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000
FXUS63 KABR 290509 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1109 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OK SHAPE. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR NEARLY STEADY OR EVENING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME LURKING LOW CLOUDS NEAR KATY COULD ADVECT
BACK IN LATER TNT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 290509 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1109 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OK SHAPE. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR NEARLY STEADY OR EVENING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER SOME LURKING LOW CLOUDS NEAR KATY COULD ADVECT
BACK IN LATER TNT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 290239 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
839 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OK SHAPE. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR NEARLY STEADY OR EVENING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 290239 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
839 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OK SHAPE. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR NEARLY STEADY OR EVENING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290239 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
839 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OK SHAPE. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR NEARLY STEADY OR EVENING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 290239 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
839 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN OK SHAPE. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR NEARLY STEADY OR EVENING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. ONLY MINOR UPDATES EXPECTED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 282319 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 282319 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
519 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOW MELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 282117 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN










000
FXUS63 KABR 282117 CCA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
317 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN









000
FXUS63 KABR 282100
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 282100
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY. AS
SUCH...A STRONG INVERSION HAS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG
IS A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FOG DO APPEAR TO EXTEND FROM EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER WHEN IT
COMES TO THE FOG POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF
MODELS ARE SHOWING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OUT WEST /SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 1 DEGREE/ AS COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM
/SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 10 DEGREES/. GIVEN THE
DRY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS...WOULD TENT TO HEDGE TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. PERHAPS SNOWMELT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA
/KPIR WAS CARRYING AN INCH OF SNOW DEPTH AS OF THE MORNING REPORT/
CAN PROVIDE THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE NEEDED. HOWEVER FURTHER NORTH
TOWARD KMBG...OBS ARE COMING IN WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND. HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...DID BLANKET
THE REGION UNDER A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE
NEXT ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...HIGH
TEMPS WILL LIKELY PEAK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND FALL QUICKLY
THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR DAYS 2 THROUGH 7 INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC PLUNGE
WRINGS OUT ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WAY BELOW NORMAL
FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THEN LOW LEVEL WAA IS PROGGED FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY...COMPLETE WITH 0.5KM S-SWRLY WINDS IN THE GFS/ECMWF
OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS OVER THAT DOWN SLOPE WIND FAVORED REGION OF
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. PERHAPS NOT AN IDEAL SCENARIO IN WHICH TO
BLOW SNOW AROUND IF TEMPERATURES CAN ACTUALLY WARM UP CLOSE TO OR
ABOVE FREEZING SATURDAY. A SIGNAL OF 50+KNOTS SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS
COULD BE IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH IN THE LEE OF THE PRAIRIE COTEAU
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHILE SUPER COLD AIR APPEARS TO GET
BOTTLED UP TO THE NORTH OF THIS CWA. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281727 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR THIS MORNING...FREEZING PRECIP
IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS ANY
PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND IS VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. DID
CONTINUE THE SPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS JUST TO GIVE EVERYONE A
HEAD UP THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS.
BESIDES A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND DIURNAL TEMP GRIDS...THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS OFF
AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281727 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1127 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR THIS MORNING...FREEZING PRECIP
IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS ANY
PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND IS VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. DID
CONTINUE THE SPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS JUST TO GIVE EVERYONE A
HEAD UP THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS.
BESIDES A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND DIURNAL TEMP GRIDS...THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS OFF
AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS HOWEVER...WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10KTS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281638 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR THIS MORNING...FREEZING PRECIP
IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS ANY
PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND IS VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. DID
CONTINUE THE SPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS JUST TO GIVE EVERYONE A
HEAD UP THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS.
BESIDES A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND DIURNAL TEMP GRIDS...THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS OFF
AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN SHORT DURATION WITH LITTLE
ICE ACCUMULATION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281638 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1038 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR THIS MORNING...FREEZING PRECIP
IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA. HOWEVER...BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR RETURNS...OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS...IT APPEARS ANY
PRECIP THAT IS REACHING THE GROUND IS VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF. DID
CONTINUE THE SPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS JUST TO GIVE EVERYONE A
HEAD UP THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY PATCHES ON ROADWAYS.
BESIDES A FEW TWEAKS TO THE POP AND DIURNAL TEMP GRIDS...THE GOING
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS OFF
AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN SHORT DURATION WITH LITTLE
ICE ACCUMULATION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 281122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS
OFF AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN SHORT DURATION WITH LITTLE
ICE ACCUMULATION.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 281122
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
522 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS
OFF AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.




&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PASS THROUGH KMBG/KABR TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. ANY FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN SHORT DURATION WITH LITTLE
ICE ACCUMULATION.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS
OFF AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NO LONGER IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.
VFR FLYING WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AS ALL THE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD TAKE A JOG SOUTH AND CLIP THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS. BUT AT THE MOMENT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG
SHOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS ACROSS CLOUD-FREE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
353 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS IN THE
20S AND 30S. UNFORTUNATELY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAA WITH A FEW SPOTS IN WESTERN ND REPORTING UNKNOWN PCPN. THE
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH SUGGEST THE FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING E-SE ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THUS HAVE ADDED SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR THE FREEZING
RAIN.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL LIKELY BE COLDER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. DEEPER SNOW COVER OVER MOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA ALONG WITH WEAK MIXING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS BELOW FREEZING TODAY.

SATURDAY WILL SEE BETTER MIXING WINDS AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BEFORE FALLING
IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPS AT 925 MB PLUMMET TO
THE TEENS BELOW...TO THE LOWER 20S BELOW ZERO BY 12Z SUNDAY. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY RANGE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH FAR
ENOUGH EAST THAT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN
TO DOMINATE THE FLOW MORE CONSISTENTLY. THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES
PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW IN THE EXTENDED...ONE TO START THINGS
OFF AND THE SECOND FOR TUESDAY...HOWEVER NEITHER OF THESE FEATURES
BRINGS MUCH MOISTURE POTENTIAL TO THE REGION. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVING
OVERHEAD MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1045MB HIGH. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
SOUTH...WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE ARCTIC
BOUNDARY DROPS BACK ACROSS THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A LONGER
DURATION WARM UP IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NO LONGER IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.
VFR FLYING WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AS ALL THE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD TAKE A JOG SOUTH AND CLIP THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS. BUT AT THE MOMENT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG
SHOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS ACROSS CLOUD-FREE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280520 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO INDICATION
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OCCURRING...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
REMAINS AS WAA BETWEEN 850HPA AND 700HPA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA. SKIES ARE CLEARING OFF BACK TO THE
WEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A VIGIL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY STEADY...OR SLOWING WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES NEEDED RIGHT NOW TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NO LONGER IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.
VFR FLYING WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AS ALL THE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD TAKE A JOG SOUTH AND CLIP THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS. BUT AT THE MOMENT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG
SHOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS ACROSS CLOUD-FREE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280520 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1120 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO INDICATION
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OCCURRING...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
REMAINS AS WAA BETWEEN 850HPA AND 700HPA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA. SKIES ARE CLEARING OFF BACK TO THE
WEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A VIGIL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY STEADY...OR SLOWING WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES NEEDED RIGHT NOW TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST AND IS NO LONGER IMPACTING ANY TERMINAL.
VFR FLYING WEATHER HAS RETURNED...AS ALL THE MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY STAYING OFF TO THE NORTH. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
OF THESE SUB-VFR CIGS COULD TAKE A JOG SOUTH AND CLIP THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS. BUT AT THE MOMENT THAT SEEMS LIKE A LONG
SHOT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG OR LOW
STRATUS ACROSS CLOUD-FREE AREAS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280319 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO INDICATION
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OCCURRING...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
REMAINS AS WAA BETWEEN 850HPA AND 700HPA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA. SKIES ARE CLEARING OFF BACK TO THE
WEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A VIGIL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY STEADY...OR SLOWING WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES NEEDED RIGHT NOW TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THE ONLY THINGS
THAT APPEAR SEMI-CERTAIN IS THAT VFR/MVFR LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIGHT
NOW...AND WILL AFFECT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW FIELD IS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THIS REGION. BEYOND THAT...IT IS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL EMERGE ONCE THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OFF LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE
BACK PEDDLED JUST A BIT ON THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBIES
PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST...AND JUST MENTIONING SOME MVFR FOG AT
KPIR/KMBG LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 280319 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
919 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED OVER TO THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO INDICATION
OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OCCURRING...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
REMAINS AS WAA BETWEEN 850HPA AND 700HPA CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
TOWARD WESTERN MINNESOTA. SKIES ARE CLEARING OFF BACK TO THE
WEST...SO WILL MAINTAIN A VIGIL FOR FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY STEADY...OR SLOWING WARMING OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA. NO CHANGES NEEDED RIGHT NOW TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD
FORECAST.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY
SUNDAY...HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THE ONLY THINGS
THAT APPEAR SEMI-CERTAIN IS THAT VFR/MVFR LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIGHT
NOW...AND WILL AFFECT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW FIELD IS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THIS REGION. BEYOND THAT...IT IS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL EMERGE ONCE THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OFF LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE
BACK PEDDLED JUST A BIT ON THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBIES
PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST...AND JUST MENTIONING SOME MVFR FOG AT
KPIR/KMBG LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280016 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THE ONLY THINGS
THAT APPEAR SEMI-CERTAIN IS THAT VFR/MVFR LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIGHT
NOW...AND WILL AFFECT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW FIELD IS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THIS REGION. BEYOND THAT...IT IS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL EMERGE ONCE THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OFF LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE
BACK PEDDLED JUST A BIT ON THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBIES
PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST...AND JUST MENTIONING SOME MVFR FOG AT
KPIR/KMBG LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 280016 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE
LOWERING STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING. MAY HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS
COOLER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SET OF TAFS. THE ONLY THINGS
THAT APPEAR SEMI-CERTAIN IS THAT VFR/MVFR LIGHT SNOW IS WORKING
ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA RIGHT
NOW...AND WILL AFFECT THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW FIELD IS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY SHIFTED
OFF TO THE EAST OF THIS REGION. BEYOND THAT...IT IS A LITTLE
UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL EMERGE ONCE THE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR OFF LATER TONIGHT. FOR NOW...HAVE
BACK PEDDLED JUST A BIT ON THE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBIES
PREVIOUSLY BEING FORECAST...AND JUST MENTIONING SOME MVFR FOG AT
KPIR/KMBG LATER TONIGHT ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 272112
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE LOWERING
STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. MAY
HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO ABR AND
ATY. AS THIS WARMER AND MOIST AIR ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT...STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THIS AIR MOVING OVER SNOW COVER...EXPECT
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. THE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY THIS EVENING AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES
THE COOLER AIR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 272112
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
312 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
WAA CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO NORTHEAST
SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD A FEW FLURRIES AT
ABR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RADAR ECHOES TO CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS AREA AS WAA LIFT INCREASES
OVER THE RETREATING COLD AIR. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
PUSHES EAST TONIGHT. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
INCREASED THEM SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THERE COULD BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. ALSO...WITH THE WARMER AND HIGHER
DEW POINT AIR LIFTING OVER THE SNOW COVER...THERE SHOULD BE LOWERING
STRATUS TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. MAY
HAVE TO PUT SOME FOG IN THE FORECAST.

ON FRIDAY...WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...HIGH LOW LEVEL RH AND A
STRONG INVERSION...THE STRATUS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO PUSH OUT OF THE
EASTERN CWA. FOR TONIGHT WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND WAA...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEARLY STEADY OR RISE A LITTLE BY MORNING.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH THE LOW CLOUDS BREAKING UP/PUSHING OUT
OF THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE TRICKY
WITH NOT MUCH WIND OVER THE SNOW COVER WITH A LOWER SUN ANGLE AND
LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY HOLDING IN. LATEST GUIDANCE WAS COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHEAST CWA. KEPT WITH MAINLY 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SOME UPPER 20S FAR NORTHEAST.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE BRIEF WARM UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT COMES BARRELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN
FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE LOOKING PRETTY DRY AT THIS POINT.

BY MONDAY MORNING 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 10 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MODELS DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE HIGH...SO WIND SPEEDS COULD PLAY A FACTOR. HOWEVER...EVEN
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE TEMPS TREND
COOLER IN THE COMING DAYS. GUSTY RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE CWA. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO TRANSPORT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.

MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.
THEY HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN
WORKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND INFLUENCING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY OR CONSENSUS ON
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS ENERGY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO ABR AND
ATY. AS THIS WARMER AND MOIST AIR ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT...STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THIS AIR MOVING OVER SNOW COVER...EXPECT
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. THE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY THIS EVENING AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES
THE COOLER AIR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271800 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1200 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

WARM FRONT OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER OUT WEST TO
ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WITH TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW CLIMB. GOOD
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO THE LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTHWEST. WITH SOME UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
BIS RADAR ECHOES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE OCCURRING IN CORSON
COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH THIS
WARM FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME AND ADJUSTED THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A WARM FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO ABR AND
ATY. AS THIS WARMER AND MOIST AIR ADVECTS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND NIGHT...STRATUS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT
MOST LOCATIONS. WITH THIS AIR MOVING OVER SNOW COVER...EXPECT
SOME IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. THE MODELS ALL
SUGGEST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ABR AND ATY THIS EVENING AS THE WARMER AIR OVERRIDES
THE COOLER AIR.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271704 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1104 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER OUT WEST TO
ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WITH TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW CLIMB. GOOD
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO THE LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTHWEST. WITH SOME UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
BIS RADAR ECHOES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE OCCURRING IN CORSON
COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH THIS
WARM FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME AND ADJUSTED THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.








&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME SPOTS OF IFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WILL SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271704 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1104 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
WARM FRONT OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT CLOUD COVER OUT WEST TO
ALSO MOVE/DEVELOP EAST WITH TEMPERATURES ON A SLOW CLIMB. GOOD
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY RANGING FROM
AROUND 10 DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TO THE LOWER 30S FAR
SOUTHWEST. WITH SOME UPSTREAM OBS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG WITH
BIS RADAR ECHOES...SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY BE OCCURRING IN CORSON
COUNTY LATE THIS MORNING. STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX WITH THIS
WARM FRONT. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME AND ADJUSTED THE WEATHER
THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.








&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME SPOTS OF IFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WILL SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 271123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME SPOTS OF IFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WILL SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 271123 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
523 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MAINLY MVFR CIGS...WITH SOME SPOTS OF IFR CIGS AT
TIMES...WILL SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT VSBYS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED. THE LOWER
CIGS WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE EAST TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 270957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 270957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 270957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





000
FXUS63 KABR 270957
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
357 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PRECIPITATION TYPE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT
WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION HAS PRODUCED BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH MANY LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW...TO THE 20S BELOW ZERO. THE COLDEST
READING ARE LOCATED OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION TODAY ALLOWING FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
WAA WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER MONTANA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT RUNNING DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODEL SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND WPC ALL SUGGEST THE
DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE SNOW TODAY. HOWEVER BASED ON THE MID LEVEL
WARM PUSH AFTER 0Z...MIXED PCPN IS POSSIBLE. NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MIXED PCPN. LITTLE TO NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WARM AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ONE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND ANOTHER TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE JUST TRACKED ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WHEN THE PERIOD STARTS. THE MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THIS HIGH REACHES THE AREA...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 12
HOURS FASTER THAN THE GEM OR ECMWF. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR REACHES THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL THEN BE DOMINANT
OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS IT THEN GETS PUSHED EAST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOK TO
TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DRY
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES BACK
IN ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER THAN THE SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THEN BEGINS TO MOVE
BACK IN WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE TEENS AND 20S...AND IN THE 20S
AND 30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 270528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN








000
FXUS63 KABR 270528 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1128 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER ON
THURSDAY SOME MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 262334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
534 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS WHILE
THE KATY/KABR TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 262334 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
534 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE THE KPIR/KMBG TERMINALS WHILE
THE KATY/KABR TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
TNT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 262146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH...NOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. MODELS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE SD/ND/MN
BORDER BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND
FRESH SNOW WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOW
SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS BELOW ZERO BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. FURTHER
WEST HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER AND LESS SNOWFALL SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. RETURN FLOW WINDS AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL BE WARMER. IN
FACT...THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA TO NEAR 35 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.
ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT
IN LIGHT SNOWFALL...SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. DUE TO THE STRONG PUSH OF MID LEVEL WARM AIR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...SREF PROBABILITIES AND MODEL
DOMINANT PTYPE PROGS ALL SUPPORTS THIS OCCURRENCE. THEREFORE WENT
AHEAD AND THREW THE WINTRY MIX INTO THE FORECAST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...A VERY BRIEF WINDOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRENCE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA...AND NO ICE
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WITH CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...OR EVEN RISING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE MODELS SHOW PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WITH SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
LOCATIONS OF SURFACE FEATURES. THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH OUR
REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR/PACIFIC AIR DOMINATING THE REGION WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT WEST RIDING ALONG A SOUTHWARD MOVING
ARCTIC BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE CWA. THE SNOW COVER AND WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH DAYS. WE MAY ALSO BE LOOKING
AT SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG WITH THE SNOW MELT OCCURRING
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...AN ARCTIC
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION PROBABLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN BEHIND IT. THE ARCTIC AIR
AND COLD BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH MUCH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FOR THIS TIME...LOWS WILL BE MAINLY BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PUSH EAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH WARMER AIR AGAIN RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL GET BACK CLOSE
TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BY TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY DRY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261540 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
940 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261126 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
526 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LIGHT SNOW WILL EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BY 15Z. AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MAY STILL
SEE SOME GUSTY NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. BY EARLY EVENING...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN







000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






000
FXUS63 KABR 261001
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE AT KABR/KATY AS SNOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT
THEN DISSIPATE BY NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BROWN-
     CLARK-CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-
     SPINK.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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