THE LOCAL EFFECTS OF STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS AND WARMER
TEMPS WITHIN/ALONG FAVORED DOWN-SLOPE WIND CORRIDORS. THOSE MINOR
MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WIND/TEMP GRIDS...OTHERWISE
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS FINE. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182337 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
/ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE/ AT KMBG...KPIR BY LATE TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY AT KABR...KATY LATER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 182009
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 182009
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING 3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 3 TO
4 MB THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. AS
SUCH...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PICKING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. STRATUS THAT HAS PLAGUED THE EASTERN CWA FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS IS FINALLY ERODING...AND ONLY FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THE
TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH THE ENTIRE REGION BREAKING OUT TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS THAT MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT.

THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION DRY ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A RESULTANT WIND SHIFT
HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AT THE SFC A TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND COLLAPSES ON WEDNESDAY RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE. ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGING WILL ALSO HELP TO
DRAW UP UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR. HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
AND 70S THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY THE MODEL BLEND ALSO HAS
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON WED BUT THESE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE LOWERED
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 181744 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.




.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON OVER ALL BUT THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...THE
CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS
PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 181538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT...AND SUSPECT FOG WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...AND LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...SO WOULD
SUSPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS STILL OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING...HOWEVER WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING
IMPROVEMENT...AND SUSPECT FOG WILL LIFT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF THE
CWA THIS MORNING...AND LIKEWISE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW
TO RISE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO BE VERY SHALLOW...SO WOULD
SUSPECT THAT DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE ABLE TO ERODE CLOUD COVER AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH THE PACKAGE UPDATE.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 181124 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
624 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL HANG IN TIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. IFR VSBYS IN FOG
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT KPIR AS WELL. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THE CLOUDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLOUDS PUSHES EAST. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180812
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND POSSIBLY MBG.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180812
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRATUS DECK IS HANGING IN STRONG OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
AND HAS ACTUALLY MOVED BACK TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...TEMPS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK.

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST IS DEALING WITH THESE
CLOUDS...AND EXACTLY WHEN THEY DECIDE TO DEPART/BREAK UP.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THEY WILL BE AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE EASTERN CWA SO HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER QUITE A BIT. SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW THOUGH THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE QUITE THIN...SO THEY
MAY BE ABLE TO BURN OFF A BIT EASIER THAN IF THE DECK WAS THICKER.
REGARDLESS...STILL BELIEVE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE DAY FOR THE EASTERN CWA...BUT HAVE TRENDED THINGS
TO MORE PARTLY CLOUDY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE A VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS 850
MB TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOWER TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS...LIKELY RESULTING IN A WINDY DAY. AS THE TROUGH/FRONT
SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAY SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL THEN BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
BACK OVER THE PLAINS.

H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND POSSIBLY MBG.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND POSSIBLY MBG.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN/MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 180527 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND POSSIBLY MBG.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN
AROUND FROM EAST NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT
THE STRATUS CLOUDS TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN/MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
909 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND...NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
WERE BUILDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO MOBRIDGE BY MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS PIERRE LATER ON. THUS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
ALSO DEVELOP YET TONIGHT. ALSO...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND MBG. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND FROM NORTH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 180209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
909 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND...NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN
WERE BUILDING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO MOBRIDGE BY MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS PIERRE LATER ON. THUS...INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
ALSO DEVELOP YET TONIGHT. ALSO...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER INCREASED
OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND MBG. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND FROM NORTH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 172346 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND MBG. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND FROM NORTH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 172346 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND MBG. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND FROM NORTH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 172346 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND MBG. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND FROM NORTH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 172346 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
646 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEAST SD WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH AND WEST
TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS FALLING TO IFR AT ABR...ATY AND MBG. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING. OTHERWISE...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL TURN AROUND FROM NORTH
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE. EXPECT THE STRATUS CLOUDS
TO ADVECT NORTH/MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171920
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THIS MEANS
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH BREAKS IN CIGS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171920
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
220 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT...DUE TO
AREAS OF STRATUS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OVERNIGHT.

CURRENTLY...WITH LOW LEVEL CAA CONTINUING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
OVERCAST SKIES ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES BOTTLED UP IN THE 40S AND
50S...WHICH IS A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS AMID
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AND THE REGION SEES A BRIEF WARM UP SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS BACK INTO MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...WHICH IS AROUND 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. BY THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME PERIOD A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEMS...MODELS DO
SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND OF
PRODUCING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS
TRUE THROUGH ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THERE
IS SOME WEAK CAPE...SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. WHILE THE TAIL OF END OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DRY...PRETTY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DO
APPEAR BY FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THIS MEANS
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH BREAKS IN CIGS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171732 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AT THIS POINT...THERE REALLY IS LITTLE NEED FOR A MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW STRATUS AND ITS LIMITING AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPS WELL HANDLED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS...IN
CASE CLOUDS DECIDE TO BREAK UP FASTER AND/OR OVER A LARGER AREAL
EXTENT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BREEZY/WINDY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THIS EVENING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STREAM SOUTHWARD OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY. THIS MEANS
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH AT LEAST
MID AFTERNOON...WITH BREAKS IN CIGS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIKELY BE UNDER
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171450 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AT THIS POINT...THERE REALLY IS LITTLE NEED FOR A MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW STRATUS AND ITS LIMITING AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPS WELL HANDLED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS...IN
CASE CLOUDS DECIDE TO BREAK UP FASTER AND/OR OVER A LARGER AREAL
EXTENT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BREEZY/WINDY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THIS EVENING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171450 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
950 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AT THIS POINT...THERE REALLY IS LITTLE NEED FOR A MORNING UPDATE.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS LOW STRATUS AND ITS LIMITING AFFECT ON HIGH
TEMPS WELL HANDLED. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS...IN
CASE CLOUDS DECIDE TO BREAK UP FASTER AND/OR OVER A LARGER AREAL
EXTENT THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BREEZY/WINDY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING INTO THIS EVENING.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 171126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 171126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
626 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
STILL RATHER WINDY ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS. STRATUS DECK HAS ALSO TAKEN OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO STAY UP A BIT HIGHER
THAN FORECAST SO HAVE BUMPED UP THIS MORNINGS LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
THE CLOUDS AND WIND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS RATHER COOL WITH READINGS
IN THE 50S.

THE MOST DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST IS DETERMINING JUST HOW
LONG CLOUDS STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WELL AS THE
AREAL COVERAGE. THIS WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET
TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH SETTLES IN...BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
COLDER TEMPS. NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT
AS IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CLOUD
COVER WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT JUST WHEN SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEAR OUT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A NICE WARM UP AGAIN BY SUNDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RISE INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. IT APPEARS HIGHS WILL
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S WITH DRY CONDITIONS.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT
OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN GET PUSHED EASTWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL SEE SOME UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACK OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY...MAY BRING RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE CURRENTLY HINTING AT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE
FRONT.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. HIGHS IN THE 60S
WILL BE COMMON...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA TONIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LOW CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE WEST SOMETIME THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO PUSH OVER THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TODAY...DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AFTER
SUNSET.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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