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000
FXUS63 KABR 302041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COOL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

SUNDAY...BREEZY RETURN FLOW WINDS BRING LIMITED MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SATURATION TO RESULT IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. NO CAPE IS PRESENT IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT FORECASTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY. WEAK ENERGY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...BUT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ALL OF THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN US LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SLOWLY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US AND CLOSING OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL
US WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALONG WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PREVAILING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGH DEW POINTS IN
RESULTING IN SOME DEEP INSTABILITY. EACH SHORT WAVE COMING OFF THE
LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AND OVER OUR REGION WILL KICK OFF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE CHANCES IN FOR
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SHORT WAVE
COMING OVER THE REGION. AND SINCE WE ARE MOVING INTO EARLY
JUNE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 302041
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
341 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COOL DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT...BUT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA.

SUNDAY...BREEZY RETURN FLOW WINDS BRING LIMITED MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE REGION...WHICH SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SATURATION TO RESULT IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER
THE NORTHWEST CWA...ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT EXPERIENCING SOME LIGHT RAIN. NO CAPE IS PRESENT IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT FORECASTING ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OVER THE REGION BY
MONDAY. WEAK ENERGY AHEAD OF THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN VERY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA MONDAY MORNING...BUT LITTLE TO NO
RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 C...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ALL OF THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM AGREE WELL AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT AT SHOWING A WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN US LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH TO BEGIN THE PERIOD SLOWLY DIGGING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST US AND CLOSING OFF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE CENTRAL
US WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALONG WITH GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. PREVAILING SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING HIGH DEW POINTS IN
RESULTING IN SOME DEEP INSTABILITY. EACH SHORT WAVE COMING OFF THE
LARGE WESTERN TROUGH AND OVER OUR REGION WILL KICK OFF ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE CHANCES IN FOR
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH SHORT WAVE
COMING OVER THE REGION. AND SINCE WE ARE MOVING INTO EARLY
JUNE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 301752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 301752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR




000
FXUS63 KABR 301752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 301752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1252 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT
MBG...ABR AND ATY. THUS...INSERTED VICINITY SHOWERS IN FOR THESE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...MOHR





000
FXUS63 KABR 301527 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 301527 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 301527 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1027 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THE CURRENT FORECAST IS PROGRESSING WELL...NO CHANGES PLANNED WITH
THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 301202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
702 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 301202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
702 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 301202 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
702 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 300820
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 300820
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

SFC RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD EARLY THIS MORNING
AND THIS IS WHERE TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY THE COLDEST. SOME LOCATIONS
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. FURTHER EAST...TEMPS REMAIN IN THE
40S THANKS TO MORE WIND AND SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. IF THERE IS
ANY FROST THIS MORNING...ITS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER NORTH CENTRAL
SD.

THE SFC HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CWA TODAY KEEPING CONDITIONS
DRY AND COOL...WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOW 60S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE HIGHER
COTEAU REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING 60 DEGREES.

WILL BE WATCHING A SHORTWAVE TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN CWA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT THEN MOVING ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN
REGARDS TO COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF SHORTWAVE...BUT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO RAISE POPS A BIT MORE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. BARELY
ANY INSTABILITY AT ALL WITH THIS WAVE SO WENT WITH JUST SHOWERS AT
THIS POINT.

LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE PRETTY SCANT WITH
QPF. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE BY 12Z MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES FLIRTING WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG SO ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNSETTLED SUMMER LIKE PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN BUT HAVE SOME EXPECTED DIFFERENCES IN EXACT LOCATION OF
PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THEREFORE
STUCK WITH A SUPERBLEND BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO POPS.

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OPENS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS THAT
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SFC A PERSISTENT
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO MUCH OF
THE CWA. BY WEDNESDAY THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST.
COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...IN
THE 80S AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH TUE AND WED AND WILL TOP OUT IN THE
70S THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 300527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 300527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 300527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 300527 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1227 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 300219 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 300219 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND WITH WINDS LIGHTENING UP...STILL LOOKING AS THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...NO MAJOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 292329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 292329 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERENT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 291954
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERIT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 291954
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
254 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PCPN TO THE AREA IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND COOLING TEMPERATURES OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  HAD
SOME INITIAL CONCERNS ABOUT FROST BUT SUSPECT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AND JUST WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES SUCH THAT FROST
SHOULD BE PRECLUDED.  HOWEVER SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ADVECT SOUTH OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS WILL TURN PRETTY CHILLY
OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  THE COOL/DRY SFC HIGH MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  A
WAVE TRAVELING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT REALLY EXPECTING
COVERAGE TO BE ALL THAT GREAT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG
TERM. THE PERIOD INITIALLY STARTS OUT WITH RIDGING ALOFT...WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD. BY THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO RIDE
OVER THE RIDGE...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE
INHERIT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WHILE A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. ENERGY WILL KICK OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND RESULTING IN
BROADBRUSHED SUPERBLEND POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 291733 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 291733 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 291733 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR




000
FXUS63 KABR 291733 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL LINGERING FROM SOUTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
ACROSS OUR AREA OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE SWATH OF MVFR
CIGS EXTENDS WELL INTO NORTH DAKOTA HOWEVER...AND JUST HOW QUICKLY
THIS DECK OF CLOUDS EXITS THE REGION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. IT WILL
LIKELY BE LATE THIS EVENING OR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS CLEAR. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH...GRADUALLY
LOOSING THE GUSTINESS TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SERR





000
FXUS63 KABR 291501 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 291501 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 291501 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1001 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UPDATED END OF PCPN FROM NW TO
SE OVER THE REGION...ALSO KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH GIVEN
PLENTIFUL UPSTREAM CLOUDS AND COOLER AIRMASS OOZING INTO THE
REGION. UPDATES ALREADY ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 291133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 291133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 291133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 291133 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
633 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. NORTH WINDS OF 15
TO 25 KTS WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST HIGHER. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THIS MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD
OVER THE REGION BUT ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 21Z AND
0Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 290840
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 290840
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS BEING UNDER CUT BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT
WILL PUSH THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THIS CWA BY MID
AFTERNOON OR SOONER. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH SIX HOUR PRESSURE
RISES OF 7 MB SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERNLY WINDS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS
ACTUALLY SHOWING HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH
A GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PATCHY FROST BY SATURDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND 36 DEGREES...WHICH GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE/2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...AND 850 MB TEMPS OF 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW...FROSTY
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO MENTION
FROST IN FORECAST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP WEST OF THIS CWA. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH THIS IN THE UPPER
50S...TO THE MID 60S.

SUNDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING COOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. SOME MODELS...LIKE THE CANADIAN...ACTUALLY PRODUCES
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S. THIS IS LIKELY TOO COLD. THE NAM ON THE
OTHER HAND IS LIKELY TOO WARM AS IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THIS
CWA. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES AND CONSALL FOR PCPN.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER RIDGING AND A PERSISTENT SFC LEE SIDE TROF WILL MEAN WARM
TEMPS AND CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES AND THE UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST ON WEDNESDAY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 290544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...WITH JUST SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
IN A FEW PLACES. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOVEMENT ON THE STORMS THAT
FLOODING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE





000
FXUS63 KABR 290544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...WITH JUST SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
IN A FEW PLACES. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOVEMENT ON THE STORMS THAT
FLOODING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 290544 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1244 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...WITH JUST SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
IN A FEW PLACES. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOVEMENT ON THE STORMS THAT
FLOODING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY
SETTLE IN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE




000
FXUS63 KABR 290218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...WITH JUST SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
IN A FEW PLACES. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOVEMENT ON THE STORMS THAT
FLOODING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY SETTLE IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 290218 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
918 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 916 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TO THE NORTHEAST. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
HAVE ENDED...WITH JUST SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE
IN A FEW PLACES. LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOVEMENT ON THE STORMS THAT
FLOODING CONCERN IS DIMINISHING. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY SETTLE IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 282330 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY SETTLE IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 282330 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
630 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TRACKS EASTWARD. MVFR/IFR STRATUS MAY SETTLE IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 282021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 282021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 282021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 282021
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
321 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOT MUCH TO ADD
TO PREVIOUS UPDATE AND EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. PEAK MLCAPE VALUES
CENTER NEAR ABERDEEN AT AROUND 2500J/KG AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A
FEW WEEK UPDRAFTS DEVELOP. THIS IS WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...AND ALSO IS IN LINE WITH HIGH RES GUIDANCE WHICH DEPICTS
RATHER SCATTERED/UNORGANIZED CONVECTION THANKS TO POOR UPPER FORCING
AND LACK OF A DEFINED SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH A MINOR Q VECTOR BULLSEYE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A WEAK JET. BY THAT POINT...LOW LEVEL FORCING IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED...SO ANTICIPATE A CONTINUATION OF WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS. THE
ONLY ISSUE IS THE WEAK WIND FIELD AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WHICH
SUGGEST A SLOW STORM MOTION. WILL KEEP MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE UNDERCUTS THE UPPER TROF BY MORNING...PUSHING
SHOWERS SOUTH. THE COMBINATION OF A 7MB/6HR PRESSURE INCREASE AND A
10MB GRADIENT NE TO SW ACROSS THE STATE...ALONG WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 14C AT 06Z TO AROUND 4C BY 21Z WILL RESULT
IN CHILLY/BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY
SATURDAY AM AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. GUIDANCE HAS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 SO MAY HAVE TO
MENTION FROST IN FUTURE UPDATES. VERY LIMITED TEMPERATURE RECOVERY
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO NORTHEAST FLOW.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION AS
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVERY DAY OR SO. HOWEVER AS WE
HEAD TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ADVECT A PRETTY HEALTHY EML
EAST OFF THE WESTERN HIGHS PLAINS.  SO PART OF THE PERIOD MAY BE
CAPPED.  COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ENTER THE PICTURE AS TROFFING EDGES
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE WEEK.  THATS WHEN RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST.  TEMPERATURES WILL START THE PERIOD A LITTLE
UNDER NORMAL...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 281745 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG
20-22Z AS TIME OF INITIALIZATION THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK
CAP. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL ADD A LAYER OF CHAOS. PLUS...SHEAR
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 TO 30KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 500MB...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TO TOP THINGS OFF...BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT IS IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
SLOW...AND PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SUGGESTING TRAINING
MAY OCCUR. ONCE DIABATIC HEATING FALLS OFF AND STORMS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK




000
FXUS63 KABR 281745 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG
20-22Z AS TIME OF INITIALIZATION THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK
CAP. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL ADD A LAYER OF CHAOS. PLUS...SHEAR
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 TO 30KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 500MB...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TO TOP THINGS OFF...BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT IS IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
SLOW...AND PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SUGGESTING TRAINING
MAY OCCUR. ONCE DIABATIC HEATING FALLS OFF AND STORMS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS
IT WILL BE VFR. LATE TONIGHT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK





000
FXUS63 KABR 281625 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG
20-22Z AS TIME OF INITIALIZATION THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK
CAP. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL ADD A LAYER OF CHAOS. PLUS...SHEAR
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 TO 30KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 500MB...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TO TOP THINGS OFF...BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT IS IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
SLOW...AND PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SUGGESTING TRAINING
MAY OCCUR. ONCE DIABATIC HEATING FALLS OFF AND STORMS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281625 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG
20-22Z AS TIME OF INITIALIZATION THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK
CAP. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL ADD A LAYER OF CHAOS. PLUS...SHEAR
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 TO 30KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 500MB...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TO TOP THINGS OFF...BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT IS IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
SLOW...AND PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SUGGESTING TRAINING
MAY OCCUR. ONCE DIABATIC HEATING FALLS OFF AND STORMS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 281625 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG
20-22Z AS TIME OF INITIALIZATION THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK
CAP. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL ADD A LAYER OF CHAOS. PLUS...SHEAR
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 TO 30KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 500MB...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TO TOP THINGS OFF...BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT IS IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
SLOW...AND PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SUGGESTING TRAINING
MAY OCCUR. ONCE DIABATIC HEATING FALLS OFF AND STORMS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281625 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1125 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN. ADDED A MENTION OF SHOWERS
WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COUNTIES.

MAIN FOCUS IS AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS THE SURFACE TROF SLINKS
INTO NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. HIGH RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PEG
20-22Z AS TIME OF INITIALIZATION THANKS TO AMPLE
SUNSHINE...THOUGH NOT JUST ALONG THE TROF AXIS THANKS TO A WEAK
CAP. HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT...BUT PRE
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL ADD A LAYER OF CHAOS. PLUS...SHEAR
APPEARS RELATIVELY WEAK WITH ONLY 20 TO 30KTS BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 500MB...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. TO TOP THINGS OFF...BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT IS IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LIKELY END UP LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS FOR
ADDING THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN...STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
SLOW...AND PARALLEL WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SUGGESTING TRAINING
MAY OCCUR. ONCE DIABATIC HEATING FALLS OFF AND STORMS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING...UPPER DYNAMICS BEGIN TO IMPROVE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO ROUND OUT RAINFALL TOTALS BY FRIDAY
AM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 281209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
709 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 281209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
709 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
709 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 281209 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
709 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THIS MORNING AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...REACHING THE KATY TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OUTSIDE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. LOOK FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR
VISBIES IN THE HEAVIEST/STRONGEST OF CELLS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 280910
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY
TRACK FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280910
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
410 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DECREASED DRAMATICALLY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN RECENT
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE JAMES VALLEY AND HI RES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST INCREASING COVERAGE THROUGH 12Z. THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN BUT
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE ON THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FURTHER
BACK TO THE WEST. HI RES MODELS ALL SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THE CAM SOLUTIONS SHOW A PRETTY
HEALTHY LOOKING LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DECENT INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000
J/KG. ALTHOUGH...SHEAR IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT PULSE TYPE AND MULTICELLULAR ACTIVITY. SOME STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE.

COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE CWA AS 925/850 MB TEMPS FALL SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH
THE DAY. HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT COOL TEMPERATURES. LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY STABLE AS FAR AS
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY GOES. HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TO
START...BUT THEN GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW AND SOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIR FOR LATE MAY/EARLY JUNE. 925HPA/850HPA THERMAL PROGS WOULD
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S IN SOME
LOCATIONS...COMPLETE WITH WARM MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION TEMPS OF
+10C TO +12C. THERE SHOULD BE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AROUND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE NEEDED FOCUS FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION...WITH PLENTY OF
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY AROUND MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEEMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MIGHT HOLD THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO BE AROUND. THE MID-LEVEL CAP MAY END UP BEING ERODED
ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY
TRACK FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 280545 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AFFECTING THE COUNTIES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BIGGEST THREATS LOOK TO BE
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
IN MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS
IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY
TRACK FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280545 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1245 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AFFECTING THE COUNTIES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BIGGEST THREATS LOOK TO BE
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
IN MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS
IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN AREA OF RAIN...ALONG WITH A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS...WILL SLOWLY
TRACK FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THE
VFR CATEGORY. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...DORN




000
FXUS63 KABR 280220 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AFFECTING THE COUNTIES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BIGGEST THREATS LOOK TO BE
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
IN MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS
IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER
A QUIET MORNING ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 280220 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
920 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW AFFECTING THE COUNTIES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. BIGGEST THREATS LOOK TO BE
OCCASIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. NO OTHER CHANGES
MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
IN MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS
IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER
A QUIET MORNING ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 272328 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
IN MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS
IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER
A QUIET MORNING ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN




000
FXUS63 KABR 272328 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
628 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS
SUGGEST THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE
EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT
IN MUCAPE OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...EXPECT A PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS
IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE...DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. AFTER
A QUIET MORNING ON THURSDAY...LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BUT BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...PARKIN





000
FXUS63 KABR 272050
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WEAK SHOWERS OVERHEAD EXIST THANKS TO AMPLE SUN AND COOL MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH INCREASED MID/HIGH
CLOUDS AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. FOCUS SHIFTS WEST RIVER
WHERE MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESPONSIBLE FOR A FEW ELEVATED
SHOWERS...PROBABLY NOT REACHING THE GROUND HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WITHING UNR CWA THOUGH...AND MODELS SUGGEST
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH AND EAST AS A WAVE EJECTS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A RATHER TIGHT GRADIENT IN MUCAPE
OVERNIGHT...SO AS STORMS PUSH INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...EXPECT A
PRECIPITOUS DROP OFF IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL
DEPICTED IN OUR LATEST SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...DESPITE
THE EXISTENCE OF A 40KT LOW LEVEL JET AND UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG
MUCAPE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS A SECOND
WAVE EJECTS INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...THOUGH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ALSO
POSSIBLE. MLCAPE VALUES TOP 2000 J/KG...WITHIN A LIGHT
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. COOLER AIR UNDERCUTS OUR UNSTABLE
AIRMASS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY/COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS DURING THE LONG TERM WITH THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BRINGING A COOL AND
DRY SATURDAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AS WARMER AIR
RETURNS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT
WEEK. THUS...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...THE
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST SLIDING OVER
OUR REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM BRINGING OFF AND ON CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING IN BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. A COUPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH WILL
BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION WHICH MAY AFFECT THE
TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR




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